A portion of positive news for the dollar, or before the recession is far away

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The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to an almost 49-year low, indicating a still strong labor market.

According to the Ministry of Labor, the initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 216,000 applications for the week ending December 22. The index falls in three of the last four weeks and almost reached the 49-year low of 202,000 hits reached during the week ending September 15. Economists surveyed by Reuters predicted an increase in the number of applications to 217,000. The average number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, considered the best indicator of trends in the labor market, fell by 4,750 to 218,000 applications. The total number of people regularly receiving unemployment benefits also fell by 4,000 to 1.70 million people.

These data should reassure investors a little and support the dollar. Recall market concerns intensified after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week for the fourth time this year. Despite the fact that the regulator predicts a smaller number of rate hikes next year and signals that the tightening cycle is coming to an end in the conditions of financial market volatility and slowing global growth, many believe that even this will be much.

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Analysis of Bitcoin for December 27, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite corrective and volatile at the edge of 200 EMA after breaking below $4,000 area with a daily close recently. The price has recently formed Bullish Regular Divergence in the process while straddling at the edge of 200 EMA but the bullish momentum is still quite indecisive as the price remains below $4,000 area with a daily close. The resistance area of $4,000 is being covered by the Kumo Cloud resistance as well while Tenkan, Kijun and 20 EMA being the closest of all the resistances at the current price placement. The price is expected to push higher if it manages to break above $4,000 area with a daily close which will lead the price towards $4,250 and later towards $4,500 area.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE and VOLATILE

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Technical analysis for GBPUSD for December 27, 2018

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Technical outlook:

An hourly chart has been depicted for GBP/USD for a short- and medium-term outlook. The single currency pair has been rallying from the 1.2480 levels, and it has formed a strong support at the 1.2530 levels as highlighted here. We have considered the rally between the levels of 1.2530 and 1.2740 in order to project a short-term trade setup and targets. As can be seen here, the Fibonacci 0.618 support is close to the 1.2610 levels, along with previous support zone just below the 1.2600 mark. It is quite possible that the prices may find support here and produce a bullish reversal going forward. If the above structure unfolds accordingly, bulls will likely take control and push the prices higher towards at least the 1.2850 levels. Ideally, the prices should remain above the 1.2530 and 1.2480 levels.

Trading plan:

Buy between the 1.2600/30 levels with a stop loss order below 1.2530, and the target of 1.2850.

Good luck!

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Fundamental analysis of AUD/JPY for December 27, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bearish pressure recently which had an impulsive bullish pressure with a daily close yesterday above 78.50 area. AUD managed to push against JPY yesterday in an impulsive manner but failed to sustain it today.

Despite JPY having worse economic reports recently, it managed to rise against AUD with certain impulsiveness today which indicates the level of volatility and indecisive pressure in the market. Recently the BOJ Core CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.5% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.6% along with the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Besides, BOJ Governor Kuroda's speech which was quite neutral for Japan's economy for the immediate effect but optimistic in some areas. Today Japan's Housing Starts report was published with a significant decrease to -0.6% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at -0.2%. Additionally, tomorrow Tokyo Core CPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.9% from the previous value of 1.0%. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 2.4% while the retail sales is expected to decrease to 2.1% from the previous value of 3.6% and the prelim industrial production report is expected to show a decrease as well to -1.7% from the previous value of 2.9%.

On the other hand, on the occasion of Christmas and Boxing Day, this week there were no economic reports or events on the AUD side leading the currency to lose certain grounds against JPY in the process.

As of the current scenario, JPY is currently gaining momentum quite impulsively against AUD but dovish expectation for the upcoming economic reports and worse results may lead to certain weakness of JPY in the coming days leading to certain short-term gains on the AUD side.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure after having a strong bullish candle pushing the price above 78.50 area yesterday with a daily close. The price is still expected to push higher but a daily close above 78.50 is expected to lead to an impulsive bullish pressure. As the trend is bearish, the bullish momentum is expected to be a pullback in the trend as the price continues its bearish pressure in the future. As the price remains below 80.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 75.00, 77.00

RESISTANCE: 78.50, 80.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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What will happen to the dollar in 2019?

In 2018, the US currency became the growth leader among its main competitors. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index has increased by almost 5 percent. However, concerns about the slowdown in US GDP growth and the rate of normalization of monetary policy pursued by the Fed have added political risks. Therefore the question arises: will the "American" not be able to lose the profit in 2019?

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Currently, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.14 mark, weighing the chances of completing the Fed interest rate increase cycle and the weakening of the European and world economies.

The American Central Bank is still planning to raise the interest rate in the first half of next year, which could support the dollar. However, the process of tightening monetary policy may slow down, due to which the greenback risks being in limbo. At the last meeting of this year, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that decisions on the rate are not predetermined and will be taken based on the incoming data.

It is possible that the dollar will remain under pressure until the statistical data or the Federal Reserve signals to investors that the time has come for a rate hike, which still allows for the growth of the American currency.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market now estimates the probability of a rise in the federal funds rate in 2019 only at 22%. If it really remains unchanged at 2.5% level and the ECB starts to normalize the monetary policy from September. Then in the period of May-August, EUR / USD bulls will have an excellent reason for the attack. Supporting factors for the euro including the improving statistics for the euro area, the "soft" Brexit, the completion of the budget crisis in Italy, as well as the defeat of euro skeptics in the EU parliamentary elections.

As for the US economy, its growth is likely to slow down next year. However, global GDP may grow even slower than the US. In such conditions, as a rule, greenback feels quite confident.

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ECB economic forecasts for 2019

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In 2019, the global economy should slow down, the ECB said, noting that the regulator still expects price increases.

Literate investors are already preparing for a slowdown in economic growth around the world, mainly due to higher borrowing costs for dollar debtors and trade tensions between the United States and China. The ECB has supported these expectations in its regular economic bulletin, but at the same time, it is confident that "inflationary pressure will continue" both in the world and in the eurozone.

"Looking into the future, we expect that in 2019, global economic activity will slow down and remain stable in the future. We expect that global inflation pressure will slowly grow as reserve capacity decreases," the ECB said.

The bulletin does not contradict the recent decision of the ECB to stop the program of buying bonds in the amount of 2.6 trillion euros (2.96 trillion dollars) but to continue to reinvest the money that it receives from the redeemed securities. Some have criticized this decision as untimely in view of the weakening economy. But the ECB, whose sole purpose is to reach the inflation target, confirmed its confidence that the base prices in the eurozone will continue to rise.

"Core inflation is expected to gradually grow in the medium term, with the support of the ECB's monetary policy measures, continued economic growth and wage growth," the ECB said.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on December 27. Pound buyers intensified at the bottom of the channel

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Pound buyers did not fight for the resistance of 1.2668 in the first half of the day and decided to show themselves in the support area of 1.2620, which I paid attention to in my morning review. At the moment, the task is to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.2668, which will lead to a more powerful upward impulse in a pound with a test of the upper limit of the side channel of 1.2714, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a re-decline in the area of 1.2621, the pound may be left without the support of buyers, therefore, in such a scenario, it is best to consider new long positions to rebound from a low of 1.2567.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers kept resistance 1.2668, however at the first attempt they could not break below the support of 1.2621. The task for the second half of the day will be a repeated decrease in this range and its breakdown, which will lead to a larger sale to the area of 1.2567, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above the resistance of 1.2668 in the afternoon, short positions can be considered to rebound from a high of 1.2714.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which more indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP / USD. 27th of December. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Trading on the pound calm and without sudden movements

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -14.8919

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to calm trading without a certain direction. After completing Murray's level of +1/8, the pair turned down and began a downward movement, breaking the moving average line. Thus, today a downward movement is a little more likely, however, it should be noted that in recent days the pair has overcome the moving for the third time, but each time could not develop a downward movement. In the conditions of increased sensitivity of the market, as well as the festive status of the days remaining until the New Year, such a movement is quite expected and logical. No new data on Brexit or from Theresa May for the past day has been reported. Thus, although the instrument volatility has not decreased to a minimum, nevertheless, there are no weighty reasons for active trading among traders now. Today in the United States, there will be several insignificant publications. Theoretically, they can slightly affect the movement of the pair, but it is unlikely to affect its volatility. The reports are secondary, so there is no special reaction to wait. We believe that it will be better to resume trading in pairs after the holidays. Although the weakness of the movement and the absence of a pronounced trend can persist until a vote is taken in the British Parliament on Brexit.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2634

S2 - 1.2604

S3 - 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2665

R2 - 1.2695

R3 - 1.2726

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has fixed below the MA, therefore at the moment, the minimal lots with targets at 1.2604 and 1.2573 are relevant. Opening any position is associated with increased risks, so before the end of the holidays, you can not enter the market.

Buy positions can be opened no earlier than price fixing above the moving average line. In this case, the long positions will become relevant also in small lots with targets 1.2695 and 1.2726.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Bitcoin analysis for December 27, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found that BTC broke the upward channel in the background, which is a sign that there is a potential change in the trend direction from bullish to bearish. I also found that there is strong supply in the background and there is no buying pressure to react to this strong supply. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $3,392 and $3,110.

Support/Resistance

$3,927– Intraday resistance

$3,642– Intraday support

$3,392 – Objective target 1

$3,110 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of gold for December 27, 2018

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Recently, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,276.25. Anyway, according to the H4 time frame, I have found that there is potential overbought conditions on gold. Since the price reached the upper diagonal of the upward channel, it is a sign that buyers got exhausted. I also found that there is the hidden bearish divergence on the RSI oscillator, which is another sign of the potential weakness. My advice is to watch for a breakout of the support trendline to confirm further downward price movement. The downward target is set at the price of $1,253.00. I expect gold to go back into the median line (mean).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 27, 2018

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Since Mid-November, Successive Lower Highs were demonstrated below the depicted H4 downtrend line around the price levels of 1.2870 and 1.2780.

Shortly after, there was a quick bearish decline towards the price level of 1.2500 before bullish recovery could take place on December 12.

A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern is being demonstrated on the H4 chart with a neckline located around 1.2660-1.2680. Bullish persistence above 1.2660-1.2680 is mandatory for confirmation. Pattern confirmation projects a bullish target towards 1.2880 again.

Friday's price action demonstrates the recent bullish breakout above the depicted downtrend line. This enhances the bullish side of the market as well.

Please take into consideration that the current bullish movement towards the price zone of 1.2680-1.2700 should be watched cautiously, as this price zone corresponds to the backside of the broken consolidation range.

Bullish breakout above 1.2680-1.2700 is needed to allow further bullish advancement towards 1.2880 where the upper border of the previous consolidation range is located.

On the other hand, the current scenario may pursue as a bearish flag pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2660 (corresponding to a prominent daily low) is maintained on a daily basis.

The projected target for the bearish flag pattern would be located around 1.2300.

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EUR / USD. 27th of December. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Wide flat saved

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -49.3671

The currency pair EUR / USD on Thursday, December 27, completed Murray's level of "4/8" - 1.1353 and started the upward movement, having managed to work out a sliding average line. Still, no important macroeconomic data are available to traders. Thus, movement with frequent kickbacks within a wide side corridor is now absolutely logical. A pair in recent weeks is often fixed either higher or lower below the moving average line, which again indicates the lateral nature of the movement. To date, several minor reports are planned in America, in particular, the level of consumer confidence, the sale of new homes and applications for unemployment benefits. However, these data are unlikely to have any impact on the movement of the currency pair. It should also be noted that technical factors are now of secondary importance since there is no trend as such. The indicator Heikin Ashi signals about frequent reversals and corrections inside the side channel of 1.1270 - 1.1470. In general, it is now possible to trade small lots between the upper and lower borders of the channel, or else one should generally refrain from opening any positions until the end of the holidays.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1383

S2 - 1.1353

S3 - 1.1322

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1444

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD often changes direction. At the moment, more relevant short positions with targets 1.1353 and 1.1322. To make them open, you should wait for the Heikin Ashi indicator to turn down when the price is below the moving average.

Long positions can also be considered in small lots if traders overcome the moving average. In this case, the targets for the upward movement will be Murray levels of 1.1414 and 1.1444.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR/USD analysis for December 27, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1409. Anyway, according to the M30 time frame, I found that the price rejected from the resistance trendline (upper diagonal of the downward channel), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a potential bearish flag in creation, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities if you see a valid breakout of the support trendline. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1343.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 27, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower border of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 a few times.

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped between the price levels of 1.1420 and 1.1270 waiting for a breakout since November 5.

On Friday, based on recent price action, another bearish engulfing daily candlestick was demonstrated around the price level of 1.1420. This enhances the bearish side of the market towards 1.1270 (lower limit of the congestion zone) in the short term.

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Global macro overview for 27/12/2018

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Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bounce from the level of 96.20 is in three waves only and the last wave made a local high just below the technical resistance at the level of 97.14. Since then, the market retraced almost 50% of the move up and now is getting closer to the level of 96.57 support. The weak momentum is pointing down which is another bad indicator for the bulls. The level of 96.57 must be held in order for the bulls to have another chance to rally higher. Otherwise, the lower price range levels at 96.40 and 96.32 will be tested soon.

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EUR / USD: Demand for US dollar may persist

Reducing the risk of dismissal from the post of the current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell helped the US dollar regain a number of positions against risky assets, and good retail sales data confirmed once again that the growth rate of the American economy at the end of this year will be very good.

Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under the President of the United States, delivered a speech yesterday, stating that there is no danger of dismissing Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve System. Let me remind you that recently there were rumors on the market that US President Donald Trump could dismiss the head of the Central Bank from his post.

Hassett hurried to reassure the markets, saying that the US president is only expressing disagreement with the current policy of Jerome Powell, but this does not mean a threat to the position of the Fed chairman. Hassett also noted that the US president does not intend to dismiss the head of the Central Bank.

As I noted above, the data that came out in retail in the United States at the end of this year was the strongest in the last six years.

According to the report, retail sales of goods during the pre-Christmas holidays, excluding cars, from November 1 to December 24 increased by 5.1% compared with the same period last year. Total for this period, the Americans spent more than 850 billion dollars.

As for the real estate market in the US, according to yesterday's report, the growth rate of home prices in the US in October of this year remained unchanged. According to Case-Shiller, the national house price index in October remained unchanged compared with September but increased by 5.5% compared with the same period of the previous year.

However, the report identifies fears associated with high rates and rising housing prices, while American income and wages are growing at a less confident pace. This means that fewer people can afford to buy a home. The housing price index for 10 megacities in October rose by 4.7% compared with the same period of the previous year, while the index for 20 megacities grew by 5%.

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Activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has completely declined.

As indicated in the report, the composite production index of the bank in December of this year immediately fell to -8 points from 14 points in November. Let me remind you that the positive values of the index indicate an increase in activity in the manufacturing sector. Economists had expected the index value in December to be 15 points.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, in the short term, there is a demand for the US dollar, which can continue even further if the bulls fail to cling to the intermediate resistance level of 1.1402 today. Returning to support of 1.1370 will lead to a new wave of selling off risky assets, reaching 1.1330 and 1.1270 lows.

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Control zones of USD / JPY pair 12.27.18

This week, the pair is trading within the monthly CZ, which indicates a high probability of price retention within it and beyond. There was a test of a significant resistance zone yesterday, which led to the formation of a reversal pattern.

Today's decline in the pair should be perceived as a correction. Yesterday's US session closed above the 1/2 CZ of 111.14-111.05.To resume growth, it may require a better price. The defining support will be the 1/2 CZ of 110.53-110.45. While the pair is trading above this zone, the upward movement remains a priority. The goal of growth is the weekly CZ of 112.12-111.95 and achieving this zone will allow fixing most of the purchases.

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The probability of growth is also confirmed on the higher timeframe, where the pair is testing the lower monthly CP. While the month is not closed, the probability of closing below this zone is close to 30%.

An alternative model will be developed if today's closure of the American session happens below 110.45. This will open the way for a decline of the pair and update the December low. It is important to understand that such a model in the future will lead to a return to the limits of a monthly fault with a probability of 90%. For this reason, considering this model for sale is not profitable.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly fault - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly fault - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones of USD / CHF pair 12.27.18

This week, the pair is trading between two significant zones of the average weekly move. There was a test of the upper zone yesterday, and a large offer appeared. This makes it possible to consider sales to the lower bound of the flat.

Trading movement within the zones of the average for the past 12 weeks allows you to cover some of the positions during their test and open opposing positions. It is important to understand that the probability of going beyond these zones is unlikely. This requires partial or complete fixation at the time of their test. Today, the decline is a priority model. Holding a short position is possible to the bottom.

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From a short-term perspective, a decline to yesterday's low can be used to fix a short position. If growth resumes, it will be necessary to transfer the position to breakeven.

An alternative model will be developed in case the pair can consolidate above the a CZ of 0.9952-0.9942. The closure of the American session will confirm the change of priority to ascending. Working under this model will allow you to look for purchases tomorrow and moving positions to January is possible if the distance from your open position is more than 50pp.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly fault - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly fault - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 27, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, and the price is moving in the bullish channel now. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term, testing 1.0142 or higher. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times, confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951 with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and then towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9863.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for December 27, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair has faced strong resistance at the level of 0.7083, because support became resistance last week. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.7083 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.7083, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.7083 (the level of 0.7083 coincides with a ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.7083, so it will be a good thing to sell at 0.7083 with the first target of 0.7032. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.6979. The daily strong support is seen at 0.6937. However, a stop loss order should always be taken into account, so it would be reasonable to place it at the level of 0.7114.

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Euro celebrates 20th anniversary

On January 1st of 2019, the single European currency, as well as the most liquid EUR/USD currency pair, celebrates its 20th anniversary. The euro was issued for non-cash payments on January 1, 1999, for cash on January 1, 2002. During the first two months after that, the euro and national currencies of the first eurozone countries were used by citizens in parallel, but then the countries completely abandoned the national currencies in favor of the euro. Currently, the euro is the single currency for more than 340 million citizens.

For 20 years, the euro has gone through many trials. The most memorable today is the crisis of sovereign debts of the countries of southern Europe, especially Greece. The main obstacle to the development of the euro is the existence of national governments of countries belonging to the euro area, and, as a result, the presence of many differences. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) quite successfully cope with the regulation of the European economy and with a high probability in 2019 will begin raising rates.

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Global macro overview for 27/12/2018

Monday's decrease beat WTI oil prices by more than 7.0%, as they were pushed to the level of 42.35 USD / b, but Wednesday's rebound resulted in an increase of 10% to the level of 47 USD / b. Today, we have a short-term correction towards the level of 45.60.

The global investors are not afraid of over-supplying the raw material in the face of the slowing global economy. Yesterday, the words of the Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, which expressed the expectations of a more stable market in the first half of 2019, helped the bulls bounce from the oversold levels. He also referred to the cooperation between OPEC and its allies in order to support the market. Novak repeated the last comments of other producers, who had desire to limit production if the need arose.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture on the daily chart. The gap down from 53.22 to 45.62 is highlighted in a blue rectangle and as we can see, the market is trying to bounce and fill the gap. The market conditions are still oversold and the momentum remains weak and negative (still below its fifty level). In a case of a bullish scenario, the next target is seen at the level of 49.40 and this level must be broken on the way towards the 52.22, otherwise, the bears will be still in control over this market.

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on December 27. Bulls are trying to return in the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Euro buyers coped with the task for the first half of the day, which I described in more detail in my morning forecast. At the moment, after a small correction from the resistance level of 1.1402, there is a possibility of its retest of a breakdown and further upward correction already in the area of maximum 1.1439, where I recommend taking profits. In case of unsuccessful consolidation above 1.1402 when you retest, it is best to consider long positions in euro only for a rebound from support around 1.1364.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

As long as trade is conducted below 1.1402, pressure on the euro will continue, and good fundamental data on the American economy may return euro sellers to the market, which will lead to a decline and a test of morning support at 1.1364. However, the main goal of the bears is still the area of 1.1329, where I recommend taking profits. If the euro rises above 1.1402, you can open short positions immediately to rebound from a maximum of 1.1439.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30- and 50-day averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

If the euro declines in the second half of the day, it is best to return to purchases from the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1345.

Details in the video forecast for December 27

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Technical analysis for US Dollar Index for December 27, 2018

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Technical outlook:

An hourly chart has been again depicted here for short-term trading setups. The US Dollar Index reached the 97.10 levels as discussed yesterday, before reversing lower again. The index is currently trading at the 96.80 levels and then it is expected to push lower towards the 95.20 levels. Please note that 97.10 is the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance as depicted on the chart, hence it is quite possible that a meaningful top is located place there. Ideally, bears are expected to remain in control from here with resistance and interim support at the levels of 97.71 and 96.20, respectively. Also pay attention that the minimum expected price rise after breaking out of consolidation is now complete at the 97.10 levels. The short-term trend setup will probably to be on the southern side till the prices stay below the 97.71 levels.

Trading plan:

Sell from 97.10 with a stop loss order at 97.71 and the target of at least 95.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for December 27, 2018

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Technical outlook:

An hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair has been depicted here for short-term trading setups. As discussed yesterday, after breaking out of consolidation, the EUR/USD pair dropped lower towards the 1.1350 levels before finding support. The prices bounced off the strong Fibonacci 0.618 levels of the previous rally between the 1.1270 and 1.1485 levels, respectively. The most likely direction from here should be on the north side, and the prices should remain above today's low. Immediate price support can be seen at 1.1343, while resistance is seen at 1.1430/50, followed by the 1.1500 levels, respectively. Please note that any intraday pullback from current price of the 1.1400 levels should remain capped by the 1.1342 level. Bulls are expected to stay in control from here and push the prices towards the 1.1650 level as demonstrated on the chart here.

Trading plan:

Buy from 1.1350 with a stop loss order at 1.1270 and the target of at least 1.1650.

Good luck!

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The pre-Christmas rally just starting to end

On Wednesday, trading on US stock markets went with an unprecedented high result. The Dow Jones index showed the largest one-day increase in history. In one trading session, the oil market won back almost 10% in the start of quotes for the week. The S&P 500 futures are in the highs reached on Wednesday, which may indicate attempts to continue growth in trading on Thursday.

It is completely unclear what caused such a sharp rise. One of the main reasons is the trick of President Trump, who expressed confidence in Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, and openly called for buying depreciating stocks in a strong economy. Trump actually repeated what Obama did in April 2009, which supported the market with his calls, but there is one significant difference between the current situation and the one that developed at the height of the crisis.

Obama called for the purchase of shares amid a sharp decline in interest rates and pumping markets with liquidity as part of a quantitative easing program and a fall in bond yields pushed investors into the stock market. Now, the situation looks exactly the opposite. The rates are rising while the Fed is reducing the balance. Meanwhile, the turnover of money, calculated as the ratio of nominal GDP to monetary aggregate M1, M2 or MZM, cannot find a basis.

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Investors have to choose between supporting a falling stock market, which is in the stage of a bubble that has started to deflate and other tools that will show an increase in yields in the face of rising interest rates.

Trump's last argument about the strength of the economy is similar to the cry of a drowning man for help. The December data on business activity in the manufacturing sector shows an unprecedented sharp slowdown this month. Reports from the regional offices of the Fed do not give any chances to start a recovery wave. The New York Fed reported a slowdown from 23.3p to 10.9p in November. The PMI index in Philadelphia fell from 12.9p to 9.4p and the Kansas Federal Reserve Bank went into the negative zone, falling from 24p to -18p. Yesterday Richmond reported a fall from 14p. to -8p, simultaneously with a decrease in business activity as a slowdown in the labor market has been observed, that is, the manufacturing sector is currently entering a steep dive and will undoubtedly slacken other sectors as well.

Yield of 5-year bonds Tips continues to fall sharply, in December it fell from 1.76% to 1.52%, which suggests that the publication of data on December. Inflation in January will show a decrease below target of 2%, which will cause another wave of panic sales.

There are no macroeconomic reasons for turning the expectations of the US stock market. The rollback of the environment is just a strong correction after a long fall and a weekend and with high probability, the decline will be resumed on Thursday.

Eurozone

On Thursday morning, the ECB published another macroeconomic bulletin in which it acknowledged that the actual data turned out to be worse than expected.

At the same time, the ECB expects inflation to rise, which should compensate for the slowdown in global economic activity and support both the euro and business activity in the euro area.

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On Friday there will be preliminary data on inflation for December in Germany, which will show how much the expectations of the ECB are based on a real basis. While investors prefer to consider the situation in the eurozone moderately stable, and the recent decrease in PMI to be temporary, such expectations support the euro in the face of the danger of a serious weakening of the dollar.

EUR/USD did not manage to organize the Christmas rally, however, there are not many reasons to wait for the negative dynamics either. The euro will most likely continue to trade in a wide range of 1.1260 and 1.1480 towards the upper limit of the range in the coming days because the forecasts for the January report on the US labor market are negative.

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Trading plan for 27/12/2018

Due to the shortened session on Monday and the lack of trade on Wednesday, the Europeans missed mood swings on Wall Street. As a result, yesterday's risk rally is perceived by investors very carefully, as they still examining the sentiment by the end of the year. The major indices in the Old Continent are balanced around the reference levels.

On Thursday, the 27th of December, the event calendar is light on the important data releases, but there are still the Consumer Confidence report from the US, Unemployment Claims, and New Homes Starts. No speeches are scheduled for today as well.

SP500 analysis for 27/12/2018:

The dramatic collapse in the stock and oil market had old and new guilty parties. In addition to fears of global slowdown and commercial disputes, investors are concerned about the partial US government shutdown (government shutdown) and reports that President Trump has largely blamed the economic crises on the Fed, publicly criticizing President Powell. It fueled speculation that Trump would release Powell. The situation was not improved by the information that Treasury secretary Mnuchin had called the crisis group after the sharp drops on Wall Street.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture on H4. The market has bounced from the level of 233.69 and broke above the 23% Fibo at the level of 245.00, as the rebound continues. The market conditions are extremely oversold and the momentum is weak and negative. The next target for bulls is seen at the levels of 249.71 (technical resistance) and 252.55 (38% Fibo level). The key technical resistance is still seen at the level of 259.24.

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Bitcoin analysis for 27/12/2018

The Japanese bank Mizuho Financial Group plans to introduce a digital currency in March, which will be used for transfers and payments.

According to the article in the financial press, the fees that retail stores will have to pay for the currency will be much lower than the fees charged for using a credit card. Transferring funds between the digital wallet and the bank account will be free, as well as sending money to other users. In addition, the bank cooperates with approximately 60 regional banks to promote non-cash payments. Moreover, regional banks will be able to provide a service under a common name that has not yet been determined. The currency will be managed by a dedicated smartphone application, and payments will be made using QR codes. The token will be a stable coin at the price of 1 yen per unit.

Mizuho Financial Group is a holding company from the public banking sector, which, in 2017, recorded revenues of 1.45 trillion yen, or over 13 billion dollars. The virtual currency is the result of the development of J-Coin, announced in September 2017 by Mizuho.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture based on the H4 time frame. The market has made a local high at the level of $4,200 and reversed towards the level of $3,850. This level was violated and the market retraced 50% on its way down. Currently, the price is trying to bounce towards the level of $3,775 and if this level is violated, the next target is seen at the level of $3,850. The momentum remains positive, but it is not so strong anymore. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $3,595.

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Bitcoin analysis for 27/12/2018

The Japanese bank Mizuho Financial Group plans to introduce a digital currency in March, which will be used for transfers and payments.

According to the article in the financial press, the fees that retail stores will have to pay for the currency will be much lower than the fees charged for using a credit card. Transferring funds between the digital wallet and the bank account will be free, as well as sending money to other users. In addition, the bank cooperates with approximately 60 regional banks to promote non-cash payments. Moreover, regional banks will be able to provide a service under a common name that has not yet been determined. The currency will be managed by a dedicated smartphone application, and payments will be made using QR codes. The token will be a stable coin at the price of 1 yen per unit.

Mizuho Financial Group is a holding company from the public banking sector, which recorded revenues of 1.45 trillion yen, or over 13 billion dollars, in 2017. The virtual currency is the result of the development of J-Coin, announced in September 2017 by Mizuho.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture based on the H4 time frame. The market has made a local high at the level of $4,200 and reversed towards the level of $3,850. This level was violated, and the market retraced 50% on its way down. Currently, the price is trying to bounce towards the level of $3,775 and if this level is violated, the next target is seen at the level of $3,850. The momentum remains positive, but it is not so strong anymore. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $3,595.

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EUR / USD: the vagaries of the "thin" market

Anti-risk sentiment among traders is gaining momentum due to the recovery of the US stock market, as well as the positive dynamics of the oil market and the optimistic news from China. The theme of "Shutdown" has so far faded into the background, although this issue has not lost its relevance. In other words, the market today decided that "the glass is half full" and not vice versa, after which the euro-dollar pair stopped its decline and is currently trying to return to the borders of the 14th figure.

The main reason for optimism was the situation in the US stock market. After the next collapse, the same rapid growth of the main indices yesterday followed, - moreover, historical records were recorded in some parameters. For example, the growth rate of the Dow Jones industrial index was the strongest in the entire observation history (referring to the period of one trading session). The indicator increased by 1086 points, thus adding 4.98% and reaching the level of 22878.45. The remaining indicators also completed trading in the "green zone" as the S & P 500 index increased by 116.6 points (that is, 4.9%) and the NASDAQ rose by 361.44 points, showing a positive trend of 5.84%. Exxon Mobil, Facebook, Chevron, Netflix and Amazon were up more than 8%, and Apple and Nike more than 7%.

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It is noteworthy that the stock market turned around due to rather minor news, which in any other case would have been simply ignored by traders. So, one of the economic advisers to Trump told American journalists that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell would not be dismissed from his post and continue his work "with a 100 percent probability." Although this fact is obvious, market participants reacted positively to the official's words. Well, the "thin" market dictates its own rules of the game, so you shouldn't be surprised at anything in the pre-holiday period. Although even the experts were shocked by the powerful price dynamics - according to them, this is the strongest growth of the indices since spring 2009.

Reduced panic in the market was due to another factor. We are talking about the prospects of US-China trade relations. At the end of the G20 summit, the leaders of the United States and China decided to continue negotiations, which ideally should end with a broad trade deal. After that, the parties "dispersed to the corners of the ring," and for several weeks this topic remained in the shadow. In the conditions of such silence in the market, dark rumors spread that the negotiators could not find a common denominator again and the trade war would continue. But literally today, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported that the Chinese side will hold face-to-face trade negotiations with the Americans in January. Also, all this time Beijing and Washington have been conducting "intensive telephone consultations.", according to American journalists.

These are not the first negotiations of this nature, but in this case, they testify to the implementation of the November agreements of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. It is also worth recalling that earlier, Beijing has already shown positive signals. In particular, the Chinese resumed purchases of soybeans and reduced tariffs for cars from the States. If the January negotiations succeed, the likelihood of a broad trade deal will increase in many ways and although there are still too many "ifs" in this scenario, such steps are only welcomed by the market, especially in conditions of low liquidity.

Against the background of such a fundamental picture, which literally changed its color in just a few days, the American currency feels uncomfortable. The dollar index balances between 96 and 95 points, not showing a pronounced dynamics. On the contrary, the euro-dollar pair restored almost all the lost positions in the morning, returning to the 14th figure. However, it is still risky to open long positions now. The fundamental background is too unreliable, and the pre-holiday volatility can deploy a pair without any clear reason. That is why it is better to give up on EUR/USD trading — or follow the technical analysis.

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In terms of technical analysis, the growth of the EUR/USD pair is uncertain. Although the pair is located between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, it is also located within the Kumo cloud. The bulls of the pair need to confirm their dominance. First, it is necessary to overcome the upper line of the Bollinger Bands (mark 1.1430), and secondly, to consolidate above the upper boundary of the cloud, that is, above the 1.1515 mark. Only, in this case, it will be possible to talk about the priority of the northern movement. Up to this point, we are dealing only with correctional growth, the dynamics of which does not inspire confidence - especially in a "thin" market.

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Technical analysis for Gold for December 27, 2018

Gold remains in the bullish trend making higher highs and higher lows. Yesterday, the price made a pullback towards $1,264. In our last analysis, we noted that as long as the price is above the $1,245-50 area, trend remains bullish at least in the short term.

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Green lines - bullish channel

Gold price got rejected at the upper channel border and pulled back from $1,279 to $1,264. Gold price got very close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level which was our next target. There is no warning from the RSI yet neither in the daily chart or the H4 chart. Short-term support is found at yesterday's lows and the next one is at $1,255. I believe that a new higher maximum may come and push the price closer to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for December 27, 2018

The EUR/USD pair remains inside the trading range between 1.1450-1.1270. In the short term, the trend remains neutral. However, today, we will take a look at the bigger picture and see that the bullish scenario is more likely.

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Red lines - bullish divergence

Black downward sloping line - major trend line resistance

The EUR/USD pair has stopped the decline from 1.2555 at the level very close to the important support at 1.1215 where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This Fibonacci level is very important support and we often see trend reversals from this area. Additionally, on the daily chart, we can observe a three drive pattern in the RSI where the new lows in the price are not followed by the new lows in the RSI. These are all bullish indications and warnings to bears. But from the technical point of view, the trend has not changed yet. Bulls will need to break and close above 1.1450-1.1470 and the black downward sloping trend line in order for the trend to change.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD pair for December 27. The pound is ready for a new fall, holidays can prevent

Wave counting analysis:

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On December 26, the GBP / USD pair began to decline and lost 80 bp during the day, failing to reach the level of 38.2% by just a few points. Thus, the pair presumably began to build a new descending 3rd wave or from a downward trend. If this assumption is correct, the decline will continue from current levels with targets located under the 25th figure. At the same time, a successful attempt to break through the level of 38.2% will lead to a complication of the estimated wave 2 or b and a further increase in the instrument.

Shopping goals:

1.2742 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2825 - 50.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2475 - 0.0% Fibonacci

1.2229 - 323.6% Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD pair could complete the construction of a 3-up structure. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.2742 mark indicates the pair's willingness to decline, and I recommend now selling the pair as part of an estimated 3rd wave or with targets located below the 25th figure. At the same time, the pair may experience difficulties with a fall or rise in the coming days and even a week, as there are no new reports on Brexit now and the markets are clearly waiting for a complete solution to this issue.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD pair for December 27. The pair stays range-bound

Wave counting analysis:

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On Wednesday, December 26, trading for EUR / USD closed with a decline of 60 basis points. Thus, there is every reason to assume the completion of the construction of the upward wave c. If this is indeed the case, the decline in quotations will continue with targets located near the level of 0.0%. The entire wave structure, which takes its beginning on November 12, can even get a 5-wave view, but so far this option is reserved.

Sales targets:

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1471 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair allegedly completed the construction of a wave. Thus, now I recommend cautious selling of the pair with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1215, which equates to 0.0% Fibonacci. I still do not recommend buying the pair and there may be options for shopping near the level of 1.1215, since the entire trend section after November 12 may take a more complex look.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for December 27, 2018

The AUD/USD pair has been quite non-volatile and impulsive with the recent bearish momentum which led the price to the area of 0.7000-50. Having worse economic reports published recently, AUD struggled to maintain momentum against USD which had better economic results after the news on an increase in interest rates.

Due to the observance of Christmas and Boxing day, this week, there have been no economic reports or events on the AUD side. Though the growth of USD has been quite slow as well, because of the holidays and low liquidity in the market, worse economic reports published recently may lead to certain weakness of USD in the coming days. Recently, US S&P C/S Composite 20-HPI report has been published with a decrease to 5.0% from the previous value of 5.2%, while economists expected the rate of 4.8%; and Richmond Manufacturing Index has decreased significantly to -8 from the previous positive figure of 14 which was expected to increase to 16. Moreover, today, US CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is estimated to decrease to 133.7 from the previous figure of 135.7.

As of the current scenario, there are no economic reports or events which could impact the growth of AUD. But the fact that experts are pessimistic with the respect to the upcoming economic reports on the USD side, may lead to certain weakness of the dollar resulting in short-term gains on the AUD side, before the bearish trend continues to push the price much lower in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of the 0.7050 support area, from where certain bullish pressure may be observed leading the price towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA. The price is currently expected to push higher despite no Bullish Divergence in formation, but having gravitational mean attraction to the average, there is a great probability that the price will go higher towards the dynamic level before pushing much lower with the trend. As the price remains below the 0.7200 area, the impulsive bearish pressure is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.70, 0.7050

RESISTANCE: 0.7200

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for December 27th. Two bullish divergences will help the pound?

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair made a U-turn in favor of the US currency and remains within the lateral range indicated by the blue rectangle. Bullish divergence at the CCI indicator allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and some growth to the upper range. The closing of quotations of the pair on December 27 under 1.2600 (lower range) will make it possible to count on the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2491.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair made some fall, but now the bullish divergence at the MACD indicator allows you to count on a turn in favor of the British currency and a return to the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696. A pass of the last divergent low will work in favor of the American dollar and continuing to fall in quotations in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.2566. Fixing the pair above the correction level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2809.

The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.2696 and a Stop Loss order under a bullish divergence low, as bullish divergence has formed (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2566 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

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Simplified wave analysis of GOLD for December 27

Large-scale graphics:

In the main downward wave of the gold trend of the D1 scale, the last wave H4 formed a counter correction. Lifting potential close to exhaustion.

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Medium scale graphics:

From mid-November, the quotes moved upward, completing the corrective bullish wave of a larger TF. To date, the wave structure is fully formed.

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Small-scale graphics:

The bullish section from December 14 is at the very end of a time scale wave. The price is located at the upper edge of a wide reversal zone of large scale.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming weeks, there is every reason to wait for the change of the motion vector, so the purchases are unpromising. Before opening deals in the opposite direction, you must wait for the appearance of clear reversal signals.

Resistance zones:

- 1275.0 / 1280.0

Support areas:

- 1235.0 / 1230.0

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / JPY for December 27

Large-scale graphics:

Beginning in May of this year, the rising wave is formed in the form of a stretched plane. On the chart, the figure has the form of an expanding triangle.

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Medium scale graphics:

The bearish wave from September 21 is still in the development stage. The preliminary price zone is located at the upper edge of a wide area of potential large-scale reversal.

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Small-scale graphics:

The descending section of the graph of December 13 in the larger wave model gave rise to the final phase (C).

Forecast and recommendations:

The current downward trend has a small stroke potential. Sales can be applied only on small TF. For longer transactions, you need to wait for the entire current decline to complete and look for signals to buy the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 127.80 / 128.30

Support areas:

- 125.00 / 124.50

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Unjustified growth of optimism supported the dollar

On Wednesday, the US dollar received support against virtually all major currencies in the wake of a sharp rise in the US stock market, which showed the strongest daily gain since 2009.

It is difficult to say what was the main reason for this, but, most likely, its upward dynamics was based on a strong previous oversold, which lasted a week and a half, on D. Trump's statement of confidence in Finance Minister S. Mnuchin, as well as on data on strong sales growth in the pre-Christmas season, which jumped 5.1% to more than $ 850 billion. Or maybe the mood of investors was influenced by Trump's call to buy shares in companies, which he did on Tuesday. It should also take into account the fact that a significant number of investors are now on weekends and the market is very "thin", which allows it to move sharply on small volumes.

The stimulus to the growth of the dollar also served as a noticeable increase in the yield of government bonds of the US Treasury, for example, the yield of the 10-year-term treasuries bench brand rose from 2.751% to 2.801%.

On the general wave of a positive and rising propensity for a risky game, prices for crude oil also jumped up.

Now the markets are wondering what to expect today and in the near future. In our opinion, the overall picture has not yet undergone any noticeable changes. The main negative conditions stimulating the resumption of sales still persist, the expectation of continuing to increase the Fed's interest rates, reducing its balance, a vague picture in the negotiation process between Beijing and Washington on mutual trade, as well as existing real grounds for slowing global growth.

In our opinion, if the market does not see any positive news today or does not want to invent them for itself, the fall in American stock indices will resume, which will become the basis for the resumption of negative trends in world markets.

With regard to the dynamics of the US dollar, then, in our opinion, it will not change radically. Not only negative factors but also positive factors that balance it in the foreign exchange market, continue to affect the dollar. Negatives include the resumption of the fall in the US equity market, the decline in the yield of Treasury government bonds, and internal political problems in America. The positive is the expectation of continuing the interest rate increase cycle, the process of reducing the balance of the Fed and the function of the currency of refuge.

Forecast of the day:

The USD / JPY currency pair is trading above 110.85. The resumption of negative trends in the market may push the pair below this mark and lead to its decline to 109.60.

The currency pair USD / CAD kept above the level of 1.3560. If crude oil prices continue to decline, the pair may rise to 1.3700.

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DYaf54W80JN0p8YwjOR8qwmLjtNRWiYqL3DVcxxtThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December 27

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we expect a further downward movement after the breakdown of 1.1345. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we should continue moving upwards after the breakdown of 1.2680 and at the moment, the price is in the correction. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price forms the potential for the top of December 21 and the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 0.9961. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of December 26 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 111.70. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we expect a further downward movement after passing by the price of the range of 126.14 - 125.89. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we expect the downward movement after the breakdown of 139.86.

Forecast for December 27:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:cmyDtJz82neukx0J_xwRxYVvsLgj3ZBIv3z34jTtFor the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1437, 1.1405, 1.1384, 1.1347, 1.1321, 1.1305 and 1.1256. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of December 20. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1347. In this case, the goal is 1.1321 and in the range of 1.1321 - 1.1305 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1256 and a pronounced movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 1.1305.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1384 - 1.1405 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1437 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1384 Take profit: 1.1403

Buy 1.1407 Take profit: 1.1435

Sell: 1.1345 Take profit: 1.1324

Sell: 1.1305 Take profit: 1.1260ZH0P_OOqqM6PPCKwzQRa27m1YZgTL-3PDXQHPfG7For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2865, 1.2813, 1.2741, 1.2679, 1.2592, 1.2552, 1.2517, 1.2475 and 1.2417. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of December 11. An upward movement is expected after breakdown of 1.2679. In this case, the target is 1.2741 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2741 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2813. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.2865, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 1.2592 - 1.2552. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2517 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.2475.

The main trend is the ascending structure of December 11, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2680 Take profit: 1.2740

Buy: 1.2744 Take profit: 1.2813

Sell: 1.2591 Take profit: 1.2552

Sell: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2517iznMPxkXXrIFl5hV8zv5A3QPaIy9fM3nU9gTPCzQFor the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0029, 0.9993, 0.9978, 0.9961, 0.9919, 0.9905 and 0.9883. Here, we follow the formation of the ascending structure of December 21. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9961. In this case, the target is 0.9978 and consolidation is near this level. The price passage of the range of 0.9978 - 0.9993 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.0029, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9919 - 0.9905. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9883 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9961 Take profit: 0.9976

Buy: 0.9995 Take profit: 1.0025

Sell: 0.9919 Take profit: 0.9908

Sell: 0.9903 Take profit: 0.9885r43-XtKmNMnBg5Pmk7uWzjkFX9NN6bqaEeFGo4YrFor the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 112.61, 112.29, 111.70, 111.48, 110.99, 110.73, 110.54 and 110.26. Here, we follow the formation of the ascending structure of December 26. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 111.48 - 111.70 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 112.29. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 112.61, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 110.99 - 110.73. The range of 110.73 - 110.54 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to form a downward movement. Here, the goal is 110.26.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.48 Take profit: 111.70

Buy: 111.73 Take profit: 112.26

Sell: 110.96 Take profit: 110.75

Sell: 110.52 Take profit: 110.28

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3741, 1.3667, 1.3621, 1.3557, 1.3516 and 1.3463. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of December 7. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3621 - 1.3667 and the breakdown of the last value will allow expecting a movement towards a potential target of 1.3741, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3557 - 1.3516. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3453 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of December 7th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3621 Take profit: 1.3665

Buy: 1.3670 Take profit: 1.3740

Sell: 1.3555 Take profit: 1.3518

Sell: 1.3514 Take profit: 1.3465

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7148, 0.7115, 0.7075, 0.7049, 0.7015, 0.6997, 0.6954 and 0.6919. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of December 13. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 0.7015 - 0.6997. In this case, the target is 0.6954. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.6919, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 0.7049 - 0.7075 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7115 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 0.7148.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7050 Take profit: 0.7073

Buy: 0.7077 Take profit: 0.7115

Sell: 0.6995 Take profit: 0.6958

Sell: 0.6952 Take profit: 0.6921

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.48, 127.00, 126.68, 126.14, 125.89 and 125.30. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of December 13. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 126.14 - 125.89 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target. In this case, the target is 125.30 and we expect a rollback to the top from this level.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 126.68 - 127.00 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 127.48 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 126.68 Take profit: 127.00

Buy: 127.03 Take profit: 127.40

Sell: 126.14 Take profit: 125.92

Sell: 125.87 Take profit: 125.35

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 142.09, 141.30, 140.92, 140.22, 139.86 and 139.15. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of December 13. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 140.22 - 139.86 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 139.15. From the level of 139.15, we expect a roll back up.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 140.92 - 141.30 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 142.09 and this level is the key support for the bottom. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 142.73.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 140.92 Take profit: 141.25

Buy: 141.35 Take profit: 142.05

Sell: 140.20 Take profit: 139.90

Sell: 139.83 Take profit: 139.20

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