USD/JPY for a long run towards 108

JPY has been dominating USD to a certain extent since the first day of 2017. There has been good amount of volatility since last 2 weeks in a corrective range between 112.50 and 115.20. After the FOMC meeting minutes revealed policymakers' views on the upcoming rate hike, USD showed some upward spikes, but the unchanged federal funds rate did not provide much support to the greenback. The latest unemployment claims report showed an actual figure of 246k in comparison with the forecasted 251k, the American dollar showed some bullish move but currently the market is rejecting from 112.50 area. To summarize, the USD/JPY pair is in bearish trend with a target to hit the 108.00-10 support level in nearest future. A daily close below 112.50 will confirm the upward moves in this pair.

From the technical point of view, JPY has already gained decent profits against USD after rebounding from the 118.20 area. The market is currently rejecting from the 112.50 area and making a way to break the new support which is turning to be the new resistance area. There had been quite corrective market lately which is being broken downwards with the support level at 108.00-10. If the daily candle closes below 112.50, then we will be looking for some retrace to retest the new resistance area in the nearest future to enter the market with a target at 108.00-10 support.

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Will GBP hit the 1.2800 mark?

GBP has been gaining rapidly against USD and its trend has been quite intact up to now. Britain's Brexit still influence the volatility in the market where guidelines for Brexit are being processed. Moreover, it is also ensured that the UK will leave the Eurozone and will discuss the free trade policies with the Eurozone leaders again. It would be interesting to see the way Trump trying to make America great again. At the same time Britain's Brexit process is going to affect the currency in the long run. Today is an important day for GBP, as such news reports as Inflation report, Monetary policy summary, and Official bank rate due to publish today. Though all the forecasts are not predicting any changes in the figure, high volatility is expected to hit the market today before and during the news event.

Now let us take a look at the technical point of view. GBP has gained aggressively by bouncing off the support level of 1.2410 area. Recently the market has bounced off from the support area residing between 1.2515 and 1.2550 area and currently is climbing towards the resistance area 1.2730 to 1.2800. Due to a considerable number of important news releases, the market is expected to be volatile while trying to reach the resistance area between 1.2730 and 1.2800. On the other hand, if the market fails to hit the resistance and reverses downwards, we might see some corrective structures taking place before the NFP report.

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Gold analysis for February 02, 2017

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Recently, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,225.33. According to the 4H time frame, I found a broken resistance zone and broken Fibonacci expansion 61.8%, which is a sign of strength. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of $1,232.55 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of $1,254.00. Short-term trend is bullish. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips.

Fibonacci pivot points (5H)

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,227.40

R2: 1,229.60

R3: 1,233.20

Support levels:

S1: 1,200.15

S2: 1,217.90

S3: 1,214.30

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/NZD analysis for February 02, 2017

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.4744. My first target from previous forecast at the price of 1.4745 has been met. According to the 15M time frame, I still see lower price and potential for testing 1.4670. There is intraday resistance cluster at the price of 1.4770 (good place for short position). The trend is still downward.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4845

R2: 1.4870

R3: 1.4915

Support levels:

S1: 1.4750

S2: 1.4730

S3: 1.4685

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD to resume uptrend?

EUR/USD has been volatile for last months, but it showed a consistent growth from the start of 2017. After elected President Donald Trump had made a few bold decisions, the greenback weakened against the euro. The FOMC meeting minutes was revealed on the first day of this month. The federal funds rate remained unchanged at 0.75% which brought some volatility but created no noticeable pressure in the market. Today some key reports are scheduled to be published such as the US unemployment claims which previously was 259K and forecasted to be 251K. As NFP is only a day away, the market is likely to be quite volatile in these remaining two days of the week.

From the technical point of view, since the beginning of 2017 the market has been bullish with some corrective gains towards the recent spike at 1.0850. Currently, the market is above 1.0750 and the bullish bias continues. As the market is above the support area between 1.0715 and 1.0770, we will be looking for some retracement towards the support area. If we get any bearish rejection on the intraday charts, we will watch for buying opportunities with a target towards 1.0850 level.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 2, 2017

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The USD/CAD pair was trapped between the price levels of 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) until a bullish breakout took place one month ago.

The pair challenged the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3360-1.3400 which succeeded to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) was achieved.

This allowed a further decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3080 (the lower limit of the depicted channel) where bullish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

A bullish breakout above 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel). However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recent established top).

The price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support for the recent bearish pullback.

That's why, the recent bearish pullback toward 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) offered a valid BUY entry as expected in previous articles.

A bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) is needed to enhance a bullish advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3550. Otherwise, the USD/CAD pair remains trapped within the current consolidation range (1.3000-1.3300).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 2, 2017

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By the end of June a significant bearish break below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (Fundamental Reasons).

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario toward the price levels around 1.2700 (Bearish projection target).

The GBP/USD pair has been trapped inside the depicted consolidation range (above 1.2700) until a bearish breakout took place on October 6.

Daily persistence below 1.2700 confirmed the bearish Flag pattern. That is why, a bearish projection target was expected near 1.2020.

On October 25, Bullish recovery was initiated around the price level of 1.2080. That is why, a bullish pullback was executed toward 1.2700-1.2750.

Risky traders considered this bullish pullback toward the price zone of 1.2700-1.2750 to be a valid SELL entry. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On January 16, a bullish engulfing candlestick was expressed around the demand level of 1.2000. That's why, another bullish breakout above 1.2430 was initiated.

The next bullish target is located around 1.2750 where bearish rejection should be expected.

On the other hand, the next bearish destination would be located around 1.1200 when bearish momentum is resumed.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 2, 2017

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010.

Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if the current monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0570-1.1400).

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish persistence below 1.0575 is needed to pursue this bearish scenario.

On November 14, bearish persistence below 1.0825 (Key-Level 2) allowed further decline toward 1.0570 (demand level) where evident bullish rejection was expressed on November 24.

Shortly after, the Fibonacci Expansion 100% (1.0825) constituted a recent supply level which offered a valid SELL entry on December 8.

Bearish persistence below the depicted demand level (1.0570) was expected to allow further decline toward 1.0220. However, significant bullish recovery was expressed around the price level of 1.0340 on January 3.

Bullish persistence above 1.0600 allowed further bullish advance toward 1.0825-1.0850 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

Bullish breakout above 1.0570-1.0600 was executed on January 12. That's why, the price level of 1.0570 now constitutes a recent demand level to be watched for bullish rejection if any bearish pullback occurs.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feburary 02, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in lower range as the bias remains bearish. The pair broke above its 50-period moving average and is challenging the 20-period one, while the relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50. Nevertheless, 113.65 is playing a key resistance role, which should limit the upside potential. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

As long as 113.20 holds on the upside, look for a further drop to 112.05 and even 111.60 in extension.

Recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 112.05. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 111.60. The pivot point stands at 113.20. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 113.55 and the second one at 113.95.

Resistance levels: 113.95, 114.20, 114.50 Support levels: 112.05, 111.60, 111.30

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Feburary 02, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias as the Key resistance is at 0.9935. The pair is capped by its descending 50-period moving average, which plays resistance role and maintains the downside bias. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. In addition, the previous high at 0.9935 is playing a key resistance role, which should limit the upside potential.

As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its national factory activity index increased to 56.0 in January, the highest level since November 2014, from 54.5 in December. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) data showed that employers added 246,000 private jobs in January (vs. +168,000 expected, +151,000 in December). The U.S. dollar surrendered gains made earlier in the session after the Federal Reserve shed little light on its plans to raise interest rates this year.

As long as this key level holds on the upside, look for a further drop to 0.9860 and even 0.9830 in extension.

Resistance levels: 0.9955, 0.9980, and 1.0010

Support levels: 0.9860, 0.9830, and 0.9815

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Feburary 02, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to continue the rebound. The pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages with strong momentum and is heading upwards. In addition, the 20-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. As long as 0.7270 holds on the downside, look for a further upside to 0.7330 and even 0.7345 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7330 and the second one at 0.7345. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7250 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7230. The pivot point is at 0.7270.

Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7345, 0.7375

Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7230, 0.7200

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 02, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to advance further. The pair is holding on the upside and is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which are playing support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. Additionally, 142.00 represents a significant key support level, which should limit the downside potential. As long as this key level is support, look for a further rise to 143.50 and even 144.15 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 143.50 and the second one at 144.15. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 141.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 140.75. The pivot point is at 142.00.

Resistance levels: 143.50, 144.15, 144.80

Support levels: 141.60, 140.75,140.00

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 0.9800 or lower. The USD/CHF pair continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9960. Since yesterday, the pair has dropped from the level of 0.9960 to the bottom around the spot of 0.9890. In consequence, the USD/CHF pair broke support at the level 0.9960, which turned into strong resistance at the level of 0.9960. In the H1 time frame, the level of 0.9960 is expected to act as major resistance today. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish market. The price is still below the moving average (100). From this point, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from the resistance levels of 0.9960 and 0.9922 towards the target level of 0.9860. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9860, the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below the level of 0.9860 so as to reach the second target at 0.9830. Moreover, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the level of 0.9830, the market will decline further to 0.9800.
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Technical analysis of USDX for February 2, 2017

The dollar index remains in a bearish trend. The price made a lower low yesterday that was not confirmed by the RSI. We see warning divergence signs that a strong bounce could start anytime soon. Important level for a confirmed reversal is at 100.50.

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Red lines - downward sloping wedge

Blue lines - expected path ahead

Black line - bullish divergence sign

The dollar index continues to make lower lows and continues to trade inside the wedge and below the cloud resistance. Short-term support is at 99 and resistance at 100.50. I'm currently neutral expecting a strong reversal in the dollar index.

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Green line - long-term support

Red line - bearish divergence

The dollar index continues moving towards our weekly target of 99 after breaking below the weekly tenkan-sen (red line indicator). Trend remains bearish in the short term but on the longer term the price could be forming wave 4 and a wave 5 up towards the level of 105.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues moving upwards from the levels of 0.7233 and 0.7260. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.7260 which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to a top around 0.7299. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.7260 followed by 0.7233, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.7299. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7230 and 0.7300. On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.7299, which coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. Therefore, if the trend is able to break through the first resistance level of 0.7300, we should see the pair climbing towards the next objective at 0.7349 to test the double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7260, a further decline to 0.7206 can occur. This would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of gold for February 2, 2017

As expected, gold price pulled back towards $1,200 and now is bouncing strongly upwards towards the previous highs of $1,220. The metal is trading inside a narrow range. The downward correction might already be over. We keep our longer-term bullish view.

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Blue line - resistance

Red line - support

Gold price is trading above the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud. We could see a back test of the cloud support at $1,202 but overall there are a lot of chances that the entire correction is over at $1,180 and we have started the next leg up. The NFP numbers announced on Friday will certainly influence the short-term trend.

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Weekly candle in gold price is testing the lower cloud boundary again. I expect the correction to take more time to unfold lower towards $1,160 but it seems that this scenario is getting weaker. A break above $1,220-25 and a weekly close above it will confirm that $1,180 is the low and we are heading towards $1,3000-$1,285.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Feb 02, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French 10-y Bond Auction, PPI m/m, ECB Economic Bulletin, and Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will release the economic data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0846.

Strong Resistance:1.0839.

Original Resistance: 1.0827.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0815.

Target Inner Area: 1.0787.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0758.

Original Support: 1.0746.

Strong Support: 1.0734.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0727.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feb 02, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence, 10-y Bond Auction, and Monetary Base y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.62.

Resistance. 2: 113.40.

Resistance. 1: 113.18.

Support. 1: 112.91.

Support. 2: 112.68.

Support. 3: 112.46.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 2, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD is bullish in outlook and price is expected to go further upwards, reaching the resistance lines at 1.0850 and 1.0900. The immediate resistance line is at 1.0800, which has been tested before and it would be tested again (and breached). Some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have impact on the market.

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USD/CHF: The currency trading instrument is bearish in outlook – price has gone further downwards this week. Any rallies seen here – just like the shallow one currently in place – should be ignored. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and further downwards movement is expected since USD is facing challenges in two fronts; a strong EUR and a strong CHF.

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GBP/USD: On GBP/USD, the downwards movement that was seen on Monday and Tuesday has proven to be a good opportunity to go long, in conjunction with the extant bullish trend. Price is currently at accumulation territory at 1.2650, going toward the distribution territories at 1.2700 and 1.2750. These are the targets for the week. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have impact on the market.

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USD/JPY: No matter what bulls do here, they would only be able to move price upwards temporarily. The medium-term trend is essentially bearish, and the market is expected to continue going further and further downwards, except something drastic happens (like a fundamental factor), which changes the situation in the market.

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EUR/JPY: This currency cross has not moved significantly in one direction so far this week. Price has oscillated between the supply zone at 123.00 and the demand zone at 121.00. Price would need to go above the demand zone to create a bullish signal, or go below the supply zone to create a bearish signal.

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Daily analysis of USDX for February 02, 2017

USDX erased post-US positive data after Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. The index is now looking to reach the support level of 99.46, where a breakout lower should expose the 98.98 level. The overall bearish structure remains alive and if we witness a breakout below 99.46, that bias should last for several days more, as the MACD indicator is trying to enter the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.80 / 100.36

H1 chart's support levels: 99.46 / 98.98

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 99.46, take profit is at 98.98 and stop loss is at 99.95.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 02, 2017

GBP/USD is rallying across the board above the 200 SMA at H1 chart, following Fed's decision to keep rates on hold during January's meeting. Currently, the pair is poised to test the resistance zone of 1.2718, where a breakout higher should open the doors to test the 1.2840 level, while a pullback can produce a re-testing of the moving average mentioned above.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2718 / 1.2840

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2527 / 1.2420

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2718, take profit is at 1.2840 and stop loss is at 1.2601.

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Daily Video Analysis on AUD/JPY - 1st February 2017

We take an in-depth look on AUD/JPY to see if there are any trading opportunities available for us to trade off and generate potential profits from. We explain clearly how we utilize a range of analytical approaches from Fibonacci retracements to Fibonacci extensions, price action and oscillators to determine such trading opportunities.

Join us and learn how to find good trading opportunities through technical analysis!

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EUR/JPY bounced perfectly and reached our profit target, time to turn bearish

Price bounced perfectly above our buying level and reached our profit target. We now turn bearish below strong resistance at 122.21 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a drop to at least 121.11 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is approaching 92% resistance from where we expect a reaction.

Sell below 122.21. Set stop loss at 122.68 and take profit at 121.11.

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USD/CHF remains bullish above major support

We are bullish above 0.9850 support (long-term gold ratio retracement, price action) for a bounce to at least 0.9958 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above 6%.

Buy above 0.9850. Set stop loss at 0.9825 and take profit at 0.9958.

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