NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 3, 2018

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Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed for a bearish breakout of the depicted consolidation range (0.7170 and 0.7350). Target levels have been achieved around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears. That's why bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

The quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred.

This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again.

This was followed by a recent bullish reversal pattern (123 pattern) which enhances the bullish side of the market. Recent signs of bullish weakness were manifested on the chart.

The bulls are failing to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6820. Bullish fixation above 0.6820 should be maintained in order to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6900 and 0.6980.

Trade Recommendations:

The price zone 0.6750-0.6800 still constitutes a demand zone to be considered for a valid BUY entry.

Bullish persistence above 0.6820 is needed to provide enough bullish momentum towards 0.6900 then probably 0.6980.

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Strong data on wages will support the dollar

Today, the central event of the day will be the release of data from the US labor market. Whether they will influence the markets or not, we will learn in the afternoon, but the fact that this will lead to a noticeable revival in the foreign exchange market is definite.

According to the forecast, the US economy will have to get 193,000 new jobs in July, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.9% from 4.0%. It is important to note that the June values of the indicator were traditionally strong, showing an increase of 213,000, but strangely enough, they did not, in themselves, cause the movements in the markets, namely, the figures for the average hourly wage were this driver.

This market behavior is probably due to the fact that investors are "used" to strong values of employment indicators, and the Fed itself now focuses its attention not on this, but rather, it looks at the overall dynamics of economic growth and production indicators and, of course, the behavior of inflation. It is here that we should pay attention to the change in the average hourly wage, the values of which will be presented today. This indicator is actually one of the components of inflation, therefore, the growth of wages, according to monetary theory, will affect the expenditure of the population, which will contribute to higher inflationary pressures.

It is expected that in July, it will add 0.3% against the increase in June by 0.2%. The annual value of the indicator should maintain a growth rate of 2.7%. In our opinion, if the data proves to be higher than the forecast, it will have a general local wide support for the exchange rate of the American currency. At the same time, if they go below expectations, it can trigger profit taking in the dollar and lead to its decline. But in general, if you assess the likely movements of currency pairs, where there is a dollar, then most likely, the overall lateral dynamics will continue.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair is trading lower with the expectation of positive data from the US labor market, as well as the positive dynamics of average wages. Crossing at the price of mark 1.1580 opens a couple of ways for further fall to 1.1500-10.

The GBPUSD pair is trading above the 1.3000 level. If this mark is overcome on a wave of good data for the dollar and news on economic statistics, we can expect the price to fall to 1.2900. The pressure on sterling is also still the result of the meeting of the Bank of England, which made it clear that it is not worthwhile to expect the continuation of the rate hike in the near future.

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Bitcoin analysis for August 03, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found that sellers are in control and the resistance at the price of $7.383 held successfully. I also found a breakout of the trading range in the background, which is another sign of the weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $7.112.

Support/Resistance

$7.340 – Intraday resistance

$7.258– Intraday support

$7.112 – Objective target

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Analysis of Gold for August 03, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,204.17. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found that price did fake breakout of the yesterday's low at the price of $1,206.70, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,211.55 and at the price of $1,216.30.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,216.48

R2: $1,225.45

R3: $1,230.48

Support levels:

S1: $1,202.50

S2: $1,197.60

S3: $1,188.48

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for August 03, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2975. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found that price has stopped at the support 1 (1.2977), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3012 and at the price of 1.3050.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3090

R2: 1.3163

R3: 1.3200

Support levels:

S1: 1.2980

S2: 1.2940

S3: 1.2868

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Banking zones GBP/USD 03.08.18

For the third week, the pair forms a medium-term accumulation zone. Movement within this zone implies working from the top boundary with short trades towards the depreciation of the pound.

After the formation of the bank compilation zone in the current environment, the rate fell by almost 1% which indicates the absence of large limit orders on the way of reduction. The main target of decline is the July low at 1.2957, testing this level will require partial or full fixation of the short position. Open sales from the limits of the banking compilation zone can be transferred to a breakeven. For those who do not yet have a position, favorable prices for sales will be located slightly lower. It is important to understand that any upward movement at this stage is a correction and provides an opportunity to enter into sales.

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Sales from current marks are no longer profitable, as the risk-to-profit ratio is less than 1 to 3. For profitable sales, you must wait for growth to one of the significant resistance levels.

The cancellation model of the fall will be the absorption of yesterday's decline during the trading sessions today and the closing of the American session above the bank compilation zone. The probability of implementing the pattern is 30%, which cannot be considered a trade. If the pair continues to fall from current marks and will test the July low today, then the reaction to the 1.2957 level will be significant. If the demand sharply grows and the US session closes above the level, then the formation of the medium-term accumulation zone will continue next week, and the probability of a return to the bank compilation area will increase to 50%.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for August 3, 2018

EUR/AUD has been volatile and corrective recently after an impulsive bullish counter-trend momentum which is expected to push lower in the coming days. EUR has been struggling to maintain momentum in the market as of the weak fundamentals and Trade War tensions which lead the market sentiment to shift away from EUR to AUD.

Today EURO Final Services PMI report was published with a slight decrease to 54.2 which was expected to be unchanged at 54.4 and Retail Sales report is yet to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%. Moreover, Italian, French, German and Spanish PMI report was quite mixed showing no definite indication for further momentum in the coming days.

On the AUD side, Today AUD Retail Sales report was published unchanged at 0.4% which was expected to decrease to 0.3% and AIG Service Index report was published with a decrease to 53.6 from the previous figure of 63.0.

As of the current scenario, despite the mixed economic reports on the AUD side today, it gained impulsive momentum over EURO in the process which does indicate the weakness of the EURO in comparison to AUD. As AUD maintains the optimistic approach further, more downward momentum in the pair is expected.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently rejecting off the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line from where it is expected to push lower towards 1.5650 area. If the price manages to break below 1.5650 with a daily close in the coming days then further bearish momentum with a target towards 1.53 area is expected. On the other hand, if the price rejects the bears off the 1.5650 area and manages to push higher it is expected to proceed higher with a target towards 1.59 area. As the price remains below 1.59 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 1.5650, 1.5300

RESISTANCE: 1.5900, 1.6000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE AND CORRECTIVE

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for August 03, 2008

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.7387.

The daily strong resistance of the AUD/USD pair is seen at the price of 0.7474 (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels). The AUD/USD pair dropped from the level of 0.7474 towards 0.7348. But, the price rebounded from the bottom of 0.7348 to trade around the spot of 0.7474 again. The resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7474, 0.7513 and 0.7554. Moreover, the price area of 0.7474/0.7513 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7474 and 0.7257. If the AUD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7474, the market will decline further to 0.7302 as the first target. This would suggest the bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7257 so as to test the daily support 3. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7550, then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Banking areas EUR/USD 03.08.18

The pair continues to form a medium-term accumulation zone. In the current environment, the next compilation zone was formed. Movement from the zone had a strong drop in the rate, which indicates a downward priority at the end of the current rate and the beginning of the next week.

After the formation of the next compilation zone, the course began a sharp fall without forming the slightest corrective movements. This indicates that large limit orders were withdrawn, which stopped the decline last week. The immediate target of the reduction is the July minimum at 1.1575, where the fate of the current bearish impulse will be determined. The appearance of a large offer and the closing of trades above the level of 1.1575 will indicate the possible continuation of the medium-term flat and return to the bank compilation zone in the future.

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The type of reaction may be different, but the closing of the American session above the July low will be an important factor. This will give a foothold, from which you can build a trading plan on Monday.

The continuation model will become relevant if the pair can break through and consolidate below 1.1575 at today's US session. This will open the way for further decline in the medium term. Using the location of the banking compilation areas, it can be concluded that the consolidation below the July low opens the way for a decline to the next support level 1.1526, formed in June. This will indicate the expansion of the range to a long-term and will record the remaining sales.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 03, 2018

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As expected, the USD/CAD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.3048. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3048 to the bottom around 1.2974. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3094 followed by 1.3132, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2974. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3048 and 1.2974; for that, we expect a range of 74 pips (1.3048 - 1.2974). If the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the minor resistance level of 1.3048, the market will decline further to 1.3048. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.2974 with a view to testing the daily major support. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.3094, then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Trading plan for 03/08/2018

The major currencies spent the night in consolidation, which means the EUR/USD stopped at 1.16, and USD/JPY drifted at 111.70. The market has maintained the strength of the dollar from the New York session and now awaits patience with the NFP report. In a wider sense, the sentiment deteriorates, which is reflected in the strengthening of the dollar to emerging markets. Trade wars remain in the foreground; loses Chinese yuan to 6.88 per dollar.

Retail sales in June from Australia increased by 0.4% m/m /, a bit more than expected 0.3%. AUD / USD slightly raised after data to 0.7370, where it stays up to now. But the market sentiment favors USD, so increases may be temporary.

In the stock market, it was red with the pessimism of Wall Street. Japanese Nikkei225 drops by 0.1% and Chinese Shanghai Composite loses 0.4%.

Oil WTI is slightly off the mark after yesterday's rally triggered by the report suggesting that US crude stocks will soon begin to fall after surprising increases in recent weeks. WTI is now trading around 68.8 USD.

On Friday, the 3rd of August, the main event of the day is the US job market report in form of the NFP-Payrolls and Unemployment Rate figures. Moreover, the global investors should take a look at the CPI data from Switzerland, PMI Services and Composite PMI data from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK and the whole Eurozone, Trade Balance and Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data from Canada. No speeches are scheduled for today.

EUR/USD analysis for 03/08/2018:

The market consensus for the July reading of the NFP-Payrolls data is set at the level of 193k jobs, which is a 20k job less than last time. The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop from 4.0% to 3.9% and the Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase slightly from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis (the yearly basis should remain unchanged at 2.7%). The Participation Rate (refers to the number of people who are either employed or are actively looking for work) was reported at 62.9% last time, so this will the point of reference for the today's reading.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the NFP-Payrolls data are released. The market remains locked in a horizontal consolidation between the levels of 1.1574-1.1745 in oversold conditions. In a case of a worse than expected NFP data ( ie. below 194k), the price might spike up towards the upper range boundary. In a case of a better than expected NFP data (ie. above 194k and above 213k), the price might fall further and break below the support at the level of 1.1574. The support for the price will then be seen at the level of 1.1540, which is an important technical support level. Please notice, that the recent breakout below the golden trend line clearly favors the downward scenario, which might result in a broader appreciation of the USD across the board.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 03, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Retail Sales m/m, Italian Retail Sales m/m, Italian Industrial Production m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Spanish Services PMI, and French Gov Budget Balance. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1642.

Strong Resistance:1.1635.

Original Resistance: 1.1624.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1613.

Target Inner Area: 1.1586.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1559.

Original Support: 1.1548.

Strong Support: 1.1537.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1530.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 03, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.30.

Resistance. 2: 112.08.

Resistance. 1: 111.86.

Support. 1: 111.58.

Support. 2: 111.36.

Support. 3: 111.15.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Global macro overview for 03/08/2018

A weekly report by the US Department of Labor on the number of applications for unemployment benefits was published yesterday afternoon.

As reported by the Department of Labor, the number of pre-declared unemployed in the week ending on July 28 this year (Unemployment Claims) was 218,000, which means an increase of 1,000 compared to the previous week. The surveyed economists, however, expected an increase of up to 220,000.

On the other hand, the four-week average dropped, amounting to 214,500, which means a decrease of 3500 compared to the moving average of the previous week.

A positive overtone of this publication was also supported by the fact that the number of continuation applications for unemployment benefits (Continuing Claims) in the week ending on July 28, fell to 1,724,000 from 1,747 000 a week earlier. The forecasts assumed, however, that the number of continuing jobless claims will increase to 1,750,000, so this data was also better than expected.

That was the first part of the US job market report, the second part will be published today in form of NFP-Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.

Let's now take a look at USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame after the first part of the US job data was posted. The market has failed to break through the technical resistance at the level of 112.17 and the price made a Doji like candlestick formation. Since then, the market dropped towards the technical support at the level of 111.20 and bounced a little, but no new high was made. The intraday local high is seen at the level of 111.77 and this will be the point of reference for the NFP data today. The market conditions remain neutral as the traders await the NFP data to be released.

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Global macro overview for 03/08/2018

The Bank of England raised the main interest rate by 25 bps to 0.75% in line with expectations, thanks to which for the first time since 2009 they were above 0.50%. Although almost everyone expected the increase, it was hardly anyone predicted that all MPC members would support it. Ultimately, however, the entire nine signaled the need for such a move. In addition, in the statement of monetary policy, there was a statement that "further hikes will be needed", which gave the pound another impulse for growth. The GBP appreciation did not last too long: a hawkish increase in interest rates, the announcement of a desire to further normalize monetary policy in the future and a positive outlook on economic forecasts proved to be insufficient. During the BoE press conference, BoE Governor Mark Carney was asked about the condition of business investments. He admitted that there are signs of their slowdown caused by fears about the future and macroeconomic landscape after the divorce of the UK with the EU. This statement had a very negative impact on the moods of the bulls, allowing the bear to charge GBP towards daily lows and started a broad weakening across the board.

In the other news, the latest PMI results for the construction sector in the UK were published. Analysts assumed that the July PMI would slow down to 52.8 from 53.1 previously. The final result at 55.8 turned out to be a positive surprise. It is also worth noting that it is the highest indicator since May 2017. The business activity of British construction companies has significantly increased, which was supported by the fastest growth in jobs for more than two and a half years. Housing construction is developing at the sharpest pace since December 2015. The momentum of new orders growth and the creation of new jobs is also gaining momentum.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the BoE interest rate decision and Carney comments, the pair has broken below the blue trend line support around the level of 1.3095 and plummet further towards the next technical support at the level of 1.3050. This one was violated as well and finally, the price has found a support around the level of 1.3007. Currently, the bulls are trying to bounce from the support, but negative and weak momentum indicates this is only a temporary bounce. The key technical support zone is seen between the levels of 1.2955 - 12990.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for August 3, 2018

EUR/CAD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains it formed last week since the bullish rejection off the 1.5450 area with a daily close. While the EURO is struggling with the recent economic reports, CAD has gained momentum despite the tension growing because of Trade Wars on both countries.

Recently CAD GDP Report was published with a significant increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1% which did provide the necessary push required for the CAD to continue its momentum against EUR in the process. Today CAD Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to increase to -2.3B from the previous figure of -2.8B.

On the other hand, EURO Final Services PMI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 54.4 and Retail Sales is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%. Moreover, there are a series of economic report on German, Italian and French Services PMI which is expected to be unchanged, providing no indication of further momentum in the process.

As of the current scenario, CAD has been quite positive with the recent economic reports and still quite optimistic with the forecasts of upcoming economic reports while EUR is expected to struggle further with indecisive unchanged value and figures. To sum up, CAD is expected to gain further momentum over the EURO in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently bounced off the dynamic level of 20 EMA before becoming impulsive with the bearish gains in the process. The trend has been bearish and currently expected to push lower towards 1.50 support area from where certain bullish intervention may be observed which can lead to certain bullish momentum in the coming days. On the other hand, if the price manages to break below 1.50 area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to extend further with target towards 1.4850 in the future.

SUPPORT: 1.50

RESISTANCE: 1.5450

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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Bitcoin analysis for 03/08/2018

According to court documents, former Bitcoin trader and cryptocurrency operator from Arizona in the United States was sentenced to 41 months in prison. The federal judges issued a conviction on Wednesday after the jury condemned Thomas Mario Costanzo for five charges of money laundering. The verdict will take into account the time spent in detention since April 2017.

The federal agents carried out a man's detention last year on suspicion of illegal possession of ammunition and money laundering through the Bitcoin stock exchange he ran.

The evidence presented later in the court showed that Costanzo had washed out USD 16,400 in two years through Bitcoin transactions - money received from a federal agent operating undercover who told him that the funds came from heroin and cocaine traffickers.

"When the undercover federal agents turned to Costanzo and told him they were drug dealers, Costanzo provided them with Bitcoins and told them it was a great way to limit their contact with law enforcement agencies " - we read in the publication.

Costanzo was also found guilty of buying drugs using Bitcoins and using the stock market to help other people buy drugs without enforcing the authentication procedures of their clients. As part of the ruling issued on Wednesday, the court also ruled that 80 Bitcoins, which Costanzo had provided to secret agents, would be forfeited.

Let's now take a look at the BTC/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern did not last for long as the bears took the control over the market once again and the price broke out below the level of 38% Fibo at $7,405. So far the intraday low was made at the level of $7,246, but it looks like the bears want to test the technical support at the level of $7,176 as well. Please notice the 50% Fibo level is very close to this support and pice might spike down to hit this level. The market conditions remain slightly oversold, so a corrective bounce higher might occur anytime now.

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AUD/JPY Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

AUD/JPY is approaching its support at 81.90 (61.8% Fibonacci extension x2, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where we expect the price to rise to its resistance at 82.86 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 4.1% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

AUD/JPY is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 81.90. Stop loss at 81.30. Take profit at 82.86.

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GBP/JPY Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

GBP/JPY is approaching its support at 144.72 (100%, 100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement x2, horizontal overlap support) where it is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 146.95 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 4.8% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

GBP/JPY is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 144.72. Stop loss 143.72. Take profit at 146.95.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 3, 2018

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EUR/NZD is finally showing some strength. A break above resistance at 1.7205 seems imminent and a clear break above this resistance confirms that red wave iii higher to 1.7510 is in motion. Longer term much higher levels remain expected.

Short-term support now is seen at 1.7180 and again at 1.7130 but they will likely not come into play.

R3: 1.7305

R2: 1.7268

R1: 1.7207

Pivot: 1.7180

S1: 1.7130

S2: 1.7116

S3: 1.7106

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above resistance at 1.7205 and use the same stop at 1.7110.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 3, 2018

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EUR/JPY disappointingly moved back below support at 129.68, which has forced us to review the short-term count for the rally from the 124.59 low. This review leaves us with two possible scenarios.

1: We have seen wave i rally from 124.59 to 130.27 and wave ii was a simple deep correction to 126.61, that corrected 61.8% of wave i. The rally that followed wave ii from 126.61 to 131.99 is counted as wave i/ of one lesser degree and the ongoing decline is counted as wave ii/, which now is re-testing the 50 - 61.8% corrective target-area between 128.66 - 129.30. This count is slightly preferred, but only just.

2: The second count shows that wave i rallied from 124.59 to 130.27 and everything since the 130.27 is part of an expanded flat wave ii. If this count is correct, the support at 128.66 will be broken for a dip to 126.01 to complete wave ii and set the stage for a strong extended rally in wave iii.

We slightly prefer the first scenario, but it needs to prove itself.

R3: 131.15

R2: 130.53

R1: 130.32

Pivot: 129.62

S1: 129.30

S2: 129.09

S3: 128.66

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 129.50 was hit for a 78 pips loss. We will buy EUR again at 128.95 and place our stop at 128.50.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on EUR/USD for August 3, 2018

EUR/USD has broken below the triangle support at 1.16. The price is already below that level following the rejection at the Kumo where we warned bulls for another try to challenge the 1.16 support area. Bulls were warned that as long as the price was below 1.1730-1.1760 trend would be controlled by bears.

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Red lines - triangle pattern

Blue line - important low

The EUR/USD got rejected at the Ichimoku cloud and at the upper triangle boundary. We have been saying that when the price reaches the upper triangle boundary and gets rejected or waits there, we should turn bearish. Only a break above 1.1730-1.1760 would change the trend to bullish. Support is now at 1.15 area. Resistance remains at 1.17-1.1730. Breaking this triangle to the downside is very bearish EUR/USD targeting 1.13-1.12.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 3, 2018

The Gold price is making new lower lows towards $1,204-207 as expected after breaking below $1,217. Support levels are broken one after the other. Gold price remains in a bearish trend, oversold, inside the downward sloping wedge pattern. Next target is at $1,193.

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Black lines - wedge pattern

Red line - RSI Support

Blue line - RSI Resistance

The Gold price is making new lows. The Daily RSI is not. This is a bullish divergence. This is a bullish sign. But just a warning for bears. Not a reversal sign. For a reversal, we will first need a break above $1,225-28 area. Next support and the target area is at $1,193.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 2, 2018

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EUR/JPY is currently testing the 50 - 61.8% corrective target of blue wave i between 129.88 - 130.12. We expect this support-zone max. 129.68 will be able to support EUR/JPY for the next impulsive rally towards 131.69 and 133.26 as the next sub-targets on the way higher to 135.74 and longer term much higher.

An unexpected break below 129.68 will be slightly disappointing, but support at 129.09 should continue to protect the downside for a continuation higher.

R3: 131.15

R2: 130.68

R1: 130.30

Pivot: 130.00

S1: 129.88

S2: 129.68

S3: 129.48

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 130.28 with our stop placed at 129.50. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR in the 129.88 - 130.12 support-zone and use the same stop at 129.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for August 2, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite indecisive and low on liquidity today after the impulsive bearish pressure leading the price below $8,000 area with a daily close. Despite the recent bearish pressure, the bias is still bullish as the price is residing above a 50% retrace zone of a previous bullish move and also above $6,500 support area. The dynamic level of 20 Ema, Tenkan and Kijun line is currently holding the price as confluence support which is expected to lead to further bullish pressure in the coming days. As of the current scenario, the price is expected to push higher with a target towards $10,000 which is expected to inject impulsive momentum after $8,000 is taken out with a daily close. As the price remains above $6,500 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 6,500, 7,500

RESISTANCE: 8,000, 10,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE AND CORRECTIVE

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Bitcoin analysis for August 03, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found that price is trading inside of the trading range between the price of $7.740 (resistance) and at the price of $7.414 (support). Anyway, I found a breakout of the pivot level, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $7.413 and at the price of $7.325.

Support/Resistance

$7.652 – Intraday resistance

$7.533– Pivot level

$7.413 – Objective target 1

$7.325 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 2, 2018

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until the bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears. That's why bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

The quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred.

This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again.

This was followed by a recent bullish reversal pattern (123 pattern) which enhances the bullish side of the market. Recent signs of bullish weakness were manifested on the chart.

The bulls are failing to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6820. Bullish fixation above 0.6820 should be maintained in order to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6900 and 0.6980.

Trade Recommendations:

The price zone 0.6750-0.6800 still constitutes a demand zone to be considered for a valid BUY entry.

Bullish persistence above 0.6820 is needed to provide enough bullish momentum towards 0.6900 then probably 0.6980.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 2, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by a bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.

Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur again towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where another episode of bearish pressure was initiated this week.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the consolidation range of 1.1750-1.1520 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish breakout above 1.1750 as a valid bullish signal. Bullish targets would be located around 1.1850 and 1.1990.

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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for August 2. The Bank of England can seriously affect the wave counting

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Wave marking analysis:

During the trades on August 1, the GBP/USD pair traded in a very narrow range with minimal changes in the price. The meeting of the Bank of England was held on Thursday, the market activity is expected to grow, which can lead to strong movements. Thus, Thursday can dot the "I". The pair remains inside the downward corridor and is unlikely to be able to leave it on the day. But, for example, the breakthrough of the low of the supposed wave 5, at 3, in a will lead to a complication of the descending section of the trend and the need to make adjustments to the current wave layout. Under conditions of minimal market activity, no changes or refinements can be added to the markup.

Targets for buying:

1,3301-161,8% Fibonacci (the highest Fibonacci grid)

Goals for sales:

1.2962 – 200.0% by Fibonacci

1,2809 – 261.8% Fibonacci retracement

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair remains within the framework of building a downward trend segment, despite the fact that the wave 3, a supposedly completed its construction. The break of the upper generatrix of the downward corridor of the line will warn about the readiness of the instrument to build an upward trend segment. After that, it will be possible to consider the purchase of the pair, but after refining the wave marking. I recommend to resume the pair's sales after a successful attempt to break the low of July 19.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD Bank of England: the fate of the interest rate - in the hands of Brexit

So, the Bank of England predictably increased the interest rate and finally put an equal sign between further tightening of monetary policy and the fate of Brexit. This fact completely leveled out all the positive from the rate hike, after which the pound, paired with the dollar, went to conquer the 29th figure with a claim for repeated testing of annual lows. Looking ahead, it is worth noting that the pressure on the British currency will not weaken until Brussels and London come to a deal. Now this is obvious and in general, it is a fact that was confirmed by the English Central Bank.

However, not everything is as bad as it seems at first glance. The head of the Bank of England Mark Carney noted the growth of key macroeconomic indicators, and even allowed the probability of "overheating" in the economy if the rates remain in the future at a low level. This factor, he argued, is raising the rate to 0.75%, that is, to the level of 2009. But the further prospects of monetary policy look vague, as well as the prospects of the "divorce" process of Britain with the EU.

The main conclusion that can be drawn from the results of today's meeting is the realization that the rate will be raised next time not earlier than March 2019. And this is provided, if London and Brussels still reach an agreement, which is too early to talk about. Even with the active growth of inflation indicators and other macroeconomic indicators, the English regulator will hold a pause until Britain withdraws from the EU. As we know, the date of Brexit is determined until the minute - 00:00 hours on March 29, 2019. But on what terms the country will withdraw from the Alliance, the question is still open.

It was this factor that became the theme of the August meeting of the British regulator. The possible absence of a trade deal frankly frightens regulators. According to Carney, the atmosphere of uncertainty already reduces the level of business investment. And in case of a dysfunctional outcome, like the trend, it will increase at times. The head of the regulator actually tied the outcome of the "divorce proceedings" with the prospects of monetary policy, so now traders will analyze the news background on Brexit from the point of view of a possible reaction from the English Central Bank. Actually, Brexit was previously the number one topic for traders of the GBP / USD pair but now the Bank of England has officially recognized the interconnection of foreign policy processes with its own determination.

By the way, Mark Carney was concerned not only with questions of British foreign policy: American actions concern him not less than Brexit. Today, he said that the global trade war will become a catalyst for slowing the growth of the global economy, with all the ensuing consequences. Based on these words, we can conclude that further escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China will indirectly affect the degree of determination of members of the English regulator.

From all this we can conclude that in the coming months, the Bank of England will react to an external fundamental background, regardless of the dynamics of domestic macroeconomic statistics. Naturally, the growth of key indicators will increase the likelihood that in the case of a "happy end" in the history of Brexit, the regulator will tighten monetary policy at a faster pace. However, this factor will have an indirect character and short-term impact on the GBP / USD pair.

The market quite reasonably reacted to the results of the August meeting in a negative light, despite the rate increase. The situation with Brexit is now at a crucial stage: the outcome of the next round of the negotiation process, which will take place in mid-August, largely determines the fate of the deal. At the moment, there is silence in the information field about the prospects of Brexit. Representatives of London and Brussels vied with each other that the chaotic scenario is disastrous and will only bring losses to both sides. However, at the same time, both Europeans and Britons show minimal flexibility not to lose in the final score. Until when such a "nerve play" will last, nobody knows, but most experts pin their hopes on the August talks, in which Theresa May will personally take a part of.

Recently appointed Foreign Minister of Britain, Jeremy Hunt went to Berlin last week to "prepare the ground" for future negotiations, but there is no information about the results of this visit. It is worth noting that Theresa May may relate the last hope for the "soft" Brexit, despite its reputation. According to the latest opinion polls, May's most likely successor is the odious Boris Johnson, who resigned from his post as Foreign Minister, disagreeing with her policies. His coming to power will almost certainly mean a "hard" Brexit with all the consequences - including factors for the British currency. Therefore, much has been put on the map of the August talks - both the political future of Theresa May, the prospects for a "divorce" process, and the pace of tightening monetary policy by the English regulator.

Thus, the pound will be subject to special influence from the foreign policy news background in the coming months. All other fundamental factors will play a secondary role.

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Technically, the GBP / USD pair could not impulse to break through an important support level of 1.3000 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). It is likely that the pair will be able to bear it tomorrow, after the publication of Non-farm. If the US data disappoint, the pair has a chance for corrective growth, the upper path of which is limited by the mark 1.3150 (the middle line of the indicator Bollinger Bands on D1).

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GBP/USD forecast for August 2, 2018

GBP/USD

Expectations for the Bank of England's decision on monetary policy that was held on Thursday kept the British pound from noticeable movements on Wednesday.

Technically, the price is ready to decline, this is indicated by the consolidation of the price under the trend line of the Kruzenshtern and even if it is weak, but the reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator before the border with the growth zone. The goal of the decline is the trend line (1.3014), the breakout of which opens a further path to 1.2800. But everything will be decided after the statement Of the Bank of England at the rate (14:00 GMT).

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The general expectation of the market is a rate increase from 0.50% to 0.75%. External and internal economic conditions, including, of course, the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a trade deal, clearly indicate the prematurity of such expectations. The only reason why the BoE may decide to raise the rate is because it is constantly being reproached by the investment community in slowing down, delaying such an increase.

As the main scenario, we accept that the regulator will keep the policy unchanged. In this case, we are waiting for the price of 1.2800 for a few days.

In the event of rate increases the magnitude of the growth rates is difficult to determine. Suspect persistent publication in the business media that, say, the rate increase has already been taken into account by the market and the growth may be small and short-lived. A look at the falling pound chart since mid-April does not give place to such an idea about the consideration of the price rate increase. Perhaps, in case of a rate hike, the pound will be sold by strategic investors. It remains to wait for developments.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for August 2. The pair remains inside the narrowing corridor. A breakthrough is approaching

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Wednesday, the currency pair EUR / USD fell by 30 percentage points, to the lower forming a tapering corridor of the line. Most likely, today, we are expected to test this line for strength and with a high probability of a breakthrough. If this assumption is true, then the pair will proceed to build the bearish wave 5 of the main trend. A failed attempt to break this line can throw the pair back to the top line. However, in any case, the moment of the pair's exit from the corridor is coming, after which we will learn the approximate trend for the coming days and weeks.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1507 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1444 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1834 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.1957 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The correction wave 4 still looks fully staffed, and there are no prerequisites for its complication now. Several attempts to break the top line of the corridor failed, so now I recommend to continue to form sales with the targets of 1.1507 and 1.1444, which is equivalent to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci, built on the size of wave 4. I recommend that you go back to shopping after the breakthrough of the maximum expected wave 4.

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The daily review of the GBP / USD as of August 2, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

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GBP / USD

The pair is trying to get rid of the daily bullish advantage and continue the decline. But a slight decrease, within the limits of correction, can hardly help the bears now. They need to update the correction minimum (1.2957) and secure the fastening below. All the rest will contribute to consolidation, during which players on the rise can accumulate strength for breaking through the important resistance concentrated in the area of 1.3214-25 (week Tenkan + Senkou Span B + day Fibo Kijun + daytime Senkou Span A).

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Today, the target for the breakdown of the H1 cloud has been worked out. Among the downside reference points, there is now also a target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud (1.3054-36). But these are all intermediate benchmarks that are unlikely to bring victory to players on a slide, the main interest of which is concentrated in the area of 1.2957. Uncertainty and deceleration of the last days made the clouds of lower dimes the main center of attraction, here are now concentrated different levels of older time intervals. As a result, the most significant resistance today can be noted at 1.3112 - 1.3140 - 1.3180 - 1.3225.

Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences as of August 2. British pound did not react to the Fed meeting

4h

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The pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the US dollar and began to fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% - 1.3047. Brewing divergences on August 2 are not observed in any indicator. The fall of the pair's rate from the Fibo level of 200.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.3301. Fixing the quotes below the Fibo level of 200.0% will increase the probability of continuing the decline towards the corrective level of 261.8%.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018 and April 17, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair performed a fixation below the Fibo level of 38.2% - 1.3112. As a result, the process of falling can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 23.6% - 1.3052. The bullish divergence in the CCI indicator is maturing, its formation will allow us to count on some growth of the pair. The consolidation of the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 38.2% can be similarly interpreted as a turn in favor of the British currency and expect some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% - 1.3159.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018 and July 19, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be opened with a target of 1,3159 and a stop loss order under the correction level of 38.2% if a close above the Fibo level is 1.3112 (hourly chart), especially in conjunction with the bullish divergence.

The GBP / USD pair can now be traded with a target of 1.3052 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 38.2%, as there was a close under the Fibo level of 1.3112. Hold sales can be before the formation of bullish divergence (maturing CCI).

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EUR / USD. August 2. Trading system "Regression channels". The results of the Fed meeting did not impress traders

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

–°CI: -75.7375

The currency pair EUR / USD on August 1 continued a slight downward movement, as indicated by the blue bars of the indicator Heikin Ashi. The Fed meeting was extremely boring. The key rate of the Fed remained unchanged in the range of 1.75% - 2.00%, which, in principle, was expected. In the accompanying statement of the regulator, there were good growth rates of the economy and a stable state of the labor market. Thus, nothing that could stir up the markets and make traders act more actively did not sound. Most experts agree that the rate will be raised at the next meeting of the Fed. The probability of this at the moment is about 90%. Thus, the "swing" in the market, at least on the EUR / USD instrument, may persist in the coming days. In the near future, the pair may fall to the level of 1.1620, about which a turn may occur upward. Traders, however, have to wait for new information from Trump, Draghi and new macroeconomic reports from the US and Europe, which today are not scheduled for any (important). Thus, today the volatility of the instrument may remain low and only the Bank of England can introduce some disharmony in the current state of things.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1597

S2 - 1.1536

S3 - 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1658

R2 = 1.1719

R3 = 1.1780

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD was fixed below the moving average line. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in short positions or open new ones with the targets of 1.1620 and 1.1597. Near the level of 1.1620 there can be a technical turn of the pair.

It is recommended to open a buy order not earlier than consolidating the bulls above the moving average line with the targets of 1,1719 and 1,1745. In this case, for some time, the initiative will go to the bulls, but in general, the "swing" on the instrument is preserved.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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