EUR/NZD analysis for January 27, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.5267 in a a volume below the average. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5225 (currently on the test). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe lack of supply at the price of 1.4887 which caused price to start with bullish movement. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. Any larger supply in a high volume may confirm further bearish phase. Anyway, if we see larger demand on the market, we may expect testing the level of 1.5430.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5219


R2: 1.5283


R3: 1.5386


Support levels:


S1: 1.5013


S2: 1.4950


S3: 1.4846


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% is on the test.


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Gold analysis for January 27, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1,288.33 in a very high volume. According to the daily time frame, we have weak supply in a volume below the average, what caused price to start with an upward movement. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe an end of bearish corrective phase (abcd). Our Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1,275.00 nas been held successfully. Be careful when selling gold and watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows.


Daily Fibonacci pivot points :


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,294.75


R2: 1,300.31


R3: 1,309.33


Support levels :


S1: 1,276.71


S2: 1,271.15


S3: 1,262.13


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 27, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen amid diminished risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 6.84% to 15.52; S&P 500 rose 0.26% to close at 2,057.09 overnight) as investors took the victory of the Greek leftish party Syriza in their stride. Investors speculate it will pursue its anti-austerity agenda without Greece leaving the eurozone, while prospect of the European Central Bank making monthly bond purchases of €60 billion continued to buoy risk sentiment. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.519% versus 0.499% late Friday), and demand from Japan's importers, and ultraloose the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports and softer USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.97 versus 95.32 early Monday) as the Dallas Fed business activity index fell to -4.4 in January from +3.5 in December. The gains are also restrained by the caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary decision on Wednesday.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.85 and the second target at 119.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 117.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 116.80. The pivot point is at 117.50.


Resistance levels:

118.85

119.35

119.75



Support levels:

17.20

116.80

116.50


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 27, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the franc sales on cross trades versus major currencies, the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the SNB's CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the softer USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.97 versus 95.32 early Monday) as the Dallas Fed business activity index fell to -4.4 in January from +3.5 in December, and by the caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary decision on Wednesday.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is in bearish mode, but stochastics is neutral.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9125 and the second target at 0.92. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8840. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.8750. The pivot point is at 0.8905.


Resistance levels:

0.9125

0.92

0.9250


Support levels:

0.8840

0.8750

0.87


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 27, 2015

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Overview :



  • The market of GBP/USD showed signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. Due to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.5147 and 1.4950, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait untill the sideways channel is passed through. Then the market will probably show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy deals are recommended above 1.4950 (represents the double bottom on the H1 chart) level with their first target at the level of 1.5077. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.5110 and further to the level of 1.5147. But it should be noticed that the level of 1.5147 will form a strong resistance which coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels at the same time frame. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.5147, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.5150. Regarding this, sell deals are recommended lower than the 1.5147 level with the first target at 1.5050 (the weekly pivot point). It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.4966.



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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 27, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a three-year low 0.7394 on Monday. It is undermined by the expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep its rates for longer. the pair is also weakened by the kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross and weak commodity prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the softer USD sentiment and receding risk aversion.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is at oversold levels; five and 15-day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.74. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 0.7325. The pivot point stands at 0.75. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7580 and the second target at 0.7625.


Resistance levels:

0.7580

0.7625

0.7635



Support levels:


0.74

0.7325

0.73


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 27, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in a lower range. It is supported by the improved euro sentiment, reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen amid diminished risk aversion and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports.


Technical comment:
the daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at the oversold levels; five and 15-day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 177.15. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 176.45. The pivot point stands at 179. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.45 and the second target at 180.15.


Resistance levels:

179.45

180.15

180.90


Support levels:

177.15

176.45

175.75


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 27, 2015

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Overview :



  • The market of USD/CHF is still showing signs of strength following the break below the level of 0.9285. Therefore, it will turn to a strong resistance. In s this case a stronger drop should be seen towards 0.8863 support for confirmation. Moreover, the trend is still below the three major resistances of 0.9125, 0.9285 and 0.9330, thus it will be a good sign to sell below 0.9285 and sell again below 0.9125. The Swissy is also quoted amid the promise to “sell unlimited euro” in order to support its currency. Hence, psychology level is set at 0.9285, and one should be patient to keep the trade untill the end because the USD/CHF pair is going to fall from the mentioned resistances. Thus, at 0.9285/0.9125 a strong level (resistances) will be formed providing a clear signal for deals with the target seen at the 0.8863 and 0.8752 levels. However, the stop loss is to be placed above the price of 0.9300.



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#USDX technical analysis for January 27, 2015

The Dollar index has given a short-term sell signal as its main component EURUSD is making a bigger than normal bounce to the upside.The longer-term trend remains bullish and for now we consider this pullback in the index as a short-term correction.


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The Dollar index has made a short-term top at 95.50 and is moving lower towards 94 support where the kijun-sen indicator is found. Breaking below 94 we have the cloud support at 92.75. Trend is bearish for the short-term as long as price is below 95.20.


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The longer-term trend remains bullish, but on the daily chart we have a sell signal that could justify a few days of pullback towards 93.75. Important support is found at 93-92 and it will be critical for the longer-term trend to see how market treats those levels.


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Gold technical analysis for January 27, 2015

Gold price remains in a short-term downtrend. The price, as I mentioned in previous posts, is in danger of falling towards $1,260 or even $1,220. It seems that this correction has started. Support at $1,270-75 is critical for the short-term trend.


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Red line = support trend line


Gold price is breaking below support trend line, and the Ichimoku cloud is now above the current price on the 30-minute chart. Short-term trend is bearish and, I believe, we are heading towards the 38% retracement just above $1,250. I prefer to stay neutral and avoid trading current price action as there is no clear structure.


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On the daily chart that I posted yesterday I expect price to move towards the tenkan-sen support near $1,265. If we break below this level we should expect price to move towards $1,220. Trend is short-term bearish.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 27, 2015

General overview for 27/01/2015 08:45 CET


The recent price action to the upside is rather choppy and does not look like a typical impulsive wave, but this kind of wave development might be a part of a structure called Ending Diagonal. The other clue comes from the bearish divergence between the price and momentum, that is diminishing as the price makes higher highs. That kind of market behavior might suggest that a local top for this market is near and any breakout below the level of 1.2309 would be first confirmation of this possibility.


Support/Resistance:


1.2496 - Swing High


1.2320 - Weekly Pivot


1.2309 - Intraday Support


1.2181 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


As long as the price stays above the level of 1.2309, choppy trading conditions are expected and daytraders should consider opening only a buy orders with SL just below this level, using any scalping strategy to gain 20-30 pips. Please, watch the golden channel breakout for a possible short trade opportunity if the level of 1.2400 is clearly violated.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 27, 2015

General overview for 27/01/2015 08:30 CET


The most important level that, if broken, could ignite the bullish wave progression to the upside has not been violated yet. This level is the intraday resistance at the level of 134.19. It looks like the market has made five waves to the upside and now it will try to test the intraday resistance at the level of 131.83. If this support is broken, then the next support is at the local swing low at the level of 130.14. Please notice, that the market is still trading inside the bearish zone and the corrective wave 4 black might still be in progress.


Support/Resistance:


128.22 - WS1


130.14 - Swing low


131.83 - Intraday Support


132.95 - Weekly Pivot


134.19 - Intraday Resistance


134.95 - WR1


137.63 - Technical Resistance


Trading recommendations:


Below the level of 134.19 choppy trading conditions are expected as the market might be making wave 4 black in shape of a triangle or any other corrective shape. This is why daytraders should consider opening only sell orders with SL just above this level, using any scalping strategy to gain 20-30 pips.


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Daily analysis of USDX for January 27, 2015

The USDX is still very bullish on the main time frames, such as the daily chart. Because of it, it's wise to wait for a bullish formation in order to follow the current bias on this instrument. We recommend to wait for a retracement to the support level of 94.18 and later we could see about a higher high pattern formation. On the other hand, the USDX could extend the fall until the 93.02 level, if the sellers take the flag during this week.


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On the H1 chart, the USDX found strong resistance at the level of 95.48. Besides, we can expect a consolidation very close to the support level of 94.38. Currently, we need to wait for a breakout at the resistance level of 95.48 to continue putting buy positions on this instrument and also, to follow the trend, that is currently supported by the bullish 200 SMA, that is pointing upwards. The MACD indicator is entering the positive territory.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.52 / 99.17


Dailychart's support levels: 94.18 / 93.02


H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.48 / 96.63


H1 chart's support levels: 94.38 / 94.02




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.48, take profit is at 96.63, and stop loss is at 94.32.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 27, 2015

During the last session, the GBP/USD pair had a recovery from the support tested at the 1.5025 level. Currently, the pair is still forming a lower low pattern in order to fall until the support level of 1.4853, but the fact is that a retracement could take place in the coming hours, as the GBP/USD pair is attracting buyers to the current price zone on the daily chart.


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From an intraday outlook, we can see the strength of the current bullish trend line that was drawn from the January 23's low. Now, the GBP/USD pair is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5084, where the 200 SMA is also located on the H1 chart. We cannot forget this pair could find solid dynamic resistance in that zone. If the GBP/USD pair does a pullback, the next target would be the psycological level of 1.5000.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5247 / 1.5491


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5025 / 1.4853


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5000 / 1.5084


H1 chart's support levels: 1.4927 / 1.4849




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4927, take profit is at 1.4849, and stop loss is at 1.5006.


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Forecast and trading recommendations on USD/JPY for January 27, 2015

The pair has been consolidating between 118.85 and 117.10. The 115.50 levels are helping the pair to push towards northward. The weekly support exists at 115.00 and 20Wsma. In case if the pair closes below 115.00, we can confirm the broadening top for the near and medium term. The rate hike bets favors on the US dollar. The policy makers have repeatedly announced their plan to raise interest rates during 2015.The pair closed and trading below 50Dsma and 118.70. In case the pair closes above 118.85, it can challenge 119.90 and 120.50. The weakness persists below 118.00. We recommend selling below 118.00 with the targets at 117.60 and 117.25. On a positional basis, until the pair holds at 117.00 and trades above 118.85, it can give another stellar show towards 120.00+. In case if the pair breaks below 117.00, it can extend its fall up to 115.00 and panic will be triggered below the 115.00 levels.


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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for January 27, 2015

After the Syriza party victory in Greece, the USD slips against the other major currencies. The euro managed to close in green after a 2-day strong fall. The Syriza leader has vowed to renegotiate the bailouts, which are worth 240bn euros. The euro fell to an 11-year low against the USD before the voting results. However, the election results give hopes that a compromise over Greece's bailout terms might be found. In yesterday's economic data, the Ifo business climate index also supported the euro. The index rose to 106.7 points in January from 105.5 points last month, marking its third successive increase


If we look from the technical view, the pair has weekly resistance at 1.1460 and 1.1600. The pair has intraday resistance at 1.1275 and 1.1300. On the h4 chart, the prices are facing strong resistance at 12ema levels. At yesterday's session, we recommended selling at 1.1200 with the targets at 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000, and 1.0700. But the pair took a turn from 1.1098 and made a high at 1.1295. In case if the pair manages to trade above 1.1300, the next resistance will exist at 1.1360 and 1.1450. The safe buying will trigger above 1.1300. The intraday support is set at 1.1230 and 1.1200. We recommend fresh selling below 1.1200. Use every rise to sell which favors the current trend.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on Gold for January 27, 2015

After Greece's election results, the metal lost almost 1% at yesterday's afternoon London session of a 5-month high. Traders have shifted their eyes on tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting. This year, the yellow metal has jumped 10% supported by the European factors like ECB's QE and Greek elections. After the election results, the yellow metal again lost its safe-heaven tag. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the optimistic USD put pressure on the yellow metal towards the down side. This week's US economic events are affecting the metal, like FOMC meeting, interest rate decision, and GDP data. As I recommended in my previous report, buying above $1,300.00 has not been triggered. We recommended selling below $1,283.00 with the target at $1,272.00. Today, at Asia's session the metal made a low at $1,272.00. In case if the metal breaks below $1,271.80 being January 19th low, it can extend its fall towards $1,269.00, $1,266.50, $1,262.50, and $1,255.00. In case a weekly close is below $1,266.00, bears will tighten their grip towards $1,255.00, $1,238.00, and $1,214.00. On the bullish front, we can expect strong upward momentum only above $1,307.00 towards $1,340.00. On the h4-chart, the metal fell below an hourly moving average and is trading below it. Until the prices trade and close below $1,297.50 and $1,300.00, bears will have an upper hand. But fresh selling will be triggered only below $1,271.00. The hourly resistance exists at $1,280.00, above this the $1,283.00 and $1,287.00 levels will act as strong resistance levels. For risky traders, buying will be triggered only above $1,287.00 levels.


NOTE:


Fresh selling only below $1,271.00.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 27, 2015

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When the European market opens, no economic news are expected today from the eurozone. The US will release a number of economic reports such as the Richmond Manufacturing Index, New Home Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, Flash Services PMI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.1289.


Strong Resistance:1.1283.


Original Resistance: 1.1272.


Inner Sell Area: 1.1261.


Target Inner Area: 1.1235.


Inner Buy Area: 1.1209.


Original Support: 1.1198.


Strong Support: 1.1187.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.1181.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 27, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y. The US will publish a number of economic reports such as Richmond Manufacturing Index, New Home Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, Flash Services PMI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3: 119.10.


Resistance. 2: 118.87.


Resistance. 1: 118.63.


Support. 1: 118.35.


Support. 2: 118.12.


Support. 3: 117.88.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 27, 2015

EUR/USD: After testing the support line at 1.1100, the EUR/USD pair bounced upwards by over 190 pips. The upward bounce pales into insignificance when compared to the overall bearish bias, which is now very strong. In other words, the current upward bounce is better seen as a clean opportunity to sell short as the price rallies in the context of a downtrend.


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USD/CHF: The outlook for the USD/CHF pair remains unchanged. The bias on this currently abnormal market is bearish but it is expected that the bullish correction would continue gradually in spite of occasional large bearish corrections. However, the upwards movement would be slow and gradual.


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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument challenged the accumulation territory at 1.5000, but the territory was successfully defended. The price bounced upwards after this, closing above the accumulation territory at 1.5050. However, the general outlook for the market is bearish, and it is expected that the price would come down very soon. The accumulation territory at 1.5000 would be challenged again.


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USD/JPY: The movement on this pair is not as strong as the movement on the EUR/JPY pair. However, the indication currently shows that short trades are not advisable right now, for further weakness in the Yen could cause the price to reach the supply level at 119.00.


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EUR/JPY: Just like the EUR/USD pair, this cross is also trying to rally in the context of the downtrend. The bearish outlook may be aided by continuous weakness in the Euro, but there is a possibility of the Yen becoming very weak; thus enabling a serious rally in the market.


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Forecast and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for January 27, 2015

The USD slips against the other major currencies. After Greece's election results, the USD took a back seat. Today, the focus has shifted to British preliminary GDP. On the USD side, consumer confidence, durable goods, and core durable orders are the key data ahead. The cable managed to close in green, but still trading at a 18-month low. The rate hike bets favors on the US dollar. The policy makers have repeatedly announced their plan to raise interest rates during 2015. But the bets on the rate hike from the BOE do not favor the Pound. This divergence can provide an optimistic view on the USD. Today, the cable opened and is trading in green. The prices are facing strong resistance at 34hrsma and the 61.8 fib level 1.5115 on the h4 chart. In case if the cable manages to breach above 1.5115, it can challenge towards 80.0 fib level at 1.5160 and the descending trend line on the h4 chart. The intraday supports are set at 1.5070, 1.5050, and 1.5030. On the h1-chart, the prices are consolidating between 1.5100 and 1.5070. The prices gave an upside breakout from a small trading range with higher lows and higher highs. In case, a h4 candle closes above 1.5115, we can expect some pullback rally covering towards 1.5160. The chances are remote. On the down side, the weakness persists below 1.5000 and the panic will be triggered below 1.4950 levels.


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