Indicator analysis. Daily review for the GBP / USD currency pair 17/11/2020

The pair on Monday, moving up, tested the pullback level of 61.8% at 1.3231 (blue dotted line) and went down, closing at 1.3192. Today, the upward movement may continue. News on the market is expected at 14:00 UTC (Pound) and 13:30 (Dollar)

Trend analysis (Fig. 1)

Today, the market will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.3192 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the goal of 1.3231 which is a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line). If this level is reached, continue working up with the target 1.3302 resistance line (white bold line).

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Figure 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

  • Indicator Analysis – up
  • Fibonacci Levels – up
  • Volumes – up
  • Candle Analysis – up
  • Trend Analysis – up
  • Bollinger Bands – up
  • Weekly Chart – up

General conclusion:

Today, the price from the level of 1.3192 (the closing of yesterday's candle), will try to continue moving up with the goal of 1.3231 which is a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line). If this level is reached, continue working up with the target 1.3302 resistance line (white bold line).

Unlikely scenario: Upward movement with a target of 1.3231 which is a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line). If this level is reached, work down with the target of 1.3159 to roll back the level of 23.6% (red dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair on November 17, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the market from the level of 1.1850 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) may continue to move upward with the goal of 1.1875, which is a 76.4% pullback level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price will continue to work upward with the target of 1.1920 - the upper fractal (red dotted line).

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Figure 1 (Daily Chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

  • Indicator analysis - up
  • Fibonacci levels - up
  • Volumes - up
  • Candlestick analysis - up
  • Trend analysis - up
  • Bollinger bands - up
  • Weekly chart - up

General conclusion:

Today, the price from the level of 1.1850 (closing yesterday's daily candlestick) can continue to move upward with the goal of 1.1875, which is a 76.4% pullback level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price will continue to work upward with the goal of 1.1920 - the upper fractal (red dotted line).

Unlikely scenario: when working upward, after reaching the 76.4% pullback level, which is 1.1875 (blue dotted line), the pair will work downward with the goal of 1.1798 - a pullback level of 38.2% (red dotted line).

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on November 17

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

The euro failed to grow actively yesterday, mainly due to the absence of economic data, except for Italy's CPI, which did not show anything new. The statements from the European Central Bank were also not noteworthy, so long positions in the EUR / USD pair saw only losses. Short positions from the level of 1.1836 also did not bring plenty of profit, as the quote only moved 15 pips down. This suggests that the EUR / USD pair is in a side channel, and is likely to remain there today.

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Trading recommendations for November 17

Data on US retail sales is scheduled to be published today, and if the report indicates a decline in the index, the euro will rise with renewed vigor, which will lead to new monthly highs in the EUR / USD pair. But if the data turns out disappointing, the pair will remain in a sideways channel, which it has been in since the beginning of this week. In any case, euro bulls are still dominating the market, so it is better to bet on the further strengthening of the pair.

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  • Open a long position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1870 (green line on the chart) and then take profit at the level of 1.1915. However, growth will occur only in the event of bad data on the US economy.
  • Open a short position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1847 (red line on the chart) and then take profit around the level of 1.1800. Sell the euro only if economic reports from the US come out better than the forecasts.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

Demand for the pound rose in the market yesterday, so as a result, the GBP / USD pair moved 40 pips upward. However, afterwards, short positions from 1.3214 dragged the quote down to 1.3169. It seems that the lack of economic data and unimproved outlook for the UK economy is a deterrent factor even for speculative players. The pound needs good news to maintain the upward trend.

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Trading recommendations for November 17

The position of the pound shall rely today on the statements from the Bank of England. If its governor, Andrew Bailey, leaves key rates unchanged, the British pound will continue to rise. But if he resorts to negative rates, the pound may come under pressure.

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  • Open a long position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3230 (green line on the chart) and then take profit around the level of 1.3281 (thicker green line on the chart). If the Bank of England leaves key rates unchanged, or if there's good news over Brexit, demand for the British pound may increase.
  • Open a short position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3208 (red line on the chart). A breakout of this range will bring pressure back to the pair, which will push the pound towards the level of 1.3169.
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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 17. COT reports. Bulls not ready to give up the market

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Like the bears yesterday, they did not try to pick up support at 1.3172. The pair kept returning to this level every time this range was tested, which ultimately led to producing a signal to buy the pound. I marked a long entry point on the 5-minute chart, afterwards the bears could no longer do anything. There is still a strong demand for the British pound today in the Asian session, which indicates a fairly large investor interest in this instrument.

But, before we analyze the technical picture of the pound and run to take long deals, let's see what happened in the futures market last week, which continues to signal the increase in sellers. Lack of clarity on the trade agreement, together with the lockdown of the British economy in November, clearly does not add optimism and confidence to the buyers of the pound. There is also the risk of imposing negative interest rates early next year, especially if the coronavirus situation continues to worsen. This is reflected in the sentiment of market participants. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 showed a reduction in long positions and a slight increase in short positions. Long non-commercial positions fell from 31,799 to 27,701. At the same time, short non-commercial positions slightly rose from 38,459 to 38,928. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was 11,227 against 6,660 a week earlier, which indicates that the sellers of the British pound retain control and also shows their minimal advantage in the current situation.

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Buyers of the British pound aim for a breakout and to get the pair to settle above the resistance of 1.3237 in the first half of the day, which was not done yesterday. Only this produces a new entry point into long positions in hopes for GBP/USD to continue rising and reach a high of 1.3310, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be resistance at 1.3378, but it will require good reasons for its update. One of them could come from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech today, who may allay fears related to the negative interest rate, which is planned to be introduced early next year. In case the pound falls in the first half of the day, protecting support at 1.3168 will be an equally important task for the bulls. They got it over with yesterday. Today, forming a false breakout in that area will stop the bears. This will provide buyers with confidence and bring GBP/USD back to the resistance area of 1.3237, which is currently being traded around. In case bulls are not active in the 1.3168 area, it is best not to rush and postpone long positions until the test of a new low at 1.3106, where you can buy the pound immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears have taken a wait-and-see attitude and the main focus is currently on protecting resistance at 1.3237. Sellers' behavior at this level will determine the pair's succeeding direction. If buyers are not active, forming a false breakout in the 1.3237 area will be the first signal to open short positions in the pound, counting on it to fall to support 1.3168, which is now the middle of the horizontal channel. We can say that the bears have taken control of the market only when they have settled below 1.3168, which will quickly pull down the pound to the lower border of this channel at 1.3106. Only its breakout will indicate the resumption of the bearish trend, which could pull down the pound to new lows of 1.3034 and 1.2976, where I recommend taking profits. In case bears are not active at 1.3237, it is best to postpone short positions until the test of the monthly high of 1.3310, or sell the pound immediately upon a rebound from resistance 1.3378, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out just above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a slight advantage for the buyers of the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.3235 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.3170.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 17. COT reports. Euro buyers actively push back, ready to break through

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The European currency was best sold at 1.1868 yesterday morning. The attempt to settle above 1.1868 failed and there was also a lack of buying activity, all this caused the EUR/USD pair to return to the area below this level and a good entry point for short positions to appear, which quickly pushed the pair into the area of the morning support at 1.1832. The bears tried to secure the area below 1.1832 closer to the US session, having tested it from the bottom up, which produced a fairly good entry point for short positions, but this did not lead to a serious sale and the bulls regained control over this level by the middle of the US session. Testing 1.1832 from top to bottom became a signal to buy the euro, which was realized today in the Asian session.

But, before talking about the prospects for the pair's movement, let's see what happened in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders positions changed. Last week kept the market in balance due to the news that the third trials of the coronavirus vaccine were successful, and the fundamental reports on the US economy were not very encouraging. The rise in coronavirus cases continues to put pressure on risky assets, as the data show. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 showed a reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. Despite this, buyers of risky assets still believe in the bull market, although they prefer to proceed with caution. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 217,443 to 208,237, while short non-commercial positions rose from 61,888 to 67,888. The total non-commercial net position fell from 155,555 to 140,349 a week earlier. It is worth noting that the delta has been declining for seven consecutive weeks, which confirms the euro buyers' lack of desire to enter the market in the current conditions. Growth will only begin after Joe Biden's victory as he intends to endow the American economy with the next largest monetary aid package worth more than $2 trillion.

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In regards to the pair's technical picture, it has not changed in any way compared to yesterday. The initial task of the bulls is to break and settle above the high of 1.1868, which produces a good entry point for continuing the upward correction and will open a direct road to the monthly high of 1.1915, where I recommend taking profits. Weak data on the US economy may strengthen the demand for the euro, especially in the field of retail sales, which will be released once the US session opens. The breakout of 1.1915 opens an opportunity to renew the highs of 1.1964 and 1.2008. In the event that EUR/USD falls today in the morning, an equally important task for the bulls will be to protect support at 1.1832. Forming a false breakout there, similar to yesterday, forms an entry point into long positions. In case bulls are not active in the 1.1832 area, it is better to postpone buy positions until the 1.1797 level has been updated. However, you can open long positions from it on the initial test, counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day. Larger support is seen in the 1.1749 area, where you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The initial task of the sellers is to protect resistance at 1.1868. Forming a false breakout there, similar to yesterday, will be another signal to open short positions in the euro, which will push the pair back to the support of 1.1832. Only a real breakout and being able to get the pair to settle below this range and testing it from the bottom up produces an additional entry point to short positions in hopes of bringing back the downward trend. In this case, the nearest target of the bears will be the low of 1.1797, which was not reached yesterday. However, even a test of this level will only be an indication that the pair is stuck in a horizontal channel. Going beyond and being able to settle below this range will lead EUR/USD to the area of the lower border of the horizontal channel at 1.1749, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls turn out to be stronger and continue to push the pair up against the background of the absence of important fundamental statistics in the first half of the day, then it is best not to rush to sell, but wait until the larger resistance at 1.1915 has been updated. You can sell from this level during the first test, counting on a correction of 15-20 points. However, for the market to reverse, a false breakout must be present. I recommend opening short positions in EUR/USD immediately on a rebound, but only from a new monthly high of 1.1964.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the continued bull market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.1868 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. Pressure on the euro will increase in case of a breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1820 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 17, 2020

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The failure to rally impulsive of the 137.52 low is of concern, but as long as the 137.52 low is able to protect the downside we will stay biased towards the bullish option for a new impulsive rally above minor resistance at 137.87 towards the former peak at 142.72 and much higher longer term.

A break below 137.52 will be of concern, but back-up support inform of the rising trend-line is seen near 136.25.

R3: 140.17

R2: 139.06

R1: 138.51

Pivot: 138.14

S1: 137.93

S2: 137.51

S3: 137.16

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBp from 135.45 with our stop placed at 137.45

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 17, 2020

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EUR/JPY is hardly moving at the moment. It tried to rally past minor resistance at 124.30, but failed, which keeps the corrective target at 123.58 to be hit before the next impulsive rally higher. Only a clear break above yesterdays peak at 124.44 will confirm the completion of the correction from 125.13 and the onset of a new impulsive rally towards the former peak at 127.02 and higher towards 129.36.

R3: 125.75

R2: 125.00

R1: 124.65

Pivot: 124.13

S1: 123.95

S2: 123.58

S3: 123.23

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 122.25 with our stop placed at 123.25

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for USDJPY for November 17, 2020

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Technical outlook:

USDJPY might be preparing to carve a higher low around 104.20/30 levels, before resuming its rally. The currency pair is seen to be trading at around 104.50 at this point in writing and is expected to push higher towards 106.00, 107.00 and beyond. Immediate support is fixed at 103.18, while resistance is seen at around 106.00 levels respectively. The recent rally which is being worked upon is between 103.18 and 105.65 levels respectively and intraday support could be seen around 104.20/30 levels, going forward. Also note that the fibonacci 0.618 support of recent upswing is seen towards 104.20 levels and hence probabilities remain high for a bullish bounce, if prices manage to reach there. The overall structure remains bullish as long as prices stay above 103.18 support.

Trading plan:

Remain long, stop @ 103.00, target is 107.00 and higher.

Good luck!

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Hot Forecast of EUR/JPY for November 17

The EURJPY pair has been making the up and down consolidation move for the past week.

The pair rallied on 9 November. A push higher was extended above 125.00 that is a key psychological barrier zone. But the price failed to close above it. The subsequent fall from resistance of 125.00 erased those gains (and a little more), completing the trading range today.

November 9th's impulsive bullish move with a spike high ended up in a corrective market phase since 10 November. The pair may have also been supported by a descending bearish channel which is coming into play from a technical viewpoint.

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Overall a formation of a bull flag pattern is seen. Explosive moves are often associated with the bull flag .A brief pause in the trend for the past 6 trading days is following a strong price move higher of 9th November. The bull flag pattern looks like a downward sloping channel/rectangle plotted by two parallel trendlines against the preceding trend.

During this period of consolidation, a trade volume is reducing through its formation. A push higher on the breakout above 124.20 may lead EUR/JPY to test the 125.00 critical barrier once again . If the price can stay below 123.30 support level, the sellers will have a shot at going for 123.30 which coincides with a 50% retracement .

Key things to look out for when trading the bull flag pattern are:

  1. Preceding uptrend (flag pole)
  2. Identify downward sloping consolidation (bull flag)
  3. If the retracement becomes deeper than 50%, it may not be a flag pattern. Ideally, the retracement ends at less than 38% of the original trend
  4. Enter at bottom of the flag or on the breakout above the high of the upper channel boundary
  5. Look for price to break higher with a length potentially equal to the size of the flag pole
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBPUSD for November 17, 2020

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Technical outlook:

GBPUSD had managed to reach close to 1.32402 highs yesterday, close to fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent drop between 1.3315 and 1.3106 respectively. The Cable is trading at around 1.3214 levels at this point in writing and is expected to turn lower from here soon. Immediate resistance is seen towards 1.3315 levels, followed by 1.3500; while interim support comes at 1.3106 levels respectively. A push below 1.3106 will accelerate lower towards 1.2850 at least and that a meaningful lower high has been carved around 1.3315 levels respectively. The structure continues to remain bearish until prices stay below 1.3500 highs and should complete below 1.2675 levels at least. Ideally, GBPUSD is expected to drop towards 1.2200 levels, which is also fibonacci 0.618 support of the entire rally between 1.1414 and 1.3488 levels respectively. Only a push beyond 1.3500 would terminate the recent bearish outlook.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop above 1.3500, target below 1.2675 and 1.2200.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD for November 17, 2020

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Technical outlook:

EURUSD has managed to retrace towards 1.1860 again and should carve a lower high soon. The single currency pair is seen to be trading at around 1.1860 levels at this point in writing and is expected to be back in control of bears. The currency pair is facing immediate resistance around 1.1920, followed by 1.2010; while interim support comes in at 1.1750 levels respectively. The overall structure continues to remain bearish until EURUSD stays below 1.2010 highs, which was a print on September 01, 2020. A push below 1.1750 from here will accelerate lower towards 1.1500 at least and also confirm that a meaningful lower high is in place around 1.1850/60 levels. Also note that trend line support and fibonacci 0.382 retracements are seen just below 1.1500 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 1.2010, target is @ 1.1500 at least.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD significant resistance zone

Today, the pair is testing the WCZ 1/2 1.1860-1.1850. Fixing above this zone will open the way for the pair to grow in the second half of the week. The target of the upward movement will be the weekly control zone of 1.1974-1.1954. The upward movement will be 114 points, which will allow you to get a favorable risk-to-profit ratio when buying EURUSD below the level of 1.1860.

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This model will continue the medium-term momentum started two weeks earlier. Please note that the growth of EUR/USD will affect the Dollar index, which may cause the growth of other majors.

If today's WCZ 1/2 test leads to a sharp increase in supply and the closing of trading occurs below the zone, then sales of the instrument will come to the fore. The downward model is still undeveloped so the target of the fall will be the weekly control zone of 1.1712-1.1692 which should also be rebuilt at a new margin of $2600 per contract.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 17, 2020

EUR/USD

Markets continue to actively play out the popular topic of coronavirus vaccines. Yesterday, American company Moderna announced successful tests of the second phase. The US stock index S&P 500 rose by 1.16%, the euro by 17 points. Obviously, until new investment topics are available, investors continue to be optimistic about the development of new vaccines and the vaccination process itself. But this topic will soon become boring, because yesterday's growth was not as pronounced as it was after the news from Pfizer.

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The daily chart shows that nothing is holding back the price from moving to the nearest targets of 1.1910 along the MACD line and 1.1940 along the line of the descending price channel. The Marlin oscillator is growing.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price settled above the balance indicator line, which strengthened the mood for buy positions on the euro, the Marlin oscillator also settled in the positive trend zone. Yesterday's trading volume exceeded Friday's. We are waiting for the EUR/USD to rise towards the designated targets.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 17, 2020

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the pound closed at the level where it closed last Friday, and today it opened above the daily MACD line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves horizontally. These are signs of further growth. The target remains the same - the 1.3350/80 range.

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The price overcomes the resistance of the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart. Settling beyond this area can accelerate growth. Marlin attacks the border of the growth territory. There are no signs of a reversal, we are waiting for succeeding growth.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 17, 2020

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar rose by 52 points yesterday. Technically, the growth of the market was due to a rebound from the support of the MACD indicator line from the trading's opening. As the Marlin Oscillator continues to grow, the price at the first target level of 0.7380 is anticipated. If the price overcomes it, then we anticipate the price at the second target level of 0.7440 (the minimum of September 2016 and the maximum of August 2015).

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Based on the four-hour chart, the price consolidated above the balance indicator line with the growing Marlin oscillator. This is a sign that the current movement remains on the horizon for several days. The Australian dollar at the specified target levels is to look forward to.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 17, 2020

USD/JPY

Yesterday, the Japanese currency quickly worked out our scenario and tested the MACD line (105.14) and returned to the area under the trend line of the price channel (104.75) on the daily chart. The price has settled under the trend line, now we are waiting for it to move to the nearest target of 104.05. Overcoming it opens the second target at 103.18 - the November 6 low. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone - in the trend of a prospective (the indicator is leading) decline.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price has settled below the MACD indicator line, the Marlin oscillator is in a downward trend on the 13th. We are waiting for the price at the first target at 104.05, then at the second target at 103.18.

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The vaccine is killing the dollar

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The dollar exchange rate against the basket of competitors was kept in the red zone on Monday. Investors started the new week with relative optimism after the economic data from Asia and hopes for a successful COVID-19 vaccine. Thus, they bet on the positive in the somewhat distant future, but refuse to notice what is happening now.

In the US session, the dollar's decline increased. The latest news about the vaccine contributed to this dynamic. Another company announced the creation of a medicine for coronavirus and informed them about the successful tests reported by Pfizer and BioNTech.

The biotech company Moderna said that at the end of the third phase of testing, the drug showed an effectiveness of 94.5%. Markets are pinning high hopes on a vaccine that should save the global economy and are abandoning the dollar in favor of riskier currencies.

As for the optimism around the economic recovery, investors are playing down Japan's third-quarter GDP data. According to the first estimate, the growth was 5%. In annual terms, the economy expanded by 21.4%. The indicator increased for the first time in four quarters. It seems that the Japanese economy is more successful in dealing with the consequences of the pandemic than the US, which increases the attractiveness of investing in the yen. In addition to the fundamental weakness of the dollar, strong support for the Japanese currency on Monday was provided by published macroeconomic data. The USD/JPY pair declined during the trading session, continuing to develop the corrective momentum of the previous week.

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Pressure on the dollar increased, in particular, due to the fact that in the United States for the first time 150 thousand new cases of coronavirus infection were detected. The number reached new records in more than a dozen States. Weak statistics also contributed to the decline. The preliminary consumer sentiment index in November was 77.0 compared to October's 81.8. Markets expected the indicator to be 81.5.

Market players are becoming more confident in their expectations regarding the latest monetary stimulus measures for the US economy. A decision can be made as soon as possible.

The US dollar now is not just weakening but is at the very beginning of the decline path, credit Agricole notes. After Joe Biden officially takes office as President of the United States, his first priority will be to fight the pandemic. The very fact of Donald Trump's departure will be a positive factor for world trade and the further recovery of the global economy.

This will make the dollar the main loser of the currency market. The major exporters - Europe and China - should benefit the most from the yuan and Euro and the repatriation of foreign exchange earnings will increase demand for their currencies.

The Euro is undervalued against the US currency according to Bank strategists. They are also optimistic about the pound. As for the Swiss franc, its fall is due to the General withdrawal of investors from protective assets after the US presidential election and good news about vaccines.

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Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair is surrounded by short-term uncertainty. The Euro went up to 1.1855. A new test and a confident consolidation above the 1.19 mark on the dollar's weakness could be the start of a big rally. The nearest target is 1.20. In General, there is a potential for strengthening to 1.23. In the event of a new trend reversal that confirms the weakness of the euro bucks, the 1.16 mark will return to the spotlight.

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EURUSD-Great America is like a circus

How long will the election of the President of the United States last? Even the Americans themselves cannot answer the question. It seems that though the elections have passed, it seems that they are still going on. Someone is already appointing new Ministers while someone is still hoping for victory.

We are talking about two main characters, Trump and Biden, who decided to make the 2020 election memorable for a long time.

Everything would be fine but the coronavirus pandemic is raging in the world and its trend is growing. Experimental vaccines for the virus have been developed. The economy is going through the worst of times. Investors are scared.

Put yourself in the shoes of strategic investors. They see the media shouting victory for Biden, who without official results calls for a transfer of cases and appoints new ministers. At the same time, the incumbent President is firing off sparks and tweets, calling for a recount and accusing Biden of rigging the election.

"He won because the election was rigged. There were no observers to monitor the voting and counting of votes. The vote is being conducted by a private company of the radical left, Dominion, with a bad reputation and mindless equipment that could not even pass certification in Texas, Fake & Silent Media, & More!" Trump said in a tweet @realDonaldTrump

Joe Biden's staff responded to such harsh accusations of fraud, saying that Trump's outburst only confirms Biden's victory in the election.

"I see this as another confirmation of the reality that Joe Biden won the election," said Ron Kline, a Biden staff member

In turn, Trump tweeted that "I won the election!", while Twitter put a note under his post that the information contradicts official sources about the election results.

Now you have no questions about why investors are outraged.

In terms of technical analysis, you can see that the variable pivot point is 1.1745 coordinates. Relative to it there was a reverse price movement in the area of 1.1860. So the recovery relative to the decline in the period of November 9-11 has an impressive scale but here the main role is played by speculation, which will continue to manifest itself in the market until the circus with the elections ends.

Thus, though there is a technical and fundamental justification for the decline, the market may behave differently, depending on the incoming information.

As for the market dynamics for November 13, this is an anomaly. Daily activity was only 38 points, which is 52.5% below the average level. Practice shows that a sharp decline in volatility leads to the accumulation of trading forces and this leads to an acceleration in the market. The last time such a large-scale decline in activity was observed on the day before the election, November 2, after which there was an acceleration. Whether there will be a repeat of the scenario, with a high probability but perhaps on a smaller scale.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see that the price fluctuation over the past month has had high dynamics but the medium-term remains on the market.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have statistics for Europe and the United States. Speculators will continue to track the information flow on burning topics: Trump & Biden, COVID, Brexit.

Analyzing the current trading chart, you can see that the variable resistance was at 1.1870, relative to which the upward cycle from the support level of 1.1745 slowed down and as a result, there was a pullback to the mirror coordinate of 1.1810.

As long as the quote is above the 1.1810 coordinate, the risk of a subsequent upward movement towards the local maximum of November 9 - 1.1920 remains.

The picture may change if the price is fixed below 1.1810 in the four-hour period, which may lead to the resumption of the downward tact of the beginning of the past week.

An additional risk for traders is the ambiguous information noise about the verbal showdown between Trump and Biden, which puts pressure on investors and provokes speculators to chaotic jumps depending on the incoming information.

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Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes, it is clear that the indicators of technical instruments signal a purchase, where the minute and hour intervals are focused on the fact that the price is fixed higher than 1.1810 but the daily ones work on the inertia of the beginning of the month.

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The volatility for the week / Measurement of volatility: Month, Quarter, and Year

The measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation calculated for the Month, Quarter, and Year

(November 16 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The dynamics of the current time is only 54 points, which is 32% below the average level, but can still change due to the high coefficient of speculative operations.

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Key level

Resistance zones: 1,1910; 1,2000***; 1,2100*; 1,2450**; 1,2550; 1,2825.

Support areas: 1,1810*; 1,1700; 1,1612*;1,1500; 1,1350; 1,1250*;1,1180**; 1,1080; 1,1000***.

*Periodic level

**Range level

***Psychological level

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Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 17. COT report. Analysis and recommendations

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair tried to resume the upward movement yesterday and even crossed the critical Kijun-sen line, but could not do so and thus, a new round of the downward correction began very quickly. At the same time, the pound/dollar pair remains above the upward trend line, that is, the upward trend continues. Thus, formally, buyers stay in the game and still have good chances of moving up, at least to the area of the previous local high - the 1.3298 level . At the same time, we have repeatedly said that we are leaning towards the option of starting a new long downward trend. This requires at least breaking the trend line. After that, the initiative in the market will be intercepted by the bears, and you can expect the pound to fall by at least a few hundred points. The fundamental background still signals a very high probability of a fall in the British currency. COT reports are now quite uninformative, but they do not deny this possibility.

GBP/USD 15M

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The higher linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, however, the lower channel turned sideways. Traders were unable to continue the upward movement on Monday, and are increasingly inclined to start forming a new downward trend. The trend line on the hourly chart is now very important for determining the succeeding trend.

COT report

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The GBP/USD pair increased by 250 points in the last reporting week (November 3-9). It is not surprising that the pound strengthened, since the US presidential election was held during this period, and the dollar was declining against its main competitors. However, the pound began to grow after this period. In general, the pound has been growing recently. But the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports does not really provide any useful information. Non-commercial traders closed 3,300 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 1,100 Sell-contracts (shorts). Therefore, they became more bearish, and the net position decreased by 4,400, which is not so small for the pound. Recall that the "non-commercial" group opened a total number of 87,000 contracts. Thus, 4,400 is 5%. As for the general trend among professional traders, the indicators in the chart clearly show that there is no trend at this time. The green line (net position of non-commercial traders) on the first indicator constantly changes its direction. The second indicator also shows the absence of a trend, as professional traders increase the net position, then reduce it. Thus, no long-term conclusions or forecasts can still be made based on the COT report. We recommend paying more attention to technique and foundation.

The fundamental background for the British pound did not change on Monday. Also, as in the case of the euro/dollar pair, there were literally a few and were not really important messages from the UK and America, nothing significant that could cause a market reaction. Not a single important macroeconomic report. Thus, the pound sterling continues to balance on the edge of the abyss. Buyers' hopes remain solely with the prosperous conclusion of negotiations on a trade deal between London and Brussels. If there is no deal (and this may become known as early as this week), then the pound may collapse. We have long come to the conclusion that the pound is overbought. And since there is still no positive news from Great Britain, the pound, in principle, has no reason to continue (!!!) growth.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to deliver a speech on Tuesday. However, as with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Bailey's recent speeches were too uninformative and uninteresting. Therefore, Bailey may not mention anything important today. However, traders have long been waiting for the UK central bank to resort to negative rates. And it seems that even the BoE representatives do not deny that sooner or later they will have to resort to this instrument of monetary policy. Thus, any information about the timing of the introduction of negative rates can affect the mood of traders. And the pound. Negatively.

We have two trading ideas for November 17:

1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair have a hard time keeping the initiative in their hands. Thus, we recommend buying the pair while aiming for resistance levels 1.3298 and 1.3409, if the bulls manage to keep the pair above the trend line and overcome the critical Kijun-sen line (1.3208). Take Profit in this case will be from 60 to 170 points.

2) Sellers could not pull down the pair below the trend line. If the price settles below the trend line, the trend will change to a downward one and you can sell the pound/dollar pair while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.3081) and the support area of 1.3004-1.3024. Take Profit in this case can range from 60 to 100 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 17. COT report. Analysis and recommendations

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair moved up on the hourly timeframe on Monday, November 16, but a new round of the downward movement began in the afternoon. The nature of the current movement is still extremely suitable for a flat, which stays in the long term. Recall that the pair's quotes have been trading between the levels of 1.1700 and 1.1900 for three months now. Thus, 80% of trades are within the specified range. Naturally, trends are not always formed within this range. It would be too ideal for quotes to reach one of the channel's boundaries, rebound off it and start moving towards the opposite boundary. Therefore, in reality, the lateral movement stays, but it is less of a good view. The Kijun-sen line went down yesterday, so the price remained above it, despite the downward correction. Therefore, rebounding from this line may help traders with long deals while they aim for the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912. For something more, buyers need to go beyond the specified area, but even then, the breakout can be false.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe. Therefore, not breaking the Kijun-sen line still allows traders to form an upward trend in the short term. The upward movement to the 1.1886-1.1912 area can only continue if the Kijun-sen line is not overcome.

COT report

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The EUR/USD pair increased by 170 points in the last reporting week (November 3-9). The US presidential elections provoked a rather strong drop in the US currency, however, it lasted no more than a few days. Nevertheless, the euro rose in price, and market participants can expect that professional traders are leaning towards being bullish. However, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that the mood of large traders has become more bearish. The net position of the "non-commercial" group of traders decreased again, this time by 17,000 contracts, which is quite a lot. Recall that non-commercial traders have been reducing their net position for several consecutive weeks, which is eloquently signaled by the lower indicator in the chart. A decrease in the net position, in fact, means that Buy-contracts (longs) are closed and Sell-contracts (shorts) are opened. The first professional traders closed 9,200 during the reporting week, and the second - opened 7,800. However, despite the fact that the net position of non-commercial traders has been falling since the beginning of September, the downward trend has still not started for the EUR/USD pair. The green and red lines on the first indicator continue to move towards each other, which means that the trend has already begun long ago. However, there is actually no downward movement in the long term. Therefore, based on the latest COT report, we can say the following: our forecasts remain the same, since the report data allows only such conclusions to be drawn. We still believe that the upward trend has ended at around 1.2000.

No important macroeconomic reports for the European Union and the United States on Monday. There were only a few messages that, purely theoretically, could have an impact on the pair's movement. We have Donald Trump's new insinuations, information about possible new sanctions by Washington against Beijing as a "slamming door", and the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who did not say anything important nor anything related to monetary policy or the economy. Recently, Lagarde has paid increased attention to the pandemic, the vaccine against the coronavirus, as well as the digital euro, which may be launched within a few years. However, all this information was interesting only in general.

Lagarde is set to deliver another speech on Tuesday, November 17. And, most likely, the head of the ECB will also avoid discussing the economy and monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US will release its retail sales report for the month of October. According to forecasts, it might increase 0.5% m/m, which is very small compared to September's results, which grew 1.9% m/m. However, in the current environment, this report is unlikely to cause a strong market reaction. In general, we do not yet see what fundamental news can bring the pair out of the $1.17-1.19 channel.

We have two trading ideas for November 17:

1) Buyers kept the pair above the Senkou Span B line (1.1807), as well as above the new upward trend line. Therefore, you are advised to trade upward while aiming for the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912 and the resistance level of 1.2007. Take Profit in this case will be about 50 to 150 points.

2) At first, the bears failed to overcome the Senkou Span B line (1.1760), and then the trend line. Thus, in order to be able to resume trading downward while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.1760) and the support area of 1.1692-1.1699, the price should settle below the trend line and break the Kijun-sen line (1.1807). Take Profit in this case can range from 30 to 80 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Britain is buying a vaccine and preparing for a deal. How will the pound react?

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On Monday, the British pound fell slightly, despite risk appetite being boosted by strong Chinese economic data and news of progress on the COVID-19 vaccine. In general, a positive attitude to risky assets should play in favor of the sterling, unless the political crisis worsens with the country's exit from the EU.

As one of Boris Johnson's most influential aides quit, Brexit problems mount. Dominic Cummings, who drew up the plan for negotiations with the EU, announced his departure at the end of last week. The negotiations are not yet complete, and it is not clear where Boris Johnson might end up. The British Prime Minister is under pressure from influential members of the Conservative Party. They want to force him to change his position in the negotiation process and take control of the situation with the pandemic.

The transition period for leaving the EU, meanwhile, ends on December 31, and one of the European senior officials made it clear on Monday that it is too late to conclude a trade deal with Britain. There may be problems if the situation doesn't get off the ground in the next week or 10 days. Johnson replied that his country would thrive with or without a deal—another verbal salvo from both sides. Meanwhile, investors continue to believe that a deal will be reached.

According to currency strategists, "It seems that the market is preparing for a deal at some stage." In addition, they admit that the departure of Dominic Cummings may play a positive role here: Britain will be more willing to compromise. Perhaps the parties are preparing to conclude a deal this week.

After Moderna reported positive coronavirus vaccine trial results, the UK began negotiations with the company regarding access to the drug.

Moderna is now expanding its European supply chain. This means that the drug will be available to the British in the early spring of 2021. The government gives preference to deals with the developers of vaccines that are not only advanced, but also would have guaranteed early shipment to the UK. This was announced by a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

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The dollar index remains in a bearish trend, short positions will still be relevant. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the US currency index will fall by 4% next year. Faith in vaccines holds out hope for a faster recovery in the American economy. On Monday, Moderna declared 94% effectiveness of its experimental coronavirus vaccine. This result far exceeded expectations and was even better than Pfizer's.

The US Treasury Department is currently holding a $ 61 billion bond offering. Purchases of securities by the Federal Reserve amount to $ 6 billion. There are much more purchases from the Ministry of Finance, which may cause short-term demand for the US currency. Furthermore, the operations of the financial Department and the Fed will increase the amount of dollars in the system, which will put pressure on the greenback. On Monday, the EUR/USD pair is undergoing a slight correction, after which the upward trend will resume.

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Societe Generale analysts are bullish on the euro. In their opinion, the growth will be facilitated by the continued reduction of spreads between the yields of the main and peripheral Euroblock government securities. Thus, the November high of EUR/USD at 1.1920 will be the last obstacle to the long-awaited breakout of the 1.20 level.

In the fourth quarter, lockdowns will undoubtedly slow down economic activity in the region. However, the most important thing now is confidence in the prospects for the next year. A potential vaccine against coronavirus needs to support the economic recovery.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 17. Boris Johnson is back in self-isolation. The results of the talks between London

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -12.0718

The British pound sterling paired with the US dollar continues quite contradictory movements. The pair's quotes are currently located above the moving average line, which seems to maintain an upward trend. However, just on Friday, the price was already falling below the moving average, but could not continue to move down. Now it may be the opposite, the pair may start a new round of downward movement despite fixing above the moving average. If you look at the movement of the pound/dollar pair in the last few months, you can see that the price very often overcomes the moving average, however, it does not lead to a change in the trend to the opposite. And we have already talked about the fundamental background a million times and nothing has changed for the British pound in recent days. The future of the British economy is so hazy that even all American problems look trivial against this background. Therefore, we continue to expect the British pound to fall despite the epidemiological problems in the United States, as well as all the political confusion that has persisted there in recent months.

Meanwhile, negotiations on a trade agreement between the European Union and the UK, which will take effect (in theory) after the end of the "transition period", that is, on January 1, 2021, are continuing. The next round of talks began on Sunday in Brussels, as stated by the chief negotiator from the British side, David Frost. Frost also said that since October 22, the parties have been negotiating every day, and during this time there have been some positive developments. David Frost expressed hope that the parties will eventually come to an agreement but also warned that negotiations may fail. According to Frost, there is a common draft agreement between London and Brussels, however, there are still serious differences on several important issues. Meanwhile, "Boris Johnson's deadline" was this Sunday. Recall that on October 15, Boris Johnson graciously allowed the negotiating groups to extend the terms of discussion of the deal for 1 month. Naturally, the parties did not have time until November 15, since it was clear from the very beginning of the negotiations that such deals are not concluded in a few months. However, the point is not even in "Johnson's deadlines". The bottom line is that the end of the "transition period", which the same British Prime Minister refused to extend, is inexorably approaching. Given that it will take more time for both Parliaments to ratify and accept the deal, the negotiations need to be completed in the next few days to make it to December 31. However, several British media call the date of November 19, when everything can end. On this day, the parties will either announce an agreement or another failure. The EU summit is scheduled for this day and it is at this summit that the final decision should be made. If a deal cannot be agreed before then, then from January 1, Britain and the EU will trade with each other according to WTO rules. Of course, no one forbids them to resume negotiations in the new year. But in any case, this means that for a while the Alliance and the Kingdom will trade with each other on not the most favorable terms.

As we can see, there is still no positive news from the UK. The problems remain the same and only their solution can lead to some weakening of the negative situation for the pound. What is interesting is that with such a failed fundamental background, the pound continues to show growth. Thus, it seems that the current exchange rate of the pair already includes a deal with the European Union. If so, then if an agreement is announced, there may not be any special reaction from traders. And if there is no announcement, the pound may rush down with renewed vigor. However, Brexit is not alone. The Foggy Albion is full of other problems. For example, epidemiological. We said that the situation with the "coronavirus" is very difficult in the United States, however, the situation in the UK is no better. The country remains in first place among the EU countries in the number of deaths from the "Chinese virus", as well as the third in the number of cases since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of daily recorded cases of COVID-2019 is growing day by day, as in the States. And the UK government does not want to introduce quarantine ("lockdown"), putting the priority of the economy over health care. In principle, the situation now looks like this: the British are allowed to go to work and school, as well as to places of basic necessity and to walk in the fresh air, but all other activities are prohibited. Boris Johnson himself went into self-isolation, as he came into contact with an infected "coronavirus". The Prime Minister said that he has no signs of illness, but, according to quarantine rules, he is forced to stay out of contact with anyone for some time. Johnson is going to work remotely.

Based on all the above, we expect a resumption of the downward movement in the near future. In America, the situation is difficult, but in the UK it is even more difficult. In America, the power will change in 10 weeks, in the UK - in a few years. The United States can expect an improvement in the economic, epidemiological, geopolitical, and political picture, while the British can only expect things to get even worse. Thus, we are waiting for a new price consolidation below the moving average line. It should also be noted that there are almost no "ordinary" statistics and "ordinary" reports now. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has been making a lot of speeches lately, but he doesn't tell the markets anything extravagant. His speeches are more focused on the topic of the pandemic and the vaccine.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 110 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Tuesday, November 17, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3081 and 1.3295. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top signals a possible resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3184

S2 – 1.3123

S3 – 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3245

R2 – 1.3306

R3 – 1.3367

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is trying to continue moving up on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to open new longs with targets of 1.3245 and 1.3295 if the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to trade the pair down with the targets of 1.3123 and 1.3081 if the price is again fixed below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 17. "Coronavirus problems" in the United States. Donald Trump is going to finally

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 105.2632

The first trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair was very quiet. Volatility during the day did not exceed 50-60 points, which is the average value for this pair. This is exactly what we said in previous reviews: on Monday, trading is unlikely to be overly active. Especially if you take into account the lack of macroeconomic publications and important news. And there was no news that day. No, of course, certain messages were received during the day, however, there was nothing that could stir up the markets. Thus, neither the fundamental background nor the technical picture changed at all during Monday, November 16. The pair is still trading inside the side channel of 1.1700-1.1900, so there is no long-term trend. Short-term trends appear from time to time, however, they are not always there. Therefore, market participants should still take into account the fact that a strong movement in one direction should not be expected now.

Naturally, the main newsmaker in America remains the current President, Donald Trump. He continues to load Twitter daily with angry posts about election fraud, as well as threats of legal proceedings against anyone who violated the fair election procedure. However, now it seems that no one is listening to Trump anymore. That is, he is still the President of the United States, but everyone already treats him as the loser of the election. Consequently, the President is already called Joe Biden. However, we remind traders that Trump will remain President for another 10 weeks, until January 20, 2021. And there are no restrictions on its powers. That is, formally, it can tighten sanctions against China tomorrow or start a new trade war with any country or make some other "strong" decision. Yesterday, such news was made available to market participants. It became known that Trump is going to tighten sanctions measures against China. For what? According to some American publications, to "leave a memory" and make the task of reconciliation between China and the United States as difficult as possible, which Joe Biden may pursue. It is also reported that the White House is going to impose many sanctions against Chinese officials, as well as limit and complicate the process of trade between the two countries as much as possible. American media also report that Trump also pursues the goal of maintaining the country's chosen course of development for as long as possible. And in this course, there is a clear hostility against China. Maybe Trump intended to run for President in 4 years? This will not even be surprising. Age, as this election has shown, is not a hindrance at all. Joe Biden is 78 years old. In four years, he will be 82 and Trump will be 78. Thus, the current President has a chance of winning the elections in 2024. Especially if everything he's said in recent months about Joe Biden and his intentions as President turns out to be true. Let's imagine a hypothetical situation that in four years Biden's results will be unsatisfactory, and the situation in America will worsen. Then it turns out that Trump was right and this judgment alone may be enough for Americans to vote for him in 2024. In general, President Trump may still be in power for a long time and will wait for a new chance to climb to the very top of politics in the United States.

Meanwhile, the situation in the US may start to heat up again. And this warming up is unlikely to bring anything positive to the US currency. In recent weeks, we have actively written about the fact that the US dollar may start to rise in price after the election, as the tension should subside from the markets, and uncertainty should be leveled. However, as the first two weeks after the election showed, nothing much has changed in the mood of traders. They still keep the pair inside the channel of $1.17-$1.19 and can't get the price out of it. Thus, there were no special reasons for buying the European currency, however, the US dollar does not give any reasons for buying it. It turns out that the struggle between the two currencies will again slide into the area of "which country is more negative". In the European Union, the main problem now is the "coronavirus", its second wave. However, many countries have introduced repeated "lockdowns", so the situation should stabilize in the near future. In the States, there is no "lockdown", and the number of cases is growing day by day. Last time (a few weeks ago), we reported about 50-60 thousand cases daily. Then there were elections, and the topic of "coronavirus" faded into the background. And now every day in the United States, 150-200 thousand cases of the disease are recorded. Even in a developed country like the United States, the medical system can collapse at these rates. However, Trump does not say anything about this. And in general, for a very long time in his speeches, he spoke about the pandemic. Last time, at one of his campaign rallies, he said that American doctors are very smart and get fabulous profits from the "coronavirus". The fact that American doctors themselves are sick and dying from COVID-2019, Trump chose to remain silent. In general, the US dollar may again come under serious market pressure in the current conditions due to the extremely complex epidemiological situation in the US. And the economy of this country may begin to slow down or shrink again because of this. Thus, the euro may start to grow again against the US currency without correcting after the growth of 1300 points. Well, all possible actions of Donald Trump as President in the next 10 weeks may lead to an even greater fall in the dollar, since Trump has not yet announced anything worthwhile for his final period in power.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair continues to remain above the moving average, so the upward trend continues. Therefore, a rebound from the moving average may trigger a new round of upward movement to the Murray level "3/8"-1.1902, which is also the upper line of the side channel.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of November 17 is 62 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1779 and 1.1903. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top may signal a new round of upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1780

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1658

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1902

R3 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a new round of correction but remains above the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to open new long positions with a target of 1.1902, when the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up or the price rebounds from the moving average. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average with the first targets of 1.1780 and 1.1719.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com