Control zones for NZDUSD on 04/10/20

Today, the pair is testing the next target of the WCZ 1/2 0.6087-0.6080. The reaction to this zone will determine plans for the future. The appearance of an offer and a decrease in the exchange rate will allow you to get favorable prices for buying the instrument. The defining support will be the WCZ 1/2 0.6018-0.6011. The current bullish trend phase will continue as long as the pair is trading above this level.

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The next growth target, if it is consolidated above the WCZ 1/2, will be the weekly CZ 0.6170-0.6155. Working in the upward direction has a potential of 80 points, which makes purchases profitable.

To form an alternative model, it will be necessary to absorb yesterday's growth and close today's trading below the level of 0.6011. This will open the way for a reversal downward model to form. The probability of implementing this model is less than 30%, which makes it auxiliary, and sales from current levels are unprofitable.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for GBPUSD on 04/10/20

Work towards strengthening the exchange rate is the main one, so any decrease in the pair should be perceived as a corrective one. It is important to understand that such a strong structure will continue with a 75% probability. The nearest support where you can consider buying is the WCZ 1/4 1.2375-1.2365. The growth target was the weekly CZ 1.2640-1.2597, after the downward model was canceled.

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Today is a holiday in all countries, so the models will be implemented next week. We should expect an increase in volatility on Monday.

An alternative model will develop if today's trading closes below the WCZ 1/4. This will allow you to get more favorable prices for buying the instrument in the near future. It is important to understand that any downward movement will be corrective, and the probability of updating the monthly peak is higher than 75%. This makes buying the most profitable option.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for GBP/USD pair on April 10, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market from the level of 1.2460 (yesterday's closing of candlestick) will try to break up the upper fractal of 1.2484 (blue dashed line) and, if successful, it will continue to move up, with the target of 1.2518 - a pullback level of 61.8% (red dashed line). If this level is broken upward, the upward trend will continue with the target of 1.2779 - a pullback level of 76.4% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will try to continue its upward movement with the target of 1.2518 - a pullback level of 61.8% (red dashed line).

An unlikely scenario: working down from the level of 1.2484 (blue dashed line), with the target of 1.2238 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

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First day of oil consensus

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Russia and Saudi Arabia came to a common consensus to reduce oil production on Thursday, April 9. All OPEC countries will reduce production by 10 million in May and June.

Saudi Arabia and Russia will reduce to 8.5 million All OPEC countries agree to cut supplies by 23%.

Gradually, due to quarantine withdrawal, production will decrease from 10 to 8 million bpd from July, and then to 6 million bpd from 2021.

"Both Saudi Arabia and Russia will still have to reduce, and these cuts will also allow them to win political points," said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspect Ltd.

According to delegates, in addition to the planned reduction of 10 million barrels, OPEC expects the G20 countries to cut 5 million per day.

The Kremlin insists that America must do more than just allow market forces to reduce its own record production. US President Donald Trump said that the reduction in his country will happen "automatically", as low prices put the shale zone in a difficult situation.

"The US has already reduced because we automatically cut with falling oil demand," said James Lucier, managing Director of research firm Capital Alpha Partners LLC. "We are not a state corporation or government oil producers. The reduction of production automatically occurs with falling demand and excess of supply in the U.S.," he said.

Trump pressed Russia and Saudi Arabia to trim production, but did not agree to a reduction in his country together with other producing countries. Instead of agreeing amicably, he and his representatives said that the free, and absolutely free, market automatically restricts production in the country, and the government did not even lift a finger.

US Energy Secretary Dan Bruillett in support of Trump emphasized that the incredible drop in oil prices has already led to a complete halt in production and drilling rigs, the dismissal of personnel, etc. And the Department of Energy showed figures to prove its innocence.

So, the first day of the meeting has passed, the results are clear, all in anticipation of the second day.

Large manufacturers are trying to come to an agreement, as energy consumption has plummeted and prices have fallen. Demand for oil in India fell by as much as 70%, and some US refineries faced closures.

In this situation, over the past three decades, demand has fallen to its lowest level. Manufacturers are simply obliged to agree.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 10/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the 38% Fibonacci retracement at the level of 1.0913 but failed to rally higher after a Pin Bar candlestick pattern has been made at the top of the move. However, no new local low was made and bulls have managed to push the price higher after a bounce from the level of 1.0830. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is about to hit 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.0958 and the strong and positive momentum helps the bulls to push the rate towards this level. Please notice, there is another Fibonacci retracement left to test: 61% located at the level of 1.1002.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1359

WR2 - 1.1244

WR1 - 1.0981

Weekly Pivot - 1.0872

WS1 - 1.0612

WS2 - 1.0487

WS3 - 1.0228

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 10/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been continuing the local up trend and currently is hovering around the recent swing high at the level of 1.2474 as the bulls await the trigger to break through. The momentum is still strong and positive which increases the odds for an upside breakout, but the market conditions are now becoming overbought. If bulls want to continue the up trend they need a dynamic breakout higher towards the next target located at the level of 1.2580 otherwise the bears will push the price down again.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2628

WR2 - 1.2555

WR1 - 1.2356

Weekly Pivot - 1.2275

WS1 - 1.2111

WS2 - 1.2024

WS3 - 1.1831

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for EUR/USD pair on April 10, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market from the level of 1.0931 (yesterday's closing of the daily candlestick) can continue to move up with the target of 1.0958 - a pullback level of 50.0% (red dashed line). If this level is broken up, the upward trend will continue with the target of 1.1003 - a pullback level of 61.8% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will try to continue to move up with the target of 1.1003 - a pullback level of 61.8% (red dashed line).

An unlikely scenario: working down from a pullback level of 50.0% - 1.0958 (red dashed line), with a target of 1.0893 - a pullback level of 50.0% (blue dashed line).

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 10/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

US public debt has reached a record level of $ 24 trillion, which gives us an average of almost $ 73,000 for every US citizen. This is a big surprise after the Federal Reserve began an unprecedented printing of $ 6 trillion. This was the Feds response to the financial consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, which also predicts a 13% increase in US unemployment.

The deteriorating financial situation in the US did not affect Bitcoin. Not only that, he survived without any government support, and at present BTC / USD trade has increased by 2.1% compared to the beginning of this year.

Meanwhile, economic commentator Peter Schiff noticed that US President Donald Trump is indebted to the country at a dangerous pace. "If he is re-elected, he will do more debt in 8 years than Bush and Obama in 16. Instead of draining the swamp, he drains the nation," he wrote on Twitter.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has broken down from the possible Pennant formation and moved lower towards the nearest technical support located at the level of $6,908. Any violation of this level will likely lead to sell-off acceleration towards the level of $6,795 as the momentum is clearly diminishing. It is worth to notice, that Bitcoin has broken out from the ascending channel as well, which increases the odds of another wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,726

WR2 - $7,938

WR1 - $7,363

Weekly Pivot - $6,545

WS1 - $5,997

WS2 - $5,159

WS3 - $4,567

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 10/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Due to dishonest hacker activities, Bisq users lost a total of $ 250,000. The reason for this was the "critical vulnerability", but no specific information was provided. Already on Tuesday, the stock exchange blocked the possibility of trading.

The hacker was able to exploit the vulnerability in the Bisq trading protocol by attacking individual transactions to steal capital. We know about 3 BTC and 4000 XMR stolen from 7 different victims. This is the situation we have known so far.

As it turned out later, the exact value of the stolen cryptocurrencies was 22,000 BTC and 230,000 XMR, which gives a total of $ 250,000.

In most cases of market hacking, an attacker can be kicked out of the trading platform. However, it looks different in Bisq, as one of the developers cooperating with DEX informed. He said that although the bug was fixed on Wednesday to noon, nothing could stop the hacker, whose identity we will not know.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD bulls has failed to move above the level of $175.00 and the price is falling towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $156.24 - $153.46. This is the key short-term technical support and if violated then the losses might accelerate towards the level of $142.77. Please notice the decreasing momentum on ETH/USD on H4 time frame chart during the last move up was the first clue showing weakness of bulls.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $180.45

WR2 - $163.97

WR1 - $154.32

Weekly Pivot - $137.76

WS1 - $127.39

WS2 - $112.43

WS3 - $101.19

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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EUR/USD. A few spoons of tar in a barrel of honey

Many of the world's trading platforms are closed today – the Catholic world is celebrating Good Friday. On the eve of a long weekend due to the Easter holidays, traders are cautious and do not risk opening large positions. Although the fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair contributes to increased volatility, given recent events. First, members of the Eurogroup were still able to agree on a package of financial assistance to the EU countries, and secondly, OPEC+ countries signed an agreement to reduce oil production (the demarche of Mexico may disrupt the deal, but negotiations with Mexico city are still ongoing). We should also not forget about the actions of the Federal Reserve, which launched a new credit program. On the one hand, there are all prerequisites for further growth of EUR/USD at the moment, but on the other hand, some fairly significant nuances do not allow the pair's bulls to show character.

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But let's start with the latest decisions of the Eurogroup. At the end of the second round of negotiations, EU finance ministers still agreed on a package of stimulus measures for 540 billion euros. First, officials approved the provision of credit support for 240 billion euros. This money will be allocated to countries affected by the crisis from the European Stability Mechanism, but with one condition – the funds received must be spent on health care. The credit line will be open until the end of the crisis. Secondly, the Eurogroup members were able to agree on a temporary program to combat unemployment and crisis situations. It includes the allocation of about 100 billion euros, which will be used to provide loans to countries on preferential terms. These loans are also targeted in nature – the money should be used to provide financial assistance to those who have been left out of work during the epidemic.

Small and medium-sized businesses were also not left without credit support – 200 billion euros were allocated for this purpose. In addition, members of the Eurogroup announced their intention to create a special fund for the recovery of the eurozone economy in the post-crisis period. As the head of the Eurogroup Mario Centeno noted, after the EU countries begin to "very carefully remove restrictions", they will need assistance, and this will be provided by the above-mentioned special fund.

It is worth noting that traders of the EUR/USD pair reacted rather coolly to the long-awaited decision of the Eurogroup. The pair rose to 1.0950, but further growth was questionable – the price was stuck in the flat. In my opinion, this is due to several fundamental factors. First, the market is trading in a low liquidity environment. Today, in particular, the trading platforms of Germany, France, great Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and many other countries are closed. The first day of next week will also be a weekend – Easter Monday. On the eve of such holidays, traders do not risk opening large positions, especially given the ongoing coronavirus epidemic.

Secondly, the agreement reached does not mention the use of shared debt to finance recovery, i.e. the notorious crown bonds. Representatives of the southern countries of Europe — Italy, France and Spain — strongly insisted on the introduction of crown bonds. But representatives of Northern Europe – Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Estonia - categorically opposed this idea. As we can see, as a result of this confrontation, the North prevailed over the South. And here it is necessary to take into account that at this stage the agreement was agreed only by the EU finance ministers – now this decision must be discussed and approved by the leaders of the 27 EU countries. This means that the parties have yet to conduct many more complex discussions on this issue.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte made a rather harsh statement on the eve of the second round of negotiations - according to him, the European integration project will be "threatened" if the bloc countries do not agree on an economic response to the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, he zealously defends the idea of introducing crown bonds - at the first online summit, he very emotionally discussed this with his colleagues, but, as we see, he could not convince them. Given this disposition, it can be assumed that the following online summit of EU leaders will not be a simple formality: representatives of the south will probably raise the issue of crown bonds again, which they have been insisting on for several consecutive weeks. Therefore, EUR/USD buyers are in no hurry to "uncork champagne", especially since the date of this meeting has not yet been determined (and it is possible that it can take place on weekends).

Thirdly, the EUR/USD bulls lost indirect support from the oil market - let me remind you that OPEC + members were able to agree that oil production will be reduced by 10 million barrels per day in May and June, by 8 million from July to December, and by 6 million since January 2021. But this agreement may remain "on paper", as the Mexicans opposed - they refused to reduce their oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day. At the moment, negotiations have reached an impasse, although key members of the cartel were able to find a common denominator in this matter.

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Thus, the situation has largely remained in limbo. In general, there are all prerequisites for further growth, but the EUR/USD bulls lack only a few puzzles that would push the pair up to the 10th figure. From a technical point of view, if the pair consolidates above the resistance level of 1.0950 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart), then it will be possible to consider long positions to the level of 1.1010 (middle line of Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart).

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Fractal analysis of Gold, Silver, and Oil on April 10

Forecast for April 10:

Analytical review in H1 scale:

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For Gold, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 1744.86, 1726.71, 1703.84, 1692.46, 1670.84, 1657.09 and 1638.66. Here, we are following the development of the local ascending structure of March 31. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 1692.46 - 1703.84. In this case, the target is 1726.71. For the potential value for the top, the level of 1744.86 can be considered, and near which, a consolidation and a possible rollback to correction can be expected.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1670.84 - 1657.09. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1638.66. This level is a key support for the entire upward trend.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of March 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1704.00 Take profit: 1724.00

Buy: 1727.00 Take profit: 1744.00

Sell: 1670.00 Take profit: 1658.00

Sell: 1656.00 Take profit: 1640.00

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For Oil, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 34.46, 32.48, 29.64, 27.37, 23.46, 21.90, and 19.14. Here, we are following the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the top of March 30. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 27.37. In this case, the first goal is 29.64. The breakdown of this level will lead to the development of an upward cycle in the scale of H1 and H4. For the potential value for the top, it is still considered at the level of 34.46.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 23.46 - 21.90, hence, there is a high probability of an upward reversal. The breakdown of the level of 21.90 will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 19.14.

The main trend is the formation of a medium-term upward structure from March 30, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 27.40 Take profit: 29.60

Buy: 29.70 Take profit: 32.40

Sell: 23.46 Take profit: 22.00

Sell: 21.70 Take profit: 19.75

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For Silver, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 16.11, 15.76, 15.59, 15.31, 15.01, 14.81 and 14.54. Here, we are following the development of the local ascendant structure from April 1. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 15.31. In this case, the target is 15.59. On the other hand, price consolidation is in the range of 15.59 - 15.76. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 16.11. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 15.76.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 15.01 - 14.81. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 14.54. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of April 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 15.33 Take profit: 15.59

Buy: 15.77 Take profit: 16.10

Sell: 15.01 Take profit: 14.81

Sell: 14.78 Take profit: 14.55

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for April 10

Forecast for April 10:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1123, 1.1070, 1.1031, 1.0971, 1.0951, 1.0904, 1.0876 and 1.0826. Here, we are following the development of the ascendant structure of April 6. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.0951 - 1.0971. In this case, the target is 1.1031. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.1031 - 1.1070. For the potential value for the top, the level of 1.1123 can be considered. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.0904 - 1.0876. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0826. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the development of the rising structure of April 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0971 Take profit: 1.1030

Buy: 1.1033 Take profit: 1.1068

Sell: 1.0904 Take profit: 1.0877

Sell: 1.0874 Take profit: 1.0830

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2694, 1.2609, 1.2550, 1.2467, 1.2411, 1.2317, 1.2248, 1.2158 and 1.2003. Here, the price registered a local upward structure from April 7 to continue the development of the main trend. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.2411 - 1.2467. In this case, the target is 1.2550. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2550 - 1.2609. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2694. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2317 - 1.2248. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 1.2158. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2003. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2155.

The main trend is the local upward structure of April 7

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2468 Take profit: 1.2550

Buy: 1.2610 Take profit: 1.2694

Sell: 1.2317 Take profit: 1.2250

Sell: 1.2246 Take profit: 1.2158

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9729, 0.9701, 0.9679, 0.9644, 0.9599, 0.9569 and 0.9530. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of April 6. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9644. In this case, the target is 0.9599. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9599 - 0.9569. For the potential value for the bottom, the level of 0.9530 can be considered. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.9679 - 0.9701. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9729. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of April 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9680 Take profit: 0.9700

Buy : 0.9703 Take profit: 0.9727

Sell: 0.9642 Take profit: 0.9600

Sell: 0.9597 Take profit: 0.9573

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 111.11, 110.45, 109.99, 109.32, 108.70, 108.17, 107.58 and 106.88. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of April 1. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.32. In this case, the target is 109.99. Upon reaching this level, a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation in the range of 109.99 - 110.45 is expected. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 111.11. Upon reaching this level, a pullback to the bottom is expected.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 108.70 - 108.17. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.58. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend: the downward structure of March 25, the formation of potential for the top of April 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.32 Take profit: 109.97

Buy : 110.00 Take profit: 110.45

Sell: 108.15 Take profit: 107.65

Sell: 107.50 Take profit: 106.90

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.4220, 1.4147, 1.4090, 1.3933, 1.3883, 1.3760 and 1.3670. Here, the subsequent targets on the H1 scale can be determined from the descending structure on March 31. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range of 1.3933 - 1.3883. In this case, the target is 1.3760. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3670. Upon reaching which, a pullback to the top is expected.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.4090 - 1.4147. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.4220. This level is a key support for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of March 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.4090 Take profit: 1.4145

Buy : 1.4150 Take profit: 1.4220

Sell: 1.3883 Take profit: 1.3764

Sell: 1.3760 Take profit: 1.3670

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6582, 0.6528, 0.6443, 0.6383, 0.6289, 0.6224 and 0.6144. Here, we determine the subsequent goals for the top from the local ascending structure on April 3. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6383 - 0.6443. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6528. For the potential value for the upward trend, the level of 0.6582 is considered. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6289 - 0.6224. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6144. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of April 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6383 Take profit: 0.6440

Buy: 0.6445 Take profit: 0.6528

Sell : 0.6289 Take profit : 0.6230

Sell: 0.6220 Take profit: 0.6145

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.07, 120.30, 119.76, 119.05, 117.83, 117.28, 116.35 and 115.23. Here, we are following the initial conditions for the upward cycle of April 2. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 119.05. In this case, the target is 119.76. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 119.76 - 120.30. We consider the level 121.07 to be a potential value for the upward trend. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 117.83 - 117.28. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the goal is 116.35. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 115.23. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 116.30.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of April 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.05 Take profit: 119.76

Buy: 119.78 Take profit: 120.30

Sell: 117.83 Take profit: 117.30

Sell: 117.25 Take profit: 116.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 137.93, 137.49, 136.66, 135.86, 134.61, 133.93, 133.37 and 132.29. Here, we determine the subsequent goals for the top from the local ascending structure on April 3. The continuation of the development of the upward trend is expected after the breakdown of the level of 135.86. In this case, the target is 136.66, price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 136.66 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 137.93. Price consolidation is in the range of 137.93 - 137.49, and from here, a reversal in correction is expected.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 134.61 - 133.93. The range of 133.93 - 133.37 is the key support for the upward structure from April 3, its passage at the price will lead to the formation of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 132.29.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of April 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.86 Take profit: 136.60

Buy: 136.70 Take profit: 137.49

Sell: 134.60 Take profit: 134.00

Sell: 133.90 Take profit: 133.40

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Chronicles of economic depression: just the beginning. Overview of EUR and GBP

The Federal Reserve continues to pump markets with liquidity. The Fed's balance sheet grew by $1.7 trillion in less than a month, and the monetary base by more than $1 trillion. Despite the fact that all this cash is in demand at the stage of deepening the crisis, such steps for the dollar can not pass without a trace.

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Expansion of the Fed's balance sheet after the 2008 crisis led to a significant saturation of the market with dollar liquidity, but then an excess of liquidity weakened the dollar, and US economic growth slowed its recovery. In the last month, the Fed uses the same methods, but much more aggressively, the balance before the end of this year may well reach the level of 9-10 trillion.

We should also assume that the global yield has collapsed this year, and the US has lost any advantage in terms of yield over other currency zones. It is no accident that CFTC reports show that in recent weeks speculators are moving away from the dollar, because they expect that after the first signs of stabilization appear, excessive dollar liquidity will inevitably lead to its fall.

Only the global OPEC++ deal involving the United States, Canada, Mexico and the United Kingdom can make significant adjustments to the current situation, but the chances of such an outcome are very small. The decline in production will occur, but only after there is strong evidence of a global decline in industrial production.

EURUSD

Europe is facing a real threat of division. On the eve of the meeting of EU finance ministers, Italy approved the so-called "liquidity decree" worth 400 billion euros, bringing the amount of financial obligations of the government to 750 billion euros, and all this – without the approval of the EU. At the same time, a group of EU countries led by Germany insists on a single aid mechanism that should be linked to future economic reforms, and until this happens, no crown bonds can be issued.

Therefore, the eurozone is not yet able to release liquidity to the markets that would cover the supply of the dollar. A significant gap in the supply will push up the European currency, growth to the resistance zone of 1.1050/70 is justified, then the goal of 1.1150, in the medium term, the euro will strive to the upper limit of the channel 1.1310/40.

GBPUSD

Industrial production in Great Britain restrained itself from a deep fall in February, and the decline was only 2.8% y/y, which turned out to be even slightly better than expected. At the same time, the trade balance with countries outside the EU fell to -5.573 billion pounds, with a forecast of -0.5 billion, and this, apparently, is only the first sign of an impending economic catastrophe.

NIESR estimated the fall in GDP for three months through February inclusive at 0.1%, but voiced much darker forecasts for Q2. In their opinion, quarantine causes the largest reduction in economic activity since 1921, and GDP is projected to decrease by 5% in the first quarter and by 15-25% in the second. The chart from the NIESR report speaks for itself:

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Under current conditions, no financial institution undertakes to give a reasonable forecast of both the depth of the fall and its length over time. NIESR suggests that the main blow will be in sectors such as trade (40%), transport (40%), production (30%), construction (30%), while the financial sector will suffer by 10%, and mining minerals - by 5%. The last point is somewhat surprising - against the backdrop of a global decline in oil demand, OPEC+ countries are already negotiating a reduction in production from 10% to 30%, and the UK is going to lose only 5% in the sector as a whole.

Be that as it may, we must proceed from the fact that the pound has no internal resources for growth. GBPUSD has again approached the resistance zone 1.2560/80, which it has been unsuccessfully attacking for two weeks, and technically the possibility of going higher to 1.2870/2910 looks rather likely. But from the point of view of the overall fundamental picture, there is no reason to believe that the pound will be able to win amid a global fall in demand for resources. The likelihood of a decline to 1.2150/2200, that is, a departure to the side range, is much more justified.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 04/10/2020 and trading recommendation

Oil suddenly came out on top in the news feeds, pushing coronavirus into second place. All the media are busy discussing negotiations to reduce oil production. Although there is no final agreement yet, it is clear to everyone that talks are going well. At least no one gets up and leaves. However, Mexico tried to make a similar maneuver, but quickly announced the volumes by which it can reduce daily production. The most important thing is that the largest exporters seem to have found mutual understanding. And oddly enough, this has a direct relationship to the dollar. And in a negative way. After all, if the major oil exporters can agree, the oil market will inevitably stabilize, and given the incredible dependence of the world economy on oil supplies, this will be the beginning of stabilization of the entire global financial market. And if the markets calm down, then the risks are reduced, and the huge mass of capital that has recently been running away from risk will once again flow out of the United States. So this is not the best scenario for the dollar rate. The only thing that has a positive effect on the dollar so far is that the agreement itself has not yet been finalized, and its specific details have not even been specified. So far, we are talking about the parties' agreement in principle to make mutual concessions.

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At the same time, we must admit that US data continues to cause horror. The situation in the labor market is getting worse and worse every week. This time, however, there were no new records for the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, which turned out to be 6,606 thousand. That is 261 thousand less than last week, when the historical record was set. But the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits reached a record high. They should have been 6,990 thousand, which is already the highest in history, but in fact, they turned out to be as much as 7,455 thousand. So the situation in the United States labor market is even worse than expected. This is the third consecutive week. We must admit that the weakening of the dollar against the single European currency, in fact, began immediately after the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits.

Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):

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Today, Europe and the United States celebrate Good Friday, which means that markets will be closed. Therefore, the market will essentially stand still. However, US inflation data will be released today, which can still revive the market a little. Although response to this data will be on Monday. So, inflation should fall from 2.3% to 1.5%, and such a sharp slowdown may be a reason for the Federal Reserve to once again think about reducing the refinancing rate. This will automatically lead to a decrease in the yield of government debt securities. And their profitability has already significantly declined recently, further into the negative zone. So investors will clearly not be very happy with the prospect of a lower refinancing rate.

Inflation (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that there is a correctional move from the support level of 1.0775 since the beginning of the trading week, where in the end we managed to pass more than 170 points. In fact, we have a recovery of about 50% relative to the earlier inertia move, where a small stagnation was formed at the conditional peak.

In terms of general analysis of the trading schedule, the daily period, it is worth considering that all past movements had the form of inertia, with a working out of about 70-80%.

We can assume that the stagnation at the peak of the correction course of 1.0920/1.0950 is temporary, where the occurrence of local impulses is not excluded, working for the breakdown of the established boundaries.

We will specify all of the above into trading signals:

- Buy positions are considered higher than 1.0955, with the prospect of a move to 1.0970-1.1000.

- Positions for sale are considered lower than 1.0915, with the prospect of a move to 1.0890-1.0850.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that due to the current corrective move, the indicators of technical instruments have taken an upward position, signaling a purchase.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 10. Bulls stubbornly prepare a breakout of 1.2484, but not today

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Given that many markets are closed today due to Good Friday, buyers of the British pound are unlikely to be able to break through the important resistance of 1.2484. The task of the bulls will be to break through and consolidate above this range, which will result in dismantling the bears' stop orders and further, a powerful growth of the pound with reaching highs of 1.2605 and 1.2686, where I recommend taking profits. If the pair declines, I advise that you return to long positions only after the test of the lower middle of the side channel of 1.2363-83, provided that a false breakout is formed there, or buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from a large level of 1.2285, counting on a correction of 40-50 points within the day. Since there are no important fundamental statistics in the first half of the day, amid low trading volume, speculators can take control of the market, which can lead to a sharp movement in one direction or another, with the same sharp return to a fair price.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound could not regain the 1.2383 area, and so they retreated from the market to test a larger resistance, which is the upper limit of the side channel of 1.2484. The formation of a false breakout there in the first half of the day will be a signal to open short positions in order to return to the support of 1.2383, which is the middle of the channel. Bad data on the state of US inflation will help the bears. Weak data will remind traders of the current state of the economy, which could return demand for safe-haven assets. A return and consolidation below the level of 1.2383 will result in the pair's fall to the support area of 1.2285, the break of which will completely pull down the GBP/USD to a weekly low in the area of 1.2166, where I recommend taking profits. If the pound rises above the resistance of 1.2484, it is best to return to short positions only on the test of more recent highs of 1.2605 and 1.2686.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the advantage of buyers of the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator at 1.2484 will result in a larger increase in the pound. A breakout of the lower boundary in the region of 1.2419 may raise the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 10. The pound targeted 1.28. "Coronavirus Iceberg" for the American "Titanic"

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 164.0385

The British pound continued to move up during the past day and worked out the Murray level of "6/8"-1.2451, which we called the upper line of the side channel. Thus, overcoming this level will increase the probability of resuming the upward trend. We do not believe that the pound now has sufficient motivation to continue strengthening against the dollar. However, we should not forget that the US dollar also did not quite reasonably rise by 1,700 points. The decline began from the level of 1.28. Thus, it is possible to expect a return of the rates to this level. Volatility in the pound continues to decline, which also speaks in favor of calming market participants.

In addition to all the events listed in the article on EUR/USD, on Thursday, April 9, the Fed announced a new program of assistance to the US economy for 2.3 trillion dollars. Earlier, the Fed expanded the quantitative easing program to unlimited values, and also lowered the key rate to 0.25%. After that, the US government adopted its $ 2 trillion economic assistance program. And now a new package that will be aimed at lending to small and medium-sized businesses, as well as to help the authorities of each state. "The Federal Reserve went to additional measures of support, providing another $2.3 trillion in loans. This funding will help households and businesses of any size, as well as strengthen the ability of state authorities to provide essential services during an epidemic," the Fed said in a statement. It is also reported that loans to companies will be provided for 4 years with deferred principal payments and interest for 1 year. However, all this news did not provide any support to the US currency. Do not forget that the currency market is run by traders who can buy or sell a particular currency based on their considerations. Moreover, so far, all the actions of the US government and the Fed do not lead to any mitigation of the fall of the US economy. Almost 17 million people have lost their jobs in three weeks, and this is not the end of it. What will be the data on industrial production, GDP, inflation, retail sales, and orders for long-term goods? So far, the US economy is very much like the "Titanic". Huge, rich, but surprisingly slow and capable of collapsing because of a single iceberg in the form of a "coronavirus". After all, in fact, "coronavirus" is not the most deadly disease on the planet. There are a lot of other diseases from which a much larger number of people die every year. But because of these diseases, no quarantine is declared, and the economy does not stop. So, the American economy now has every chance to collapse because of the usual strain of flu.

On the one hand, the Fed tries to radiate optimism, saying that it will use all available tools to support the economy. This was stated yesterday by the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. On the other hand, Powell also hinted that the Fed's options are not unlimited. "We will continue to use the tools decisively and aggressively until we are confident that we are firmly on the path to recovery," Powell said. The Fed Chairman also said that the Regulator will stop using emergency tools when it is fully confident that all private institutions and markets will be able to perform their functions. Jerome Powell himself is worried about rapidly moving unemployment values away from their 50-year lows. "The priority for the Fed is private markets," Powell summed up, "they play a key role in the economy."

Meanwhile, the UK can extend the quarantine until May. It is reported that such measures may be taken since doctors are still not sure when exactly the "peak" of the coronavirus outbreak will occur. The British continue to get infected and continue to die. The total number of deaths already exceeds 7,000. The country's Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is also still in the hospital. From circles close to Johnson, it is reported that the Prime Minister is getting better, the treatment helps.

On the last trading day of the week, all macroeconomic data is scheduled in the United States. Market participants reacted yesterday to another failed report on unemployment claims, so there are hopes that today's inflation report will also be worked out. According to experts' forecasts, the consumer price index will slow down from 2.3% to 1.6% in annual terms in March. In monthly terms, inflation may lose 0.3%. The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, is likely to slow from 2.4% to 2.3% y/y. In other words, the decline will be extremely insignificant, and the main indicator of inflation, it turns out, will fall mainly due to oil prices. In any case, lower inflation is a negative factor for the US and the dollar. Thus, today we can again expect a fall in the US currency.

However, traders are no less terrified of the data on the British economy. It is expected that the indicators of industrial production and GDP may collapse in March-April by 10-20%. These are huge numbers. So, no matter how bad the US economy looks, the situation is no better in the Foggy Albion. Therefore, the British currency is unlikely to receive long-term support.

From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair continues to be inside the side channel, with the upper limit in the range of 1.2450-1.2470. During the last trading day, the pair did not manage to overcome it confidently. Thus, at the moment, the option of rebounding from this level and resuming the downward movement by 150-200 points is relevant. However, overcoming the Murray level of "6/8" may open the way for the pound to the North. Another question is, how long will the British currency stay in the North? What are the fundamental reasons for strengthening it? We remind you that the topic of Brexit is actually put on pause, but sooner or later it will be removed from it. And then all the problems of the UK caused by the "coronavirus" will be multiplied by the problems associated with the exit from the European Union, which has lasted for more than three years and has every chance to continue for another 2 years if the "transition period" is extended. And the chances of its extension, "thanks" to the pandemic, have grown very much recently...

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to decline and is currently 158 points. However, the activity of traders on the pound/dollar pair remains quite high. On Friday, April 10, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2314 and 1.2630. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a turn of the downward movement inside the channel. The absence of a reversal will greatly increase the pound's chances of further growth.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2329

S2 - 1.2207

S3 - 1.2085

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2451

R2 - 1.2573

R3 - 1.2695

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe continues to trade with an upward bias and tries to determine the further direction of movement. A rebound may follow from the upper border of the channel. In this case, you can sell the pound with a target of 1.2200. It is recommended to buy pound with targets of 1.2573 and 1.2630 after fixing the price above the Murray level of "6/8"-1.2451. It is also recommended to open sell positions after the bears overcome the moving average and the level of 1.2329 with the first target level of 1.2207.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 10. Agreed 500 billion euros to help eurozone countries. Bulls ready for

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's news that the eurozone finance ministers managed to agree on a package of measures worth 0.5 trillion euros supported the European currency, which managed to resume its upward trend. Weak fundamental data on a sharp increase in the number of unemployed in the US put additional pressure on the US dollar. At the moment, an important task for euro buyers is to protect the support of 1.0897, where the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions in the hope of continuing growth in the short term. There are also moving averages below this level, which will provide additional support. The nearest target of the bulls is the resistance of 1.0969, where there could be problems with the breakout. Consolidating above this level will open a direct path to the highs of 1.1033 and 1.139, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

It is Good Friday today and markets are closed in several countries, which will have a significant impact on volatility, but also provide an opportunity for speculators. The primary task of euro sellers is to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.0969, which will be a signal to open short positions in the expectation of a decline to the support of 1.0897, where today I advise you to take profits. Poor data on inflation in the US will certainly lead to a breakout of this low, as it will strengthen demand for safe-haven assets, which will open a direct road to the support area of 1.0834. If the demand for the euro remains in the resistance area of 1.0969, it is best to postpone short positions until the test of the high of 1.1033, from where you can expect a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates further continued growth of the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the region of 1.0969, and in case the pair falls, the lower border in the 1.0875 area will provide support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 10. The world economy will lose 5 trillion dollars and will begin to recover no earlier

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 173.2524

The EUR/USD currency pair could not continue its downward movement after it settled below the moving average. Yesterday, the pair returned to the area above this line and resumed its upward movement in accordance with the scenario we announced earlier. Thus, the price continues to move to the level of 1.1000, which is located just above the Murray level of "2/8". After working out this level, further upward movement will depend on the Heiken Ashi indicator, then a downward turn will indicate the beginning of a correction. Both channels of linear regression are directed downward, but we are not yet considering the option of resuming the downward trend. Volatility continues to decline, which can not but please traders who want to trade consciously and in accordance with the fundamental background.

It just so happens that in recent days, the fundamental background is simply bursting at the seams from the volume of various information. Among the key topics of recent days: the Eurogroup talks on the adoption of a package of assistance to the European economy for 540 billion euros, the publication of the minutes of the last two Fed meetings, the next report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, the OPEC meeting, and the Fed's new actions to stimulate the American economy. We cannot say that all of the above topics are affecting the EUR/USD pair currently. From our point of view, traders reacted yesterday only to the report on applications for benefits, which showed an additional 6.6 million requests. And it is already good that market participants have begun to react at least a little to what is happening in the world, and not just buy a particular currency for their goals and their trading strategies. Now the process of predicting future movements of the pair is a little easier.

However, let's go back to the list of topics listed above. Let's start with the fact that the minutes of the last two meetings of the Fed did not cause any reaction from traders and did not contain fundamentally new and unexpected information. The final communique said that the Federal Reserve is ready to keep the key rate at a low level for as long as necessary and will not start raising it until the beginning of the US economic recovery. Thus, it is already easy to assume that in the next year there will be no talk of tightening monetary policy in the United States. The Fed also announced an unlimited quantitative stimulus program, as well as a number of other programs to support the American economy. In other words, the Fed will pump money into the economy by all means, so that it does not collapse. In a crisis and a global epidemic, this is absolutely logical, and the ECB and other Central banks are now doing the same. The meeting of the Eurogroup, which is just designed to approve the package of assistance to the European economy, has not yet ended, so there is no new information on this topic. However, most experts agree that the 540-billion package will be approved by 19 Eurozone Finance Ministers. We are talking about saving Italy and Spain in the first place, which was most affected by the "coronavirus" epidemic.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg experts estimate that the consequences of the current crisis will be overcome at least by the end of 2021. And then we are talking primarily about developed countries, such as the United States or Germany. Developing countries will recover their economies for at least 5 years. The total loss of the world economy will amount to about 5 trillion dollars, which is equivalent to 8% of world GDP. Analysts at Citigroup and JPMorgan agree with these forecasts and also "promise" a reduction in global GDP of at least $ 5 trillion. Bloomberg also notes that despite absolutely gigantic monetary and fiscal incentives, the economy will not recover earlier than in two years.

At the same time, many analysts and traders are closely watching another event of the day, which takes place just at these hours. We are talking about the OPEC meeting, which is designed to solve the problems of low oil prices. Quotes of "black gold" in the run-up to the meeting are growing, which may be a good sign. After all, low oil prices do not benefit any member of OPEC, that is, the number one energy-producing countries in the world. Thus, there is only one way out of this situation: to make concessions and reduce oil production. Only in this case, the commodity market will stabilize, and many countries that export oil will not get an additional blow to the economy in an already difficult time, when the "coronavirus" epidemic is raging all over the world. We are talking, for example, about the same United States, the same Great Britain, and Russia. The key issues of a possible agreement relate to Saudi Arabia, which wants the Russian Federation to increase oil cuts; to Russia, which does not want to go to the conditions of the Saudis; and to the States, whose shale companies suffer huge losses, but it seems they are not going to reduce oil production. This topic has a very indirect relation to the currency market, however, it should not be overlooked, since all world markets are closely linked to each other.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump "saddled his favorite horse" and again made a statement that "coronavirus" will be able to win soon. According to Trump, "the United States is ahead of schedule in slowing the spread of infection." "I don't like to talk about it too loudly, because suddenly nothing happens. But I think that this will take place in the near future," the odious US leader said. Well, members of the US National Academy of Sciences made a statement that completely refutes Trump's words that "the virus will not survive the warm season". According to scientists, only a small number of people on the planet are immune to the COVID-2019 virus. Thus, the weather will not significantly affect the decrease in the growth rate of the pandemic. This information was sent to the White House by the Academy of Sciences. Scientists also provide examples of warm countries where the virus is also spreading very quickly – Iran and Australia.

Lastly, I would like to mention the speech of Christine Lagarde, the ECB President, who said that European governments need to support each other in difficult times. "Fiscal and monetary policy must be coordinated, and conditions must be equal for all countries in dealing with the emergency," Lagarde said. Lagarde also rejected the possibility of widespread cancellation of debt obligations, but at the same time admitted that the crisis should be overcome first with minimal losses and only then think "how to pay off debts".

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains quite high but continues to decline. As of April 10, the average volatility is less than 100 points - 97. We believe that the markets continue to return to normal, however, there may be new outbursts of panic. Today, we expect a further decrease in volatility and price movement between the levels of 1.0843 and 1.1037. The pair is aiming for the 1.10 level, and the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will indicate the possible completion of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0864

S2 - 1.0742

S3 - 1.0620

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0986

R2 - 1.1108

R3 - 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement. Thus, traders are now recommended to consider purchases with the goals of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986 and 1.1037. It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price below the moving average line and the Murray level of "1/8"-1.864 with the first goal of 1.0742.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 10, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound is slowly approaching the MACD line on the daily chart, where it expects a Fibonacci level of 123.6% to the area of 1.2560. The red balance line is also approaching the same point.

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Although there's a high probability that the price will reach this magnetic point, a reversal, in the form of a medium-term decline, is still possible.

On the four-hour chart, the situation is completely upwards; the price is above the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is growing in the zone of positive values.

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The first sign of the pound's reversal is the price falling below the MACD line, approximately at the level of 1.2345. After that, we expect it to go to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (1.2235), consolidate below it, and drop further to the Fibonacci level of 200.0% at the price of 1.1935.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 10, 2020

EUR / USD

On Thursday, the euro continued its correction, rising to the lower boundary of the target range 1.0955 / 80. The price approached the price channel line on the daily scale chart, which completed one of the options for this correction. Its continuation can be restricted by the MACD line (indicator blue) at the level of 1.0980, to which it approaches. In this case, Marlin oscillator's signal line will test the boundary with the growth temporary and, in the case of a possible price reversal, will turn around with it from this indicator resistance.

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The price is located above the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the growing trend zone.

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Technical growth will be replaced by a decline with the price moving under the MACD line (1.0825), which is also close to Tuesday's minimum. In this case, the goal of the decline will be to support the price channel in the region of 1.0615.

Today is a holiday in the United States and Europe in observance of the Catholic Easter. Therefore, low volatility is expected.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on April 10, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose by 109 points on Thursday, halting growth before the MACD line on the daily scale chart. The price could turn down from the current levels, maybe a little later, with preliminary testing of the embedded line of the price channel at the level of 0.6400.

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The condition for a reversal is that the price goes under the price channel line at 0.6185, and the movement is aimed at the trend line of 0.5815.

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The Marlin oscillator forms a downward turn on the four-hour chart. The signal level of 0.6185 of the higher timeframe coincides with the April 1 peak (tick) and with the support of the MACD line, where it can be in a day, that is, on Monday morning.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on April 10, 2020

USD/JPY

The dollar against the yen could not overcome the resistance of the MACD and balance indicator lines on the daily scale chart on Thursday, the price fell by 37 points. To strengthen the emerging downward trend, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator should move to the zone of negative values (daily), which is possible with the price overcoming yesterday's low.

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But a strong support zone of 106.92-107.76 is below the price, formed by the nearby lines of the price channel. It is possible to say that the price has come out of uncertainty and is heading to 102.55, to the price channel line, when the price has reached its lower limit of 106.92.

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The price is supported by the balance indicator line on the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone, but there is still a potential to work off the MACD line (109.45), which will look like a price increase on the MACD line on the daily chart.

Volatility is expected to be low today since it is a holiday in the US and Europe due to the eve of Catholic Easter.

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EUR/USD. Buying the pair is risky, despite the Fed's "monetary surprise"

The euro-dollar pair received unexpected support today, after which the bulls were able to test the ninth figure and even approach the resistance level of 1.0950 (the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart). Although there were no prerequisites for such price spikes in the morning: traders froze in anticipation of new negotiations between the EU finance ministers, and the euro-dollar pair, respectively, fluctuated in a narrow price range, reacting sluggishly to the accompanying rumors and assumptions. But, as it often happens in the foreign exchange market, the situation changed after the Federal Reserve unveiled a program to help the USeconomy. After this, dollar bulls lost their footing.

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The package provides loans to businesses and households, as well as support for municipal debt obligations. As the Fed noted, households and companies (representatives of both small and large businesses), as well as local authorities will receive assistance. First, the regulator will create a mechanism to support the lending fund worth $350 billion – this step is part of the overall package of incentives totaling two trillion dollars (it was approved in the previous month). Second, the Fed will support local authorities, both at the state and municipal levels. The aid will be provided through loans worth $500 billion. In addition, members of the Fed created a new Main Street Lending Program worth $600 billion – to help medium-sized companies (the number of employees should not exceed the 10,000 mark, and annual revenues in the pre-crisis period should be less than $2.5 billion). The essence of the program is to provide loans for four years with deferred principal and interest for a year. The regulator also expanded primary and secondary lending to corporations and a program of term loans secured by asset-backed securities. Under another mechanism, the regulator will buy short-term bonds worth up to $500 billion directly from states, counties and cities.

After the US central bank announced the new measures, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented on the current situation during his speech, which was held online. Following his reputation, the Fed chief tried to maintain a balance in his rhetoric. On the one hand, he said that the US economy will show "very strong weakness" in the second quarter. He also warned of a sharp rise in the unemployment rate. By the way, the figures published today quite eloquently illustrated his words. The number of applications for unemployment benefits is growing at a tremendous pace for the third consecutive week: this figure jumped to three million the week before last, to 6.8 million last week, and it came out at 6.6 million today. And although the latest Nonfarms showed an increase in unemployment to 4.4%, in fact, the situation is much worse now (judging by the growth rate of the number of applications mentioned above, the real unemployment rate may be at the level of 10-12%).

Still, Powell tried to "sweeten the pill." In his opinion, the US economy will recover at the same rapid pace as it is now falling down. He also praised his colleagues, expressing confidence that the Fed's actions have contributed to improving market conditions. Well, in the end, he suggested that the situation will normalize in the second half of the year, but in the meantime, the Fed is ready to"lend a support shoulder".

The market has reacted quite volatile to recent events. First of all, the level of anti-risk sentiment decreased - the dollar as the main protective asset began to lose positions in all pairs. Indirect support for the EUR/USD bulls was provided by the oil market, where a truce is also brewing: according to one information source, Russia is ready to reduce oil production by 1.6 million barrels per day, according to other data, Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed on a stronger reduction in oil production. Today, during a video conference, key OPEC+ players will try to find a compromise solution, and, according to many experts, they will be able to come to an agreement. Such prospects also put pressure on the greenback, as overall demand for safe haven currencies declined.

Nevertheless, despite the seemingly unambiguous fundamental background, it is still not worth rushing to trade decisions on the EUR/USD pair. The fact is that the next online negotiations between the finance ministers of the EU countries started today. Officials will again try to agree on a plan to support the European economy. There are conflicting rumors around this event – according to one information, an agreement will still be reached today (although negotiations may drag on until tomorrow morning), according to another information, representatives of the South (Italy, Spain) still insist on crown bonds, while representatives of the North (Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, Estonia) are against this idea, defending other mechanisms.

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And here it is worth noting that any outcome of these negotiations will provoke strong volatility for the pair. The European currency will either strengthen its success against the dollar and enter the 10th figure, or lose all the positions it has won and plunge to the local low of 1.0763. It is also worth remembering that due to low liquidity (many European markets will be closed because of Catholic Good Friday tomorrow) reactions can be too rough, so at the moment, it is better to wait and not play the guessing game.

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