Wave analysis of GBP / USD for August 14. The pound sterling can still continue falling

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on August 13, the GBP / USD currency pair increased by approximately 20 percentage points. Such a slight increase in the pair does not give grounds for assuming the completion of the construction of wave 5, 3, a. If this assumption is correct, then the decline in quotations, after a short break, will resume with targets near the level of 261.8% on the senior Fibonacci grid. In general, if the current wave counting is not complicated, then wave 5 is nearing completion. Thus, I do not recommend increasing the sales of the pair. However, a favorable news background may help the dollar continue to grow in tandem with the British pound.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3301 - 161.8% of Fibonacci (the oldest Fibonacci grid)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2758 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

1.2636 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (the oldest Fibonacci grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair remains in the framework of the construction of the downward trend section. Today, I recommend that you continue to remain in sales, or even gradually reduce sales, in anticipation of a breakthrough mark of 1.2758, which corresponds to 261.8% of Fibonacci, with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.2636. However, I recommend not to increase sales, since wave 5, if not complicated, may end in the coming days.

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GBP / JPY: Pair growth is just a correction

The currency pair pound / yen in two weeks of August lost nearly 600 points against the background of Brexit's problems and the increased demand for protective tools.

Yesterday, the impulse of the downward movement was extinguished and the bulls were able to seize the initiative, especially since the need for price correction had long overdue and overhauled. But here, it is worth remembering that the pair is still within the southern trend, and judging by the monthly schedule, the "power reserve" allows you to decrease by a few hundred points, up to 137 figures, that is, to the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on MN. The prospect of further decline depends on two factors. First, the dynamics of the Turkish crisis, and secondly, the dynamics of the key macroeconomic indicators of Britain. Today and tomorrow, data on the market of the British labor market and inflation will be published. And although the fate of the interest rate now completely depends on the issue of Brexit, macroeconomic statistics can not be ignored either. Especially, if it is a pair of GBP / JPY in the context of a possible continuation of the southern trend.

So, what do experts promise us? According to general forecasts, it is impossible to count on any breakthrough in the British indicators, indicators should either remain in the field of previous values or demonstrate a decline. Thus, the number of applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced to almost two thousand (the previous figure is 7.8K), and the unemployment rate remains at 4.2% (the figure is at this level since February this year). The dynamics of salary growth should also remain at the same level of 2.5%. This indicator has slowed down somewhat, if we speak about the general trend in the framework of this year.analytics5b727e2e643c6.jpg

In general, inflation indicators should also not impress traders. The consumer price index in monthly terms may "dive" into the negative area for the first time since January of this year. However, this will be the minimum deviation from the level of the previous month, when the release came out at zero level. In annual terms, the index should, on the contrary, add 0.1%, that is, reach the level of 2.5%. If we talk about core inflation, then the indicator should reach the previous level of 1.9%.

Thus, the predicted values of British statistics are not impressive. Therefore, if the real figures even deviate minimally from the forecast in the direction of decline, then the pound will again be under rather strong pressure. Moreover, the theme of Brexit is still not capable of supporting the British currency. Against the background of a temporary lull in the press, there is conflicting information about the intentions of Brussels and London. So, in early August, traders discussed the news that the EU is ready to make serious concessions, in particular, to allow Britain to remain in the single market, while retaining the right of free movement of goods. Officially, no one confirmed this information and refuted it.

Then, there were other rumors, more believable. According to one of the American news agencies, Britain will delay the negotiation process until the end of November to enlist the support of Donald Trump at the G20 summit. Until then, London will not sign any agreements, although previously the parties planned to agree on a framework agreement until October. Considering the fact that Brexit will in any case be held on March 29, 2019, Theresa May put the fate of the deal on the line. If the negotiations at the G20 summit fail, the probability of a "hard" Brexit will be almost 100%. However, this information is also a rumor, so the pound is under pressure of general nervousness.

The yen, in turn, traditionally follows an external fundamental background. Today, the panic in the foreign exchange market declined significantly, and this fact provoked craving for risky currencies. The reason for a certain detente was the meeting of the US president's adviser on national security with the Turkish ambassador to the United States. This meeting was initiated by the Turkish side (after the failed negotiations in late July), which means that Ankara is still looking for ways to normalize relations between countries.

Against the backdrop of such news, the Japanese currency became cheaper throughout the market, and the GBP / JPY currency pair was no exception. In general, trading this cross, you should remember two nuances. Firstly, the price for almost two weeks practically receded and reached a year and a half minimum, that is, corrective growth is inevitable (which we are now observing). Secondly, the pound's problems have not disappeared and can again remind themselves in the very near future. If the key indicators of the labor market and inflation in Britain go worse than expected, the British will easily lose all the positions he has won. The Brexit theme, which is still "on standby", can also interrupt the growth of the pound.

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In other words, the growth of cross-pair GBP / JPY should be considered as a corrective recovery, but no more. The trend remains descending, the signals on all the "older" timeframes speak about this. On daily, weekly and monthly charts, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo generated a bearish "Line Parade" signal, and the price itself is between the middle and bottom lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. Probable "ceiling" of corrective growth is located in the area of 144.50, this is the Tenkan-sen line on the weekly chart. This level of resistance to the bulls of the pair to break will not be easy, given the overall negative fundamental background of the pound.

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Markets took a break

After the growth of demand last week for defensive assets and, as a consequence, for the US dollar, on Monday, this trend has stopped. Investors assess the prospects of the crisis of the Turkish economy and the degree of the negative impact of the trade war between the US and China.

Last week, the collapse of the Turkish lira triggered a chain reaction on world trading floors. Against this background, under pressure were shares of companies in the European financial sector, which "pulled" for themselves and other sectors that are already experiencing problems amid the escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing. These events aroused great resonance, which caused a drop in investors' risk appetite and growth in demand for defense assets.

But already on Monday, the degree of tension decreased slightly. The attention of the market is now turned to the publication of an important macro statistics from Germany and the eurozone, which, with its positive values, can lead to a local demand for risky assets.

According to the data presented, the CPI in Germany in July should add 0.3%, the same as in June. In annual terms, it is also assumed that the growth rate of inflation will be 2.0%. If the data prove to be no worse than the forecast, then this can help the single currency to stabilize at the current levels. Also today, Germany's GDP will be released, which is expected to grow to 2.5% yoy, as against 1.6% in the previous period. In the second quarter, the indicator should grow by 0.4% against the previous release of 0.3%. In addition to these important data, the August values of the economic sentiment index from ZEW in Germany will be published. It is assumed that the indicator will add up to -20.1 points against -24.7 points.

In general, assessing the expected data, we can assume that if they do not prove worse than forecasts, this can stabilize the situation on world markets and promote local growth in demand for risky assets, which in turn will support the course of not only the single European currency, but also other traded against dollar of currencies. It is likely that these data will be the reason for the continued fixation of profits on the US dollar. But, despite the likely positive, we believe that its possible weakening will be temporary, since in general, the general situation in the markets and around them favors further local strengthening of the US currency.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR / USD currency pair is consolidating below the level of 1.1425, pending the release of important data on the economies of Germany and the euro area. If the data prove to be strong, it can support the pair, which breaking through the level of 1.1425 could grow to 1.1515.

The currency pair USD / JPY is recovering and is under the resistance line of the short-term downtrend. On the wave of growth in demand for risky assets, the pair can overcome the level of 110.95 and grow to 111.50.

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on August 14. The growth potential of Euro is limited

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart made a return to the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1431. Quit of quotes from the correction level of 127.2% will allow traders to count on the pair's turn in favor of the US currency and the resumption of falling towards the level of Fibo 161.8% - 1.1333. On August 14, there are no visible divergences. Strengthening the rate above the correction level of 127.2% will increase the probability of continuing growth towards the next Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1508.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from June 21, 2018, and July 9, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair performed fixing under the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Thus, the drop in quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Brewing divergences today is not observed in any indicator. The rebound of quotations from the Fibo level of 127.2% will allow us to expect a turn in favor of the European currency and some growth towards the correction level of 100.0%, while the closing below the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of further decline.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair will be possible for 1,1508 with a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 127.2% if the pair completes the closing above the correction level of 1.1431.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can now be opened with the target of 1.1333, as the pair retired from the Fibo level of 127.2%, with a Stop Loss order above 1.1431.

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Fractal analysis of GOLD as of August 14

Forecast for August 14:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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According to Gold, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1203.06, 1198, 39, 1195.31, 1191.05, 1188.55 and 1183.34. Here, we follow the development of the downward cycle from August 3. The continuation of the movement downwards is expected after the passage at the price of the noise range of 1191.05 - 1188.55. In this case, the target is 1183.34, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 1195.31 - 1198.39 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1203.06 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward cycle from August 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1195.31 Take profit: 1198.10

Buy: 1199.00 Take profit: 1203.00

Sell: 1188.50 Take profit: 1183.70

Sell: Take profit:

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of August 14

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the price for the current moment is in correction and the continuation of the movement downwards is expected after the breakdown of 1.1335. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we continue to move downwards after the breakdown of 1.2727, we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we follow the formation of the upward structure of August 9, the level of 0.9915 is the key support. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price forms the potential for the top of August 13. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the top of August 13. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the top of August 13.

Forecast for August 14:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1539, 1.1471, 1.1433, 1.1403, 1.1360, 1.1335 and 1.1282. Here, we follow the downward structure from August 8. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the movement downwards is possible after the passage at the price of the noise range of 1.1360 - 1.1335. In this case, the potential target is 1.1282, from this level we expect a rollback upward.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.1403 - 1.1433 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1471 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to develop an upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.1539.

The main trend is the local downward structure of August 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1403 Take profit: 1.1431

Buy 1.1435 Take profit: 1.1470

Sell: 1.1333 Take profit: 1.1284

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2913, 1.2845, 1.2802, 1.2727, 1.2684 and 1.2655. Here, we determined the subsequent goals from the local downward structure of August 7. The continuation of the movement downwards is expected after the breakdown of 1.2727. In this case, the target is 1.2684 and in the corridor of 1.2684 - 1.2655 is the consolidation of the price, from this range, we also expect a pullback upward.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.2802 - 1.2845 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2913 and this level is the key support for the bottom. Its passage by the price will have to form the initial conditions for the top.

The main trend is the local downward structure of August 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2802 Take profit: 1.2843

Buy: 1.2847 Take profit: 1.2910

Sell: 1.2727 Take profit: 1.2685

Sell: Take profit:analytics5b7238050ad8d.png

For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.0030, 1.0001, 0.9991, 0.9972, 0.9956, 0.9927, 0.9915, 0.9897 and 0.9878. Here, we follow the formation of the ascending structure of August 9. The continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9956. In this case, the target is 0.9972 and the breakdown of which, in turn, should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 0.9991 and in the corridor of 0.9991 - 1.0001 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.0030, from this level we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 0.9927 - 0.9917 and the breakdown of the last value will have to develop a downward structure. Here, the target is 0.9897. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.9878.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of August 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9956 Take profit: 0.9970

Buy: 0.9974 Take profit: 0.9990

Sell: 0.9925 Take profit: 0.9915

Sell: 0.9913 Take profit: 0.9898

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on a scale of H1 are: 111.55, 111.27, 111.10, 110.69, 110.31, 110.03 and 109.63. Here, the price has formed a small potential for the development of the upward movement of August 13 in the correction. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 110.96 - 111.19 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of an upward cycle. In this case, the target is 111.49. The potential value for the top is the level of 111.70, upon reaching which we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 110.52 - 110.32. Hence, there is a possibility of a turn up and the breakdown of the level of 110.32 will lead to the continuation of the downward trend. In this case, the target is 110.03. We consider the level of 109.43 as a potential value for the bottom, after which we expect consolidation in the corridor of 109.64 - 109.42.

The main trend is the downward structure from August 1, the formation of the potential for the top of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.96 Take profit: 111.16

Buy: 111.22 Take profit: 111.47

Sell: 110.50 Take profit: 110.34

Sell: 110.28 Take profit: 110.05

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For the Canadian Dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3258, 1.3232, 1.3190, 1.3160, 1.3117, 1.3098 and 1.3072. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of August 7. The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.3160 - 1.3190 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 1.3232, near this level is the consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3258, upon reaching which we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.3117 - 1.3098 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3072 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of August 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3160 Take profit: 1.3188

Buy: 1.3192 Take profit: 1.3230

Sell: 1.3117 Take profit: 1.3100

Sell: 1.3096 Take profit: 1.3072

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For the Australian Dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7373, 0.7338, 0.7310, 0.7260, 0.7236, 0.7173 and 0.7132. Here, we follow the formation of the downward structure of August 9. The continued downward movement is expected after the passage at the price of the noise range of 0.7260 - 0.7236. In this case, the target is 0.7173. The potential value for the downward movement is, for the time being, the level of 0.7132, after which we expect a pullback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 0.7310 - 0.7338 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7373 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from August 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7310 Take profit: 0.7336

Buy: 0.7339 Take profit: 0.7370

Sell: 0.7236 Take profit: 0.7175

Sell: 0.7170 Take profit: 0.7134

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For the EUR / JPY currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 128.04, 127.35, 126.69, 126.28, 125.48 and 124.82. Here, the price is in correction and forms a small potential for the top of August 13. A breakdown at the level of 125.48 will lead to a short-term downward movement. In this case, the potential target is 124.82, from this level there is a high probability of a turn up. The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 126.28 - 126.69 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth movement. Here, the target is 127.35 and this level is the key support for the downward structure from August 1. Its passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 128.04.

The main trend is a downward structure from August 1, we expect a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 126.28 Take profit: 126.67

Buy: 126.71 Take profit: 127.33

Sell: 125.46 Take profit: 124.87

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 143.33, 142.81, 141.98, 141.49, 140.52 and 139.78. Here, the price is in correction and forms a small potential for the top of August 13. The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 140.52 - 139.78 and from the level of 139.78, we expect a key turn to the top. The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 141.49 - 141.98 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 142.81 and the range of 142.81 - 143.33 is the key support for the downward cycle. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the top to be formalized.

The main trend is the downward trend from August 1, we expect a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.50 Take profit: 141.95

Buy: 142.00 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 140.50 Take profit: 139.85

Sell: Take profit:

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The daily review of EUR / USD as of August 13, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

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EUR / USD

The players on the decline confirmed their desire to continue the decline. Supports noted earlier on 1.1508-15 (minimum extremum + weekly Senkou Span B) and 1.1447 (monthly Kijun) were left behind. As a result, they are now acting as resistance. The nearest guide for the bears in this situation is the area of 1.1215 - 1.1186 (historical level + monthly Fibo Kijun), then the interests will move to the landmarks of the weekly goal for the breakdown of the cloud.

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The downward trend is now in priority. The goals of the junior timeframes have been worked out for a long time, the levels of the older time intervals now serve as a downward reference. In the case of the development of an upward correction, the resistance H1 (1.1410-20) will enter the work first, then the important level is 1.1447 (Tenkan N4 + monthly Kijun), but the most important accumulation of resistances is now concentrated around 1.1510-30 (Fibo Kijun H4 + cloud H1 + levels of the senior half-times). The fastening above 1.1530 will change the balance of power not only in the lower half periods, but will also return the daily short-term advantage to the players for promotion.

Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for August 13. The pair continues to adhere to the working version

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Friday, the EUR / USD currency pair lost another 120 percentage points. Thus, the conclusion suggests that the construction of the assumed wave 3, 5, continues. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 161.8% of Fibonacci mark can lead to the completion of this wave construction and the transition to the construction of a corrective wave 4. A successful attempt will allow for a further decline in quotations with targets located about 200.0% and 261.8% of Fibonacci, built on the size of wave 4 of the downward trend section.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1363 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

1.1272 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.1125 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1834 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.1957 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build wave 3, 5, of the downtrend section of the trend. Therefore, I recommend continuing to sell with targets near the estimated marks of 1.1363 and 1.1272, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% of Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break one of these marks can lead to the withdrawal of quotations from the minimum reached.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 14, 2018

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Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed for a bearish breakout of the depicted consolidation range (0.7170 and 0.7350).

A quick decline took place towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily. However, lack of bullish momentum allowed evident bearish decline to occur.

The bulls have failed to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700. This allowed the current decline to occur towards 0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

On the other hand, conservative traders can wait for bullish pullback towards 0.6700-0.6720 for a low-risk SELL entry.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 14, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range (1.2200).

The price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair is testing the price zone of 1.1450-1.1370 (demand zone) where bullish rejection may be anticipated. This zone corresponds to the depicted trend lines.

For a further decline to occur, the pair needs obvious bearish breakdown below 1.1400. Initial bearish target would be located around 1.1275 then 1.1120 if enough bearish pressure is applied.

Hence, the EUR/USD short-term outlook remains bearish towards the mentioned levels unless bullish breakout above 1.1520 is achieved. This would bring the bullish scenario into consideration.

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GBP / USD pair for August 13. Results of the day. Demand for pound sterling is still missing

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 93p - 50p - 106p - 92p - 114p.

The average is for 91p (82p).

There was no correction on pound sterling, even if the European currency began to adjust against the background of profit-taking by traders. Shorts for the pound continue to be held by market participants amid expectations of a further decline of this currency. One of the main factors of not believing traders in the pound is the political crisis faced by the Foggy Albion. The likelihood of a "no deal" with the EU grows every day, and the two main negotiators for Brexit from the UK have left their posts. Now everything is in the hands of Theresa May, but it was she who had already announced the preparation of the option with the absence of a "deal" on Brexit with the EU. Thus, given the weak macroeconomic indicators of the country in the first half of the year, there are simply no grounds for buying the British pound. The maximum that a currency can count on is a technical correction, but, as we see, it is not now either. Tomorrow in the UK, reports will be published concerning the level of unemployment, applications for unemployment benefits and changes in average wages, followed by the inflation which is scheduled the day after tomorrow.

However, even now we can assume that the special support for the pound, these data will not have. Thus, only the conclusion of a deal with the European Union on Brexit or the mitigation of protectionism by Donald Trump can save the English currency.

So far, there is no reason to expect either the first or the second. However, even now we can assume that the special support for the pound, these data will not have. Thus, only the conclusion of a deal with the European Union on Brexit or the mitigation of protectionism by Donald Trump can save the English currency.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair tries to start an upward correction. Thus, now it is possible to fix profit on previously opened shorts and yet be ready for a correction. To reject it is not recommended since it can be extremely weak and even lateral.

Orders for sale can be opened to support levels of 1.2690 and 1.2657 after the correction is completed. In this case, the bears rush into battle with new forces, and the current lows will most likely be updated.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for August 14, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that Bitcoin is in the upward corrective phase but it is going on slow tempo, which is a sign that buyers don't have enough power for larger upward correction. The trend is downward and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntiies if you see a breakout of the support trendline. The downward target is set at the price of $5.709.

Support/Resistance

$6.115 – Intraday resistance

$5.838– Intraday support

$5.709 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for August 14, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,194.75. The price is trading below the pivot level ($1.199.27), which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a potential bearish flag in creation, which is a sign that downward trend may resume. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if you see a valid breakout of the lower diagonal. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,185.20 and at the price of $1,177.25.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,207.30

R2: $1,221.45

R3: $1,229.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,185.10

S2: $1,177.10

S3: $1,162.92

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for August 14, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2826. According to the M15 time – frame, I found a trap up move after the average Earnings Index 3m/y came 2.4%. I also found a rejection of resistance 2 at the price of 1.2823 and rejection of the upper diagonal (resistance), which is a sign that buyers got exhausted. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2704 and at the price of 1.2675.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2796

R2: 1.2823

R3: 1.2857

Support levels:

S1: 1.2735

S2: 1.2700

S3: 1.2675

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 14, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.9857.

The USD/CHF pair is still set above the pivot point of the price 0.9857. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci and 61.8%). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set it at the level of 1.0050.

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EUR/USD. 13 августа. Итоги дня. Долгожданная коррекция. На повестке дня санкции против Турции

4-hour timeframe

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 41p - 57p - 55p - 94p - 148p.

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The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 79n (60p).

Once again, there is no important macroeconomic report published in the euro area or the United States. These reports, which traders still do not pay attention to, are not needed. On Monday, August 13, the long-awaited correction of the European currency against the US dollar began. However already now many experts consider that the euro will continue to fall. This time, the reason could be the introduction of duties on imports of steel and aluminum from Turkey to the States. The Turkish lira has already lost more than 11% against the US currency. And since the Turkish economy is strongly connected with the banking sector in Europe, there is every reason to believe that a financial crisis in Europe may break out, which will affect Europe. Thus, taking into account new developments, we would like to note once again that the talks around the possible tightening of the ECB monetary policy, can soon come to nothing. Recall that the head of the ECB reported on maintaining the key rate until the summer of 2019, and the quantitative incentive program should end in late 2018. However, these plans may not be implemented now. Everything will depend on how the trade war with Turkey will affect the euro area, which just sighed calmly, having found a compromise with Donald Trump. Thus, in the coming days, the Euro-currency may resume its decline.

One of the key factors in the growth of the US dollar is also the desire of traders to invest precisely in this currency on the background of the fact that it is the US that introduces trade sanctions against whom it can, which is interpreted as the strength of Trump, the country, and the economy. The head of the ECB reported on maintaining the key rate until the summer of 2019, and the quantitative incentive program should end in late 2018. However, these plans may not be implemented. Everything will depend on how the trade war with Turkey will affect the euro area, which just sighed calmly, having found a compromise with Donald Trump. Thus, in the coming days, the Euro-currency may resume its decline.

Trading recommendations:

On the EUR / USD pair, an upward correction began. Thus, small lots can be bargained for 1.1500, but this should be done very carefully. Turning the MACD indicator down can signal the completion of the correction.

It is recommended to consider short positions after the completion of the current correction with a target level of 1.1344. The completion of the correction can be determined by turning the MACD down or by rebounding the price from the critical Kijun-sen line.

In addition to the technical aspect, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 14, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to trade downwards from the level of 1.3094. This week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3169 to the bottom around 1.2974 then set around the spot of 1.3080. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3094 followed by 1.3132, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2974. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3094 and 1.2974; for that, we expect a range of 120 pips (1.3094 - 1.2974). If the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the minor resistance level of 1.3094 , the market will decline further to 1.3048. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.2974 with a view to testing the daily major support. However, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.3094, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for August 14, 2018

USD/CAD had been quite volatile until it breached above 1.3050 with a daily close. The price is currently retracing to retest the resistance as support. USD has been quite impulsive with the recent gains which lead CAD to lose some grounds in the process despite better-than-expected economic reports.

Recently, Canada's Employment Change report was published with a significant increase to 54.1k from the previous figure of 31.8k which was expected to decrease to 17.0k and Unemployment Rate also decreased to 5.8% from the previous value of 6.0% which was expected to be at 5.9%. The positive economic report helped CAD to strengthen for a certain period but CAD could not extend it further. This week on Thursday, Canada's Manufacturing Sales report is going to be published which previously was at 1.4% and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report which previously was at -10.5k. Both economic reports are expected to reveal positive results. Moreover, on Friday, CAD CPI report is going to be published which previously was at 0.1% and this time a certain increase is expected as well.

On the other hand, today US NFIB Small Business Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease marginally to 106.9 from the previous figure of 107.2 and Import Price is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.4%. Additionally, tomorrow US Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% and Core Retail Sales is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%.

Meanwhile, certain volatility is expected in this pair as high impact economic reports from both Canada and the US are due in the coming days of the week. If CAD performs well with the economic reports, then further bearish momentum will go on in this pair. Otherwise, USD has higher chances to advance in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical chart. As the price broke above 1.3050 area with a daily close, the previous momentum below 1.3050 is currently being assumed as false break momentum. Currently, the price is going to retrace towards 1.3050 area for a retest before pushing higher towards 1.3300 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.2950 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 1.3050, 1.2950

RESISTANCE: 1.3300

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for August 14, 2018

GBP/USD has been quite non-volatile with the bearish trend earlier which has led the price to reside below 1.2850 support area with a daily close. Ahead of the GBP and USD high impact economic reports this week, certain volatility is expected in this pair for the coming days.

Today GBP Average Earning Index report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 2.5%, Claimant Count Change is expected to have a positive impact with a decrease to 2.3k from the previous figure of 7.8k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%. Moreover, tomorrow GBP CPI report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 2.5% from the previous value of 2.4%. Though there are still some questions about how BREXIT is going to play out but having certain tensions in the process, better economic reports are expected to boost the GBP gains in the future.

On the USD side, today NFIB Small Business Index report is going to be published which is expected to slightly decrease to 106.9 from the previous figure of 107.2 and Import Price is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.4% in the process. Additionally, tomorrow USD Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% and Core Retail Sales is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%.

As of the current scenario, the acceleration of US economy this year is expected to slow down in 2019 whereas other major economies are expected to dominate US in several ways. Before that currently ahead of the UK high impact economic reports, USD forecasts are quite dovish and expected to inject certain volatility and bullish pressure in the process before the bearish trend continues to push lower.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bullish as residing below 1.2850 area which is expected to be retested before the price continues to push lower with target towards 1.2550 in the coming days. The trend is non-volatile and expected to push the price impulsively after certain bullish retracement in the process. As the price remains below 1.30 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.2550

RESISTANCE: 1.2850, 1.30

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 14/08/2018

Monday was a day for catching a breath after the shock that the lira dropped in the markets. Lack of macroeconomic data allowed to focus on Turkey and developing countries. Today, for this we are dealing with a calendar filled with important publications. The global investors have already got familiar with some of the weaker data from China, and now are waiting for Europe to enter the stage.

At 4:00 am China published a portion of macroeconomic data, which in most cases did not meet market expectations. Industrial production in annual terms increased by 6% instead of forecasted 6.3%, ie as much as recently. Retail sales also turned out to be slightly below the market consensus, and they increased by 8.8% year on year (9.1% expected).

The People's Bank of China only slightly weakened the yuan. The reference rate was moved from 6.8629 to 6.8695. The central bank is still talking about the relatively high liquidity of the banking system. The Chinese currency is at the level where it was last May.

On Tuesday, the 14th of August, the event calendar is quite busy in important data releases. The UK will post Claimant Count Change data, Germany will present GDP, CPI and ZEW data, the same with Eurozone. No important date from the US today.

EUR/USD analysis for 14/08/2018:

The German GDP reading for the second quarter fell slightly above the market consensus: 0.5% q/q against expected 0.4%. In annual terms, the increase was 2.3%, instead of the forecasted 2.5 %. As a result, EUR / USD fired 0.1 % up to 1.1410.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a new local low at the level of 1.1365 and now is trying to bounce higher. The nearest resistance is seen at the level of 1.1434 and breaks through this resistance would indicate a return to the channel. Please notice the oversold market conditions that support the short-term correction possibility on this market. The key level is still at 1.1509 - 1.1529 zone.

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Bitcoin analysis for 14/08/2018

Kenneth A. Blanco, director of the American Network for the Enforcement of Financial Crimes (FinCEN), revealed that the agency has seen a sharp increase in reports on suspicious activities related to cryptography (SAR). According to him, the number of complaints currently exceeds 1500 per month.

The director presented the current role of FinCEN in the field of regulation and law enforcement for emerging cryptography, which he coordinates together with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the American Commerce Futures Commission (CFTC). He noted that: "Although innovation in financial services can be a great thing, we must also be aware that financial crimes are evolving along with it, and sometimes because of it, creating opportunities for criminals, including terrorists and rogue states".

According to the FinCEN guidelines of March 2013, any acceptance or transfer of value that replaces a fiat currency - including cryptographic - is considered a money transmission and entails specific regulatory obligations under the Banking Secrets Act (BSA).

As money transfer companies (MSB), cryptographic exchanges are therefore required to report both SAR and currency transaction reports (CTRs), as well as to abide by the AML rules and counteracting the terrorist financing framework (CFT).

Blanco explained that the same obligations apply to companies that provide anonymization services - often referred to as "mixers" - that try to hide the source of cryptocurrency. Stock exchanges are also monitored by an agency outside of the United States, but nevertheless, they do business with the inhabitants of the country. The director gave an example of FinCEN action from 2017 against the Russian BTC-e cryptographic exchange, which broke the law of AML. This is the case in which SAR played a key role. Banks and other information exchanges are a key role as they are key tips for law enforcement.

According to Blanco, FinCEN, BSA, and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) examiners have already examined over 30 percent of all registered cryptocurrencies and administrators since 2014.

Blanco has devoted even more attention to the coin initial offer (ICO), stressing that although they may be subject to the overlapping jurisdictions of various US regulatory agencies, their AML / CFT obligations remain absolute.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the technical support at the level of $5,959 and made a new local low at $5,837. This might be the end of the wave (v) of the whole downward sequence as the price is in divergence against the momentum. The next technical support at the level of $5,728 is the key level. The nearest important technical resistance is seen at the level of $6,597.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 14, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as ZEW Economic Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Flash GDP q/q, French Final CPI m/m, German Final CPI m/m, and German Prelim GDP q/q. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Import Prices m/m and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1457.

Strong Resistance:1.1450.

Original Resistance: 1.1439.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1428.

Target Inner Area: 1.1401.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1374.

Original Support: 1.1363.

Strong Support: 1.1352.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1345.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 14, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Import Prices m/m and NFIB Small Business Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.36.

Resistance. 2: 111.14.

Resistance. 1: 110.93.

Support. 1: 110.66.

Support. 2: 110.45.

Support. 3: 110.23.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 14, 2018

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We are looking for red wave ii to complete in the 1.7196 - 1.7258 target-zone. Once this correction is complete a new impulsive rally to above 1.7487 is expected for a continuation higher to 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next upside important upside targets.

Short-term only a break above minor resistance at 1.7356 will indicate that a corrective low has been seen for red wave ii and red wave iii is taking over for a rally to above 1.7487.

R3: 1.7487

R2: 1.7417

R1: 1.7355

Pivot: 1.7322

S1: 1.7258

S2: 1.7226

S3: 1.7196

Trading recommendation:

We will re-buy EUR at 1.7245 or upon a break above 1.7356.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 14, 2018

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We have seen the expected rally from 125.23. The question now is whether it's able to correct all the way to 127.30 before turning lower to just below 125.23 to complete wave ii or the minor correction in wave iv/ already has completed at 126.78 for the final dip?

We do prefer a little more upside closer to 127.30 before wave iv/ peaks and starts turning lower in wave v/. The potential downside should be limited and the maximum is 124.59 anything below here will force a recount.

R3: 127.30

R2: 126.78

R1: 126.61

Pivot: 126.35

S1: 125.94

S2; 125.46

S3: 125.12

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 126.25 with our stop placed at 124.50. We will take half profit at 127.25 and wait for an opportunity to re-buy EUR at 125.15.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 14, 2018

EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend. Price has broken below the critical 1.15 May lows and as the expected price is moving towards 1.13. We are bearish since the rejections and triangle pattern at the 1.1730-1.1760 area. The inability to break above resistance eventually lead to the break below support.

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Blue line - long-term resistance

Red line - medium-term resistance (previous support)

The EUR/USD is trying to bounce above 1.14. We could see a back test of the broken red trend line support at 1.15 which is now important resistance. Not shown above, but the Daily RSI is giving bullish divergence signs. Big short-term resistance is found at 1.15-1.1520. So a daily close above this area could signal a bigger bounce and a fake break down. Otherwise we expect a move lower towards 1.12.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for August 14, 2018

The Gold price broke below the short-term consolidation range and below short-term support of $1,205 and has reached our first target area of $1,193. The price is diverging in RSI terms in the Daily chart. The trend remains bearish as the price is well below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators.

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Black lines - wedge pattern

Blue line - bullish divergence

In the Daily chart, the Gold price is giving bullish divergence signs. The price got rejected at the upper wedge pattern boundary and combined with a break below $1,205, we had another short-term sell signal pointing below $1,200. The Gold price could continue lower towards $1,180. Key resistance is now at $1,217 to consider a bigger bounce towards $1,265.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The pound went down

Despite the increase in the REPO rate to 0.75% in the monetary policy normalization cycle and the acceleration of the British economy from 0.2% in the first quarter to 0.4% q/q in the second quarter, the sterling is the worst performer among the G10 currencies in the previous three months. Its losses against the US dollar exceed 5%, and the GBP/USD pair went to the 13-month low. What is it? Have factors such as improved health in the national economy and monetary tightening ceased to work?

The reasons for the weakness of the pound should be sought in an unfavorable political background. Both official London and ordinary consumers are increasingly talking about the prospects of divorce from the EU without a deal. The Minister of International Trade of Great Britain Fox said that the probability of such a scenario is 60%, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney said that the chances are "unpleasantly high", and Prime Minister Theresa May said that it will activate preparations for such an outcome. Unsurprisingly, Google's queries from Britain have reached peak levels.

Google search query dynamics

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Additional pressure on sterling creates Morgan Stanley's recommendations to its customers to insure the risks of the UK leaving the EU without a deal. As a result, the difference between the premium on options to buy and sell the pound (reversal risks) has reached its lowest level since February 2017.

Dynamics of the pound reversal risks

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The unfavorable political climate has an impact on business activity and economic growth, so it is not surprising that the talk about the lack of an agreement with Brussels has forced some investors to talk about the possibility of reducing the REPO rate in 2019. Everything will depend on macroeconomic statistics on the UK, so a week full of important releases by August 17 may be decisive for it. The publication of reports on the labor market and inflation, together with data on retail sales will clarify the prospects of the sterling. However, as is known, in any pair there are always two currencies, therefore, one should not discount the factor of a confident US dollar inflow, of course, should not be discarded.

The "greenback" reaps the fruits of Donald Trump's protectionist policy. The constant threats of import duties and the expansion of import duties contribute to the fall of purchasing managers ' indices and to the slowdown of the world's largest economies in the face of the Eurozone and China. At the same time, US GDP, emboldened by the large-scale stimulus, rises to 4.1% q/q in the second quarter. The dollar benefits not only from the different speeds of the economy, but also from the process of capital flight to safe haven assets. In this regard, the problems weighed down by the sanctions of Turkey and Russia have an impact not only on the EUR/USD, but also on the GBP/USD.

Technically, the "bears" on the analyzed pair managed to storm the important support at 1.2835 and continue the downward campaign in the direction of 78.6% and 88.6% of the last long-term upward wave.

GBP/USD daily chart

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USD / CAD: very soon the Canadian will remember the problem of NAFTA

The Canadian dollar came under the influence of the overall situation in the foreign exchange market. Discussion of the prospects for this or that currency pair now largely comes down to one issue that has a very distant relationship with trading - whether Turkey will release the American pastor or not. Positions of protective instruments and high-risk assets depend on the resolution of this issue. Today, the market has information that Ankara has decided to release Branson from prison on August 15 - that is, on the day when, according to rumors, the deadline for the US ultimatum to Turkey expires. And although the news is unconfirmed, traders reacted quite sharply - the European currency strengthened throughout the market, the yen began to surrender, and gold pushed off annual lows.

The Canadian currency has also suspended its decline, but in this case it should be extra cautious - even if the general fundamental background in the foreign exchange market changes (in the context of Turkish actions), the Canadian will remain under pressure from other, "personal" problems of a fundamental nature. And it's not just the uncertain dynamics of the oil market: the main risk is now related to the prospects for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

This week, negotiations should be resumed in a trilateral format - at least this was announced last Saturday by the Canadian ambassador to the United States. In early August, a bilateral meeting was held in Washington between representatives of the American and Mexican sides. This fact troubled traders, as rumors began circulating on the market that Canada wants to be excluded from the negotiation process altogether. But these rumors have not been confirmed yet: both Mexico and Canada are still "in the game", although it is impossible to speak with firm confidence until the beginning of the next round of talks.

Here, it is worth noting that on the eve of the trilateral talks, Donald Trump again "raised the stakes," and heated the already tense situation. He was outraged that Canada continues to keep its tariffs "at high levels," while maintaining trade barriers. He also warned that if Canadians fail the next NAFTA negotiations, then the States will invest Canada with import duties on cars. It should be noted that Trump has long been scaring Canadians with these duties. According to most experts, such a move would be a tangible blow to the Canadian economy. The fact is that the car industry of this country mainly consists of car assembly factories of a number of auto giants, such as Toyota, Honda, and Ford in particular, and exports to the United States is more than 70% of cars produced in the country for about 50 billion dollars. Therefore, if the US president realizes his plans, the consequences for Canada can be very serious, up to the recession of the economy.

This "farewell" to Donald Trump says that Canadians generally have two options: either to make concessions and largely agree to the conditions of Americans, or to prepare for the introduction of the above fees. Notably, amid constant criticism of Canada, Trump warmly began to treat Mexico, or rather, the new president of this country. Even on Saturday, voicing threats about duties, he called his Mexican colleague an "absolute gentleman." In other words, if the parties fail to reach agreement in a trilateral format, Trump will most likely leave the NAFTA in late autumn (after the midterm elections in Congress) and will renegotiate the free trade agreement with Mexico.

This fact will provide background pressure on the Canadian dollar. In addition, we must not forget that Canada has spoiled relations with Saudi Arabia, and this political conflict has not yet been exhausted. Moreover, the Canadians were left without public support, even from the closest allies. Riyadh, in turn, allows for the possibility of increasing economic pressure on Ottawa.

Thus, the uncertain prospects for NAFTA and the political conflict with Saudi Arabia have leveled off the positive effect of the success of the Canadian economy. Significant strengthening of the labor market amid a good dynamics of inflation growth allows the Bank of Canada to further tighten the terms of monetary policy, but external fundamental factors may adversely affect the resolve of the regulator's members.

In the coming days it will become clear whether Canada will return to the NAFTA negotiating table or take a different position. Depending on this decision, the vector of movement of the Canadian currency will be determined. Therefore, the current downward movement of the USD/CAD pair looks unreliable, because now the market is focused only on Turkey. As soon as the discharge in this matter follows, traders will switch to NAFTA's question, whose prospects still look foggy.

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Particular care should be taken when approaching the USD/CAD. The level of 1.3050 is the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1, which coincides with the Tenkan-sen line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. Fixing below this target bear pairs will not be easy. Therefore, in this price area, bulls can seize the initiative, especially if the uncertainty surrounding the participation of Canadians in the negotiation process for NAFTA will continue.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 13/08/2018

The organization associating heads of human resources departments in British companies informed on Monday that the decrease in the number of migrants coming to the UK with the EU caused by next year's Brexit, deepened the problems of employers with finding appropriate employees.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) report emphasizes that the demand for new employees exceeds the number of people available on the market, and employers increasingly choose to increase their employees' remuneration, creating incentives for staying in their current workplace. According to the calculations, there are currently 20 people per one job not requiring professional qualifications, four less than a year earlier, and for positions for people with higher education - only six instead of eight, which limits the choice of the right candidate. At the same time, up to two-thirds of employers reported that they had problems filling certain jobs.

CIPD remarked that the growing problems in the labor market are directly related to the reduced interest in working in Great Britain on the part of migrants from the other 27 Member States of the European Union in the face of next year's Brexit. During the year from March 2017 to March 2018, the number of employees from the European Union residing in the country increased by only 7,000. people, in comparison with the increase by as much as 148 thousand. people a year earlier.

The United Kingdom should leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. According to the transitional agreement, all existing rules, including those concerning the free movement of people, will be in force until December 31, 2020.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is still trading inside the range between the levels of 1.2733 - 1.2793 in extremly oversold market conditions. In order for bulls to control the market again, the price would have to break through the level of 1.2956.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 13/08/2018

In the statement released this morning, the Turkish monetary authorities have announced the announcement of several activities that have one goal - to calm the situation around the domestic banking system and restore confidence in the lira. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announced, among others, providing the liquidity needed by commercial banks, changing the security requirements deposited with the central bank and preferential terms for entering into repo transactions.

In addition, the reserve requirement criteria have been reduced - this means that commercial banks will be able to use part of the funds that were previously "frozen" at the central bank. The central bank estimates that its decision will release 10 billion liras, 6 billion dollars and the equivalent of 3 billion stored in gold (in Turkey, commercial banks could declare some of their mandatory reserves in gold, in which they are an important player on the local market).

In addition, the Turkish central bank undertook to mediate in currency operations concluded by commercial banks and announced that the limit of foreign currency deposits in the amount of USD 50 billion may be increased: "The central bank will closely monitor the market situation and price developments. All necessary measures will be taken to ensure financial stability" - we read in the statement. However, what is important, the central bank of Turkey has not decided to raise interest rates. This fact can be associated with the unorthodox approach of Erdogan himself to this issue - in recent months, the Turkish monetary authorities have "raised rates so that the president would not see it".

President Erdogan, who spoke in Ankara, said that in his opinion "Turkey was the victim of a conspiracy," but his country "will not give up and will not lose the economic war." The Turkish leader also announced that "the exchange rate will return to economic fundamentals". The Turkish leader again threatened the United States, announcing that if the tension on the Washington-Ankara line is not alleviated, then "Turkey will look for new markets, new partners and new allies."

Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the daily time frame. The central bank's message came to the market in the first hours of Monday trading, when the Turkish lira was still much shaky. It's enough to say that the new week started with the USD/TRY rate above 7.00 - for comparison, on Friday morning one dollar cost just over 5 liras. In the following hours the situation remained dynamic, the rate temporarily fell below 6.50 TRY, then turn back towards seven and again go down to 6.65.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com