Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for November 19, 2015

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Overview

A sharp rise in GBP/JPY and a breakout of resistance at 188.28 invalidated our bearish view. Rebound from 180.36 is resuming and intraday bias is back on the upside. A further rally towards resistance at 195.86 would be seen again. In case of retreat, we will stay cautiously bullish as long as support at 185.98 holds. The breach of the medium-term trend-line support is taken as a sign of trend reversal. This is supported by bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. Also, GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the psychological level of 200. A breakout of 174.86 will confirm trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we will be cautious on strong resistance from 199.80/200.00, which can finally bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.59; (P) 187.92; (R1) 188.58;

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Technical analysis of Gold for November 19, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is pulling back from $1,080.00 trading around $1,072.00 at the moment. The yellow metal actually needs to breakout above the trend line and take out the level of $1,098.00 to confirm that a counter-trend rally is underway. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now. Immediate support is seen at $1,063.00 (interim) followed by $1,050.00, $1,030.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,098.00 and higher. The overall trend remains bearish until that and it would be too early to get long at the moment.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for November 19, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver managed to hold the level of $14.00. The metal should be looking for a counter-trend rally towards $14.60 and $15.00. As we can see here, the metal is just looking to break out of its resistance trend line. Immediate support seems to be coming in around $14.10 followed by $14.00, while resistance is seen at $14.50 followed by $15.00 and higher respectively. It is recommended to remain long on positions taken earlier with stop at $14.00, but refrain taking fresh longs.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop at $14.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 19, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair prints yet another high at 1.5570 today. It is suggested to remain flat until a confirmation for a pullback is received. The pair needs to break below its immediate line of support and also take out the 1.5400 levels, which is immediate support. Rallies after that can be sold for further correction towards the 1.5000 levels. It is recommended to remain flat for now. Immediate support is seen at the 1.5400 levels followed by 1.5250 and lower, while resistance interim remains around the 1.5570 levels for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 19, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is setting up for a corrective rally towards 133.30 and higher while the 130.60 lows remain intact. The pair is just breaking out of a resistance line at the moment and a push above 132.30 could be extremely encouraging for bulls. It is hence recommended to remain long and look to add ahead of 131.00 lows, risk remains at 130.60. Immediate support is seen at the 131.00 levels followed by 130.60, while resistance is seen at 133.20/30 and higher. Bulls seem to be looking to remain in control for now. Only a break below 130.60 would be of concern.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at 130.60, target is 133.30

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 19, 2014

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Overview:

  • The resistance of the EUR/USD pair was broken and it turned to support around the area of 0.6461 this week. Thus, the pair has already formed strong support at 0.6470. Besides, the weekly pivot point is going to be set at the same level today. But a minor support will be set at the level of 0.6494. Moreover, it could not close below 0.6494 (23.6% Fibonacci retracements levels) and started indicating a bullish market. Additionally, the price has been placed above 23.6% Fibonacci since yesterday. Furthermore, the price has been still trading between 50% Fibonacci retracement levels and 23.6%. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.6494/0.6461 on the H1 chart with the first target at 0.6445 and continues towards 0.6467. On the other hand, if the price closes below the minor support, the best location for placing a stop loss should be below 0.6492. So, the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.6429 to test it again.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 19, 2014

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Overview:

  • The price of the GBP/USD pair has been not stable because the trend has been moving downwards from the price of 1.5320 on the H4 chart. Additionally, according to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD has still been moving between 1.5180 and 1.5320. Furthermore, the resistance has already been set at the price of 1.5320 and the support is placed at 1.5180 (minor support). Moreover, the level of 1.5180 represents the weekly pivot point. The weekly pivot point (the price of 1.5111 has coincided with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels). As a result, the GBP/USD pair is likely to start showing the signs of the bearish market at the level of 1.5320 because the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.5300/1.5320, so the level will be acting as a strong resistance today. In other words, it will be a good decision to sell below the price of 1.5300/1.5320 with the first target of 1.5180 in order to try to close below the weekly pivot point. It will call for the downtrend to continue its bearish movement towards 1.5102 to form the strong support on the H4 chart. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed above 1.5356.
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Global macro overview for 19/11/2015

Global macro overview for 19/11/2015:

The recent data regarding retails sales from the UK has been released earlier today. A surprising surge in sales in September was expected to be followed by a small decline last month of 0.4% (4.5% y/y), but the market declined to the level of 0.6% (3.8% y/y). Nevertheless, the current data is not anything unusual as the consumer spending remains strong in the UK If the trend remain intact, retail sales should be 4.2% higher than a year earlier with core sales up 3.9%.

Amid the recent new local high, the GBP/USD pair is still trading under the golden trend line. The next resistance is seen at the level of 1.5295 and support comes at the level of 1.5153.

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Global macro overview for 19/11/2015

Global macro overview for 19/11/2015:

The review of the FOMC meeting minutes revealed yesterday:

- policy members are leaving all options open for the December meeting;

- policy members agreed to gradually remove accommodative monetary policy;

- the majority says the December rate hike is correct and there is no major shock to the US employment and economic progress

- global risks are decreased

- only one dissident: Jeffrey Lacker

The FOMC minutes did not virtually bring anything new as the old rhetoric is still being used. Nevertheless, the December rate hike is still on the table.

The EUR/USD pair has broken above the golden trend line and is trading higher after the FOMC minutes. The next resistance is seen at the level of 1.0718 and the support is still at the level of 1.0666.

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EUR/NZD : analysis for November 19, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.6343 in a high volume. I am waiting for larger activity and stronger price actions. The short-term trend is still neutral. The level of 1.6350 has few trend lines, which suggested good support at this stage. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD before a breakout of the key support level takes place. In the the daily time frame, we can see a weak demand bar in an average volume. A high-volume breakout at the level of 1.6590 will confirm further upward movements. I found a point of control from yesterday (high volume area) around the levels of 1.6460-1.6500. I had placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1.6860, Fibonacci retracement 50% at the level of 1.7080 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.7295. According to the M30, I found supportive nature of volume and intraday upward behavior. So, be careful when selling at this stage because we may see potential recovery in the euro. Anyway, strong support at 1.6150 may become strong resistance once it gets broken.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6530

R2: 1.6560

R3: 1.6620

Support levels:

S1: 1.6415

S2: 1.6380

S3: 1.6322

Trading recommendations: Selling looks risky at this stage, so watch for potential buying opportunities on an intraday basis. Selling opportunities are preferable only if the price breaks the level of 1.6150.

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Gold : analysis for November 19 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,078.97. According to the daily time frame, I found neutral bar in a high volume, which is a sign of indecision and sign for exhausted gold. Our strong support around the levels of $1,075.00-$1,080.00 became strong resistance (changing polarity) now. In the M5 time frame, I found trading range between the level of $1,075.50 and the level of $1,079.00. I would stay neutral on gold, but the short-term trend is still downward. So, watch for potential selling opportunities.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,071.90

R2: 1,073.80

R3: 1,076.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,065.85

S2: 1,064.00

S3: 1,061.80

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold since the price has broke our major support level. Watch for potential selling opporutnities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 19, 2015

EUR/USD: Despite the fact that it is consolidating, the EUR/USD pair remains weak in the market. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart; and thus, when a breakout does occur, it would most probably favor the bears. At the present, long trades look illogical in this market.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair is meandering its way upwards gradually. The bias is bullish, and the price is testing the resistance level at 1.0200, which is our target for this week. The resistance level could also be breached to the upside as the bullish sentiment continues to hold out in the market.

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GBP/USD: The cable has consolidated so far this week; with neither upward movement nor downwards movement. However, all this is happening in the context of a downtrend, and when a breakout occurs, it might favor the current bearish outlook.

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USD/JPY: This pair is still in a bullish mode. The price is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level pf 50, which means that there is a higher probability that the USD/JPY pair will move further upwards. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they could have some impact on the market.

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EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument has been moving in a bearish mode for some time, though the price is in a vivid equilibrium phase. The bearish outlook is, nevertheless, valid. As long as the euro continues to be weak, this cross would not find it easy to rally significantly. Another condition for a bullish reversal is a serious weakness in the yen.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 19, 2015

General overview for 19/11/2015 09:50 CET

In a larger time frame, the market is still trading inside a big horizontal corrective cycle range between the levels of 130.63 and 141.00. There is still unfinished wave Z of the complex corrective cycle in wave B blue. The projected target level for this wave is seen around the psychological level of 130.00.

Support/Resistance:

130.44 - WS1

131.48 - Intraday Support

131.81 - Weekly Pivot

132.20 - Intraday Resistance

132.36 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should close the buy orders from yesterday ( if they hadn't close them already) and wait for better trading setup to occur.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 19, 2015

General overview for 19/11/2015 09:30 CET

In a larger time frame, the wave development still might evolve into more complex structure like a triangle. The price has retraced wave 4 or A purple almost to the level of 88.6%Fibo at 1.3383, but please notice that the top for the wave B purple will be confirmed when prices violate the level of 1.3222. The other possible scenario is uncompleted wave B purple at current levels and further wave development into WXYXXZ complex corrective pattern.

Support/Resistance:

1.3375 - WR1

1.3368 - Intraday Resistance

1.3298 - Weekly Pivot

1.3266 - Intraday Support

1.3250 - WS1

1.3222 - Wave b Bottom

Trading recommendations:

Yesterday's sell orders had hit the TP level.

For today day traders should consider placing sell orders from current market levels with SL above the level of 1.3280 and TP at the level of 1.3222.

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USDX technical analysis for November 19, 2015

The US dollar index showed a short-term reversal sign yesterday by breaking out the short-term upward sloping channel. The US dollar has weakened a bit, but it holds important short-term support at 99 now.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Red lines - bearish divergence

The US dollar index is still trading above the Ichimoku cloud but has broken the bullish channel. The US dollar index however holds above the 99.10 support. Resistance is seen at 99.50 and next the recent high at 99.85.

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Red line - support 99.10

The US dollar index daily chart shows the important support level of 99.10. If it gets broken, we should expect a pullback towards at least 97. Stochastic is overbought and chances for bearish reversal are very high. Bulls should raise their stops to 99.10 and protect their profits.

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Gold technical analysis for November 19, 2015

Gold price remains in a long-term downtrend in the bearish market, but I believe we are very close to seeing a long-term bottom and a major bullish reversal in Gold. I expect gold prices to reach the area of $1,045 plus or minus $10, but we can easily start the reversal from current levels.

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Red line - resistance

Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price remains inside the bearish channel and below the Ichimoku cloud. The stochastic has turned upwards in the 4-hour chart, and this justifies the short-term bounce from $1,064 we are currently seeing. Resistance is seen at $1,082 and next at $1,100. Only a breakout above $1,100 will confirm a short-term trend change.

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The weekly chart remains bearish as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below both the tenkan- kijun-sen indicators. Weekly stochastic is entering the oversold area and we should be ready for a bullish reversal over the next two weeks that could push prices towards at least $1,130. Don't forget that Gold price is at the 50% retracement of a rise from 1999.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 19, 2015

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Wave summary:

A sideways consolidation between 1.61.24 and 1.6545 is becoming a never-ending and depressing story. We still continue to watch for a clear breakout above resistance at 1.6545, but they need to move soon in the face of the risk to turn lower for one final decline closer to 1.5882 to end the decline from 1.9114.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6360 with stop placed at 1.6280. Buy EUR closer to 1.6300 or upon a breakout above 1.6545 and use the same stop at 1.6280.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 19, 2015

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Wave summary:

A failure to accelerate lower and a breakout above 131.73 taken place overnight did not meet our expectation of a decline in wave wave (iii). The decline from 141.06 in early June is clearly corrective as a nice symmetrical triangle was seen as wave b. Triangles will only be seen in wave 4 or as corrective B waves or X waves. This was a corrective decline, but how it should unfold and is still unclear. However, the failure to accelerate lower indicates that the corrective decline from 141.06 has come to an end and now we have to see how the rally from a low of 130.64 unfolds. A small five wave rally can indicate that the correction from 141.06 has ended.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 131.65 was hit for a small but nice profit. We will stand aside for now to observe the rally of the 130.64 low.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 19, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic news on the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, and Current Account is due to be released. The US will release publish data on the Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0734.

Strong Resistance:1.0727.

Original Resistance: 1.0717.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0707.

Target Inner Area: 1.0682.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0657.

Original Support: 1.0647.

Strong Support: 1.0637.

Breakout sell level: 1.0630.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 19, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on results of the BOJ Press Conference, All Industries Activity m/m, Monetary Policy Statement, and Trade Balance. The US will unveil economic data om the Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 124.07.

Resistance. 2: 123.82.

Resistance. 1: 123.59.

Support. 1: 123.28.

Support. 2: 123.04.

Support. 3: 122.80.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 19, 2015

The US dollar index continues to trade below the resistance zone of 99.80, with no major moves after the FOMC minutes. The 200 SMA is in the H1 chart. However, the USDX is still focused on reaching new highs above the level of 100.00. By the way, if the index continues to trade inside the bullish bias in coming days, then it could rally towards the level of 100.25.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.80 / 100.25

H1 chart's support levels: 99.25 / 98.31

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 99.80, take profit is at 100.25, and stop loss is at 99.37.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 19, 2015

There is no major changes in the GBP/USD intraday chart after the FOMC minutes, which were released during Wednesday's session. The pair keeps moving inside a a range between the levels of 1.5296 and 1.5205, where the 200 SMA is located on the H1 chart. When the cable does a breakout below the level of 1.5205, then it could fall towards the zone of 1.5142. The MACD indicator keeps showing positive signs.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5296 / 1.5365

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5205 / 1.5142

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is found at 1.5205, take profit is at 1.5142, and stop loss is at 1.5270.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 18, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, the strong bullish pressure was applied at the resistance level of 1.5800 via the recent bullish swing.

Hence, the resistance level of 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Bulls moved towards 1.5900 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was confirmed.

Later, the support level of 1.5555 got breached by the end of September, due to the excessive bearish pressure, which originated at 1.5800.

The GBP/USD pair moved towards the support zone of 1.5170-1.5150 where a valid intraday buy entry was offered especially after the evident bullish rejection, which took place on October 6.

Conservative traders were advised to wait for a bullish pullback towards the level of 1.5480 for a low-risk sell entry.

Note that bearish persistence below the level of 1.5200 is needed for a further bearish decline towards the levels of 1.5000 (prominent weekly support).

A valid sell entry can be offered around the current levels (1.5200-1.5230). This can be confirmed when daily closure below 1.5180 is expressed before the end of the day.

On the other hand, a bullish breakout above the level of 1.5250 exposes next resistance levels around 1.5350 and 1.5450.

Price actions should be watched around 1.4980 where the lower limit of the depicted movement channel comes to meet the GBP/USD pair. This is where a valid buy entry can be offered. S/L should be located below 1.4900.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 18, 2015

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Overview:

A bullish breakout above the zone of 1.2770-1.2800 was observed on July 15 (highlighted in blue).

The long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270 (100% Fibonacci Expansion). However, bulls moved further above the resistance level, which was bypassed on September 23.

Significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450 where the 141.4% Fibonacci Expansion was roughly located.

Later on October 1, bearish persistence below 1.3270 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was expressed. This applied enough bearish pressure to expose the next support levels around 1.2910 and 1.2750 where long-term buy entries were suggested.

On October 23, daily closure above 1.3100 was achieved. Besides, this enhanced the bullish side of the market.

The level of 1.3270 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) got exposed shortly after USD/CAD bulls managed to push above the level of 1.3100.

On October 28, a valid sell entry was suggested around the level of 1.3270 (FE 100%). Target levels were located at 1.3075 and 1.2930.

A bearish breakout below the support level at 1.3075 was mandatory to allow further bearish decline towards 1.2930. However, an evident bullish rejection was expressed around this level.

Another bullish visit towards the level of 1.3270 (FE 100%) was executed two weeks ago. A temporary bullish breakout above 1.3300 is currently taking place.

Hence, price reaction should be watched around the level of 1.3330 on a daily basis, as daily persistence above 1.3350 directly exposes the next resistance level of 1.3450, which corresponds to Fibonacci Expansion 141.0%.

Trading recommendations:

Traders should wait for either more bullish correction towards 1.3450 (FE 141.0%) or an obvious bearish closure below 1.3250 (FE 100%) to sell the USD/CAD pair.

S/L should be placed above entry levels. T/P levels should be placed at 1.3190 and 1.3080.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 18, 2015

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area of 1.5900, which has been providing the GBP/USD pair with significant resistance.

Recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing candles, closing below the level of 1.5220 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern).

This supports the bearish side of the market in the long term. An approximate target should be located at the level of 1.4800 for this reversal pattern.

The previous demand level at 1.5200 (the origin of a previous bullish engulfing weekly candlestick) was broken down two weeks ago after it had provided significant bullish demand for the GBP/USD pair.

Hence, the price zone of 1.5200-1.5230 constitutes a significant supply zone to be watched for price reactions (more details on the daily chart).

The next demand level to meet the GBP/USD pair is located at 1.4950 (weekly demand level) if bearish persistence below 1.5200 is maintained on a weekly basis.

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The previous bearish movement found its way towards the level of 1.5200 (prominent demand level), which prevented further bearish decline.

Instead of it, evident bullish reaction was performed around 1.5200-1.5170 (resulting in bullish engulfing daily candlesticks).

This led to the previous bullish pullback towards 1.5600 (the backside of the depicted uptrend). It placed the GBP/USD pair under significant bearish pressure.

The demand levels of 1.5350 and 1.5200 were broken down last week. Currently, these levels constitute prominent supply to be watched for new sell entries. The level of 1.5200 is being revisited today.

Note that bearish persistence below 1.5200 is mandatory to allow a further bearish decline towards the next demand levels at 1.5090, 1.5025, and 1.4950.

On the other hand, a daily breakout above the supply level of 1.5220 enhances the bullish side of the market towards 1.5350.

Trading Recommendation:

Risky traders can sell the GBP/USD pair around 1.5220 (the current supply level). S/L can be placed above 1.5250.

On the other hand, a low-risk buy entry will probably be offered around the weekly demand levels at 1.5000-1.4950.

S/L should be placed below 1.4920. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.5170 and 1.5300.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 18, 2015

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The EUR/USD pair moved lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (July, August, September and October) reflected recent bearish rejection, which took place at the level of 1.1450.

Hence, in the long term, a projected target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0555 occurs before the end of the current month.

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On August 24, the market looked overbought as bulls were pushing the pair further beyond the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Recently, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish rejection. An intraday sell entry was suggested. T/P levels located at 1.1150 and 1.1050 were already reached.

A bearish breakdown of the depicted uptrend has been executed on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets projected at 1.0800 and 1.0600.

Two weeks ago, daily persistence below the level of 1.0990 exposed the next demand level around 1.0850 where prominent bottoms were previously established in May, July, and August.

This week, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (Recent Supply Level) is needed to maintain enough bearish momentum towards 1.0650 and 1.0530 (prominent monthly low).

A valid sell entry can be offered around the level of 1.0850 if bullish correction extends above 1.0700 (Friday's lowest price level).

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.0700 (depicted key level) allows further bearish decline towards the next demand level of 1.0600.

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