Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 22, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Economist, financial commentator and gold supporter Peter Schiff has once again "bit" Bitcoin in a tweet, basically calling him a fiat currency, such as the US dollar, thus supporting the Fed's position.

"The Fed is right about Bitcoin. It categorizes it according to fiat, as opposed to gold, which has real value. It sees nothing new in Bitcoin, only in the way it is exchanged. As you lose confidence in both traditional money and cryptocurrencies, savers will return to gold. " - he wrote on Twitter.

Liberty Street Economics, a blog run by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies are simply cash in another form, not "a new type of money," according to the cryptographic industry. The article indicates the difference between money itself and the way people make transactions or use them.

"The ability to make electronic exchanges without a trusted entity - a characteristic of Bitcoin - is completely new. Bitcoin is not a new class of money, it is a new type of exchange mechanism, and this type of mechanism can support various forms of money as well as other types of assets." - we read in the entry.

After many comments on the subject, Peter Schiff became known in the cryptographic space as someone who takes up the topic every day, in his opinion the superiority of gold over cryptography. In April 2020, the economist also predicted a sharp rise in gold prices and a sharp decline in the value of Bitcoins in the coming years. In March, he also called "fools" investing in Bitcoins.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has retraced the majority of the last wave up and is currently trading around the level of $9,381, which is a technical resistance for the price. There is almost no jump in momentum during the recent bounce as the RSI indicator is still hovering around the level of fifty, so this is a neutral level for momentum. The key technical resistance is seen at the level of $9,704 and the key technical support is located at the level of $8,8858. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,274

WR2 - $9,895

WR1 - $9,583

Weekly Pivot - $9,212

WS1 - $8,912

WS2 - $8,511

WS3 - $8,252

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.


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Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on June 22, 2020

Hello, dear traders!

Following the results of trading last week, the British pound became the leader among all major currencies that fell in price against the US dollar. In the last five days of trading, the pound/dollar currency pair declined by 1.43%. The main influence on the downward dynamics of the British currency was the results of the Bank of England meeting. Let me remind you that the British Central Bank kept the key rate at 0.10%, but increased the asset purchase program (QE) from 645 to 745 billion pounds. Although the decision of the Bank of England coincided with the expectations of market participants, investors considered it too soft and started selling the "British". On the last trading day of last week, the decline in the pound/dollar pair continued, and as a result, the pair ended trading on June 15-19 at the level of 1.2344.

Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the rather difficult and slow recovery of the world's leading economy after COVID-19. Let me remind you that the United States has become one of the most affected countries by the coronavirus, which has caused about 119,000 deaths. Naturally, in this situation, we had to introduce several restrictive measures that caused quite serious damage to the American economy. However, as the head of the Fed said, the latest data on employment and consumer spending look encouraging. Once again, I would like to draw your attention to the large-scale assistance for three trillion dollars that the US Congress has allocated for economic recovery.



As you can see, the last week ended with the formation of a bearish candle with a long upper shadow. It is worth noting that the trading was quite volatile. At first, the pound strengthened quite strongly, reaching 1.2686. However, after that, the ardor of the bulls for the pound finally dried up, and they rather weakly gave the reins of the market for GBP/USD to their opponents.

As a result, the pair came close to the support level of 1.2222, the breakdown of which will open the way to the next marks: 1.2300, 1.2200, and 1.2160. A true breakout of the last level will send the pair to the May lows near 1.2070.

If the price zone of 1.2325-1.2300 can contain the pressure of sellers and turn the course up, and the final closing price of weekly trading will be above the Tenkan line (1.2442), the bears will have to wait with their plans until better times.



If we go to the technical picture that appears on the pound/dollar currency pair on the daily chart, it has acquired even more obvious bearish outlines. Following the breakdown of the 89 exponential moving average and the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, last week the quote fell below the 50 simple moving average, and trading closed under the important technical level of 1.2400. Moreover, the closing of the last five-day period took place within the cloud of the Ichimoku indicator, which makes the most likely subsequent movement to its lower border, which passes at 1.2305. Fixing the rate below 1.2300 will only confirm the strength of the bears in the pound and determine the next goals in the area of 1.2200-1.2160.

Conclusion and trading recommendations for GBP/USD:

Given the fears of the second wave of COVID-19, which strengthens the demand for the US dollar, the gradual recovery of the US economy, as well as the technical picture for this currency pair, the most relevant trading idea for the pound/dollar pair is sales.

I recommend that you take a closer look at opening short positions on the pound/dollar pair after rising to the price zone of 1.2400-1.2440. At the same time, the confirmation signal for opening sales for the pound will be characteristic candle signals that will appear in the selected zone on the daily, four-hour, and hourly timeframes.

Good luck!

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 22, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Eight technology companies from seven different emerging economies will receive the investment tool for cryptocurrency Ethereum from the crypto fund UNICEF.

The investment tool with UNICEF cryptography support has donated 125 ETH, worth approximately $ 28,600, to these companies for use in scaling or prototyping relevant technologies over the next six months. The companies that are covered by this program have already received $ 100,000 in fiat currency from the UNICEF innovation fund.

One such company, Afinidata, offers educational content for parents with young children. Another, Cireha, builds communication systems for children with speech or language impairments for use in the offline world. They are largely charitable, and UNICEF gives them impetus to use cryptocurrency to continue this mission.

"We see that the digital world is reaching us faster than we could have imagined - and UNICEF must be able to use all the tools of this new world to help children today and tomorrow."

- said Chris Fabian, co-founder of UNICEF Ventures in a statement, adding:

The transfer of these funds - to eight companies in seven countries around the world - took less than 20 minutes and cost us less than $ 20. An almost immediate global shift in value, fees less than 0.00009% of the total amount transferred, and real-time transparency for our donors and supporters are the types of tools we enjoy.

Because UNICEF is a United Nations organization that protects the welfare of children around the world, it also works for a better future. As the organization distributes money to technology companies around the world, it's worth noting that blockchain technology seems to match its future plans.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair is testing the nearest technical resistance seen at the level of $235.42 after the bounce from the technical support located at the level of $225.84.Despite the bounce, Ethereum is still locked inside of a narrow zone located between those two levels and might spend some time inside of this zone, just like it does two weeks ago. There is no big spike in momentum as well, which is another indication of lack of the strength in the bills camp. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $257.09

WR2 - $246.02

WR1 - $2437.53

Weekly Pivot - $227.45

WS1 - $218.65

WS2 - $207.59

WS3 - $198.98

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.


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Overview and forecast for EUR/USD on June 22, 2020

Hello, traders!

Last week, the US dollar was the undisputed favorite in the Forex market. The US currency strengthened against all major competitors, except for the Japanese yen. In particular, the main currency pair EUR/USD lost 0.60% in trading on June 15-19.

The US dollar received additional demand amid fears of a second wave of COVID-19. As we remember, during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, it was "American" that was in demand by market participants as a safe asset. By the way, in their notes to clients, most analytical departments of the world's largest commercial banks predict a strengthening of the US dollar, at least in the medium term. It is a possible scenario, however, I would not make such far-reaching forecasts. The situation can change at any time, and the exchange rate of the US currency depends on many factors, such as the next steps in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). It is likely that soon the Federal Reserve will decide to combine the yield of US Treasury government bonds with the level of inflation. This combination will help reduce the potential risks associated with a new COVID-19 outbreak. But how this might affect the US dollar is still an open question.

If you look at the economic calendar, this week market participants will have to digest a large stream of macroeconomic statistics. For the most part, it will come from the US, and among other things, we can highlight the final data on GDP for the first quarter, orders for durable goods, personal spending and income of Americans, as well as the index of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. From European statistics, it is worth paying attention only to similar indices.

Today, a large flow of macroeconomic information is expected, except that investors may be interested in US data on housing sales in the secondary market, which will be published at 15:00 (London).



Turning to technical analysis of major currency pairs market Forex, let's start with the results of the last week, namely the consideration of the relevant period.

As expected last Monday, the highlighted candle, made in the form of a "shooting star" model, will most likely serve as a signal for a further decline in the quote At the end of the last five days of trading, this assumption was justified as the fact that the news is not going down without a fight and will attempt to resume the rise. This is confirmed by the long upper shadow of the last candle.

And now for the actual closing of the week. First, they closed within the cloud of the Ichimoku indicator, which in itself implies a consolidation within it, followed by a potential decline to the lower border of the cloud, which passes at 1.1107. Secondly, the week closed under the most important level of 1.1200, which for a long time served as a support and prevented further decline. In the previous review for EUR/USD, it was emphasized that closing the week above 1.1300 will indicate the return of large buyers, and the end of the five-day trading period under 1.1200 will further indicate the bearish prospects for the instrument. We have what we have.



Also, in Friday's article on this currency pair, attempts to exit up from the downward channel were assumed, which, as it seemed, would turn out to be false. It was recommended to consider sales on attempts to break the channel's resistance line from the used moving averages (50 MA, 89 EMA, and 200 EMA), which were located above the resistance line. It is gratifying that this option was also correct and worked out.

Conclusion and trading recommendations for EUR/USD:

Given the candlestick patterns on the weekly timeframe, as well as the closing price of the last candle, there is every reason to believe that the downward scenario will continue. At the same time, we can not exclude the activity of buyers who will try to regain control of the market.

Nevertheless, the main trading idea is to sell EUR/USD after rising to the levels of 1.1220, 1.1235, and 1.1250. In this case, the targets can be considered 1.1125, 1.1110, and 1.1100. If signals for purchases appear near these levels, those who wish can try to buy eur / usd, but so far it is better with small goals, in the area of 1.1200. The pair may circle this important mark for some time.

Good luck!

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on June 22, 2020

Although the macroeconomic calendar on Friday was almost empty, we observed a further gradual weakening of the single European currency. Although at first she even tried to recoup some of its losses from previous days. But all these attempts were completed as soon as the representatives of the Federal Reserve began to speak, who, as if by agreement, spoke about the same thing. But apart from Jerome Powell, there were two more representatives of the Fed, and from all of them they expected at least some hints of the possibility of lowering the refinancing rate. But their statements were no different from those statements that were made immediately following the results of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. That is, the rate increase should not be expected until 2022, but not a word about the reduction. And this can only be interpreted as if the Fed somehow softens the monetary policy, then it will do it only through quantitative easing. That is, no negative interest rates are expected in the United States. And frankly, this is a serious argument in favor of the dollar.


Nevertheless, in recent years, the dollar has strengthened quite well, and, according to the logic of things, it would be worth it to at least weaken a little. And the reason for this could be today's data on home sales in the secondary market of the United States. They are expected to decline by another 2.0%. At the same time, they also steadily declined in the last two months, and as much as 17.8% in the previous month. If you look at the absolute numbers, then sales should decrease from 4,33,000 to 4,200,000 It is no less interesting that just recently they predicted an increase of 1.6%. So the forecasts were revised in a negative direction. In any case, against the background of a local overbought dollar, a further decline in sales could be a sufficient reason for a slight correction. Let it be symbolic. However, do not forget that sales forecasts have just been revised literally, which means there is a possibility, albeit small, that the data will turn out to be somewhat different. If they show growth, the dollar may continue to strengthen. Although it will be extremely insignificant. Just because of the overbought dollar. But it is worth noting that the probability of this is extremely small. After all, the level of delays in mortgages in the United States has reached a record level, which was last seen in 2011. And it was then that the record high for delays was recorded. And it's clear that some sales growth looks fantastic against this background. So, most likely, the forecast will justify just the decline in sales.

Secondary Home Sales (United States):


From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a high speculative boom, during which the quote was able not only to form a corrective move, but to enter the phase of partial recovery, returning market participants to the level of 1.1180. It is worth noting that the recovery process relative to the inertia of May 15 is only 39%, which isn't really much, and the quote is still at a conditional peak.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, the daily period, one can see similarities with the dynamics of fluctuations on March 10, where the area where trading forces interact at 1.1440/1.1500 put pressure on market participants.

It can be assumed that against the background of local oversold, an upward spiral may occur, which will lead to developing the level of 1.1180 as a variable support. This movement considers a temporary regrouping of trading forces in the direction of values 1.1240-1.1250.

An alternative scenario will emerge in the event of a slowdown relative to the existing values, where in case of price taking lower than 1.1165, the path to 1.1100-1.1080 will open.

We specify all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider buying positions higher than 1.1210, with the prospect of a move to 1.1240-1.1250.

- We consider selling positions lower than 1.1165, with the prospect of a move to 1.1100-1.1080.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments relative to the hour and day periods signal a sale due to a rapid downward movement and price taking within the range of 1.1180. Minute intervals signal a variable upward interest due to the pullback process.


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Trading recommendations for GBP/USD pair on June 22

From the point of view of complex analysis, you can see a strong downward movement, meaning that our forecasts coincided, let's talk about the details.

Last trading week managed to not only consolidate the success of the correctional move from the range level of 1.2770, but also return the market participants to the previous range of fluctuations of 1.2150 // 1.2350 // 1.2620. This turn has destroyed the dreams of followers of upward development, because the transition to a new range of fluctuations [1.2150//1.2350//1.2620 ---> 1.2770//1.3000//1.3300] postponed indefinitely.

Before a detailed analysis of the Friday trading day, you should pay attention to the dynamics and inertial activity of the last three weeks. We mentioned earlier in reviews that the intensity of the current movement is directly related to speculative activity, and this is a signal of instability, and it can lead to a rapid change in market sentiment. The upward inertial move of May 26 already indicated speculative activity, where after reaching the range of 1.2770, we presented the theory of a possible reversal, which arose on the market later. The speculative mood, without undue labor, changed the direction where our tactics of local operations were at their best again, having an impressive profit on a trade deposit.

Let's return to Friday's trading day, which shows that the variable stagnation in the area of 1.2400/1.1450 was broken in a downward direction, where market participants managed to regroup trading forces. And as a result, price consolidation was obtained below the average level of 1.2350 for a four-hour period, which is a good signal for further progress.

Regarding the theory of market development, the emphasis is still on speculative activity, which returned the quote to its original range [1.2150 // 1.2350 // 1.2620], but leaving a mention that everything can change quickly. In any case, our task is local operations, and if the hype has a downward slope, then there is still a chance of decline to the border of 1.2150.

In terms of volatility, dynamics is consolidated just below the average daily norm [-11%], but an activity indicator above 100 points automatically assigns the status of speculative excitement and is beneficial for volatility.

As discussed in the previous review, traders expected a further downward move in case the price consolidates below 1.2400, thus the position at the ready.

The trading recommendation from Friday regarding short positions coincided 100%, having an increase in the trade deposit.

[Sell positions are considered if the price consolidates below 1.2400, with the prospect of a move to 1.2350.]

Considering the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), it is worth noting that the most similar development of the range level of 1.2770 was on June 25, 2019, where a downward spiral appeared, which led the quote to a psychological value of 1.2000. The existing movement has a rate of change of course almost twice as high, and overheating of short positions may come soon. Based on the laws of the past, the average level of 1.2350 could perfectly play the role of regrouping trade forces.

The news background on Friday had data on retail sales in Britain, which managed to surprise investors. So, the data for May showed sales growth of 12% with a forecast of 5.7%, but such positive statistical data is most likely associated with a gradual weakening of quarantine measures in this period. In annual terms, retail sales continue to be in the negative zone of -13.1%.

The pound sterling was not helped by the revival of retail sales, it continued to decline.

In terms of the general informational background, we are increasingly seeing bad signals from the UK economy, which was going through hard times even before the coronavirus pandemic, and with quarantine measures, it even began to bend. According to the National Statistical Office [ONS], the UK public debt has exceeded GDP for the first time in half a century. The amount of debt in May reached 1.9 trillion pounds, which means that it grew by 173.2 billion pounds for the year.

At the same time, no one has forgotten about the Brexit divorce process, which, although it has moved from the dead point, is still in the balance and causes fear for investors, who, according to statistics, have all fled to the Netherlands.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we only have data on sales in the secondary housing market of the United States for May, where a decline of -3.0% is expected, but there is a significant improvement compared to the period before.


Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we can partially see the recovery from the inertial course of the past week, where the quote rebounds from the average level of 1.2350. In fact, this may be a regrouping of trading forces, during which profit is fixed from short positions and thereby the risks for the subsequent movement are balanced.

In terms of the emotional mood of the market, you can see that the speculative mood is still on the wave, which means that volatility will continue to be at a high level.

It can be assumed that during the regrouping of trading forces, the quote will be able to return to the area of 1.2450, but traders will not complete the downward development strategy. If the price consolidates below the level of 1.2330, the downward movement will resume towards the lower boundary of the variable range 1.2150 // 1.2350 // 1.2620.

At the same time, if the process of regrouping trade forces is delayed, then we can see the time amplitude within the range of 1.2350 / 1.2500.

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- Consider buy deals in the direction of 1.2450.

- Consider sell deals in case of price consolidation below the level of 1.2330, with the prospect of a movement to 1.2250-1.2150.


Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that the indicators of technical instruments on hourly and daily periods signal a sale due to the rapid downward trend of the past week. Minute intervals signal a purchase due to the process of rebound from the average level.


Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(June 22 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 55 points, which is still within normal limits for the start of trading. It can be assumed that as Europeans enter the market, acceleration will occur, which will lead to a further increase in volatility.


Key levels

Resistance Zones: 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2885 *; 1.3000; 1.3170 **; 1.3300 **; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **.

Support Zones: 1.2350 **; 1.2250; 1.2150 **; 1.2000 *** (1.1957); 1.1850; 1.1660; 1.1450 (1.1411); 1.1300; 1.1000; 1.0800; 1.0500; 1.0000.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level

**** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment

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Only positive economic data for the 2nd quarter can change the mood of investors in the markets (local growth of EUR/USD

The week ended with the flag of worsening tensions on the Korean Peninsula, an outbreak of coronavirus infection in Beijing, and the non-decreasing COVID-19 pandemic in America.

Tensions have clearly increased in the markets due to geopolitical tensions between North Korean and South Korea, which again demonstrated to investors the fragility of the peace established in this region. In addition, fears in the world are caused by the not decreasing coronavirus pandemic infection in the States amid social protests and political confrontation between D. Trump and his opponents from the Democratic Party. And the news of the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Chinese capital reminded of the WHO's promised likelihood of a second wave of pandemics closer to autumn.

All this fully reflected on the demand for risky assets in the financial markets. Stock markets in the wake of the uncertainty of what the global economy expects, nervously jump up and down in the near future. Demand for defensive assets rose again during the week.

The US dollar ended the week in different directions. Despite its weakness due to the large-scale stimulus measures that have revived its function as a funding currency, it has not only managed to maintain its previous positions, but also to grow against all currencies except the Japanese and Swiss, which are in demand during periods of instability and increased financial risks.

Despite the fact that the dollar potentially remains an extremely weak currency due to its wide supply in the financial system and the revived function of the funding currency, it is likely that it will retain its previously won positions in the currency market this week, unless, of course, some important and really strong positive news, for example, about the beginning of the recession of the pandemic in America or the news about a really real test of a new anti coronavirus vaccine.

Generally, evaluating the likely development of events, we believe that the mood of the market can radically improve only after the first reporting data on the economies of countries important to the world for the second quarter of this year have been received. The absence of worse news from the battle front against COVID-19 and more encouraging quarterly reporting may serve as a basis for renewed demand for risky assets and a weakening dollar, yen and franc.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair remains in a short-term downward trend amid weak demand from investors for risky assets. The pair is likely to rise to 1.1235 before rushing to the level of 1.1140 again.

The AUD/USD pair is consolidating in the range 0.6800-0.6955. Amid the recovery of the Chinese stock market and the positive dynamics of futures for US stock indices, the pair has every chance to grow to the level of 0.6955.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for June 22, 2020


EUR/GBP has rallied as ex[ected and has cleared resistance at 0.9025 indicating much more upside pressure towards 0.9499 in the weeks ahead. Nevertheless, it will not be in a straight line and therefore, we must accept short-term corrections and in the short-term we could see a dip to 0.9007 before the next advance towards 0.9184, 0.9275, and to 0.9499 and above.

R3: 0.9134

R2: 0.9090

S1: 0.9060

Pivot: 0.9038

S1: 0.9025

S2: 0.9007

S3: 0.8988

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8760 and we will raise our stop to 0.8910

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 22, 2020


The decline from 124.43 has reached a new low at 119.31. The deeper than expected corrective drop from 124.43 has once again forced us to review our count from wave (E) at 114.40. The rally from 114.40 to 124.43 can be counted as a complete impulsive rally (five waves). This rally does fulfill all requirements, so we have decided that this count now is our preferred count. Under this count, the correction in wave 2 now has met the 50% corrective target at 119.41, and at the same time, we see a clear positive divergence from the RSI indicating a possible low now can be in place. If this is the case, then EUR/JPY may break above minor resistance at 120.21 soon.

This, however also means, that as long as minor resistance at 120.21 is able to cap the upside, the risk remains lower, but the positive divergence will work in our favor and limit the potential downside.

R3: 121.23

R2: 120.53

R1: 120.21

Pivot: 119.70

S1: 119.31

S2: 119.10

S3: 118.91

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 119.95 and we will keep our stop at 118.95

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GBP/CHF to test 1.1837, June 22, 2020


On the 4-hour chart, we can see the divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3). GBP/CHF may test the 1.1837 level as its first target and 1.1954 as its the second target. This scenario is likely to occur If this pair does not sink and close bellow the 1.1744 level.


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GBP/NZD to reach its Upward Bearish Order Block level at 1.9333: Analysis For June 22, 2020


The GBP/NZD pair is trying to test the Bearish Order Block at 1.9333 according to the 4-hour chart before the price goes down to raid the SELL Side Liquidity Pool at 1.9193. This is confirmed by the Technical view from the Stochastic Oscillator making a Divergence between the price. Based on this fact, there is a high probability for this pair to reach the Bearish Order Block level and maybe the Moving Average as long as the price does not go up higher than 1.9397.

The overall bias for GBP/NZD now is bearish.


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Fractal analysis of main currency pairs on June 22nd

Forecast for June 22:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:


The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1276, 1.1238, 1.1212, 1.1168, 1.1136, 1.1103, 1.1062 and 1.1035. Here, we continue to monitor the local descending structure of June 16. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1168 - 1.1136. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a movement to the level of 1.1103. Price consolidation is near this level. We expect a pronounced downward movement after the breakdown of the level of 1.1101. In this case, the target is 1.1062. The level of 1.1035 is considered to be the potential value for the bottom. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching this level.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1212 - 1.1238. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 1.1276. This is the key support level for the bottom.

The main trend is the local descending structure of June 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1212 Take profit: 1.1237

Buy: 1.1239 Take profit: 1.1276

Sell: 1.1168 Take profit: 1.1137

Sell: 1.1134 Take profit: 1.1104


The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2563, 1.2479, 1.2419, 1.2345, 1.2281, 1.2184 and 1.2130. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 10th. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2345 - 1.2281. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2184. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2130. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2419 - 1.2479. The breakdown of the last level will lead to deeper correction. In this case, the potential target is 1.2563.

The main trend is the descending structure of June 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2420 Take profit: 1.2477

Buy: 1.2481 Take profit: 1.2560

Sell: 1.2345 Take profit: 1.2283

Sell: 1.2280 Take profit: 1.2186


The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9687, 0.9618, 0.9561, 0.9488, 0.9462, 0.9416 and 0.9373. Here, the price forms expressed initial conditions for the top of June 11th. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9561. In this case, the target is 0.9618. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9618 will lead to a pronounced movement to the potential target - 0.9687. We expect a downward pullback from this level.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9488 - 0.9462. The breakdown of the last level will lead to deeper movement. Here, the target is 0.9416. This is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 11

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9561 Take profit: 0.9615

Buy : 0.9620 Take profit: 0.9685

Sell: 0.9488 Take profit: 0.9464

Sell: 0.9460 Take profit: 0.9418


The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 108.39, 108.15, 107.67, 107.34, 106.64, 106.07, 105.78 and 105.08. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of June 5th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.64. In this case, the target is 106.07. A short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 106.07 - 105.78. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 105.08. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range 107.34 - 107.67. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 108.15. We expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed before the noise range of 108.15 - 108.39.

The main trend: the downward cycle of June 5, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.35 Take profit: 107.66

Buy : 107.69 Take profit: 108.15

Sell: 106.64 Take profit: 106.07

Sell: 105.76 Take profit: 105.10


The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3967, 1.3889, 1.3779, 1.3737, 1.3683, 1.3560, 1.3510 and 1.3452. Here, we are following the ascending structure of June 10th. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3683. In this case, the target is 1.3737. Price consolidation is near this level. The price passing the noise range of 1.3737 - 1.3779 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3889. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3967. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching this level.

A consolidated movement is possible in the range of 1.3560 - 1.3510. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 1.3452. This is a key support level for the top and its breakdown will allow you to count on movement to the level of 1.3371.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3683 Take profit: 1.3737

Buy : 1.3780 Take profit: 1.3888

Sell: 1.3508 Take profit: 1.3452

Sell: 1.3450 Take profit: 1.3371


The key levels for the Australian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7052, 0.6990, 0.6941, 0.6849, 0.6789, 0.6741, 0.6705. 0.6613 and 0.6549. Here, the price is in correction from the downward structure on June 10th. The resumption of the downward trend is possible after the breakdown of the level of 0.6849. Here, the first goal is 0.6789. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to rely on the movement to 0.6741. The price passing the noise range 0.6741 - 0.6705 will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6613. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.6549. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching which.

We expect a short-term upward movement in the range of 0.6941 - 0.6990. The breakdown of the level of 0.6990 will lead to the cancellation of the downward trend. In this case, the first target is 0.7052.

The main trend is the descending structure of June 10, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6941 Take profit: 0.6988

Buy: 0.6992 Take profit: 0.7050

Sell : 0.6849 Take profit : 0.6790

Sell: 0.6787 Take profit: 0.6741


The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 120.69, 120.22, 119.94, 119.37, 118.96 and 118.39. Here, we are following the development of the local downward cycle of June 16. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 119.37. In this case, the target is 118.96. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 118.39. We expect a pullback upward upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 119.94 - 120.22. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 120.69. This level is the key support for the downward structure from June 16.

The main trend is the local descending structure of June 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.94 Take profit: 120.20

Buy: 120.24 Take profit: 120.69

Sell: 119.37 Take profit: 118.98

Sell: 118.94 Take profit: 118.40


The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 134.56, 133.70, 133.23, 132.43, 131.71, 131.30 and 130.44. Here, we continue to monitor the local descending structure of June 16th. A short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are expected in the range of 132.43 - 131.71. The price passing the noise range 131.71 - 131.30 will lead to a movement to potential target 130.44. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 133.23 - 133.70. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 134.56. This is the key support level for the downward structure from June 16.

The main trend is the local descending structure of June 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.23 Take profit: 133.70

Buy: 133.75 Take profit: 134.56

Sell: 132.40 Take profit: 131.73

Sell: 131.30 Take profit: 130.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Coronavirus, tensions in Asia and Powell: dollar growth may be temporary

The dollar index soared during the end of the trading week, amid general nervousness in the financial markets and increased anti-risk sentiment. The US currency was in demand, although there was no specific reason for avoiding risks - a combination of negative factors played its role. However, after reaching an almost three-week high of 97.660, dollar bulls already retreated - during the Asian session on Monday, the greenback began to gradually lose its position, reflecting the fading of the upward impulse.


This impulse was primarily due to two factors. Firstly, the coronavirus, and secondly, the escalation of conflicts on the Sino-Indian border and on the Korean peninsula. Such fundamental ingredients provoked a surge in anti-risk sentiment. The risk of the second wave of the epidemic is still the number one topic in the world press. Although the situation is gradually improving in Europe, countries such as the United States, Brazil, South Africa and India continue to give alarming signals. Even those countries that formally defeated the epidemic have announced new outbreaks. In particular, South Korea reported nearly fifty new cases of the disease, half of which occurred in Seoul. Twenty five new cases have been recorded in China, most of them also in the capital, Beijing. Both countries have introduced stringent measures to contain the virus, as new outbreaks emerged after easing restrictions. After a three-week pause, Covid-19 reappeared in New Zealand. Several US states reported a record number of infected per day at the end of last week.

Nevertheless, in the context of the foreign exchange market, this fundamental factor over the weekend weakened its influence. This is partly due to the speech of US President Donald Trump, who made it clear that the White House is not going to re-quarantine the country. He linked the growth of identified Covid-19 patients with an increase in the pace of testing Americans for coronavirus. At the same time, according to him, many people did not even realize that they were carriers of the virus, since they had no symptoms. Trump even called for a slowdown in the testing of Americans ("fewer tests - less coronavirus"), but later the White house noted that the president was being ironic. But this position of the head of state eliminated the concern that the United States will decide to re-lockdown. In this regard, the market shows a peculiar cynicism, as traders are not concerned with the increase in the number of cases by themselves, but with the economic consequences of the pandemic.

As for the conflicts on the Sino-Indian border and on the Korean Peninsula, the situation over the past weekend has not worsened. India and China are preparing to sit at the negotiating table - according to some sources, Russia will act as a mediator, and according to other sources, the United States. At the same time, New Delhi and Beijing have already taken certain "friendly steps." India released the Chinese soldiers detained during the conflict in Ladakh, after which China released the Indians. Although the parties accuse each other of violating the agreements reached earlier, they clearly intend to resolve the situation through diplomatic means.

But the situation is clearly more complicated with the Korean Peninsula. Although here (so far) the worst-case scenario, which involves an open military confrontation, has not been realized. North Korea decided to wage an "agitation war" with its southern neighbor. Publishers and printing houses in Pyongyang have printed 12 million propaganda leaflets for distribution in South Korea. Let me remind you that the leaflets with balloons that the South Korean activists distributed in the territory of the DPRK were the direct cause of the escalation of the conflict between the countries. Kim Yo jong, sister of the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un, warned that Pyongyang could use force against the south if Seoul does not stop such a practice. But, as we see, so far Pyongyang has decided to apply only mirror propaganda measures, and this fact has reduced the general degree of intensity.


It is also worth noting that the US dollar grew at the end of last week thanks to Jerome Powell. The head of the Federal Reserve appealed to congressmen with a request to allocate additional funds as part of the anti-crisis program during his speeches. Moreover, Powell personally signed a letter from 150 economists (among whom are his predecessors as the Fed chairman), in which they asked members of Congress to allocate money to stimulate the economy as soon as possible. Let me remind you that the House of Representatives, controlled by the Democrats, has already passed the corresponding bill - but the Republicans and the White House have criticized this document quite severely. This means that the law with a high degree of probability will not be approved by the Senate, and, accordingly, will not be signed by Trump. And although the US treasury secretary announced a new package of economic assistance the week before last, so far things have not gone further than words. Given the proximity of the presidential election, such bills should be viewed through the prism of the election campaigns of Trump and Biden. Therefore, many experts doubt that the above letter, signed by Powell in particular, will speed up the process of approval of this issue.

Thus, the downward dynamics of the dollar index is now fully justified: those fundamental factors that pushed the currency up have now lost (or weakened) their influence. Speaking directly about the euro-dollar pair, here the bulls need to overcome the 1.1215 mark (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). In this case, it will be possible to consider long positions to the next resistance level - to around 1.1290 (Tenkan-sen line on the same timeframe).

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 22, 2020


Last Friday, buyers of the dollar managed to restrain the onslaught of the euro bulls and keep the single currency in a downward local trend of the last ten days. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart has penetrated the territory of the bears, now it is easier for the market trend to reach the target along the embedded line of the price channel of 1.1115. Overcoming this support opens the second target of 1.1010.


The four-hour chart shows that the euro's growth in the first half of the day was restrained by the balance indicator line, that is, the growth occurred in the framework of the general decreasing trend, which strengthens this trend itself. Now in the struggle of the local trend with convergence, the Marlin oscillator has a higher chance of winning the trend. We are waiting for the price at 1.1115.


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USDCAD reversing below ascending trendline/channel resistance!


Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.36023

Reason for Entry: Market price

Take Profit: 1.35591

Reason for Take Profit: 100% Fibonacci extension, ascending trendline support (channel support)

Stop Loss: 1.36303

Reason for Stop Loss: 88% Fibonacci extension, ascending trendline resistance (channel resistance)

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EUR/USD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop!


Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.12354

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance, 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension

Take Profit: 1.10263

Reason for Take Profit: 161.8% fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.12760

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 22, 2020


The British pound overcame support for the balance indicator line (red) on the daily chart last Friday. This is a sign of the British currency's mood to work out the nearest technical goal, now it is the range between the MACD indicator line and the Fibonacci level of 161.8% - 1.2185-1.2235.


However, the convergence on the Marlin oscillator has almost formed on the four-hour chart, so before the decline continues, a correction to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.2424 is likely.


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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 22, 2020


The Australian dollar made another attempt to break through the resistance of 0.6900 last Friday. The aussie quickly went down, having made sure of its strength. The Marlin oscillator has moved to its lower half - to the declining trend zone. The nearest target at 0.6680 will be achieved soon. Overcoming the level opens the second target of 0.6570.


The signal line of the Marlin oscillator also penetrated into the zone of negative values on the four-hour chart. The price is lower than both indicator lines - the balance and MACD line. The trend is completely decreasing.


The gap at the opening of a new week is closed, we are waiting for a visual price reversal - forming a closed black candle.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 22, 2020


European stock indexes grew in vain on Friday, which prevented the yen from continuing to strengthen. The stock market has grown since the US session opened, some European indices managed to close in the red zone, and the US market (S&P 500) lost 0.56%. The yen strengthened (decreased on the chart) by ten points.


The technical situation for the yen has not changed, we are also waiting for prices to fall to the first target on 105.90. Overcoming the support of the price channel line opens the second target of 105.40.


The price is kept below the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves along the border separating the growth and fall trends, that is, it is led from quotes at the moment. We are waiting for the price to move towards the designated target.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 22. COT report. Bears continue to lead the market. Almost no



The pound/dollar continues its downward movement as if nothing had happened. Quotes of the pair continue to move strictly inside the descending channel, closer to its bottom line. The bears crossed the support area of 1.2402-1.2422 with relative ease last Friday, so the upward correction did not start, and buyers did not get a chance to take the pair to the upper line of the channel. Thus, in general, the British currency continues a more logical, from our point of view, decline after two weeks of growth. We expect a decrease to the support level of 1.2268 in the next day or two. This level can hold back the gusts of bears for a while and allow the pair to adjust slightly. Although usually, when the pound begins to fall, it is a long and powerful process. In general, buyers now continue to relax and wait for their chances, which will appear no earlier than the release of the pound/dollar pair from the downward channel.



Both linear regression channels are still directed downward on the 15-minute timeframe, so the pair continues to show its willingness to continue moving down and the absence of signs of a correction.

COT Report


The latest COT report, which covers the dates June 10-16, shows that during this period of time, professional market players were busy closing sales contracts. In other words, the picture during the reporting week was exactly the same as for the euro. Neither the pound or the euro grew in demand during the indicated period, due to which these currencies became more expensive. On the contrary, demand for the dollar decreased, traders closed sell contracts, which led to the growth of European currencies. This is precisely what we told traders to focus their attention on earlier, since there were simply no special reasons to buy the euro and the pound in recent weeks. Nevertheless, both currencies went up very vigorously, and now, as they say, repay debts. It is also worth noting that speculators also closed purchase contracts, hedgers closed both types of contracts during the reporting week, and in general, the pound lost around 32,000 more contracts. Thus, banks, large companies, investment funds and others were engaged in the closing of, rather than the opening of, contracts during the reporting week. Based on this, we believe that the US dollar has excellent chances for further growth.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair continues to be more negative. Brexit and the agreement between Brussels and London regarding the continued coexistence of the bloc and the United Kingdom, when the "transition period" will end, remains the number one topic for the British currency. There is no positive news on this topic. Moreover, we don't even receive any ordinary macroeconomic statistics from the UK. There are no important and interesting messages from Prime Minister Boris Johnson or even the UK Parliament. The United States continues to practically provide the entire fundamental background, however, there is no news on the most interesting topics, such as the China-US confrontation or the Hong Kong issue. Thus, we do not see any reason as to why the British pound can grow this week. It is clear that the dollar will not go up forever just because there is a lull in the UK news. But it would be logical to return to the area from which the not quite justified growth began. Thus, another 150 to 200 points down the pair is almost obliged to go. Well, future prospects will depend on the willingness of traders to invest in the dollar, despite all the problems that the United States have faced in recent weeks and months.

There are two main scenarios as of June 22:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains completely in the hands of sellers, since the upward trend line has been overcome. Therefore, short positions with the objectives of the support level of 1.2268, the area of 1.2194-1.2214 and the level of 1.2062, as the support area of 1.2400-1.2420 have also been overcome, are still relevant. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 65 to 275 points.

2) Sellers continue to dominate the market and leave no chance for the bulls. Thus, you are advised to consider purchase orders again but not before you consolidate the quotes of the pair above the downward channel. In this case, the bulls will be able to count on further growth with the goals of the Senkou Span B line and the resistance level of 1.2740. However, in the coming days such a development is not expected. Potential Take Profit in this case is up to 260 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 22. COT report. Sellers need to overcome the 1.1150-1.1170



The EUR/USD pair continued to move down on the hourly timeframe on June 19 and reached the support level of 1.1171 at both the end of the trading day and week. The euro/dollar continues to move strictly in the middle of the downward channel, not approaching its upper or lower line. At the same time, the upward trend line remains relevant, to which very little remains for traders. Sellers continue to put pressure on the European currency after two weeks of rest. Thus, the first trend line acts as an important line for bears (there is also a second one, much lower). If traders manage to overcome this line, then the chances of continuing the downward movement will significantly increase. Otherwise, we will expect correction first, and then price taking above the downward channel.



Both linear regression channels are still directed downward on the 15-minute timeframe, clearly signaling a downward trend in the shortest term. There are currently no signs of a possible turn up.

COT Report

The euro/dollar pair steadily rose until June 16 (the deadline, data for which is included in the latest COT report) and it only began a correction in the last two days. According to the COT report, professional traders were busy during the entire reporting week not with opening purchase contracts, which could be assumed based on the direction the pair was moving, but with closing sale contracts. Professional traders closed almost 20,000 sell contracts in just five days and opened 1,300 long euro contracts at the same time. Thus, the continued strengthening of the European currency was absolutely logical at that time. But, we emphasize that major market players are not buying the euro for the second week in a row, and therefore do not believe in the prospects of this currency. The euro grew for two weeks almost at the mere closure of contracts for sale by large speculators, which caused a skew of supply and demand for the euro. Accordingly, we believe that this week the dollar will continue to rise in price, and the new COT report will show a decrease in the net position in the euro.

The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains neutral, from our point of view. Over the course of two days off, of course, there were no important events in either the US or the EU. The general fundamental background remains quite controversial. If we take into account only economic factors, then both countries and both currencies remain approximately in the same position, since the crisis does not spare anyone. Political upheavals in the United States and the actions of Donald Trump are of great importance to what is called "the future", but in the short term they do not affect the market. You can take note of the speech of ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos on the first trading day of the week. However, we do not expect any important information from him, and there are no other planned events. Thus, an upward correction is possible. In general, we continue to believe that the bulls are saturated with the pair's purchases, all the more so, as the COT report shows, if they bought the euro, then obviously large market participants are not moving it. Even market participants who hedged their risks didn't very eagerly buy the euro in the reporting week. Thus, we cannot ascertain the growth in demand for the euro.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 22:

1) The bulls continue to remain in the shade, so the EUR/USD pair may continue the downward movement. However, in the current conditions, it is imperative for the bears to overcome the upward trend line, then short positions can be continued to maintain support levels of 1.1088 and 1.0962 ( all targets will be specified today). Potential Take Profit after overcoming the trend line is from 50 to 180 points.

2) We recommend considering the option to resume the growth of the EUR/USD pair only when the bulls manage to gain a foothold above the descending channel, and at the same time the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines, together with the resistance area 1.1326-1.1341. In this case, we advise you to buy with targets at resistance levels of 1.1380 and 1.1506 (these goals will also be specified). Potential Take Profit in this case is from 30 to 160 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 22. In focus: US GDP for the first quarter and orders for durable goods. In the UK, the

4-hour timeframe


Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -167.9343

The British pound has also been trading lower over the past week, but unlike the euro, it has fallen much more. However, we have repeatedly said that if the euro currency had at least some grounds for growth, the pound did not have any. We have already listed the reasons hundreds of times, and they remain unchanged. Thus, the current fall in the British currency does not cause any surprise. The only question is, to what levels are traders now ready to sell the pound? At the moment, it looks as if the pound/dollar pair is aiming for the level of 1.2080, which is the latest local low. However, we'll see. As in the case of the euro currency, we recommend paying more attention to the technical picture and not trying to catch the pair's reversals using fundamental analysis and macroeconomic events.

Nothing interesting has happened in the UK in recent days. Everything is quiet and calm, and the whole country seems to be waiting for the next stage of Brexit negotiations, which should this time be personally conducted by Boris Johnson with Ursula von der Leyen and other leaders of the European Union. However, so far Johnson has not flown to Brussels and it is unclear when he is going to do so. Earlier it was reported that the British Prime Minister is preparing to visit the legal capital of the EU in the second half of June. Well, all the economic news in the Foggy Albion is now the same as in the rest of the world. The economy continues to shrink, macroeconomic indicators continue to fall, the "coronavirus" seems to have been stopped, but new cases of the disease are still recorded, just in smaller volumes than before.

While the UK is "sleeping", the United States is burning with "news fire". On June 20, US President Donald Trump officially held his first campaign rally in Tulsa (Oklahoma). According to media reports, this rally was attended by a much smaller number of people than the organizers expected. Moreover, health professionals warned the American President of the danger of such a step, which did not stop Trump from holding a mass gathering of people to increase his popularity. In a typical style, Trump called people who participate in rallies (related to the death of George Floyd) "bad people who destroy history and beautiful monuments (meaning the destruction of some monuments by protesters)". Interestingly, on the eve of this event, 352 new cases of "coronavirus" were registered in Tulsa, and the gathering of a large number of people can lead to a new outbreak. Later it became known that 6 employees of the Trump election committee were infected with the virus, and at the entrance to the rally itself, all citizens were given a paper to sign, in which they refused to sue the American leader if they became infected. It should also be noted that most of the audience of Trump's speech was without medical masks, as, in fact, the president himself. The essence of the speech of the US leader did not cause any questions and it was quite possible not to go to the rally at all since Trump broadcasts the same thing from TV screens every day. As usual, the head of the White House attacked Joe Biden, the Democrats, the "enemy media" and called on all his supporters to fight back against the enemies. The rally ended with the following statement from Trump: "I did a phenomenal job. I saved hundreds of thousands of lives!"

For the pound/dollar currency pair, this week will also not be too interesting, although we should note a few events. No publications are scheduled for Monday in either the United States or the UK. On Tuesday, the UK will release business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors, which, like the European ones, may be significantly higher than the values of the previous month, but still below the level of 50.0. Similar indices will be published overseas. Wednesday is a day off in the United States and Britain, according to the calendar of macroeconomic events. On Thursday, a fairly large amount of information will be received from overseas, among which we highlight the report on orders for durable goods, which in the last two months showed the strongest reductions, but in May will begin to increase (according to forecasts). Also on this day, the US GDP for the first quarter, which is projected at -5%, will be known, as well as the next report on applications for unemployment benefits, which has already ceased to worry market participants. By the way, traders are also ready for -5% of GDP for a long time, so the main thing for the US currency is that the real value is not worse than minus 5%. On the last trading day of the week in America, reports are scheduled on changes in the volume of personal income and spending of the American population, which have recently been "jumping" up and down and also do not cause much interest among market participants. As you might guess, there are no scheduled reports or events in Albion this week.

Thus, we expect at least some correction of the pair in the new week. Since last Tuesday, the pound has lost more than 300 points and there has been no hint of a correction. However, at the same time, traders can continue to sell off the pound, since before that it showed almost the same non-recoilless growth for more than two weeks in a row. We expect to see the exchange rate in the area of $ 1.20 - $ 1.22 this week.


The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair continues to remain stable and is currently 129 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this indicator is "high". On Monday, June 22, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2215 and 1.2473. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a possible round of corrective movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2329

S2 – 1.2268

S3 – 1.2207

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2390

R2 – 1.2451

R3 – 1.2512

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to continue trading the pound/dollar pair for a decrease with the goals of 1.2268 and 1.2215. It is recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair not earlier than fixing quotes above the moving average with the first goals of 1.2573 and 1.2634.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 22. Boring week. All attention will again be focused in the US. The euro currency may

4-hour timeframe


Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -154.1407

The downward movement continued for the euro/dollar pair over the past week. Thus, the trend at the moment is already downward and there are no prerequisites for its change to an upward one. We still believe that the euro currency has completely exhausted its growth potential soon, although many factors can hypothetically allow the euro to rush up again. The fact is that now the markets have calmed down after the March and April panic, however, the general situation in the world and separately in the US and the European Union does not allow traders to trade in the usual way. First, the whole world is simply in crisis right now. And when there is a crisis in the yard, there is no question of any measured trade. Many major market players are trying to hedge their risks against possible future shocks, many market participants are trying to think far ahead because now the whole world knows how dangerous the "coronavirus" is and what consequences it can have for the economy. Thus, traders simply cannot trade following macroeconomic statistics, as was previously the case. And the statistics themselves are now a failure in the European Union, in the UK, and the US. What should traders do if on Monday there is a failed package of statistics in the US, and on Tuesday there is an equally failed package in the EU? On each news package, sell off the currency in the issuing country of which the next collapse of macroeconomic indicators? Even now, when the outright decline in indicators seems to have been suspended, there is no talk of any stabilization or recovery. "Coronavirus" has not yet been defeated. It continues to spread rapidly in many countries around the world. Even in countries that seem to have successfully managed the epidemic, no one is immune from new waves. Thus, the general situation in the world simply does not allow you to trade calmly now. Second, many traders previously paid increased attention to the key rates and monetary policies of the countries whose currencies they traded. And the advantage was clear for the United States. A relatively high bid, relatively "hawkish" policy. However, now all the central banks of the world have lowered their rates almost to zero (and some even lower), so there is no advantage for the United States and the US dollar. Moreover, it is not clear what the real consequences of the "coronavirus crisis" will be for the European Union, for America and other countries. It is unclear how many more waves of the epidemic will be when a cure is found, when mass production of this medicine begins. In general, now there are a huge number of questions that no one can answer. As Jerome Powell correctly said, the economic recovery will depend directly on the results of the fight against COVID-2019. Third, the European Union and the United States now have a huge number of so-called internal problems, which are still unknown how governments will cope. In the European Union, the biggest headache now is the 750 billion euro recovery fund, which is being considered by the 27 member countries of the alliance. Although everything will depend on the "greedy four" - Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Austria. Recall that these countries are opposed to providing grants to all the most affected countries from the "coronavirus crisis". In the United States, a political crisis is thundering, and more and more ordinary Americans, politicians, party members, and just high-ranking officials are speaking out against Donald Trump. Trump himself continues to accuse everyone in a row of what, in theory, he should be responsible for. And all these six months before the presidential election. Moreover, we should not forget that the conflict between China and America has not gone away. The "cold war" still looms on the horizon, however, it is unclear who will continue it if Trump is not re-elected? Have you noticed how recently the American President stopped commenting on the "coronavirus", stopped blaming China for the spread of the epidemic, and no one has seen evidence of China's guilt? Well, in addition to the figure of Donald Trump, there is also an economic crisis in the United States and the epidemic itself, which was not localized. Add to this the large-scale rallies and protests that have been going on for three weeks, caused by the racist scandal, and we get a very interesting picture, which is also unclear how it will affect the American economy and the US dollar in the future.

As a result of all the above, we continue to recommend that traders pay increased attention to technical factors that at this time best reflect what is happening in the market and forecast. However, we cannot completely ignore the macroeconomic statistics, so we will consider the most important and significant reports of the next week. On Monday, as is often the case, no important statistics will be published in either the US or the EU. There will only be a speech by ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, who from time to time makes really interesting statements. On Tuesday, business activity indices in the services, manufacturing and composite sectors in Germany, France, and the European Union will be released. All indices are expected to continue growing in June, however, they will all remain below the key level of 50.0, below which the industry itself is considered to be shrinking. Therefore, whatever the real values of business activity, we can only note a slowdown in the decline and not a recovery. No more news is planned for this week in the European Union. Thus, given the weak significance of the above reports (they are also just preliminary values), it is unlikely that market participants will pay any attention to them.

As a result, the whole week for the European currency promises to be quite boring. The next round of talks on the recovery fund will not take place until next month, and there are no other hot topics in the EU right now. Accordingly, traders will again closely monitor information from overseas, most of which, although it is insanely interesting and important, still does not affect the market "right here and now".


The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 22 is 95 points. Thus, the value of the indicator is still characterized as "high", but in general, volatility is decreasing. We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1081 and 1.1271 today. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will signal a new round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1108

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement. Thus, at this time, sell orders with the goals of 1.1108 and 1.1081 remain relevant until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up, which will indicate a correction. It is recommended to return to buying the pair not before fixing the price above the moving average with the first goals of 1.1353 and 1.1475.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -