Brexit: Why did the pound rise? Further euro growth is possible under a number of conditions

The euro and the pound continued to strengthen against the US dollar, despite the good fundamental data on the American economy, which were published yesterday in the afternoon.

The dollar is under pressure from a weak report on the labor market, which was published last Friday, while the pound has its support from the expectations of reaching an agreement on Brexit.

The pound rose yesterday by more than 2% after news that British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed on changes in the Brexit agreement. May will present these changes at a vote in the British parliament in the evening.

Many expect this to get approval from British lawmakers. Theresa May said that she is counting on the support of key members of parliament.

After yesterday's meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, although it had previously been announced that there would be no more meetings, May said that if the British parliament did not approve the agreement on Tuesday, there would be no other changes.

As noted above, yesterday's data on the US economy did not support the US dollar.

According to the report, inventories of US companies rose in December. According to the US Department of Commerce, inventories in December increased by 0.6% compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.995 trillion US dollars. Economists had expected stocks in December to grow by 0.6% compared with the previous month. The increase was mainly due to stocks in the wholesale and retail trade, where the increase was about 1.0%.

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An index showing US employment trends rose in February. This indicates a further recovery in the labor market, despite the weak Friday report. According to the Conference Board, the employment trends index in February 2019 was 111.15 points against 109.34 points in January of this year.

However, the company said that, despite the increase in the indicator, there has been no uptrend in recent months, indicating a likely slowdown in employment growth in 2019. Despite this, the labor shortage continues to grow amid high demand, which is a good sign for job seekers.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further euro growth will be possible only after going beyond the resistance of 1.1265, which will lead to a reversal of the downward trend and the renewal of major resistance in the 1.1290 and 1.1320 area. If there is no demand for risky assets above 1.1265 resistance and the price returns below this level closer to the afternoon, the pressure on the euro may increase, which will lead to a decrease in the trading instrument in the support area of 1.1220 and 1.1175.

The Australian dollar continued its weak recovery against the US dollar, however, data that housing loans financing in Australia was still low in January had a negative impact on the rate.

According to the report, the number of approved housing loans in January fell by 2.6% compared with December. Economists had expected the number of approved loans to remain unchanged.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: Theresa May did the almost impossible, and now the word for the British Parliament

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British Prime Minister Theresa May and the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, agreed on changes to the terms of Brexit, reports Reuters.

It is reported that the parties, in particular, agreed on the absence of control at the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland - an EU member.

At the same time, Jean-Claude Juncker said that the European Union would not agree to further negotiations and concessions. "There will be no third chance," he said.

"The choice is quite simple: either this deal or Brexit may not happen at all," he added.

Against the background of the emergence of positive news around the upcoming release of Britain from the EU, the pound sterling rose sharply against the dollar, exceeding $ 1.32.

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It should be recognized that progress in the negotiations between London and Brussels was made very timely since today the British Parliament will have to re-vote on the divorce agreement.

If this time the lawmakers do not approve the deal promoted by T. May, then on Wednesday in the House of Commons there will be a vote on leaving the country from the EU without any deal at all. If this option does not suit anyone (it is possible that she will not receive the necessary support also), then the Brexit deadline postponement will remain on the table at a later date.

Strategists at National Australia Bank believe that the implementation of the "hard" scenario can still be avoided.

"If the new deal is approved, it will be a driver for the growth of the pound sterling. In this case, the British currency can strengthen against the dollar to $ 1.35," said by the representatives of the financial institute.

"The pair GBP / USD can sink to the level of 1.20 if British parliamentarians reject the divorce agreement on Tuesday or reject the exit without a deal on Wednesday. However, more importantly, the pound may fall in price if lawmakers do not vote to postpone Brexit on Thursday," Societe Generale believes.

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March 12, 2019 : Intraday bullish scenario for the EUR/USD pair.

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market has been demonstrated obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430

That's why, the current bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where some limited bearish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 (Fibonacci 38.2%) is mandatory to enhance a further bullish advance towards 1.1300-1.1320 (the depicted supply zone) where bearish positions may be considered upon valid price action.

However, today's negative fundamental data from the US may push the EUR/USD pair for a bullish breakout above 1.1320 that leads directly towards 1.1370-1.1400 (next supply zone).

On the other hand, the earlier bearish breakout below the price level of 1.1235 (23.6% Fibonacci) will probably liberate a quick decline towards 1.1160 again.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 12, 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $3.847 but with the successful rejection of the key resistance at the price of $3.870, which is a sign that buying looks risky.

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According to the H4 time frame, we found that there is a potential end of the upward correction (complex zig-zag), which is a sign that the downward movement is expected in the next period. Most recently, there has been a breakout of the upward channel and the bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign that sellers took control from buyers. Besides, the test of the 20 EMA (resistance) is going on. This is a sign that buying looks risky. Support levels are seen at $3.637 and $3.524. The key resistance level is seen at $3.925.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on BTC from $3.840 with targets at $3.637 and $3.524. Protective stop is placed at $3.925.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. March 12. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Day X for the pound sterling and the UK

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 104.5183

The currency pair GBP / USD yesterday made an impressive leap up and broke the moving average line, thus changing the upward trend. From our point of view, nothing supernatural happened yesterday. The market has once again responded with powerful purchases to rumors and unverified information on the Brexit topic. This time, there was information that Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker agreed on certain amendments to the Brexit agreement document. It is reported that these amendments relate to "backstop" and guarantees to ensure openness on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and the possible replacement of "backstop" to any trade agreement. How this information relates to the fact that earlier Juncker reported that there would be no new negotiations and concessions is not clear. It is also unclear what kind of sacrifices Theresa May made of such amendments. If today at the vote it turns out that the wishes of the parliament on the "backstop" are taken into account, but other concessions to the EU have been created, this may again end in failure. However, at the moment, it should be recognized that the likelihood that the "deal" will be approved today by the British Parliament has really increased significantly, although, in our opinion, it does not exceed 50%. However, in this context, today can indeed be a fateful day for the UK.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3123

S3 - 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3245

R2 - 1.3306

R3 - 1.3367

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD has begun a sharp upward movement. Therefore, at the moment, long positions with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3306 are relevant, and the turning down of Heikin Ashi will signal the beginning of a correction.

It is recommended to open a sell position if the pair manages to consolidate below the moving average. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to down again and short positions with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3000 will become relevant.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. March 12. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The report on inflation in the US can "shake" the pair

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -14.9437

The currency pair EUR / USD on Tuesday, March 12, continues a moderate corrective upward movement to the moving average line. As we warned a day earlier, the main attention of traders this week will be riveted to the pound sterling. So it turns out from the very first trading day of the week. The euro passed no more than 40 points on Monday, the pound is more than 200. Such an attitude of traders will probably continue for at least three more days since there will be important Brexit ballots in the UK Parliament today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. Today, no macroeconomic reports are expected from the European Union. A report on inflation in the States can save a currency pair from the next day with minimal volatility. It will come out traditionally after lunch. The forecast is + 0.2% in February m / m and + 1.6% y / y. Any value above this forecast will serve as a factor in the strengthening of the US dollar, and vice versa. From a technical point of view, the downward trend is maintained, and the price has not even worked out the moving. Thus, we expect the resumption of the downward movement, which may be determined by turning down the Heikin Ashi indicator. There are no weighty fundamental reasons for the change in the trend for the ascending trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1.1169

S3 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1292

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues to be adjusted. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the completion of the correction and resume trading for a fall with a view to the Murray level of "-1/8" - 1.1169.

Long positions can be viewed after the price is fixed above the moving average line. In this case, the long positions will become relevant with the first goal of 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for March 12, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading upwards as we expected. EUR tested the level of 1.1284.

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Our yesterday's analysis is still valid. EUR has been extending the gains since our previous analysis. According to the daily time frame, we found that Keltner lower band (support) at 1.1177 was held successfully and that sellers didn't have power for the follow-up, which is a strong sign that sellers became oversold so the buyers reacted. Stochastic is creating the bullish divergence which may set the tone for the future. The key resistance level at the price of 1.1234 got broken, and we expect the further upward movement. The key resistance level is set at the price of 1.1315.

Trading recommendation: We are still long EUR from 1.1248 and with the target at 1.1315. Protective stop is placed at 1.1175.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for March 12, 2019

Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1.299.00. Buyers in control, careful with short positions.

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Nothing specially changed since our previous analysis. According to the H1 time – frame, there is a confirmed accumulation phase and successful re-test, which is sign that buyers are in control and that we may expect further upward movement. Key support is seen at the price of $1.280.60 and key short-term resistance at the price of $1.300.00. The breakout of the $1.300.00 would confirm test of $1.311.10 and $1.320.00.

Trading recommendation: We are long on gold from $1.296.00 and with targets at $1.311.50 and $1.320.40. Protective stop is placed at $1.280.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of USD / CAD for the week of March 12

Large TF:

The main direction of the price movement from September 2017 is given by the ascending wave. By the end of last year, the price reached the bottom of the wide potential reversal zone.

Small TF:

The bearish wave from December 28 will take the place of correction in a larger model. Since the beginning of February, a correction has developed in the wave, which has reached the minimum level of completion at the time of analysis. Signal reversal is not observed, so further elongation up cannot be excluded.

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Forecast and recommendations:

A temporary price rise is developing on the chart, which at any time can be replaced by a return to price reduction. Purchasing is risky. It is recommended to wait for the signals for the completion of the current rise and look for signals to sell the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3650 / 1.3700

- 1.3410 / 1.3460

Support areas:

- 1.3120 / 1.3070

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of EUR / GBP for the week of March 12

Large TF:

The last unfinished wave model of the weekly bear scale is starting from August 2017. At the end of last year, the last part started (C).

Small TF:

In the bearish wave of December 10, the middle part of the structure (B) ended yesterday, having the form of a shifting plane. The decline area that started further has a high reversal potential. After the upcoming short-term rollback, it will give rise to a new round of the main wave.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The flat part of a difficult correction, in which the price was in the entire past month, has been completed. Traders at the ends of the counter are encouraged to start tracking reversal signals to search for entry into short transactions.

Resistance zones:

- 0.8580 / 0.8630

Support areas:

- 0.8300 / 0.8250

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What will happen to the pound?

Pound still follows the news headlines as it sharply reacts to any more or less significant informational guide. On the eve of the key vote, the European Union made a serious curtsy towards Britain and this fact can change the whole situation.

Thus, tonight, the key event of this week will take place at approximately 4 to 5 o'clock London time. The British Parliament will express its opinion on the "updated" deal with the European Union while the British currency today is reeling from the very morning. The GBP/USD pair will either rose to the boundaries of 1.33 and then went down to the base of the 30th figure. Such volatility is fully justified because the most important question at stake is whether the agreement will be approved by the House of Commons or the negotiating saga will continue. In the morning, it became known that there was a ghostly chance of negotiating a deal and although this assumption looks incredible given the previous rhetoric of British parliamentarians and EU representatives, certain prerequisites for such a scenario exist.

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Late yesterday evening, Theresa May arrived in Brussels, where she met again the head of the European Commission, Juncker. Negotiations ended far after midnight but their results gave some hope to traders. Both in Europe and in Britain they started talking about a long-awaited breakthrough that can put together the general puzzles of the "divorce process". Thus, the British government said that May was able to agree on amending the Agreement on withdrawal from the European Union.

The essence of these changes is reduced to the lack of control on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This is a temporary measure until 2020. Having developed a legal mechanism of control on the Irish border, Britain and the European Union must conclude a new agreement. Going to such concessions, Junker warned that there will not be another chance for the British, either they vote for the deal today or there will be no deal at all; no additional interpretations, clarifications, guarantees or memorandums. Thus, Juncker hinted that the postponement of Brexit would not solve anything. In the month of June or July, deputies will receive the same draft of the transaction since the European Union will not move a bit from their positions.

Initially, the pound initially reacted quite positively to this news, updating the multi-week price high. However, then optimism was replaced by pessimism as rumors appeared on the market that this proposal of Europeans would not find its support within the walls of the British parliament. In addition, according to the same rumors, the Prosecutor General of Britain, Geoffrey Cox, presented to the government legal assessments of the updated deal and these estimates are pessimistic. Thus, the deal was threatened again, as well as the expediency of extending the negotiation period.

However, according to a number of European journalists, the head of the European Commission is disingenuous. In fact, Brussels is considering another scenario, according to which Britain will remain in the European Union until 2020 or 2021 by prolonging the operation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. According to press reports, Europe is developing this option in case the parties will not be able to find a compromise after the postponement of Brexit until the beginning of the summer. A broader time frame is needed for the next or extraordinary parliamentary elections to be held in Britain and Brussels and negotiated new terms of the deal with the new government, which in turn was appointed by the new parliament.

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The leitmotif of this scenario is obvious. In Europe, we are confident that the idea of Brexit no longer has the former support of the British, confirmed by the conducted opinion polls. Hence, the next convocation of parliament will be less rigid about future relations between London and the EU. There is one significant flaw in this scenario: the British should at least initiate such a long delay. The implementation of this clause may be problematic since the country will actually take not "an extra minute" to complete the negotiations but will completely cancel the will of its citizens.

In other words, the long-term prospects of the negotiation process look too vague, therefore, the market responds only to the news flow in the "here and now" mode. Hence, such strong volatility for the pair amid the morning news about Juncker's new offer has allowed the pair to update price highs, while the subsequent legal assessment of the Prosecutor General returned the pair to the bottom of the 30th figure. According to unofficial information, Geoffrey Cox warned cabinet ministers that there were still some risks for Britain: London. According to Cox, there will be no legal levers to get out of the backstop. Such comments have reduced the likelihood of approval of the transaction in the framework of today and given the recent statements by Juncker, the postponement of Brexit will only postpone the problem by several months but will not solve it in essence.

However, the chances of approval of the transaction in the framework of today still remain, despite the position of the Prosecutor General. The European Union made a rather serious curtsy towards Britain and this fact can change the whole situation. Everything depends on what moods are among the conservatives after the updated Juncker proposal. In turn, the pound will continue to follow the news headlines, sharply reacting to any more or less significant information. Talking about any predictions in such conditions is impossible because if the pendulum still sways towards the approval of the transaction, with which this option is by no means excluded, the GBP/USD pair will not only catch up but at the same time, update the annual maximum price.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

March 12, 2019 : GBPUSD is losing ground

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the current bearish pullback was demonstrated towards the uptrend again.

A weekly gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) . However, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated Yesterday rendering the mentioned bearish gap as a false bearish breakout.

Bullish persistence above 1.3060 ( Fibonacci 50% ) is mandatory to pursue the bullish momentum towards 1.3130 then 1.3190-1.3200 where the next Fibonacci levels are located.

On the other hand, bearish breakout below 1.2990 (Fibonacci 50%) invalidates this bullish setup rendering the short term outlook bearish towards 1.2890 then 1.2770.

Trade Recommendations :

The GBP/USD pair remains bullish as long as price is maintained above 1.2990 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

Target levels are projected towards 1.3130, 1.3200 and 1.3250. H1 candlestick closure below 1.2990 invalidates this bullish setup as mentioned above.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Decisive days for Brexit and Theresa May on March 12-14

Today, on March 12, the decisive vote on an agreement with the EU in the British Parliament or accept the agreement.

On March 13, in case of failure of the agreement today, there is an option to vote of leaving Britain from the EU without an agreement.

On March 14, there is a vote to postpone Brexit for a long time.

It is practically nowhere to postpone the vote since Britain's release date will be on March 29, if nothing is decided.

Premier May made a final attempt to obtain concessions from the EU on an agreement with the question of the border of Northern Ireland. She met Juncker (EU) late in the evening on March 11 and seemed to have agreed on something but was kept secret.

Most likely, the parliament will not accept the agreement with the EU and as a result, it will accept the option to postpone Brexit on March 14.

Analysts believe that with the failure of the agreement today, hence, the pound could fall sharply to minus 8% of current prices.

On the other hand, the adoption of an agreement could sharply strengthen the pound and, possibly, the euro also.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of USD / CHF for the week of March 12

Large TF:

Since February of last year, the quotations of the major Swiss franc form an upward wave model. The structure of the wave enters the final phase.

Small TF:

Since January 10, the chart traces a distinct ascending zigzag. The final leg counts from the end of last month. Before further rise expected a corrective pullback.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming weeks, the growth phase of the pair is expected, i.e. weakening of the franc relative to the North American currency. The upcoming decrease in traders can use to enter or enhance purchases of pairs in the most favorable conditions.

Resistance zones:

- 1.0250 / 1.0300

Support areas:

- 1.0060 / 1.0010

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for March 12. A bearish divergence prepares the euro for a new fall

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart, after fixing above the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1216, continue the process of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1299. On March 12, a bearish divergence is on the CCI indicator. Its education will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the American currency and a return to the Fibo level of 100.0%. Closing quotes of the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the probability of a further fall towards the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1120.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from November 12, 2018, and January 10, 2019.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair closed below the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Thus, on this graph, it is more preferable to resume the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 161.8% - 1.0941. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out now with the target of 1.1299, as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.1216, and a Stop Loss order with a correction level of 100.0%, and hold them until a bearish divergence is formed.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with targets at 1.1216 and 1.1120 if a bearish divergence is formed or the pair rebounds from the level of 1.1299.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for March 12. A movement upwards for the pound before a new fall?

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a rebound from the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2969 and a reversal in favor of the British currency with an exit to the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.3300. Quoting quotes on March 12 from a correction level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.3090. There are no ripening divergences today. Closing the pair above the 100.0% level will increase the chances of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.3530.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair closed above 23.6% - 1.3212, but the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator (the last peak of quotations was much higher than the previous one, which does not correspond to the indicator peaks) allowed the quotes to turn in favor of the US dollar and return to the Fibo level of 23.6%. Fixing quotes below this level will allow us to expect to continue falling towards the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.3130.

The Fib net is built on extremes from February 14, 2019, and February 27, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.3349 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 23.6% if the pair closes above 1.3212 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.3130 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 23.6%, as the pair completed closing below the level of 1.3212 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD pair on March 12. Justified expectations or complete disappointment on Brexit?

Wave counting analysis:

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On March 11, the GBP/USD pair rose by 210 bp, thus preparing to vote in parliament for the Brexit agreement, which will be held today. I can conclude that the markets are set positively for the evening vote but this does not mean that the parliament will approve Theresa May's initiatives today. A very likely option is with the failure of the vote and the postponement of Brexit to a later date. The UK will have to pay the European Union for this transfer with such lengthy transfers, like the Brexit hard scenario, which is not what the UK needs. In general, we are waiting for the evening and see how the first vote will end, which can cause again strong movements in the instrument analyzed.

Purchase targets:

1.3348 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2891 - 50.0% Fibonacci (senior Fibonacci grid)

1.2784 - 61.8% Fibonacci (senior Fibonacci grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a downward set of waves and yesterday's rise interpreted with the 2nd wave as part of this set. Therefore, sales are now expedient with targets of 1.2891 and 1.2784, which equates to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. I recommend placing a protective order above the maximum of wave e, which is very convenient in current conditions. Evening voting may result in strong movements that may lead to the need for clarifying the wave marking.

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Trading plan for 03/12/2019

Well, how are we without Brexit? Of course nothing! Last night, Theresa May made another loud statement that brought enthusiasm to the entire financial world. The Prime Minister announced that she will submit new additions to the divorce agreement to the House of Commons for today. This will happen exactly before the parliamentarians cast their votes on this most unfortunate agreement. This alone was enough to pound, making the single European currency rush up. It is true when we say that it feels like no one was listening to what was said. After all, the text of the agreement itself remains unchanged. This is not surprising, since the Europeans completely refused to even discuss the possibility of amending the text of the agreement, which they have already approved. Theresa May brought not regular promises of the Brussels bureaucracy but a new agreement to London. Chief of Staff of the Prime Minister of Great Britain David Lidington said that two documents will be submitted to parliamentarians, supplementing the existing divorce agreement. One of them is supposedly a promise of the European Union not to include the mechanism of "backstop", implying the preservation of the existing border regime between Northern Ireland and Ireland. After all, if the UK leaves the European Union and the border and customs situation on the Emerald Isle remains the same, the United Kingdom is not only in a very disadvantageous economic situation, but also risks acquiring a threat to its territorial integrity. The second document talks about the assurance of the parties on their desire to replace "backstop" with a full-fledged trade agreement by December 2020. Moreover, Teresa May said that obviously, before voting in the House of Commons, a pullback is worth noting both in pound and in the single European currency. But then, the situation is almost unpredictable.

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After all, Jeremy Corbin, unlike many, did not only read the headlines, but also read the question more deeply. And immediately, he saw that no new agreement was made, but only regular promises and best wishes. Great Britain has a vast experience in the management of the colonial empire. In fact, its politicians are well aware on their promises to do something about the prices in the future. The leader of the Labor Party has already declared that parliamentarians should reject the agreement and all related promises that are cheaper than the paper on which they are written. Thus, it is most likely that the House of Commons will again reject the agreement with the European Union, and after which, the question of postponing the eviction of Great Britain from a European dormitory will be considered. Therefore, we are expecting for a sharp decline in the pound, as well as the single European currency. In this case, a new growth against the background of new optimistic expectations shows that London will finally agree with Brussels.

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The euro / dollar currency pair showed moderate movement, aimed at the correction. Probably, a temporary fluctuation in the range of 1.1250 / 1.1270 is assumed. Also, we will be listening to the information background and we'll be waiting for possible bursts.

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The currency pair pound / dollar on the information background has managed to show high volatility, jumping up to the level of 1.3286. We'll probably assume for a temporary rollback to 1.3170, then continue to listen to the background information and wait for new bursts.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on March 12, 2019

Wave counting analysis:

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On Monday, March 11, trading of the EUR/USD pair ended and increased by 15 bp increase. Thus, there are more and more reasons for assuming the completion of the descending trend section. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 127.2% according to Fibonacci also indirectly indicates the end of the downward wave. The pair may continue to raise the quotes as part of building a new upward wave and possibly a new uptrend trend. Thus, I now expect an increase in the area of 1.1330. Today, I recommend paying attention to inflation in America, which is an important indicator and may have an impact on trading in the analyzed instrument.

Sales targets:

1.1184 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.1119 - 161.8% Fibonacci

Purchase targets:

1.1419 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair is presumed to have completed the construction of the 5th wave. Thus, only a breakthrough of the level of 127.2% Fibonacci will return us to sales. Now, I recommend buying a pair of small volumes with targets located around 13 and 14 figures, based on the construction of the ascending 1st wave or a.

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BITCOIN Analysis for March 12, 2019

Bitcoin has been extremely volatile since the bounce off the $4,000 area with a daily close. The price recently managed to gain momentum amid bullish pressure which broke above the $3,880 event level with a retest.

The break below $3,880 is currently viewed as a false break whereas the bullish momentum above is expected to be quite strong pushing higher towards $4,000. The bulls are still quite active in Bitcoin, so impulsive bullish pressure with strong rejection can be observed above $3,000. The dynamic level of 20 EMA is currently residing below the current price in this volatile range which is expected to lead to an advance towards $4,000 in the future. As the price remains above $3,500-600 support area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600, 3,800-80

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for March 12, 2019

EUR/USD continues to move higher towards our bounce target area of 1.1280-1.13. Price continues to make higher highs and higher lows but as long as we trade below 1.14 our medium-term view remains bearish.

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Red line - major trend line resistance

Green line - major trend line support

Blue area - bounce target area and resistance

EUR/USD has reached our downside target of 1.12 and has bounced as expected. Price is now challenging the resistance area of 1.1280-1.13. Short-term trend is bullish as long as price is above 1.1250. A four hour close below 1.1250 will open the way for a move towards 1.12-1.1180. Failing to hold 1.12 would be a medium-term bearish sign strengthening the bearish scenario for a move towards 1.11-1.10. We continue to consider every bounce as a selling opportunity. We are bearish as long as price is below the red trend line resistance.

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Technical analysis for Gold for March 12, 2019

Gold price has pulled back as expected from $1,300 towards $1,290 and is now expected to move higher towards $1,310. It is important for this scenario to come true, for price not to break below $1,290 and especially below $1,285.

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Red line - RSI support

Gold price has reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement and got rejected. Resistance remains strong at $1,300 and as long as we trade below it there is still danger of making another sell off towards $1,250-60 area. Support at $1,290-85 is crucial for this scenario. Holding above $1,290-85 keeps hopes alive for a move towards $1,310. Breaking below $1,290 will cancel this bullish scenario for $1,310 and will make me expect another selling round to push price below $1,280.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on March 12, 2019

The British pound rose by 175 points yesterday with little or no reason, just in anticipation of today's Brexit vote in parliament. Moreover, the expectations of its outcome cannot be called optimistic, on the contrary, the majority of political scientists suggest a negative decision on the current issue of the Irish border. Actually, the meaning of the series of voting can be reduced to the fact that the date of the country's withdrawal from the EU is postponed to a later date. As far as it may be optimistic about the impact on the pound, it is doubtful since at the moment the British currency does not look oversold. Technical equilibrium of EUR/GBP pair can be determined approximately at a price of 0.8300, which is 2.6% lower than the current value but this deviation is quite moderate, even in small fluctuations. In other words, growth of the GBP/USD pair is possible to the MACD line of 1.3400 on the weekly chart. But in this case, a double price divergence with the Marlin oscillator on a daily basis will be formed, which warns of the short-term growth that is taking place.

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If today's vote on the "improved" deal fails, then tomorrow the parliamentarians will vote on the question to "Leave the UK out of the EU without a deal." On Thursday, the question is "to postpone or not the Brexit date" and it seems that delaying the date X now will satisfy everyone, which is evident even in the wording of the questions.

Hence, in the main scenario, we are waiting for the failure of today's vote, turning the pound off the MACD line with a target of 1.2930 on the four-hour chart. A positive voting outcome will send the price to 1.3400 from where we look to the reversal signals of the indicators. Voting will be in the evening.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on March 12, 2019

As we expected in the last review, the Australian dollar formed a double convergence and worked its growth to the MACD line on the four-hour chart. At the same time, the price entered the consolidation zone on March 4-6, it is marked with a gray rectangle on the H4 chart. Given the general downward trend which is clearly visible on the daily chart as all indicators consistently indicate a downward trend, we expect the price to turn down from the current resistance on H4 and a further decline in the "Australian" to support the nested line of the 0.6970 price channel. However, you need to wait for confirmation and a fixation the price below the signal level of 0.7053. In case of fixation above the MACD line of 0.7086, it is possible to continue the corrective growth to the MACD line at 0.7143 on the daily scale.

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The flow of negativity may again collapse sterling

The situation in the foreign exchange markets remains controversial. It balances around the already annoying topics - the US-China trade negotiation process, Brexit, as well as the Fed's act of stopping the process of raising interest rates on a wave of stable signals and the risks of a slowdown in the American economy. As we have repeatedly pointed out earlier, it is the extreme degree of uncertainty around the prospects for these phenomena, as well as the fact that the growth of Chinese and European economies has slowed down. It produces high volatility and sharp nerve movements in the first place currency pairs with the US dollar.

So yesterday, on Monday, after a fairly noticeable strengthening of the dollar on Friday, there came huge pressure. There are no visible new reasons for this. Assessing the overall dynamics, we can say that market participants are "swinging", buying or selling a dollar, but at the same time they strictly adhere to the ranges established by the end of last year.

On Monday, the British pound most notably distinguished itself, which rose sharply on the message that British Prime Minister T. May was still going to Strasbourg again to discuss the topic of Brexit. Having no clear and clear idea of how this whole tragic comedy will end around the exit of Britain from the European Union. Large market players were using a high degree of tension, and vigorously were selling sterling. However, on the contrary, they would buy it.

The prime minister's next trip caused a wave of pound purchases, which he added against all currencies traded against him. Of course, in their trading decisions, investors proceed from common sense, which is based on the fact that the local British elite will not cut the branch on which they sit; and therefore will do everything to save the situation. And this is absolutely true. However, as the events take place around the emergence of Brexit and the further transformation of this situation have shown, the logic of the ruling elite is clearly not enough. In the political fit of fighting for a place in the sun, the elite are ready to really cut the branch on which it has been sitting. In fact, these were observed since 2016 ever since the referendum.

The government has already started playing to such an extent that would want them to sit on two chairs - to leave the EU, and t the same time, the decision to retain all the benefits and preferences of a participant in this union. It can simply fall between these two "chairs". We would not be surprised if the negotiation process between May and the EU representatives brings nothing new today. More so, the sterling collapses again on this wave, which leads it to rush to the starting point of its growth on Monday.

We doubt that there will be any heavy agreements, but the result of the next Brexit vote in parliament against this background may lead to a drop in sterling in the market. A pair of GBPUSD may also go down under the pressure of the publication of consumer inflation data in the US in case of presenting its growth in monthly terms. This would be a good reason for large speculators to start selling sterling again.

Forecast of the day:

EURUSD is trading above 1.1250. If the pair drops below this mark in the wake of the next failure of Mei's voyage to Strasbourg and in the wake of a vote in parliament, there is a possibility that the price will drop to 1.1175.

GBPUSD is also for the same reasons in which EURUSD may turn down. Its decline below the level of 1.3180 can lead to its fall to 1.2960.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for March 12, 2019

USD remained the strongest currency in the pair while dominating CAD in the process. USD was positive amid the recent economic reports while the Fed was hawkish as the upcoming development plans indicate further gains on the USD side in the coming days.

Recently, the US Retail Sales report was published showing an increase to 0.2% from the previous value of -1.6% and Core Retail Sales also went up to 0.9% from the previous value of -2.1%. It was expected to reach 0.4%. The today's CPI report is also expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.0%. The Fed is conducting a broad policy review which might result in the higher inflation rate, a bit more than expected. Now, the Fed is taking wait-and-see approach regarding future policy changes. The optimistic bias in the economy is expected to maintain healthy gains for USD.

On the other hand, CAD has been quite mixed in light of recent economic reports which lead to further weakness against USD. Key job data published on Friday put pressure on CAD, but after that the Canadian Dollar managed to regain certain momentum. This week on Thursday, the CAD NHPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.0%. If it is worse or unchanged then further weakness of CAD will be expected in the coming days.

As of the current scenario, USD went up despite the recent mixed employment report that is expected to push the price much higher against CAD. Whereas CAD shows better results in light of the upcoming economic reports, further weakness is expected on the bearish side of the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently struggling at the edge of breaking above the 1.3400 area. It is expected to lead to strong bullish momentum. A break above 1.3400 with daily close will only indicate a strong impulsive momentum towards 1.35 which is an event area. On the contrary, a daily close below 1.3400 area is expected to lead the price lower towards 1.3300 and 1.3200 support area in the coming days.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 12)

For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed the so-called mega-volatility of 227 points, returning the quote to the point of the beginning of the corrective move 1.3300. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a 100% recovery after a 10-day decline, where the quote came close to the range level of 1.3300. Naturally, such fluctuations can be triggered solely by the informational and news background. Yesterday, negotiations were held in Strasbourg between Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker concerning the ill-fated Brexit agreement, where new legal guarantees were reached on the borders between Ireland, which is a part of Britain and Northern Ireland. Theresa May said: "We have made legal changes to the agreement on secession from the European Union. This is exactly what Parliament wanted from us. The arrangements are transparent: "backstop" cannot last forever. " At the expense of such news, the pound literally took off, but most of the whole movement is speculative interest, since there are a lot of nuances with this agreement. In turn, the leader of the British Labor Party Parliament rejects the deal with the EU, which is alarming for the investors and making it clear what is happening.

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Today, the focus of all market participants is voting in the UK Parliament, where a decision will be made regarding the agreement. In turn, experts are already inclined to a common opinion that it will be rejected. In any case, for the speculators expanse, the volatility will remain at a high level.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the speculative bullish attitude persists in the market, although a rollback in this case would be the most logical solution. On the eve of the vote, we are waiting for a high amplitude oscillation, not excluding 1.3300-1.3200, where if the agreement is blocked, we will see a sharp move down, but then there will be an attempt to consider the issue of postponing the exit, but on this news, the return of the quote is possible.

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As you already understood, the amplitude can be very high, as well as the risk of trading. Thus, if you are not confident in your abilities and jumping in impulses is not your job, then it's best to sit on the fence ***. But if you are focused on speculative operations, then you can try to break into impulses. In the event of a verdict in the British Parliament - listen to the information background.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is an upward interest on the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term. It should be understood that indicators of indicators on smaller TFs can quickly change due to jumps on the information background.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 12, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 99 points, which is no longer a low value for a given time interval. It is likely to assume that due to the information background, the volatility will still grow, overcoming the average daily rate.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1,3200 *; 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** We sit on the fence - slang expression, we are out of the market

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Burning Forecast 03/12/2019

This is a critical day for Brexit: Today, a principal vote will be held on an agreement with the EU in the British Parliament. It is no longer possible to delay - the deadline for Britain's exit from the EU is set for March 29 - or the Parliament will approve a new version of the agreement with the EU - or, which is very likely, Britain's departure from the EU will be postponed for a very long time.

On Monday, late in the evening, British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commissioner Juncker made another attempt to reach a new agreement - and, it seems, they found an option - but it is kept secret. A vote in the Parliament for today, March 12th. In case an agreement is not reached in the Parliament - Prime May will put the exit from the EU without an agreement on March 13 and the postponement of Britain's exit on March 14 (according to plan).

EURUSD: The euro is also waiting for a decision on Brexit - in response to the pound's sharp movements.

We keep selling from 1.1315.

Sell the euro from 1.1175.

Alternative: Buy from 1.1425.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 12. Theresa May has a "trump card up her sleeve"

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The pound rose sharply yesterday after Theresa May's unplanned meeting with Juncker was announced. At this meeting, a number of new conditions were reached in the Brexit agreement, which will be represented today in Parliament at the vote, which is also expected by many to help reach an agreement. Pound purchases are best considered after a downward correction from support levels of 1.3175 and 1.3126. A breakthrough with a consolidation above 1.3219 will also be a signal to buy with a target of 1.3262 and 1.3313.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, the bears have to rely on weak data on UK GDP, which can form a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.3219, which will lead to selling of the pound to the support area of 1.3175 and 1.3126, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound increases above 1.3219 in the first half of the day, you can take a closer look at short positions against the resistance of 1.3262 and 1.3313.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is carried out above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of a bullish trend.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound decreases, support will be provided by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3175. The upward correction will be limited to the upper limit around 1.3285, from where you can consider selling the pound

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 12. The euro rests and tries to continue to grow, but there is little strength

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Good US data was ignored by the market. At the moment, euro buyers ran into a new resistance level of 1.1264, a breakthrough of which will maintain an upward momentum, which will lead to a test of new highs in the area of 1.1290 and 1.1317, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a downward correction, one can also count on long positions in the support area of 1.1225, in the event of a false breakdown, as was the case yesterday, or on a rebound from a low of 1.1200.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The downward trend is not yet broken. Sellers need to form a false breakdown in the area of a resistance of 1.1264, which will be the first signal to open short positions in euros in order to return to the support of 1.1225. However, the main task will be a breakthrough and consolidation below the level of 1.1225, which will lead to a larger movement of the euro down to the lows of 1.1200 and 1.1175, where I recommend taking profits. If the growth scenario is higher than 1.1264, short positions can be opened for a rebound from a high of 1.1290 and 1.1317.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

As long as trading will be above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, the demand for euros will continue. However, a return below the average will be an additional signal to sell.

Bollinger bands

The euro's growth could be limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the region of 1.1270, while the lower limit in the area of 1.1226 might help buyers.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Indicator analysis. Daily review on March 12, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the upward movement will continue. The first upper target 1.3283 is the pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line), with an attempt to break through this level.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the upward movement will continue. The first upper target 1.3283 is the pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line), with an attempt to break through this level.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on March 12, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price may continue its upward movement. The first upper target 1.1270 is the pullback level of 38.2% (blue dotted line) and further up to the pullback level of 50% - 1.1299 (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price may continue upward movement. The first upper target 1.1270 is the pullback level of 38.2% (blue dotted line) and further up to the pullback level of 50% - 1.1299 (blue dotted line).

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Ethereum Elliott Wave analysis for 12/03/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has just made another lower low on its way down just as anticipated. The local technical support at the level of 127.85 has been broken and the new low was made at 127.06. Nevertheless, this is not the end of the down move as the next target is seen at the level of 125.20 and then at the wave X bottom at 121.92. The wave X at the ETH/USD market has might have been completed, but the bulls are not able to break through the technical resistance zone located between the levels of 139.63 - 142.22. This is why the wave X might now be still unfolding into a more complex and time-consuming pattern, which means another leg down for this market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 160.89

WR2 - 150.37

WR1 - 143.35

Weekly Pivot - 132.11

WS1 - 124.46

WS2 - 114.39

WS3 - 108.32

Trading Recommendations:

All previous sell orders have hit the first and the second target.

Currently, still, only sell orders should be open as close as possible to the level of 129.00 The protective stop-loss orders should be placed at 137.69 level as any violation of this level will invalidate the short-term bearish outlook. The first target is seen at the level of 125.20, then at 121.92. Any violation of the wave X low at the level of 121.92 will confirm the bearish outlook.

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Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 12/03/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

At the BTC/USD pair, another wave down is being made and it is in line with the expectations of one more wave down, in that circumstances the wave (c) of the wave 2. The first indication of this wave to unfold was the Shooting Star candlestick pattern around the 50% Fibonacci retracement, which usually indicates a possibility of a trend reversal.The next target for this wave is seen at the level of $3,813, but this is not the final target as the wave (c) should easily move below the bottom of the wave (a) located at the level of $3,724. The bearish bias continues and the momentum supports the negative outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,374

WR2 - $4,179

WR1 - $4,091

Weekly Pivot - $3,907

WS1 - $3,816

WS2 - $3,625

WS3 - $3,539

Trading Recommendations:

The battle of 50% Fibo retracement located at the level of $3,986 has been lost by bulls, so now only sell orders should be open as close as possible to this level. The protective stop-loss orders should be placed at $4,010 level as any violation of this level will invalidate the short-term bearish outlook. The potential wave (c) should be a form of an impulsive wave, so it will be a sudden and quick wave down (it even might be a spike down), so please be prepared.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for March 12, 2019

The UK is currently getting ready for the departure from the EU this month. Brexit will definitely deliver a blow to the UK economy and the national currency in particular. So, USD may regain impulsive momentum.

The Bank of England has been preparing for the no-deal BREXIT crisis and warned some lenders to hold enough liquid assets to cope with stress of 100 days. Ahead of March 29, it is still quite unclear whether there would be a deal, delay or no-deal BREXIT. As the biggest impact of BREXIT is going to be on the financial industry, the BOE is currently trying to prepare them with proper guidance along the way ahead of the big impact. Moreover, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is still trying to save her deal by talking to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. So, the talks to be held today are goingto impact on GBP gains depending on the outcome.

Today the UK GDP report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of -0.4% and Manufacturing Production is also expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.7%. Additionally, Construction Output is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous value of -2.8% and Industrial Production is also expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of -0.5%.

On the USD side, recently FED Chair Jerome Powell stated that the US does not consider changing its funds interest rate soon as the global economy slowdown is affecting the economy. According to Powell, the rates are currently quite appropriate to sustain economic momentum. Recently US Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.2% from the previous value of -1.6% which was expected to be at 0.0% and Core Retail Sales increased to 0.9% from the previous value of -2.1% which was expected to be at 0.4%. Moreover, today US CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.0% and Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%.

Meanwhile, GBP is quite optimistic with the upcoming high impact economic reports whereas USD being positive with the recently published Retail Sales did not quite help the US currency to sustain its gains it had earlier. This indicates that GBP is far stronger than USD at the current market situation. Though certain correction may be observed along the way, ultimately GBP is expected to lose momentum due to looming BREXIT situation and afterwards.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading above 1.3100 area after the impulsive break with a daily close. Currently the price is expected to retrace back to the 1.31 area before it manages to push higher towards 1.3350 resistance area in the coming days. As the price reside above 1.3100 area, the impulsive bullish pressure is expected to build up more.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 12/03/2019

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 12/03/2019

The sudden rebound was driven on the news, how long will it last?

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has bounced and rebounded from the technical support located at the level of 1.2959, broken the trendline and very quickly moved towards the level of 1.3258. The zone between the levels of 1.3258 - 1.3304 has not been violated, so a Pin Bar candle was made at the top on the move, which might indicate a temporary pause in the rally and a local pull-back. The first level for the pull-back is seen at the 1.3198 and if the move down is stronger, then even at 1.3108. The momentum supports the move up and so is the stochastic indicator, so after the pull-back, the price might break-through the resistance at the level of 1.3304 and head towards the level of 1.3362.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3385

WR2 - 1.3316

WR1 - 1.3123

Weekly Pivot - 1.3053

WS1 - 1.2856

WS2 - 1.2781

WS3 - 1.2654

Trading Recommendations:

All the sell orders opened during the pullback should be now closed and new ones can be opened anywhere between the levels of 1.3258 - 1.3304. The targets are seen at the level of 1.3108 and 1.3100.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com