EUR/JPY analysis for January 31, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 135.60. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a bullish breakout of the 2-day balance, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a rising upward trendline and hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The projected upwarrd target is set at the price of 136.50.

Resistance levels:

R1: 135.36

R2: 135.82

R3: 136.44

Support levels:

S1: 134.28

S2: 133.67

S3: 133.20

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for January 31, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.4121. Anyway, accorrding to the 15M time – frarme I found a successful rejection of Fibonacci retracement 38.2%, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I aslo found a bullish cross on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.4210 and at the price of 1.4264 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4217

R2: 1.4285

R3: 1.4405

Support levels:

S1: 1.4030

S2: 1.3912

S3: 1.3845

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 31, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested my third target level at the $9.857. Venezuela's president Nicols Maduro has announced the pre-sale of his country's national oil-backed cryptocurrency, the petro. In addition, he has presented and signed the official petro's whitepaper and unveiled the Petro Container for mining the new currency. Intrraday technical picture looks neutral to bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The breakout of $10.300 will confirm the pattern. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strerngth. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The projected upward target is set at the price of $10.985.

Support/Resistance

$10.479 – Intraday resistance

$9.715 – Intraday support

$10.985 – Objective target

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 31, 2018

EUR/USD: Following the bearish correction that was seen at the beginning of this week, the EUR/USD pair is now going gradually upward again. The bias has long been bullish and price is expected to reach the resistance lines at 1.2500 and 1.2550 today or tomorrow. Pullbacks along the way are supposed to be temporary.

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USD/CHF: In the short term, this pair consolidated on Monday and then began to move southwards gradually – in the context of an existing downtrend. Price is now below the resistance level at 0.9350, going towards the support level at 0.9300 (which would be breached to the downside as the market goes further south).

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GBP/USD: Here, the pullback that happened on Monday and Tuesday has proven to be strong enough to threaten the existing bullish bias on the market. However, the bullish journey has continued and that put an end to the bearish threat. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and RSI period 14 is above the level 50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market – price would thus go upwards.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is currently consolidating in the context of a downtrend. The consolidation started at the beginning of this week, and it has held out so far. However, a breakout is imminent and it would most probably favor bears. So today or tomorrow, the accumulation territories at 108.50 and 108.00 could be tested soon.

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EUR/JPY: This market, which has been choppy for a few weeks (in the short-term), has started making a serious bullish effort. Once the supply level at 136.50 is overcome, the bias on the market will become bullish. Should this expectation fail to materialize, the choppiness in the market would continue.

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Global macro overview for 31/01/2018

Over the past few weeks, there has been a substantial change in the rhetoric of the US president, Donald Trump, who after the adoption of the tax reform by US Congress, decided to repeatedly display the achievements of its administration. One of the longest speeches about the state was a show of bragging evidence that Trump is on the road to the implementation of his electoral postulates - including the return of the US to the status of an international superpower.

In the first message, Donald Trump clearly limited the presence of quite sharp mentions that could divide not only American society, but also the Congressmen elected by them. The main reason for this is the attempt to push through a substantial infrastructure package, which, given the current state of public finances, should be seen as quite a challenge. Trump also draws attention to the inefficient immigration policy, which in his opinion is becoming obsolete. One of the "modern" solutions is the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico, the completion of which would result in almost a hundred percent recording of the flow of people from the south. It should be remembered that this type of move will have a long-term impact on the recorded growth rate. In the current situation the relatively inflexible production potential, the only hope for a gradual increase in wealth by the US remains a relatively open immigration policy. In that situation, Trump should consider easing his point of view regarding the US immigration rights soon.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked in a consolidation zone between the levels of 108.12 - 109.76 in oversold conditions. The momentum indicator is pointing upward, so a possibility of a relief rally towards the level of 110.00 increases. The larger time frame trend remains down.

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Global macro overview for 31/01/2018

The two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ends on Wednesday, January 31, with the publication of the interest rates decision at 07:00 pm GMT. The market consensus is to maintain the target for the federal reserves rate at 1.25-1.50% (no hike).

The US economic data since the December meeting was relatively positive, emphasizing maintaining a solid pace of recovery. Despite the fact that the increase in employment in December was below expectations, the still high rate (148k) made it possible to maintain the unemployment rate at a 17-year-old minimum of 4.1%. PCE Core inflation at 1.5% on a yearly basis is still below the Fed's inflation target of 2.0%, but the general trend is upward and long-term inflation expectations have started to rise. The preliminary GDP reading for the fourth quarter on the surface was weaker than expected (2.6% vs. 3.0%), but the key components were good: private consumption increased by 3.8% after 2.2% in the third quarter, and investments increased by 7.9%, versus 2.4% a quarter earlier). Net exports and a rebound of strong inventory growth in the third quarter were responsible for disappointment.

The development of the situation in the economy does not force significant changes in the communication on this topic (apart from leaving the fragment about the risks related to hurricanes). In the part concerning monetary policy, it is also difficult to expect surprises. In January there is no planned press conference, and this traditionally excludes the decision to change the level of interest rates, especially immediately after the December hike. What's more, the first meeting in 2018 is also the last of Janet Yellen as FOMC Chairperson. Her term of office ends on February 3, and her current board member, Fed Jerome Powell, takes her place. It would be a good idea to leave the new president a choice for monetary policy in the coming months.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market awaits the FOMC decision in a tight range between the level of 88.45( support) and 89.62 (resistance). The momentum indicator is at the neutral level but points to the downside. In a case of a rally higher, the next resistance is seen at the level of 90.11 and 90.98.

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 31, 2018

Bitcoin has been struggling to keep up with gains whereas the bears are more impulsive than the bulls. This kind of bearish momentum is expected to be a result of recent gloomy news, published about bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. Facebook has banned all kinds of ICO advertisements as Facebook thinks most of the ICOs are scam and created to cheat people. This kind of news was also a great blow for the cryptocurrencies market as well as the flagship bitcoin. Amid a lack of positive reports on bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies market, price is expected to face a challenge to hold above $10,000 price area within the range of $12,000. Nevertheless, some investors are still optimistic about a break above $12,000 which is expected to lead to $15,500 price area once again in the future. As the price remains above $10,000 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for January 31, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite corrective and volatile recently inside the range of 0.8050-0.8120 area. Ahead of the high impact economic reports of USD this week, the currency seemed to be quite weak against AUD today. Today, AUD CPI report was published unchanged at 0.6% which was expected to increase to 0.7%, Trimmed Mean CPI report also showed an unchanged report of 0.4% which was expected to increase to 0.5%, and Private Sector Credit decreased to 0.3% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. On the other hand, ahead of the high impact economic reports to be published on Friday, today, USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 186k from the previous figure of 250k, Employment Cost Index is expected to go down to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.7%, Chicago PMI report is expected to decrease to 64.2 from the previous figure of 67.6, Pending Home Sales report is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2%, and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to grow to 0.1M from the previous figure of -1.1M. Moreover, FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate report is going to be published today which is expected to be unchanged at 1.50%. As of the current scenario, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market due to high impact economic reports to be published on the USD side, and despite having worse economic reports, AUD gained momentum which also tells a different story about the USD weakness currently. If the USD economic reports comes better than expected, a bearish pressure is expected to hit the pair in the coming days with a strong momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is residing at the edge of the 0.8120 area from where it is expected to push lower towards 0.8050 and later towards 0.7750 in the future. Having Bearish Continuing Divergence in a non-volatile trend is indeed very interesting, and a break below 0.8050 will confirm impulsive bearish pressure later in the market. As the price remains below 0.8120 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 31, 2018

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 108.40. On a 30-minute chart, the pair marked a day-low of 108.38 yesterday (January 30) before posting a rebound. Currently, the pair is trading at levels around the ascending 20-period moving average, which has just crossed above the 50-period one. And the relative strength index has managed to stay above the neutrality level of 50, indicating a lack of downward momentum for the pair. As long as intraday bullishness is maintained, the pair should revisit 109.40 on the upside.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a Short position is recommended to be below 108.40 with a target of 109.20.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 108.40, take profit at 109.40.

Resistance levels: 109.05, 109.40, and 109.80

Support levels: 108.00, 107.60, and 107.30.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 31, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated an upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why the further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around the recent low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.

A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry is still expected.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).

S/L should be located above 0.7470. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150 and 0.7090.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 31, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2200 where recent evidence of the bearish rejection was expressed (Note the Monthly candlestick of last September).

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Daily Outlook

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

The daily persistence above 1.2150-1.2200 confirms a bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.

Otherwise, a bearish pullback may occur towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakout below 1.2160 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2018

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USD/CHF is under pressure. Despite the recent rebound from 0.9305, the pair is still capped by a declining 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is mixed with a bearish bias. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To sum up, as long as 0.9365 is not surpassed, look for a new drop with targets at 0.9290 and 0.9250 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9365, take profit at 0.9290.

Resistance levels: 0.9395, 0.9440, and 0.9500

Support levels: 0.9290, 0.9250, and 0.9200.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 31, 2018

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Our first upside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair turned bearish as the prices broke below the rising trend line. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is calling for a drop.

Therefore, below 154.45, look for a new decline with targets at 153.20 and 152.80 in extension

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a LONG position is recommended above 154.45 with the target at 155.

Strategy: SELL, Stop loss at 154.45, Take profit at 153.20

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 155.00, 155.85, and 156.35

Support levels: 153.20, 152.80, and 152.40.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 31, 2018

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All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair posted a rebound and broke above its 50-period moving average. In addition, the 50-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index stays above its neutrality level at 50.

To conclude, as long as 0.737 is not broken, look for a further bounce with targets at 0.7420 and 0.7445 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels, while the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7420, 0.7445, and 0.7490.

Support levels: 0.7260, 0.7245, and 0.7220.

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Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD for January 31, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite impulsive with declines today after certain indecision and correction below 1.24 price area. Despite recent upbeat economic reports, USD failed to sustain the gain over CAD which indicates severe weakness of USD in the coming days. Moreover, President Trump spoke recently about a tax rate reduction, so his speech is expected to have a good impact on the growth of the currency in the future. The US high impact economic reports like NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate report are to be published on Friday. Today, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is due which is expected decrease to 186k from the previous figure of 250k, Employment Cost Index is expected to decrease to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.7%, Chicago PMI report is expected to decrease to 64.2 from the previous figure of 67.6, Pending Home Sales report is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2%, and Crude Oil Inventories are expected to increase to 0.1M from the previous figure of -1.1M. Moreover, FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate report is going to be released today which is expected to be unchanged at 1.50%. On the other hand, today Canada's GDP report is expected to show an increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%, RMPI is expected to decrease to -2.2% from the previous value of 5.5%, and IPPI report is expected to decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 1.4%. As for the current scenario, the economic reports from the US and Canada are expected to reveal mixed results. Amid high impact economic reports which are due today, a good amount of volatility is setting the tone on the market this week. Though CAD is leading with the better gains and momentum, certain spikes may lead to a short-term counter trend move in this pair along the way towards 1.21 support area.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is holding below the 1.24 resistance area and dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates the strength of the bears in the pair. Besides, the price is currently proceeding lower with an impulsive bearish pressure which is expected to reach 1.21 support area in the coming days. Though certain correction and volatility can be observed along the way but as the price remains below 1.24 price area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Trading plan 31/01/2018

The trading plan 01/31/2018

The general picture: There is a corrective mood in the market.

The long-awaited correction began in the US stock market.

This was triggered perhaps by too rigid statements of Trump addressed to China during the annual speech in Congress. Yet, China is a very important "partner" for the U.S. economy, unlike Russia.

But, this is not an excuse. The correction has developed a very long time.

In the coming days, the market expects a package of critical data, including the decision of the Fed today and the report on employment in the U.S. on Friday.

Sharp movements are possible in both directions.

Pound:

Purchases are possible from the level of 1.3930.

Sales are possible from the level of 1.4380.

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Bitcoin analysis for 31/01/2018

The American government institute found in official research on cryptocurrency that Bitcoin Cash is the original Bitcoin, while Bitcoin itself is a fork. In the document entitled "Blockchain Technology Overview" at the National Institute of Standards and Technology at the US Department of Commerce, the authors Dylan Yaga, Peter Mell, Nik Roby, and Karen Scarfone argue that on the technical side, Bitcoin Cash is the original version of Bitcoin: Activation of SegWit resulted in the creation of a hard fork, and users who did not want to change began to call the original Bitcoin - Bitcoin Cash. From a technical point of view, Bitcoin is a fork, and Bitcoin Cash is the original Blockchain. When the hard fork happened, people had access to the same amount of coins in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.

The document seems to be interesting for reading at a time when the cryptocurrency industry is flooded with propaganda and marketing activities of both BCH and BTC representatives. The confusion of new Bitcoin users has increased after the July hard fork. Recently, there have been two scandals related to Bitcoin Cash, CNBC's main news channel and the main US stock exchange Coinbase, which has even chewed the reputation of BCH. The US government document, however, seems to be unmoved by both the events and the nature of the bitcoin bucket.

Litecoin, as the authors say, is a "Bitcoin supplement", while Ethereum Classic is underlined as the original version of the more popular Ethereum. Last week, the Weiss rating agency caused a stir when it delivered its first cryptocurrencies, giving Ethereum "B" and Bitcoin "C +" (in the US equivalent of grades 4 and 3+, respectively).

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market fell out of the channel and tried to test the technical support at the level of $9,151, but so far made only a local low at the level of $9,300. Currently, the price is trying to bounce back towards the level of $10.693, which would indicate a return to the consolidation zone.

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Trading plan for 31/01/2018

Donald Trump's overnight statement did not ensure a solid reshuffling of the sentiment on the currency market. The New Zealand Dollar is the strongest currency, which, due to data coming from China and Australia, places the NZD / USD rate around 0.7380. In his shadow, there is a pound sterling (0.4%) with a notable indication of the consumer mood index according to GfK. In view of the weakness of the Dollar, the Japanese Yen (0.1%) passed by, which was under pressure to increase Bank of Japan purchase of medium-term government bonds.

On Wednesday 31st of January, the event calendar is busy in important data releases, but the news of the day will be FOMC Interest Rate decision in the evening. Nevertheless, the market participants should keep an eye on Retail Sales, Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate data from Germany, Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate from Eurozone, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Pending Home Sales, Chicago Purchasing Manager Index and Employment Cost Index data from the US and Gross Domestic Product data from Canada.

EUR/USD analysis for 31/01/2018:

The Wednesday session can be treated as a quite interesting performance with a well-known ending. In this case, the Fed's decision in the evening on the monetary policy framework will be the most important event. Currently, the chance of a rate hike by another 25 bps oscillates at the verge of statistical error, which allows investors to attach even greater importance to the policy statement. Yesterday's disappointment with the December consumer price dynamics from Germany contributed to the lowering of market expectations for HICP inflation from Euroland to 1.3% (previously: 1.4 %). Investors' attention will also be drawn to the ADP report, which, according to the expectations of market participants, should indicate a change in employment of 185,000.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has bounced from the local support at the level of 1.2387 and currently is trading just above the 61% Fibo retracements of the previous swing down. The momentum is still above its fifty level, so there is a chance for another test of the local resistance at the level of 1.2493.

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Market Snapshot: SPY starts the correction?

The price of SPY (SP500 ETF) has started a corrective move down towards the technical support at the level of 280.10. The market has gapped down below 21 and 50 periods moving averages and so far is not looking back. The momentum looks weak (below its fifty level) and the market conditions are slowly become oversold.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD still going lower

The price of USD/CAD keeps breaking the potential resistance as the new local lows are being made despite the oversold conditions and growing bullish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator. In a case of worse than expected data from Canada today, the next important technical support on a daily time frame is seen at the level of 1.2140.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for January 31, 2018

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend. Price got rejected at 89.60. Price is mainly moving sideways between 89.60 and 88.50. The Dollar index will most probably make a new lower low towards 88-87.50, but I believe this low should be faded. The FOMC tonight could give the Dollar index the final push lower.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Black rectangle - resistance

The Dollar index remains in a clear bearish trend. Price is below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators inside the bearish channel. Resistance is at 89.60 and support at 88.50. Bulls need to break above 89.60-89.75 in order to hope for a bigger bounce. Bears are still in control looking for a final low near 87.50-88.30.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Blue line -long-term resistance

On a daily basis the Dollar index remains firmly in a bearish trend. Even a bounce towards 93 would not change the Daily trend. First resistance level is at 89.60. A daily close above it will push price towards 91. Break above 91 and we should see price test the Daily Kumo (cloud). I'm waiting for trend reversal soon. Downside is limited.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for January 31, 2018

Gold price remains near the monthly highs. Price got rejected at the long-term resistance of $1,350 however there is no confirmed reversal here yet. A rejection at the long-term resistance could start a new downward move back below $1,300, if however price manages to recapture the $1,350-55 level, we should expect the resumption of the up trend towards $1,390.

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In the 4-hour chart Gold price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud and is trying to climb back up. Resistance is at $1,350. Break above it and Gold will be most probably going for new highs in 2018 towards $1,380-90. Support is at $1,334. Break below it and we could be heading towards $1,320-$1,300.

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On a daily basis, Gold price got rejected at the long-term resistance and has closed below the tenkan-sen. This implies that as long as we are trading below $1,346 we should be going towards the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at $1,321. Break below it and we go towards the cloud at $1,300-$1,290.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2018

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Overview:

  • Pivot point: 0.9333.
  • The USD/CHF pair continues to trade downwards from the level of 0.9377 this week. The price of 0.9377 represents the first resistance on the H1 chart. The pair fell from the level of 0.9377 to the bottom around 0.9393. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9377 followed by 0.9432, while daily support is seen at the levels of 0.9289 and 0.9230. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still trapping between the levels of 0.9377 and 0.9230. Hence, we expect a range of 147 pips in the coming hours. The first resistance stands at 0.6790, for that if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9377, the market will decline further to 0.9289. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9230 in order to test the second support (0.9230). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9432 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Burning Forecast 01/31/2018

Burning Forecast 01/31/2018

EURUSD: trade for a breakthrough.

Today, the main event of the week is the decision of the Federal Reserve on Monetary Policy, at 18.00 London time.

There may be surprises: the Fed's tougher statement on inflation could cause a strong strengthening of the dollar (correctional, but strong).

We prepare an order for the breakthrough of the local range for the euro:

We buy from 1.2455, stop at 1.2410, the target is 1.2540.

Sell from 1.2330, stop at 1.2375, the target is 1.2230.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 31, 2018

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes to my technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term, testing 0.7557 or higher. The price is set at the pivot point of 0.7391 currently. On the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair continued moving upwards from the level of 0.7260 (golden ratio). The pair rose from the level of 0.7260 (weekly support) to the top around 0.7400. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.7260 followed by 0.7168, while daily resistance is seen at 0.7465. The weekly pivot point lies at the point of 0.7391. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7391 and 0.7465; for that we expect a range of 74 pips in coming hours. This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7465, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7557) to test it. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.7260, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the price of 0.7168.
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Global macro overview for 30/01/2018

Eurozone data for fourth quarter of 2017 remain solid as they are led by strong German data. Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP posted a respectable gain of 0.6%, unchanged from the Q3 release. On the yearly basis, the GDP was as well in line with expectations at the level of 2.6% Nevertheless, the market participants are expecting some weak consumer numbers out of Germany this week (Preliminary CPI is expected to contract 0.5% and Retails Sales are expected at the level of -0.4% tomorrow), which could hurt investor confidence and send the European stock indices downwards. If the markets prove accurate and these indicators do point downwards, investors will be hoping that they are only a temporary dip, as the eurozone and German consumer numbers have generally been strong so far. The other concern is the appreciating Euro, which is still climbing higher towards the level 1.2500. This level of exchange rate might start to hurt the exporters soon and affect company earnings.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has finished a three wave corrective structure at the level of 1.2335 and rallied towards the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.2435.The momentum is clearly increasing, so if the pace of rally will sustain, then the price might even start to test the level of 1.2495 before the market conditions become overbought.

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Global macro overview for 30/01/2018

USD slowly began to retrace last week's sell-off from the three-year lows. Although the last phase of the sale of the American currency can be seen in terms of overshooting and a clear detachment from fundamentals or fair value based on the relative valuation of assets, the road from reversing the negative trend is very far away.

The tonight's appearance of the US President Donald Trump 02:00 am GMT may be crucial for the US Dollar future. The US administration has aroused much controversy with recent comments regarding the strength of the currency. Milk has spilled and a radical change in the rhetoric that has been known for years will not be easily removed from the awareness of market participants. The future of the NAFTA agreement and, more broadly, trade policy is also a lot of emotions. The chaos of Trump's presidency has obviously injured the Dollar and made the fundamentals forgotten. Sentiment towards the American currency is so bad that investors will try to use every rebate to sell it. A few days ago (in Davos), the President of the United States amazed showing a rather restrained face. In his own country, in the context of the upcoming November elections and fatal quotations, he may reach for proven means or an acute, protectionist rhetoric known from the time of the election campaign. In that situation, the US Dollar might again weaken across the board.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index at the H4 time frame. The market tried two times to break through the technical resistance at the level of 89.62 but failed. Currently, the price is reversing towards the nearest technical support at the level of 88.45 and due to the weak momentum, the breakout lower is still possible.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for January 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating into potential wave 4 and will push higher one last time or it is preparing to drop into 1.2200 handle and produce the first leg lower, heading into much deeper correction. Interim resistance is seen at 1.2537 levels for now while support comes in around the 1.2200 handle. Going with the current counts, selling on rallies is the preferred strategy. It is still not absolutely confirmed about a major top in place yet but a break below 1.1900 levels would certainly confirm the same. Keeping the bigger picture in mind, a push towards 1.2600/50 levels still remain a probability but immediate price action is expected towards 1.2240 levels.

Trading plan:

Selling on rallies with risk above 1.2537 levels is a preferred strategy.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index is also looking to pose a rally towards 90.00/91.00 levels at least. Please note that it is still not confirmed that the index has formed a major bottom but a high probability remains for the same and a break above 92.50 levels would certainly indicate that a bottom is in place now. High probability wave counts suggests that buying on dips is a safe and favored trading strategy going ahead. Please keep the bigger picture in mind that US Dollar Index has nearly completed 5 waves down since January 2017 highs from 103.80 levels. This indicates a high probability 3 waves counter trend rally to resume any moment that can push prices towards 95.00 and 98.00 levels respectively. Interim support is at 88.40 levels while resistance is at 91.00 for now.

Trading plan:

Remain long with risk below 88.40 levels for now.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for EUR consumer price index in next few minutes and USD Consumer confidence in the next 02 hours

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 30, 2018

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The pair remains under pressure below its major horizontal resistance at 109.00, and it is likely to post a new pullback. The 50-period moving average is heading downward, and it should continue to push the prices lower. In addition, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies, as investors took profits on dollar short positions in face of the rallying U.S. bond yields. At the same time, they are watching closely the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and the January jobs report due later this week.

In which case, as long as 109.00 holds on the upside, look for further decline to 108.25 and 108.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a LONG position is recommended to be above 109.00 with a target of 109.20.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 109.00, take profit at 108.25.

Resistance levels: 109.20, 109.50, and 110.15

Support levels: 108.25, 108.00, and 107.50.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 30, 2018

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USD/CHF is under pressure. The pair is now heading downward, and it is likely to challenge its next support at 0.9290. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are still on the downside, which should confirm a negative outlook. Last but not least, the relative strength index is below its neutrality area at 50.

To conclude, as long as the resistance at 0.9375 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.9290 remains high.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9375, take profit at 0.9290.

Resistance levels: 0.9395, 0.9440, and 0.9500

Support levels: 0.9290, 0.9250, and 0.9200.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 30, 2018

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All our targets which we predicted in the previous analysis were hit. GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair bounced off its key horizontal support at 152.55, and it is expected to challenge the next resistance at 154.00. The 50-period moving average is heading upward, and it should continue to push the prices higher. In addition, the relative strength index is above its neutrality area at 50.

Hence, as long as 152.55 holds on the downside, it is likely to advance to 152.55 and 154.50 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a LONG position is recommended to be above 154.40 with the target at 155.

Strategy: BUY, Stop loss at 152.55, Take profit at 154.00

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 154.00, 154.50, and 155.00.

Support levels: 152.00, 151.40, and 151.00.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 30, 2018

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 0.7280. The pair is consolidating above its key support at 0.7280, which should maintain the buying interest. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50. Even though a continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To conclude, as long as 0.7280 holds on the downside, a further rebound to 0.7360 and even to 0.7375 seems more likely to occur.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels, while the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7360, 0.7375, and 0.7400.

Support levels: 0.7260, 0.7245, and 0.7220.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 30, 2018

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9377, which represents the first resistance on the H1 chart. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9377 to the bottom around 0.9393. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9377 followed by 0.9432, while daily support is seen at the levels of 0.9289 and 0.9230. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still trapping between the levels of 0.9377 and 0.9230. Hence, we expect a range of 147 pips in the coming hours. The first resistance stands at 0.6790, for that if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9377, the market will decline further to 0.9289. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9230 in order to test the second support (0.9230). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9432 (R2), then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 30, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2200 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the Monthly candlestick of last September).

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Daily Outlook

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

The bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, in November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered a further decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

Daily persistence above 1.2150-1.2200 confirms a bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.

Otherwise, a pullback may occur towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakout below 1.2160 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 30, 2018

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Overview:

  • The pivot of NZD/USD pair is seen at the point of 0.7391. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.7557 or higher. On the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair continued moving upwards from the level of 0.7260 (golden ratio). The pair rose from the level of 0.7260 (weekly support) to the top around 0.7400. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.7260 followed by 0.7168, while daily resistance is seen at 0.7465. The weekly pivot point is seen at the point of 0.7391. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7391 and 0.7465; for that we expect a range of 74 pips in coming hours. This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7465, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7557) to test it. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.7260, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the second support of 0.7170.
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 30, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.

A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry is still expected.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).

S/L should be located above 0.7450. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150 and 0.7090.

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GBP/USD analysis for January 30, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3979. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a bullish breakout of the supply trendline (resistance), which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator and a fake breakout of yesterday's low, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.4092 and at the price of 1.4150.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4148

R2: 1.4220

R3: 1.4280

Support levels:

S1: 1.4015

S2: 1.3950

S3: 1.3880

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 30, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $10.873. The current cryptocurrency investments ecosystem is one of the purest forms of a free market in economic history. This gives rise to an incredible growth which makes some people overnight fortunes and allows startups to flourish like never before. Unfortunately, it also puts the burden on investors to vet the teams, ideas, and capabilities before getting involved with any ICO. Technical picture on Bitcoin looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30 time - frame, I found a broken bearish pennant formation, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $10.755, $10.275 and at the price of $9.860.

Support/Resistance

$11.102 – Intraday resistance

$10.758 – Intraday support

$10.275 – Objective target 1

$9.860 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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EUR/USD analysis for January 30, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2334. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a bullish breakout of supply trendline (resistance), which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.2430 and at the price of 1.2490.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2430

R2: 1.2480

R3: 1.2527

Support levels:

S1: 1.2335

S2: 1.2290

S3: 1.2240

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for 30/01/2018

Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, the main strategist of many assets in BlackRock, a $ 5.7 billion asset management corporation, said the company was working on a thorough cryptocurrency assessment. In an interview, for Bloomberg TV on Monday, 29 January, the CEO said that although cryptocurrency is not currently an "asset-able" investment, it actively follows progress because it "evolves very quickly." Larry Fink, who last week appeared at the World Economic Forum 2018, described space as a "money laundering rate" and said he was not planning to enter the future ETF Bitcoin arena. Although the dust settled on the Japanese Coincheck stock market after stealing $ 530 million, Mateos Y Lago sees no reason to completely reject the cryptocurrency investment: "It is a fact that interest persisted despite repetitive attacks.|- she continued, describing the demand of Bitcoin customers in BlackRock.

By adopting the perspective "not now, but maybe later" on the interaction, BlackRock reflects the mood of the head of Deutsche Bank, Markus Mueller, who also told Bloomberg that the crypto market is for speculative investors, and for the next five to ten years he should follow the regulations, allowing treating it as an "established class of assets".

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still consolidation around the weekly pivot at the level of $11,143 and the channel is still being well maintained. The key technical support remains at the level of $9,151 and the key technical resistance for the short-term traders is seen at the level of $12,737.

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Trading plan for 30/01/2018

The Asian part of Tuesday's listing is marked by a further strengthening of the US Dollar, which is strongly opposed by the Japanese Yen (0.2%), due to excellent retail sales data for December (0.9% m / m, consensus: -0.4%.). The above fact is not favorable for investors in Tokyo, where the Nikkei 225 index valuation is -1.4% under water.

On Tuesday, January 30th, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Net Lending to Individuals data from the UK, Preliminary GDP data from France, Preliminary CPI data from Germany, and Flash GDP data form the whole Eurozone. During the US session, the biggest news will be CB Consumer Confidence release in the afternoon.

USD/JPY analysis for 30/01/2018:

The Retail Sales data from Japan has beat the estimates significantly. The market participants expected -0.4% drop on a monthly basis, but the figures were at the level of 0.9%. On the yearly basis, the sales jumped from 2.1% to 3.6%, which is a significant improvement as well. Retail Sales are a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, that confirms signals from consumer confidence and may spark inflationary pressures. The recent jump in spending will for sure be noticed by the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The initial positive market reaction to the data was quickly faded, and the price returned to the consolidation zone. Now, the nearest technical support at the level of 108.27 is the key level to the downside. The weak momentum supports the bearish outlook.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD Double Bottom?

The price of USD/CAD has made a possible Double Bottom formation at the H4 time frame chart at the level of 1.2290. Any breakout above the level of 1.2396 will be the first confirmation of the bottom. The growing momentum and rising stochastic oscillator support the bullish view.

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Market Snapshot: Gold falls out of the channel

The price of Gold has fallen out of the channel and broken the level of $1,344 which was acting as a technical support. Currently, the price is getting closer to the technical support at the level of $1,331 in somewhat oversold market conditions.

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