Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 20, 2018

GBP/JPY is under pressure and expected to continue the downside movement. The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 151.70. The declining 50-period moving average is playing a resistance role. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50. Therefore, below 151.70, look for another decline with targets at 150.65 and 150.00 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.00, 152.60, and 153.15

Support levels: 150.65, 150.00, and 149.50.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 20, 2018

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit, NZD/USD is still under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair accelerated on the downside along the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index has broken down its oversold level at 30. Hence, below 0.7260, look for a further drop with targets at 0.7175 and 0.7150 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7275, 0.7290, and 0.7335

Support levels: 0.7175, 0.7150, and 0.7100.

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Global macro overview for 20/04/2018

Some pretty decent pack of macroeconomic data from the US was published recently. Weekly unemployment fell to 232k applications (versus estimated 230k), and Philly FED Manufacturing Index rose to 23.2 points in April instead of falling by 20.1 points from a high of 22.3 points last month. Index of leading indicators in the economy (US Conference Board Index ) for March fell as expected (0.3%).

The balance of the week for the US Dollar starts to look quite good - Friday is the fourth consecutive day increase in the US Dollar Index and the strengthening of the dollar can also be seen today in the broad market. The rising yields of US bonds are starting to support, which may be the result of a growing conviction that FED members may be leaning towards 4 interest rate hikes this year if they are given pretexts in the form of good macroeconomic data in the coming months. Noteworthy in this respect were the words of William Dudley from the FED branch in New York, which in a nutshell indicated that the FED should consistently do its work by bringing interest rates relatively quickly to the neutral level. Nevertheless, the dollar will need a stronger reason to be resisted by significant resistance, and May may be planned for May on key US data (ISM indices and Labor Department readings), although in the coming week the dollar may be stronger due to weakness of other currencies - the euro, pound and possibly also yen.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken through the technical resistance at the level of 89.96 (now support) and it looks like is heading towards the next technical resistance at the level of 90.29. The strong momentum and positive stochastic indicators are supporting the short-term bullish outlook.

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Global macro overview for 20/04/2018

Yesterday evening, the British pound marked a strong sell-off, as the market was scared of a cautious tone in an interview with the president of the Bank of England Mark Carney, which was perceived as a reduction in chances for interest rate hike at the May meeting. However, a detailed analysis of his interview suggests to me more optimism in relation to the future BoE policy, and consequently to the pound.

Carney stated in an interview that the interest rate increase is "probable later this year". There was no exclusion of the May deadline, but also confirmation because Carney stated that "the decision is not a foregone conclusion". But that was enough to include panic mode among the owners of long positions in the pound.

The Bank of England is not in the habit of announcing his decisions, and three weeks before the meeting, Carney tried to be as flexible as possible. He added that there are "other meetings" by the end of the year, but the Council "will look at everything around" in this situation, including Brexit and the given situation. In the latter matter, Carney remarked that there is nothing to draw a hasty conclusion from the one-off weakness of readings. I would also like to mention investors in the GBP market, because in three weeks it may turn out that yesterday's panic was unfounded, and Carney only wanted to verbally slow down the appreciation of the currency (which central banks usually do not like). Today, noteworthy will be the speech of M. Saunders of BoE - it is one of the two members of the Council, who wanted to raise last month. I doubt Saunders will suddenly change his hawkish views, so a confirmation can support the pound. For now, however, the valuation of the May hike has undergone a solid search and now the market sees a 50:50 chance against 90%. at the beginning of the week.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the technical support at the level of 151.17 and made a new local low at 150.96 despite the oversold market conditions. The momentum is still pointing to the downside, so as long as the level of 152.01 is not clearly violated, another slide down towards the level of 150.64 is expected.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 20, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $8,315. The European Parliament has voted in favor of stricter regulations in the crypto sector. Crypto exchanges and wallet providers will be required to introduce customer due diligence procedures, including identity verification. The platforms will have to apply for registration in order to offer their services. The new measures come with the latest update of the EU Anti-Money Laundering Directive.Technical picture on Bitcoin looks neutral to bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time frame, I found broken flat base and falling wedge in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a head and shoulders failure pattern, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $8,875.

Support/Resistance

$8,348 – Intraday resistance

$8,125– Intraday support

$8,875 – Objective target

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GBP/USD analysis for April 20, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.4035. According to the M30 time frame, I found strong supply on the market, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found today a successful rejection of the resistance at the price of 1.4068, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.3980.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4195

R2: 1.4310

R3: 1.4373

Support levels:

S1: 1.4018

S2: 1.3955

S3: 1.3840

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for April 20, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,339.00. According to the M30 time – frame, I found a breakout of upward channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,333.40 and at the price of $1,324.50 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,353.15

R2: $1,360.85

R3: $1,366.95

Support levels:

S1: $1,339.35

S2: $1,333.26

S3: $1,325.57

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 20, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite steady and slow with the bullish gains recently which is expected to push the price to breach above $8,500 in the coming days. The price is currently residing above $8,200 area from where it is expected to proceed higher with a target towards $10,000 price area. The slow and steady progress is a good sign for the Bitcoin as this explains the scenario of increasing market participants along the way. After the price bounced off the $6,500 area, the bullish pressure has been non-volatile. If the price remains with constant pressure, a breakout above $8,500 and proceeding towards $10,000 will be easier. As the price remains above $7,000 with a daily close amid lack of fundamental news to impact the Bitcoin gains in the process, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for April 20, 2018

AUD/JPY recently gained bearish momentum in the middle of the price range of 82.00 to 84.50 from where the price is currently expected to have bearish pressure in the nearest days. Recently, AUD Employment Change report was published with an increase to 4.9k from the previous negative figure of -6.3k but it failed to meet the expectation of 20.3k and Unemployment Rate was also published unchanged at 5.5%. As AUD missed the expectation of a significant increase in Employment Change, this had a great impact on the gains of AUD against JPY, leading to impulsive bearish pressure with a daily close yesterday. Today, Japan's National Core CPI report was published with a slight decrease to 0.9% as expected from the previous value of 1.0% and Tertiary Industry Activity also rose to 0.0% from the previous figure of -0.4% but failed to meet the expectation of 0.1%. Due to mixed readings, JPY was unable to provide much pressure over AUD today which lead to certain indecision in the pair currently. As for the current scenario, JPY is expected to sustain its bearish gains over AUD whereas certain correction and volatility may be observed along the way. Until AUD comes up with a better economic report to counter the bearish pressure, JPY is expected to have an upper hand over AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is currently holding the price as support in the mid-range between 82.00 to 84.50 area. The impulsive bearish pressure had a greater impact on the recent price action where bears have engulfed the previous consolidation with a daily close yesterday. As the price remains below 84.50 with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for April 20, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite non-volatile and impulsive with the bullish gains recently. As a result, the price is holding above 0.97 area that is expected to proceed much higher in the coming days. Though USD is struggling to sustain its gains against other major currencies in the market, it has been dominating CHF since the price broke above 0.9250 area. This week, Switzerland's PPI report was published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to increase to 0.4%. The downbeat economic report helped USD to be more impulsive with the bullish gains and dominate CHF further in a non-volatile structure. On the other hand, USD has been quite positive with the economic reports recently like Building Permits report increasing to 1.35M from the previous figure of 1.32M and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report showed an increase to 23.2 from the previous figure of 22.3. Today, FOMC Member Williams is going to speak about the economic development, interest rates and monetary policy which is expected to have a neutral impact on the pair for the nearest days. As for the current scenario, USD is expected to strengthen its gains further against CHF in the coming days until CHF comes up with better economic reports to counter the impulsive bullish pressure in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been non-volatile with the bullish gains residing and respecting dynamic level of 20 EMA since it broke above 0.9450 area. The bullish momentum is currently quite strong in nature and certain retracement along the way will not impact the bullish bias in the market. As the price remains above 0.9450 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected.

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Trading plan 04/20/2018

Trading plan 04/20/2018

The overall picture: A turn toward the dollar.

News on the US economy came out strong on Thursday: US unemployment claims came in at low levels, the labor market is strong; Philadelphia's business activity index is higher than forecast.

At the same time in Europe: new contradictions in the EU-Britain Brexit negotiations. In Germany, there is a decline in business confidence, including on problems with business with Russia because of US sanctions.

And then the head of the Bank of England declares that the regulator will not raise the rate - because of a slowdown in inflation.

The pound declined sharply three days. It is very likely that the trend of pound growth is completed.

Pound: trading range.

Sell from 1.4180.

Buy from 1.3700.

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Burning forecast 04/20/2018

Burning forecast 04/20/2018

EURUSD: Trade at the breakout of the range.

The overall picture of the market confused the pound. The euro seemed to be ready to finally come out of the range. And at this point the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney states that the interest rate will probably not be increased. The reason is that inflation data came out below forecasts.

The pound declined sharply within three days. Together with the pound, the Australian dollar fell. And they were able to stop the growth of the euro.

Nevertheless, the euro range has not yet been broken. In the moment, a breakthrough downward looks more likely now.

Sell for the breakthrough of 1.2295, stop at 1.2340, profit at 1.2000.

Alternative: buy for the breakthrough of 1.2415, stop at 1.2370, profit at 1.2680.

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Daily analysis of Gold for April 20, 2018

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Overview

Gold price is showing a calm decline to test the key support of 1,335.40, accompanied by stochastic reach of the oversold areas. This provides positive impetus that is expected to push the price to rise again and resume the main bullish trend. Therefore, the bullish trend will remain valid for the nearest sessions, conditioned by the price stability above the mentioned support. Please note that our positive targets begin at 1,365.97 and extend to 1,400.00 after breaching the previous level. The expected trading range for today is between 1,330.00 support and 1,360.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 20, 2018

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Overview

Silver price apoprached our first upward target at 17.43, showing sideways trading now that is affected by stochastic weaker momentum. However, the EMA50 is still supporting the price from below, which keeps the chances valid to continue the rise in the short term. Therefore, we still suggest the bullish trend unless breaking 16.56 level and holding below it. Please note that breaching 17.43 will extend silver price gains to reach 18.30 as the next station. The expected trading range for today is between 17.00 support and 17.43 resistance.

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Bitcoin analysis for 20/04/2018

Amazon Technologies, Inc. - a subsidiary of the American giant of e-commerce and cloud computing Amazon.com, has obtained a patent for the market offering data channels. More importantly, the patented market includes Bitcoin transactions. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office approved the Amazon Technologies application for a patent on the streaming data market. This patent was originally filed in September 2014 and relates twice to BTC transaction.

This is how it works: a group of electronic or internet sellers accepting Bitcoin transactions may have a shipping address that may correlate with the BTC address. Electronic sellers can combine the shipping address with Bitcoin transaction data to create correlated data and republish the combined data as a merged data stream. A group of telecommunications service providers can subscribe to combined data streams and be able to link the transaction IP address to countries of origin. Government agencies may be able to subscribe to tax data and correlate it with tax transactions to help identify the participants in the transaction. The second example describes how a law enforcement agency might be interested in Bitcoin's global transactional data to correlate the addresses of bitcoin portfolios with IP addresses or physical addresses: For example, a law enforcement agency may be a customer and may want to receive global Bitcoin transactions, correlated by country with the ISP's data to determine the source IP addresses and shipping addresses that correlate with BTC addresses. The Agency may not want additional available improvements, such as local bank records. For example, the streaming data market can price the desired data on GB, and the agency can start analyzing the data needed using the analysis module.

Whether or not Amazon's plans are good or not will not be verified. Nevertheless, it can be a huge step forward for global Bitcoin payments implementation

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market is now in wave b cycle of the corrective wave (2)/b, which should end at the level of $7,442. There is a possibility that the wave (2)/b had been completed already at the level of $7,722, but it would have been very short in price and time. The key level to the upside is the recent swing high at the level of $8,355. If broken, then the market will likely rally towards the next technical resistance at the level of $9,134.

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Trading plan for 20/04/2018

The currency market in Asia produced a rather calm session. USD/JPY is trying to come out of consolidation, the pressure is affecting currency from Antipodes. The pound can not rise after the blow from the president of BoE Carney. The stock market is in a correction following Wall Street. China's indexes are adjusting their latest strength, Shanghai Composite is down 1.6% and Hang Seng is down 0.6%. The weaker climate came from Wall Street, where the SP500 lost 0.57%.

On Friday 20th of April, the event calendar is light in the important data release. The main event of the day would be the Canadian data release in the form of CPI, Core Retail Sales, Trimmed CPI data. It is worth to notice that there is IMF Metting during the whole day as well.

GBP/USD analysis for 20/04/2018:

The pound broke down after the comments by the president of the Bank of England Mark Carney hit the financial newswires.Carney said in a BBC interview last night said that the interest rate will take "probably" place this year, but any hikes will be gradual. He added that the remaining Brexit decisions to take will determine the rate of increase. Carney's words were perceived as a more dovish position than his earlier statements, which sent GBP/USD down by a whole figure down to 1.4080.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is dropping heavily this morning despite the oversold conditions. The 61% Fibo support had been violated, so the current slide down is the biggest correction in the whole upward swing. The technical support at the level of 1.4098 has been violated as well, so now it will act as the nearest resistance for the price. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.4000 (round psychological level) and 1.3982 - 1.3965 zone. The chances that the short-term down trend will reverse by the end of the week are very low.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 20, 2018

The Dollar index is challenging the important short-term cloud resistance and upper cloud boundary at 90. If bulls manage to break above the cloud and stay above it, they will have made a first step towards trend reversal. Bears continue to remain under control of the trend but they will need to defend short-term resistance area 90-90.30 and the April high at 90.60.

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Black line - important medium-term support

The reversal off the 89.30 area on Tuesday was an important bullish reversal pattern that fortunately for bulls has follow through. Price has broken initially above the tankan- and kijun-sen while now bulls try to break above the cloud. The most important resistance is the 90 level and the 90.60 high. Breaking above these levels will be constructive and will most probably push the index at least towards 91.70. Bears on the other hand want to see price break back below the cloud support at 89.70. As long as we hold above 89.70 I would not be bearish.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 20, 2018

Gold price is testing short-term support at $1,338-40 area. Price remains inside the multi week trading range of $1,300-$1,365. Gold made a double top at $1,355 and reversed back down canceling the breakout above $1,351 earlier this week.

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Red lines - trading range

Black line - short-term support

Gold price is trading around the 4hour Ichimoku cloud. There is a positive slope in the current move from March lows but we have also see three rejections around the $1,355-65 area. The second rejection was the most severe one as price reached $1,365 and could not even see a 4 hour close above $1,356. If price breaks below the cloud support again at $1,340 bears will want to break the black trend line at $1,338 in order for a push lower towards $1,320-$1,310. Bulls need to retake $1,355-60 and eventually break above this area for $1,400-$1,430.

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Burning forecast 04/19/2018

Burning forecast 04/19/2018

The EURUSD is preparing a breakout range.

The main event of the last day (Wednesday) is the report of the Fed Beige Book. As usual, 14 days before the Fed meeting, a report on the state of the economy is published based on the collection of reports from 13 regional banks of the Federal Reserve System (FRS).

All reports show growth, but moderate. The main thing - most of the regions are concerned about the possible slowdown due to the trade war of Trump-China. Regions of the United States are all concerned about the possible introduction of new duties and problems for business.

This is a good signal - Trump's new plans will meet with harsh criticism in the US itself, not to mention the resistance of China. Consequently, we can consider the risks of the trade war to be decreasing.

Markets are ready to continue growing - and the dollar is likely to fall.

EURUSD:

Buy for the breakthrough 1.2415, stop at 1.2370, profit at 1.2680.

Alternative: Sell from 1.2295, stop at 1.2340, profit at 1.2000

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Daily analysis of Gold for April 19, 2018

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Overview

The gold price traded upwards yesterday and has settled near 1,350.00 levels now, supported by the EMA 50. To see if the price keeps the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions, we are waiting for the test of the previously recorded top at 1,365.97 as the next station. We remind you that a breach of the mentioned level will extend the gold price gains to 1,400.00 as the next main target, while the expected rise will remain valid unless breaking and holding below 1,335.40 levels. The expected trading range for today is between the 1,340.00 support and the 1,365.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 19, 2018

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Overview

The silver price rallied upwards strongly yesterday, breaching and settling above 16.80 levels. It ended the sideways trading that started in early February. The way towards positive targets that start at 17.43 is open now. Therefore, the bullish trend is expected in the upcoming sessions conditioned by the price stability above 16.80 and 16.56. A breach of the targeted level will extend silver price gains to 18.30 as the next main station. The expected trading range for today is between the 17.00 support and the 17.43 resistance.

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