EUR / USD pair on July 19. The second speech of Powell supported Eurocurrency

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b503d8db3fe5.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 46p - 74p - 49p - 96p - 63p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 66p (71p).

On Wednesday morning of July 18, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to move down, but the second speech by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, caused a reduction in "dollar" positions in the afternoon. This time, Powell reported nothing negative. He only noted that the process of normalizing the balance of the Fed can take 3-4 years. Much or little, it's hard to say, given the fact that this balance has been accumulating for 10 years. Powell also said that the number of assets on the balance sheet of the Fed should return to the value "which should be", and expressed the hope that over time, only US Treasuries will remain on the balance sheet.

Also in the morning, the consumer price index was published in the Eurozone. In annual terms, this figure was 2.0%, which fully met the expectations of the market. In monthly terms, inflation slowed to 0.9%. In principle, this report turned out to be neutral and did not cause a stormy reaction of traders. Toward evening, the so-called "Beige Book" was published. Most economic districts noted moderate economic growth and wage growth. However, this information also did not cause a special reaction to the market. The volatility of the instrument declined, but the downward trend persisted. Further perspectives of the US dollar still look much more convincing than Euro-currencies.

However, the issue of the trade war remains on the agenda. This theme has come off the front pages in recent days, but we are only at the very beginning of this epic, which, like Brexit, can last for years and affect the currency and financial markets. Now everyone is wondering what will be the next step of Trump. Will he almost completely import all Chinese imports? As practice shows, Trump's serious steps in the international arena often cause the strengthening of the US dollar.

Trading recommendations:

On the EUR / USD pair, an upward correction began. Actual Buy-positions can be actual small intraday lots with Kijun-Sen line goals and the level of 1.1696 established based on the average volatility of the instrument.

It is recommended to open the sell orders after the correction is completed with the goal of the first level of support at 1.1602. The signal to open shorts can serve as a rebound from the critical line or turn the MACD indicator down.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Banking areas of EUR/USD 19.07.18

From the point of view of the location of the last three zones of bank compilation, a medium-term accumulation zone is formed on the pair. This indicates the need to fix any transactions on weekly and monthly extremes.

Yesterday, the next zone of bank compilation was formed, which makes it possible to determine the priority for the second half of the current week. Closure of trades occurred within the zone, which indicates the flat nature of the movement. Fastening above the zone will give an opportunity to buy. The purpose of purchases will be the compilation zone last week, within which there was an increase in supply.

analytics5b500945c8d85.png

Working in the flat suggests partial fixation when reaching the level of 1.1722. The rest of the purchases should be transferred to breakeven and be closed in case of repeated occurrence of demand.

To continue the downward movement, today's closing of the American session is required below the zone of bank compilation. This will open the way for a fall to the June low. Sales from current marks are not profitable, since it is difficult to determine the location of the stop-loss, and the profit potential may be limited to the last week's minimum. In confirming the sales, we will have to wait for the closure of today's US session below the compilation zone.

analytics5b500a49a66de.png


The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 19, 2018

analytics5b506625269c9.png+

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until a bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears. That's why bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed a further decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

A quick decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed a temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again. This was followed by a recent bullish reversal pattern (123 pattern) which enhances the bullish side of the market.

Currently, recent signs of bullish weakness are being manifested on the chart. The bulls are failing to maintain trading above 0.6820 which may endanger the bullish reversal scenario.

Trade Recommendations:

The price zone 0.6750-0.6800 still constitutes a demand zone to be considered for a valid BUY entry.

Bullish fixation above 0.6820 is needed to provide enough bullish momentum towards 0.6900-0.6980.

Please be cautious if the current bearish decline extends below 0.6680 as this invalidates the suggested bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for July 19, 2018

analytics5b50656ed7167.png

Recently, GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2982. Anyway, according to the M30 time - frame, I found 2-hour balance and a potential fake breakout of the support, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the 1.3020 to confirm a further upward movement. The upward target is set at the price of 1.3080.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.3125R2: 1.3175 R3: 1.3230 Support levels: S1: 1.3020S2: 1.2960 S3: 1.2915

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/AUD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

EUR/AUD is approaching its support at 1.5651 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where we expect price to rise to its resistance at 1.5773 (100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) bounced off its support at 4.8%. We have also identified a bullish divergence with price which contributes to our bullish divergence.

EUR/AUD is approaching its support where a bounce is expected.

Buy above 1.5651. Stop loss at 1.5598. Take profit at 1.5773.

analytics5b5061653240c.png

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Bounce Off Support, Prepare For A Rise!

GBP/USD bounced off its support at 1.3030 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, multiple swing low support) where we expect price to rise to its resistance at 1.3222 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance). Stochastic (89, 5, 3) bounced off near its support at 3.3% where a corresponding rise could occur.

GBP/USD bounced off its support where we expect to see a further rise.

Buy above 1.3030. Stop loss 1.2945. Take profit at 1.3222.

analytics5b5061008d84b.png

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR./USD analysis for July 19, 2018

analytics5b5060e137bf9.png

Recently, EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1594. Anyway, according to the H1 time - frame, I found strong support trendline at the price of 1.1600 on the test, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks very risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the macd oscillator in the backgorund, which is another sign of potential strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1655.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.1672R2: 1.1700 R3: 1.1735 Support levels: S1: 1.1610S2: 1.1575 S3: 1.1546

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 19, 2018

analytics5b505db551616.png

Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why, a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.

Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where significant bearish pressure was expressed on Tuesday.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside a consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1750 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Please note that any bullish breakout above 1.1750 will probably liberate a quick bullish movement towards 1.1850 (the upper limit of the depicted supply zone).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 19, 2018

analytics5b505b6fec014.png

This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1694, the market will decline further to 1.1623 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1752 with the first target at 1.1663 and further to 1.1566. However, a stop loss is to be placed above the level of 1.1810 (golden ratio).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 19, 2018

analytics5b5058037dd0d.png

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 1.3127 towards 1.2982. Now, the price is set at 1.3011. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3072 and 1.3127. Volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still expected to be moving between 1.3072 and 1.2914 in the coming hours. In the short term, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue trading in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2914 to form a bullish channel. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 1.3172, while immediate resistance is found at 1.3072. According to the previous events, the pair is likely to move from 1.2982/1.2914 towards 1.3072 and 1.3172 as targets.

In the H1 time frame:

However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.3072, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.3072. So, the market will decline further to 1.2914. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2845.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for July 19, 2018

analytics5b5059424541c.png

Trading recommendations:

Recently, Bitcoin has been trading sideways at the price of $7,297. Anyway, according to the H1 time frame, I found a potential end of the downward correction (expanded flat), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found the intraday symmetrical triangle in creation, which is another sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of the symmetrical triangle to confirm further upward continuation. The upward targets are set at the price of $7,557 and $7,731.

$7,356 - Intraday resistance; $7,197 – Intraday support; $7,557 – Objective target 1; $7,731 - Objective target 2;

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on July 19 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakout and a return to the 1.1634 level will be the first signal for the opening of long positions in euros, with the main target of return and consolidation above the resistance 1.1659. This opens up good prospects for a larger correction to the 1.1690 area, where it is recommended to fix profits. In case of a decline in EUR/USD in the first half of the day, players can return to purchases after updating the support 1.1604 or on a rebound from the new low at 1.1567.

To open short positions for EUR/USD, you need:

The breakthrough and consolidation below the 1.1634 support will be another signal for euro sales to upgrade the 1.1604 level. In the absence of demand for euros in this range, a series of test in this area will lead the EUR/USD to a further sellout, as well as testing the lows in the 1.1567 and 1.1529 areas, where it is recommended to fix profits. If the euro rises above the 1.1659 in the first half of the day, you can sell for a rebound from 1.1690.

analytics5b5035263dd0d.png

Indicators Description:

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for July 19. Bullish divergence allowed us to begin recovery

4h

analytics5b50314723422.png

The GBP / USD pair fell to a correction level of 200.0% at 1.3047 and a reversal in favor of the British pound on the 4-hour chart. As a result, the growth began in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% at 1.3301. Binding divergences on July 19 can not be seen in any indicator. The consolidation of quotes under the Fibo level of 200.0% will work in favor of the US dollar and the pair dropped to the correction level of 261.8% - 1.2638.

The Fibo grid was formed on extremes from March 1, 2018 and April 17, 2018.

1h

analytics5b50314fa0bfc.png

On the hourly chart, the pair reversed in favor of the British currency and fixed above the correction level of 100.0% to 1.3049, after the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator. As a result, the growth process can be continued today in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% at 1.3122. The pair's retracement from the correction level of 76.4% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the correction level of 100.0%. Fixing the quotes below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of the pair to continue falling towards the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.2963.

The Fibo grid was formed on extremes of June 22, 2018 and June 28, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Buy the GBP / USD pair with a target of 1.3122 and a stop loss order under the correction level of 100.0%, if there is a close above the Fibo level of 1.3049 (hourly chart).

Sell the GBP / USD pair with the target of 1.2963 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 100.0% if there is a close under the level of 1.3049.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Banking zones GBP/USD 19.07.18

The decline last week occurred after the pair re-tested the bank compilation zone. This indicates the operations aimed at reducing the rate of the British pound.

Yesterday's compilation occurred near the June extremum, which can serve as a starting point for both the continuation of the fall and for the formation of a mid-term reversal pattern. The closing of US session yesterday occurred below the compilation zone, indicating a top-down priority. Maintaining the price within the zone or below will give an opportunity to look for sales again, and its initial target will be the July low.

analytics5b500b911ddeb.png

Testing the June low led to an increase in demand, which indicates the presence of limit orders and the interest of large players. To confirm a downward impulse, the closing of American session today should be below the banking zone.

To form the reversal pattern, traders need to close the American session today above the bank compilation zone. This will allow players to search for purchases until the next Wednesday. The first target of growth will be the compilation zone of last week, where the probability of a large offer will increase again. Today, considering purchases is difficult because there is no confirmation, so it's better to wait for the trading close today. The range to the previous compilation zone is large enough, so the size of the stop might change and does not depend on today's traffic.

analytics5b500ccfbcc0c.png


Daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

Monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for July 19

Dear colleagues.

For the of EUR / USD pair, the continuation of the movement downward is expected after the breakdown of 1.1613. The price is in the active zones for the development of momentum. For the GBP / USD pair, the continuation of the development of the downward structure from July 16 is expected after the breakdown of 1.3031. For the USD / CHF pair, the price is in the correction zone from the medium-term initial conditions for the bottom on July 13. The 0.9957 level is the key resistance. For the USD / JPY pair, we expect the movement towards the level of 113.40. For the of EUR / JPY pair, the goals remained unchanged but the price forms the potential for the bottom of July 17. For the GBP / JPY pair, the formation of a downward structure from July 16 to continue downward movement is possible after the breakdown of 146.69.

The forecast for July 19:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

analytics5b4ff71624f7b.png

For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1744, 1.1709, 1.1688, 1.1669, 1.1613, 1.1578, 1.1550 and 1.1517. Here, we follow the downward structure of July 17. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1613. In this case, the target is 1.1578. In the area of 1.1578 - 1.1550 is short-term downward movement, as well as the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.1517. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback upward.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.1669 - 1.1688. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1709. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of July 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1670 Take profit: 1.1686

Buy 1.1690 Take profit: 1.1707

Sell: 1.1611 Take profit: 1.1580

Sell: 1.1576 Take profit: 1.1555

analytics5b4ff72475b29.png

For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3155, 1.3114, 1.3088, 1.3031, 1.2993, 1.2935 and 1.2902. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure of July 16. Short-term downtrend is expected in the area of 1.3031 - 1.2993. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 1.2935. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.2902. Upon reaching this level, we expect the consolidation of the price.

Short-term uptrend is possible in the area of 1.3088 - 1.3114. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3155. This level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure of July 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3088 Take profit: 1.3112

Buy: 1.3116 Take profit: 1.3150

Sell: 1.3030 Take profit: 1.2995

Sell: 1.2990 Take profit: 1.2937

analytics5b4ff73085297.png

For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.0029, 1.0002, 0.9987, 0.9957, 0.9935, 0.9921, 0.9879 and 0.9852. Here, we follow the formation of a downward structure from July 13. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9957. In this case, the target is 0.9935. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. Passing the price of the noise range of 0.9935 - 0.9921 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 0.9879. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.9852. The probable date of reaching it is July 18 - 19. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback upward.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.0002 - 1.0029. Hence, we expect a key down turn. The breakdown at the level of 1.0030 will lead to an upward tendency with the target here at 1.0068.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from July 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0002 Take profit: 1.0030

Buy: 1.0032 Take profit: 1.0065

Sell: 0.9955 Take profit: 0.9937

Sell: 0.9918 Take profit: 0.9882

analytics5b4ff73d1412c.png

For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 114.16, 113.78, 113.40, 112.68, 112.36, 112.09 and 111.71. Here, we expect the movement towards 113.40. In the area of 113.40 - 113.78 is short-term upward movement. The potential value for the top is level 114.16. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Departure towards correction is possible after the breakdown of 112.65. Here, the first target is 112.36. Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 112.36 - 112.09. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 111.71.

The main trend is the upward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.42 Take profit: 113.76

Buy: 113.80 Take profit: 114.14

Sell: 112.65 Take profit: 112.38

Sell: 112.05 Take profit: 111.75

analytics5b4ff74955ef3.png

For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3384, 1.3247, 1.3193, 1.3071, 1.3025 and 1.2938. Here, the situation is still in an equilibrium state. Short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.3193 - 1.3247. The breakdown of the last value should lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.3384.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3071 - 1.3025. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a potential for downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2938.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3250 Take profit: 1.3380

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.3025 Take profit: 1.2940

Sell: Take profit:

analytics5b4ff7553433d.png

For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7434, 0.7410, 0.7355, 0.7341, 0.7318 and 0.7281. Here, we follow a small downward cycle from July 9. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after passing through the noise range of 0.7355 - 0.7341. In this case, the target is 0.7318. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.7281 (the probable date of reaching is July 13).

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7410 - 0.7434. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of the an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 0.7483.

The main trend is the downward cycle from July 9, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7436 Take profit: 0.7465

Buy: 0.7411 Take profit: 0.7432

Sell: 0.7340 Take profit: 0.7320

Sell: 0.7316 Take profit: 0.7284

analytics5b4ff762e4ad9.png

For the of EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 133.11, 132.38, 132.01, 131.73, 131.20, 130.85 and 130.42. Here, we follow the local upward structure of July 11. Mainly, we expect the departure towards correction. Short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 131.73 - 132.01. The breakdown of the last value will allow us to expect movement towards the 132.38 level. Near this is the consolidation level, and hence, there is a high probability of withdrawal into correction. The potential value for the top is the level of 133.11, the probable date of reaching it is July 17 - 18. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 131.20 - 130.85. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 130.42. This level is the key support for the upward structure of July 11.

The main trend is a local structure for the top of 11 July.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 131.73 Take profit: 131.00

Buy: 132.05 Take profit: 132.35

Sell: 131.15 Take profit: 130.90

Sell: 130.80 Take profit: 130.45

analytics5b4ff7703d832.png

For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 148.69, 148.11, 147.71, 146.69, 145.91, 145.01 and 144.33. Here, we follow the formation of a downward structure from July 16. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 146.69. In this case, the target is 145.91. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 145.91 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 145.01. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 144.33. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 147.71 - 148.11. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 148.69. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from July 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 147.71 Take profit: 148.05

Buy: 148.15 Take profit: 148.65

Sell: 146.65 Take profit: 146.00

Sell: 145.00 Take profit: 144.40

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Quiet day for the dollar

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in the House of Representatives of the US Congress, said that public debt is growing much faster than GDP. This rather important recognition characterizes the current state of the American economy as best as possible. A sure recovery of the labor market and an increase in inflation should signal the growth of real incomes of the population but in practice, this is far from the case. Reforms have not yet produced the necessary effect and it is not known whether it will give, as more and more experts predict the onset of a new recession in 2019 or even at the end of this year.

Even more indicative is that the GDPNow model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank which predicts that GDP growth in the second quarter will be at 4.5% while the latest data on retail trade, industrial production, and housing construction are all positive. The latter is surprising. The number of new buildings in June decreased by 12.3%, the dynamics of construction permits are negative, all the figures are worse than in May, and not better than the forecasts of experts.

analytics5b5026578ee69.png

In other words, a 4.5% GDP growth is insufficient to cover the growth of debt. This is a serious problem that could provoke correction of the dollar under other conditions. It is unlikely to have a long-term effect under current conditions. Despite the fact that Powell was very cautious in assessing the actions of the Fed and pointed out that the pace of normalization should be gradual, the markets still rated his speech as hawkish. The probability of a twofold increase in the current year's rate of the CME futures markets is currently estimated at almost 70%, although Powell did not exceed 55% a day before his speech. In essence, Powell did not say anything new, repeating his previous statements about the need for a gradual rate hike, and Congressmen were primarily interested in what is being done to equalize the yield curve and how tariff policy affects the economy.

News tapes are filled with reports that Russia withdrew from the list of the largest holders of US bonds, reducing the amount of investments in May to $ 14.5 billion, which is the lowest level since 2007. This factor could be assessed as a political step, if not for the trend. According to the published report of the Treasury, the total inflow of foreign capital into the US is at a minimum over the past 6 months, with the largest decline in government bonds, as well as in the stock markets.

analytics5b502682cdbf1.png

Factors contributing to the strengthening of the dollar, in fact, are not strong enough to confidently support the bullish momentum. Reducing the balance of the Fed will inevitably lead to a reduction in the monetary base, which, combined with the increase in costs for servicing loans, can increase the value of the US currency. At the same time, the opposite trend is also noticeable, the players free in their choice are not in a hurry to enter into dollar assets, because the real state of the American economy does not look convincing, and they prefer to look for alternative markets.

Thursday, in terms of macroeconomic data, will be calm. Attention will be on the publication of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which will predict the trend of ISM in July.

The dollar, most likely, will spend the day in the side range. The short-term rally against the yen subsides after the Bank of Japan has suspended purchases of long-term T-bills this morning in order to match the yield curve, but it is unlikely that such a step will be sufficient to reduce USDJPY. The level of 113.39 may be tested at the end of the day. The GBPUSD pair, after disappointing data on inflation and reducing the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of England in August, can test 1.3050. The euro looks more confident and, most likely, will spend the day in the sideways range with the support for 1.1602 probably holding up at the end of the day, but attempts by the bears to test it are quite possible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 19/07/2018

Last week, crude oil inventories increased by 5.8 million barrels, the strongest since April. This can be seen in terms of rebounding last week's powerful, record fall in inventories. The API indicated a modest increase in inventories and the consensus expected a drop by over 4 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 3.2 million barrels and distillates by 370 thousand barrels. At the same time, the Department of Energy announced that the first time in the history of mining in the US reached the amount of 11 million barrels per day.

However, last week was not the best for the oil, which lost almost 4% in five sessions. The last few days were full of surprises, like the announcement by the EIA of the largest decline in crude oil inventories in history (-11.8 million, exp. -6.8 million). Reducing the stocks of the oil, which is a factor which in theory should exert a downward pressure on oil prices, seemed not to be taken into account by investors. Information on Libya, which announced that it will soon return to full oil production, has drowned out EIA publications. The renewed export would mean adding about 700,000 to the market barrels a day.There are not many arguments that would suggest an increase in oil prices in the near future. Investors speculate that trade-related friction between the US and China may negatively affect global demand. The last threat of imposing customs duties in the amount of 10% for Chinese products with a total value of USD 200 billion by the US government, only reinforce the fears of a further escalation of the conflict between the two powers. In addition, the suggestion that the US would start to push Russia to increase the level of oil extraction negatively impacts on oil prices. The United States itself is not idle either. The EIA forecasts that US oil production will increase to almost 12 million barrels per day in 2019, which would be almost 1 million more than at present. The price of oil is also not helped by the fact that the scenario in which the US repeals the sanctions imposed on Iran is becoming more and more possible. The return of Iran to the group of oil producers could have a negative impact on prices.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market plummets slightly below the 61% Fibo at the level of 68.07 and made a local low at the level of 67.17, which will now act as a support for the price. Due to the oversold market conditions, the price is bouncing a little, but the momentum indicator is still below its fifty level, so the spike higher did not even violate the level of 69.24 resistance. In the short term, oil should consolidate horizontally under the round number of 70 USD for some time.

analytics5b503e47075a8.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 19, 2018

EURUSD remains in a bearish trend as long as price holds below 1.1730-1.1760 as we have been saying for the last few sessions. Price bounced yesterday towards 1.1660 and is now challenging the lower triangle boundary support at 1.1610-1.16 area.

analytics5b5039f975606.png

Red lines - triangle pattern

Green rectangle - resistance

The EUR/USD pair has resistance at 1.1660. A break above this level will open the way for a bounce towards 1.1680 and most probably 1.1710. Major resistance and trend change level remains at 1.1730-1.1760 area. Bulls need to break this level in order to push higher towards 1.19-1.20. Until then we remain bearish looking for 1.12.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 19/07/2018

The Consumer Price Index growth rate in the United Kingdom (year on year) was 2.4% in June. It is the same as a month before (2.4% y/y), but clearly, less than the market anticipated (2.6% y/y). In the light of forecasts, the core indicator was to remain at the level of 2.1% y/y but fell to 1.9% y/y. After unambiguously disappointing data GBP/USD from around 1.31 fell about 90 pips.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

To address inflation, the Bank of England may raise interest rates. However, the BoE relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of the consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the worse than expected data were releases, the pair dropped about 90 pips immediately, and the technical support at the level of 1.3049 was breached. The pair made a local low at the level of 1.3008 and then bounced a little during the overnight trading session, but now is starting to fall towards the 1.3000 level again. This is a major technical support, so if it is violated, the next mid-term target fo rbears is seen at the level of 1.2775.

analytics5b503a173fcc4.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for July 19, 2018

The Gold price remains in a bearish trend in 2018 lows. Gold price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Change in trend to bullish will change only on a break above $1,245. A weekly close above this level will also be a very bullish signal.

analytics5b50379202ed9.png

Red downward sloping line - support trend line

Blue lines - higher RSI lows bullish divergence

We have been noticing higher lows in the 4-hour RSI since $1,240-45 area. The new low at $1,220 was accompanied by another higher low. The end of the decline is very close for Gold. Short-term resistance is at $1,235 and next and most important is at $1,240-45.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF For July 19, 2018

analytics5b50102d6ac1f.jpg

We've spotted a bullish gartley pattern on the 4-hour chart of USD/CHF. The pair seems to test its next Fibonacci Support 78.6% at 0.9902 before the price goes up again. The overall bias of USD/CHF is still bullish. The upward trend will carry on as long as the price does not break out and closes below the 0.9857 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 19/07/2018

Co-founder of the Avenue Capital Group, Marc Lasry in an interview with CNBC, said the Bitcoin price would be $ 40,000.

Lasry, whose company dealing in debt management and controls assets worth 9.6 billion dollars, presented the growing ease of cryptographic trade as the main reason for the increase in the price of Bitcoin. He stated that he predicted that investors from Bitcoin "from 3 to 5 years will earn from 5 to 10 times what they have invested".

Lasry in the past regretted that he had not bought Bitcoins earlier, and reports from this week say that since then, one percent of the value of his network has turned into the largest cryptocurrency. In an interview for CNBC, he added that the reason why Bitcoin likes it is "that everyone will come to him".

Lasry's predictions appeared during the rapid growth of Bitcoin, when on July 17 the coin suddenly increased by 12% and since then it has remained above $ 7,555.

Institutional investors have become an important point in discussions about Bitcoin in recent weeks - commentators follow the movement of the BlackRock investment giant towards the cryptocurrency sphere.

Lasry's $ 40,000 forecast is conservative compared to the one proposed by Tim Draper, which forecasts $ 250,000 worth of Bitcoin for 2022. Time will tell who was right.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is consolidating the gains around the level of $7,555 as the bulls are quite exhausted after a $1,500 rally. The intraday support at $7,225 is acting very well now, so still, one more wave to the upside is expected. The projected target is at the key technical resistance at the level of $7,752.

analytics5b50329d37eef.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Ripple for July 19, 2018

analytics5b500fe50091f.jpg

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the ripple is trading sideways. The price is moving from bottom to top and from top to bottom with a middle price at 0.4680. At present, after touching its resistance level, the Ripple will try to breach the mid-price of 0.4680 with a confirmation from the stochastic oscillator which is already back from the overbought level. It seems this cryptocurrency is set to break out and test its next target at the support area of 0.4257 to 0.4196.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for July 19, 2018

After an impulsive bullish momentum consistently pushing the price higher leading towards 83.50 area, AUDJPY has been quite corrective and volatile at the edge of the resistance area between 83.50 to 84.50. Though JPY has been struggling with the recent economic reports, but having positive economic reports AUD failed to sustain its momentum in the process.

Today AUD Employment Change report was published with a significant increase to 50.9k from the previous figure of 13.4k which was expected to be at 16.7k and Unemployment Rate was unchanged as expected at 5.4%. Additionally, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence report was published with a slight decrease to 7 from the previous figure of 8.

On the other hand, today the JPY Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 0.07T from the previous figure of -0.30T which failed to meet the expectation of 0.15T in the process. Ahead of the National Core CPI report tomorrow which is expected to increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.7% and All Industry Activity to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 1.0%. The upcoming momentum for JPY is still quite indecisive.

As of the current scenario, JPY did show certain progress in Trade Balance though it did not meet the expected figure but it did help to gain certain momentum over AUD whereas positive economic reports could not provide much sustainability for the currency. To sum up, JPY is expected to gain certain momentum in the coming days if it gets support from the upcoming economic reports yet to be published.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the resistance area of 83.50-84.50 area with certain bullish rejection in today's daily candle which is expected to push the price lower towards 81.50-82.00 area in the coming days. Though the volatility still exists in the pair and Kumo Cloud may hold the bearish momentum and can slow it down in the process. As the price remains below 84.50 area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

analytics5b50310fc724f.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 19/07/2018

After minimal increases on Wall Street, we observe modest drops in the overnight trading in Asia, including The Nikkei 225 fights for an uninterrupted upbeat streak. On the commodity market: oil stabilization after yesterday's about two-dollar rebound and persistence of precious metals on long-term wells.

On Thursday the 19th of July, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on UK Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data, Canadian ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data and Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data from the US.

AUD/USD analysis for 19/07/2018:

In June, employment in Australia increased by as much as 50.9k position, so it was the strongest in half a year. In addition, this was due to the increase in the number of full-time jobs and the increase in the participation rate. The market expected good data and they do not change the prospects of the RBA policy. In addition, with the depreciating industrial metals and falling CNY, it's hard to get optimistic about the Australian currency.

Let's take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair jumped in the direction of 0.7440 (around 40 pips), but quickly began to erase the move and is now at 0.7400. The key intraday resistance is still seen at the level of 0.7445, so the bulls must try harder if they want to regain the control over this market. The nearest important technical support is seen at the level of 0.7359 and 0.7341 and with the neutral momentum the prices might stay in this range until the end of the week despite the better than expected Australian job market data.

analytics5b5030172eee1.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for July 19, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite volatile and corrective recently while residing inside the range of 0.74 to 0.75 area with a daily close. Despite the positive economic reports today, AUD failed to gain momentum against USD which does indicate the dominance power of USD at the current market scenario.

Today AUD Employment Change report was published with a significant increase to 50.9k from the previous figure of 13.4k which was expected to be at 16.7k and Unemployment Rate was unchanged as expected at 5.4%. Additionally, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence report was published with a slight decrease to 7 from the previous figure of 8.

On the other hand, after the positive Retail Sales report this week, USD has been quite impulsive with the gains in the market. Today USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 21.6 from the previous figure of 19.9 and Unemployment Claims report is expected to increase to 220k from the previous figure of 214k. Moreover, today USD CB Leading Index report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%, Natural Gas Storage is expected to increase to 58B from the previous figure of 51B and FOMC Member Quarles is going to speak today about the upcoming monetary policy and interest rate decisions.

As of the current scenario, AUD has been quite positive with the economic reports already published which did contribute for the certain gain on the bullish side today but could not sustain it. Moreover, USD forecasts are quite mixed which is expected to inject certain volatility in the market. Though AUD managed to provide better reports, USD is still on the dominance mood and expected to gain further momentum if it gets better support from the upcoming economic reports to be published.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been in a downtrend for months now and after breaking below 0.75, certain volatility and correction is quite as expected. The price did push higher today but with current candle formation with certain bullish rejection and having a dynamic level of 20 EMA working as resistance, the price is expected to push much lower with a target towards 0.7350-0.7250 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.75 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

RESISTANCE: 0.7500

SUPPORT: 0.7350-0.7250

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE and CORRECTIVE

analytics5b502d8a36dba.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 19, 2018

analytics5b500f3dec833.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1701.

Strong Resistance:1.1694.

Original Resistance: 1.1683.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1672.

Target Inner Area: 1.1644.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1616.

Original Support: 1.1605.

Strong Support: 1.1594.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1587.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 19, 2018

analytics5b500ebecdeaa.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.33.

Resistance. 2: 113.11.

Resistance. 1: 112.89.

Support. 1: 112.62.

Support. 2: 112.40.

Support. 3: 112.18.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 19, 2018

analytics5b50014e172a7.png

The wave ii/ correction towards at least 1.7067 is developing as expected. Wave c/ of ii/ is most likely shaping up to be an ending diagonal, meaning that resistance should be expected near 1.7182 for the final leg lower to the corrective target at 1.7067 from where a new impulsive rally is expected.

Only a direct break above resistance at 1.7236 will indicate a premature completion of wave c/ and ii/ for the next rally higher towards 1.7668 and 1.7979 as the next upside targets.

R3: 1.7298

R2: 1.7236

R1: 1.7182

Pivot: 1.7136

S1: 1.7116

S2: 1.7067

S3: 1.7026

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.7075 or upon a break above resistance at 1.7236

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 19, 2018

analytics5b4fff0aaaccc.png

The expected red wave iv correction is unfolding nicely. The structure still doesn't look complete, so we continue to look for more downside closer to the 130.61 - 130.77 area from where a new impulsive rally in red wave v could begin.

Only a direct break above minor resistance at 131.78 will confirm that red wave iv completed early and red wave v already is starting to develop towards the 133.02 - 133.60 area. This is the most likely target-area for red wave v.

R3: 132.11

R2: 131.98

R1: 131.78

Pivot: 131.16

S1: 130.85

S2: 130.77

S3: 130.61

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 130.80 or upon a break above 131.78.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for July 18, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite weak with the bullish momentum today comparing the previous daily pressure it had earlier this week. The price has moved higher above $7,000 area which is pretty good for the bulls but the amount of bullish pressure expected was not seen at the current market situation. Though having no alarming fundamentals for Bitcoin and Crypto market, the price is expected to continue to push higher in the coming days of the week as well. As of the current scenario, the price is still residing inside the Kumo Cloud, which might be a strong reason for the bullish pressure to slow down technically but as the price remains above $6,500 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with target towards $8,000 in the coming days though certain correction can be observed in the process.

analytics5b4f6accdfde0.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of GBP/USD as of July 18, 2013

Looking at the UK labor market data, it becomes clear that they are disastrous. The only favorable thing is the unemployment rate itself remained unchanged. But everything else does not just cause fear, but even panic. The number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 7.8 thousand and expected to decrease by 2.1 thousand, but the wage data came in much worse. As expected, the growth rates of the average wage without premiums slowed down from 2.8% to 2.7%, but the growth rates of the average wage, taking into account the premiums, did not remain the same but slowed from 2.6% to 2.5% %. The decline of wages against the background of rising inflation is an extremely negative factor for the medium-term prospects of the British economy. And, this is all against the backdrop of difficulties with the "divorce" with the European Union.

But it did not stop there, as the dollar went up all day. The growth in the dollar was supported by the industrial production data, showing the growth rate accelerated from 3.2% to 3.8%. Its contribution to the dollar strengthening was introduced by the Fed Chair, whose statements were quite curious. After the press conference, Mr. Powell was questioned about customs duties and trade agreements and the head of the Federal Reserve said that he did not agree with the White House policy. In his opinion, it is necessary to strive for the complete removal of all trade barriers in international trade. He also added that there no way to calculate yet the consequences of the trade war, which in fact has already begun. However, the Fed does not intend to revise its plans at the refinancing rate, unlike the ECB and the Bank of England which mention trade disputes in the context of the refusal to tighten monetary policy. The head of the US Central Bank confirmed again that the refinancing rate will be raised once more by the end of the year. Such a confident position of the Fed gives the dollar strength.

Today, the pound has a great chance to win back its losses due to inflation data, which is expected to grow from 2.4% to 2.6%. Of course, the inflation growth against a background of declining incomes of the population does not look very nice. However, large investors have already executed decline in salaries, and they think in several other categories. The increase in inflation indicates growth in the investment return, and also allows us to hope that the Bank of England will come to its senses and raise the refinancing rate.

The American statistics are expected to be multidirectional, as the number of construction projects are projected to be reduced by 2.2%, but the number of building permits issued may increase by 6.0%.

Most likely, the pound will be able to grow to 1.3175.

analytics5b4ede2612241.png

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: triple blow to pound positions

The British currency is again under considerable pressure - both from macroeconomic indicators and the rhetoric of the head of the English regulator, and from the political prospects of Brexit. Relatively recently, the pound has experienced such a negative combination: in the spring of this year, the key indicators of the economy have significantly decreased, and the probability of a "hard" divorce between London and Brussels has increased significantly. A similar situation is happening now, however, with certain nuances.

The "black band" of negative events for the pound began as early as the beginning of the week, when Theresa May began her next confrontation with the parliament about the further relations between London and Brussels. At stake was an amendment to the Brexit law governing trade relations after the country's withdrawal from the Alliance – if this amendment were adopted, Britain would have had to stay in the customs union. This factor would have a negative impact on the pound, as Theresa May voiced her firm intention to leave the single market, creating a free trade zone with more expanded "functionality" (in particular, the ability to enter into trade transactions with third countries).

If May had not defended that intention, the prime minister's chair would reel under her again, while her resignation in the current circumstances is comparable to a political disaster. In the course, even direct threats of a political nature were used: before the vote, Theresa May's supporters told their colleagues that they were ready to announce a no-confidence motion to the premier and hold early elections to parliament if the deputies did not support its foreign policy course. But even with such rhetoric, the preponderance of votes in favor of rejecting the amendment was minimal - 307 against 301.

The odious amendment was not adopted, after which the law was voted in the third reading and sent to the House of Lords for approval. The GBP/USD pair, in turn, jumped by almost a hundred points. However, the price correction was short-term. The minimal number of superiority in parliament suggests that Theresa May, against the background of recent events and high-profile resignations, has lost the support of many deputies. If The House of Lords returns the law to the lower house for review, the risk of political failure for the prime minister is high.

In addition, the situational victory of Theresa May in the parliament does not mean anything. Now it needs to defend the main positions of the updated "White Paper" in Brussels. It will not be easy – too many privileges and preferences trying to keep London after parting with the Alliance. For example, last year the Europeans were categorically opposed to the fact that Britain enjoyed the advantages of the single market and would have the opportunity to independently enter into trade transactions with third countries. The rest of the situation is similar: it seems that Theresa May goes from the maximum, leaving room for maneuver in the search for a compromise solution.

One way or another, fears about the "hard" Brexit returned to the market. Mark Carney also added fuel to the fire, who warned about the apocalyptic consequences of such a scenario at the parliamentary hearings on Tuesday. In particular, the head of the Bank of England said that if Britain withdraws from the EU without a deal, then the country will be guided by the terms of the World Trade Organization. This will put Britain" in the worst economic situation " with all the ensuing consequences.

The weak pound finally lost its foothold, especially when Carney linked Brexit with the prospects for monetary policy. He stressed that in this case, the central bank will not only review its policy, but also call into question the work of many financial institutions of the country." In other words, Carney allowed for the possibility of interest rate cuts in the case of "hard" Brexit or (at least) a long-term pause in the issue of tightening the conditions of monetary policy. Mark Carney has not held such a "dovish" and categorical position. And this is against the background of general market expectations regarding the rate increase at the August meeting of the Bank of England. This contrast of sentiment increased the pressure on the pound.

analytics5b4f5e1ae2fb4.jpg

As a "control shot," British inflation data was published, which came out in the red zone on Wednesday. The consumer price index in monthly terms slowed down to zero level, and in annual terms remained at the same level of 2.4%, with growth forecast to 2.6%. The core inflation index also fell short of the forecast values (1.9%, with the forecast of 2.1%). The retail price index, the purchasing price index, the producer price index – all these inflation indicators were worse than expected, showing a slowdown.

A set of negative fundamental factors continues to put pressure on the pound. The GBP/USD pair reached the bottom of the 30th figures – the last time the price was at such low prices was in the autumn of last year. Now everything will depend on the results of the next negotiations between Britain and the EU, taking into account the main positions of the "White Paper".

analytics5b4f5e0bc4401.jpg

If Brussels shows willingness to compromise, the pound will quickly recover to at least the first resistance level of 1.3190 (the average line of Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the Tenkan-sen line). But if the negotiation process again comes to a standstill and the "hard" Brexit looms again on the horizon, the pair will not only return to the annual low, but will also go to the 29th figure with the main downward target of 1.2910. After all, the "hard" scenario of Brexit includes the likelihood of easing monetary policy, by analogy with 2016.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

AUD/USD is approaching its support at 0.7366 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where it could potentially bounce and rise to its resistance at 0.7413 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 2.2% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

AUD/USD is approaching its support where a bounce is expected.

Buy above 0.7366. Stop loss at 0.7345. Take profit at 0.7413.

analytics5b4f2d89f21bf.png

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarketThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

EURUSD is approaching its support at 1.1635 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement x2, horizontal swing low support) where it could rise to its resistance at 1.1745 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 2.7% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

EURUSD is approaching its support where a bounce is expected.

Buy above 1.1635. Stop loss 1.1567. Take profit at 1.1745.

analytics5b4f2d423f433.png

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarketThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 18, 2018

analytics5b4f2c1a5e31f.png

Overview:

In the long term, the major resistance is seen at the level of 0.7474. The AUD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7474 towards 0.7348. But, the price rebounded from the bottom of 0.7348 to trade around the spot of 0.7474 again. The resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7474, 0.7513 and 0.7554. Moreover, the price area of 0.7474/0.7513 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7474 and 0.7257. If the AUD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7474, the market will decline further to 0.7302 as the first target. This would suggest the bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7257 so as to test the daily support 3. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7554, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 18, 2018

analytics5b4f2a606b171.png

Overview:

The USD/CAD pair will probbaly continue to rise from the level of 1.3139 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.3139 which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.3247. So, buy above the level of 1.3247 with the first target at 1.3309 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3385. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3385 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3064, a further decline to 1.2988 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 18 July. Trading system "Regression channels". All attention to inflation in the UK

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b4ee94f1e2c9.png

Technical data:

Senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is sideways.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

CCI: -183.5053

The advantage in the GBP / USD pair on Tuesday, July 17, was entirely on the side of the US currency. Chairman of the Fed Jerome Powell pleased traders with a strong position and said that the key rate will continue to grow, and the US economic growth has excellent prospects. In turn, Mark Carney expressed concern about the uncertainty in the Brexit scenario, and is also concerned about its consequences for the economy. Thus, every speech was supported by the US dollar. Today, July 18, should pay attention to the publication of inflation in Britain. According to experts' forecasts, the indicator may grow up to 2.6%, however, after yesterday's speech by Karni, market participants can easily ignore this publication. Even further acceleration of inflation does not give grounds to assume tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of England in the near future. All attention is now focused on the political crisis in the Parliament, the actions of Theresa May and Brexit. After dinner, Jerome Powell's second speech will take place, which, like yesterday, may trigger new purchases of the US dollar, despite the Fed's concerns about the possible consequences of the trade war.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.3062

S2 - 1,3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.3123

R2 = 1.3184

R3 = 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

For GBP / USD, the price continues strong downward movement with no signs of a correction beginning. The goals for shorts now are the levels of 1.3062 and 1.3000. A strong overbought CCI warns of a possible correction, but has not yet been confirmed by a signal from Heikin Ashi.

The purchase orders will become relevant only after the traders have overcome the moving average line with a target of 1.3306. However, this is unlikely to happen today, since at the moment the price is far enough from the moving-house.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com