Bitcoin analysis for August 21, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found that Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase. Anyway, my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities if you see a valid breakout of the resistance trendline. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the macd oscillator, which is another sign of strength. The profit targets are set at the price of $6,633 and at the price of $6,937.

Support/Resistance

$6,441 – Intraday resistance

$6,193– Intraday support

$6,633 – Objective target 1

$6,937 – Objective target 2

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USD/CAD analysis for August 21, 2018

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Recently, the USD/CAD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3013. According to the H1 time frame, I found that price is trading in the downwards regression channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found broken support trendline in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities with that downward targets at 1.3000 and at the price of 1.2968.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3076

R2: 1.3111

R3: 1.3130

Support levels:

S1: 1.3022

S2: 1.3003

S3: 1.2968

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for August 21, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.2845. According to the M30 time – frame, I found that price is trading inside the rising regression channel, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found oversold conditions on the stochastic, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities with take profit at 1.2887.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2820

R2: 1.2845

R3: 1.2890

Support levels:

S1: 1.2750

S2: 1.2705

S3: 1.2680

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 21, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range (1.2200).

The price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair is testing the price zone of 1.1450-1.1370 (demand zone) where the depicted trend lines are located on the depicted weekly chart.

As anticipated, bearish closure below 1.1400 was achieved. This allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1300.

For further bearish decline to occur, the EUR/USD pair needs obvious bearish breakdown below 1.1400. Initial bearish target would be located around 1.1275 then 1.1120 if enough bearish pressure is applied.

On the other hand, if the current bullish pullback extends above 1.1520, further bullish advancement should be expected towards 1.1700.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 21, 2018

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Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed for a bearish breakout of the depicted consolidation range (0.7170 and 0.7350).

A quick decline took place towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily.

However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6700-0.6840) was executed. This allowed the current bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Recently, signs of bullish recovery are being manifested around the recent low of 0.6550. This allowed the current bullish pullback to occur.

Conservative traders should wait for a deeper bullish pullback towards 0.6700-0.6720 for a low-risk SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6770.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 21, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot point: 0.9857.

The USD/CHF pair is still trading above the 0.9857 pivot point of the price. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci and 61.8%). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set it at the level of 1.0050.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for August 21, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.7300. Since yesterday, the pair has risen from the level of 0.7299 (the level of 0.7299 coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci Expansion) to the top around 0.7359. In consequence, the AUD/USD pair broke resistance at 0.7329, which turned into strong support at the level of 0.7329. In the H1 time frame, the level of 0.7299 is expected to act as major support today. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish market. The price is still above the moving average (100) and (50). From this point, we expect the AUD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.7359 towards the target level of 0.7400. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.7400, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7400 so as to reach the second target at 0.7454 (the double top). At the same time, if the AUD/USD pair is able to break out the level of 0.7329, the market will decline further to 0.7263 (daily support 2).

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AUD/USD Testing Resistance, Prepare For Reversal!

AUD/USD is testing its resistance at 0.7349 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance), where a reversal to its support at 0.7284 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) is expected. Stochastic (55, 5, 3) has reversed off its resistance at 97%, where a corresponding drop is expected.

AUD/USD is testing its resistance, where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 0.7349. Stop loss at 0.7395. Take profit at 0.7284.

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EUR/USD Testing Resistance, Prepare For Reversal!

EUR/USD is testing its resistance at 1.1523 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% & 50% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance), where a reversal to its support at 1.1400 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) is expected. Stochastic (55, 5, 3) has reversed off its resistance at 97%, where a corresponding drop is expected.

EUR/USD is testing its resistance, where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.1523. Stop loss at 1.1583. Take profit at 1.1400.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 21, 2018

As expected EUR/USD has bounced back for a back test at the previous support zone around 1.15. Price is again above 1.15 and challenging the resistance at 1.1520-1.1530. If we are going to see new lows we should expect EUR/USD to get rejected around these levels.

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Red line - triangle pattern (broken)

EUR/USD is back testing the lower boundary of the broken triangle pattern. Price is also at the 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance. This is important resistance area. Next resistance is at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1580. As long as price is below this level and below the upper triangle boundary, we remain bearish expecting new lows for the pair. This bounce could be a nice opportunity to sell EUR/USD with a tight stop as we were doing when price was challenging 1.1730.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 21, 2018

Gold price has reached our first short-term target of $1,195 after breaking above $1,183. Trend however remains bearish for the medium-term and this bounce is still considered corrective in nature and against the prevailing trend. Only a break above $1,200 and if prices stay above it will signal a trend change.

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Black lines - wedge pattern

Gold price has reached its first extension target. Resistance is here at $1,195-$1,200 area. A rejection at current levels is very possible. If Gold price is going to make new lows over the coming weeks, we should see a rejection at current levels. If Gold continues higher we will start looking at the August lows as a major low and that a new up trend has started. So far price is making higher highs and higher lows in the 4 hour chart. If price stabilizes above $1,200 we could see more upside over the coming weeks. Short-term support at $1,185-80 must be respected and price should hold above this area if we are going to see this rally continue higher.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 21, 2018

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Today, both European and the US market will not release Economic Data, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1547. Strong Resistance:1.1540. Original Resistance: 1.1529. Inner Sell Area: 1.1518. Target Inner Area: 1.1491. Inner Buy Area: 1.1464. Original Support: 1.1453. Strong Support: 1.1442. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1435.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 21, 2018

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Today, both Japan and USA will not release any Economic Data. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 110.45. Resistance. 2: 110.23. Resistance. 1: 110.02. Support. 1: 109.75. Support. 2: 109.54. Support. 3: 109.32.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 21, 2018

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EUR/NZD is finally showing signs of strength again, We still need a clear break above resistance at 1.7355 to confirm that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii is developing to above 1.7484 for a continuation higher towards 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next important upside targets.

Support is now seen at 1.7269 and again at 1.7231. The later should ideally be able to protect the downside for the expected break above resistance at 1.7355.

R3: 1.7484

R2: 1.7417

R1: 1.7355

Pivot: 1.7310

S1: 1.7292

S2: 1.7269

S3: 1.7231

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR at 1.7245 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7225.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 21, 2018

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We still favor this really being part of an expanded flat wave iv/ correction. Under this count, EUR/JPY should continue higher towards 127.94 and from there a final spike in wave v/ should be expected to just below 124.89 to complete wave ii. That said, we have some serious consideration about the time-span of wave ii. It's now getting very close to the maximum 9 x the time-span of wave i, this does imply that we might already have seen the low of wave ii/ with the test of 124.89 and wave iii to above 131.99 is in its infancy.

As long as EUR/JPY stays below 128.48 and within the maximum time-span we will keep our present count as our preferred, but a break of any of the limits, will immediately shift our preferred count in favor of a complete wave ii and wave iii developing.

R3: 127.94

R2: 127.43

R1: 127.06

Pivot: 126.46

S1: 126.05

S2: 125.76

S3: 125.55

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 126.25 and we will move our stop higher to 126.00. We will take half profit at 127.40 and wait for a new EUR-buying opportunity at 125.15.

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Ethereum analysis for 20/08/2018

Vitalik Buterin, a co-founder of the Ethereum platform, re-emphasized that the biggest problem that Blockchain is currently facing is the high ratio of generated publicity to real use cases: "The amount of Blockchain's sustainable use is very low. Although there are many people giving value to cryptocurrencies, the amount of useful things that are available is still much lower than it seems due to a market capitalization of 200 billion dollars" - says Buterin in an interview with one of the financial media.

He has already outlined the need for more specific use and expressed concern that companies do not realize where they must use Blockchain. Speaking at a small private event organized by the student organization Blockchain in Berkeley-Origin, Buterin delved into topics such as adoption, use cases, recipes and the state of Ethereum.

Another of his concerns is privacy in Blockchain or rather its lack: "Currently, there are no good ways to use Blockchain technology while maintaining privacy. There are attempts to solve this problem, for example, cryptocurrency Zcash, as well as research on Ethereum. However, we still have a long way to go over the Blockchain privacy issue" - he said.

Regarding the present state of Ethereum, Vitalik says he is satisfied with many things such as the progress of state and plasma channels. In terms of scalability, he says that the Foundation is on the way to achieving a higher level of consensus, and considers the solution to be much better than he had imagined five years ago.

Let's now take a look at the ETH/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading just at the intraday technical support at the level of 278.90, but the bulls look weak - the momentum oscillator points to the downside. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 301.55 and 318.01, but these levels are too far away to be considered as a game-changing level for bears. In a case of a further downside extension, the next supports are at 268.82 and 246.61.

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Global macro overview for 20/08/2018

Last week, the global investors got the latest retail sales data from the United States. According to information provided by the American Census Bureau, the value of the basic retail sales increased in July this year by 0.6%, which turned out to be a much better result than the previous publication (0.2%) as well as from already optimistic forecasts (0.4%). The full retail sales index was also well presented, which despite the forecasts assuming maintaining the growth rate at 0.2%, eventually increased by as much as 0.5%.

The American Census Burau published data from the real estate market regarding, among others building permits and started construction of houses. The July value of building permits amounted to 1.311 million, beating forecasts of analysts (1.310 million) and June results (1.292 million). Thanks to this, the dynamics of the indicator on a monthly basis recorded a strong reflection of 1.5% (from -0.7% observed in the previous period). The result of housing starts (started house construction) was not so optimistic. Although the reading at 1.168 million was better than the previous one, which was revised down to 1.158 million from 1173 million, it did not meet the expectations of analysts who assumed a reading at 1.270 million. This fact caused that the indicator dynamics was at the level of 0.9% which is a result of significantly worse than expected (7.4%), although still better than the previous reading, which was revised to -12.9% from -12.3% %.

As every Thursday, at the same time, the global investors also got to know the data from the American labor market. According to the latest Department of Labor report, the number of pre-declared unemployed in the week ending on July 11 this year. it was at the level of 212,000, which means a decrease of 2,000 compared to last week.

The markets also got familiar with the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan index for August this year. The index itself is based on telephone surveys that are conducted on a representative group of 500 US households. They ask for both an assessment of the current economic conditions and expectations as to the future. The consensus before this publication assumed a slight increase in the index value to 98.1 from 97.9 previously. However, as it turned out, the purchasing power of American consumers seems to be significantly worse now, as the result at the level of 95.3 turned out to be much worse than just the forecasts, but also the previous publication.

In conclusion, the data from the US economy was not that good as expected, which might trigger the weakening of the US Dollar across the board. Let's then take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a top at the level of 97.00 and since then the price is falling towards the level of 95.66, which is the important technical support for the market. The momentum indicator is pointing down and it is below the fifty level, so it is another confirmation of a short-term bearish bias.

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BITCOIN Analysis for August 20, 2018

Bitcoin has been consolidating at the edge of $6,500 area for a while now which has created a small range at the edge of the strong resistance area. Though the previous price pressure was bearish having Tenkan line below the current price area is an indication of upcoming bullish momentum in the pair. The dynamic level of 20 EMA is still may hold the price as resistance but as the price clears above $6,500 area with a strong bullish daily close, further bullish momentum is expected in this pair with a target towards $8,000 area in the coming days. As the price remains above $6,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 6,000

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 8,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Weekly review of the foreign exchange market as of August 20, 2018

During the past week, the dollar failed to develop its success, although, at its very beginning, it continued to grow, but rather by inertia. It turned out that in the absence of serious political factors, the dollar did not have any reasons for growth, as the US statistics was rather weak, especially against the background of data from Europe. In particular, the growth rate of retail sales slowed from 6.6% to 6.4%, although industrial production accelerated from 4.0% to 4.2%. But the value of retail sales is much greater, and given that the data came out simultaneously, few people paid attention to the growth of the industry. Yes, and what kind of industrial growth can be discussed, if commercial commodity stocks have been growing for six months in a row, and over the past month they have grown by another 0.1%. This clearly indicates that if sales do not start to rise again, then the industry will soon face a serious recession. True, the next day, quite good construction data came in, as the number of construction projects started increased from 1,158 thousand to 1,168 thousand, and issued construction permits from 1,292 thousand to 1,315 thousand. Together with them, data on applications for unemployment benefits, and it turned out that the number of primary applications decreased from 214 thousand to 212 thousand, but repeated from 1,760 thousand to 1,721 thousand.

But in Europe, the data came out much more interesting. If we talk about the euro area, then only industrial production can be recorded as negative data, the growth rates of which have slowed from 2.6% to 2.5%. However, the second GDP estimate for the second quarter showed that the pace of economic growth, although slowed, but not to 2.1%, as shown by the first estimate, but to 2.2%. In the first quarter, economic growth rates were 2.5%. Also, final data on inflation showed that it continues to grow and accelerated from 2.0% to 2.1%, and this, for the time being, removes any risks regarding the possibility of extending the ECB's quantitative easing program. In the UK, there were also a lot of interesting data, in particular, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.0%. Although the growth rate of wages has slowed, this is perfectly normal in the face of a decline in unemployment. Inflation also continues to grow and has already reached the level of 2.5%, and if we recall the words of a number of representatives of the Bank of England about the possibility of resuming the action of the English quantitative easing program, then inflation growth makes this prospect illusory. Well, retail sales increased their growth rate from 2.9% to 3.5%. Yes, there to say, even Russia, which constantly imposes new sanctions, demonstrates quite a good dynamics. Yes, retail sales growth rates slowed from 3.0% to 2.5%, but this ends the negative. Moreover, in contrast to the United States or Europe, retail sales have less weight than industry, whose growth rates have accelerated from 2.2% to 3.9%. And the unemployment rate remained unchanged.

If you forget about the US actions in the international arena, the dollar should lose its positions, which was observed at the very end of the week. However, this trend was more moderate, since uncertainty plays just the benefit of the dollar, but in the short term. In the long run, US actions only undermine confidence in the dollar, which will inevitably bring a serious blow to the US economy.

This week two extremely important events will take place, and both of them will take place in the USA. First, the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission for open market operations will be published, and it is expected to see confirmation that by the end of this year the Fed will double the refinancing rate twice more. Themselves these increases are already embedded in the price, so this will not lead to a serious increase in the dollar. But if investors have any doubts about the future actions of the Fed, the dollar will have to give up the won positions. The day after the publication of the text of the protocol, an annual meeting will begin in Jackson-Hole, and there is virtually no doubt that the White House's foreign trade initiatives will be the central theme. Even the NATO allies of the United States have more and more questions and doubts. Especially after the US imposed sanctions against Turkey, which has the second largest army among NATO countries. If the United States imposes sanctions even on its allies, then express surprise and indignation at the fact that in response its ally imposes restrictions on the import of goods from America, what else can we expect from the White House? Such unpredictability and assertiveness of the country emitting currency, in which almost all international trade is carried out, undermines confidence in this very currency. And it is a dollar. And after all, everyone sees that all sanctions, no matter to whom they are imposed, are purely economic in nature, to create additional advantages for American companies. If, in the American economy, everything is as good as statistics show, then why is this done? So, more and more questions arise about the real state of affairs in the American economy. And it is natural that this will not add confidence to the dollar. True, in the short term global uncertainty gives the dollar forces. And of course, and against the backdrop of such events, few will pay attention to macroeconomic statistics. In particular, home sales in the secondary market should grow from 5.38 million to 5.42 million, and new homes from 631 thousand to 650 thousand. At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits is expected to increase, and the number of primary applications should An increase from 212 thousand to 216 thousand, and repeated from 1,721 thousand to 1,767 thousand. Preliminary data on business activity indices should show the invariability of the index in the service sector with a reduction in the production index from 55.3 to 55.2, and this against the backdrop of growth in industrial production. This is doubly strange, as orders for durable goods should increase by 0.8%. So it is likely that the production index will show growth.

In Europe, there have already been data on the rate of growth in the construction industry, which accelerated from 2.0% to 2.6%. Just like in the US, preliminary data on business activity indices are coming out, and they can show the growth of the service sector from 54.2 to 55.0, while the production index fell from 55.1 to 54.6. Given the greater weight of the service sector, the composite index can grow from 54.3 to 54.4. But one of the main events of the week will be the publication of the minutes of the ECB's meeting on the monetary policy. Investors hope to see in it the confirmation that after December the ECB will not extend the program of quantitative easing, which will give confidence to the single European currency. Given that inflation in Europe continues to grow, most likely the ECB will fulfill its promise, and already in the middle of next year, you can wait for the first time in many years to raise the refinancing rate. So, it is most likely that the euro will be able to grow to 1.1475. However, if what is happening in Jackson-Hole will be perceived with a positive for the dollar, and such a probability, although not great, then the euro will drop to 1.1350.

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In the UK there is very little data, but the forecasts for them are extremely positive. In particular, public sector borrowing may shrink by £ 2.3bn, which will be received with enthusiasm and help the pound. Also, the number of approved mortgages should increase from 40,541 to 40,944, and given the huge importance of the UK property market, the pound will receive another reason for growth. So it is most likely that the pound will be able to grow to 1.2825. But as with the single European currency, much depends on the news that will come from Jackson Hole, and there is a small chance that at the very end of the week the pound will rush to the 1.2650 mark.

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With the ruble, everything is somewhat more interesting, since no data comes out, and they do not have such instant influence on the ruble. The ruble depends on geopolitical factors, and the introduction of new sanctions, which come into force on August 22, is one of them. True, the very decision to impose new sanctions has already affected the ruble, and the very fact of the beginning of their action will not lead to new consequences. Now, however, the theme of the fact that these sanctions will cause substantial damage to the Russian oil and gas industry and the entire economy is being discussed. True, such a position raises many questions, since as early as 2014 Russian oil and gas companies have practically lost the opportunity to receive loans from Western banks, as well as restrictions on the supply of equipment. But in the end, companies continue to work, and last year a record was set for oil production. Conversations about the fact that a ban on oil imports from Russia, as well as on the purchase of the Russian state stake, may be imposed, are fantasies since such measures will lead to disastrous consequences for the whole world economy. This is directly spoken by the American economists themselves and the respected media. So the ruble will gradually recover, and the dollar will fall to 66 rubles.

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The yen is bending its line

Trade negotiations between the US and China a few hours before the expansion of the package of import duties on the supply of goods from China to the States, the entry into force of new sanctions against Russia and the traditional meeting of the world's leading bankers in Jackson Hole. What could be more interesting for safe havens? And although the status of the yen, franc, and gold as reliable assets has recently been questioned, many understand that the main culprit of this is the US dollar. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts increases the demand of investors for the "American" and treasury bonds, which does not allow its competitors to prove themselves.

The yen is a kind of black sheep G10, as unlike other currencies it is not going to throw a white flag against the US dollar. She holds the first place in the list of the best performers since the beginning of the year despite the divergence in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the Fed. The yield differential between the 2-year US and Japanese land bonds has reached its highest level for more than a decade, while the pair USD / JPY has frozen in consolidation in the range of 110-111.5.

Dynamics of USD / JPY and yield differential of the US and Japanese bonds

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However, there is an opinion in the market that the factor of different vectors of monetary policy of central banks is already taken into account in the quotations of the pair being analyzed, while the strengthening of the dollar under the influence of trade wars does not pass unnoticed. Indeed, since the coming to power of BoJ Haruhiko Kuroda, USD / JPY has risen from 76 to the current 110.5, and rumors about the start of the Japanese normalization amuse the ego of the "bears". At the same time, the US currency benefits from trade frictions between the US and China. Money flows into the US debt market, and the hope that the protectionism of Donald Trump will improve the state of foreign trade boils down the self-esteem of "bulls" at the USD index.

If you deprive the US dollar of such trumps as the rapid development of the economy and trade wars, the yen can get the largest preferences among the G10 currencies on a favorable geopolitical background. Despite the optimistic forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which sees that US GDP in the third quarter will grow by 4.3% after 4.1% q / q in the second, the fading effect of tax reform, tightening of the Fed's monetary policy and financial conditions, rising borrowing costs and revaluation can result in broken illusions. In this scenario, one should expect a correction of US stock indices, worsening global appetite for risk and growth in demand for safe-haven assets.

How long will the US dollar be supported by the factor of trade wars? It is doubtful that the conflicting parties quickly agreed. On the other hand, interest in the dollar is maintained as long as non-residents buy US treasury bonds. If the enraged Celestial Empire starts throwing them off, the situation will turn upside down. And the yen will be able to take advantage of the situation.

Technically, if the "bears" manage to keep the USD / JPY quotes below the upper limit of the downward trading channel and update the August low, the risks of continuing the peak in the direction of targeting by 88.6% on the "Shark" pattern will increase.

USD / JPY, the daily chart

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The "Canadian" has everything for local growth

The general picture of uncertainty in world markets continues to persist. There are several reasons for this. This is the continuation of the holiday period, until the end of which there are two weeks, the Turkish financial crisis and the expectation of the result of new negotiations between China and the States on customs duties.

As for the period of holidays, the second half of August is traditionally the "dead season", since a significant number of investors at this time are absent from the markets, and political activity is dying, which is activated already in the first days of September with the end of vacations for officials and parliamentarians.

The impact of the Turkish financial crisis remains limited. It did not spread to Europe, although it had a strong negative impact on the local financial sector. Other emerging economies are also holding a blow.

Indeed, it is possible to single out only the expected meeting between the Chinese and Americans, which was announced in Beijing last week. The theme is all old, an attempt to resolve trade contradictions. Whether it will be possible to achieve this, while it is difficult to say, but the fact that the sub-game between Washington and Beijing continues, it is clear as a divine day. Trade war, by and large, is not beneficial to either side. But the bundle of contradictions is so large that it is not necessary to count on solving this problem yet. Therefore, in our opinion, the preservation of the uncertainty factor will provide general support to the US dollar rate, which we still believe should be bought on local declines, but not in tandem with the Canadian currency.

On Friday, data were released on consumer inflation in Canada, which exceeded all expectations and revived in the markets the expectation that already at the September meeting, the local CB would decide to raise the key interest rate from 1.50% to 1.75%. These expectations are indeed adequate, so we do not consider sales of the Canadian currency against the US dollar. We believe that she has good reasons for continuing local growth.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trading above 1.1400. Its recovery was facilitated by fixing profits on the US dollar and reducing the tension around the Turkish debt crisis. It can be assumed that if the price does not rise above 1.1440 and falls below the 1.1400 mark, then it can continue the local decline to 1.1360.

The currency pair USD / CAD is above the 1.3050 level. The pair may fall to 1.3000 on the wave of expectations of the Canadian CB's rate of increase in September. But before it can also recover on the wave of local oversold to the level of 1.3085. We consider it possible to sell the pair from this level or after its decline below the mark of 1.3050 with the same goal of 1.3000.

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on August 20. Euro continues to go up, but for how long?

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD on the 4-hour chart has increased to a correction level of 127.2% - 1.1431. End of quotes from this level of Fibo will allow traders to expect a turn in favor of the American currency and a slight drop towards the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.1333. On August 20, there are no signs of divergence in any indicator. The consolidation of the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the pair's chances for further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.1508.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from June 21, 2018, and July 9, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the quotes completed the turn without forming any signal in favor of the euro and started the growth process towards the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no maturing divergences today. The pair's retracement from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the decline in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% to 1.1285. The consolidation of quotations under the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the chances of further decline towards the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

New purchases of the EUR / USD pair will be possible for 1.1508 with a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 127.2% if the pair completes the closing above the correction level of 1.3431.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be opened with the target of 1.1333 if the pair retires from the Fibo level of 127.2%, with a Stop Loss order above 1.1431.

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EUR / USD. 20th of August. The trading system "Regression channels". The Euro-currency may start falling again

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20; flattened) - sideways.

–°CI: 105.3381

The currency pair EUR / USD continued to recover on August 17 after heavy losses and even managed to overcome the moving average line. However, the joy of European clubs can not last long. First, in the near future, the States can introduce a new package of trade restrictions against Turkey due to the refusal of the latter to give out to the American side the pastor Andrew Brunson, who was arrested two years ago on suspicion of espionage. Secondly, a very small number of experts believe that the States and China at the forthcoming talks will be able to agree on the de-escalation of the trade conflict. And these two factors can cause a new strong demand for the US currency. In the issue with Turkey, America also indirectly exerts pressure on the European Union, since more loans to this country were issued by European banks. Thus, in the event of problems with servicing or repayment of the debt, liquidity problems will arise in EU banks. It should also be noted that Turkey follows in the footsteps of China and does not want to make concessions to America. Erdogan has already urged the Turkish people to get rid of the dollar and the euro, from buying American technology, hinting, first of all, on Apple products. However, it seems that this is only the very beginning of the trade war the US has unleashed and which has already seriously affected the PRC and Turkey.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1414

S2 - 1.153

S3 - 1,1292

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1475

R2 = 1.1536

R3 = 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD was fixed above the removals. Thus, on August 20, long positions with the target of 1.1475 are relevant, but with small lots, since both channels of linear regression are still directed downwards, I signal a downward trend.

It is recommended to open sell orders after traversing the moving average line with a target of 1,1353. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will return to the hands of the bears, and the downward trend will resume.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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The US economy before the threat of deceleration

The US dollar updated the maximum against the euro and the pound last week, taking advantage of rising tensions in several regions. When will the rally be completed?

Most of the factors that markets take into account are still in favor of the dollar. These include the normalization of the Fed's policy, turmoil in Turkey and Italy, which exert strong pressure on the euro, a trade war with China. While these factors are working, the dollar will remain out of the competition. At the same time, a number of internal indicators indicate that the growth momentum is slowing down, for example, the PMI Philadelphia index fell in August to 11.9p against 25.7p a month earlier, this is a 21-month low, and the US industrial production index still will not reach the 2007 level.

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The US GDP growth is above 2% for 5 consecutive quarters, the main driver of growth in private consumption. The dollar is growing based on the factors mentioned, but it should be borne in mind that part of its growth is based on expectations of positive US results from sanctions against the US, Turkey, Russia and the trade war with China. The markets assumed that a short period of indignation and bargaining would lead to Trump's being able to obtain favorable terms for the US on all the points indicated, since that was always the case before. However, recent events show that this time the result will not be so obvious since almost all the designated countries intend to go further than expected in defending their rights.

Concerning the trade war with China, the expectations are pessimistic. On Thursday, August 23, additional restrictive import measures amounting to $ 16 billion will come into force, and by September 5 public hearings regarding an additional 200 billion will come to an end. The likelihood of the introduction of new restrictive measures and a tough response from China is high, while China there are not so many opportunities for an adequate response, one of which is a reduction in transactions with the dollar in external economic calculations, which will lead to the beginning of sales by China of American Treasuries. Such a scenario, which until recently seemed unthinkable, begins to take on the real shape and will lead to the strongest problems in the US in the formation of the budget.

So, by autumn we should wait for the slowdown in the growth of the US economy. Inflationary expectations are falling, the dynamics of inflation-protected bonds are negative, their yields are in the region of 3-month lows and continue to fall. Forecasts for ISM are negative, it is expected that business activity will fall, which is facilitated not only by an increase in Fed rates but also cyclical activity.

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Thus, part of the drivers that supported the growth of the dollar in recent months, may be won back. Support for growth will have two factors - the policy of the Federal Reserve and general political tension. This may not be enough, so you need to proceed from the fact that the dollar index may begin to form the top and will gradually roll back from the peaks achieved. This conclusion is facilitated by the insider that the Fed may stop at a 2.5% rate in the increased cycle, rather than 3.0%, as previously planned.

On Wednesday, the minutes of the Fed meeting will be published on August 1, some hawkish rhetoric is expected to be tightened, but the market reaction is unlikely to be significant.

EUR / USD

Significant macroeconomic news on the euro is not, trade is largely determined by technical factors, which indicate an increased likelihood of a small corrective growth. The support level of 1.1390, during the day growth to 1.1470 is possible.

GBP / USD

The pound at the opening of the week does not have a noticeable direction, it is likely that the trade will be in the range with a slight downward trend. Support 1.2710, most likely, it will stand today, the growth is limited to the level of 1.2790.

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