Dollar Index Drives EUR/USD Lower

EUR/USD is trading in the red as the USDX is fighting hard to climb higher on the short term. The pair drops when the dollar index increases, I've said in my previous analysis that it remains under pressure and it could drop anytime because the outlook remains bearish.

A USDX's valid breakout above the 100.00 psychological level will confirm a further increase and the EUR/USD sell-off. EUR/USD cannot register a major increase because the eurozone economy could step into recession after the COVID-19 crisis.

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EUR/USD has failed to reach the weekly R1 (1.1) level signaling that the bullish momentum could be finished. I've said in other analyses that the outlook remains bearish as long as EUR/USD is traded below the median line (ML) of the orange descending pitchfork.

The failure to come back to retest the median line (ML) could send the price towards the lower median line (LML) quickly. Still, we need a valid breakdown below the weekly Pivot Point (1.0884) level to be certain that this bearish momentum will continue.

EUR/USD could move sideways in the upcoming days between the 1.1 and the 1.0777 levels, only a valid breakout from this range will give us a fresh signal and a clear direction.

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We may have a selling opportunity from below the 1.0777 static support, EUR/USD is somehow expected to drop towards the lower median line (LML) after the failure to reach and retest the median line (ML) and the 1.1 psychological level.

On the other hand, a long opportunity will appear only if the pair makes a valid breakout above the median line (ML) of the orange descending pitchfork. EUR/USD is under pressure and it could resume the downside movement if the Dollar Index moves far above the 100.00 psychological level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Applying the tricks on major currencies

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Good afternoon, dear traders! Here are two trading ideas on the most popular instruments EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Powerful short-term initiatives took place simultaneously on both instruments during the European session yesterday.

In yesterday's review, I gave recommendations to shorten the pound rollback.

The result is on the chart on the right:

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For this day, I propose to work on the continuation of these initiatives on the "booster of the third waves" for the goals presented on the chart in the form of "customer stops".

Let me remind you that in the framework of observing the foundations method, the foundations of our counter-agents are our profit.

If you are going to buy one of these tools, I recommend doing it carefully. It will be best to do this after working out the goals on the chart, or after the appearance of new long-term initiatives.

Success in trading and control the risks!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD: IPDA 60-Da Ranges For April 16, 2020

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If we look at the 4-hour chart of USD/CAD, there is a Liquidity Void (Black Rectangle) in the Premium Array area which must be filled by the loonie soon. This action will make the pair go down and reach the nearest target at 1.3855 as the first target and 1.3733 as the second target as long as USD/CAD does not rebound higher than above 1.4093.

The overall bias of USD/CAD is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 16/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Amid the global COVID-19 pandemic and concerns about ongoing quarantine and rising unemployment, more and more people around the world are turning to cryptocurrencies, Russia is no exception.

Traffic on cryptographic exchanges in Russia in the last week of March 2020 increased by 5.56% compared to the February average, according to a study by Qrator Labs. The company has combined growing numbers with growing interest in currency markets. In addition, the report notes an increase in Russia's traffic on foreign currency markets by about 3%.

Growing traffic has emerged against the background of the first paid week off from work in Russia, which was originally scheduled for March 28 to April 5 to address the coronavirus epidemic. Ultimately, Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the national "non-working week" to 30 April.

In addition to the significant increase in cryptocurrency exchange traffic in Russia, Qrator Labs reportedly warned of a huge increase in DDoS attacks on cryptocurrency exchanges. According to the report, the number of DDoS attacks on cryptocurrency exchange platforms increased by as much as 486% over the same period.

Qrator Labs data on the rapid rise in cryptographic movement driven by coronavirus in Russia may provide additional evidence for the seemingly positive impact of a pandemic on global cryptographic markets. In March, interest in buying Bitcoins peaked in July 2019, according to Google search trend data.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $149.53 to test the key short-term technical resistance located at the level of $164.21. Despite the bounce, the bears are still in control over the market as the momentum is not increasing significantly. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $164.21. The key technical support remains at the level of $149.53, but is a case of a violation, the next support is seen at the level of $142.77. Any bullish attempt to rally is being used as a good chance to sell the ETH for a better price so far.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $213.33

WR2 - $193.74

WR1 - $179.45

Weekly Pivot - $159.49

WS1 - $145.21

WS2 - $125.44

WS3 - $111.55

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 16/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has warned that fraudsters intend to trigger a wave of cryptocurrency fraud related to coronavirus.

According to the FBI, the threat is universal, tenacious, opportunistic and extremely dangerous. The problem is complicated by the fact that a growing number of buyers now accept crypto, we read about sharpening.

"Fraudsters are using increased fear and uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic to steal your money and wash it in a complex cryptocurrency ecosystem," and attack victims of all ages, says the FBI.

Agents are convinced that fraudsters will adapt their offer to the current situation, perhaps pretending that they are new remote employees collecting "donations" via email, equipment suppliers working outside of established e-commerce, and even as "charities" that accept cryptocurrencies, which is a significant red flag.

Scams can also occur in more traditional methods, such as blackmail, but with a "twist": the scammer threatens to "infect you and / or your family with a coronavirus, unless payment is sent to the Bitcoin wallet."

Agents advise Internet users to use common sense, verify the legality of suppliers, stay away from their bank accounts and report blackmail and extortion attempts by law enforcement agencies.

It is not known if these pandemic scams are more or less effective than their traditional counterparts. Chainalysis research has shown that cryptocurrency scammers operate as often as they did before the crisis, although their earnings were significantly reduced by the sharp fluctuations of Bitcoin prices.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has keeps trading inside a narrow range between the levels of $6,796 - $6,908 for some time now as the liquidity evaporates form markets. The supply zone located between the levels of $6,796 - $6,908 is now the key short-term zone for both bulls and bears, so only a clear breakout of one of the levels will give the market participants the direction. Any breakout above this level would also mean a channel breakout as well, so it would be a strong signal for bulls. The larger time frame trend remains down, but the short-term momentum is slowly increasing, so the odds for an upwards breakout might be high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,127

WR2 - $7,746

WR1 - $7,416

Weekly Pivot - $7,017

WS1 - $6,690

WS2 - $6,300

WS3 - $5,960

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 16/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After the Pin Bar candlestick pattern at the top of the move up at 1.2645, the GBP/USD pair has fell out of the parallel channel. This last wave up has been made despite the overbought market conditions, but on strong and positive momentum, but now the short-term trend line do not provide the support anymore so the market is coming off the overbought conditions. The bears are in control of the market and the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.2411 and 1.2350. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2914

WR2 - 1.2699

WR1 - 1.2595

Weekly Pivot - 1.2369

WS1 - 1.2287

WS2 - 1.2048

WS3 - 1.1960

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 16/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has broken out of the wedge pattern as anticipated. The Bearish Engulfing pattern made at the top of the move at the level of 1.0990 has been the trigger for bears to more actively push on the rate and eventually the price has felt to the level of 1.0859. The momentum gone negative and the market is coming off the overbought levels as well, so more downside is expected. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0778 which is the key technical support for the EUR/USD in the short-term.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1207

WR2 - 1.1072

WR1 - 1.1024

Weekly Pivot - 1.0897

WS1 - 1.0839

WS2 - 1.0706

WS3 - 1.0650

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR/USD for April 16, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the pair may continue trading downwards from the level of 1.0912 (closing of yesterday's candle) with the first target at 1.0857 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). If this level is broken down, the price will continue to move downward with the target of 1.0822 - a 76.4% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will continue trading downward with the target of 1.0822 - a 76.4% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line).

A bullish reversal is also possible today from a pullback level of 61.8% - 1.0857 (red dashed line) with a target at 1.0893 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Germany is planning to lift the restrictions imposed during the fight against COVID-19

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Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, announced plans to gradually lift the restrictions imposed to fight the coronavirus pandemic. Social distancing will remain valid until May 3, and Merkel strongly advises wearing masks in public places.

According to Merkel, stores, with an area of up to 800 square meters, can resume business next week, as long as they have "hygiene plans".

Schools, on the other hand, will begin to open on May 4, thanks to the new safety measures regarding breaks and school buses. Priority will be given to students who pass the exams.

Car dealers, bicycle shops and bookstores can also resume business, regardless of their size. Hairdressers will also be allowed to open from May 4, as long as they follow strict hygiene measures.

The country "should remain vigilant with the virus, but still keep going," Merkel said. "We do not have time to maneuver," she added.

Large public gatherings, meetings, and celebrations are banned until August 31.

Germany is the last country in EU to start lifting restrictions.

Denmark has already reopened schools and nurseries for children under 11 years old.

Construction and production work has resumed in Spain.

On Tuesday, thousands of small shops opened in Austria. Moreover, from May 1, outdoor sports such as tennis, golf and athletics will be allowed.

In some regions of Italy, bookstores and children's clothing stores reopened.

Meanwhile, Belgium will maintain its restriction until at least May 3.

France extended its standard restrictions until May 11.

Travel ban is lifted in Ukraine, but temperature must be checked before entering another city.

Russia is the only country who tightened its restrictions. Crimea imposed a travel ban, so movement between cities is forbidden. Travelling inside cities, on the other hand, is allowed, as long as you have a passport, and the distance is no more than 100 meters from the place of registration written on the passport.

In March, Europe's largest economy underwent a recession. According to the Ministry, EU experienced "a drop in global demand, interruption of supply chains, changes in consumer behavior and investor uncertainty."

Economists and governments are increasingly concerned about the effects of the pandemic. The head of the International Monetary Fund warned that the world is facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Meanwhile, Europe expressed disappointment at Donald Trump's decision to cut funding for the World Health Organization (WHO).

According to Trump, WHO "failed to fulfill its primary responsibility" regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.

The head of the EU foreign ministry said that he "deeply regrets" US' decision, and reiterated that working together is the best strategy.

The Foreign Minister of Finland also tweeted that "US' decision to suspend WHO funding is a big disappointment." Finland will continue to support and increase funding for the organization this year.

US is the largest donor to WHO. Its withdrawal will disproportionately affect developing countries.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Instaforex Daily Analysis - 16th April 2020

Today we take a look at GBPJPY and see how we are going to play the bounce!

We use Fibonacci retracements, extensions, support/resistance, momentum and trend lines to identify trading opportunities in this exciting pair today!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 16, 2020

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EUR/GBP has barely been moving that last 24 hours and has been trading in a very narrow trading-range between 0.8685 - 0.8749. We continue to regard this narrow trading-range as a front-runner for a final dip close to 0.8621 to complete the corrective decline from 0.9499 and once the low is in place a new impulsive rally to above 0.9499 should be expected.

Only a direct break above 0.8793 will indicate a premature low has been found and the new impulsive rally to above 0.9499 is in motion.

R3: 0.8765

R2: 0.8745

R1: 0.8739

Pivot: 0.8702

S1: 0.8685

S2: 0.8650

S3: 0.8621

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 0.8635 or upon a break above 0.8765

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 16, 2020

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GBP/JPY has turned lower from resistance at 135.40 and all that's needed to confirm wave iv/ has completed and the final decline in wave v/ is in motion is a break below support at 133.69. As long as short-term key support at 133.69 is able to protect the downside, there remains a possibility that GBP/JPY will surpass resistance at 135.40 for a continuation towards 137.15, but at this point in time, we regard this option a very low possibility option and will be looking for a break below 133.69 for a new impulsive decline in wave v/ to below 123.99.

R3: 136.36

R2: 135.40

S1: 135.02

Pivot: 133.69

S1: 132.97

S2: 132.41

S3: 131.41

Trading recommendation:

We sold GBP at 134.35 and we have placed our stop at 135.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 16. Bears are returning the pound, nearest target is the support of 1.2402

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The rapid upward correction of the pair, which could be observed in the second half of the day, ended immediately after the price reached the 1.2573 level, from which I advised opening short positions yesterday. As we can see on the 5-minute chart, this entry brought more than 100 points of profit. Given that no important fundamental statistics are expected for the UK economy today, the focus will be on data on the US labor market. In the first half of the day, buyers will try to regain the resistance of 1.2501, a break above which can form a larger upward correction with a test of the 1.2573 level, where I advise taking profits. The longer-term goal will be a weekly high around 1.2632. However, more rational purchases are best considered with a downward correction to the low of 1.2402, and buy the pound immediately on the rebound in the expectation of a correction of 40-50 points within the day. Larger bulls will show themselves only after updating 1.2294.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound will be active after returning to the resistance of 1.2501, where a false breakout will be the first signal to open short positions. The nearest weekly target that bears will aim for is the support of 1.2402, the break of which will lead to a larger fall in GBP/USD to the area of a low of 1.2294, where I recommend fixing profits. If the activity from the sellers of the pound at the level of 1.2501 and after meeting the moving average, it will not be marked, it is best to postpone short positions until the test of larger resistance 1.2573, or sell the pound immediately to rebound from the high of 1.2632, since it is rather difficult to predict market behavior now.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.2450 will raise the pressure on the pound, while growth will be limited by the upper level at 1.2550.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 16. German economy will begin to function on April 20. Bears are moving the

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Yesterday's news that the German economy will begin to gradually open, and enterprises and companies will start to function on April 20, managed to stop the avalanche-like fall of the European currency. However, bears are still focused on updating new lows. In my review for the second half of the day, I advised opening short positions from the 1.0943 level, which made it possible for you to earn around 50 points. This is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. For today, the primary task of euro buyers will be to return the resistance of 1.0905 in the first half of the day, which determines the further upward correction in the pair. Consolidating on this range will lead to a larger increase in EUR/USD to the highest area of 1.0965, where I recommend taking profits. Weak German inflation could raise the pressure on the euro. Therefore, it is best to expect purchases in the event of a fall from the low of 1.0835, or even lower, from the support of 1.0772, where larger players will show themselves.

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To open short positions on EUR USD you need:

The primary task of sellers of the euro is to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.0905, just above which the moving averages pass, which will be a signal to open short positions. The main goal of this week is to pull down the euro to the support of 1.0835. However, weak reports on German inflation may lead to a sharper decline to the low of 1.0772, where I recommend taking profits. Traders will also focus on the report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US, which will be released in the afternoon, which may lead to the formation of a new wave of decline in the pair. In the scenario of EUR/USD growth above the resistance of 1.0905 in the first half of the day, it is best to return to short positions only for a rebound from the high of 1.0965, counting on a correction of 40-50 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bearish market sentiment.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.0860 will lead to a new wave of decline for the euro. You can sell on the rebound from the upper border in the area of 1.0935.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDJPY posts a candle close below ascending trendline support! Further drop to come!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 68.166

Reason for Entry: ascending trendline resistance

Take Profit : 66.486

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 68.912

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing high, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD testing downside confirmation, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.4058

Reason for Entry: horizontal pullback support

Take Profit :1.4277

Reason for Take Profit: 100% Fibonacci extension , 50% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.3849

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing low

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/CAD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.85820

Reason for Entry: horizontal overlap resistance, 100% fibonacci extension, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.82797

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support, 50%, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.87465

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 16, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro did not do anything unnecessary, nor did it make any false movements on Wednesday, turning down exactly from the MACD line on the daily chart. Simultaneously with the price reversal, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned down from the border of the growth territory (the exit above the zero line was insignificant, which can not even be called false). Now the euro's target is the embedded price channel line around 1.0610.

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This morning, the price retreated under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has consolidated on the declining trend zone. We are expecting the price to fall to the designated goal.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 16, 2020

GBP/USD

The warning reversal signals of the Marlin oscillator, which we mentioned in yesterday's review, turned out to be correct. The price did not grow any further and sharply fell, failing to reach the Fibonacci level of 138.2%. The price returned to the area below the MACD line on the daily chart, which indicates false growth on Tuesday and, as a consequence, the prospect of a decline in the medium term. Fibonacci levels of 161.8% and 200.0% at price levels of 1.2235 and 1.1935, respectively, become the nearest significant targets.

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The price has consolidated below the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Yesterday there was even a retest of this line from below, which strengthened the resistance. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone, that is, a declining trend. A signal of further decline, to the first target 1.2235 will be when the price drifts under yesterday's low of 1.2435.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on April 16, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar's exit over the indicator lines of balance and MACD, which occurred on Tuesday, turned out to be false. Yesterday, the price moved back under technical support, it ended the day underneath. The Marlin oscillator turned down on the daily scale. The aussie's first goal is the nearest line of the price channel at around 0.6180. Overcoming support opens the second target of 0.5805.

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The double divergence on the Marlin oscillator fully worked out on the four-hour chart, as a result of which the price went below the balance and MACD line. The situation has gone downward, we expect the Australian dollar to fall towards these goals.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 16, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen was caught between two fires yesterday - on the one hand, it was weakened by the US dollar, which was gaining strength in the broad market, on the other hand, it was fueled by the stock market, which was declining, and forcing investors to buy the yen as a safe haven currency. The main dilemma was whether the fall of the S&P 500 by 2.20% a temporary phenomenon or the beginning of a new wave of panic? As a result, the yen remained in the accumulation range of 106.88-107.75.

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Today, in the Asian session, the price is trying to go up from the consolidation range, but around the 108.15 level, the price is waiting for the resistance of the MACD line on the four-hour chart.

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Without breaking the downward trend, the price can reach this resistance, but it can rise even higher, to the MACD line on the daily scale (108.50), in this case there will be a clear exit from the accumulation zone and its expansion. When the price overcomes support at around 106.88, it will open a scenario for its decline to 102.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 16. "The Great Crisis". The IMF forecasts the most disastrous year in the last 90 years.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 47.9038

If the euro was fixed below the moving average, but returned to it very quickly and it is not clear whether the fall will continue, the pound has clearly adjusted to the moving midline, so the upward movement has good chances of resumption. The technical picture now allows for both versions of the trend, since the higher channel of linear regression is directed down, and the lower channel is directed up. The Heiken Ashi indicator is still directed downward, but in the near future it may turn up. Volatility has increased slightly again.

While the US dollar has regained the support of traders, we are only once again forced to note that yesterday's collapse is in no way related to macroeconomic statistics or the fundamental background. If you carefully follow all the reports, it becomes clear that the US dollar should have fallen both in pairs with the euro and in pairs with the pound. If you pay attention to the statements of Donald Trump, as well as another pile of forecasts about the state of the world, European and American economies, it is obvious that they are all waiting for almost synchronous reduction, and it is impossible to calculate the exact losses at the moment. Therefore, we do not see any specific reasons for the strengthening of the US currency on April 15. Based on this, there are two possible options. The first is technical. Traders started buying the US currency solely on technical grounds. In pair with the pound, the dollar began to rise in value after six consecutive days of falling. Thus, a banal correction was needed. The second option involves the intervention of major market players, corporations and banks, which bought dollars for their needs, but in very large volumes, which led to the growth of the dollar. Thus, on Thursday, April 16, we still do not expect that market participants will react zealously and work out macroeconomic statistics. In any case, no news is expected from the UK, and only one important report will be received from the United States – on applications for unemployment benefits.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund published a document outlining the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the world economy. According to the IMF, the world economy will lose 9 trillion dollars in 2020, and the year itself will be the most disastrous since the Great Depression. The IMF believes that world GDP will decline by 3%, American GDP will lose 5.9%, and the European Union - 7.5%. And China, where the pandemic began at the end of 2019, will even manage to show growth of 1.2% at the end of the year. According to IMF experts, the current crisis caused by the pandemic is incomparable. The introduction of quarantine measures has led to an extremely rapid disruption of all production chains and capacities, which "has not been seen by any person in his life". Before the "coronavirus crisis", the mortgage crisis of 2008-2009 was considered the worst since the Great Depression. However, this crisis is nothing compared to the current one. In 2008, the world economy declined by only 0.08%, while now it is expected to be at least minus 3%. The IMF also notes in its report that current forecasts provide for the end of outbreaks in all countries of the world in the second quarter of 2020. And in the second half of the year, the "coronavirus" will not particularly bother humanity at all and all restrictions will be lifted. Whether this is true or not, no one can say now. There is still no vaccine, and according to the latest data from doctors, the virus can mutate, it can be completely asymptomatic. And all this complicates the fight against it. Thus, it is possible that the growth rate of diseases will be reduced, as well as the death rate, but this does not mean that the COVID-2019 virus will stop spreading. The head of the Research Department of the IMF, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, in turn, said that in principle, any economic forecasting is almost always wrong, because the economy is constantly experiencing some kind of shock or just changes that lead it off the original path, on the basis of which the forecasts were built. Thus, almost all economic forecasts are very conditional, however, they should not be considered a "weather forecast" that will either come true or not. If the "lockdown" in the world is prolonged or new shocks occur, the loss of the world economy may be much more than 3%. The IMF itself holds the view that saving human lives is much more important than saving economies. However, some countries are already beginning to lift quarantine measures, such as Iran. Some countries did not introduce them at all, such as Sweden and Belarus. And the chief epidemiologist of Sweden said that it is even good if the majority of the country's citizens get sick with "coronavirus" and form a collective immunity.

At the same time, the UK Fiscal Responsibility Authority said the economy could lose 35% of GDP in the second quarter. This reduction may be the highest since 1956. Not because there was a larger reduction in 1956, but because similar research and calculations were just beginning in 1956. As in the rest of the world, the "coronavirus crisis" is expected to be quickly overcome. The economies of all countries of the world will begin to recover in 2021, but it is unknown how long it will take to fully recover to the levels of 2019. This forecast is based on the assumption that general quarantine measures will remain in place in the Foggy Albion for 3 months, and then gradually weaken over the next three months. Unemployment in the UK is also expected to rise to 10%.

Finally, Boris Johnson said yesterday through his representative that he is not going to stop funding WHO, as did his friend Donald Trump. "Coronavirus is a global challenge, it is important that all countries of the world jointly fight this common threat," the statement said.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair has stopped falling and is currently 120 points. Over the past four days, the activity of market participants has been steadily growing, although in general, of course, this indicator has fallen very much relative to the values of a month ago. On Thursday, April 16, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2422 and 1.2662. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will signal the end of the downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2512

S2 - 1.2451

S3 - 1.2390

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2573

R2 - 1.2634

R3 - 1.2695

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar pair started a corrective movement on the 4-hour timeframe, which may end near the moving average. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the correction to complete and resume buying the pound with the targets of 1.2634 and 1.2662. A rebound from the moving average line already signals the end of the correction. It is recommended to open sell positions no earlier than when the bears overcome the moving average with the first goal at the level of 1.2329.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 16. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: losses from the epidemic of the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -25.9038

The euro/dollar currency pair starts the fourth trading day of the week near the moving average line. During yesterday's trading, the pair fell sharply to the Murray level of "1/8"-1.0864 but immediately rebounded from it. Thus, at the moment, it is unclear whether the downward movement will continue or the euro/dollar pair will try to resume its upward movement. One way or another, we note an increase in volatility in the currency market, which affects almost all currency pairs.

While the US dollar is again becoming more expensive, oil is again becoming cheaper, and traders are again beginning to show signs of panic. Donald Trump is stopping funding the WHO. We have already written about this in the final article for April 15. A little later, it also became known that the payments promised by the US government in connection with the crisis caused by the COVID-2019 epidemic are being delayed because of what Donald Trump wants... to have his personal seal on every check. Thus, all payments will be delayed for several days, and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is personally instructed to make sure that each check has the inscription "President Donald Trump".

At the same time, it is not just the United States that are thinking about easing quarantine measures. In the European Union, where the first signs of passing the "peak" of the epidemic are noted, a "road map" for lifting the quarantine has been drawn up. This was stated by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on April 15. "Our recommendations are based on three main factors: slowing the spread of the coronavirus, sufficient health system capacity, and surveillance and monitoring capabilities," von der Leyen said. The head of the European Commission noted that so far we are not talking about the complete lifting of the quarantine, these are just plans. The European Commission recommends removing the quarantine measures gradually and carefully analyzing each relaxation. According to the European Commission's plan, the first factor is a significant reduction in the number of new coronavirus infections and a reduction in the number of deaths over a long period of time. The second criterion is the capabilities of the healthcare system. Will it be able to cope with the influx of patients if the number of patients increases as a result of the removal of some of the quarantine measures? The third factor is monitoring what is happening. Each step of removing the quarantine should be carefully analyzed. This requires mass testing for the COVID-2019 virus in order to make accurate and real conclusions about the results of lifting the quarantine. It is also reported that each EU member state can decide for itself what actions related to quarantine it should take, and how to meet each criterion. However, all EU members must adhere to the scientific principle in countering COVID-2019, and EU member states must clearly coordinate their actions with other members of the Alliance. EU member states should show solidarity and respect for other countries that have been most affected by the epidemic.

It is also reported that first of all, the removal of quarantine measures will concern educational institutions, then shopping centers will open, and only last of all – places of public catering. At the very end, the internal and external borders of the European Union will be opened. "Travel restrictions will first be lifted between areas with a relatively low level of virus spread," the European Commission said. Also, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the "coronavirus" epidemic has already cost the EU three trillion euros.

On Thursday, April 16, certain macroeconomic statistics will be available again to market participants. However, yesterday, we already witnessed how macroeconomic data is being processed. No way. Thus, the probability that today traders rush to analyze reports and build their trading strategies based on them is low. However, there is one report that clearly deserves attention and cannot be ignored. But first things first. Early this morning, German inflation will be published. Core inflation is forecast to fall from 1.7% y/y to 1.3% y/y, while core inflation is forecast to fall from 1.7% to 1.4% y/y. This report is the least interesting. Next, the change in industrial production in the European Union for February will be published. That is, for the month when the pandemic was not yet raging in the EU. Even so, it is expected to decrease by 2.0-2.2% in annual terms. This report is also unlikely to cause any market reaction.

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After that, the next report will be released on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Recall that the last three reports showed a total of 16.7 million applications for benefits. The forecast for the week of April 4-10 indicates a new 5.1 million requests. Thus, the total number of Americans who lost their jobs in one month could be 21.8 million. From our point of view, this is a huge figure that cannot fail to affect the American economy. However, now we are more interested in whether there will be any market reaction to the new unemployment report? Almost any value of the report should cause the US currency to fall. You need to be prepared for this option. However, no one knows what the market will do in reality. We remind you that the market is not just small traders who carefully track macroeconomic statistics. They are also major players who often drive the market. And if the situation is as it is now (panic, market collapse, epidemic, quarantine, and crisis), then large traders carry out currency operations based on their own strategies, without paying attention to statistics. This is approximately what we have seen in the last month and a half.

From a technical point of view, the trend has now changed to a downward one, and the pair has worked out the Murray level of "1/8"-1.0864. Thus, the downward movement may continue within the new downward trend. This conclusion can be made if the pair's quotes go below the level of 1.0780 – the previous local minimum. Otherwise, it is likely to move inside the side channel for some time. It should also be noted that there is a possibility that market participants are again starting to look at the dollar as the most secure currency. Therefore, the US currency can become more expensive without any reason. In all this situation, we recommend paying close attention to technical indicators, especially "fast" ones, such as Heiken Ashi.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as a whole continues to decline, but at the end of the past day, it rose to 87 average points. Thus, we are afraid that now a new wave of panic and strong volatility will not begin, in which it is extremely difficult and dangerous to trade. On April 15, we expect the pair's quotes to move between the levels of 1.0833 and 1.1007. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top may indicate the resumption of the upward trend and help to overcome the moving average.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0864

S2 - 1.0742

S3 - 1.0620

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0986

R2 - 1.1108

R3 - 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair started moving down, but at the moment, it is trading near the moving average, so it is unclear whether it has been overcome. Thus, first of all, traders are advised to wait for some time until the price "detaches" from the moving average line. If it "flips off" upwards, it is recommended to trade for an increase with the goals of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986 and the volatility level of 1.1007. It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair if the price "flips off" down, with targets at 1.0864 and 1.0833.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com