Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for December 12, 2014

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The price zone of 1.2880-1.2900 (corresponding to the upper limit of the previous broken channel) was targeted month ago. However, bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840 where the depicted head and shoulders reversal pattern was established.


A bearish breakout off the bullish channel took place soon, thus confirming a flag continuation pattern. Bearish projected target already reached the level around 1.2490.


As anticipated earlier, daily fixation below 1.2490-1.2500 (the origin of the previous bullish swing expressed one month ago) extends the bearish targets towards the price level of 1.2200.


After bears could fixate below 1.2360, the EUR/USD pair has shown bullish recovery again above it due to the lack of bearish pressure below 1.2255.


Price level of 1.2200 remains the projected target of the current bearish flag pattern as long as 1.2500 remains defended by the EUR/USD bears.


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The double-top pattern was expressed last week on the 4H chart around 1.2500. As anticipated, fixation below neckline (price level of 1.2430) enhanced the bearish trend on the market.


Yesterday, bulls spiked up to 1.2496. However, the market came back to trade below 1.2400. It could represent a failed bullish breakout off the upper limit of the depicted movement channel.


Fixation below the technical key level of 1.2370 is mandatory to maintain enough bearish momentum to push towards 1.2200.


On the other hand, 4H closure above the price zone of 1.2460-1.2480 ( Wednesday's daily high ) invalidates the suggested bearish scenario temporarily exposing price levels of 1.2580 for retesting.


Trade recommendations:


As anticipated before, intraday traders can SHORT the pair anywhere around 1.2410 -1.2450 (prominent Fibonacci Levels). Stop Loss should be set at a four-hour closure above 1.2470.


Target level should be located around the price level of 1.2200.


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EUR/NZD analysis for December 12, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading upward. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5970 in an average volume. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5835 held successfully, and it made price start with strong upward movement. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance level and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5975 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6060. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe demand on the market. So, be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since price is testing our resistance level.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5947


R2: 1.5979


R3: 1.6031


Support levels:


S1: 1.5843


S2: 1.5811


S3: 1.5759


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since our resistance level is on the test.


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Gold analysis for December 12, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upward. The price tested the level of 1,231.79 in a volume above the average. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,186.00 is broken, so, we may expect potential testing of 1,255.00-1,265.00 levels. Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,218.00 held successfully and caused price to start with upward movement. My advice is to look for buying opportunities near the lows (after retracement). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe demand in a volume above the average. So, selling gold at this stage looks risky, watch for potential buying oppoprtunities.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,231.62


R2: 1,235.64


R3: 1,242.13


Support levels:


S1: 1,218.64


S2: 1,214.62


S3: 1,208.13


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for December 12, 2014

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Overview :



  • According to the previous events, the price of the AUD/USD pair has still been moving between the levels of 0.8308 and 0.8214. As it is known, if the trend is downward, then the strength of the currency pair will be defined as following: USD is in uptrend and AUD is in downtrend. Consequently, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 0.8308 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels) on the H1 chart. Additionally, it should be noted that the range today will be about 73 pips. Thereupon, sell at the price of 0.8308 with the first target at 0.8250, it might resume to 0.8214 in order to test the double bottom. At the same time, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Accordingly, your stop loss should be placed above the 0.8345 level.


Intraday technical levels :


Date: 12/12/2014


Pair: AUD/USD



  • R3: 0.8520

  • R2: 0.8447

  • R1: 0.8360

  • PP: 0.8287

  • S1: 0.8200

  • S2: 0.8127

  • S3: 0.8040


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 12, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • The market of the EUR/USD pair will turn to bearish sentiment from the level of 1.2470. Additionally, the resistance will be set at the level of 1.2489. Also, we expect a new range of 97 pips today. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell at the 1.2470 or 1.2489 prices with the first target at 1.2405. Furthermore, it will continue in downtrend in order to keep its bearish movement towards 1.2371 (it should also be noted that the level of 1.2371 is going to form double bottom). Nevertheless, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Accordingly, the stop loss should be placed above 1.2494 (double tops in the H1 chart) at the price of 1.2515.


Notes :



  • Support 1 and resistance 1 are going to set at the levels of 1.2371 and 1.2489 respectively

  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.

  • We expect a new range about 208 pips this week.

  • The key level will set at the level of 1.2426.


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#USDX Technical analysis for December 12, 2014

The Dollar index although it bounced off support it did not manage to remain strong and is pulling back down. The next couple of sessions will be critical for the medium-term trend of the index. The short-term trend is neutral as neither bulls nor bears manage to keep the upper hand.


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Red line = resistance


Blue line = support


The Dollar index has short-term support at 87.90 and resistance at 88.85. Price has been rejected in the upper cloud boundaries and this is not a good sign as it now moves below and out of the cloud. Breaking below the support level will most probably signal an important top was made at 89.55 and we are at the beginning of a bigger reversal. Breaking below support and closing below 87.50 will be the last stand for bulls.


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The weekly chart is not looking good. This weekly candle may signal more downside action as it was the case in early September when we formed the 1st bullish flag. Bulls need to be very cautious if price breaks 87.50. I will turn bearish if we close below 87.50 expecting to test 86.50 very fast.


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Gold Technical analysis for December 12, 2014

Gold price continues to trade below important resistance of $1,240. As long as price is below that resistance level, we should expect a pullback towards $1,200 at least. Sell signal will be given if $1,215 is broken. The trend is sideways and the levels that give buy or sell signals are very clear.


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Red line = horizontal support of yesterdays lows


Blue line = trend line support


Gold price continues to trade sideways. Price is above support at $1,215 and as long as price is above that levels, then bulls still have a chance for another move higher. Resistance at $1,240 is critical and another rejection at that area will be a bearish signal that could push Gold back below $1,200.


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Gold is making higher highs and higher lows. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and as long as Gold price does not break $1,180 then bulls have the upper hand. If $1,180 is broken we should expect to see new lows below $1,130. Until then, bulls still have many chances of seeing $1,270.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 12, 2014

General overview for 12/12/2014 08:15 CET


The market has broken out of the black channel yesterday but it was capped by the golden trend line resistance after making a local high at the level of 148.04. Currently, this upward wave progression might be considered as wave -i- blue, but as long as the level of 148.32 is not clearly broken, the corrective cycle might not necessary be completed. The price might get back to the channel to complete one more wave to the downside. The initial target projection for the downside wave is at the level of 145.70, but it might extend even lower.


Support/Resistance:


151.04 - WR1


149.76 - Technical Resistance


149.00 - Weekly Pivot


148.04 - Intraday Resistance


148.32 - WS1


146.42 - Intraday Support


146.34 - WS2


Trading recommendations:


Day traders: unfortunately, sell orders from the level of 147.37 have been closed on BE unless you have closed your trades manually (as the TP was missed by mere 7 pips). The price is now in the exact middle of the intraday range, so trading should now be limited and traders should wait for one of the important levels breakout. The bias is still to the upside in near and medium term.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 12, 2014

General overview for 12/12/2014 07:55 CET


As anticipated yesterday, the upward wave progression is unfolding nicely and the first target at the level of 1.1519 has been hit. Currently, the market is in the corrective cycle where wave c purple is missing for now. The target level for this wave is 1.1500. The rebound is expected from this level, that will eventually break out above the last temporary high at the level of 1.1550 and hit the last target this week at the level of 1.1579.


Support/Resistance:


1.1579 - WR2


1.1550 - Intraday Resistance


1.1519 - WR1


1.1500 - Intraday Support


1.1416 - Weekly Pivot


1.1396 - Intraday Support


1.1357 - WS1


1.1339 - Leading Diagonal Invalidation Level


Trading recommendations:


Day traders: buy stop entry from Wednesday from the level of 1.1460 has hit the first target at the level of 1.1519 and it might be still kept open as the TP is at the level of 1.1579. SL at break even.


Swing traders: please remember that the uptrend is still intact, and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.1189 invalidates the mid-term bullish outlook.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 12 - 2014

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Technical summary:


We are still looking for support at 1.5789 to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.5981 confirming that wave ii is over and wave iii higher to 1.6526, where wave iii will be 161.8% of wave i. Even though it's hard to believe, then the trend is still up here. It feels like we have traded in the same area forever now. However, once the resistance line and resistance at 1.6200 gives away, the way higher should be cleared for acceleration higher.


Trading recommendation:


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 12 - 2014

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Technical summary:


The correction from 149.13 is behaving as expected. We are still looking for a wave c lower to the first target at 144.78. Wave c could extend and cause a deeper decline towards the 38.2% corrective target or even the 50% corrective target. When wave (ii) becomes an expanded flat like we see it here, then we always expect wave (iii) to extend, but more about that, when it becomes time to look for wave three higher. For now, we should stay below 148.25 for a break below 146.42 confirming the decline to 144.78.


Trading recommendation:


We are short in EUR from 147.97 with stop placed at 148.35. We will place our take profit at 147.85. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 147.20 with the same stop and stop-profit.


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Forecast on Gold For December 12, 2014

The yellow metal prices drifted after the publication of the U.S. jobs and retail sales. Today, the focus has shifted to PPI, core PPI, and prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment. The prices took support at 21hrsma and $1,215.00. The Russian central bank decision supported the prices throughout the day. The Russian central bank raised interest rates to 10.50%. The metal made a double top at $1,237.90 and corrected a bit at yesterday's session. Ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week, the metal is looking mildly strong. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to undertake monetary policy review at a 2-day meeting next week 16-17 December, 2014. The policy meeting will be keenly watched for any hints on the timing of the interest rates hike. The safe buying will trigger above $1,240.00. At yesterday's session, we recommended selling below $1,223.00 and it indeed gave good money. The prices successfully held at the support of a 2-week trend line; they are consolidating above it. In case if the prices fall below the trend line, we can expect $1,212.00 and $1,209.00 to act as other support levels.


Strong momentum only above $1,240.00.


Double top is at $1,237.90.


Panic selling will take place below $1,209.0 at $1,200.00 and $1,192.00 levels.


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Technical Analysis of EUR/JPY for December 12, 2014

IMPACT ON THE EURO -


The second allotment of the TLRO came in at 129.84 billion Euros, but it was expected at 148.84 billion Euros. Today, the focus has shifted to the industrial production report, the employment change data, and German wholesale price index. We are expecting industrial production to rise by 0.2% or 0.3% after a progress in October. As for the employment data, we are expecting the same. Speaking about Germany's WPI, we are expecting 0.3% growth after a 0.6% fall.


Technical view -


The cross managed to close above 20Dsma at yesterday's session. The cross managed to pause its 3-day losing streak. Today, the cross opened with a bullish buas, opened lower 147.24. It has been facing strong resistance at 20hrsma and support around 147.20. In case if the prices manage to trade above 20hrsma, it can challenge 147.72, 147.95, and 148.05. The trading pattern is framed between 147.20 and 147.70. We can expect strong upswing momentum only above 148.10 and 34hrsma levels. On the h4 chart, the prices are closed and trading below a 3-week trend line. Until the prices close above the trend line, bears have an upper hand in the near term.


Trade: sell below 147.20.


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Review and forecast of USD/CAD for December 12, 2014

IMPACT ON THE USD-


Today, the focus has shifted to PPI, core PPI, and prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Yesterday, the economic data gave another uptick to the economy. In the week ending December 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 294,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 297,000. The 4-week moving average was 299,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 299,000, according to the source from DOL. Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November showing utmost growth in eight months. The lower crude oil prices are affecting greatly the retail sales data.


IMPACT ON THE CAD-


The Canada new housing pricing index rose 0.1% in October, following an identical increase in September.


TECHNCIAL VIEW


The pair erased the double top formation and gave a strong close at yesterday's session. Today, the pair opened with a bullish bias, but was unable to break the previous day's high at 1.1549. As of now, the pair made a high at 1.1548 levels. We have been recommending buying on every dip with the targets at 1.1570, 1.1640, and 1.1740 on a positional basis. We still recommend the same strategy. Today, bulls can hardly hold the gains above 1.1476. In case if the prices close above 1.1502 on a daily basis, it can challenge 1.1540, 1.1565, and 1.1575 in the near term. At yesterday's session, the pair met the criteria and touched 1.1540. Again, we recommend fresh buying above 1.1550 with the targets at 1.1565, 1.1575, and 1.1590. The intraday support exists at 1.1500. On the h4 chart, the pair gave an upswing to running symmetric triangle breakout height of 145 pips and a minor ascending triangle breakout height of 103. Both the triangle breakouts are aiming at the 1.1604 levels.


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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for December 12, 2014

IMPACT ON THE EURO-


The second allotment of the TLRO came in at 129.84 billion Euros, but it was expected at 148 84 billion Euros. Today, the focus has shifted to the industrial production report, employment change data, and German wholesale price index. We are expecting industrial production to rise by 0.2% or 0.3% after a progress in October. As for the employment data, we are expecting the same. Speaking about Germany's WPI, we are expecting 0.3% growth after a 0.6% fall.


IMPACT ON THE USD-


Today, traders are focused on PPI, core PP,I and prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment.


TECHNICAL VIEW


The pair made a triple top at 1.2448 (rounded to 1.2450) and closed below 20Dsma. At the session on Wednesday, we recommended buying at 1.2400 with the targets at 1.2460, 1.2500, and 1.2560. At yesterday's session, the pair made a high at 1.2497 and turned back to the lows again. The pair has parallel support at 1.2387 and 1.2360. Today, the pair opened below the previous close and is trading below that. We recommend Intraday fresh selling below 1.2360 with the targets at 1.2340 and 1.2300. Bears hold the grip, until the prices close below 1.2450 on a daily closing basis. On the higher side, it has resistance at 1.2420 and 1.2430.


Trade: sell below 1.2360.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 12, 2014

EUR/USD: EUR/USD is now at a critical stage in which there is no clear direction. It is either price would break below the support line at 1.2300 to make the recent bearish outlook become strengthened further, or price would break above the resistance line at 1.2500 to underline bulls’ supremacy. However, the former scenario is more likely.


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USD/CHF: USD/CHF is now at a critical stage in which there is no clear direction. It is either price would break below the support level at 0.9600 to make a bearish outlook conspicuous, or price would break above the resistance level at 0.9800 in order to strengthen the recent bullish trend. However, the latter scenario is more likely.


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GBP/USD: The Cable is still engaged in a slow and steady bullish run – something that has maintained the novel bullish bias. Slowly and steadily, price could reach the distribution territory at 1.5800, and this is something that would strengthen the new bullish bias more.


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USD/JPY: This market now looks difficult to trade and it would be OK to wait till there would be a clear direction. Nevertheless, the most likely direction would be northwards. Price is expected to manage its way above the supply level at 120.00, after which things would turn bullish again.


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EUR/JPY: The recent Bullish Confirmation Pattern in this market has been considered useless as bulls and bears continue their battle. It is better to stay away until there is a clear direction because there are mixed signals in the market. For example, the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 (showing a bearish signal), while the RSI period 14 is above the level 50 (showing a bullish signal).


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 12, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German WPI m/m, Industrial Production m/m, and Employment Change q/q. Besides, the US will release the economic data too such as the PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.2455.


Strong Resistance:1.2448.


Original Resistance: 1.2436.


Inner Sell Area: 1.2424.


Target Inner Area: 1.2395.


Inner Buy Area: 1.2366.


Original Support: 1.2354.


Strong Support: 1.2342.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.2335.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 12, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m. Today, the US will also release some important reports such as PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


Resistance. 3: 119.54.


Resistance. 2: 119.31.


Resistance. 1: 119.07.


Support. 1: 118.79.


Support. 2: 118.55.


Support. 3: 118.32.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 12, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair dropped to 1.5100 levels yesterday, before raising back into 1.5230 levels as seen here. The pair could face intermediary resistance from the backside of support trend line around current levels. Please note that the pair has bounced from fibonacci 0.786 support and just ahead of 1.5075 levels, which is past support as seen here. It is recommended to remain ling for now, risk at 1.5000 levels. Bulls should remain in control till prices remain above 1.5075 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.5075 levels, followed by 1.4950 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5350/60 levels, followed by 1.5450/75 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop at 1.5000, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for December 12, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has taken support from the $1,215.00 region yesterday. Please also note that the metal has bounced off the immediate trend line support as well. A push above $1,240.00 now, could bring the metal at $1,255.00 levels at least, on the flip side a break below the trend line support could test lower levels, before the rally resumes. Immediate support is seen at $1,215.00 (interim), followed by $1,190.00, $1,142.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,255.00 and higher up respectively. It is recommended to look to buy Gold on further dips towards $1,180.00 levels from here on.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now, look to buy lower. Aggressive setup is to remain long, stop at $1,213.00, the target is at $1,255.00.


Good luck!


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Daily analysis of USDX for December 12, 2014

The USDX is forming a bearish pattern below the level of 88.63, which is a very strong resistance level. However, remember that this instrument is still alive in the current bullish bias, since the USDX is trying to make corrective moves to the support level of 87.35 in the medium term. The MACD indicator is moving into the negative territory.


Daily chart's resistance levels: 88.63 / 90.40


Dailychart's support levels: 87.35 / 86.20


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On the H1 chart, the USDX is consolidated in the bullish trend above the 200-day moving average. However, the level of 88.71 has rejected the price action of this instrument in the short term. So, the USDX is likely to fall to the support level of 88.43. For now, caution is advised when placing sell orders above the support level of 88.43. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought area.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 88.43 / 88.71


H1 chart's support levels: 88.15 / 87.86


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 88.71, take profit is at 88.99, and stop loss is at 88.44.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 12, 2014

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair keeps on trying to build the road to reach the 200-day moving average, because this pair still remains strong in the bearish trend. However, in the short term, to enable GBP/USD to perform the mentioned above, this pair has to rise to the resistance level of 1.5883 to make a breakout at the level of 1.5746.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 1.5746 / 1.5883


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5642 / 1.5506


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The GBP/USD pair has done again one rebound on the 200-day moving average. This pair has been unable to consolidate below the strong support level of 1.5686, though the chances that the pair will attempt to strengthen the bearish trend in the short term are very high. So, it is advisable to wait for a breakout in that area to continue placing sell orders.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5739 / 1.5810


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5686 / 1.5632


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5686, take profit is at 1.5632, and stop loss is at 1.5739.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 11, 2014

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Overview:


The GBP/USD pair has been moving downward respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated. Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.6450, 1.6170, and 1.5940 where the upper limit of the channel came to meet the pair.


The price zone of 1.5890-1.5870 constituted a transient daily support that paused the bearish movement for a few days. However, bears quickly managed to push lower.


Bullish fixation above 1.5890-1.5900 was essential to maintain the bullish scenario, however, bears have failed to do so. Instead, the market pushed towards the support level located around 1.5600 where the lower limit of the ongoing channel was previously located.


The GBP/USD pair looked quite oversold. Bullish correction was anticipated as the pair has tested a prominent WEEKLY support (price level of 1.5600) corresponding to multiple previous tops established back in May and June 2013. That is why the sideway movement is still taking place roughly between 1.5600 and 1.5780.


On the other hand, a break below the recent bottom around 1.5580 invalidates this bullish scenario and renders the current consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with projected target at 1.5410.


Trading recommendations:


As anticipated, a previous valid BUY opportunity was suggested at retesting of the same price level of 1.5600. TP levels should be set at 1.5760, 1.5820 and 1.5880. SL remains as a daily closure below 1.5580


On the other hand, a low risk SELL entry will probably be offered around 1.5880-1.5940 (Important Fibonacci Levels slightly above the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel ).


Stop Loss should be located above 1.5950.


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