USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 19, 2015

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Overview:


During the past few weeks, the USD/CAD pair established a temporary consolidation zone between the price levels of 1.1560 and 1.1670. This price zone roughly corresponds to 61.8% prominent WEEKLY Fibonacci level bullish breakout above which allowed bulls to reach the price levels of 1.1850, 1.1950 and recently 1.2045 where new highs have been established.


The nearest H4 support that is the price zone of 1.1800-1.1750 provided excellent SUPPORT for the pair on Thursday. LONG positions were suggested at retesting.


Note the newly established short-term channel being expressed since the price level of 1.1750 extended up to 1.2050. It happened because the market looks quite overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of the long-term movement channel. Hence, bulls should be conservative with their targets.


This minor channel pattern may indicate bearish reversal, if confirmed, with H4 bearish breakdown of the lower limit and the recent support around the levels of 1.1870-1.1900.


Otherwise, if bulls keep defending the recent INTRADAY SUPPORT around 1.1920 down to 1.1850, the market bias will remain positive probably targeting at 1.2090.


Trading recommendations:


LONG positions are suggested at retesting the lower limit of the DAILY channel and 61.8% Fibonacci level (1.1750 - 1.1700) with SL placed below 1.1650.


Counter-trend risky traders can wait either for a bullish spike towards 1.2090, or for the H4 bearish breakdown below 1.1850 to SELL the pair aiming for 1.1750 and 1.1700.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 19, 2015.


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be bouncing off just ahead of its major support at 134.00 levels. The pair touched lower at 134.70/80 levels last week but did not penetrate below 134.00 levels. The bigger picture depicted here is clearly indicating that a long-term support trend line has been broken. A possible test of the support turned into resistance line could be due now at least 140.00 levels and could extend up to 143.00 levels. It is recommended to remain long from last week and also add fresh longs now, risk remains below 134.00 for now. Intraday dips could be regarded as buying opportunities. Immediate support is seen at 134.00 levels while resistance is seen at 138.80 levels respectively. Bulls might be preparing for a counter trend rally for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below 134.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 19, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has been trading in a wide and volatile range between 1.2600 and 1.3400 levels and is forming a cone type consolidation on the H4 chart view (a monthly chart view has been depicted here for the bigger picture). The shorter time frames are indicating a potential counter trend rally from the current levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.29/10 levels, followed by 1.2800 and 1.2650 while resistance is seen at 1.3380 levels, followed by 1.3500 and higher respectively. It is recommended to initiate 50% long positions at the current price (1.3170/80), risk remains at 1.2850/60 for now.Looking at the larger picture here, it looks like the pair has hit Fibonacci 0.618 resistance at sub 1.5500/50 levels last week and the next lower target would be below 1.1500 levels in the weeks to come.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate 50% long positions now, stop at 1.2850/60, target is open.


Good luck!


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EUR/NZD analysis for January 19, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading sideways around the price of 1.4900. According to the daily time frame, we can observe strong supply in an ultra high volume (selling climax) in the background, so selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky. Our Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.4900 is on the test. Be careful when selling since we may expect reaction from buyers. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe selling climax in the background and demand in an average volume. Any larger demand in a high volume may confirm further larger bullish corrective phase. I found resistance around the price of 1.5050 (swing low like resistance). Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.4900 in a stong price action, we may see a potential testing of the level of 1.4425.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.4904


R2: 1.4937


R3: 1.4990


Support levels:


S1: 1.4798


S2: 1.4765


S3: 1.4712


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair at this stage since the price is testing Fibonacci expansion 161.8%.


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Technical analysis of Silver for January 19, 2015.


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver pushed through the initial resistance at the $17.80/82 levels on Friday. The metal is unfolding into a potential inverted head and shoulder reversal as it has been discussed earlier. The metal could retrace lower through $16.75/$17.00 levels again, before rallying higher towards $18.20/30 and $19.20 levels respectively. It is still recommended to hold positions taken earlier and look for adding further on dips, some profits could be fixed around $18.30 levels. Immediate support could be seen around $16.60/70 levels followed by $16.20/30 and lower while resistance is seen around $18.30 levels and $19.20 respectively (Fibonacci levels).


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, move stop to $16.00 levels, target is $18.30 and $19.20.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for January 19, 2015.


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has raised through the $1,282.00 levels as seen here, and is testing the sloping trend line resistance at the moment. Also the initial Fibonacci extension has been met at the $1,279.00 levels, hence a pullback could be expected. It is recommended to remain flat for now and watch for a reaction at the trend line resistance around the $1,278.00/79.00 levels. On the flip side, a push higher from here could reach the $1,304.00/05.00 levels as depicted here. Immediate support is now seen at the $1,235.00/40.00 levels, followed by $1,210.00, $1,170.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,300.00/05, followed by $1,320.00, $1,340.00 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now and look for buying on dips.


Good luck!


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Gold analysis for January 19, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1,281.30 in a high volume. Our Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1,265.00 got broken, so we may expect testing the level of 1,292.00. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe sideways market around the price of 1,277.00. Be careful when selling gold and watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows. We got support level at the price of 1,266.00 (swing high like support).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


R1: 1,281.24


R2: 1,282.70


R3: 1,285.07


Support levels :


S1: 1,276.50


S2: 1,275.04


S3: 1,272.07


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 19, 2015

General overview for 19/01/2015 10:50 CET


The corrective cycle in shape of the triangle formation in the corrective wave 4 green is in progress and now another wave down is being anticipated. This kind of a corrective structure might get complex and time consuming, so caution is advised. Only a sustained breakout below the intraday support at the level of 1.1802 invalidates the view.


Support/Resistance:


1.1802 - Intraday Support


1.1853 - WS1


1.1949 - Weekly Pivot


1.2001 - Intraday Resistance


1.2045 - Intraday High


1.2097 - WR1


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders and swingtraders should consider buying the dips in this corrective structure as long as the level of 1.1802 is not violated. SL should be placed below the level of 1.1799 and TP at the level of 1.2100 with a possible upside extension.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 19, 2015

General overview for 19/01/2015 10:40 CET


Despite possible downside wave development completion, the market still trades inside the bearish zone, below the weekly pivot at the level of 136.80 and below the intraday resistance at the level of 137.02. These two levels must be broken to start an upward move, but the confirmation will come with the level of 138.90 violation. Otherwise, there is still a chance the market will fall lower, below the 134.74 intraday support level.


Support/Resistance:


134.74 - Intraday Support


136.80 - Weekly Pivot


137.02 - Intraday Resistance


138.90 - WR1


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening buy orders if the level of 137.02 is broken, with SL below the level of 134.72 and TP at the level of 138.90 with a possible upside extension.


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#USDX Technical analysis for January 19, 2015

The Dollar index remains in a long-term uptrend and has produced a new high above 93 as expected after breaking above 92.40 as signaled last week. The short-term trend is neutral as prices pull back from recent highs.


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The Dollar index is above the Ichimoku cloud support. This is a bullish sign. Price is trading below the tenkan-sen which implies short-term weakness that could push price towards 92.40 or even to 92.10 where the top of the cloud support is found. The long-tailed candle is a bearish sign but overall the chart is bullish and a pullback is considered as another buy opportunity.


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On the monthly chart as I show above, the trend remains strongly bullish. The break out above the 38% retracement was critical as I had mentioned in previous posts and the rise could continue towards the 50% retracement near 95.50. This second leg up from 79.75 relative to the first rise from 72.70 to 83.50 in 2011 and 2012 is bigger. It increases the chances of this upward move being an extended rise that could reach our next target of 95.50. Important support of this longer term uptrend is 90.50.




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Gold Technical analysis for January 19, 2015

Gold price has managed to reach $1,280 and is showing signs of weakness at the start of this week. A pullback towards $1,260-65 is justified as price is close to important channel resistance.


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Blue lines = price channel


Gold price remains inside the short-term upward sloping channel that started at $1,160. The price channel shows that we have reached a short-term trend resistance level and that is why Gold price is pulling back lower. The pullback could reach $1,260 before the uptrend resumes higher towards $1,300.


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Blue line = trend line resistance


On the weekly chart above, I observe two important things. The downward sloping trend line from $1,800 has been broken. The Ichimoku cloud is still above the current price but it is thin, thus vulnerable. At the same area where the Ichimoku cloud is, we find the 61.8% retracement of the decline from $1,393. If we clear above the Ichimoku cloud and the 61.8% retracement resistance at $1,292, then we could see the upward move extend towards the 38% retracement of the decline from $1,800.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 19, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Current Account report. The US will not publish any economic data because of the Martin Luther King Holiday. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.1616.


Strong Resistance:1.1609.


Original Resistance: 1.1598.


Inner Sell Area: 1.1587.


Target Inner Area: 1.1560.


Inner Buy Area: 1.1533.


Original Support: 1.1522.


Strong Support: 1.1511.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.1504.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 19, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence report and Revised Industrial Production m/m. The US will not release any economic data because of Martin Luther King National Holiday. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3: 117.77.


Resistance. 2: 117.54.


Resistance. 1: 117.31.


Support. 1: 117.03.


Support. 2: 116.80.


Support. 3: 115.56.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 19, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair trended downwards by more than 300 pips last week. Therefore, the current upwards bounce is shallow and it pales into insignificance when compared to the existing bearish outlook. The support lines at 1.1500 and 1.1450 could be challenged again and they can be overcome.


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USD/CHF: When the USD/CHF pair dropped like a stone last week, the EUR/USD pair ought to spike skywards, since they are negatively correlated in a normal condition. The latter was not affected, and both pairs cannot remain bearish for a long time (and the USD is strong in its own right). Therefore, USD/CHF would move upwards by at least 500 pips this week.


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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument first went upwards by 150 pips and later dropped by over 100 pips. The overall outlook is southwards and the accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5050 could be tried this week.


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USD/JPY: The current bullish effort on the USD/JPY pair is seen as another opportunity to sell short. The supply levels at 118.00 and 118.50 may defend the bearish outlook while there is a possibility that the demand levels at 116.50 and 116.00 could be tested again.


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EUR/JPY: Since the beginning of this year, this cross has dropped by around 1000 pips (it dropped by around 400 pips last week). The price closed below the supply zones at 136.50, and it is expected to go further downwards, reaching the demand zones at 134.50 eventually. The only thing that can change the bearish outlook this week is the event in which the yen is weakened.


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Daily analysis of USDX for January 19, 2015

The USDX still is bullish in the medium term, as in the Daily chart we can see that this instrument is still alive in the bullish oulook, forming a higher high pattern with a target placed at the resistance level of 94.18. The MACD indicator is already in the overbought zone and that could indicate an imminent pullback up to the support level of 91.88 to take a second “bullish breath”.




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During the last session, the USDX failed to perform a breakout at the resistance level of 93.23 and because of that, the bearish pressure got more force on an intraday bias. Currently, the USDX is trying to stay above the support level of 92.55, performing a rebound, but during this week, the USDX could reach again the last session's high. Also, the 200-day moving average is pointing to the upside road.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 94.18 / 97.52


Dailychart's support levels: 91.88 / 90.28


H1 chart's resistance levels: 92.88 / 93.22


H1 chart's support levels: 93.55 / 92.05




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 92.88, take profit is at 93.22, and stop loss is at 92.55.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 19, 2015

It's the 3rd week of January and the GBP/USD pair still has not found the road to continue strengthening the bearish trend in the medium term. On the daily chart, we can see the current bearish moves of the GBP/USD pair, performing a pullback at the resistance level of 1.5247, and of course, this could open the way for more falls until the support level of 1.0525. Anyway, the GBP/USD pair still needs to do a breakout at the level of 1.5025 to stay alive in the bearish outlook.


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On the H1 chart, we can see the formation of a bearish trend line from the high of December 31, 2014, to the high level of the last session, next to the resistance level of 1.5251. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is trying to complete a pullback in that zone, because this pair is forming a lower low pattern, with the near-term target at the level of 1.5084. A breakout in that zone will open the way for more falls, at least until the level of 1.5034.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5247 / 1.5424


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5025 / 1.4821


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5169 / 1.5251


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5084 / 1.5034




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5084, take profit is at 1.5034, and stop loss is at 1.5134.


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Weekly technical levels for GBP/USD for January 19-23, 2015

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Trading recommendations :



  • The resistance of the GBP/USD pair has already set at 1.5252 and a minor resistance has been placed at the level of 1.5194. Furthermore, it will be quite profitable to sell below the spot of 1.5252 or 1.5194 for retesting the next objectives in order to call for a bearish market from the last wave of 1.5252. Therefore, sell deals are recommended below 1.5252 with targets at 1.5102. The bias will resume towards the level of 1.5059 to reach a strong support on 19th of January 2015. On the contrary, support is going to set at the level of 1.6278 today. Consequently, the ascending movement will probably be higher than the 1.6278 level with the target at the key price 1.6360.


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Observations :



  • The support of the GBP/USD pair has already set at 1.5059. Moreover, the weekly support 1 will set at the same level. but the double bottom had already placed at 1.5075.

  • Major resistance is going to set at 1.5252.

  • We expect a new range about 325 pips this week.

  • The key level will set at the level of 1.5163 because it represents the weekly pivot point.

  • If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.


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Weekly technical levels for EUR/USD for January 19-23, 2015

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Overview :



  • The EUR/USD pair was calling for a strong bearish market last week, so the pair will probably go down this week because the downward trend is still strong. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is going to move between the levels of 1.1460 and 1.1665. The resistance will be formed at the level of 1.1665 (it should be noted that the weekly pivot point is set at the level of 1.1632) providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 1.1459. Also, it should be noted that the double bottom will set at the point of 1.1459 on H1 chart. If the trend is able to break the double bottom, then the market is going to call for a bearish bias in order to test the first support at the level of 1.1396. However, stop-loss is to be placed above the double top around the area of 1.1713. Additionally, the support will be formed at the level of 1.1393; therefore, it should expect a range of 272 pip this week at least. It should aslo noted that the risk of 90 pips is seen to make a profit of 272 pips.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 19 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The decline from the blue wave iv top at 1.5331 has unfolded perfectly and we should be close to a bottom for blue wave v and red wave iii calling for another correction in red wave iv to just below the blue wave iv high at 1.5331. The ideal target for blue wave v is at 1.4729, for the correction higher.


Trading recommendation:


We are short in EUR from 1.5320 and will place our stop+reverse at 1.4855 and take profit+reverse at 1.4745.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 19 - 2015

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Technical summary:


It's "Make it or break it" time. Support at 134.13 needs to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 136.87 and more importantly resistance at 138.79 confirming that a bottom is in place and a new impulsive rally is developing. If however, support at 134.13 is broken, then our working count will be proven wrong and a revaluation of the longer term count will be needed. This new count, if necessary, will call for a continuation lower towards 128.38.


Trading recommendation:


We will only buy a break above minor resistance at 136.87, with a stop+reverse at 134.10.


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