Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 09, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair recorded a series of higher tops and higher bottoms, which confirmed a bullish outlook. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index shows upward momentum.

Hence, above 0.9465, look for an advance with targets at 0.9535 and 0.9565 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9465, take profit at 0.9535.

Resistance levels: 0.9535, 0.9565, and 0.9600

Support levels: 0.9425, 0.9400, and 0.9350.

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Daily analysis of Gold for March 09, 2018

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Overview

The gold price tested the 1,316.48 level and has been holding steadily above it until now, accompanied by stochastic move at the oversold areas, which supports this level and protect the recently suggested positive scenario. The price is likely to rebound bullishly and resume the bullish trend, which targets begin at 1,335.40 and extend to 1,365.97 after breaching the previous level. Therefore, we will keep our overall positive overview conditioned by the price stability above the 1,316.48 level. A break of this level will push the price to the 1,301.20 areas initially before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between the 1,310.00 support and the 1,335.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for March 09, 2018

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Overview

The silver price continues to fluctuate at the bullish trend line that rises now to 16.40. Holding above this level keeps the bullish trend scenario valid on the intraday and short-term basis, while the break of this level will push the price to the 15.49 areas directly. Therefore, we still expect the bullish trend conditioned by the price stability above 16.40, noting that a breach of 16.65 will ease the mission of heading towards 17.43 that represents our next main target. The expected trading range for today is between the 16.20 support and the 16.75 resistance.

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Global macro overview for 09/03/2018

The European Central Bank has decided to leave the main interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.00%, together with the deposit facility rate at -0.40% and the marginal lending facility at 0.25%. Nevertheless, during the ECB press conference, the market participants received a hawkish modification of the previous statement from the ECB. ECB President Mario Draghi did a lot to ensure that the closing of the path to the re-expansion of asset purchase was not perceived as the imminent end of QE (option of extending the remaining duration). He said that the decision was unanimous and that the Council did not discuss other changes. He was constructive about the outlook for economic growth, but to soften the message he signaled that "inflation cannot yet be announced". Together, this creates a picture where the ECB steps towards standardization in small steps, which will benefit long-term players buying EUR from the middle of last year. But at the same time, Draghi signaled that the ECB will adopt a passive attitude for the coming months (probably until June), which implies that at least from this fundamental source EUR will not get a new reason to strengthen.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market remains locked in a horizontal consolidation between the levels of 0.8688 - 0.9017 for many weeks now. The momentum is still hovering around its fifty level and the stochastic indicator is oscillating from the oversold levels to the overbought levels. As long as the current fundamental and economic conditions remain unchanged (Brexit negotiations, ECB monetary policy etc), the pair should continue its horizontal trend.

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Dollar: Between a hammer and an anvil

Если в 2014-2016 самой обсуждаемой темой на Forex являлась дивергенция в монетарной политике ФРС и других центробанков, во второй половине 2017 на фоне разгона мировой экономики говорили о конвергенции, при которой оба регулятора двигаются в одном направлении, а курсы валют зависят от скорости нормализации, то в 2018 рынки помешаны на торговых войнах. Нельзя сказать, что в прошлом году протекционизм не обсуждался, напротив, выход США из ряда межгосударственных договоров намекал на серьезные проблемы в будущем. И они стали реальностью. Дональд Трамп подписал документ о введении импортных пошлин на сталь и алюминий, и теперь многое будет зависеть от того, решится ли ЕС на ответные действия.

Судя по объемам европейского экспорта стали в Штаты, наибольшие проблемы новые тарифы создают Германии, которая не раз обвинялась Вашингтоном в конкурентной девальвации. ЕС угрожал ответными действиями в размере $35 млрд, однако сначала, наверняка, попытается договориться об исключении входящих в его состав стран из черного списка по примеру Мексики и Канады. Получится – торговой войны можно будет избежать, нет – нас ждет по истине увлекательное зрелище и неоценимый опыт.

Европейский экспорт стали в США

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Source: Bloomberg.

If protectionism as quickly as in 2017 disappears from the focus of investors' attention, then the divergence in monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed will immediately return to the agenda. In the light of slowing inflation and falling indices of business activity in the euro area, few people talk about normalization. The ECB claims that QE will last until September or, if necessary, even further, and reduce the forecast for HCPI from 1.5% to 1.4%. This means that the central bank is unlikely to raise rates earlier than the second or third quarters of 2019. At the same time, the Fed intends to do this three or four times this year.

It must also be taken into account that import duties are an inflation factor for the US and deflationary for the euro area, so the divergence in the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed continues to be a long-term driver for EUR / USD. It is curious that if the EU takes retaliatory measures, the fall in the yield of US bonds against the backdrop of unleashing a trade war will weaken the dollar and create an obstacle to the growth of the euro area's GDP. So is not it better to remain silent?

The most problems for the States can be created by China, which has already started talking about the threat to its own security and its readiness to respond adequately to it. The gold and foreign currency reserves of PBOC were reduced for the first time since the end of 2016, which is connected with the reassessment of the value of US Treasury bills. If Beijing, as one of the two largest holders, starts active sales, then the USD index will surely go down.

Dynamics of the gold and foreign currency reserves of China

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Source: Bloomberg.

Technically, the daily pattern "Expanding wedge" continues on the daily chart of EUR / USD. Breakthrough support at 1.225 will strengthen the risks of development of correction in the direction of 1.21 and 1.2. To restore the uptrend, the bulls should return quotes to the resistance at 1.2515 and take it by storm.

EUR / USD, daily chart

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Global macro overview for 09/03/2018

A month ago, a stronger-than-expected wage growth of 2.9% y/y raised concerns about the acceleration of inflation. Now, much depends on whetherthe signal will be confirmed in the February data. The forecasted increase of 0.2% m/m should seal Fed's interest rate hike in two weeks, but it may not be enough to give a clear boost to USD.

Traditionally, this is not a change in employment, but average wage growth will be in the focus. The January report brought a strong 0.3% m/m increase in wages, which raised the annual dynamics to 2.9%, the highest since the financial crisis. This aroused fears that inflationary pressure is stronger than previously thought, and the Fed may have more room for monetary tightening. Despite this, it is worth remembering that January's data were partly inflated by one-off factors, namely worse weather conditions limited the number of hours worked, which reduced the share in the statistics of the least-earning people (settled on an hourly basis). In February, better weather should bring the opposite effect, being a risk of a lower than expected result (0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y). In addition, there are strong base effects (an increase of 0.3% m/m in February 2017) and possible revisions down the January data. A drop in the annual dynamics below 2.8% is the most serious risk for the negative receipt of the report. Taking into account the recent clear increase in US Treasury yields, expectations regarding the Fed's policy path and the dollar's recovery, the market will now be more sensitive to disappointment. In case of stronger data, the path to a more hawkish valuation of the US assets is limited - the market fully discounts the increase in the Fed's funds rate in March, and with the expectations for the rest of the year may wait until the FOMC meeting on March 20-21. Hence, we think that good data may not be enough to give a clear boost to the USD.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. After the second test of the level of 1.2446, the price dropped towards the middle of the trading range and stopped around the level of 1.2298. Currently, the market participants await the NFP Payrolls data and the price is still trading above the technical support at the level of 1.2257. In case of better-than-expected data, the market should dive towards the key technical support at the level of 1.2150. Otherwise, the golden trend line will be tested and possibly broken as the price will rally higher to test the recent swing high at the level of 1.2555.

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Bitcoin analysis for March 09, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $8.312 and met my yesterday's targets. Over the course of the past few weeks, cryptocurrency prices have been dropping in value. However, online interest is another trend plunging as well within the digital currency realm as Google Trends searches for the word "bitcoin" have descended to levels not seen since October of 2017. The current trend on Bitcoin is bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found a breakout of the bearish pennant pattern, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found strong resistance at the price of $9.000. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the prices of $7.785 and $7.126.

Support/Resistance

$9.000 – Intraday resistance

$9.300– Intraday support

$7.785 – Objective target 1

$7.126 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader 4.

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EUR/USD analysis for March 09, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2290. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.2260, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.2350.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2405

R2: 1.2500

R3: 1.2555

Support levels:

S1: 1.2258

S2: 1.2205

S3: 1.2110

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 09, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair is trading above both uprising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum.

To sum up, as long as 146.90 is support, look for a return to 148. A break above this level would call for a target at 0.8 (the low of March 5).

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended to be below 146.90 with the target at 148.00.

Strategy: BUY, Stop loss at 146.90, Take profit at 148.00

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 148.00, 148.60, and 149.10

Support levels: 146.45, 145.75, and 145.00

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Analysis of Gold for March 09, 2018

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Recently, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,316.50. According to the 30M time frame. I found a bullish breakout of the falling wedge, which is a sign of strength. I also found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at $1,318.90 and a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of the strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the prices of $1,322.58 and $1,326.60.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,327.65

R2: $1.333.35

R3: $1,337.40

Support levels:

S1: $1,317.60

S2: $1,313.27

S3: $1,307.55

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 09, 2018

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish outlook. Although the pair posted a rebound and broke above its 20-period average, it is still capped by the upward 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

Hence, as long as 0.7245 is not surpassed, look for a further upside targets at 0.7295 and even to 0.7310 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7295, 0.7310, and 0.7345.

Support levels: 0.7230, 0.7215, and 0.7175.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for March 9, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent supply zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390. Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern was expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390).

The price zone (0.7320-0.7390) remains a significant supply zone for the NZD/USD pair. Any bullish pullback towards this price zone should be considered for a valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown of 0.7300 (neck line) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 9, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100-1.2200 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2075 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing an advance to occur towards 1.2750 provided that the bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2075 remains defended by the bulls.

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Daily Outlook

In September, bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was projected towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, in November, the evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish momentum to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2500 and 1.2200 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400. This is manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of Wednesday.

On the other hand, the depicted double-top reversal pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 (the depicted uptrend line) to be achieved on a daily basis. Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 09, 2018

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Overview:

  • The daily pivot point is seen at the price of 0.9438. The USD/CHF pair will probably continue rising from the level of 0.9438 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is at the level of 0.9438 which represents the daily pivot point on the H4 chart. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.9594 or higher. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9438. So, buy above the level of 0.9438 with the first target at 0.9516 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 0.9594 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.9516, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 0.9704. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. However, it would also be sage to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set above the first support of 0.9342.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 09, 2018

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7275. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.7275 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. However, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7237. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.7275 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7336. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.7336, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.7437 in order to test the double top.
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Bitcoin analysis for 09/03/2018

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled that the cryptocurrency regulations in his country should become effective by 1 July this year, according to the official government publication. Putin has set the date of the release of the regulatory package, now called the Digital Assets Regulation, which first appeared last year. Its introduction will end years of uncertainty in which cryptocurrencies - along with corporate and private investors - are in the shadow economy, and local authorities in Russia make various, contradictory moves to decide which aspects are legal and which are not. Last week, the court in St. Petersburg overturned the bill passed in July 2017, which suddenly prohibited the distribution of educational materials related to Bitcoin. "The operation of the cryptocurrency market is associated with specific threats, which is why nationwide regulation of this area is indispensable"- said the chairman of the parliamentary finance committee, Anatoly Aksakov, during a discussion at the end of February.

At the same time, the legislators in Moscow are currently preparing legislation on financing ICO. Some key details still cause friction between the central bank and the government ministers. The Bank of Russia especially wants to criminalize ICO symbolic investments, while the Ministry of Finance wants only regulation. "The Central Bank applied against the legalization of digital currencies because citizens could then actively invest in instruments without knowing well the possible threats" - comments Aksakov.

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Trading plan for 09/03/2018

President Trump approved new duties on steel and aluminum imports, condemning the decisions of the US's main trading partners. Trump also accepted the invitation to meet the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, which improved the mood on the market. The Bank of Japan, as expected, maintained its policy unchanged. Generally, you can not see too much market volatility and investors are probably waiting for a report from the US labor market.

On Friday 9th of March, the main event of the day is NFP-Payrolls data release, together with Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. Nevertheless, market participants will get to know more data from the UK (Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Visible Trade Balance), Germany ( Trade Balance, Industrial Production) and Canada (Unemployment Rate and Employment Change). Moreover, there are two speeches from FOMC officials scheduled later in the day: Charles Evans and Eric Rosengren.

USD/CAD analysis for 09/03/2018:

As promised, US President Donald Trump approved new duties on imports of steel and aluminum. The decision takes effect in 15 days. Canada and Mexico are exempt from duties, although the secretary of commerce Wilbur Ross said that the concession would be an incentive to reach a fair agreement on the NAFTA case. Despite yesterday's suggestions, Australia has not received a definite answer on whether it will be excluded from new duties. The fact that Trump is ready to meet Kim Jong Un had more influence on the market. It supported moods on Asian stock exchanges (Nikkei + 0.47%).

Let's now take a look at USD/CAD technical picture after the Trump decision on duties was made official. After the level of 1.3000 was tested several times, the market is still hovering around the technical support zone between the levels of 1.2836 - 1.2919. Moreover, the price is still above the black short-term trend line, but the better-than-expected data from the Canadian job market can trigger the down move from the overbought market conditions (Unemployment Rate 5.9% vs. 5.9%; Employment Change 21.3k vs. -88.0k). The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.2760.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for March 9, 2018

The Dollar index made a strong bounce yesterday towards cloud resistance. Bears are still in control of the trend and with Non Farm Payrolls today, we expect to see volatility rise in the index.

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Price bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement and reached Kumo resistance at 90.30. A rejection here is very possible. Next important resistance is at 90.50. A break above it could challenge the recent high at 90.92. Support is at 89.90.

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On a daily basis the US dollar index bounced right at the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. The price held above the Kijun-sen which was very important support. It remains to be seen if we get another rejection or a break inside the Kumo. A break inside the Kumo could lead to a bigger bounce for the dollar. A rejection and a break below the Kijun-sen support would be very bearish in the medium-term.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for March 9, 2018

Gold price pulled back below the Ichimoku cloud yesterday as the US dollar strengthened. The price action remains inside the wider trading range of $1,310-$1,350. The short-term trend has turned bearish again as the price is now again below the cloud support.

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Red line - neckline resistance

Blue line - trend line support

Red triangle - Head

Blue triangles - shoulders

Gold price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart. However, the price may be forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern. For this pattern to be valid, we need to see the gold price moving higher towards $1,338 and test the neckline. This way the right shoulder will be formed. This is now very important resistance.

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Magenta line - long-term resistance

Red line- trend line support

Daily trend remains neutral as the price is inside the Daily Kumo. The price has broken the red trend line support and the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). $1,300 is important cloud support. If broken, we should expect the gold price to go towards $1,280-70. Resistance is at $1,340. Upon a break above it, we will most probably break above the double top resistance.

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