EUR / USD: The report of the European Commission and Industrial production data in Germany harmed the euro

The decline in the euro is not surprising after such data on industrial production in Germany, as well as the report of the European Commission, which revised the forecasts for the growth of the eurozone economy for the worse.

All of these confirm once again the fact that the European Central Bank, after such a weak start at the beginning of this year, is likely to postpone the increase in interest rates planned for this summer. These expectations are reflected in the quotes of the European currency, which reduced the pair with other world currencies, especially against the US dollar.

According to a report from the German Federal Bureau of Statistics, the industrial production declined more than expected in December even despite the increase in the production of automobiles and spare parts.

Thus, the industrial production in Germany decreased by 0.4% in December 2018 compared with the previous month, while economists had forecast growth to be 0.8%. Such a strong divergence of expectations with real data led to a sharp fall in the euro at the beginning of the European session. Compared with December 2017, industrial production in Germany decreased by 3.9%.

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Additionally, the report of the European Commission added "fuel to the fire", which significantly lowered its forecasts for a number of countries, including the eurozone. Let me remind you that the last similar report was published in November 2018.

Thus, the European Commission lowered the forecast for GDP growth in the eurozone in 2019 to 1.3% from 1.9%. In 2020, the European Commission predicts eurozone GDP growth at 1.6% against the previous forecast of 1.7%.

As for the flagship economy of the eurozone, the forecast for German GDP growth in 2019 was revised from 1.8% to 1.1% amid the cooling of world trade.

In other countries, this indicator is even worse. For example, in Italy in 2019, a recession could begin at all. Judging by the data of the European Commission, the Italian economy is expected to grow by only 0.2% in 2019 against the previous value of 1.2%.

As for inflation, the European Commission expects growth only to 1.4% against 1.8% in November 2018. In 2020, inflation will rise by only 1.5%. This is far below the target value of the European Central Bank in the region of 2.0%.

The decline in indicators is directly attributable to the deteriorating situation in world trade, as well as the uncertainty associated with Brexit, which is holding back economic growth in the eurozone. It is possible that the trade conflict between the United States and China also has a negative impact on economic growth.

As for the current technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the bears did an excellent job with the weekly task and apparently, after updating a large support level around 1.1320, a technical correction may begin. This will last up to the resistance level of 1.1370, which will seriously limit further upside potential.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 7. The pound fell after the decision of the Bank of England on interest

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The pound was expected to remain under pressure after the publication of the decision of the Bank of England, which kept the interest rates unchanged but lowered the forecast for economic growth. Currently, buyers are viewed in the support area of 1.2860 but opening long positions are best after returning and fixing above the resistance of 1.2910. A breakthrough of which can occur only after a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney. From his words, it will depend on the further direction of the pound. Returning to the support of 1.2860 may lead to a new wave of sales. In this scenario, it is best to consider new long positions from the lows of 1.2808 and 1.2752.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears managed to continue the downward trend in the pound after the decision of the Bank of England. If the tone of the statement from Mark Carney turns out negative, the pressure on the pound will continue and a repeated decline in the support area of 1.2860 will form a new downward wave, which will lead to a decrease in GBP / USD in the area of minimums of 1.2808 and 1.2752, where I recommend taking profits. An unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.2910 will also be a signal to sell the pound. Otherwise, short positions can be opened for a rebound from 1.2972.

More in the video forecast for February 7

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving, which indicates a possible drop in the pound in the short term.

Bollinger bands

In the case of GBP/USD growth, the upside potential may be limited by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2926.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD plan for the American session on February 7. German economic news puts pressure on the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Another weak statistics on industrial production in Germany, as well as a revision by the European Commission of their GDP growth forecasts, led to the sale of the European currency in the first half of the day. At the moment, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from support 1.1317 or from a new minimum of 1.1292. The main task of buyers for the American session will be a return to the resistance level of 1.1340, which the Bulls have missed in the morning. Only after such, you can expect a correction in the area of 1.1365 and 1.1432, where I recommend to fix the profit.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The downtrend continues and sellers need to form a false breakdown after correction in the area of resistance 1.1340, which will lead to a new sale of EUR / USD to the area of minimums 1.1317 and 1.1292, where I recommend taking profits. In case of consolidation above the level of 1.1430, a number of stop-orders of sellers may be demolished, which will lead to an increase in the euro in the area of resistance 1.1365, from where it is also possible to sell the euro immediately to rebound.

More in the video forecast for February 7

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the continued pressure on the euro.

Bollinger bands

In the case of EUR / USD growth, the upside potential may be limited by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1360.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD / USD: Why did the New Zealand dollar collapse?

Following the Australian currency today, the New Zealand dollar as its closest "ally" has collapsed. The catalyst for the decline was the disappointing release of data on the labor market in New Zealand, although such a scenario has been brewing for a long time. The slowdown of the Chinese economy, as well as the dovish rhetoric of RBA, could not but affect the New Zealander, which depends heavily on both the PRC and Australia. A weak macroeconomic data served only as a trigger for the downward impulse of NZD/USD.

Data on the labor market in New Zealand was really disappointing. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the fourth quarter of last year, with a growth forecast of 4.1%. The increase in the number of people employed fell to 0.1% in quarterly terms and the last time such weak rates were recorded in the second quarter of 2017. In annual terms, the indicator continued the negative trend, dropping to 2.3% and the decline was recorded for the second quarter in a row. Salaries remained at the same level, although most experts expected the indicator to grow to 0.6%, while the indicator remained at around 0.5%.

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It is likely that in other conditions the New Zealander would react more restrained since nothing catastrophic happened. Although unemployment increased, it remained below the level where it was for many years. For comparison, this figure was at around 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2016 and over the next two years, it fluctuated in the range of 4.9% -4.4%. The increase in the number of employees certainly disappointed, but here it is necessary to recall the recent decisions of the New Zealand government in the area of labor market development. Thus, the Cabinet plans to send more than three billion dollars to create 10,000 new jobs in rural areas of the country. This is a long-term program but the effect of its implementation will be noticeable already this year - at least, members of the government assure it.

There are other fundamental factors in other conditions that could support the New Zealand dollar. We are talking about the price index for dairy products. Agriculture, especially the dairy industrial population of cows and sheep, plays an important (if not key) role for the economy of New Zealand, along with tourism. Therefore, the positive dynamics in this area is essential for government officials and for the Central Bank.

The main indicator of the state of affairs with the "milk" is the price index for dairy products, which is formed on the basis of the auction (auction) results of the New Zealand GDT (Global Dairy Trade) exchange. Therefore, after a significant decline in December (due to seasonal factors), this index shows a gradual but steady growth at the beginning of this year. Each January auction demonstrates a positive trend, wherein based on the latest results, the index came out at 6.7%. This is the strongest growth rate since November 2016.

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Despite all of the above factors, the New Zealander, paired with the dollar, collapsed more than 150 points in a day, continuing to demonstrate a bearish mood. The fact is that traders are seriously concerned about the softening of the rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, whose meeting will take place as early as next week on February 13. The head of the Australian regulator has already made interest rate cuts this year, given the increased risks of internal and external nature. Adrian Orr may follow the example of his colleague since the economic problems of Australia and New Zealand are due to China as the common cause.

The slowdown of the Chinese economy is most acutely reflected in the dynamics of economic growth in these countries. For example, Australia's GDP growth was only 2.8% by the end of the year, while RBA experts expected this figure to be 3.4%. A similar situation exists in New Zealand, where economic growth has slowed to 2.6%. I repeat that the New Zealand economy depends on both China and Australia, thus, the current situation may really worry the members of the RBNZ.

In the summer of last year, the New Zealand regulator already assumed the possibility of a reduction in the interest rate, after which the NZD/USD pair updated the annual minimum and reached the 64th figure. If the concern of traders next week is confirmed, the southern dynamics of the pair will continue at a fairly dynamic pace. The disappointing data on the labor market in New Zealand only increased the likelihood of such a scenario, despite all the other fundamental factors of a positive nature.

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In technical terms, the NZD/USD pair on the daily chart is located in the Kumo cloud and between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The first level of support is the mark of 0.6690, which is the lower Bollinger Bands. The strongest level looks like the mark of 0.6600, where a correctional pullback is possible from it if the dollar bulls do not strengthen their positions and do not push the price to the 65th figure.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 7, 2019

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.

As expected, the recent bearish decline below 1.3150 brought the GBP/USD pair into a deeper bearish correction towards 1.3000 where lack of bullish demand was recently noticed.

That's why, further bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.2900-1.2850 where (38.2% Fibonacci level) as well as the backside of the depicted broken trend are located (in RED).

For the bullish scenario to remain valid, significant bullish recovery should be demonstrated around the current price levels 1.2900-1.2850. This would enhance a quick bullish visit towards 1.3000 and 1.3150.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should consider the current bearish pullback towards 1.2900-1.2870 (backside of the broken downtrend in RED) for a valid BUY entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.3055, 1.3155 and 1.3200. Any bearish H4 closure below 1.2850 invalidates this scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

February 7, 2019: The EUR/USD pair is currently approaching the daily uptrend line around 1.3000.

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since Thursday when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514. Thus, another descending high was established then.

Hence, the recent bearish closure below 1.1420 has allowed the current bearish movement to pursue towards 1.1350 and 1.1300.

The price zone of 1.1280-1.1300 now constitutes a significant demand zone to be watched for BUY positions on intraday basis.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for the current bearish pullback to pursue towards the price zone of 1.1285-1.1300 (lower limit of the depicted movement channel) for a valid BUY entry.

T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420. S/L to be located below 1.1250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of GBP / JPY pair for the week of February 7

Large scale graph:

The bearish wave that began in February last year has now been fully formed and the proportion of all its parts have been observed. Given the presence of a reversal pattern, we can state the completion of a bearish trend.

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Medium-scale graph:

Since January 3, the price forms an upward wave with strong potential. On a larger scale chart, it will at least take the place of correction.

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Small-scale graph:

The price decrease that started on January 25 in the time scale wave took the place of the middle part (B). Calculating the support indicates the probable termination area.

Forecast and recommendations:

Given the wave algorithm of the movement, sales of the cross pair in the coming weeks will be hopeless. Supporters of the international trade style are advised to follow the buy signals of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 145.50 / 146.00

Support areas:

- 141.50 / 141.00

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). Three consecutive graphs are used for analysis. Each of these analyzes the last incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure and the dotted exhibits the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar continues to score points, and the pound, to follow the twists and turns Brexit

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In recent days, the dollar has once again managed to gain momentum and fully recover the losses incurred as a result of "softening" the position of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS).

The US currency has risen by almost 1% since the January Fed meeting, which resulted in the regulator's rhetoric surprisingly soft.

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It should be noted that the position of Federal Reserve did not become unnecessarily a "pigeon", but simply ceased to be too "hawkish".

Despite the fact that the dollar lost its trump card in the form of an aggressive increase in the federal funds rate, other leading central banks also began to think about easing monetary policy. In particular, the ECB does not exclude the likelihood of expanding the list of incentives, and the Reserve Bank of Australia hints at the possibility of lowering the interest rate.

Is it any wonder then that, despite the optimistic forecasts for EUR / USD, according to which, by the end of this year, the euro will rise in price to $ 1.2, the pair is still confidently moving down.

In addition, the US economy still feels much better than most of its main competitors.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly noted that the position of the American economy, which is based on a strong labor market and inflation near the 2% target, is still strong. At the same time, the recovery of the eurozone economy in 2019 is still questionable.

In the medium term, it is assumed that EUR / USD will be in the range of 1.1265-1.1485. As a driver of growth, the pair can serve as a deterioration of macroeconomic statistics for the United States. In this case, the "bulls" for the euro only need to be patient.

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As for the pair GBP / USD, today traders are awaiting the publication of the decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate.

It is expected that the regulator will not consider changing the rate until the conditions for the UK's withdrawal from the EU are clarified.

"The members of the Monetary Policy Committee, as a rule, try not to talk about the dynamics of the pound, so as not to be accused of currency manipulation. At the same time, the Central Bank is closely following its course," Rabobank experts said.

"The sharp fluctuations of the pound exchange rate significantly affect the inflation forecasts for Britain. Therefore, strong market movements on the news around Brexit can create serious problems for the regulator," they added.

According to their estimates, in the case of the implementation of the "hard" scenario, the GBP / USD pair can fall to the level of 1.14.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones of AUD / USD pair 02.02.19

Today, the pair went beyond the average weekly move. This suggests an increase in the probability of the formation of an upward correctional model. The saturation of important news today and the expiration of options contracts tomorrow may lead to a sharp increase in demand and test one of the correction zones. To date, there is no point of support for the formation of control zones in the direction of growth since there is no fixed minimum of the week. It is necessary to wait for the first demand and the formation of the market maker level.

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Sales from the current figure are unprofitable since the probability of returning to the zone of the average progress of the week is 90%. This does not mean that it is necessary to buy from current grades but any formation of a purchase pattern will allow it to be done with a high probability.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair continues to fall in a recoil-free scenario. In this case, the main goal of the fall will be the monthly control zone in February. This model should be auxiliary for building a trading plan since sales outside the range of the average weekly move are extremely unprofitable. The best option for trading will increase to a significant resistance zone.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Fed will reduce the rate in case of a slowdown in global economic growth

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According to Janet Yellen, the former head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the USA, the regulator can go on lowering the interest rate in the future if the weakening of economic growth all over the world affects the American economy.

She believes that the weakening of global economic growth will affect the United States. To normalize the situation, the Fed may reduce the interest rate. She believes the slowdown in global growth is the most significant threat to the US economy. "At present, US economic data is stable and strong, although experts have long predicted a slowdown in 2019, which could be about 3% or higher," the former Fed chief believes.

Recall that following the meeting on December 18-19, 2018, the Fed raised the interest rate on federal funds by 25 basis points, to 2.25% -2.50%. Representatives of the regulator also predicted two rate hikes in the current year. At the January meeting, the Fed leadership kept interest rates at the same level, analysts say.

According to J. Yellen, this forecast is quite justified, and the two rate hikes in 2019 are quite reasonable, despite the uncertainty regarding future prospects.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 02/07/2019

The dollar continued to strengthen, although a correction was expected long ago, but this was apparently prevented by Donald Trump, who made an unequivocal statement during his speech before Congress. The President of the United States has long praised his successes in the economy, which, according to him, shows the best results in recent decades. However, the owner of the White House added that this should not be stopped, and it is still necessary to revise just enslaving trade agreements. Bonded they, of course, are for the United States. At least that's what Donald Trump is constantly talking about. It follows from his words and actions during the years of his presidency that the policy of squeezing foreign capital from the American market will continue. Also, the United States will simply squeeze out privileges for its capital in foreign markets. By any means. Both political and military. Naturally, this alignment is not particularly encouraging investors, especially those who are thinking of investing in Europe or China. As for China, the trade agreement has not yet been signed with it, although the topic is actively being discussed that everything will be completed soon. But, judging by the rhetoric of Donald Trump, the United States intends to bend its line here too. So there is more than enough uncertainty.

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Nevertheless, the correction suggests itself, but it seems that today it is worth forgetting about it. First, a meeting of the Board of the Bank of England will be held with a subsequent press conference of Mark Carney. Obviously, there will be no change in monetary policy, and the head of the Bank of England himself will certainly talk about the terrible consequences of Brexit for the British economy. This has already been stated many times, and even spoke of parity with the dollar. So the pound will be under pressure. Secondly, additional support for the dollar should be provided by data on applications for unemployment benefits, the total number of which may be reduced by 94 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications should be reduced by 32 thousand, and repeated ones by 62 thousand.

Since the beginning of the month, the euro / dollar currency pair shows a steady downward trend, reaching a periodic value of 1.1350 on the current day. Probably assume a deceleration within this value, where in the case of mining we are waiting for the rollback phase.

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The currency pair pound / dollar reached the level of 1.2920, after which the stagnation phase began. It can be assumed that the current bumpiness 1.2920 / 1.2970 still persists, where traders make a stretch of pending orders.

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Simplified wave analysis of AUD / USD for February 7

Large-scale graphics:

The bearish wave dominating from last January continues to set the main vector for the price movement of the pair. The opposite movement does not exceed the level of correction.

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Medium scale graphics:

The rising wave of the instrument, which began on January 3, has a high wave level and will eventually move to a larger scale. In the structure of the movement in recent weeks, the middle part (B) is formed.

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Small-scale graphics:

The descending section from January 31 is close to the calculated target zone. In a larger design, the wave completes a bearish correction, having the form of an expanding triangle.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming weeks, a major price increase is expected on the major chart. In the area of calculated support, it is recommended to track long entry signals.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7340 / 0.7390

Support areas:

- 0.7070 / 0.7020

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for February 07, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for February 07, 2019

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Bitcoin is trading downwards and the price tested the level of $3.370 as we expected. Anyway, most recently, we found a strong rejection from the median line at the price of $3.370, which may be indication of potential change in trend dynamic from bearish to bullish. It is too early to confirm the change in trend since the price is still trading inside of the downward channel and below the upper (resistance) trendline (white).

Scenario 1:

The Bitcoin may reject from the key short-term support at $3.440 and go down to revisit the low at $3.370. if this happens, watch for sell on the rejection of the resistance with target at $3.370.

Scenario 2:

Bitcoin is going to break the resistance line at $3.450 and confirm the re-test of key short-term resistance at $3.542. If you see a break of the $3.450, watch for long positions with target at $3.542.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR and GBP: Brexit will not be rescheduled? Trump succeeds in reducing the deficit of foreign trade

The US dollar rose against the background of another good fundamental statistics for the United States, while the risks of slowing economic growth in Germany increased, and the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU without an agreement increased even more.

According to yesterday's data, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany in December last year declined due to falling demand from non-eurozone countries. This again confirms the fact that the growth of Europe's largest economy in the 4th quarter will remain fairly weak.

According to the report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, orders in the country's manufacturing sector in December decreased by 1.6% compared with November, while economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. The bureau also expects the current lull in the German manufacturing sector to continue. Compared to December 2017, orders in the manufacturing sector in Germany decreased by 7.0%.

USA

Data on the US economy were more positive.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, labor productivity in the US manufacturing sector increased in the 4th quarter. However, it should be noted that the report is limited due to the recent partial suspension of government work.

According to the data, labor productivity in the industry in the 4th quarter of the year 2108 increased by 1.3% per annum after rising by 1.1% in the 3rd quarter. The report does not contain data on labor productivity outside agriculture. Due to the recent suspension of government work, the report on specific labor costs was also not published. Economists predicted that overall productivity in the 4th quarter increased by 1.6%, while unit labor costs rose by 1.7%.

Good news for American President Donald Trump. As indicated in the report from the US Department of Commerce, the US foreign trade deficit in November 2018 decreased by 11.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 49.3 billion US dollars. Economists had forecast a deficit of $ 54.3 billion. Imports in November declined by 2.9% compared with the previous month, while exports declined only by 0.6%.

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Let me remind you that last year, in order to reduce the deficit of foreign trade, the administration of US President Donald Trump imposed a number of countries on duties on goods of foreign manufacture.

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also delivered a speech, during which the discussion focused on the need to study the economy. Speaking at the next forum, Powell noted that monetary policy is a powerful tool for stabilizing economic growth and mitigating negative phenomena in the economy. The Fed Chairman did not comment on the outlook for the US economy or the monetary policy of the Fed.

As for the current technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, buyers urgently need to return to the resistance level of 1.1370. As long as trade is conducted under this range, sales of the European currency will most likely prevail in the market, which could lead to a further trend decline in risky assets in the minimum region of 1.1340 and 1.1290. In the case of an upward correction, which is expected by the euro a long time ago, a breakthrough of 1.1370 will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders of sellers, which will form an increase in EUR / USD with a maximum test of 1.1400, where the demand for a trading instrument will again decrease.

Great Britain

It should be recalled that today in the afternoon a decision of the Bank of England on interest rates will be published, which may keep the downward movement in the GBP / USD pair, which has been observed since the beginning of this week. Pressure on the pound will increase only under the condition that the regulator will revise for the worse its predictions about the prospects for economic growth for this year.

It is also necessary to closely monitor the negotiations of the British Prime Minister Theresa May with the EU leaders, who currently have not brought the proper result that many traders and investors expect. We are talking about the postponement of the UK withdrawal from March of this year to a later one.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 07, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.3210 and 1.2913. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3210 to 1.2913 which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210; because the price is in a bearish channel now.

Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3010 and 1.2734. Overall, we still prefer a bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3010. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2913, the market will decline further to 1.2734 (daily support 1). Hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2734 to test it again. The level of 1.2704 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3210, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3250.

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GBP / USD. February 7th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May will meet with Juncker and Tusk

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -103.1988

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday, February 7, continues its downward movement and, most likely, will keep it all day. To date, the planned announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England. This is certainly the most important event for the British pound, but we believe that there will not be a special market reaction to it. The rate is unlikely to change, the asset redemption program will retain its volumes, the balance of forces in voting at the rate is also likely to be unchanged (0 for changing the rate, 9 for against). Greater attention should be caused by the press conference of the head of the British regulator Mark Carney. However, everything can turn out to be quite prosaic. What can Carney say, besides the new portion of the concerns about the "tough" Brexit and the threat to the UK economy? This is clear and understandable to everyone. It is unlikely that new Carney fears will cause massive sales of the pound. Further. Today, there will also be a meeting between Theresa May and the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, and Donald Tusk. The discussion will be all the same mode "backstop." However, Juncker has already declared that Europe cannot give up the position of "backstop". Other EU leaders have repeatedly stated that the current transaction is the best option they can offer. The likelihood that Theresa May will return to London with nothing is very high. At the same time, the British Prime Minister is preparing to postpone the second vote on Brexit, since it is unlikely to have time before its date (February 13) to hold all the necessary meetings with EU leaders.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2939

S2 - 1.2909

S3 - 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2970

R2 - 1.3000

R3 - 1.3031

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues its downward movement, therefore, short positions with targets at 1.2909 and 1.2878 are still relevant. Color 1-2 bars in purple color will indicate the beginning of an upward correction.

Long positions are recommended to be considered in case of the reverse fixing of the price above the moving with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3092. A large package of important macroeconomic data today can support any currency, but, most likely, the decline will continue.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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GBP/USD analysis for February 07, 2019

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The GBP/USD pair broke the short-term support at the price of 1.2925 and confirmed downside continuation. So far, we still see that sellers are in control and that trend is bearish. Price is still trading below the Ichimoku cloud on the H1 time, which is a sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities.

1.2914 – Intraday resistance – Tenkan-sen yellow line

1.2935 – Intraday resistance – Kijun-sen purple line

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on GBP/USD from 1.2900 and a downward target at the price of 1.2825. Protective stop is placed at 1.2935

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. February 7th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pair is quietly moving to the target level of 1.1290

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -143.3748

On the fourth trading day of the week, the EUR / USD currency pair continues a slight downward movement. Recall that the average volatility of the instrument now does not exceed 40 points per day, although on the chart it may seem that this indicator is much higher. The downward movement is almost recoilless, which is very good for traders. In recent weeks, the situation in technical terms does not change at all. The pair continues to be between the levels of 1.1500 and 1.1290 and is now definitely moving towards the lower boundary of this range. In fundamental terms, there is nothing special to note now. Recent important data from the US markets simply ignored. There have been no important macroeconomic reports from Europe lately. All the attention of traders today will be focused on the events in London and Brussels, and all the main events of the day will be connected with the Bank of England and the Brexit negotiations between Theresa May and Jean Claude Juncker. Thus, we believe that low instrument volatility will remain today with the downward trend remains. In any case, the reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator to the top will signal a coil of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to move down. Therefore, it is now recommended to trade short positions with the first goal of 1.1353, and in the case of overcoming this target, with the goal of 1.1292. Manual reduction of short positions will be possible when the Heikin Ashi indicator turns up.

Purchase orders will become relevant no earlier than the price fixing above the moving average line. In this case, we will again expect an upward movement with the first target of 1.1475.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for February 7. Bullish divergence + hang up.

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD completed the fall to a correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. The end of the pair's course from this Fibo level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.1446. Also today, bullish divergence is brewing at the MACD indicator. The education may coincide with the rebound from the level of 23.6%. Closing quotes below the Fibo level of 23.6% will work in favor of continuing to fall towards the level of 1.1269.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and began the process of falling towards the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Rebounding the pair from the correction level of 127.2% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and the beginning of a new growth towards the level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair EUR / USD can be carried out with the target of 1.1446, if the pair rebounds from the correction level of 23.6%, and with a Stop Loss order at 1.1358, especially in conjunction with the formation of bullish divergence.

New sales of the currency pair EUR / USD will be possible with the goal of 1.1269 if the pair closes below the level of 1.1358, and a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358.

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Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD on February 7. The pound with great difficulty rolled back slightly

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart completed closing under the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2969. As a result, on February 7, the process of falling continues in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.2869. Over the current chart, there are no divergences observed in any indicator. Rebounding the pair's quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% will make it possible to count on a turn in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8%.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, a second bullish divergence has formed, now with both indicators, MACD and CCI. However, even after its steam formation, the expected growth process did not begin. The passage of the last lows of these divergences by quotations will work in favor of resuming the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 61.8% - 1.2880. Fixing the pair above the level of 50.0% will make it possible to expect some growth, but the pair's desire to grow now is absent.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 15, 2019, and January 25, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair GBP / USD can be made with the target at 1.3008 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 50.0% if the pair closes above the level of 1.2943 (hourly chart), especially in conjunction with unchanged bullish divergence.

New sales of the currency pair GBP / USD can be made with the target of 1.2880 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 50.0%, if the pair passes the low bullish divergence (hourly chart).

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Analysis of Gold for February 07, 2019

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Sellers are in control in the Gold market. We found a confirmed head and shoulders pattern and absorption of the buying climax in the background, which is a strong sign of weakness. The key resistance now became previous support at the price of $1.308.00-$1.309.00. We didn't find any big sign of a price reversal, only temporary upward correction. The key short-term support still remains at $1.297.65. Besides, Gold is trading inside of the downward channel and as long as the price is trading below the upper diagonal, the trend will remain down.

R1: $1.319.65

R2: $1.324.95

R3: $1.329.96

Pivot: $1.314.65

S1: $1.309.35

S2: $1.304.30

S3: $1.299.15

Trading recommendation: We are still short on Gold from $1.311.00 and protective stop at $1.322.00. The first objective target is set at the price of $1.297.75. Anyway, if we see lack of demand and rejection from resistance at the price of $1.308.00, we would add smaller sell position.

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The dollar grows in the framework of common lateral movements

On Wednesday, the much-awaited markets speech by the American president. Investors were waiting for some signals from him about his future policies and actions in the economy. But nothing significant was sounded, which again led to confusion in the markets and retained the uncertainty factor.

There are still a number of reasons that affect the markets. Local is the publication of statements of companies, which, for example in the States, is generally positive and supports investor interest in purchases. At the same time, there is another negative trend. This is lowering expectations for the positive dynamics of companies in the second quarter, which indicates that they are not so optimistic about the growth prospects of not only the global but also the American economy.

Uncertainty about whether a new trade agreement will be reached between Washington and Beijing also looms over the markets. The advertised meeting of January 30-31 yielded no result. The Minister of Finance, S. Mnuchin, who took part in it, did not say anything concrete, referring to the fact that work is being done and there is still a lot of it to be. All of this indicates that there are no specific agreements yet and that the risk of increasing US trade duties by 10% to 25% on the number of goods from China in the amount of $ 200 billion is still in force. On this wave, the nervousness in the markets remains extremely high.

Europe is in a similar condition. The implications of Brexit are not clear. Britain itself cannot decide on this matter. The European Union is also nervous and, despite the claims that it is ready for the "uncontrolled" exit of Great Britain, tensions exist.

Naturally, this whole picture has an impact on financial markets in general and on currency markets in particular. As a result of Wednesday, the American dollar added markedly in relation to the major currencies, with the exception of the Japanese. We consider its strengthening as local within the framework of uncertainty factors of the possible development of events for the key reasons mentioned above. The overall movement in the market continues in line with the lateral dynamics, which, in our opinion, will continue in the short term.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is below the level of 1.1375. We continue to expect it to fall to 1.1320 to the bottom of the short-term uptrend.

The currency pair AUD / USD is trading above the level of 0.7085. We expect it to decline to this level, and after overcoming it fall to 0.7045.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for February 7

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we expect a downward movement after the breakdown of 1.1353, and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we should continue the downward movement after the breakdown of 1.2929. For the currency pair dollar/franc, the upward trend development is expected after the breakdown of 1.0027. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the upward structure of January 31 is expected to continue to develop after the breakdown of 110.22 and at the moment, the price is in the zone of initial conditions. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price has issued a downward structure on February 4 and its development is expected after the breakdown of 124.30. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the development of the situation on the H1 scale is expected after the breakdown of 141.80 and the level of 143.35 is the key support.

Forecast for February 6:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1416, 1.1388, 1.1375, 1.1353, 1.1326, 1.1307 and 1.1284. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of January 31. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1353. In this case, the target is 1.1326 and in the range of 1.1326 - 1.1307 is the short-term downward movements, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1284, the movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 1.1305.

The corrective uptrend is possible in the range of 1.1375 - 1.1388 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1416 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1375 Take profit: 1.1388

Buy 1.1390 Take profit: 1.1412

Sell: 1.1352 Take profit: 1.1328

Sell: 1.1324 Take profit: 1.1307

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3068, 1.3015, 1.2991, 1.2929, 1.2885, 1.2828 and 1.2789. Here, we continue to monitor the downward cycle of January 28th. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2929 - 1.2885 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2828. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2789, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

The corrective movement is possible in the range of 1.2991 - 1.3015 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3068.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2991 Take profit: 1.3015

Buy: 1.3017 Take profit: 1.3060

Sell: 1.2929 Take profit: 1.2888

Sell: 1.2883 Take profit: 1.2830

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0114, 1.0081, 1.0058, 1.0027, 1.0009, 0.9998 and 0.9978. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 31. The continuation of the upward trend development is expected after the breakdown of 1.0027. In this case, the target is 1.0058 and in the range of 1.0058 - 1.0081 is the short-term upward movements, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0114, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.0009 - 0.9998 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9978.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0027 Take profit: 1.0058

Buy: 1.0060 Take profit: 1.0080

Sell: 1.0009 Take profit: 0.9998

Sell: 0.9996 Take profit: 0.9978

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 111.32, 111.08, 110.66, 110.22, 109.64, 109.34 and 109.01. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 31. The movement upwards is expected after the breakdown of 110.22. Here, the target is 110.66 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 110.66 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 111.08. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 111.32, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 109.64 - 109.34 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 109.01 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have to develop the downward structure. In this case, the first target is 108.48.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.22 Take profit: 110.65

Buy: 110.68 Take profit: 111.08

Sell: 109.64 Take profit: 109.36

Sell: 109.32 Take profit: 109.03

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3313, 1.3274, 1.3257, 1.3226, 1.3206, 1.3176, 1.3152 and 1.3117. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle from February 1 and expanded the potential to the level of 1.3313. The short-term upward movement, possibly in the range of 1.3206 - 1.3226 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3257 and in the range of 1.3257 - 1.3274 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3313, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The corrective movement is possible in the range of 1.3176 - 1.3152 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.3117 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle from February 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3228 Take profit: 1.3255

Buy: 1.3276 Take profit: 1.3313

Sell: 1.3174 Take profit: 1.3154

Sell: 1.3150 Take profit: 1.3125

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7186, 0.7152, 0.7132, 0.7085, 0.7049, 0.7025 and 0.6977. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of January 31. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7085. In this case, the target is 0.7049 and in the range of 0.7049 - 0.7025 is the short-term downward movements, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.6977, a pronounced movement to which we expect after the breakdown of 0.7025.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7132 - 0.7152 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7186 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7132 Take profit: 0.7150

Buy: 0.7154 Take profit: 0.7184

Sell: 0.7083 Take profit: 0.7050

Sell: 0.7047 Take profit: 0.7027

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 125.98, 125.43, 125.11, 124.60, 124.33, 123.93, 123.61 and 123.22. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of February 4. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 124.60 - 124.33 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward cycle. In this case, the goal is 123.93 and in the range of 123.93 - 123.61 is the short-term downward movement and consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 123.22, from which the probability of a rollback to the correction is high.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 125.11 - 125.43 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form the ascending structure on the H1 scale. Here, the first potential target is 125.98.

The main trend is the downward structure of February 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.11 Take profit: 125.40

Buy: 125.45 Take profit: 125.95

Sell: 124.60 Take profit: 124.35

Sell: 124.30 Take profit: 123.93

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 143.35, 142.86, 142.53, 141.84, 141.18, 140.38 and 139.80. Here, the price set the initial conditions for the development of a local downward cycle of February 4. We expect short-term downward movement in the range of 141.84 - 141.18 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 140.38. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 139.80, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 142.53 - 142.86 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 143.35 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the downward cycle of February 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 142.53 Take profit: 142.84

Buy: 142.88 Take profit: 143.35

Sell: 141.80 Take profit: 141.20

Sell: 141.15 Take profit: 140.45

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for February 7, 2019

EUR/AUD has been extremely volatile and corrective while residing below 1.60 area recently. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the official cash rate unchanged at yesterday's policy meeting and released an indecisive statement. As a result, AUD failed to attract market sentiment, thus enabling EURO to gain ground despite the ongoing headwinds from the eurozone.

AUD used to be the dominant currency in the pair since the biggest rejection with a daily close below 1.6350 area in early January 2019. The recent dovish statement from RBA Governor Lowe alongside the unchanged interest rate resulted in sour experience for the AUD bias in the market. Recently Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phillip Lowe stated that Australia's interest rate can move in either direction, though it is expected to move lower with a greater probability. The decision on interest rates depends on the strength of the labor market and inflation. The RBA has been keeping the interest rate unchanged at 1.50% on the grounds of relevant economic data. Besides, the board thinks that at present the domestic economy is more balanced and does not need sharp moves of interest rates. Moreover, recently a retail sales report was published with a decrease to -0.4% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at 0.0% and a trade balance report was published with an increase to 3.68B from the previous figure of 2.26B which was expected to decrease to 2.25B. Ahead of RBA Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow, AUD is expected to be quite weak. Besides, any negative outcome of the report is expected to lead to further weakness of AUD.

On the other hand, the ECB has been taking measures before the BREXIT triggers turmoil in the eurozone's economy in the short term. Currently the ECB is preparing the European banks to endure better during a run on their crash under a new stress test. It aims to measure the survival period of the banks which will focus on the bank's short-term cash flows to calculate the survival period. Moreover, the European Commission is going to slash its 2019 growth forecast for Italy to 0.2% from its 1.2% estimate given in November. The growth reduction is expected to hamper EUR's gains, but till then EUR may lead further in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 1.60 area which if broken above with a daily close is expected to lead to further bullish momentum with a target towards 1.6350 resistance area. If the price continues to remain below 1.60 area, the bearish pressure is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.5850, 1.5900

RESISTANCE: 1.60, 1.6350

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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GBP/JPY Is Approaching Resistance, Lookout For A Reversal!

GBP/JPY is approaching resistance at 146.02 (50%, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where we expect price to drop to its support at 141.83 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (21, 5, 3) is approaching resistance.

GBP/JPY is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 146.02. Stop loss 148.39. Take profit at 141.83analytics5c5bee1317016.png

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EUR/JPY Approaching Support, Potential Bounce!

EUR/JPY is approaching our first support level at 124.36 (horizontal swing low support, 23.6%, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension) where we expect a strong bounce above this level to our major resistance level at 124.97 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching support.

EUR/USD is approaching our first support where we are expecting a bounce above this level.

Buy above 124.36. Stop loss 124.10. Take profit at 124.97analytics5c5bedd4c0a67.png

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 7. The third wave continues its construction

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Wave counting analysis:

The trading on Wednesday, February 6, ended with another 40 bp decrease. Thus, the main scenario continues to be worked out, which involves building a downward wave 3 with targets located near the minimum of wave 1 and below. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level can lead to the departure of quotes from the lows reached and the construction of an internal correctional wave of 3. Near the minimum of wave 1, the fall can be completed and the trend section is transformed into a three-wave. News background is now almost zero.

Sales targets:

1,1289 - 0.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1502 - 76.4% Fibonacci

1.1569 - 100.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a downward wave of 3. Thus, now I still recommend selling EUR / USD instruments with targets located near the levels of 1.1289 and 1.1215, which equates to 0.0% and 0.0% Fibonacci. There are no prerequisites for changing the working version and the need to clarify the wave marking. There is no news. A small pullback is possible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for February 7. Strong news background may cause a spike in activity.

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Wave counting analysis:

On February 6, the GBP / USD pair lost another 20 bp, so the current wave counting was fully preserved. It is still expected to build a downward wave 1 or a new downtrend trend. However, much depends on and will depend on the news background. Today, for example, Mark Carney's press conference will be held on the outcome of the Bank of England meeting. On the other hand, the Prime Minister of Great Britain Theresa May will meet today with the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, and border issues on the island of Ireland will be condemned. Any positive information can lead to an increase in the pound and the construction of a correctional wave. Negative - to continue building wave 1 or a.

Shopping goals:

1.3216 - 0.0% Fibonacci (formal goal)

Sales targets:

1.2827 - 50.0% Fibonacci

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave pattern involves the construction of the first wave. Therefore, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2827 and 1.2734, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% in Fibonacci. Furthermore, the fall potential of the pound sterling is very high, but everything will depend on the progress in the Brexit negotiations.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 7, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price before the news will move up in the side channel. The first upper target of 1.2968 is the rolling level of 14.6.% (Yellow dotted line). Moreover, the news will be more of a negative nature.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price before the news will move up in the side channel. The first upper target of 1.2968 is the rolling level of 14.6.% (Yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com