Citigroup: What are the prospects for oil in 2019?

Today, Citigroup investment bank analysts have released updated forecasts regarding the prospects for oil prices in the current year.

From the updated material, it follows that on average this year the barrel of oil of the Brent reference grade will be valued at $70. According to the results of the second quarter, Brent is expected to cost $69 per barrel, which is $9 more than the previous assumption.

Based on the forecast, the barrel will cost $74 in the third quarter and above the previous expectation by 11 dollars.

In Q4, the price is expected to decline to $72 and the forecast is $5 above the previous estimate.

According to the results of Q1 2020, Brent will be valued at $ 65 per barrel.

Explaining the upward revision of the forecast, the experts identified among the reasons for the further decline in oil supply from Iran, Nigeria, Algeria, and Venezuela, as well as the continuing reduction in stocks of raw materials in consuming countries. In Venezuela, where recently a large-scale blackout paralyzed the country's economy, the risks of a repeated power outage remain. In addition, the United States can tighten sanctions on oil exports from Iran.

As a result, the cost of futures for May on Brent crude oil sank by 0.18%, amounting to 68.92 dollars per barrel at around 10:25 London time.

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EUR: Reports on German business community improved sentiment

The euro managed to strengthen its position in tandem with the US dollar after positive data on business sentiment in Germany, which began to gradually improve in March of this year after more than six months of deterioration.

According to the Ifo research institute, the German business sentiment index in March 2019 was 99.6 points against the February figure of 98.7 points. The data significantly exceeded the forecast of economists, who expected the index to be 98.3 points.

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The index was well supported by investors' expectations, while the business climate index for the manufacturing sector continued to decline. Ifo noted that the prospects for the production sphere in March were estimated to be more pessimistic.

Considering that the release of more important fundamental statistics is no longer provided today, traders are closely watching the speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve System.

Charles Evans said that the Fed's interest rates may rise, fall or remain unchanged today. Hence, caution on the part of the Fed seems justified and the policy now comes down to risk management.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago also noted that the Fed's policy will depend on the data, as downside risks are now felt more than positive. Evans predicts GDP growth of 1.75% -2% in 2019 due to the fact that fundamental US macroeconomic indicators remain good.

An interview with Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker also took place today, who said that the outlook for the US economy is still quite good, but the balance of risks is a bit biased in a negative way.

Harker predicts one rate hike in 2019 and another one in 2020. Let me remind you that in the last meeting of the committee, they said that they did not plan to raise interest rates this year. The representative of the Fed predicts that US GDP growth will slightly exceed 2% in 2019 and slow down in 2020.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it remained unchanged. The trading instrument keeps the intermediate level of 1.1295 from further falling, a breakthrough of which will increase the pressure on risky assets. At the same time, it will lead to the updating of last week's lows in the areas of 1.1270 and 1.1225. With an upward correction, the growth of the euro was already limited by the level of 1.1330. However, a repeated test may lead to a larger upward movement in the area of resistance 1.1355.

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Yen returns to the game

In the background of trade wars and the slowdown of the global economy, there is an increased risk of the American recession in the market. It concerns the development of a correction in global stock indices and rumors about the resignation of Theresa May from the post of British Prime Minister, which heightened the demand for safe-haven assets. Currencies such as the Japanese yen, gold, and the Swiss franc feel like a fish in the water amid a sharp rise in volatility and a deterioration in the global risk appetite. But just a week ago, the positions of these assets seemed very fragile.

Dynamics of volatility

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In 2019, the currency of the Land of the Rising Sun has already managed both to amuse and upset its fans. The flash accident allowed her to execute annual targets within a few minutes, but the following implementation of the bearish forecasts for the USD/JPY pair had to be postponed. The de-escalation of the US-Chinese trade conflict, as well as the change in the Fed's worldview, allowed the "bulls" on the analyzed pair to return its quotes to maximum levels from December 20. Meanwhile, stock indices were rapidly recovering, the cost of borrowing was falling, and interest in developing countries' monetary units and carry trade operations grew by leaps and bounds. Under such conditions, funding currencies fall into disgrace and the yen is no exception.

By the end of March, investors began to suspect that both the Fed and Donald Trump are going too far. The US president claims that the duties on $250 billion Chinese imports will remain in force after the conclusion of an agreement with China but Beijing is making concessions in order to cancel them. The inconsistency of interests can be a serious obstacle to the contract signing. At the same time, the yen is likely to benefit more from the escalation of the conflict than in 2018. Last year, all the cream went to the US dollar as the strength of the US economy allowed investors to direct capital to the New World. In 2019, the US is slowing down and the inversion of the yield curve signals growing recession risks. As a result, just as the dollar took the status of a safe-haven from the yen and gold last year, they can return it in the present.

The rhetoric of the Fed is becoming more and more "dovish". If the Central Bank is confident of a further slowdown in GDP and is doing everything possible to avoid a recession then the option of lowering the federal funds rate should not be off the table. The derivatives market estimates the chances of such an outcome in 2019 to be more than 50%, which is a strong argument in favor of completing the cycle of normalizing monetary policy and sales of the US dollar.

Considering the next stage of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, the economic calendar saturated for the United States (including the release of fourth-quarter GDP data and the exacerbation of the political crisis in Britain), these allow the yen to claim the title as the most interesting currency in the last week of March.

Technically, the transformation of the Shark pattern is continuing at 5-0 on the daily chart of the USD/JPY pair. A break of support at 109.65 (50% of the CD wave) will increase the risks of continuing the pair's downward rally.

USD / JPY daily graph

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on March 25. Pound remains in the side channel before an important vote in the British

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

As long as there are no specifics from Theresa May on the voting, the pound remains in a narrow side channel. You can return to purchases only after fixing above the resistance of 1.3222, which will lead to an upward correction in the area of 1.3266 and 1.3316, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a re-decline on the news on Brexit, long positions are best to consider on the rebound from the lows of 1.3136 and 1.3083.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Bears coped with the task in the first half of the day and did not let the pair to reach above the resistance of 1.3222. As long as trading is conducted below this range, the pressure on the pound will remain, which may lead to a decrease in the support area of 1.3136 and 1.3083, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a breakthrough of resistance 1.3222 on the positive news on Brexit, short positions in the pound are best to consider at the resistance levels of 1.3266 and 1.3316.

More in the video forecast for March 25

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The upward correction for the pound is limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 1.3222 area.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 25. Data from the IFO supported the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The euro has slightly strengthened its position against the US dollar in the morning after a good report from the IFO Institute, which published data on the German economy. At the moment, buyers need to break through the resistance level of 1.1324, where a test was observed during the first half of the day, which will lead to a further upward correction to the area of 1.1358 maximum, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of a return to the low of the day to support 1.1294, it is best to consider long positions in the EUR/USD pair on the area of 1.1269 or on the rebound from the support of 1.1247.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers coped with the task in the morning and did not allow the pair to rise above the resistance of 1.1324. While the trade is conducted below this range, the pressure on the euro will remain. However, the main goal will be to break through and consolidate below support 1.1294, which will lead to the formation of a new downward wave and update weekly lows in areas 1.1269 and 1.1247, where I recommend taking profits. If the growth scenario is higher than 1.1324 in the second half of the day, short positions in EUR / USD pair can only be considered on a rebound from the resistance of 1.1358 and 1.1388.

More in the video forecast for March 25

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market with the advantage of sellers.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a further decline in the euro, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 1.1290 area. A breakthrough on the upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1320 will lead to a new wave of growth of the euro.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP/USD analysis for March 25, 2019

GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3244. We found strong bullish momentum.

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According to the H1 time – frame, we found confirmed breakout of the inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is sign that GBP/USD may continue with the upward movement. Most recently, there is also breakout of the bullish flag pattern, which is another sign of the strength. Key resistance at the price of 1.3227 is broken so GBP may test the strong resistance at 1.3377. Support levels are seen at the price of 1.3160, 1.3080 and 1.3009.

Trading recommendation: We are long on GBP from 1.3230 and with target at 1.3377. Protective stop is placed at 1.3150.

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Trading recommendations for the GBP / USD pair - placement of trading orders (March 25)

By the end of the last trading week, the GBP/USD currency pair showed high volatility of 140 points, which resulted to a rollback to the previously passed cluster. From the technical analysis point of view, we see a rollback correction in the direction of the accumulation zone at 1.3220, where the quote slowed down the movement and tried to work out this level in the background of continuous rage on Brexit's controversy. This time we have a large-scale demonstration in London itself, where an estimated 1 million people on streets demanding for a second referendum. What we have are options that the Parliament of Great Britain must make a decision until March 29: agree on an agreement, exit without a deal, cancel the Brexit or hold a new referendum. Any option gives speculators the opportunity to see the races on the market, where you can ride.

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Today, there is silence on the economic calendar but the information on the background will continue to hold the interest of speculators.

Further development:

In analyzing the current trading chart, we see an attempt to work out the accumulation of 1.3220 giving out short positions. It is likely to assume that the pound may be under pressure, continuing to decline in the medium term against the background of thickening clouds due to Brexit. The pound may be under pressure and continue its decline in the medium-term. Considering the current oscillation, I do not exclude a temporary bump in the range of 1.3170 / 1.3220 and we can consider a decline to 1.3313-1.30.30 in the case of a clear price fixation below 1.3170.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to deduce a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Positions for the purchase of traders consider above fixing the price of 1.3220, with the target of 1.3300.

- Positions for sale traders consider after fixing the price lower than 1.3170.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different timeframe (TF) sector, we can see that there is a downward interest in the short and intraday perspective. Due to uncertainty, the medium-term outlook has changed interest to neutral.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 25 report was based on the time of publication of the article)

At the current time, the volatility is 59 points. It is likely that the volatility may remain at a high level in the event that an ambiguous information background is preserved.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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GBP / USD: Theresa May's resignation talks are getting louder but doesn't clarify Brexit

Last week, the European Union gave Britain a couple more weeks so that the country could avoid withdrawing from the alliance without entering into any agreement.

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But will London have enough time to break the deadlock and provide a "soft" Brexit?

Today, the GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.32 mark in anticipation of the next Brexit vote to be held in the British Parliament in the coming days.

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Recall that the EU leaders rejected London's request to postpone the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the bloc to June 30, declaring its readiness to provide a reprieve until May 22 but in a condition that the divorce agreement will be approved by deputies of the House of Commons this week. However, if the deal fails, an emergency EU summit will be convened, where Britain will have to state their further actions, which means that the country will either leave the EU without a deal or a longer Brexit delay will be required.

In turn, Theresa May noted that she would not become the prime minister in which the UK's withdrawal from the EU would be postponed for a long time, which suggests the possible resignation of the head of the cabinet in the absence of ratification of the deal until April 12.

According to British media, May's resignation is only a matter of time and the options now range from immediately replacing her with some of the ministers to leaving her post after a couple of months.

Of course, the United Kingdom may still withdraw its application for withdrawal from the alliance. Thus, the online petition to cancel Brexit has already gained more than 5 million signatures but it still has a much smaller weight than the 18 million votes cast three years ago for the country to leave the EU.

Thus, the upcoming week promises to be tense for the British currency.

The downside risks for the pound are the implementation of the "hard" scenario and the holding of early parliamentary elections.

However, if parliament takes control of Brexit from the government and the majority of the House of Commons deputies advocate for a repeat referendum, this will lead to an increase in the pound.

According to analysts, one of the original decisions is for the legislators to adopt the draft divorce agreement, provided that it is approved by the citizens of the country in a new referendum and three questions are to be raised concerning the vote, either to accept the deal, remain in the EU or leave without deal.

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When supply balances between OPEC production cuts and growth in the United States, oil prices are determined by the dynamics of global demand. In this regard, the fall of Brent and WTI quotes against the background of the collapse of European business activity in the manufacturing sector to the lowest marks in the last 6 years and its American counterpart to the very bottom for 21 months looks logical. Purchasing managers' indices are leading indicators for GDP and its slowdown indicates a further slowdown in the global economy and global demand for black gold.

One of the main drivers of almost 30% of the Brent and WTI rally from the December lows was the de-escalation of the US-Chinese trade conflict. Trade negotiations evolved quite successfully. Donald Trump occasionally talked about progress but as they approached the finish line, investors began to doubt the end of the trade war. First, Beijing is unhappy with the preservation of $250 billion in tariffs on its exports to the States and the US president is not going to cancel them. Secondly, the arena of hostilities may shift from Asia to Europe. Both OPEC (the International Energy Agency) and the United States Energy Information Administration take these risks into account and lower oil demand forecasts.

Dynamics of oil demand forecasts

Adds a negative with the first 2007 drop in the yield curve in the red zone. The differential rates on the 10 and 3-year US Treasury bonds quite clearly predicted recessions in the past. With a time lag of 12-18 months, the American economy may face a recession, which negatively affects domestic demand for black gold and contributes to lower prices. Moreover, interest in safe-haven assets, including the US dollar, has returned in such conditions. Since oil is quoted in this currency, the growth of the USD index contributes to the fall of Brent and WTI quotes.

As for the proposal, the market continues to pull the rope between US companies and OPEC. The growth of oil production to 12 million b/s in the US leads to an increase in reserves and exports. On the other hand, the fall of rigs from Baker Hughes to minimum levels over the past 11 months indicates that another round of shale boom is coming to an end. On the opposite side of the rope is the cartel and other producing countries, including Russia. Saudi Arabia's activity is a serious bullish trump for Brent and WTI as it regularly exceeds production cutbacks. Nevertheless, the fact that Russia is satisfied with the current price level and does not want to roll over the contract creates a certain ceiling for black gold. When there is no agreement in the partners, buyers begin to record profits.

Technically, the rebound from the level of 50% of the CD wave pattern "Shark" was predicted for a long time. It occurred within the framework of the transformation of the model in 5-0. If the bears manage to lower the Brent quotes below the supports by $ 64.1 and $ 58.7 per barrel, the risks of the downtrend recovery will increase.

Brent daily chart

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 25, 2019

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Overview: The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergence on March 25. Euro ceded leadership to US dollar

4h

On the 4-hour chart, the EUR / USD pair declined to23.6% correctional level of 1.1269. Releasing the pair's rate on March 25 from this Fibo level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the 38.2% correction level at 1.1328. There is no maturing divergence in any indicator. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next 0.0% correction level of 1.1177.

The Fib net was formed on boundaries from January 10, 2019 and March 7, 2019.

Daily

On the 24-hour chart, the pair quotes returned to the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. The price quotation from the Fibo level of 127.2% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the European currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the 100.0% correctional level at 1.1553. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% will again work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the 61.8% correction level at 1.0941. In the last 5 months, the pair is trading between the levels of 100.0% and 127.2%.

The Fib net was formed on boundaries from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR/USD pair can be made with the goal of 1.1328 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 23.6% if the pair rebounds from the level of 1.1269.

Sales of the EUR/USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1177 and a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 23.6% if the pair closes below the level of 1.1269.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 25, 2019

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Overview: The GBP/USD has broken resistance at 1.3221 which acts as support this morning. The pair is moving between the levels of 1.3221 and 1.3382. As the trend is still above the 100 EMA, a bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Consequently, the level of 1.3221 remains a key resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will move upwards above 1.3221, which coincides with a ratio 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement. The falling structure does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity above 1.3221, buy above this level with the first target at 1.3382. Moreover, if the pair succeeds to pass through 1.3382, it will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to 1.3487 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, if a breakout happens at 1.3123, this scenario may be invalidated.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 25. The pound remains in instability due to the lack of specifics on Brexit

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Wave counting analysis:

On March 22, the GBP / USD pair rose by 90 bps. Thus, if the upward trend is completed near the 100.0% Fibonacci level, then the pair has started to build a downward section and has already completed the construction of internal waves 1 and 2. If this is true, then the tool will continue to decline as part of wave 3 with targets located under the 29th figure. Unfortunately, the news background remains unstable. There is still no final decision on Brexit. What awaits the country is a clear indication on whether or not the government will change in the near future. It is still unknown. Whether there will be new negotiations with the European Union is doubtful. Therefore, the pound will remain in the potential "zone of turbulence" until the end of this process.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern allows for the construction of an upward wave with targets located near the estimated level of 1.3454; however, I recommend returning to this option only in case of a successful attempt to break through the level of 100.0%. A more likely development of events is now the construction of a downward wave with targets below 29 figures, thus, I recommend sales in small volumes.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 25. Euro is ready to build a new rising wave

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Wave counting analysis:

On Friday, March 22, bidding ended for the pair EUR / USD by 70 bp decrease. Thus, the estimated wave b in the composition of the new upward trend can already be completed. The tool made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which indirectly indicates the pair's readiness to build a new upward wave. The news background for the pair is now with a slight margin in favor of the euro. Still, the Fed last week announced that it was not going to raise the key rate in 2019. And this indirectly indicates a decline in economic growth and the threat of recession.

Sales targets:

1.1280 - 61.8% Fibonacci (small grid)

1.1240 - 76.4% Fibonacci (small grid)

Purchase goals:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair supposedly completed the construction of wave b. Now, I recommend re-buying the pair, initially in small volumes, and as the instrument's transition to the building of the rising wave is confirmed, increase the volumes with targets located near the estimated 1.1448 mark, which equals to 0.0% Fibonacci.

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EUR: Weak eurozone data indicates recession is likely

Rather weak data on activity in the manufacturing and service sectors in Germany, as well as in the eurozone, led to a sharp fall in the euro last Friday. All this once again confirms the fact that the eurozone economy is in a rather weak state, balancing on the verge of recession.

According to the report of IHS Markit, activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany continued to decline in March of this year. Despite preliminary data, traders reacted very quickly. Thus, the PMI for purchasing managers in Germany in March fell to 44.7 points from 47.6 points in February. Germany's composite PMI remained above 50, at the level of 51.5 points. An index value below 50 points indicates a reduction in activity. In IHS Markit noted that the decline in the manufacturing sector in Germany is associated with a decrease in new orders and problems with exports.

France's preliminary composite PMI returned below 50 points and dropped to 48.7 points in March from 50.4 points in February. This happened for the same reason as in Germany, due to the reduction of new orders due to falling external demand.

All of this has affected the weakness of the eurozone economy and the general indicator for the eurozone, where the decline in the purchasing managers index indicates a further slowdown in activity.

According to IHS Markit, the composite PMI PMI for the eurozone in March 2019 dropped to 51.3 points from 51.9 points in February. Economists had expected a decline to 51.8 points.

Data was released in the second half of the day on the American economy. In general, it did not affect the situation in the market.

According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, inventories in the wholesale trade in January 2019 increased by 1.2% to $ 669.87 billion. Economists had expected stocks to fall by 0.2% in January. The ratio stocks / sales in January was 1.34.

Indicators of activity in the manufacturing sector and the US service sector declined in March. The decrease in the overall figure occurred against the background of a slowdown in production growth. According to IHS Markit, the preliminary PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the US manufacturing sector in March 2019 dropped to 52.5 points from 53 points in February. The PMI for the service sector fell to 54.8 points against the February value of 56 points. Index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

Housing sales on the secondary market in the US rose in February. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales increased by 11.1% due to lower interest rates, accelerated earnings growth.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the trading tool keeps the intermediate level of 1.1295 from further falling. A breakthrough of which will increase the pressure on risky assets and lead to the updating of last week's lows in the 1.1270 and 1.1225 areas. With an upward correction in the first half of the day, the euro may be limited to the level of 1.1330, however, larger resistance is seen in the area of 1.1355.

The Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar on Friday after a weak report, which indicated that retail sales in Canada declined in January 2109.

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According to the data, retail sales fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month and amounted to 50.09 billion Canadian dollars. Economists had expected sales to rise by 0.4%. Compared with the same period of the previous year, sales in January increased by 1.1%.

Inflation in Canada rose in February due to food prices. As indicated in the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, Canada's CPI in February showed an annual growth of 1.5%, with a target level of about 2.0%.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences on March 25. Sterling pound is preparing to return to 1.3100

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair had a reversal in favor of the British pound and began the process of growth in the direction of the 100.0% correction level at 1.3300. However, the bearish divergence at the CCI indicator allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a return to the Fibo level of 76.4% at 1.3094. Passing the last divergence peak by the pair will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0%.

The Fib net was formed on boundaries from September 20, 2018 and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair made an increase to the correctional level of 38.2% at 1.3220, which rebounded from it and turn in favor of the US currency. As a result, the process of declining quotations can be continued in the direction of 50.0% correction levels of 1.3171 and 61.8% at 1.3121. Quoting quotes from one of the target Fibo levels will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the sterling pound and the resumption of growth in the direction of 38.2% and 23.6% at 1.3228. The emerging divergences today are not observed in any indicator.

The Fib net was formed on boundaries from March 11, 2019 and March 13, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with targets at 1.3220 and 1.3281 and a Stop Loss order under the level of 50.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3171 on the hourly chart.

Sales of the GBP/USD pair can be made with the target at 1.3121 and a Stop Loss order above the 50.0% level if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.3171 on the hourly chart.

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The threat of recession provokes panic in the financial markets

The Asian session at the auction on Monday did not bring any surprises, supporting massive sales in stock markets, which began on Friday. Nikkei 225 is losing more than 3%, demand for government bonds is noted, June gold futures are trading above 1320, and demand for yen is at a 1.5-month high.

Panic moods reflect the growing understanding of the promise made by the Fed at its meeting on March 21. The US economy began to move towards recession, which means that the world as a whole is beginning to move towards recession. One of the most informative indicators of the economic downturn is the spread on rates between 10-year treasures and short-term 3-month bonds reached zero, 2-year securities are in the half-step, and, as historical experience shows, the inversion of the yield curve always precedes a recession with a temporary lag from 8 to 16 months.

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This conclusion means that the US economy is losing its ability to be a driver of world economic growth, which means it's time to revise long-term strategies. In connection to this, the current trade negotiations between the US and China unexpectedly acquired new meaning. Until recently, it seemed that China was in unfavorable conditions, since the complication of access to the American market would coincide with a slowdown in China's growth, but now the situation looks exactly the opposite.

China sees the weakness of the American position, and therefore, it is not interested in the conclusion of negotiations,, but in maximum tightening them. For the US, on the contrary, it is important to reach an agreement as soon as possible, since every day the Republican position will deteriorate before the next presidential company approaches.

In conditions of growing panic, the demand for defensive assets, including the dollar, will increase. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are subject to a decline, and oil prices may also decline.

EURUSD

The markets barely breathed a sigh of relief when they saw the first signs of a recovery in the eurozone economy after a protracted fall in 2018, and even predicted that the euro would not pay particular attention to the ECB's intention to launch a new wave of TLTRO as a new blow followed.

Friday's preliminary PMI indexes in March showed a noticeable decline relative to February. The German manufacturing PMI collapsed from 47.6p to 44.6p, which was the absolute minimum for 79 months, and even growth in the services sector cannot compensate for the overall slowdown.

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France's second eurozone economy slowed down both in the manufacturing sector and in the services sector, while in the eurozone, manufacturing PMI showed 47.6p against 49.3p. In February, the composite index decline to 51.9p to 51.3p.

The decline in production is pushing the eurozone into recession, as it will lead to an increase in unemployment, a decline in real incomes, and in the future - a slowdown in inflation. The euro suddenly developed a bullish momentum in the evolving conditions, and now even the threat of a recession in the United States is unlikely to help it, because in the United States this threat is still a matter of the future, even if not very distant, and in Europe it is already knocking on the front door.

EURUSD returned to the downward channel forming from January. The resistance zone moved to 1.1330 / 40, and thus, there is a high probability of a decline on Monday to support 1.1230 / 40.

GBPUSD

On Friday, the European Council approved a new timeline for the UK leaving the EU. The decision provides for two options - if the UK Parliament approves the withdrawal agreement, the Brexit process is extended until March 22, but if the Parliament rejects it, then the UK will need to notify the EU of its further actions by April 12.

In any case, the EU intends to resolve the issue of withdrawal before the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held in May 23-26. The EU's rather tough decision was the cause of a riot in the British Cabinet, which, according to unconfirmed data, is preparing Theresa May to be dismissed from her post as a prime minister.

GBPUSD will decline. The pound has high chances to go below 1.3090 and leave the ascending channel.

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Trading Plan 03/25/2019

The Fed's decision to halt the rate hike gave a clear boost to the market against the dollar.

However, unexpectedly, the Brexit theme returned to the market - and everything is confusing again.

Prime Minister Theresa May received a delay until April for new attempts to hold an agreement with the EU through Parliament - and now the release date for Britain is May 25.

On Monday, the Parliament will once again hold another vote on May's plan. Most likely, May will see a new failure - and on Wednesday, the Parliament will vote for all possible options: including a new referendum and version of an agreement with the EU.

Thus, the Brexit theme will be in a fever in the market until Thursday for sure.

We are ready to join the euro's trend if it starts

We buy the euro from 1.1450

Sell the euro from 1.1175

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Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSD for March 25, 2019

BREXIT uncertainty is likely to end up with a no-deal option. However, it might be extended further than June of 2019 as well. Though, there is no final decision yet. GBP has gained momentum over USD recently amid negative economic reports and the Fed's unchanged interest rate.

After three years of debates, the BREXIT issue is still uncertain. Recently, UK Prime Minister Theresa May hinted that she might not bring her twice-defeated BREXIT deal back to the parliament this week. These rumors may cause some political unrest in Britain as well. The UK Average Earning Index report reflected decrease to 3.4% from the previous value of 3.5%, while experts anticipated to see 3.2%. The Unemployment Rate also dropped to 3.9%, even though it was expected to be unchanged at 4.0%. The CPI rose to 1.9% exceeding the expectations of 1.8%.

There are no other important publications anticipated from the UK ahead of the Parliament BREXIT Vote this week.

On the USD side, the economic challenges along with the FED deciding to keep the interest rate unchanged lead to significant weakness of the US currency against GBP. USD is trying to gain momentum in spite of low expectations regarding the final GDP data that is due this week. The index is forecast to slide to 2.4% from the previous value of 2.6%. Additionally, tomorrow's Consumer Confidence report is expected to indicate an increase to 132.1 from the previous figure of 131.4. The US economy is slowing down as the $1.5 trillion tax cuts arose along with reduction in government spending. Moreover, the trade war between the US and China together with a slowdown in the global economic growth and uncertainty ahead of BREXIT also add tension to the situation. Meanwhile, according to Fed's member Bostic, the interest rate may change despite the regulator's decision amid a need for economical stability.

Currently, the pair is expected to be extremely volatile this week as there is a plenty of important economic reports from the UK and the US anticipated to be published. As GBP is gaining momentum over the USD weakness, some short-term gains might be recordered ahead of BREXIT vote this week.

Now, let us look at the technical view. The price rebounced from the 1.31 support area, I expect the further bullish movement towards 1.3400. The bearish sentiment is still quite strong in the market amid of the BREXIT issue. Therefore, the trendline is anticipated to continue its bearish movement to 1.30 support area after retreating from 1.3400-1.3500 resistance area. The trend can be considered bearish, while the price remains below 1.3500.

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Brexit: "conspiracy" against May and options for the development of events

Over the weekend, the news flow regarding the possible prospects of Brexit went off-scale. The media was full of loud headlines that surprised by its diversity. There is a "conspiracy" of ministers against May and the scandal with a 5 million petition against the country's withdrawal from the EU and the accusations of the French president and so on and so forth. The Saturday march against Brexit came about a million Britons according to various estimates, which only added to the overall picture of events.

Despite such a tumultuous weekend, the pound opened the trading week very restrained without a gap. Firstly, the market is no longer responding keenly to the rapidly changing flow of information. Since December, the news background is too saturated and quite contradictory. Secondly, many rumors circulated were almost immediately refuted by official statements and although, as a rule, in such cases, "there is no smoke without fire," official refutations level the initial effect.

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For example, the British influential newspaper it was reported on Saturday that 11 ministers would ask Teresa May to resign on Monday. Otherwise, they will resign. The publication even voiced the names of possible successors to the current prime minister, namely the British Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, Environment Minister Michael Gove and Chancellor of one of the duchies David Lidington. However, British Finance Minister Philip Hammond denied the information that appeared by Sunday evening, adding that the change of prime minister would not help the situation.

By and large, the position of the Minister of Finance is difficult to refute. Brussels will not resume negotiations with London just because the country will change the head of government. In Europe, they have repeatedly stated this and recent events have only confirmed the firmness of their position. Therefore, the fate of Brexit is now exclusively in the hands of the British Parliament. Theresa May can really resign if at this price she will ensure that the deputies approve the deal. According to another British publication, the prime minister will soon announce his decision to resign immediately after the approval of the deal with the EU.

Deputies also need to take into account the growing discontent among the British. More than 5 million citizens of this country have signed an electronic petition for the preservation of Britain within the EU. This is a record value as the last time such a stir was in 2016, when the British, demanded a referendum on the contrary. Now the situation has turned 180 degrees where hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of London with the only slogan: "We changed our mind." In other words, the British deputies will not be able to simply "brush off" the problem by showing passivity. In turn, this means that Britain is on the threshold of important and unconventional political decisions that are not amenable to any intelligible forecast. These are the only probable scenarios that can be realized in one form or another.

First option: Theresa May really resigns in exchange for an approved deal. In this case, not only all conservatives need agreement (75 of which did not support the agreement on March 12) but also representatives of the DUP, who are allies of the Tories in parliament. In turn, they are categorically opposed to the conditions proposed by Brussels, regarding the question of backstop above all. In addition, deputies need to vote for the amendment, which allows submitting the draft transaction to a vote. As is known, the Speaker of the House of Commons blocked the third consideration, referring to the convention 400 years ago where according to which, the deputies cannot re-examine the same issue without making any changes. Of course, if May agrees with the Parliament, these questions will be voted as a "package".

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Second option: London asks Brussels for a longer-term delay, thereby agreeing to participate in the elections to the European Parliament. This option is opposed by the French, whose opinions have to be considered by the other members of the Alliance. Macron can change his opinion, but today such a variant of the development of an event looks unlikely.

It is also unlikely that the deputies will agree to withdraw from the EU without a deal on April 12. Let me remind you that the House of Commons voted against leaving the country without an agreement on March 29, nor ever at all. On the other hand, parliamentarians may re-vote this issue "derailing the country" but this option looks too incredible, given the previous rhetoric of the majority of deputies.

Thus, there are several options for the development of events and all of them are associated with certain difficulties that can be hypothetically overcome. The pound will react depending on which scenario ultimately comes to life. The delay in any form and the more so the approval of the agreement will have a positive effect on the currency. But if the situation finally reaches a dead end, the GBP/USD pair will at least return to the first support level of 1.2930 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart) and further to the area of 27-28 figures.

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Burning Forecast 03/25/2019

Last week the EURUSD made an attempt to start a trend against the dollar, but failed once again.

The reason is the unexpected return of the Brexit theme to the agenda.

There will be a new vote in the British Parliament in agreement with the EU on Monday - in case May's plan fails once again - a new principled vote will be held on Wednesday. May has been given a deadline of April 12 in order to acquire support in Parliament (the EU provided a delay).

We are waiting for the beginning of the trend for the euro.

We are ready to buy the euro from 1.1450

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1175

For more aggressive traders, selling from 1.1270 is possible.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 25. Great Britain has two terms, April 12 or May 22

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Theresa May will hold another vote on the ratification of the Brexit agreement this week in Parliament, and if it is adopted, the UK will leave the EU on May 22. If not, the deadline is April 12th. Volatility provided. Buyers need to stay above 1.3178, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be a signal to buy. If the pound's downward movement resumes, it is best to return to long positions after updating the low around 1.3136 or to rebound from the support of 1.3083. A breakthrough and consolidation above 1.3222 will be another signal to increase in long positions based on the test highs of 1.3266 and 1.3316, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers of the pound will try to form a false breakdown in the area of a resistance of 1.3222, but the main goal will be a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.3178, which will lead to selling GBP/USD to the area of lows of 1.3136 and 1.3083, where I recommend to lock in profits. When the growth scenario is above 1.3222 in the first half of the day, good resistance levels will be seen in the area of 1.3266 and 1.3316, from where you can open short positions immediately to rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of a bullish scenario.

Bollinger bands

In case of an attempt to raise the pound's rate, the upward potential of the Bollinger Bands indicator will be limited to around 1.3222. In case the pound falls, support will be provided by the lower limit in the area of 1.3150.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on March 25, 2019

USD / JPY pair

On Friday, the USD/JPY quote fell by 93 points, stopping on the accumulation of graphic lines on the daily chart. Despite the fact that the price is now below the MACD line of daily scale, the current supports are strong enough, which can push the price back over this line. Then, a technically false price output breakthrough at the support will be formed under the MACD line. Day fixation of prices under it has not yet happened but formally, the price is in the zone of uncertainty at 109.70-110.30. If we expect the price to exit above the upper limit of this range and considered as the main scenario with further growth to the price channel line of 110.90. Fixing below the lower limit may cause the price to fall to the downward support for the price channel of 107.77.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 25. Weak data on the eurozone put pressure on the euro

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

On Friday, a series of weak reports on the eurozone economy led to the euro's decline. At the moment, buyers need to stay above support at 1.1294, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be a signal to open long positions in order to increase towards the area of 1.1324 and 1.1358, where I recommend taking profits. In case the EUR/USD declines due to reports from IFO for Germany, it is best to return to long positions after updating the previous week's low to the area of 1.1269 or to rebound from the support of 11247.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers will try to prevent the pair from rising above the resistance of 1.1324, and the formation of a false breakout there will be a signal to sell the euro with a trend to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.1294, which will lead to forming a new downward wave and an update of the week lows in the area of 1.1269 and 1.1247, where I recommend taking profits. If the IFO reports are better than expected, short positions in EUR/USD can only be considered for a rebound from resistances of 1.1258 and 1.1388.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which indicates the formation of a bearish trend in the market, and failure to consolidate above the moving average in the first half of the day will be a signal to sell the euro.

Bollinger bands

The euro's growth is limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1315, while the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1280 may limit the downward correction.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for March 25, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, there is a high probability of continuing the upward movement. The first upper target 1.3031 is the pullback level of 76.4% - 1.3292 (yellow thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, there is a high probability of continuing the upward movement. The first upper target 1.3031 is the pullback level of 76.4% - 1.3292 (yellow thin line).

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for March 25, 2019

EUR lost significant momentum recently after the price rejected off the 1.1450 area with a daily close. Despite downbeat economic reports, such gains on the USD side signal severe EUR weakness.

According to Finnish Central Bank chief Olli Rehn, the risk of Britain leaving the EU without a deal is the biggest risk which could aggravate the eurozone's economic slowdown in the short term. BREXIT is a biggest threat to both economies. Ahead of the BREXIT vote on March 29th, EUR is expected to lose further momentum against USD. Today, German Ifo Business Climate report is going to be published with the appropriate index to edge up to 98.7 from the previous figure of 98.5. The survey will hardly make a serious impact on EUR.

On the other hand, USD was hurt by recent economic events and reports. USD lost shine as the Federal Reserve states its intention to refrain from raising interest rates throughout this year. As a result, USD is losing favor with investors. This week, the US is due to release revised GDP data which is expected to decrease to 2.4% from the previous value of 2.6%. Nevertheless, USD is still gaining momentum. The US economy is losing steam as the $1.5 trillion tax cuts arise along with cuts in government spending. Moreover, there are other global factors which dent investor confidence: the trade war between the US and China, softening global growth, and uncertainty ahead of BREXIT.

This week is going to be very volatile for both EUR and USD as the economic calendar contains high impact economic reports and events. Though USD gained momentum amid EUR weakness, any negative reading in the US macroeconomic reports like GDP will affect USD momentum. Under the current economic conditions, USD has the upper hand over EUR to gain significant momentum ahead of possible BREXIT this week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The pair is currently trading at bear the psychological level of 1.1300 with higher volatility. The price is making corrections along the way. After the impulsive bearish pressure off the 1.1450 area, further bearish momentum is expected as per the preceding trend. The price is expected to move lower towards 1.1200 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1500 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 25/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.3012 and went straight up towards the level of technical resistance at 1.3207. Despite the bullish efforts, the price is still trading below the orange trendline, so the bears are still in control over this market. The momentum remains neutral and so are market conditions, so the price might be trading sideways for some time until one of the important levels if violated.

Weekly Pivot Ponts:

WR3 - 1.3650

WR2 - 1.3473

WR1 - 1.3340

Weekly Pivot - 1.3164

WS1 - 1.3039

WS2 - 1.2867

WS3 - 1.2742

Trading recommendations:

The market is now under the technical resistance and under the trendline, so the bias for the daytraders remains bearish and only sell orders should be opened as close as possible to the level of 1.3207. The target would be the other side of the horizontal trading range, at 1.3012.

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Weekly review of GBP / USD pair from March 25 to March 30, 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

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For this week, the price will move up with the first target of 1.3406, which is the rollback level of 50.0% (yellow dotted line).

Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- monthly schedule - up.

Conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result in calculating the EUR / USD currency pair candle on the weekly chart: the price is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow for the weekly white candle (Monday is up) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday is up).

For this week, the price will move up with the first target of 1.3406, which is the rollback level of 50.0% (yellow dotted line).

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Technical analysis for EURUSD for March 25, 2019

EURUSD has pulled back below 1.14 and the 1.1350 support level towards 1.13. The pull back was much stronger than initially expected but price has stopped the decline right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support

EURUSD has pulled back below the red trend line resistance that it broke last week. The weekly close was very bad and implies that the entire break out was a fake one. Bulls last chance to confirm that trend has changed to bullish and that the break out was not fake, is to see price start a new upward move from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Bulls now need to recapture 1.1370-1.14 resistance area. Breaking above this resistance area and holding above it will increase the chances of moving towards 1.15. If on the other hand price gets rejected at 1.1370-1.14 or breaks below 1.13 and stays below 1.13, then we should expect price to move towards 1.1140 over the next weeks.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 25/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has retraced 61% of the last wave up afte the false attempt to break throught the technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.1406 - 1.1419 wa smade and the Three Red Soldiers candlestick pattern was made. The bounce was very shallow, about 20 pips so far, the momentum remains weak and negative despite the oversold market conditions, so another move down is still on the table.

Weekly Pivot Ponts:

WR3 - 1.1551

WR2 - 1.1500

WR1 - 1.1377

Weekly Pivot - 1.1325

WS1 - 1.1198

WS2 - 1.1148

WS3 - 1.1029

Trading recommendations:

The sell orders should be placed from the level of 1.1335 in a case of any pull-back upwards and the sell stop orders should be opened below the level of 1.1272, where the local low is. The targets are seen at the levels of 1.1249 and 1.1220.

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Technical analysis for Gold for March 25, 2019

Gold price remains in a short-term bullish trend as long as it holds above $1,300. Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows and is now challenging the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance at $1,322. Breaking it will open the way for $1,330-33 major resistance.

analytics5c987fef74485.png

Blue line - trend line support

Red line - bearish divergence

So far we have one bearish divergence in the RSI and soon we could see another one. The blue trend line support is being respected so far and that is why short-term trend remains bullish. Support is at $1,310-$1,300 area. Breaking below $1,310 would be a bearish sign. A daily close below $1,300 will confirm a top is in. Resistance is at recent highs at $1,320.50 and breaking above it could push price above $1,322 towards $1,330 the next Fibonacci resistance level. At current levels with the RSI diverging, I prefer to be neutral or hold longs with stops at $1,310.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for March 25, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1281 is the pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). In the case of a breakdown of this level, there will be a further downward movement with testing of the support line.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1281 is the pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). In the case of a breakdown of this level, there will be further downward movement with testing of the support line.

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GBP / USD. March 25. Trading system "Regression Channels". Teresa May can resign today

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -17.7288

The GBP / USD currency pair has adjusted to a moving average line, which enables the strengthening of the British pound sterling. In general, the pound sterling continues to throw from side to side. Illogical and difficult to predict jerks often occur. Now, in fundamental terms, something more or less likely it is to assume that it goes to be extremely difficult. There is a huge amount of news from the UK. About 4 million people signed a petition on the refusal of Brexit on the website of the British Parliament, and in London about 1 million citizens demanded a repeated referendum. According to insider information, the UK government is preparing a conspiracy against Theresa May. She is expected to receive an offer to voluntarily leave her post on March 25, that is, today. If May refuses, the Cabinet will threaten her with massive resignations. Honestly, it is not clear why the parliament refused to accept 2 votes of no confidence in Teresa May earlier. However, what is happening now around the situation with Brexit, except as a "dead end" and "complete chaos" cannot be called. In this situation, the resignation of May again looks very likely. All this is dangerous for the country, first of all, by the disordered Brexit. Since there is no reason to assume now that the situation can be resolved. A "tough" Brexit, despite Mark Carney's reassurance, threatens Britain with a financial disaster that the situation can be resolved.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3123

S3 - 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3245

R2 - 1.3306

R3 - 1.3367

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD continues the upward correction, but has not yet managed to consolidate above the MA. Thus, short positions remain relevant with targets at 1.3123 and 1.3062 if the pair remains below the moving average.

Long positions will again become relevant not earlier than traders overcoming the moving average line. In this case, the bulls will again seize the initiative on the market, and the first targets for the longs will be the levels of 1.3245 and 1.3306.

In addition to the technical picture, the fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel contains the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel contains the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that are colored bars in blue or purple.

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BITCOIN Analysis for March 25, 2019

Bitcoin has been struggling and consolidating at the edge of $4,000 after impulsive bearish pressure observed recently which aroused after the rejection off the $4,100 area. Though the bearish pressure was very impulsive, it failed to sustain the impulsive bearish momentum to push the price even lower.

The price recently formed a downward sloping triangle. If the pattern is broken, a further step will be to break above $4,000. This will lead the price higher towards $4,250 in the coming days. The volatility is still quite high in Bitcoin. However, the price is likely to create a clear path to progress higher after a breakout above this corrective structure. As the price remains above $3,800-80 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 3,500-600, 3,800-80

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Europe stands in the abyss

On the final day of the previous week, extremely weak data from Europe pulled down world markets, reminding them that the eurozone economy and its leader Germany continues to show a slowdown in economic growth, already indicating a decline.

The business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Germany, published on Friday, fell to 44.7 points against 47.6 points in March against expectations of weak growth to 48.0 points. In recent years, after the crisis of the end of "zero" only in the summer of 2012, the figure dropped to 43.0 points, not to mention the nearly vertical collapse in the fall of 2008. After reaching a local high last winter, the indicator steadily declined, making attempts at a weak recovery.

A similar picture is observed in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone. The indicator also showed a fall to 47.6 points in March against the February value of 49.3 points and a forecast of a weak increase to 49.5 points. The indicator, like the German one, moved down last winter.

In fact, the figures presented confirmed our fears that the eurozone economy and, most importantly, Germany are showing strong signs of a recession, which was reflected in the reaction of the markets on Friday. Investors sold off risky assets. The main European stock indices fell by an average of 2.0%. The US lost about the same amount. Quotes of oil and industrial metals were also under pressure.

Naturally, on this wave of pessimism, defensive assets – government bonds of economically strong countries, among which the leaders were American, gold, and from the safe haven currencies - the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the US dollar. The main currency pair fell in the moment on one figure.

Why was there such a strong reaction to local economic data from Europe? And they pointed out that the beginning of the economic recession in Europe is likely to be the catalyst for the start of this process in the United States and could generally result in a severe global crisis, before which the events of 2008-09 will seem like flowers. If then the ECB had the opportunity to withstand the crisis by lowering interest rates and incentive measures, known as quantitative easing, now it does not have such tools. Interest rates are already near zero and even lower. Turning on the printing press with a new force will only slow down the process of decomposition, but not eliminate it, which means that an abyss opens up before Europe, from which it will be extremely difficult to break free, which could threaten the collapse of the euro area and even regional military conflicts.

Assessing such prospects, we believe that the single European currency will remain under pressure, if published and more data will confirm our concerns, the risk that the pair would further fall will only increase.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair is consolidating above 1.1285 after a landslide fall on Friday. It may continue to decline to 1.1215, if today's data coming out of Germany turns out to be weaker than forecasts.

The USDJPY pair found support at 109.25 and may continue to decline to 109.25, both after a rebound to 110.35, and after falling below 109.80, if negative sentiment in the market reappears.

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EUR / USD. March 25. Trading system "Regression Channels". Eurocurrency collapsed, but still retains good chances for growth.

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -135.0896

On Monday , March 25, the EUR / USD currency pair maintains the prospects for a downward movement even after the pair's two-day collapse. Despite the fact that Eurocurrency frankly collapsed in recent days, although there were no valid fundamental reasons for this, the market's main attention is still focused on the UK and the Brexit process. We will not touch on this topic right now and will try to determine what awaits the EUR / USD pair in the near future. Today, no important macroeconomic publications in the European Union and the United States will be published. A strong collapse of the euro in recent days means at least a change in for a downward trend and the need for a technical upward correction. Eurocurrency may again go down to the minima in the region of 1,1200 - 1,1300. The turning points up in this area were already as many as 7. Thus, in general, If you look at the higher timeframe, we are witnessing a long-term flat. Now, when the Fed, in fact, refused to continue the gradual tightening of monetary policy, the US dollar is losing one of its main trump cards in its opposition to the euro currency. Thus, we believe that in the coming weeks, the European currency has more chances for growth. However, technically, the instrument now needs to return to the area above the moving average line.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1292

S2 - 1.1261

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1322

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1383

Trading recommendations:

Currency pair EUR / USD continues to move down. Thus, it is now recommended to consider sell orders with targets at 1.1292 and 1.1261. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator up will signal the beginning of an upward correction.

Buy-positions will become relevant not earlier than fixing the pair back above the moving average line with targets at 1.1383 and 1.1414, as the trend for the pair in this case will change to ascending.

In addition to the technical picture, the fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel contains the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel contains the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes .

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that are colored bars in blue or purple.

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Weekly review of the EUR / USD pair from March 25 to March 30, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

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After a powerful breakthrough of the re

sistance line at 1.1356 (red bold line), the price still managed to close below the line of 1.1301 while moving up. Once again, the market will try to break through the resistance line this week.

Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- monthly schedule - down.

Conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result in calculating the EUR / USD currency pair candle on the weekly chart: the price is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow for the weekly white candle (Monday is up) and the absence of the second lower shadow (Friday is up).

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Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 25/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The BTC/USD pair has been slowly trading inside of the narrow horizontal zone located between the levels of $3,967 - $4,048 with a little downside bias. The momentum remains weak and negative with clearly supports the current wave scenario of this pair, in which there is a missing sub-wave (c) in the wave 2 of a higher degree. The target level for wave 2 is way below the current price, at $3,813 and any violation of the level of $3,967 will be a first sigh that the sub-wave (c) continues to unfold.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,204

WR2 - $4,154

WR1 - $4,072

Weekly Pivot - $4,017

WS1 - $3,925

WS2 - $3,867

WS3 - $3,781

Trading recommendations:

The market is still unfolding the wave (c) to the downside, so according to this bias only sell orders should be opened on every upwards correction up to the level of $4,048. The targets ( take profit levels) are seen at the levels of $3,967 and way lower at $3,813.

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EUR/USD: weak European reports and Trump's new protege

On Friday, the euro plunged into the 12th figure within a fairly strong downward pulse. Bearish sentiment among traders is due to several reasons. First, it is the growth of anti-risk sentiment in the market, and secondly - the release of disappointing data from Europe. The Brexit theme has added a negative fundamental picture: the growing tangle of contradictions completely confused investors. As a result, the pair lost almost 200 points in two days, marking new price targets.

It is worth noting that the single currency was declining even against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, which is also under certain pressure after the Fed's dovish meeting and the news that Trump plans to appoint Stephen Moore, who is a consistent supporter of soft monetary policy, to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. But EUR/USD traders shifted the focus of their attention from American events to European problems, especially since the dollar was also used by many market participants as a defensive asset.

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But the recently published European data were disappointing. The German manufacturing activity index (PMI), contrary to forecasts, has declined again - that's three months ago. Since January, this indicator has been below the key 50th mark, thus demonstrating the deterioration of the situation. Experts predicted a slight increase - from 47.6 to 48.0 points, but the real numbers were much lower - at around 44.7 points. The French also disappointed: after two months of staying above the level of 50, the indicator was again in the area of 49 points. The European PMI showed a similar trend, confirming the presence of a systemic problem. It is worth recalling here that during its March meeting, the European Central Bank had once again lowered its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation - the second time in the last three months. According to the regulator, the eurozone economy will grow by only 1.1% this year, while the previous forecast suggested an increase of up to 1.7%.

Regarding inflation, the US central bank also significantly reduced its expectation: growth is projected to reach 1.2% this year (against the early forecast of 1.6%), and to 1.5% next year (against 1.7%). Judging by the dynamics of PMI, real GDP figures are barely reaching the forecast level. In turn, all this suggests that the matter of raising the rate will not be considered until the second half of next year, whereas traders should not rule out a reverse step this year. Although the monetary policy easing scenario was not discussed at any of the recent meetings, such an option cannot be ruled out, given the recent releases.

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The market is well aware of this fact. Obviously, the rhetoric of ECB members will only soften in the near future, especially against the background of "stalling" negotiations between the US and China. According to rumors, Trump significantly tightened his position on future trade relations, after which the negotiation process became more complicated. This fact increased the pressure on the single currency, since the European economy is largely dependent on the Chinese. China is the second largest trading partner of the European Union (after the United States), the volume of trade between them exceeds 1.5 billion euros per day. For example, in 2017, EU exports to China amounted to $198 billion, and imports from there were valued at 374 billion. Therefore, the prospects of resuming a trade war between the superpowers are scaring traders, especially against the background of a slowdown in the growth of China's GDP.

The growing uncertainty around Brexit also does not make it possible for EUR.USD buyers to show character. The latest events have brought the situation to a standstill: on the one hand, Brussels voiced harsh conditions of a delay, on the other hand, the British deputies continue to stand on their own. In addition, many Britons are demanding the abolition of Brexit as such: almost 5 million British citizens have already signed the petition on the internet. On Saturday, tens of thousands of them came out to protest, demanding to leave the country in the European Union. It is difficult to predict how this epic will end. The uncertainty exerts indirect pressure on the single currency, increasing the overall pressure.

At the same time, it should be remembered that the US currency is also going through hard times. By and large, the greenback regained its position only due to global tensions over the prospects of US-Chinese relations and the world economy as a whole. But if we ignore this issue, there is no support for the dollar anymore. The Fed finally paused the process of tightening monetary policy, while Trump plans to strengthen the Fed's "dovish" wing. The other day he said that he would nominate Stephen Moore to the Senate for approval as a member of the governing council of the Fed. Moore is an active critic of hard monetary policy in general, and Jerome Powell in particular.

In addition to this fact, dollar bulls were also disappointed with the data on manufacturing activity (ISM) in the US, which was much worse than expected, having updated an eighteen-month low (although still above the 50-mark, in contrast to European similar indicators).

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Thus, the euro-dollar pair has the potential to further decline. But downward dynamics might be limited. The price is approaching a strong support level of 1.1220 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily and weekly charts). This level was "too tough" for bears of the pair, who twice in the last six months tried to gain a foothold in the 11th figure. Therefore, when approaching this target, you should be careful (denoting stop-loss) or consider long positions. The nearest upward target of corrective growth is the mark of 1.1340, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart.

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Ethereum Elliott Wave analysis for 25/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The ETH/USD pair has been trending around the level of 134.00 lately which is in the middle of the local range between the levels of 130.94 - 139.63. Moreover, the price is still under the trendline (marked in orange), which indicates an inability of bulls to move higher towards the level of 139.63. The wave (c) of the wave X of the higher degree is still unfolding and it should break through the support at the level of 130.94 with ease. The nearest target then is seen at the level of 127.85.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 140.08

WR2 - 144.31

WR1 - 138.13

Weekly Pivot - 134.32

WS1 - 128.34

WS2 - 124.63

WS3 - 118.55

Trading recommendations:

The market is still unfolding the wave (c) to the downside, so according to this bias only sell orders should be opened on every upwards correction up to the level of 139.63 ( the lower boundary of the supply zone). The targets ( take profit levels) are seen at the levels of 130.94 and 127.85.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on March 25

Forecast for March 25:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1378, 1.1341, 1.1318, 1.1280, 1.1265, 1.1238 and 1.1203. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward structure of March 20. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range of 1.1280 - 1.1265. In this case, the goal is 1.1238. For the potential value for the downward movement, we consider the level of 1.1203, after reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1318 - 1.1341. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 1.1378, this level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of March 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1318 Take profit: 1.1340

Buy 1.1345 Take profit: 1.1376

Sell: 1.1265 Take profit: 1.1240

Sell: 1.1236 Take profit: 1.1205

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For the Pound / Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3253, 1.3206, 1.3161, 1.3043, 1.3018, 1.2976, 1.2914 and 1.2881. Here, we are watching the downward structure of March 19. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown 1.3112. In this case, the first goal is 1.3043. A passage at the price of the noise range 1.3043 - 1.3018 will lead to the development of a downward trend on the scale of H1. Here, the goal is 1.2976, and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level 1.2976 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2914. For the potential value for the downward structure, we consider the level of 1.2881, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3206 - 1.3253. The latter is a key support for the downward structure of March 19. Its breakdown will have to develop the upward cycle. Here, the first target is 1.3311.

The main trend is the downward structure of March 19, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3250

Buy: 1.3255 Take profit: 1.3310

Sell: 1.3112 Take profit: 1.3045

Sell: 1.3016 Take profit: 1.2978

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For the Dollar / Franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0064, 1.0037, 1.0021, 0.9995, 0.9974, 0.9942, 0.9928 and 0.9902. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of March 20. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 0.9974 - 0.9995. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.0021, in the range of 1.0021 - 1.0037 consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.0037 will allow you to count on the movement towards a potential target - 1.0064.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range 0.9942 - 0.9928. The breakdown of the latter value will have to the formation of a downward structure. Here, the first potential target is 0.9902.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of March 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9974 Take profit: 0.9995

Buy : 0.9997 Take profit: 1.0020

Sell: 0.9940 Take profit: 0.9928

Sell: 0.9926 Take profit: 0.9902

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For the Dollar / Yen pair, the key levels on the scale are: 110.39, 110.09, 109.93, 109.60, 109.31 and 109.05. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward structure of March 15. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 109.60. The goal here is 109.31, and consolidation is near this level, and hence the probability of going into correction is high. For the potential value for the downward movement, we consider the level of 109.05.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range 109.93 - 110.09. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 110.39. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: the downward structure of March 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.93 Take profit: 110.07

Buy: 110.11 Take profit: 110.36

Sell: 109.60 Take profit: 109.33

Sell: 109.29 Take profit: 109.07

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3539, 1.3500, 1.3481, 1.3447, 1.3405, 1.3383 and 1.3348. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of March 20. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 1.3447. In this case, the goal is 1.3481, in the range of 1.3481 - 1.3500 consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3539, after reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3405 - 1.3383. Breaking the last value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 1.3348. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of March 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3447 Take profit: 1.3480

Buy : 1.3500 Take profit: 1.3539

Sell: 1.3405 Take profit: 1.3384

Sell: 1.3381 Take profit: 1.3350

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For the pair Australian dollar / Dollar key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7119, 0.7097, 0.7083, 0.7059, 0.7031, 0.7011 and 0.6982. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of March 21. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown 0.7059. In this case, the goal is 0.7031, in the range of 0.7031 - 0.7011, short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6982, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7083 - 0.7097. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the goal is 0.7119.

The main trend is the downward structure of March 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7083 Take profit: 0.7096

Buy: 0.7099 Take profit: 0.7119

Sell : 0.7059 Take profit : 0.7033

Sell: 0.7028 Take profit: 0.7012

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For the Euro / Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 125.01, 124.57, 124.28, 123.83, 123.44 and 123.03. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of March 20. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 123.83. Here, the target is 123.44, in the range of 123.83 - 123.44, price consolidation. For the potential value for the downward movement, we consider the level of 123.03, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range 124.28 - 124.57. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 125.01. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure of March 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 124.28 Take profit: 124.55

Buy: 124.58 Take profit: 125.00

Sell: 123.80 Take profit: 123.48

Sell: 123.42 Take profit: 123.06

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For the Pound / Yen pair, key levels on the H1 scale are: 146.56, 145.77, 145.28, 144.25, 143.72, 142.84 and 142.24. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of March 14. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 144.25 - 143.72. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 142.84. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 142.24, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 145.28 - 145.77. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 146.56.

The main trend is the downward structure of March 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.28 Take profit: 145.75

Buy: 145.80 Take profit: 146.55

Sell: 144.25 Take profit: 143.72

Sell: 143.70 Take profit: 142.86

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