Trading plan 05/09/2018

Trading plan 05/09/2018

The overall picture: Trump hit the markets.

On Tuesday, Trump announced the US withdrawal from the "nuclear deal" with Iran and about imposing the most stringent sanctions against Iran (for the continuation of nuclear and missile programs despite the agreement). I recall that just before this decision, the heads of Germany and France personally met with Trump and asked him not to break the deal.

The markets already felt the impact. Oil rose in price to 71 dollars, the maximum since 2014. Iran is the third largest oil supplier in OPEC. Boeing and Airbus lost a deal for $ 40 billion. Now, it is impossible to supply airplanes and spare parts to Iran.

Probability of tension in the US-EU direction is due to Iran, and the situation in the Middle East is aggravated.

While markets continue to buy the dollar but we expect the dollar to fall in the coming days.

GBP / USD:

We are buying from 1.3460. We sell from 1.3770.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/AUD for May 9, 2018

After breaking below 1.60 price area with a daily close, currently EUR/AUD price is retracing towards the area to retest it as a resistance to continue its bearish pressure in the coming days. The pair has been quite volatility lately whereas AUD has been the dominant currency during this corrective price structure.

AUD has been struggling with the recent economic reports published this week which has lead the bulls to push the price higher recently. The Australian Retail Sales report was published with a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.2%. The worse economic report helped EUR to gain momentum against AUD which is expected to remain constant for certain period only.

On the EUR side, today the French Industrial Production report was published with a decrease to -0.4% from the previous value of 1.1% which was expected to be at 0.4%. The Italian Retail Sales report was also published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.7% which was expected to be at 0.1%.

As of the current scenario, EUR has been quite impulsive with the bullish momentum against AUD which is expected to come to an end very soon while AUD is going to take over with its gains in the coming days. To sum up, AUD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below the 1.60 resistance with confluence to the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well which is expected to push the price much lower towards 1.5750 support area in the coming days. The current price action is quite volatile and expected to push lower as of the market structure formed recently. As the price remains below 1.60 with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair.

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Global macro overview for 09/05/2018

Recently, the global investors have been able to observe the dynamic decreases in the NZD/USD currency pair. The decreases were mainly caused by the strengthening US dollar, which brought the price around local support located in the price region of 0.6950.However, the current trend may be reversed tomorrow, when we will learn the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which will decide on the interest rates. The consensus points to maintaining current levels at 1.75%. Everything will therefore depend on the overtone of the monetary policy statement.

In the case of the hawkish statement of the Central Bank of New Zealand and the increased possibility of interest rate hikes in the near future, the market participants should witness a defense of the currently tested level of support and recovery at least near 100% geometry slightly above the round 0.7000 level. In a case of an extension to the upside, the next target is seen at the level of 0.7055.

On the other hand, assuming that the neutral or dovish RBNZ attitude is maintained as to further monetary policy, the most likely scenario will be the continuation of the move towards the south. If the level 0.6945 is breached, the road to attack for a last month low in the area of 0.6820 will open.

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Global macro overview for 09/05/2018

The leaks worked, and Trump's unpredictability did not show his greatest strength. The US unilaterally withdraws from the agreement with Iran and restores economic sanctions within 3-6 months. The good news is that the US does not impose additional sanctions, but the secretary of the treasury Mnuchin said that the purpose of yesterday's decision is to open the process to a new agreement. However, this does not change the fact that the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East is growing. Investors will also be wondering what means of pressure Washington will apply to countries supporting economic relations with Iran. Trump's earlier activities in the field of import duties show one way of exerting influence.

The main reaction relates to oil prices, which yesterday passed a fair swing due to contradictory press reports. However, breaking the agreement means that in half a year the availability of the raw material will fall by about half a million barrels per day - imports from Iran will be limited by Korea, Japan, Italy or the Netherlands. Saudi Arabia has already announced that it does not intend to loosen the mining restriction agreement because of this, although other countries within the OPEC (+ Russia) may not now be so conscientious in complying with the provisions. Thus, finally, the rally in oil prices may stop and quickly reverse, but for now, investors are in a buying rush additionally supported by positive data on US stocks (a drop in the previous week by 1.85 million barrels according to the API).

From the currency market perspective, it is more conducive to maintaining USD domination across the board. Geopolitical tensions either encourage people to withdraw capital from the markets going down, or they simply push investors to reduce their speculative positions, where the dollar sales still prevail. In addition, the world has not collapsed after Trump's decision, so business can return to normal, and this norm in recent days is favorable for the dollar.

So far, the biggest loser is AUD, so let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. As the Crude Oil was rallying after the Trump's decision, the AUD fell lower towards the level of 0.7410. The drop has ended with a pin bar called The Hammer, so this price action might indicate a possible corrective pullback towards the level of 0.7472 or 0.7490. The extremely oversold market conditions and clear bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator support the short-term bullish bias. The key technical resistance is seen at the level of 0.7560.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 9, 2018

Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 9, 2018

EUR/JPY

There is a shallow bullish effort on the EUR/JPY cross in the context of a downtrend. The shallow bullish rally should ultimately give good short-selling opportunities. There is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the price is expected to continue going southwards.

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The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The market is below the supply zone 130.00, going towards the demand zones at 129.50 and 129.00. The targeted demand zone would be breached to the downside today or tomorrow. The bears are still in control.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 9, 2018

USD/JPY

After consolidating from the beginning of this week till yesterday, a rise in the bullish momentum was witnessed. This has given credence to the recent bullishness in the market. The supply level at 109.50 has already been tested and it would be breached to the upside, as another supply level at 110.00 is targeted.

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The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which is a sign of buyers' strength. However, the bullish effort might still be short-lived.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 9, 2018

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair has been consolidating between the support level at 1.0000 (the key psychological level) and the resistance level at 1.0050. The consolidation has been going on for a few days but there would soon be a breakout in the market, which would most probably favor bulls. The outlook on the market continues to be bright.

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There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which makes short trades illogical at the moment. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the overbought region. The conditions in the market are currently favorable to buyers.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for May 09, 2018

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair confirmed the domination of the bullish bias by forming a new positive trend and its stability above the bullish channel's support at 146.90. Stochastic's rally to 50 level assists to provide the required positive momentum, to confirm the positive continuation that might push the price to achieve extra targets by reaching 148.90 and 150.80. Note that suffering extra negative pressures and attempt to reach below the main current support, so that will increase the chance to change the main trend and begin building negative trading to suffer big losses that might begin from 146.25 and 145.30. The expected trading range for today is between 147.40 and 148.90

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Daily analysis of gold for May 09, 2018

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Overview

Gold price has been trading downwards since morning to approach 1,301.20 level as suggested in our last report. As long as the price is between the mentioned support and 1,316.48 resistance, the sideways move scenario will remain dominant on the intraday basis, waiting to surpass one of these levels to detect the next targets clearly. To review the expected targets after the breach, please check our morning issued report. The expected trading range for today is between 1300.00 support and 1325.00 resistance.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/GBP for May 9, 2018

EUR/GBP has been quite bearish and volatile recently above the support area of 0.8700-50. Both EUR and GBP has been struggling with the economic reports published recently whereas EUR seemed to have an upper hand over GBP for last few weeks.

Ahead of the upcoming Uk's Bank Official Rate and the BOE Inflation report, which is to be published tomorrow, the market is currently quite indecisive and volatile. Though the Official Bank Rate is expected to be unchanged at 0.50% but certain volatility is expected in the market as the news publish. Today BRC Retail Sales Monitor report was published with a decrease to -4.2% from the previous value of 1.4% which was expected to be at -0.7%. The worse economic reports of GBP were not quite effective for EUR to gain impulsive momentum over GBP, whereas the market still remains indecisive and corrective.

On the other hand, today the French Industrial Production report was published with a decrease to -0.4% from the previous value of 1.1% which was expected to be at 0.4%. Besides, the Italian Retail Sales report was also published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.7% which was expected to be at 0.1%.

As of the current scenario, both currencies in the pair are going through worse economic reports for which the definiteness of the upcoming trend momentum is still on hold. Though EUR has been the dominant currency in the pair for last few days but ahead of the upcoming GBP high-impact economic reports may also lead to certain indecision and volatility. To sum up, EUR is expected to extend its gains over GBP in the coming days if GBP report and events remains neutral in nature.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 0.8750 from where it is expected to gain further bullish momentum in the coming days. After the recent false breakout below 0.87 price area with a daily close, the bullish momentum forming a Bullish Divergence is still quite active and expected to push the price higher towards 0.90 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.87 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected in this pair.

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Daily analysis of silver for May 09, 2018

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Overview

The tight range continues to dominate the silver price, which fluctuates around the EMA50. The price keeps within the sideways track that appears on the chart, confined between 16.15 support and 16.80 resistance. I'm waiting for the price to surpass one of these levels to detect the next targets clearly, reminding you that breaking this support will push the price towards 15.49 as the next negative target. Breaching the resistance will motivate the price to attempt to recover and achieve gains that start at 17.43. The expected trading range for today is between 16.20 support and 16.55 resistance.

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Analysis of Silver for May 09, 2018

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Recently, silver has been trading sideways at the price of 16.38. According to the H1 time frame, I found that the price is trading inside of the potential bullish flag, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The breakout of the bullish flag may confirm further bullish continuaiton, so watch for potential breakout. If you want to trade inside the flag, watch for potential upward target at 16.48 (resistance).

Resistance levels:

R1: 18.57

R2: 16.64

R3: 16.76

Support levels:

S1: 16.34

S2: 16.22

S3: 16.14

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Analysis of USD/JPY for May 09, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 109.79. According to the H4 time frame, I found a rising channel. Buyers are in control, which is a sign that selling looks risky. Most recently, I found a breakout of the flat base in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 110.00 and 111.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 109.38

R2: 109.62

R3: 109.90

Support levels:

S1: 108.85

S2: 108.58

S3: 108.33

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 09, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $8,938. Bitcoin enthusiasts rejoice. The technical details have emerged about Sirin Finney, an ultra secure mobile device promising to keep your cryptocurrency transactions private. The phone will feature an embedded cold storage wallet, and will be made by the same company that makes the iPhone. Technical picture on Bitcoin looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time-frame, I found that potential corrective C wave is in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I found few bearish flags in the background, which is another sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $8,609.

Support/Resistance

$9,218 – Intraday resistance

$8,937– Intraday support

$8,610 – Objective target 1

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Euro has not lost chances for a correction

EUR / USD pair

On Tuesday, the euro was under pressure for the whole day from a variety of political and economic factors. Germany's trade balance for March was better than forecast of 22.0 billion euros against 19.9 billion. The indicator was revised to increase from 19.2 to 19.4 billion euros in February. Germany's industrial production added 1.0% against expectations of 0.8% in March. Speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell in Switzerland was quite aggressive giving a message of a rhythmic-sounded for further increase in rates. he head of the Federal Reserve even noted that a number of institutional investors, in spite of the excitement around the topic of raising rates, are in fact not quite ready for such tightening. Under the impression of the euro was before the speech of Donald Trump, which was late in the evening. As expected, the U.S. president tore up the nuclear deal with Iran, but postponed the imposition of sanctions "of the highest level" for half a year (prior to the coordination of all issues with the Congress), which sharply reduced the nervousness of the markets. Also, the EU spoke out against the break-up of the nuclear deal with Iran. Only Israel supported Israel. As a result, the euro fell 56 points and gold closed at the opening level. Meanwhile, the price of oil did not change and shows moderate growth today in the Asian session.

Today, European data on the industrial output in France for April will be published, with a forecast of 0.4% after 1.2% in March, as well as the retail sales in Italy for March with a forecast of 0.1% after 0.4% in February. The US may weaken inflation indices. The base producer price index (PPI) for April is expected to grow by 0.2% a month, but year on year forecast will decrease from 2.7% to 2.4%. The total PPI is also expected to grow by 0.2% a month, but down from an annualized rate of 3.0% to 2.8%. Wholesale stocks of warehouses in the final evaluation for March can increased from 0.5% to 0.6%. But, the EIA report on oil and petroleum products in the US on May 4 - forecast -0.2 million barrels against the growth of 6.2 million a week earlier may not be in favor of the dollar.

Thus, the price of the euro has reached a significant from the technical point of view of the target range of 1.1820 / 35. To further reduce to 1.1710 / 20 we need new untouched reports. e do not doubt their imminent arrival, but for now a correction to 1.1935 is possible.

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The US withdraws from a nuclear deal with Iran

The US dollar continues its major upward trend against a number of risky assets, especially against the European currency.

Yesterday's speech by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, and a number of good fundamental statistics led to the renewal of the next lows in the EUR/USD pair.

According to the report of the National Federation of Small Business USA, the small business index in April this year, compared with March, rose to 104.8 points. These data practically coincided with the forecasts of economists.

The consumer sentiment index, according to the University of Michigan, fell slightly in April this year. It is important to note that this index reflects the moods of households and their confidence in the US economy. According to the data, in April this year compared with March, the index fell to the level of 98.8 points. However, the index rose compared with April 2017.

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As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, so far there is not a single hint of a reversal of the downward trend. A breakthrough in the support level of 1.1830 could lead to a new large wave of euro sales, with a yield to the lows of around 1.1790 and 1.1740. The main goal of the bears will be the test area of 1.1700. You can count on an upward correction in the euro only after the return and consolidation at the resistance level of 1.1880.

Yesterday, important attention of traders was focused on the evening performance of US President Donald Trump, who made a number of statements related to the Iranian nuclear deal.

The US president called Iran a regime of great terror, and a nuclear deal by a terrible unilateral agreement. Trump said that the US would withdraw from the nuclear deal.

Despite a number of harsh statements, a number of other countries did not support the withdrawal from this program.

For example, French President Macron said that France, Britain, and Germany regretted that the US decided to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran. The EU representative Mogherini noted that as long as Iran fulfills the terms of the nuclear deal, the EU will remain committed to the full implementation of this agreement.

According to Donald Trump, if you do not withdraw from a nuclear deal with Iran, then the nuclear arms race will begin in the Middle East.

It also became known that the United States will once again introduce economic sanctions against Iran at the highest level, and sanctions will be imposed against any countries that help Iran in terms of nuclear weapons.

The US President also noted that if Iran continues to pursue its nuclear goals, it will face more significant problems than ever before.

The main attention was attached to oil quotes, which before the performance fell sharply to the level of $67 per barrel by the WTI brand, and then continued their growth, returning to a monthly high of around $ 71 per barrel. Most likely, the upward trend in black gold will continue.

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EUR / USD: buy a dollar, but not today

The dollar continues to systematically advance across the market, ignoring many of the potential risks. The yield of 10-year US bonds is kept at a high level. In May, this indicator did not fall below 2.9%. In turn, the EUR/USD pair also follows the general trend, demonstrating the southern trend.

Yesterday, the pair tried to break through and consolidate below the level of 1.1880 (though, unsuccessfully) and today, the EUR/USD bears again stormed this intermediate-key level. Given the fundamental picture, the dollar still sells this target, heading to the bottom of the 18th figure. To date, almost all factors play in favor of the US currency, while the existing risks are hypothetical.

Today, in the international economic conference in Zurich, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell gave a speech. Here, it is worth recalling that following the results of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve, Powell did not communicate with journalists, so the market today expected additional comments on the May meeting. However, the head of the Federal Reserve did not live up to these expectations. He limited himself to general phrases, and basically said that the policy of the Central Bank should be fairly predictable. He indicated that the actions of the regulator should not surprise or shock the markets. Powell stressed that the Fed is successfully coping with this task. The head of the Federal Reserve also said that some investors and financial institutions "may not be ready" to tighten monetary policy, although this process has had a limited impact on capital flows in recent years.

As we can see, the speech of Jerome Powell was not specific, and his hints were too veiled for any significant organizational conclusions. He did not comment on the text of the closing statement at the last meeting, assessing the likelihood of a fourfold rate hike this year. Therefore, it is not surprising that the dollar bulls actually ignored this speech, considering the absence of criticism as a positive signal.

The European currency in the EUR/USD pair is forced to submit to the hegemony of the dollar due to its own weakness and pervasive pessimism. The economy of the alliance is showing a slowdown, and this fact increasingly reminds it of itself. Key indicators, such as GDP and inflation, were below the weak forecasts. The growth of the European economy slowed in the first quarter to 0.4% with the GDP growth in France, Belgium, Austria all declining. The main consumer price index also turned out to be in the "red zone" at 0.7% instead of the expected 0.9%.

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Not surprisingly, on this background, investors' expectations have collapsed to the lowest values since January this year. The corresponding indicators from IFO and ZEW indicate the pessimism of European investors, all the more so amid growing uncertainty around the prospects of Brexit. The last puzzle in the picture of general pessimism was the indicator of production orders in Germany, which showed a significant reduction.

The rhetoric of ECB representatives also exerts pressure on the euro. For example, the senior economist of the European Central Bank, Peter Praet, said today that the EU economy still needs monetary incentives since the latest data indicate a "slowdown" in the economy despite steady expansion. Such a contradictory view did not surprise traders, because Praet is a supporter of soft policy, and his position on this issue is fairly consistent. In turn, the head of the Belgian Central Bank strengthened bearish sentiment on the pair, allowing the probability of shifting the timing of the completion of QE and raising the rate, "taking into account the latest macroeconomic indicators."

All this suggests that the European currency does not exist and in the near future will not have its own arguments for its recovery. The dollar, in turn, enjoys support from almost all sides: the key macroeconomic indicators are rising, treasury yields are kept at a high level, and the terms of monetary policy continue to be gradually tightened.

And here it would be possible to recommend with confidence the traders to open short positions on the EUR/USD pair if not for one "but". Today, Donald Trump will announce his decision on an agreement with Iran on the nuclear program. The US president will either prolong the "freeze" of sanctions or break the deal, resuming the sanctions. The consequences of the second option are difficult to foresee now: for example, the president of France did not exclude even the scenario of a military conflict. Therefore, if Trump still decides to take radical action, the dollar may be under strong pressure. Events will develop dynamically and unpredictably, which will cause strong volatility in the markets. Given this factor, it is recommended to make trading decisions after the announcement of the American verdict.

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From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD is in a downward price channel. On the daily chart, all the trend indicators indicate the development of the southern trend. The closest support level is the "round" mark of 1.1800. If the bears overcome this target, the price may drop to the next support level of 1.1705 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the weekly chart). If the dollar suddenly falls under a wave of sales, then long positions should be opened with the first target at 1.2040 (line Tenkan-sen on D1).The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Perseverance of the yen is rewarded

USD / JPY

The Japanese yen continued to struggle in order to grow with the rest of the markets. Undoubtedly, the Japanese currency succeeded. The symbolic growth yesterday in anticipation of the final statement of US President Donald Trump towards Iran today turned into a full-fledged offensive. Today, the Japanese index Nikkei225 is down to 0.38% with the mixed close of US indices yesterday. But other Asian indices showed growth, along with them the yen is growing up. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.06%, S & P / ASX200 0.19%, and IDX Composite 0.23%, this happened despite the fact that yesterday's household spending data showed a decrease in the March estimate of 0.1% (-0.2% YoY ). However, wage data for March showed an increase from 1.0% YoY to 2.1% YoY this morning.

Tomorrow, we expect a more significant improvement in the macroeconomic picture of Japan. The forecast for the balance of payments is 1.62 trillion yen against 1.02 trillion in February. The index of the current economic situation assessment of Eco Watchers for April is projected at 49.2 points versus 48.9 in March.

We are looking forward to the growth of the yen in the range of 110.85-111.10.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of May 9

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, we expect the movement towards correction after the breakdown of 1.1902. For the GBP / USD pair, we expect a correction after the breakdown of 1.3614. For the USD / CHF pair, the continuation to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 0.9976. For the USD / JPY pair, the level of 109.57 is the key support for the downward structure from May 2. For the EUR / JPY pair, the continuation of the main downward trend from April 24 is expected after the breakdown of 129.70. For the GBP / JPY pair, the continuation of the development of the main downward trend from April 26 is expected after the breakdown of 146.85. The movement to the top is considered as a correction.

The forecast for May 9:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.2013, 1.1987, 1.1936, 1.1902 and 1.1844. Here, we follow the downward structure from April 17 and at the moment, the price is near the limit values and we expect a correction. Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.1902 - 1.1936. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1987. The range of 1.1987 - 1.2013 is noise. Upon reaching this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle from April 17. We expect a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1902 Take profit: 1.1934

Buy 1.1938 Take profit: 1.1985

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: Take profit:

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3847, 1.3752, 1.3684, 1.3614, 1.3614 and 1.3482. Here, we expect a move towards correction. The movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 1.3614. In this case, the target is 1.3684. Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3684 - 1.3752. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement. Here, the target is 1.3847. Upon reaching this level, the formulation of potential initial conditions for the top is possible.

For the downward movement, we have not yet determined the subsequent goals.

The main trend is a downward structure from April 17. We expect a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3616 Take profit: 1.3682

Buy: 1.3684 Take profit: 1.3750

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: Take profit:

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels in the scale of H1 are: 1.0025, 0.9976, 0.9939, 0.9910, 0.9874 and 0.9854. Here, we follow the upward structure of April 10 and currently, we expect a correction. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.0025. The movement towards this level is expected after the breakdown of 0.9976.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.9939 - 0.9910. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9874. The range of 0.9874 - 0.9854 is noise.

The main trend is the upward structure from April 10. We expect a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9978 Take profit: 1.0025

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9939 Take profit: 0.9912

Sell: 0.9908 Take profit: 0.9876

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 109.96, 109.57, 109.35, 108.91, 108.70, 108.54, 108.17 and 107.88. Here, the price forms the initial conditions for the downward cycle from May 2. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 108.91. In this case, the target is 108.70. In the area of 108.70 - 108.54 is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of the level of 108.54 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 108.17. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 107.88. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 109.35 - 109.57. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of an upward structure. In this case, the target is 109.96.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle of May 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.60 Take profit: 109.92

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 108.90 Take profit: 108.72

Sell: 108.52 Take profit: 108.20

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3062, 1.3024, 1.3006, 1.2982, 1.2939, 1.2919 and 1.2887. Here, we continue to follow the upward structure of April 17. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 1.2982. In this case, the target is 1.3006. In the area of 1.3006 - 1.3024 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.3062. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.2939 - 1.2919. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2887. This level is the key support for the top of April 17.

The main trend is the upward structure of April 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2982 Take profit: 1.3006

Buy: 1.3026 Take profit: 1.3060

Sell: 1.2937 Take profit: 1.2922

Sell: 1.2915 Take profit: 1.2890

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key H1 scale levels are: 0.7514, 0.7483, 0.7463, 0.7424, 0.7402, 0.7334 and 0.7302. Here, we follow the local downward structure of May 4. Short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 0.7424 - 0.7402. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.7334. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 0.7302. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7463 - 0.7483. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7514. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is a local structure for the bottom of May 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7463 Take profit: 0.7480

Buy: 0.7485 Take profit: 0.7512

Sell: 0.7422 Take profit: 0.7405

Sell: 0.7400 Take profit: 0.7340

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For the of EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 131.64, 131.16, 130.62, 130.32, 129.70, 129.37, 128.91 and 128.62. Here, we follow the downward structure of April 24. Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 129.70 - 129.37. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 128.91. In the area of 128.91 - 128.62 is the consolidation of the price and from here, we expect a rollback into the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 130.32 - 130.62. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 131.16. This level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead to the formation an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 131.64.

The main trend is the downward structure of April 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.32 Take profit: 130.60

Buy: 130.66 Take profit: 131.16

Sell: 129.70 Take profit: 129.40

Sell: 129.33 Take profit: 128.95

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 149.81, 149.18, 148.67, 147.63, 146.88, 147.75 and 145.12. Here, we follow the local top-down structure on April 26. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 147.63. In this case, the target is 146.88. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 146.85 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 145.75. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 145.12. From this level, we expect a rollback towards correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 148.67 - 149.18. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 149.81.

The main trend is the local downward structure of April 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 148.67 Take profit: 149.15

Buy: 149.22 Take profit: 149.75

Sell: 147.60 Take profit: 146.95

Sell: 146.85 Take profit: 145.90

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The daily review of EUR / JPY pair on 08.05.18. Ichimoku Indicator

EUR / JPY pair

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Higher timeframes

The decline continues due to a slight breakout followed by another update of the daily candle minimum, while the bearish market sentiment remains. After fixing on the weekly cloud, the lower boundary of the weekly cloud and the monthly Fibo Kijun (126.84) will serve as a downward reference point in the higher time intervals.

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H4 - H1

Players to rise could not go beyond the most significant area of resistance zone (130.34 - 51). As a result, the advantage of the players to fall has been preserved, and by now, they have continued to decline. Currently, we are seeing a downtrend in its active phase. The closest benchmark for the decline and the main task for players to fall in the current situation is to update the minimum extremum (128.92) and restore the weekly downtrend. The most important zone of resistance is the area of 130.34 - 51 and the intermediate level today can be noted at the resistance level of 129.80 - 130 (Tenkan N4 + cross N1).

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The daily review of GBP / JPY pair on 08.05.18. Ichimoku Indicator

GBP / JPY pair

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Higher timeframes

Over the past 24 hours, the situation did not change significantly, the conclusions and expectations voiced yesterday remained the same. It is now important for the players on the fall to gain a foothold in the week-long cloud the current Senkou Span A 146.72 + next week 147.66). This will allow them to consider further prospects with their next task of reducing the weekly cloud to the lower boundary area and the monthly downward correction to the next support (monthly Kijun 144.46). Longer reflections and weakness of the bears can now lead to a retest of the passed levels - 148.44 (daytime Senkou Span A) - 148.92 (monthly levels) - 149.87 (daylight Tenkan).

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H4-H1

As expected, the breakdown of support level at 147.65 and the renewal of the minimum extremum at 147.04 may trigger a new stage of decline. The next support, which may become intermediate, should be noted now at 146.72. The key resistance has been retained today as its location are 148.44 - 148.94 - 149.40 - 149.87. A reliable fastening above 148.44 changes the balance of low-jumping forces while the first ascending goal forms (the goal is to break the H1 cloud). Further bullish advantages and moods will only increase. The daily upward correction will develop while its significant reference point will be the daily short-term trend (149.87).

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning Forecast 05/09/2018

Burning Forecast 05/09/2018

EURUSD: We are waiting for growth.

On Tuesday, Trump announced the withdrawal of the US from the "nuclear deal" agreement with Iran. This is a step towards a war with Iran. In the short term, the growth of the dollar should stop.

Perhaps the market is waiting for data on inflation in the US on Thursday.

We buy the euro at the break of 1.1940 upwards, stop at 1.1895, profit 1.2040.

There is no level for entry down.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USDX for May 9, 2018

The dollar index continues its up trend higher without any significant pullback. The index is clearly making another bearish divergence, increasing the chances for a big reversal soon. As said at the start of the week, I expect the dollar index to top and reverse this week. I continue to believe so, expecting at least a pullback towards 92.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Blue downward sloping line - bearish divergence

The dollar index is trading inside a bullish channel, making higher highs and higher lows. The new highs are not confirmed by the RSI which is diverging. Support is found at 93 and next at 92.35. So, bears will first need to break below 93 in order to get reversal signs. I'm bearish on the index.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of gold for May 9, 2018

Gold price remains below the short-term resistance of $1,320 and above the short-term support and reversal area of $1,300. At current levels I'm bullish on gold. The downside is limited. A break above $1,319 will be the first bullish reversal confirmation.

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Red line - horizontal support

The price bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement. The short-term resistance at $1,319-20 must be broken for the bigger bounce we expect to start. Until then we are in danger of making a new lower low towards $1,295. As said above, downside is limited and I'm a buyer of gold at current levels and lower for at least a move towards $1,330.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 09/05/2018

According to the US financial media, the owner of the New York NYSE Exchange, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), reflects the possibility of trading Bitcoin on its platform. This move will indicate that there is the second giant on Wall Street in the last week, which is interested in opening the platform for trading cryptocurrencies.

This news appeared a few days after the publication quoted by Goldman Sachs, which seemed to confirm that the bank will debut on the futures market on Bitcoin in a few weeks. ICE talked to other financial institutions about the start of a new operation through which banks will be able to buy contracts. If the move continues, ICE and Goldman will join an ever-larger piece of traditional financing involving cryptocurrencies. Another new player is now NASDAQ, which announced that it will be open to setting up a trading platform for cryptocurrencies in the future.

This news further contrasts with the conflicting prospects of major investors that are currently on the front page of newspapers - for example, Berkshire Hathaway's CEO -Warren Buffett - who compared Bitcoin to rat poison this week. The increasing interest of the US exchanges in traidng Bitcoin is very good news for all cryptocurrency enthusiasts and traders as it will likely increase the market capitalisation and general market liquidity. Moreover, it means the financial elites are much more aware of the fact, that the cryptocurrency market is now too large to be ignored.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still developing the corrective decline to the downside and currently is testing the short-term trendline support around the level of $8,989. The slide down might be just the first part of the corrective cycle (wave (a)), so there are at least three waves needed to complete the cycle. In a case of a further downside extension, the next technical support is seen at the level of $8,777 and $8,608.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 09/05/2018

The night after Trump's announcement of the unilateral withdrawal of the US from a nuclear agreement with Iran does not bring a fundamental variety of sentiment. This factor mainly dominated the crude oil market and indirectly influences others, i.e. it does not lead to an increase in risk aversion, which, for example, would strengthen the yen. However, it influences the increase in inflation expectations, which strengthens the dollar against the Japanese currency. The WTI rate erased all of yesterday's breakdown and is close to Monday's long-term high of USD 70.70. In the currency market, the dollar remains strong and the stock market has not taken a clear direction.

The EUR/USD pair is on this year's lows around 1.1850. The sale of AUD, which is the weakest to the dollar for almost a year, continues. AUD/USD hit a bottom around 0.7425. Oil rebound allows you to make up some of the losses by CAD. USD/CAD is 50 pips away from yesterdays highs almost at 1.30. USD/JPY is currently the most violate pair and is growing above 109.50 to the top of the month. GBP/USD remains close to this year's lows around 1.35. The profitability of the American 10-year bonds is pushed out by the growing crude oil and is again flirting with a ceiling of 3.0%

On Wednesday 9th of May, the event calendar is busy with the important data releases. The main event of the day is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and rate statement. But before that, the market participants should keep an eye on French Industrial Production data, the Building Permits data form Canada, Producer Price Index, Wholesale Inventories and Crude Oil Inventories data from the US.

Crude Oil analysis for 09/05/2018:

On the commodity market, the focus is primarily on the return of Crude oil to the Monday highs that is the long-term maximum. The API report played a significant role in this. The market expected a modest increase in inventories, which, contrary to expectations, fell by 1.85 million barrels. What's more, the stocks of distillates have shrunk the most in over a dozen years, as many as over 6.6 million barrels and gasoline inventories have fallen by more than 2 million barrels. Today there is another data release that might affect the price of Crude Oil - the stockpiles of US producers that are expected to grow to the level of 6218k barrels. Any number lower than this will make the oil to rally even higher above the level of 70.82. The immediate support is seen at the level of 69.56, but the key technical support remains at the level of 66.86. As long as this level is not violated, the outlook remains bullish. The next target for the price is seen at the level of 76.95 (61% Fibo of the previous swing down at the weekly timeframe chart).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of EUR/JPY for May 9, 2018

EUR/JPY has been impulsive and non-volatile with the bearish gains since it bounced off 133.00 resistance area recently. JPY has been quite strong with the gains while EUR was struggling with the mixed economic reports.

Despite the mixed economic reports today, JPY lost some grounds against EUR. Today Japan's Average Cash Earnings report was published with an increase to 2.1% from the previous value of 1.0% which was expected to be at 1.1%. Besides, the Leading Indicators report was published with a decrease to 105.0% from the previous value of 106.0% which was expected to be at 105.2%. Though the slightest decrease was observed in the Leading Indicators report, a sudden fall of the Japanese currency against the euro injected some volatility and indecision in the market today.

On the other hand, today the French Industrial Production report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 1.2% and the Italian Retail Sales is also expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.4%.

As of the current scenario, EUR has been forecasted to have worse outcome whereas JPY has been quite positive with the economic reports today. If EUR manages to provide better than expected results on the upcoming economic reports, then certain bullish pressure may be observed along the way which might lead to short-term upward momentum in the pair as the long-term trend is still bearish in nature. To sum up, EUR is expected to gain short-term momentum over JPY in the coming days before JPY continues its bearish trend in future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 129.50 after having an impulsive bearish trend for the last few days. The price is being held by the 129.50 support area which has been quite successful to push the price higher in the earlier days so there are certain chances of the price to push back higher towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA before sliding lower below 129.50 in the coming days. As the price remains below 133.00 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of Silver for May 08, 2018

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Overview

Silver price did not show any strong move in the previous sessions. The price is still fluctuating around 16.56 level. Thus, the sideways scenario remains valid until the price manages to breach any of its borders, represented by 16.15 support and 16.80 resistance. Please note that the details of the expected targets after breaching the borders are explained in our previous report. The expected trading range for today is between 16.30 support and 16.70 resistance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for May 8, 2018

Bitcoin is currently residing at the edge of $9,000 price area after an impulsive bearish pressure today as expected. The price has been in a bearish momentum since it bounced off the $10,000 price area after being under non-volatile bullish pressure since it broke above $6,500 with a daily close. Though not only Bitcoin but all cryptocurrencies have fallen in value since the start of the week that is currently speculated as a form of retracement before pushing higher in the future. The bullish sentiment is quite strong now. BTC is expected to wait in the support area of $9,000 to start pushing the price higher, aiming to break above $10,000 price area and approach $11,500 in the future. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to consolidate above $8,500 area. With certain bearish rejections along the way with confluence to the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line, the price is expected to show further bullish pressure in the coming days.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com