GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 29. COT reports. Pound rose due to Brexit rumors, but could also quickly

To open long positions in GBP/USD, you need:

The pound sharply grew yesterday morning, due to rumors that the UK and the EU might reach a compromise on the trade deal, however, it was difficult to enter the market, since there were no convenient entry points. It was only possible to observe active development of the situation in the afternoon, at the 1.2863 level which we will now talk about. I recommended opening long positions from this level in the event of a decline and a false breakout there, which happened. On the 5-minute chart, we can see how the bulls defended support at 1.2863 with all their might, making several active attempts to resume the pound's growth, but they gave up and retreated from the market on the third test, thereby forming a new signal to sell the pound. A reverse test of the 1.2863 area is a good short entry point, bringing in about 40 points in profit.

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The situation has completely changed at the moment. Buyers will wait for a breakout and settle above the resistance of 1.2885, which will form a new signal to enter long positions with the main goal of updating a new high for this week in the 1.2962 area, which is where I recommend taking profits. The 1.3089 area will be a distant goal, and this is a very difficult target to achieve. In case the pound falls, forming a false breakout at the 1.2834 level will be a signal to open long positions. In case bulls are not active in this range, it is better to postpone longs until a larger low of 1.2766 has been updated, slightly above which the moving averages pass, playing on the side of the bulls. It is also possible to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the monthly low of 1.2689, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 22 did not record significant changes in the market, as everyone took a wait-and-see attitude and are watching how the economy will react to the next phase of growth in the incidence of COVID-19 and how the situation will develop further. Brexit. Most likely, the pressure on the pound will gradually return as the second wave of coronavirus spreads and the negotiations on a trade deal between the UK and the EU become more complicated, where there is not even a hint of a compromise between the parties. Short non-commercial positions slightly decreased from 41,508 to 40,523 during the reporting week. Long non-commercial positions also decreased from 43,801 to 43,487. As a result, the non-commercial net position remained practically unchanged at 2,964 against 2,293 weeks earlier.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers can quickly regain control of the market if yesterday's rumors and conversations are not reinforced. To do this, we need a breakout and have to settle below support at 1.2834. Testing this level on the reverse side forms a good entry point for short positions, which will quickly extinguish buyers' optimism and lead to an update of the first support level of 1.2766, which is where I recommend taking profits. The 1.2689 area will be a distant goal, testing it will mean the resumption of the bearish trend for the pound. If GBP/USD continues to grow, and this cannot be ruled out in the current conditions, then it is best not to rush to sell, but wait for a false breakout to appear in the resistance area of 1.2885. Selling the pair immediately on a rebound is only possible when the weekly high is updated in the 1.2962 area, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of a continuation of the upward correction for the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2810 area will lead to a new wave of decline for the pound. The breakout of the upper border in the 1.2890 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 29. COT reports. Buyers of the euro looking forward to an upward correction

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday afternoon, the signal to buy the euro worked perfectly after a breakout and consolidating above the 1.1640 level, which I drew attention to in my forecast and is also where I recommended opening long positions. If you look at the 5 minute chart, you will see how the bulls achieved a breakout and settled above the 1.1640 level, afterwards the euro continued to rise. And even if you did not have time to enter buy deals on the first signal, after declining and testing the 1.1640 area for the second time, it was also possible to open long positions in anticipation of a new wave of EUR/USD growth, which happened.

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At the moment, the technical picture has not changed much compared to the previous day, and the main task of the bulls is a breakout and to settle above last Friday's high (1.1688). Afterwards, you can open new long positions in order to continue the upward correction and move towards the 1.1734 area, which is where I recommend taking profits. A breakout and consolidation above 1.1688 can also lead to removing sellers' stop orders, as was the case with the British pound yesterday, which will strengthen the upward correction in the pair. In case EUR/USD falls in the first half of the day, returning and testing 1.1640 while the price is staying above this level will also be a signal to buy the euro. If bulls are not active in this area, then it is best to postpone long positions in EUR/USD and wait until lows of 1.1585 and 1.1541 have been updated, from where you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on a 20-30 point correction within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 22 showed that both long and short positions increased, but there were more of the first ones than the latter, which led to an increase in the delta. Apparently, buyers are attracted to such a low euro rate for the first time in three months, even despite the risk of a second wave of coronavirus infection across Europe. Thus, long non-commercial positions increased from 230,695 to 247,049, while short non-commercial positions only increased from 52,199 to the level of 56,227. The total non-commercial net position also increased over the reporting week to 190,822, against 178,576 a week earlier, which indicates bullish market sentiment in the medium term. The more the euro falls against the US dollar, the more attractive it will be for new investors.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers need to rehabilitate, and this can only be done by defending the resistance at 1.1688. Forming a false breakout at this level, along with the release of weak fundamental data on the indicator of consumer confidence in the eurozone, as well as inflation in Germany - all this forms a good entry point to short positions in the hopes of pulling down the rate to a significant support at 1.1640, which might shed light on the pair's direction. Returning to this level, followed by testing it from the bottom up, produces an additional entry point to short positions while counting on the bearish trend to continue, which will open up a direct prospect for the euro to fall to the area of lows of 1.1585 and 1.1541, which is where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls turn out to be stronger and continue the upward correction in the pair, and this will only happen in case of a breakout of 1.1688, then there is no need to rush to sell. It is likely that rumors of a UK-EU trade agreement will continue to provide temporary support to the pair. Selling in such a scenario is best done once the 1.1734 high has been updated, counting on a 20-30 point correction within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the possibility of an upward correction in euros.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1645 area will lead to a new wave of decline for the euro. A breakout of the upper border at 1.1688 will lead to an increase in the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/29/20

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The EUR/USD pair, moving along a downward course, found a pivot point around the level of 1.1615, where it slowed down and formed the first correction in six trading days. It can be seen that the high of the corrective move coincides with the area of pullback/stagnation on September 25 - 1.1680 (+/- 10 points), which in theory, could become a variable resistance.

Based on the obtained data on the quote, we can assume that the price correction will end soon, where the role of resistance will be played by one of the two possible coordinates – 1.1680 or 1.1710, where regular price stops were seen in history.

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On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair managed to show activity, breaking the upper limit of 1.2900 after a three-day fluctuation in the range of 1.2674/1.2770. It should be noted that the market has been in a downward direction since the beginning of September, where the current activity is a corrective movement that will be used by sellers later to resume the original direction.

Based on the data obtained on the quotes, we can assume that there will be a decline if the price is consolidated below 1.2825, which will return the quote to the level of 1.2770. This will signal the continuation of the downward trend.

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US election fever: battling for the future of the dollar. Overview of USD, CAD, JPY

The pre-election fever in the US is still the major factor of uncertainty that does not allow us to build long-term forecasts. The main unstable factor is the position of both candidates, who made it clear that they would not recognize the election results if they were not in their favor. As a result, the confrontation between Republicans and Democrats will be further developed in Congress and the Supreme Court.

If Trump is trying to establish a Republican lead on the Supreme Court by introducing conservative Amy Barnett as his nominee, then in turn, the Democrats are preparing to take over both houses of Congress. Thus, the VIX index is growing.

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If Biden wins, markets view the possibility of large-scale QE and the resulting weakening of the dollar as high, but his tax policy raises big questions. In turn, Trump's victory may lead to a deep correction of the stock market, since its growth will no longer be politically necessary, and the strengthening of the dollar.

This morning, the dollar looks slightly stronger than its competitors in the short term. There is also a slight rise in demand for risk, which will give an advantage to commodity currencies.

USD/CAD

Despite some growth in risk interest, the Canadian dollar did not benefit from this growth and was among the outsiders. It has no internal driver and remains hostage to the general market situation.

On the other hand, oil continues to consolidate near the level of $ 40 per barrel (for WTI). There is no support from the domestic macroeconomic data, both due to the lack of significant news, and due to the lack of positivity even in the data that was published.

The estimated fair price is inclined upwards which is not surprising – in the reporting week, the net short position of the CAD increased by another 134 million, reaching 1.419 billion. This is not a very strong advantage, but it reflects the trend well. There are no primary reasons for the growth of the Canadian currency without clear signs of a recovery in the US economy and in world trade.

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Technically, the USD/CAD pair was unable to break through the upper limit of the 1.3415 channel on the first attempt, but another attempt should be expected soon. The nearest base is 1.3340/60, which is the middle of the bullish channel. There is no technical reason to make a correction below, so growth is expected to resume with the nearest goal at 1.3450.

USD/JPY

The threat of deflation and the weak pace of industrial recovery associated with a slowdown in external demand remain key challenges for both the Japanese economy and the country's financial authorities, who need to look for new ways to stimulate, even though the traditional ones have already been exhausted.

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This morning, Tokyo's inflation data was released. The annual CPI slowed to 0.2%, against the forecasted 0.4%, and if we exclude food and electricity prices, inflation slowed to zero. Moreover, the consumer demand is declining, and there is no way to start reducing the budget deficit without its growth.

At the same time, JPY net long position rose by 810 million, reaching 3.524 billion. This is a clear advantage, which allows us to conclude that large speculators see the risks of strengthening the yen. The estimated price is below the long-term average and directed below, which confirms this conclusion.

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The dollar's growth last week should be considered corrective. A downward turn may begin in the area of the nearest resistance zone of 105.70/80, or if the demand for risk will dominate for some time, then from the 106.50/60 zone.

Today, the Central Bank of Japan will publish a brief summary of the Bank members' personal opinions following the meeting on September 16-17. It is important to see in the discussion whether the issue of expanding stimulus measures was discussed. If the minutes does not contain such instructions, then the chances of continued corrective growth in USD/JPY will be lowered and you will need to look for an opportunity to sell.

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on 09/29/2020

The pound was suddenly able to strengthen its positions, and showed good growth. And it happened against a completely empty information background. Apparently, this is what caused the pound to rise. First of all, the pound has depreciated quite noticeably from the very beginning of September, and from a technical point of view, a slight correction was necessary. Secondly, after the UK government tightened its anti-epidemiological measures last week, investors feared that they would only intensify. But after a few days of silence, nothing happened. So the tension eased somewhat. As a result, this calm became a positive factor that contributes to the pound's growth.

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The pound may receive support from today's release of the UK lending market report, the forecasts for which are very good. Thus, approximately 69,000 mortgage loans may be approved, against 66,300 in the previous month. The volume of mortgage lending is expected to grow by 3.0 billion pounds, and consumer loans by another 1.5 billion pounds. The growth in lending indicates an increase in consumer activity, which will spur economic recovery.

Number of approved mortgages (UK):

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The GBPUSD pair has shown high activity after a long process of focusing below the 1.2770 benchmark. A technical correction is what we have in the market, considering the overall scale of the decline since the beginning of September and price taking at new price levels.

If we proceed from the quote's current location, we can see a surge in long positions, which brought the pound back to the 1.2885 area; this was classified as a mirror level in the previous period.

Volatility is accelerating, which indicates a high activity of speculators.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, one can see a large-scale decline since the beginning of September, by more than 800 points, which in theory can lead to a change in the medium-term trend.

We can assume that the price may temporarily fluctuate in the upper part of the correctional range of 1.2825/1.2900, and in order to bring back interest in the downward move, the quote must settle below 1.2820, in the direction of 1.2770-1.2700.

From the point of view of a complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hour periods signal a buy due to a technical correction. The day period, as before, signals a sell, due to a change in the medium-term scale.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 29, 2020

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Overview :

The USD/JPY (US dollar/Japanese yen) pair is one of the most traded currency pairs for that it is known for its high liquidity, something it gets from the fact that the yen is the most heavily traded currency in Asia.

It remains bullish looking to buy on inclines above the level of 105.06 support for a further push up to at least 105.71 resistance.

A bullish channel is perfectly clear, so it continues bullish for a further rise from the support levels of 104.86 and 105.06.

The USD/JPY pair is finally starting to go ahead up nicely and a bullish exit has moved further strength for a push up. It keeps bullish looking to buy above major support level at 105.06 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement, golden ratio).

The USD/JPY pair continued moving upwards from the level of 105.06 Today, the first support level is seen at 105.06 followed by 104.86, while daily resistance is seen at 105.71.

According to the previous events, the USD/JPY pair will be probably trading between the levels of 105.00 and 105.25. This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs.

Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 105.71, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (106.25) to test it.

Otherwise, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 104.86, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the second support of 104.66.

Forecast :

  • Buy (long position) above the price of 105.06.
  • Target 1 : Take profit at 105.90.
  • Target 2 : Take profit at 106.25.
  • Stop loss at 104.50.
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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 29, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

A new study by cryptocurrency mining company Genesis Mining suggests that most US citizens are against the introduction of a central bank digital currency. A Genesis Mining study found that of the 400 participants, less than 25% agreed with the proposal that the government should ditch paper money in favor of the digital dollar, while more than half were against it.

However, the number of CBDC supporters almost doubled in 12 months, with only 13% of respondents in favor of the digital dollar when this question was asked in 2019.

While more than 85% of survey respondents expressed knowledge of crypto assets, many associate virtual currencies with criminal activity, possibly contributing to weak support for CBDC.

The report also found poor understanding of monetary policy among the general public, finding that 38% of respondents believe the US dollar is backed by gold, bonds or oil, and an additional 13% simply do not know. Despite the lack of interest in monetary policy, 88% of respondents indicated inflation as critical.

In August, the Bank of Canada released a study that found that financial literate respondents were half as likely to own cryptocurrencies than the general public.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair rally had been terminated at the minor supply zone located between the levels of $10,890 - $10,940 and the market reversed. Moreover, the price has broken the short-term trend line support around the level of $10,700 and made a local low at the level of $10,597 already. The momentum remains neutral, but it the bearish pressure intensify, the sell-off might continue towards the level of $10,586 and $10,430.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,934

WR2 - $11,451

WR1 - $11,105

Weekly Pivot - $10,558

WS1 - $10,238

WS2 -$9,737

WS3 - $9,392

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 29, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

On September 24, the Binance exchange officially announced on the Russian Telegram channel that the Russian telecommunications regulator Roskomnadzor had added this page to the register of platforms disseminating prohibited information.

According to the announcement, the Binance exchange was included in the list due to the distribution of data related to the acquisition of digital currencies such as Bitcoin. Gleb Kostarev, head of Binance's operations in Russia, said the exchange announced the news immediately after receiving the notification from Roskomnadzor.

Despite putting the domain on the list of banned websites, Russians can still access it without any additional tools like a VPN. Currently, the URL can be found in the official website registry in the blacklist of Roskomnadzor. According to the data, the site was added to the list on June 2, 2020, and access to it is "not restricted".

In a public announcement, Binance executives stressed that it had not received any information about the restriction until September 24, stating:

"Before receiving the above notification, we were not previously informed of any claims from law enforcement agencies, civil services or courts. We have now turned to our solicitors for further advice and would like to assure all our Russian users that their services will not be interrupted in the meantime and their funds are safe. "

As the Binance website was blacklisted by Roskomnadzor in June 2020, this action does not appear to be related to Binance's plans to introduce its cryptocurrency debit card in Russia as the plans were announced a little later in September 2020.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/UD pair has made a Shooting Star candlestick pattern at the to of the move up at the level of $367.58, just above the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at $362.93. Since then, the market has reversed and fell out of the ascending channel around the level of $355. The local low was made at the level of $350.14, but the target for bears is seen at the level of $345.40. The momentum had reversed as well and now is on the neutral level, pointing south. If the level of $345.40 is clearly violated, then the next technical support is seen at the level of $332.38.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $446.64

WR2 - $410.95

WR1 - $384.24

Weekly Pivot - $347.99

WS1 - $319.88

WS2 -$284.46

WS3 - $256.92

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 29, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair continues the bounce after the low at the level of 1.1612 had been established. Due to the oversold market conditions traders should expect a bounce towards the level of 1.1696, where rally should be terminated anyway. Bears are in control of the market and more lower lows should be seen soon. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1569 - 1.1569 zone. Only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.1738 would put bulls back into control again. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2011

WR2 - 1.1939

WR1 - 1.1752

Weekly Pivot - 1.1683

WS1 - 1.1498

WS2 - 1.1408

WS3 - 1,1239

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Adoption of new incentives proposed by the Democrats will contribute significantly to the USD in the near future

The currency market almost froze in anticipation of the publication of important economic data this week, as well as remaining influenced by the speeches of important European officials and Fed's representatives.

First of all, the values for the number of new jobs that the US economy received this month will certainly be considered. It should be noted that there will be data on employment in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy on Friday. If they turn out to be weaker again than the expected growth of 850,000, then the market could plunge into depression and the USD will be in demand again as a safe-haven currency.

In addition to this data, production figures from China, Europe and the USA will be published. Traders, in turn, will closely monitor the updated figures of the US GDP for the second quarter. But of course, we will continue to pay attention to voting on the project to help the US economy, proposed by the Democratic wing of Congress. This event is clearly more important than all the others, including the publication of statistics from America or the speeches of Fed members, who are coming out with their comments almost every day.

This importance is due to the fact that the decision to take a huge amount of $ 2.4 trillion in aid measures, which is what the Democrats are proposing, will have a local strong impact, at least on US consumer activity, which can push up the overall economic activity in the country and stimulate the growth of new jobs. In these circumstances, investors will view this news as directly positive, which will stimulate demand for risky assets and put strong downward pressure on the US currency.

Due to this, there is an extremely low activity in the currency market in pairs where the US dollar is present. The situation around the new aid measures is also not so specific. Earlier, Republicans proposed their 800 billion program, but Democrats blocked it in Congress. The same thing can happen now, but only in the part of the Republicans, which clearly fits into the current behavior of the conflicting parties in the US in the conditions of the election campaign for the presidency.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is likely to be trading in the range of 1.1615-1.1685. If the upper limit breaks down, it will lead it to rise to 1.1720.

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating below 1.2880 and may also remain in the range of 1.2680-1.2880 for some time amid the uncertainty about the Brexit consequences. Only the breakdown of the last value on the wave of new weakness of the USD can lead the pair up to 1.2970.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 29, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broke through the supply zone located between the levels of 1.2747 - 1.2869 and made a new local high at the level of 1.2926. The momentum is strong and positive, but the market is no about to enter the overbought zone, so the level of 1.2926 might be a top of the bounce. Only a sustained move above the level of 1.3000 would put the bulls back in control over the market. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3187

WR2 - 1.3072

WR1 - 1.2894

Weekly Pivot - 1.2783

WS1 - 1.2601

WS2 - 1.2494

WS3 - 1.2312

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 29? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continued a slight upward correction last Monday night. Therefore, we continue to wait until it's completed and a sell signal from the MACD indicator to appear, which we recommend for novice traders. However, a paradoxical situation has now occurred with the MACD indicator. The correction was delayed and the indicator went far up from the zero level, to which we advised you to wait until the indicator eases. So now the indicator can produce a false sell signal, since it needs to be discharged in the opposite direction. If the upward movement continues and is still weak, then the indicator is very likely to discharge. So far, we see that the price is near the local high of 1.1684, but the indicator is already trying to turn to the downside. Therefore, we advise you to be careful when opening short deals today. The descending channel remains relevant, and the quotes of the EUR/USD pair are now trading neatly in the middle of it.

The fundamental backdrop for the US currency remains complex. Much more difficult than for the euro. That is why we believe that it is much more likely for the dollar to fall (that is, an increase in the EUR/USD pair) than the euro. However, firstly, the price is still trading in a descending channel, and secondly, the situation in the eurozone is starting to deteriorate at this time. This applies primarily to the coronavirus. Everyone is used to the fact that around 40-45,000 people in America fall ill. They got so used to it that neither the country's chief epidemiologist, Anthony Fauci, nor the country's president, Donald Trump, touch on this topic. One gets the impression that everything is fine. Second waves have already begun in some countries in Europe, and potentially they can start everywhere. So far, the largest increase in diseases is observed in Spain and France. For example, Italy, which also suffered greatly in the first wave, keeps its incidence rates at the level of 1-2,000 per day. Potentially, the second wave in Europe could deal another blow to the European economy, which, naturally, is not good for the common currency. However, the euro's decline isn't necessarily such a big problem right now. The greatest concern in the eurozone right now is the inflation rate, which has gone below 0% in Germany and the EU as a whole. Prices are currently falling compared to the previous year. And this is really a problem, since there will be no economic growth without inflation.

Possible scenarios for September 29:

1) Novice traders are advised to not consider buy positions at this time, as there is a clear downward trend, and trading against the trend is not recommended. Therefore, you can consider long positions when the price has settled above the downward trend channel or when a new upward trend appears, supported by a trend line or another channel.

2) Short deals remain relevant, however, an upward correction is still present at this time. Thus, you are advised to wait until the MACD indicator reverses to the downside and then you can open short positions and aim for 1.1627 and 1.1588. In theory, the correction could continue to the highest line of the descending channel. This option also cannot be completely ruled out. Therefore, do not forget about placing Stop Loss orders.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD. US dollar stays subdued as Democrats propose unsustainable bill

As expected, the support level of 0.7000 was too strong for the AUD/USD bears. Despite a short decline in price, the general strengthening of the American currency and the decline in the price of iron ore, the Australian dollar managed to withstand the bearish momentum and held near the key target. By the way, the AUD/USD bulls were trying to break through the 0.7000 mark for two months this summer when it served as a resistance level. At the moment, the situation is just the other way round. The bears failed to break through the area of 69. After reaching the level of 0.7007, the price reversed and headed to the upside.

The price was mainly driven by two factors. First, the US dollar's rise has slowed down. The US dollar index is stuck in the range of 94.1-94.5, waiting for additional drivers that would strengthen the greenback's position. However, the US dollar entered a flat channel amid a lack of such drivers. As a result, many currency pairs developed a correction. Secondly, as mentioned above, the bears need a strong driver to break through the 0.7000 mark. Besides, the price needs to break through the key level of support and consolidate below it. However, at the moment nothing in the fundamental background can cause such price movements.

Notably, the AUD/USD pair's trajectory is mainly determined by the American currency. The Australian dollar is almost never a leading currency in this pair. The pair only reacts to major macroeconomic releases from Australia and to political statements or decisions related to the protracted conflict between Canberra and Beijing. The aussie also reacts to the news regarding the coronavirus rate in Australia in the context of strengthening or weakening the restrictive lockdown measures in the country. In general, however, the US dollar sets the tone for trading. For example, buyers of AUD/USD were able to overcome the 0.7000 mark later this summer only due to the overall depreciation of the greenback. All other events such as the RBA's wait-and-see attitude, improvement in the Australian labor market, and the rise in inflation rate served as minor supportive factors.

Therefore, at the moment, the prospects for the AUD/USD downtrend will primarily depend on the greenback's trajectory. Moreover, this week, the economic calendar is almost empty for the Australian currency as all major releases were published in early September.

The US currency has actually come to a halt amid conflicting fundamental signals. For instance, last week the US House of Representatives approved a stimulus bill that helped avoid the shutdown. This fact made it possible to assume that congressmen will be able to find a common ground on additional incentives. Against this background, the US dollar was actively extending gains and tested multi-month highs. The US dollar index was last seen at such levels in late July. Moreover, US Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin said that the White House is consulting with congressmen to come up with a bipartisan bill that will be supported by both Democrats and Republicans in both houses of Congress.

However, at the end of last week, Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow said that the American economy does not need another emergency stimulus package. In his opinion, targeted measures are still useful, but there is no need for another massive multi-trillion dollar package. Following this statement, the US dollar stopped rising yesterday. Market participants became doubtful that the parties would reach a compromise in the near future, at least before the presidential elections.

This skeptical mood among traders has intensified this week. Yesterday, the House of Representatives unveiled a draft law which ensures additional financial aid to American businesses and citizens during the pandemic in the amount of $2.2 trillion. Democratic lawmakers, who control the majority in the Lower House of Congress, proposed this bill. The new coronavirus relief package is $1.2 trillion less than the previous proposal. Apparently, this bill may face the same situation: it will certainly be passed in the House of Representatives, but it will most likely be rejected by the Senate the majority of which are Republicans. Republicans believe that the amount of the new stimulus package is way too much. Moreover, Trump warned several months ago that if the multi-trillion-dollar bill is still passed, he will use the presidential veto, blocking its signing. In turn, representatives of the Democratic Party in early September rejected the legislative proposal of Republicans. They believe that the $300 billion bill is scanty and not enough to serve as a comprehensive aid.

Thus, last week, traders still hoped that negotiations between Republicans and Democrats will have a positive outcome. The US Treasury Secretary fueled these hopes and sparked a high interest in the US currency. However, this week it became clear that the parties are still stand their ground. Democrats introduced a bill worth $2.2 trillion, while the White House says that the "giant" aid package is not needed. Against this controversial background, the US dollar suspended its uptrend and paused in anticipation of the next information drivers.

Given the current fundamental picture and a strong support level at 0.7000, we can assume that the AUD/USD pair will continue its upward correction. Long positions in the medium term should be set with the target at 0.7150. This is the upper boundary of the Kumo Cloud which coincides with the Tenkan-Sen line on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 29 , 2020

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GBP/JPY gained upside momentum and rallied higher to test key-resistance at 136.52. This resistance will likely be able to cap the upside temporary for a corrective set-back to 135.36 before the next push higher towards 138.31. In the long term, we are looking for a rally in wave iii/ to above the former peak at 142.02.

Support is now seen at 135.52 and then at 134.63, which ideally will protect the downside for renewed upside pressure.

R3: 137.15

R2: 136.52

R1: 135.80

Pivot: 135.36

S1: 134.90

S2: 134.63

S3: 134.32

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 133.51 and we will move our stop higher to 133.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 29, 2020

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EUR/JPY failed to reach our ideal target at 122.15, but stopped at 122.34 and turned higher through short-term key resistance at 122.90 indicating that wave 2/ already had completed and wave 3/ higher now is in motion.

Short-term, we expect the former resistance-area between 123.38 - 123.43 to cap the upside for a minor correction back to 122.69 and then higher again as the new uptrend gains momentum.

R3: 123.94

R2: 123.64

R1: 123.43

Pivot: 123.07

S1: 122.93

S2: 122.69

S3: 122.34

Trading recommendation:

We took profit on our short-position from 123.90 at 122.95 and at the same time revers our short-position to a new long EUR-position. We have placed our stop at 122.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Libya to destroy global oil market

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The civil war in Libya was caused by political issues and issues concerning energy resources. As a rule, whoever has access and control over oil fields automatically has power. Thus, commander of the Libyan National Army Khalifa Haftar captured the eastern provinces, where the main oil deposits, refineries, and seaports are located. From this place energy resources are shipped to Europe. Oil exports make the country's main income.

Tripoli's Government of National Accord considers Haftar's actions illegal and calls on international business to abandon contacts with the LNA. Sanctions were imposed against the commander prohibiting dealing with him. However, this has not stopped foreign oil and gas companies.

For example, France's Total, Italy's ENI and Libya's National Oil and Gas Corporation did not stop their work even during the period of fierce fighting in the country. The most interesting thing is that no one violated the sanctions. A cunning move was invented. All transactions were concluded on behalf of the GNA and oil was pumped from the eastern pipe. Haftar and his army received very good money for this.

This continued until the end of the last year. However, in January, Khalifa Haftar considered the distribution of income unfair and closed seaports. Europe stopped receiving oil, and Libya stopped receiving money. The people did not like it and began to protest against the government. People demanded to end the war and start rebuilding the country.

In the summer, the GNA announced the suspension of military operations against the Haftar army and demanded the resumption of oil exports to Europe. The parties came to a compromise: the Commander promised to ensure the pumping of raw materials. Moreover, the government representative in Tripoli agreed to a fairer distribution of income from selling of energy resources.

Thus, the National Petroleum Corporation confirmed that oil production was resumed at the Zalten, ar-Rakuda, and El-Lehib fields. The seaport of Marsa el Brega was also opened for the export of energy resources. Arabian Gulf Oil Co. will resume operations soon in the port of Tobruk.

However, OPEC + countries are not happy about this news. The group has been cutting production for several years to stabilize prices. The return of Libya will add around a million barrels per day to the market. This stands for 1.1 percent of global demand and is quite tangible for the quotes.

However, the agreements between Haftar and the Deputy Prime Minister of the PNC, Ahmed Maiteeq, were criticized by the authorities of both the east and the west. They believe that Haftar and Maiteeq do not have the authority to enter into such deals, as the army should not interfere in political affairs.

They also believe that oil revenues will be spent on the economic and not military needs. In this case, the situation in the country will improve. Libyans want changes.

Libyan political scientist Mustafa Fetouri believes that there are still few real improvements in the life of Libyans, as every significant figure is holding on to power. The country is undergoing a political process, but not everyone intends to voluntarily leave their post. Everyone wants to get as much as possible from the resumption of oil exports.

By the way, prices for WTI oil have already dropped below $40 per barrel.

Thus, November's WTI futures fell by 0.77% to settle at $39.94 per barrel. At the same time, November's futures for Brent crude declined by 0.64% to trade at $41.65 per barrel.

Oil prices are also slumping due to the coronavirus situation. The number of infected people is increasing every day. Moreover, seven million cases have been already confirmed in the United States and six million in India. Investors fear the second wave and, accordingly, quarantine, which will negatively affect the global economic recovery.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 29, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro slightly increased on Monday amid rising risk appetite in the stock market and ahead of the first debate of presidential candidates Trump and Biden on Wednesday. Technically, the growth was reflected in consolidation at the target level of 1.1650. The observed consolidation is likely to continue today. The price must settle below the 1.1650 level in order for a significant downward movement to appear. The first target is 1.1550 (November 2017 low).

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The price shows an intention to fall from the September 24 and 25 highs. It would be like forming a narrow consolidation, which in turn will act as a technical figure for the trend to continue, that is, a decline. The euro's consolidation growth may continue up to the MACD indicator line at 1.1712. We are waiting for the development of events, the main scenario is decreasing.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on September 29, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar added 40 points and entered the consolidation zone of 0.7065-0.7110 yesterday. It is possible for the price to move beyond it, but it will be limited, within the framework of our main scenario, by the MACD line at 0.7137, which coincides with the low on August 20. Setting the price below 0.7065 will be the aussie's second attempt to continue moving towards the first target of 0.6970.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is marking a downward reversal on the four-hour chart, and although this is not enough to keep the price within the 0.7065-0.7110 range, it is a sign. In any case, setting the price below the lower end of the range will be the primary condition for the price to continue falling in line with our main scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 29, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair traded in a 40-point range on Monday, closing the day with a 7-point decline, which formed a consolidation at the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is embedded into the zone of positive values, the price is ready to continue growing. The first target is 106.00 to match the Fibonacci level 100.0% with the MACD line. Next, we are waiting for the price on the inner line of the price channel of the higher (weekly) scale 106.40.

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The four-hour chart shows that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reverses from the border of the downward trend area. This pattern means the end of the consolidation, now we expect the price to reach the first target of 106.00 in 1-2 days.

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Setting the price under 105.12 will mean that the price would move according to an alternative scenario, the USD/JPY pair intends to go down to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 103.75.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 29. COT report. Pound surged, but how long will the buyers' fuse

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair began a stronger round of upward correction on September 28, having managed to overcome both the Kijun-sen line and the Senkou Span B line during the day proved to be correct. Now the upward movement may continue, although a downward correction is highly expected after such a strong growth. One way or another, the bears lost the initiative and now the bulls can take over. The outlook for the British pound looks rather ghostly now, but the US dollar is far from being alright.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, responding to the pair's strong growth on Monday.

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the British pound showed that non-commercial traders got rid of buying the pound and opened Sell-contracts (shorts). A group of commercial traders got rid of huge amounts of both longs and shorts of the pound. We then concluded that the pound sterling is now, in principle, not the most attractive currency for large traders. The new COT report showed absolutely minor changes for the "non-commercial" group. Buy-contracts (longs) fell by 2,000 while Sell-contracts decreased by 1,500. Thus, the net position for non-commercial traders remained practically unchanged for the reporting week (September 16-22). At this time, the British pound continued to fall, which can be considered a consequence of the previous reporting week, when the net position of non-commercial traders greatly decreased, by 11,500 contracts. No changes in the rate of the pound/dollar pair on the 23rd, 24th, 25th, which will be included in the next report. Thus, a long term decline in the pound's quotes is indeed questionable, although the pound is still the most unattractive currency in the foreign exchange market.

No major news, reports or events in the UK on Monday, September 28. Talks at the highest level between Brussels and London regarding the Brexit deal will begin today, but there is little hope of success. The parties have a maximum of a month to conclude it. Otherwise, even if they agree, they will not have time to ratify the agreement. This, of course, is not too much of a problem if the deal does not begin on January 1, but on February 1, for example. However, much more important is the lack of progress in the negotiations. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver another speech today. As always, the market's reaction will depend on what the head of the BoE says. In the past six months, there have been many rumors and conversations around the central bank's introduction of negative rates and the expansion of the QE program. Thus, the more speculations and hints at these steps, the more the pound sterling can potentially fall in price. Today, there will be an election debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the United States. Their results can change the balance of power between opponents five weeks before the elections themselves.

We have two trading ideas for September 29:

1) Buyers continued to push the pair upward and broke through the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines yesterday, and also reached the first resistance level of 1.2915. Thus, you are advised to open new long positions while aiming for the resistance level of 1.2915 and the resistance area of 1.3004 - 1.3024, if a rebound follows from the Senkou Span B line. Take Profit in this case will be from 50 to 150 points. The fundamental background at this time is simultaneously bad for both the pound and the dollar.

2) Sellers failed to keep the pair below the critical line. So now they need to wait for the price to settle below the Kijun-sen line (1.2800), and only after that should they resume trading down while aiming for the support area of 1.2636-1.2660. Take Profit in this case can be up to 110 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 29. COT report. Bulls have good prospects based on foundation and

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair began to correct and went to the critical Kijun-sen line, while remaining inside the descending channel on the hourly timeframe on September 28. Thus, the general trend for the pair has not changed; short positions are still relevant. If the pair remains below the Kijun-sen line or, after completing the correction, settles below this line, then movement to the downside is likely to resume. Buyers' prospects look very vague so far, as they have to overcome not only the Kijun-sen line, but also the resistance area of 1.1704-1.1728, the Senkou Span B line and the upper line of the descending channel. However, since the prospects for the US dollar remain even more obscure, this option has a not so low likelihood of execution.

EUR/USD 15M

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The lower linear regression channel turned to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, also indicating the beginning of a correctional movement. The euro/dollar fell by about one and a half cents last reporting week (September 16-22). Recall that the previous Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that the "non-commercial" group of traders, which we have repeatedly called the most important, sharply reduced their net positions. Thus, in general, the downward movement that began later on was sufficiently substantiated. The only problem is that it started late. The new COT report, which only covers the dates when the euro began its long-awaited fall, showed completely opposite data. Non-commercial traders opened 15,500 new Buy-contracts (longs) and almost 6,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for this group of traders has increased by around 9,000, which shows that traders are becoming bullish. Accordingly, the behavior of the EUR/USD pair and the COT report data simply do not match. For the second week in a row. However, if you try to look at the overall picture, you can still note a very weak strengthening of the bearish sentiment, so the COT report allows a slight fall in the euro. The question is whether it will continue to decline at all, since we have already seen a "weak fall" from the September highs. It is possible that the strengthening of the bullish sentiment will make it possible for the pair to resume growth.

No important macroeconomic publications in the European Union and the United States on Monday. Nevertheless, the dollar simultaneously began to depreciate against the dollar and the euro from the very morning of the previous day. Thus, it is possible that professional traders started the new week by reducing dollar positions, which caused the dollar to weaken itself. Only minor reports from the EU are scheduled on the second trading day of the week, such as the level of consumer confidence or the index of economic sentiment. Market participants will ignore them. FOMC representatives Clarida, Quarles, Williams will deliver a speech in the United States. Speeches by Federal Reserve members happen often enough, but they rarely contain important information. Last week, even Fed Chairman Jerome Powell never managed to surprise the markets, although he had three attempts to do so. Thus, the fundamental background is likely to be weak today. However, it is quite possible that traders do not need help from the "foundation" now.

We have two trading ideas for September 29:

1) Buyers remain outside of the market, but they can be active at any time, as evidenced by the data of the COT report. Therefore, we recommend considering long positions if the pair settles above the Kijun-sen line (1.1696), the resistance area of 1.1704-1.1728 and the descending channel with the Senkou Span B line (1.1763) with targets at 1.1798 and the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1910. Take Profit in this case will be from 20 to 110 points.

2) Bears are in control. But the same COT report warns that the dollar's rise may be very short-lived. Nevertheless, as long as the price is below the Kijun-sen line, you are advised to continue trading down with the target at the support level of 1.1538. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 110 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 29. Confidence in Boris Johnson continues to fall.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 154.9716

On Monday, September 28, the GBP/USD pair was in a fairly strong upward movement. The pair's quotes at the end of the previous week stood firmly in one place and failed to gain a foothold below the Murray level of "0/8" - 1.2695. Thus, we can even assume at the moment that the downward movement is complete. However, if the US dollar looks frankly weaker when paired with the euro currency, then the big question is which currency is less in demand in the market when paired with the pound sterling. Recall that the latest COT reports on the pound showed a sharp reduction in both long and short positions, which means that major players get rid of any contracts for the pound, simply not having the desire to deal with it. Further, this behavior of professional market participants is not at all surprising. We have repeatedly spoken about the uncertainty surrounding the future of America. Thus, the uncertainty surrounding the future of the UK is even "more uncertain". Thus, it is even difficult to give preference to one of the currencies in the pound/dollar pair, so we recommend that traders pay special attention to the technical picture.

As for the fundamental background, it does not change for the British currency. From our point of view, the most interesting process in the UK now is the systematic decline in the political ratings of Boris Johnson and the government as a whole. The British are dissatisfied with the way the government handled the first "wave" of the epidemic. Now Boris Johnson has announced a second "wave", tightened quarantine measures, increased fines for non-compliance with these measures, and recorded an increase in the number of cases of "coronavirus" every day in the Foggy Albion. On September 25, an absolute anti-record was set – almost 7,000 cases. We have repeatedly tried to understand the question of what victories the British Prime Minister has won in more than a year of his rule. And they could only remember and come up with "the end of Brexit". Boris Johnson did not distinguish himself in anything else special. However, he collected a huge collection of defeats. We will not list them again. It seems that the British are also beginning to understand that Boris Johnson is exclusively a "Brexit option". Yes, Johnson did what Theresa May did not. However, the price that Britain will now pay seems to be better if Parliament agreed to Theresa May's proposals. Recent opinion polls show that Britons would not vote in such numbers for the conservatives if the parliamentary elections happened now. The conservatives would get 39% of the vote, while labor would get 42%. Of course, every poll has a margin of error. However, the general mood of the British is clear. They are dissatisfied with the "conservative government". Thus, many experts are already speculating about the likelihood of Boris Johnson resigning early. However, this task is not easy. Only his party members can dismiss Johnson. There is a certain discord and split in opinion among the conservatives, however, it has not yet reached its peak. The question is, will it reach?

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson himself called on the whole world to participate in the investigation of the causes of the "coronavirus". The British Prime Minister recalled that the entire world has suffered serious economic damage, and 1 million people have already died from the pandemic. Johnson also believes that "answering questions" is not necessary to "punish the perpetrators", but to "prevent this from happening again in the future." Johnson noted that over the past 8 years, there have been eight outbreaks of various diseases on Earth that could well become pandemics.

At the same time, the saga of the Brexit negotiations continues. According to British media, the final rounds of negotiations between Brussels and London will take place this week, attended by Michael Gove, a member of the UK Cabinet. Gove will negotiate directly with the Vice-President of the European Commission Maros Sefcovic. Thus, the groups of David Frost and Michel Barnier have pushed aside. Of course, it is reported that both sides will again try to agree on a deal, however, there are very few chances for a successful outcome of the negotiations. Boris Johnson refuses to make concessions and compromises on issues of fishing, the judicial system, European norms and standards, and others. Moreover, as we have repeatedly noted, London does not show a particularly strong desire to conclude any deal with the EU. The most interesting thing is that at the same time, the "Johnson bill" is under consideration in the House of Commons of the British Parliament. There will be no new vote in the near future, however, the situation with this bill is "hanging in the air", and at the same time "suspends" any negotiations with the European Union. Brussels has already stated that if this bill is passed, further negotiations with London will automatically become impossible, and the consideration of all disputed issues will flow from the offices of Brussels to the Court. Thus, this is another factor that practically puts an end to the success of negotiations on the conditions for the future coexistence of the UK and the European Union after 2021.

As we have already said, both the British pound and the US dollar look quite weak right now. The fact that the GBP/USD pair is still fixed above the moving average line gives a good chance of growth for the pound. However, to be honest, it is difficult for us to imagine that the markets are actively buying the pound. However, on Monday alone, the pound rose by about 200 points, which is a lot even for the pound. One way or another, you need to be ready for a strong movement in any direction. For the pound, the market is now very "thin", so volatility can grow, and the reaction to almost any important event can be very strong and sharp.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 132 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Tuesday, September 29, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2711 and 1.2971. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down signals a possible resumption of the downward movement or a turn of the already downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2817

S2 – 1.2756

S3 – 1.2695

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2878

R2 – 1.2939

R3 – 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started an upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe and broke the moving average line. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in the longs with the goals of 1.2878, 1.2939, and 1.3000 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards (it was possible to open longs when the price was fixed above the moving average). It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.2711 and 1.2695 if the price returns to the area below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 29. Donald Trump hasn't paid taxes for 10 years. Democrats and Republicans started

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -37.3225

The European currency paired with the US dollar began to adjust on the first trading day of the week. The growth was quite confident, thus, we can even assume that the downward movement is complete. Recall that there were no fundamental reasons for the strengthening of the US currency. There are no improvements in the epidemiological situation, no easing of tension in the political sphere, and no fundamental improvements in the economy. In the economy, we can say that everything is going according to plan. The economy is recovering from the "coronavirus crisis", which cannot even be considered complete yet. The epidemic persists and, first of all, this applies to the States that retain the world's leadership in the number of deaths from this disease and the number of diseases themselves. Thus, we continue to insist that the only reason for the dollar's growth in recent weeks is technical. After the pair grew by 1300 points, traders had to correct it. Further, it took traders more than two months to do this. Thus, from our point of view, the US currency may well resume falling in the near future.

Unfortunately, there is still no positive or optimistic news from overseas. On Monday, it became known that Steven Mnuchin and Nancy Pelosi (both Democrats and Republicans) are willing to sit at the negotiating table to still agree with a package of economic assistance to the most affected sectors of the economy and segments of the US population. It seems to be optimistic news, however, Nancy Pelosi immediately announced that her party is preparing a new proposal for $ 2.4 trillion. What's the point if previous similar-sized proposals have already been rejected by Republicans as too costly? Nevertheless, both prominent politicians are preparing to discuss something again, although we believe that all this is no longer important. On the eve of the presidential election (5 weeks left), Democrats and Republicans will not cooperate. They need to put the opposing candidate in the most unsightly light. Therefore, the Democrats are unlikely to reduce the amount of aid offered (they need to make Trump look like a miser who does not understand the seriousness of the "coronavirus" and its consequences for the economy). Also, Trump and his party will not meet the Democrats halfway, since the initiative of a large aid package belongs to them, respectively, it is Biden's political ratings that can grow due to the approval of the economic stimulus package.

Also, interesting details from the life of each of the candidates for the post of President-2020 continue to emerge. For example, the New York Times found out that Donald Trump has not paid income tax for 10 years, after getting to his tax returns. It turned out that hundreds of companies that are united in one business empire, 10 of the 15 years before Trump became president, worked at a loss. The article reports that Trump paid $ 750 in income tax in 2016 and the same amount in 2017. At the same time, the publication reports that in 2018 alone, Trump received income of about $ 600 million for participating in a reality show, for permission to use his name, and through investments in two buildings. Thus, the US President had to pay about $ 100 million in taxes. "This equation is a key element of the alchemy of Trump's finances: using the proceeds of his fame to buy and support risky businesses, and then using their losses to avoid taxes," the authors note. Trump himself, of course, called the article "fake" and said that "he paid a lot of taxes to the state of New York". Donald also promised to submit his tax returns as soon as the audit of his accounting, which has been going on for several years, is over. Moreover, the US President has requested and received income tax refunds of $ 73 million since 2010.

Meanwhile, the entire country is frozen in anticipation of another reality show – the Trump-Biden debate. The first round will be held today (September 29) in Cleveland. It will be followed by two more rounds. The Commission on Presidential Debates announced that both candidates for the post will have to speak on six points:

1) political "background";

2) the situation in the Supreme Court over the death of Ruth Ginsburg;

3) COVID-2019 epidemic;

4) the economy and its recovery from the pandemic;

5) racial conflicts and problems;

6) protection of electoral processes.

In total, the debate will last for an hour and a half. Many experts expect surprises in the air. It's no secret that Donald Trump is much more powerful in public speaking, and besides, he never reaches for a word in his pocket. However, it is also no secret that in most issues the electorate supports the views of Joe Biden. Thus, we are waiting for a very fun performance, which can be called almost the main event of the current week.

And until the debate began, Donald Trump did not forget to once again prick the Democrats. This time, Trump felt that the Democrats were slowing down the process of developing a vaccine against the "coronavirus". As usual, the President did not provide any evidence of his words. Over the past 4 years, everyone has become accustomed to the fact that the American President makes mostly unprovable statements, and often absurd.

The last thing I would like to note is that Trump very quickly found a replacement for the prematurely deceased Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsburg. Her successor should be 48-year-old, Amy Coney Barrett. Thus, in the near future, the Senate will vote for this candidate, in which the majority of voters are Republicans. Thus, there is no doubt that Amy Barrett will become the new Chief Justice, bringing the number of judges appointed by Republicans to 6 out of a possible 9. We are waiting for the fight between Trump and Biden in the Supreme Court.

As for the US dollar, it is likely to continue to remain under market pressure until the election. We still believe that traders and investors will not take risks and will simply wait for the election results before buying the dollar and investing in the US economy. Many fear that Trump will win and start a war with large US companies that have production in China and other countries with cheap labor. Thus, we do not expect strong growth of the US currency in the near future. Fixing the price above the moving average line may even trigger the resumption of the upward trend.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 29 is 70 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1588 and 1.1728. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down to signal the completion of the spiral upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1658

R2 – 1.1719

R3 – 1.1780

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement. Thus, now you can continue to hold open short positions with targets of 1.1597 and 1.1546 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to re-consider options for opening long positions if the pair is fixed above the moving average with the first targets of 1.1780 and 1.1841.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com