May 19, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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Intermediate-term Technical outlook for the GBP/USD pair remains bullish as long as bullish persistence is maintained above 1.1890-1.1900 (Double-Bottom Neckline) on the H4 Charts.

Recently, Bullish persistence above 1.2265 has enhanced another bullish movement up to the price levels of 1.2520-1.2590 where significant bearish rejection as well as a quick bearish decline were previously demonstrated (In the period between 14th - 21 April).

Currently, Atypical Bearish Head & Shoulders reversal pattern may be in progress. The pair was recently demonstrating the right Shoulder of the pattern.

Hence, Bearish persistence below 1.2265 (Reversal Pattern Neckline) was needed to confirm the pattern. Thus, enhance another bearish movement towards 1.2100, 1.2000 then 1.1920.

By the end of Last Week, Intraday traders were advised to wait for bearish pullback towards the price levels of 1.2300-1.2280 where a low-risk short-term BUY trade could be taken.

The recently demonstrated Lower High around 1.2440 endangered the previously-mentioned short-term bullish scenario.

That's why, the price zone of 1.2300-1.2280 failed to provide enough bullish support for the pair. Thus, the suggested short-term BUY trade was invalidated shortly after.

The current bearish breakdown below 1.2265 should be taken into consideration as it confirms the previously-mentioned reversal-top pattern.

Hence, further bearish decline would eventually be enabled towards 1.2020 as a projection target for the reversal pattern.

Currently, the price zone of 1.2265-1.2300 (Backside of the broken Uptrend) stands as a recently-established SUPPLY-Zone to offer bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry for the pair in the short-term.

Trade recommendations :

Intraday traders can wait for the current bullish pullback to pursuetowards 1.2265-1.2300 for a valid low-risk SELL entry.

T/P level to be located around 1.2150, 1.2100 and 1.2000 while S/L should be placed above 1.2265.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for May 19, 2020

The pair traded upwards on Monday and tested 1.0924 - a 61.8% pullback level (presented in a blue dotted line). Today, the price may continue to move up. Economic calendar news for the euro is expected at 09:00 UTC, and for the dollar at 12:30 and 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the upward trend is likely to continue from the level of 1.0917 (closing of yesterday's candle) with the target at 1.0960 - a 76.4% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). From this level, the price may begin to move downwards with the target of 1.0888 - a 38.2% pullback level (presented in a red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move upwards from the level of 1.0917 (closing of yesterday's candle) with the target of 1.0960 - a 76.4% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). From this level, the price may begin to move downward with the target of 1.0888 - a 38.2% pullback level (represented in a red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is an upward trend from 1.0960 - a 76.4% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line) with a target of 1.0983 - an 85.4% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Why did gold quotes fall yesterday?

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell forecast the US economy to recover steadily in the second half of the year, provided that there is no second wave of Covid-19. According to Powell, the Fed is ready to implement more tools to stimulate the US economy if necessary.

Against such statements, gold quotes dropped sharply on Monday.

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Powell also said that the Fed is not planning to resort to negative interest rates to support the economy, but he called out to the Congress and said that they need to do more actions to help the economy deal with the effects of the outbreak.

The Trump administration is ready to take further steps to support the US economy during a new outbreak of coronavirus, if necessary.

Another reason for the decline were the studies conducted on coronavirus vaccine. According to US analysts, because of such, metal, as a refuge, lost demand.

"Gold lost some profit, reflecting the change in safe haven flows amid hopes for a vaccine," Daniel Ghali, analyst at TD Securities, said in an email. "Since the vaccine is the primary means of resolving future economic problems, this will eliminate the need for a long period during which the Fed and other central banks will provide unprecedented incentives."

The previous growth of gold was driven by the tensions brewing between the US and China, as well as on the speculations about the possibility of negative interest rates in the United States. According to JPMorgan negative rates may happen, but will not last for a long time.

Meanwhile, the World Gold Council (WGC) expects the number of central banks buying gold to increase substantially in 2020. Bloomberg reports that according to a recent WGC survey, 20% of central banks intend to increase gold reserves over the next 12 months, and the current drop in gold is just a small correction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Large British auction

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Good afternoon traders! Here is a trading idea for the GBP/USD pair.

Recently, the pound was in the clear range of 5000 pips between quotes 1.26500 and 1.21500. A breakdown occurred at the lower limit on Friday, and yesterday, news of the successful test of the Covid-19 vaccine on humans was published. With such data, the pound returned to its range, so I suggest working on a false breakdown of the lower border to get a movement upwards.

D1:

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Implement the idea on the lower time frames using yesterday's long impulse as wave "A" of the classic "ABC" structure

H1:

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Wait for a rollback before working for an increase by holding long positions to the first goal 1.22400 (double absorption peak). Consolidate part of the position and hold the quotes to the upper border of the auction, with profit taking at 1.26500.

The trading idea is based on the framework of the "Price Action" and "Stop Hunting" methods.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold initiative

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Good day traders! Here is a trading idea for gold.

After a long growth and an update of the yearly highs, gold quotes dropped sharply by 3,500 pips in just 6 hours.

With such a situation, short gold to a 50% pullback from yesterday's initiative:

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The initiative came after Powell's statements regarding the US economy, which is forecast to recover steadily during the second half of the year, provided that there is no second wave of Covid-19. According to Powell, the Fed is prepared to use more tools to stimulate the US economy if necessary. With such news, gold quotes dropped sharply on Monday.

Another reason for the decline are the current studies for the coronavirus vaccine. According to US analysts, metal, as a refuge, lost demand.

"Gold lost some profit, reflecting some change in safe haven flows amid hopes for a vaccine," Daniel Ghali, analyst at TD Securities said in an email. "Since the vaccine is the primary means of resolving future economic problems, this will eliminate the need for a long period during which the Fed and other central banks will provide unprecedented incentives."

Continue shorting gold in the US session. If yesterday's low is broken, close 2/3 of the position and leave 1/3 of "breakeven" until 1660.

Good luck in trading and control the risks!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on May 19

Forecast for May 19:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1005, 1.0971, 1.0954, 1.0927, 1.0896, 1.0877 and 1.0850. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of May 14. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.0927. In this case, the target is 1.0954. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.0954 - 1.0971. For the potential value for the upward trend, we consider the level of 1.1005. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.0896 - 1.0877. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0850. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0927 Take profit: 1.0954

Buy: 1.0971 Take profit: 1.1005

Sell: 1.0896 Take profit: 1.0878

Sell: 1.0875 Take profit: 1.0852

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2414, 1.2361, 1.2325, 1.2272, 1.2226, 1.2183, 1.2143 and 1.2069. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of May 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2226. In this case, the target is 1.2272. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2272 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.2325. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2325 - 1.2361. For the potential value for the upward movement, we consider the level of 1.2414. Upon reaching this level, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2183 - 1.2143. The breakdown of the last level will favor the development of a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 1.2069.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of May 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2226 Take profit: 1.2270

Buy: 1.2274 Take profit: 1.2325

Sell: 1.2180 Take profit: 1.2145

Sell: 1.2140 Take profit: 1.2074

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9810, 0.9788, 0.9772, 0.9750, 0.9720, 0.9701 and 0.9664. Here, we are following the formation of initial conditions for the upward movement of May 13. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9750. In this case, the target is 0.9772. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9772 - 0.9788. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9810. Upon reaching this level, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9720 - 0.9701. Hence, there is a high probability of an upward reversal. The breakdown of the level of 0.9701 will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is 0.9664.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 13

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9750 Take profit: 0.9786

Buy : 0.9790 Take profit: 0.9810

Sell: 0.9720 Take profit: 0.9702

Sell: 0.9698 Take profit: 0.9665

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.09, 107.91, 107.67, 107.46, 107.15, 107.02, 106.73, 106.45, 106.08 and 105.84. Here, we are following the formation of the descending structure of May 11. At the moment, the price is in correction and has formed a small potential for the top. We expect a short-term downward movement in the range of 107.15 - 107.02. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a resumption of a downward trend. In this case, the first target is 106.73. The breakdown of which will allow us to expect movement to the level of 106.45. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 106.45 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 106.08. We consider the level of 105.84 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

We expect the development of the rising structure from May 14 after the breakdown of 107.46. Here, the first goal is 107.67. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.67 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 107.91. We consider the level of 108.09 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

The main trend: the descending structure of May 11, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.47 Take profit: 107.65

Buy : 107.69 Take profit: 107.90

Sell: 107.00 Take profit: 106.75

Sell: 106.71 Take profit: 106.47

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.4044, 1.4004, 1.3976, 1.3927, 1.3898, 1.3855 and 1.3832. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of May 14. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3927 - 1.3898. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3855. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level 1.3832. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3976 - 1.4004. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the target is 1.4044. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of May 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3976 Take profit: 1.4002

Buy : 1.4006 Take profit: 1.4042

Sell: 1.3927 Take profit: 1.3900

Sell: 1.3896 Take profit: 1.3855

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6705, 0.6666, 0.6608, 0.6561, 0.6494, 0.6472, 0.6434 and 0.6401. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of May 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6561. In this case, the target is 0.6608. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.6608 will lead to the development of pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 0.6666. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6705. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6494 - 0.6472. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6434. This level is a key support for the upward structure and the price passing this level will have the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential goal is 0.6401.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of May 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6561 Take profit: 0.6606

Buy: 0.6610 Take profit: 0.6666

Sell : 0.6494 Take profit : 0.6474

Sell: 0.6470 Take profit: 0.6440

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.16, 118.68, 117.94, 117.37, 116.79, 116.47 and 116.03. Here, we consider the ascending structure of May 14 as the medium-term initial conditions for the ascending cycle. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 117.37. In this case, the target is 117.94. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 117.96 will lead to the development of pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 116.68. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 119.16. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 116.79 - 116.47. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 116.03. This level is a key support for the top and its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is 115.30.

The main trend is the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the top of May 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 117.40 Take profit: 117.92

Buy: 117.96 Take profit: 116.68

Sell: 116.79 Take profit: 116.50

Sell: 116.45 Take profit: 116.05

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 133.16, 132.62, 131.90, 131.33, 130.44, 129.98 and 129.24. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the top of May 15. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 131.33 - 131.90. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 132.62. We consider the level of 133.16 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 130.44 - 129.98; hence, there is a high probability of an upward reversal. The breakdown of the level of 129.98 will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the potential target is 129.24.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of May 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 131.33 Take profit: 131.85

Buy: 131.94 Take profit: 132.62

Sell: 130.44 Take profit: 130.00

Sell: 129.95 Take profit: 129.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for May 19, 2020

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EUR/GBP is currently consolidating and we should ideally see a second dip closer to strong support at 0.8866 before the next strong rally higher to 0.9066 and longer term a continuation to and above the former peak at 0.9499.

It's possible, that the second dip of the ongoing consolidation only manage to move as low at 0.8893 before taking off again towards the next upside target at 0.9066, but only time will show how impatient the bulls are.

R3: 0.9066

R2: 0.9029

R1: 0.8960

Pivot: 0.8946

S1: 0.8932

S2: 0.8893

S3: 0.8866

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 19, 2020

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After a perfect 61.8% correction in wave ii/ EUR/JPY rallied through the ending diagonal resistance-line without any problems at all. With the break above the ending diagonal resistance-line, we now have confirmation that an important low has been seen at 114.40 and a return to the starting point of the ending diagonal at 122.86 should be expected within the coming months.

The strong rally out of support at 115.91 could indicate a minor consolidation towards 116.76 before the next strong rally higher to 118.61 on the way higher to 122.86 as the first upside target.

R3: 117.76

R2: 117.42

R1: 117.23

Pivot: 116.99

S1: 116.75

S2: 116.54

S3: 116.33

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 115.65 and we will move our stop to 115.20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for May 19, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has broken out of a narrow range located between the levels of 1.0780 - 1.0846 and shoot up towards the the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0921 again. This level must be clearly violated in order to rally towards the swing high at 1.1017. The momentum is now strong and positive, but might turn negative if the Fibonacci retracement is not clearly violated. Still no clear trend indication, but the larger time frame trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.0995

WR2 - 1.0945

WR1 - 1.0876

Weekly Pivot - 1.0824

WS1 - 1.0753

WS2 - 1.0693

WS3 - 1.0627

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main long term trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for May 19, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of 1.2073 and then bounced from the lower channel boundary towards the nearest technical resistance at 1.2165. Despite the oversold market conditions the momentum remains negative well and the odds for another wave down are still high. The nearest technical resistance seen at the level of 1.2165 was violated already, so now the target is seen at the level of 1.2246. If the level of 1.2072 is clearly violated, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2012, which is the key short-term technical support for bulls. No signs of down trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2598

WR2 - 1.2514

WR1 - 1.2258

Weekly Pivot - 1.2179

WS1 - 1.1913

WS2 - 1.1832

WS3 - 1.1572

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal will be possible when the coronavirus pandemic is tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 19, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

By reducing the block reward by half, the only good information for Bitcoin miners is transaction fees. At the moment, they allow to minimize their losses due to recent halving, as a result of which the revenues of miners fell by over 60%.

On May 10, miners earned 2,188 BTC, on May 12 this figure dropped to 852 BTC, or 61%. Halving forced some miners to leave the chain, which led to a reduction in the network's hashrate rate. This, in turn, led to an increase in the block interval, which means that fewer of them were processed per unit time, thus reducing the number of block rewards available to miners.

What has happened so far can be called the "mini spiral of death" scenario. The only good news for miners is that network congestion has led to a sharp increase in transaction fees, i.e. from $ 0.62 at the end of April to $ 5.21 on May 15. Currently, as a result of this dynamic situation, transaction fees amount to 17% of miners' revenues. This is the highest percentage since January 2018.

Miners' revenues denominated in USD fell from $ 19.25 million on May 9, to $ 7.82 million on May 12. This is a decrease of 62%. The next correction in mining difficulty will occur in three days. However, current calculations predict growth because hashrate went up significantly before halving. However, before this happens, we will probably see a slight decrease in difficulty, which should help other miners.

It is possible that as Bitcoin matures and each subsequent halving, there will eventually be no more new Bitcoins, so miners will have to rely more on transaction fees. However, the higher they are, the less attractive the network will be for users.

It should be remembered, however, that many mining industry experts believe that the hashrate decline is upward for Bitcoins, as it will increase the profitability of other miners.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been hovering around the level of $10,000, which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls. The recent local high was made at the level of $9,888, so any violation of this level will lead to the local up trend extension towards the level of $10,227 - $10,430. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,382. Please notice, the market conditions on daily time frame chart are extremely overbought.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,194

WR2 - $10,994

WR1 - $10,553

Weekly Pivot - $9,337

WS1 - $8,765

WS2 - $7,555

WS3 - 7,013

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 19, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Mexican crypto stock exchange Bitso joined forces with Donadora's crowdfunding platform to launch a cryptography-based donation system. The platform will help raise funds to buy food for the most affected families affected by the crisis caused by COVID-19.

According to a report published by Mexican media, each food package delivered will be worth 150 Mexican Pesos. This amount will be enough to feed families of 4-6 people in a given week. Donation options include both fiat currency and various cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP. The local stock exchange said that cryptographic donations are a very effective method of financing by society. This is due to their decentralized nature and the fact that anyone in the world can participate in such an initiative.

Earlier, industry portals reported another cryptographic crowdfunding campaign carried out in April by the Italian Red Cross. The campaign was aimed at building advanced medical infrastructure to combat COVID-19 in Italy. Thanks to this venture, he managed to raise $ 10,000 in four weeks.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high during the rally at the level of $216 and is currently consolidating the gains around the level of $210 in a narrow range. The momentum behind the move up is strong, but the market conditions are extremely overbought on the daily time frame chart, so the rally might be short-lived. Nevertheless, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $217.65 and $225.84. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $204.50.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $259.01

WR2 - $231.70

WR1 - $222.59

Weekly Pivot - $197.56

WS1 - $188.48

WS2 - $163.94

WS3 - $154.56

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 19. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's trade). Buyers and sellers are building

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

In yesterday's review, I advised you to buy the euro after a false breakout in the area of 1.0808, which happened, and the demand for EUR/USD sharply grew during the US session, which led to a fairly large upward correction. If you look at the 5 minute chart, then it was possible to open a long position in the euro after the breakout and then consolidate above the resistance 1.0849, which quickly brought the pair to the highs 1.0895 and 1.0923, where you can open short positions, as I also mentioned in my prediction for the second half of the day. The sharp rise in the euro may be directly related to the good news about the successful test of the coronavirus vaccine. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for May 12 recorded an increase in both short and long positions, but now the market is flocking to the side of buyers of the European currency, as the Delta has increased, which indicates some advantage for the bulls in the current conditions. Given that today there will be regular speeches by senior US officials, including the Finance Minister and the Federal Reserve chief, and they will be associated with possible new aid packages for the economy, demand for the euro could be sustained. The report shows an increase in short non-profit positions from the level of 92,973 to 93,840, while long non-profit positions also increased from the level of 169,272 to 171,980. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position increased slightly to 78,140, against 76,299, indicating an increase in interest in purchasing risky assets at current prices. As for the intraday strategy, buyers will focus on the resistance of 1.0923, since a break and consolidation at this level will lead to a continuation of the upward correction to the highs of 1.0972 and 1.1013, where I recommend taking profits. An important task will be to hold the 1.0886 area and form a false breakout on it, which will also be a signal to open long positions in the euro. The moving average test will be an additional point in this development of the situation. If there are no active purchases in the area of 1.0886 and growth does not resume, the bulls will doubt the seriousness of yesterday's momentum and retreat to the support area of 1.0855. It is best to open long positions immediately for a rebound from the low of 1.0808 while expecting a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers will act quite accurately on a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.0923, since any statements by the Fed chief on the topic of the possible allocation of aid can cause the euro to sharply strengthen. If pressure does not form after a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.0923, it is best to postpone short positions until the test of larger highs 1.0972 and 1.1013 and open short positions therefrom immediately for a rebound while expecting a correction of 30-35 points within a day. An important task for the bears is to return EUR/USD to the support level of 1.0886, afterwards, it will be possible to talk about damping the bullish momentum and you can expect an update of lows to 1.0855 with the support test of 1.0808, where I recommend taking profit.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates forming a new upward trend.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Further growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.0965. In case the euro falls, it is possible to open long positions immediately for a rebound from the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.0808.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD testing descending trendline resistance! Drop incoming!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.65156

Reason for Entry: 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Take Profit : 0.64734

Reason for Take Profit: Graphical overlap, 50% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.65509

Reason for Stop loss: Descending trendline resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD testing 1st support, potential bounce !

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3902

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing low ,161.8% fibonacci extension

Take Profit :1.3970

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss: 1.3863

Reason for Stop loss: 200% fibonacci extension

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD testing resistance, potential reversal

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.09203

Reason for Entry: 127.2% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance

Take Profit: 1.08348

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.09630

Reason for Stop loss: 76.4% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 19, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro grew by 94 points on several controversial factors yesterday - on the one hand, oil rose by 10.5% to 32.83 dollars and overall risk appetites increased, on the other hand, the EU summit considered a package of assistance to the affected sectors and regions, which is half as much, than expected - 500 billion against the expected 1 trillion. Moreover, it will be a fund, and not direct help, which creates additional bureaucratic difficulties. As often happens, the expected but not realized optimism worked on the market, that is, the euro's growth as a result occurred on speculation. The growth occurred on volumes equal to Friday, which indirectly confirms the speculative nature of yesterday's growth in the thin market.

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The price reached the price channel line just above the MACD line on the daily chart. The Marlin Oscillator is growing in the zone of positive values, so there is still a growth potential. Overcoming yesterday's high may send the euro to the upper border of the 1.5-month trading range of 1.0767-1.0995.

It is possible to turn down prices directly from current levels, indicators will quickly return to the downward trend, the euro will go to the lower border of the range of 1.0767.

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The situation is not clarified on the four-hour chart. The price is above the indicator lines, Marlin is in the growth zone. All that remains is to wait for speculation to cool and then it will become clear what the market really intended.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on May 19, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar chose a rising scenario on Monday, an increase of 110 points. The price lingered in the range of target levels 0.6495-0.6562, and the situation is such that overcoming one of its borders sets the aussie's direction for several days or even weeks. An exit above 0.6562 with price taking above it opens the nearest target of 0.6677, the second growth target of 0.6820. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone, with a previous reversal of the signal line from the border with the fall zone, and its direct signal is still in growth.

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The return of the price at 0.6495 - under the line of the price channel on the daily chart, opens the first goal of falling to 0.6343 - the underlying line of this price channel. In this case, Marlin will return to the negative zone and its insignificant reversal will turn into only a special case of the correctional fluctuation of the downward trend.

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The situation is upward in terms of indicators on the four-hour chart, the second and more important condition for the price to return to the downward movement can be discussed after it leaves the area under the support of the MACD line in the region of 0.6464.

We are waiting for developments.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on May 19, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese currency is in a very difficult position; The dollar index fell 0.75% on Monday, while Japan's GDP for the first quarter showed a decline of -0.9% after -1.9% in the fourth quarter, which indicates Japan's official recession, but stock indices were growing. The Nikkei 225 adds 1.88% in the Asian session today. The dollar rose 25 points against the yen on Monday. This morning, the dollar went above the MACD line on the daily chart and is trying to overcome the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel, which, if successful, opens the way for it to rise to 108.30, 109.50, 110.83 (November 2017 low).

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The pair's growth in the current conditions will now be seen the yen weakening due to the domestic problems of Japan and the growth of the US stock market.

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The situation is completely increasing on the four-hour chart - the price is above the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of positive values. Actually, a signal to open purchases will be the price transition above the peak of May 11 (107.78).

The price moving to a low of May 15, 106.88 will be the first sign of a return to the downward trend. The main condition for the decline is the price drift under the price channel line in the region of 106.55.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and intraday trading signals for GBP/USD on May 19. COT report. Sellers who just took a short break continue

GBP/USD 1H

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An upward movement also began on the hourly chart for the pound/dollar pair on May 18, but within the framework of the downward channel. Traders managed to work out the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator by the end of the first trading day of the week, which runs at a price level of 1.2205, as well as a resistance area of 1.2196 - 1.2216. In addition, quotes of the pair rose to the upper line of the descending channel, which means that the bulls need to overcome three important barriers at once on Tuesday, May 19. Moreover, the first attempt has already failed. Therefore, we believe that the pound could resume to fall with the target of 1.1987 today.

GBP/USD 15M

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The lower linear regression channel clearly shows the corrective movement against the main trend on the 15-minute timeframe. Quotes of the pair approached the upper line of the downward channel and will now try to turn back down. The first step towards changing the short-term trend will be consolidating below the moving average line. After that, the downward movement may resume, given the unsuccessful attempts to overcome important resistance on the hourly timeframe.

COT report

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The latest COT report for May 12 shows that the total number of buy and sell transactions among large traders per week increased by 4,000, mainly due to purchases. However, the total number of transactions for the purchase is still only 16,000 more than transactions for selling. Such an imbalance persists for a long period of time, and it was not enough for the pair to begin forming an upward trend. In the reporting week, professional traders opened more new deals for selling (4539), which means that most of them are waiting for the British currency to fall again.

The fundamental background for the British pound remains sharply negative. And, unlike the euro currency, we can safely say that it is precisely because of it that the pound has become cheaper in recent weeks. Traders are wary of buying the pound due to uncertainty with Brexit, with trade negotiations with Brussels, Boris Johnson's implacable position in dialogue with Europe, because of the severe collapse of the British economy as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, which the British authorities coped with as badly as the Americans. The macroeconomic background for the British pound is also absolutely negative, but at least it was offset due to the no less negative background from the United States.

On May 19, we have two main options for the development of the event:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of the bears, as the price continues to be located inside the downward channel on the hourly timeframe. Thus, we recommend buying the British pound not before consolidating the price above this channel for the first purpose, the resistance level of 1.2325. The next goal, in case of overcoming the first, is the Senkou Span B line - 1.2445. Take profit will be about 75 points in the first case and 190 points in the second.

2) Sellers have great chances to implement their trading ideas. A price rebound from Kijun-sen and the area of 1.2196 - 1.2216 will be enough to resume selling the pair with the target of the support level of 1.1987. In this case, take profit will be about 200 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and intraday trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on May 19. COT report. Will Jerome Powell's speech add optimism

EUR/USD 1H

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Quotes of the EUR/USD pair sharply jumped on the hourly timeframe yesterday, breaking the Senkou Span B line of the Ichimoku indicator on the 4-hour timeframe, and the first resistance level is 1.0886 and the resistance area is 1.0880 - 1.0893. Traders were not able to overcome a long-term ascending trend line for a long period of time, several rebounds were made from it. In general, the bulls finally woke up and made a significant step towards forming a new upward trend. Now, buyers need to stay above the important Senkou Span B line, since after such a strong movement, a downward correction should inevitably follow. So it requires either a rebound from the Senkou Span B line, or a correction + overcoming this line in the future.

EUR/USD 15M

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We see a confident upward trend on the 15-minute timeframe, which formed on May 18. The trend is bullish, but after the first trading day of the week, the momentum of buyers has dried up. Now, on the lowest timeframe, we expect the price to consolidate below the moving average line and to systematically move down to the lower border of the older linear regression channel. Near its bottom line or the Senkou Span B line, an upward turn is possible on the hourly timeframe with resuming purchases of the European currency by market participants.

COT report

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The latest COT report dated May 12 showed a new decrease in the number of buy and sell transactions among large traders, by 4,781 and by 3,554. Thus, the general mood of large traders remains bullish (the total number of purchase transactions is higher, 549,000 - 521,000), in addition to this, traders still managed to stay above the trend line on the 4-hour timeframe. Also, purchase positions increased among entities engaged in professional activities in the foreign exchange market (+4569 purchase transactions). Thus, the euro can continue the growth process for some time.

As for the fundamental background, it is almost neutral for the pair. A lot of news comes from both the European Union and the United States, however both countries are in more or less the same position, neither the dollar nor the euro has advantages. The macroeconomic background continues to be largely ignored by traders, as both economies are simultaneously declining due to the coronavirus epidemic. Today we advise you not to miss the speech of Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell in Congress, although he said everything he could say this weekend in an interview with the American channel. In any case, skipping such an important event is not worth it.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for May 19:

1) It is possible for the pair's quotes to grow further, but most likely, traders will need to adjust, afterwards, the main movement will resume. Recall that on the 4-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair remains within the 1.0750-1.0990 channel. Thus, the upward movement, towards the April 19 high, is very likely in the current conditions. One way or another, it is advised to buy the pair above the Senkou Span B line with targets at 1.0952 and 1.0990. The potential to take profit is about 35 and 75 points.

2) The second option - bearish - involves the backward consolidation of the pair below the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. In this case, the upward movement on Monday will be recognized as a random impulse of buyers, not confirmed either technically or macroeconomically. Bears will be able to return the initiative into their own hands and try again to overcome the upward trend line around 1.0800. It is advised to sell the pair while aiming for a trend line below the Kijun-sen line. The potential to take profit while executing this scenario will be 55 points. Any further sales of the pair are possible only below the trend line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. May 19. The pound continues to suffer due to the lack of a deal with the EU. US officials continue

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -120.8191

The British pound also started an upward movement on the first trading day of the week, but in this case, we are talking about a correction against the downward trend. The upward movement was quite strong; the pair passed more than 140 points during the day. Since the pair has already got out of the side channel earlier, we continue to consider the option with the continuation of the downward trend as the main one. Therefore, we expect a rebound from the moving average and a resumption of the downward movement with a target of 1.2085 or lower. Most of the macroeconomic publications continue to be ignored by traders, but now the fundamental background is significant for the pair. And it remains not in favor of the British currency. Thus, the pound is again under the pressure of the market.

We have already discussed the general fundamental background many times, even before the "coronavirus" epidemic around the world, which affected the United Kingdom and the United States the most. Before the pandemic, the position of the British pound already looked extremely unattractive due to Brexit, the "hard" policy of Boris Johnson in negotiations with the European Union on agreements that will operate after the completion of the "divorce". The Kingdom's economy was also experiencing much greater problems than, for example, the American one, which was simply suffering from a trade war with China. But with the arrival of the pandemic, the situation has become even worse. And the greatest concern is the lack of trade deals with the EU and the US and the low probability of their signing in the near future. Thus, in the long term, the British pound will continue to remain under the pressure it has been under since 2014 (when the second wave of long-term depreciation of the British pound began).

As for regular macroeconomic statistics, they are now worse in Britain than in many countries also affected by the COVID-2019 pandemic. Of course, there are more confident leaders in the fall of the economy, but the UK is not far from them. The next reports on the state of the economy will be published today. If the unemployment rate for the month of March does not cause serious concerns (it is projected to increase from just 4.0% to 4.4%), then the number of applications submitted by British people for unemployment benefits may jump sharply up. The forecast is +150 thousand new applications in April with the "normal" value of +-25 thousand. Also today, we will publish a report on wages for March with forecasts of +2.6% and +2.7% (with and without bonuses), but we have repeatedly said that these reports are now the least important for market participants.

In the afternoon, there will be a performance of Jerome Powell in Congress. The rhetoric of Powell does not cause any issues. What can the head of the Federal Reserve talk about, if not about the economic shock of the epidemic, the fall of the economy, and the growth of unemployment? In principle, Powell has already spoken just this weekend and has already stated that in the second quarter, the US economy can decline by 20%, and the unemployment rate can grow to 25%. Notably, Jerome Powell's forecasts were higher than those previously provided by the US Department of Labor. The Fed Chairman also said that the US government will have to continue to provide assistance to households for several more months to help them overcome the effects of the economic downturn. In addition, Powell said that Congress and the Fed will need more help for American citizens and workers, and the economy will recover gradually. The main thing that will determine the timing and pace of recovery is the results of the fight against the "coronavirus". This includes developing a vaccine and reducing the number of cases. It is worth adding that according to the latest data, almost 1.5 million cases of the disease and almost 90 thousand deaths were recorded in the States.

Meanwhile, the US has received new accusations against China in the spread of "coronavirus". This time from the Director of the National Trade Council, Peter Navarro. He said: "Let's look at the facts. Correct me if I'm wrong: the virus was born in Wuhan, patient zero was recorded back in November. China hid behind the WHO and hid the virus from the world for two months, and during that time and after, it sent hundreds of thousands of Chinese people on planes to Milan, New York, and around the world to spread it. China could have left it in Wuhan, but it became a pandemic as a result of the inaction of the Chinese authorities. That's why I say that the Chinese have harmed the Americans, and they will be held responsible for it." We will remind that earlier such rhetoric was voiced by Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo, who claimed that there was a huge amount of evidence of the guilt of the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Chinese authorities, but they have not yet been presented to the public.

If you try to look at the situation as a whole, the pound may even now be fixed above the moving average and strengthen to $ 1.23 or $ 1.24. However, this will almost always be corrective growth. All countries of the world are currently experiencing a huge number of problems. For example, at the end of last week, it also became known that a new package of assistance to the American economy, estimated at 3 trillion dollars, probably will not be provided in the near future. It's all the fault of the feud between Republicans and Democrats. This time, the Republicans almost blocked the initiative of the Democrats to allocate a new tranche of aid, calling it an attempt to promote themselves at the budget expense. Thus, it is often difficult to tell where the situation is worse at this time.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair remains stable and is currently 123 points. On Tuesday, May 19, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2070 and 1.2316. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate the possible completion of the upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2146

S2 – 1.2085

S3 – 1.2024

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2207

R2 – 1.2268

R3 – 1.2329

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started to adjust against the downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the correction to complete and resume trading downwards with the goals of 1.2146 and 1.2085 if the quotes rebound from the moving average line or in the case of a reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to buy the pound/dollar not before fixing the price above the moving average with the first goals of 1.2329 and 1.2390.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. May 19. The war between the Democrats and Donald Trump continues. "Obamagate". Joe Biden also

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 222.3220

The EUR/USD currency pair starts a new trading week with an upward movement inside a narrow side channel of 1.0780-1.0880. By the end of the last day, the quotes still managed to overcome the upper limit of this channel, so we return to the wider side of the channel 1.0750-1.0990. Now the pair is likely to move to its upper limit, and at the same time to the psychological level of $ 1.10. Volatility on Monday was quite high, although this rarely happens on Mondays. The high activity of traders remained throughout the day, even at the very end of the American session.

In previous articles, we have already said that Donald Trump, by firing another official, provoked a new investigation against himself. Democrats are clinging to any opportunity to show the "true face" of Trump and achieve his non-re-election in November 2020. Fortunately, things are going very well for Trump's main rival, Democrat Joe Biden, according to the latest ratings. At the same time, the situation can turn "upside-down" at any moment. However, this is not the only trial or, to be more precise, a political scandal that is currently taking place in America. We are talking about the so-called "Obamagate" case. Its essence is that Donald Trump at the end of his presidential term intended to put the previous President of the country, Barack Obama, in prison. According to the US leader, Barack Obama tried to influence the results of the 2016 presidential election. "This is the largest political crime in the history of our country. All those who are involved in it, all these schemers-Democrats, they should all be behind bars for a long time," Trump "rumbled" in his usual manner a few days ago. "What happened is a disgrace for the country. This is a real scam, a pure hoax. The people who were behind this should go to prison, and this is waiting for many of the previous President's team. Everyone who was behind it. This is Obama. This is Biden. These people are mired in corruption. They tried to overthrow the legally elected President. It seems that we have caught them," the current US President continued. In the ability to speak in public, Trump can not be denied. So, according to Trump, Barack Obama used his official position to prevent the election of him as the new President of the United States in 2016. The head of the White House believes that it was Obama who led the entire campaign against him and insisted on investigating ties with Russia. Naturally, as in 90% of cases, the American leader did not provide any evidence or arguments. He, as usual, said that the necessary information will appear gradually in the coming weeks and called on journalists to "honestly cover this case". Nothing new. We are not opponents of Donald Trump or his fans, but each of his large-scale and loud statements or actions immediately raises a number of questions that are difficult to find answers to. For example, the first question is: why did Donald Trump raise this topic and start accusing the former President of the country of all mortal sins now, when he himself has no more than six months left in the presidential term? Why now, when the "coronavirus" is raging in the world and in the United States? Opposition forces and the media, as well as neutral journalists and ordinary people, believe that Trump is thus trying to divert the attention of voters from 80,000 deaths from an epidemic in which, according to many Americans, it's his government that is to blame, and again "cast a shadow" on Democrat Joe Biden, who also seems to be involved in this case. We have already said that Trump needs those responsible for the epidemic. This is China. It remains only to promote this direction. We are not saying that China is not to blame, but this strategy is necessary for Trump to be re-elected as President of the United States. Also, the attention of voters needs to be urgently switched in a negative context to the Democrats. Therefore, next to the name of Barack Obama, who in Trump's opinion is to blame, the name of Joe Biden, who is a fellow party member of Obama, was also blamed. Now, Trump and his team will probably spin the version of the guilt of all Democrats that they purposefully oppose him. And China is to blame for the epidemic.

Today in the United States, in addition to the very likely new information from the White House, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to speak in the US Congress. Powell speaks in Congress only a few times a year, so every speech gets a lot of attention. However, at the same time, Powell rarely reports anything new in these speeches. As a rule, all the most important things he says after the Fed meetings. This time it will be about the same. The main theses of Powell's speech will be published before the speech itself. Moreover, over the weekend, Powell gave an interview to CBS and has already revealed his current vision of what is happening in the United States. We believe that the market reaction to this event will be extremely weak.

Also on this day, frankly secondary publications of indicators in the European Union are planned. The index of assessment of current economic conditions, the index of economic sentiment, the index of sentiment in the business environment of the institute. It is easy to guess that all these reports will be extremely weak, but in any case, they are not particularly important for market participants. It will be possible to determine only the general mood of investors. And this mood will determine whether business activity in the EU, in particular in Germany, is beginning to recover.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of May 19 is 82 points. Thus, the value of the indicator remains stable and is characterized as "average", despite a fairly active Monday. Today, we expect quotes to move between the levels of 1.0833 and 1.0997. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal a turn of the downward movement within the channel of 1.0750-1.0990.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0864

S2 – 1.0803

S3 – 1.0742

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0925

R2 – 1,0986

R3 – 1.1047

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed above the moving average line, so the current purchase orders with the goals of 1.0925 and 1.0986, the first of which has already been worked out, are relevant now. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate a round of corrective movement within the side channel 1.0750-1.0990. It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair after the quotes exit from the side channel, that is, below the level of 1.0750 with the goal of the Murray level of "-1/8"-1.0681.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com