Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 5, 2015

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The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.


The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 950 pips since the beginning of 2015.


Theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially after the FULL bearish MONTHLY below 1.2000 (January's candlestick).


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A bearish breakout below 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT) allowed a quick bearish decline towards 1.1100 to take place few days later.


A bearish Flag pattern was established on the daily chart. DAILY fixation below the price level of 1.1260 (recent bottom) confirmed that bearish pattern.


The price action should have been watched around 1.1110 (WEEKLY Low) as bearish breakdown directly exposes lower targets initially around 1.0800.


In case of bearish persistence below 1.1100, estimated long-term projection targets for the flag pattern would be located around 1.0800 and 1.0500.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 5, 2015

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A bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Bears have already pushed towards the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960, which have not been visited since July 2013.


Around the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960 the market has established another consolidation zone, which extended up to the price levels of 1.5280.


Two weeks ago, the ongoing bearish trend was terminated when bullish breakout above 1.5200 took place, as depicted on the chart. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending upwards within the depicted bullish channel.


Estimated projection targets located around 1.5600-1.5640 have not been reached. Instead, bears put significant pressure around 1.5550 resulting in formation of multiple bearish engulfing daily candlesticks without further retesting of 1.5600.


The nearest DEMAND level to meet the pair is located around 1.5200 where the previous tops were located.


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Two weeks ago, the GBP/USD pair consolidated above the price zone of 1.5300-1.5360 which failed to provide enough RESISTANCE over the last bullish swing.


For the current bullish breakout to persist, bulls should keep defending the price zone of 1.5170-1.5220 (significant Fibonacci zone) that is being tested today.


On the other hand, the price action should be seen around the price zone of 1.5170-1.5220 (Intraday DEMAND zone) to determine the next destination of the GBP/USD pair.


Bearish breakdown of 1.5170 should not be excluded, especially after the obvious bearish engulfing candlestick that occurred on Monday. If so, a quick bearish decline towards 1.5080 would be expected.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 5, 2015

General overview for 05/03/2015 14:20 CET


On larger time frames like H4 we can see, that this market is still inside the well-defined range zone and according to Elliott wave theory, there is a possibility to count the first impulsive wave progression to the upside. The most important level for this impulsive wave count is the support at the level of 1.2378, because any breakout lower would invalidate the impulsive count and the corrective cycle will become more complex and time consuming. On the other hand, the market must break out above the level of 1.2565 in order to continue climbing higher.


Support/Resistance:


1.2378 - Technical Support|Invalidation Level|


1.2565 - Technical Resistance


1.2658 - Technical Resistance


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders and swingtraders should consider to open buy orders on current market levels, with SL below the level of 1.2378 and TP open for now.


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EUR/NZD : analysis for March 05, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.4780 in a volume above the average. According to the 4H time frame, we saw lack of supply around the price of 1.4583 and a strong reaction from buyers. WE got resistance level at the price of 1.4775 (currently on the test) and resistance level around the price of 1.4915. Selling EUR/NZD at this stage still looks very risky since we may expect reaction from buyers.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.4754


R2: 1.4815


R3: 1.4914


Support levels:


S1: 1.4556


S2: 1.4495


S3: 1.4396


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).




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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 5, 2015

General overview for 05/03/2015 14:00 CET


As it was anticipated yesterday, the lack of impulsive wave progression to the upside was the first sign that the lows of wave X brown might be tested again. Currently, the market is bouncing up after finding support at the level of 132.16. The key level for more gain is the intraday resistance at the level of 133.43. Breakout above this level means the market is back to the range zone, and further gains can be seen even up to the level of 135.02.


Support/Resistance:


132.16 - Intraday Support


132.77 - WS1


133.43 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|


134.22 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening buy orders only if the level of 133.43 is violated with SL below the level of 132.16 and TP open for now.


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Gold: analysis for March 05, 2015

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price has tested the level of $1,197.00 in a volume below the average. Our major Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,197.00 is again on the test. According to the 1H time frame, we can observe support (cluster) around the price of $1,197.00.My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. We have a resistance level around the price of $1,235.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). According to the daily time frame, we have a weak supply bar in a volume below the average.


Daily Fibonacci pivot points:


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,206.96


R2: 1,213.03


R3: 1,217.66


Support levels :


S1: 1,196.26


S2: 1,191.63


S3: 1,185.56


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement (buy on the dips).










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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 05, 2015

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Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit 11-year high 96.059 Wednesday, last 95.91 versus 95.37 early Wednesday) as stronger-than-expected U.S. February ISM non-manufacturing PMI of 56.9 (versus forecast 56.2) bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by midyear. The pair is also boosted by the rise of 212,000 jobs in the US private sector in February (slightly below the forecast of +215,000, but above 200,000 for the 13th successive reading), demand from Japan's importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. The upside of USD/JPY is limited by the Japanese exports, lower US Treasury yields (2-year at 0.658% versus 0.682% late Tuesday), flows to the safe haven JPY amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 2.67% to 14.23, S&P 500 closed 0.44% lower at 2,098.53 overnight) as caution sets in ahead of the US February non-farm payrolls that are to be released on Friday.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing. Stochastics is turning bearish, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.60 and the second target at 120.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.10. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.60. The pivot point is at 119.65.


Resistance levels:

120.60

120.85

121.35




Support levels:

119.10

118.60

118.25


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 05, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a six-week high of 0.9685 on EBS Wednesday. It is underpinned by the bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit 11-year high 96.059 Wednesday, last 95.91 versus 95.37 early Wednesday) as stronger-than-expected US February ISM non-manufacturing PMI of 56.9 (versus forecast 56.2) bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by midyear. The pair is also boosted by the rise of 212,000 jobs in the US private sector in February (slightly below the forecast of +215,000, but above 200,000 for the 13th successive reading), the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels. Five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9705 and the second target at 0.9735. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9580. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9530. The pivot point is at 0.9615.


Resistance levels:

0.9705

0.9735

0.9780


Support levels:

0.9580

0.9530

0.9495


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 05, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade with risks skewed higher. It is supported by positive sentiment for commodity-linked currencies as oil prices advanced on Tuesday and by the NZD-USD interest differential. Kiwi sentiment is dented by the anemic increase of 1.1% in Fonterra's GDT Price Index and the fall of 1.0% in average price for whole milk powder to $3,241/MT at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction. The gains of NZD/USD are also tempered by kiwi sales on the buoyant AUD/NZD cross and subdued investor risk appetite.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics is reverted to bullish mode at overbought levels. Five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7615 and the second target at 0.7655. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7470. The pivot point is at 0.7540.


Resistance levels:

0.7615

0.7655

0.7695

Support levels:


0.75

0.7470

0.7430


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 05, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a one-month low of 132.40 on EBS on Wednesday. It is undermined by the soft EUR/USD undertone, decreased investor risk tolerance and Japan's exports. But the GBP/JPY losses are tempered by demand from the Japanese importers.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 182.50. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 182.10. The pivot point stands at 183.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 184.15 and the second target at 184.40.


Resistance levels:

184.15

184.40

184.75


Support levels:

182.50

182.10

181.75


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Daily analysis of USDX for March 05, 2015

Bulls are currently dominating the USDX's general bias and already finished forming a higher high pattern on the daily chart. Remember that the nearest target in the upside road is the resistance level of 96.96, a zone that could be reached before the end of this week. Also, don't forget that the USDX could form another bullish pattern.


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The bullish structure is also strong on the H1 chart, as the USDX is trying to consolidate above the level of 96.08. All the targets are pointing to the upwards and we could see this instrument reaching the resistance zone of 96.85 in a short-term bias. However, be cautious because the MACD indicator could show us a bullish divergence in the coming hours.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.96 / 98.01


Dailychart's support levels: 95.45 / 94.18


H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.08 / 96.85


H1 chart's support levels: 95.52 / 95.31






Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick. The resistance level is at 96.08, take profit is at 96.85, and stop loss is at 95.31.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 05, 2015

Now, the GBP/USD is showing strong wekaness in the major time frames, as the pair is currently finding support at the level of 1.5247. Bears could continue dominating the main bias, and if GBP/USD breaks that support zone, the next target would be the level of 1.5086. Moreover, we cannot discard a rebound at the current territory because the pair is oversold on the lower charts.


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On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD is forming a lower low pattern in order to reach the support level of 1.5202 in the short term. Also, the 200 SMA is showing us the current bears power, as it's pointing to the downwards. The price action in this time frame probably is forecasting an imminent retracement to 1.5270 in the coming hours.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5761 / 1.5957


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5491 / 1.5247


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5340 / 1.5413


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5257 / 1.5202






Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick. The support level is at 1.5257, take profit is at 1.5202, and stop loss is at 1.5313.


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 5, 2015

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Overview :



  • The market of AUD/USD will probably start showing the signs of bullish market again in order to indicate a bullish opportunity from the level of 0.7792, which represents a minor support on the H1 chart. It should be also noted that this support is coinciding with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. So, it is recommended to buy during the correction and to open long trades above 0.7792 with targets at 0.7818 continuing towards the strong resistance around the area of 0.7850. Meanwhile, bulls were forced to pull back below the level of this area; therefore, this level will form a strong resistance in order to indicate a bearish opportunity below the resistance (0.7850). On the other hand, there is a new intraday bearish outlook on March 5, 2015: if a close is below 0.7780, the market will be called for a downtrend in order to continue bearish movement towards the prices of 0.7751 to test the double bottom at the same time frame.


Review :



  • The key level will be at the level of 0.7792. It should be also noted that the level of 0.7792 represents the weekly pivot point.

  • The support of the AUD/USD pair has been already set at 0.7780-0.7792.

  • The price of 0.7850 represents the weekly resistance 1, and the level of 0.7858 is going to form a double top on the H1 chart.

  • So, we expect a new range about 68 pips today.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 5, 2015

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Overview :



  • The USD/CHF pair has not shown signs of following the break of the highest level of 0.9580 and has opened above the daily pivot point today. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 0.9600 with the first target at 0.9725 and resume to 0.9750 today. However, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9580, the market is likely to decline to 0.9434 in order to indicate a correction movement at this level. Meanwhile, the daily chart represents a strong support at 0.9600, moreover the channel emerging of the RSI is still positive on the weekly frame, so the RSI calls for a new uptrend at this level. Additionally, if the EMA50 (blue color) cross over the support at the price of 0.9613, it would be more a confirmation for uptrend in a long term period.


Intraday technical levels :


Date:5/03/2015


Pair:USD/CHF



  • R3: 0.9759

  • R2: 0.9718

  • R1: 0.9675

  • PP: 0.9634

  • S1: 0.9591

  • S2: 0.9550

  • S3: 0.9507


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#USDX technical analysis for March 5, 2015

The Dollar index remains in a fully bullish mode now that we have made new 11 year highs. The Dollar is very strong and as I have been saying for some time now, longer-term trend points to 100-101 and bulls are in full control of the trend. Becase of the EUR/USD in the major component of the Dollar index breaking to new lows, trend is clearly bullish for the Dollar. I remain long since the last buy signal (95 level). The triangle pattern were broken upwards.


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Red rectangle = support area


The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Both tenkan-sen and kijun-sen are positively sloped and after a bullish cross at 94.50 the bullish trend is picking up. The Chikou span has no resistance levels close by and trend is fully bullish in all time frames.


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The monthly chart remains fully bullish and price has now broken above the 50% retracement. Critical support is at 94. As long as we trade above it, I will be expecting the index to reach the 61.8% retracement above 101. We are making new 11 year highs. This not a time to bet against the trend.


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Gold technical analysis for March 5, 2015

Gold price looks weak but holds above the support area of $1,200-$1,190. I could see gold price bouncing towards $1,235 or even $1,250, but as a counter-trend move. The longer-term trend is bearish and it is likely to wait for an opportunity to sell.


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Gold price is below the Ichimoku cloud again. However, the price still remains above the February lows. The first bounce, I believe, was too shallow to be completed. So, I will be expecting another bounce higher towards the 38% retracement before opening a short position again.


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The weekly chart remains bearish as the price stays below the kijun-sen (yellow line) indicator. If we break above that level, we should expect gold price to reach the red line indicator (tenkan-sen) at $1,250. The longer-term trend is still bearish. Important support is at $1,180.




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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 05, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair has dropped lower to the sub-levels of 132.00 taking stops placed at the levels of 132.50 earlier. Please note that the pair is now testing the Fibonacci 0.786 support of the rally between 130.70 and 136.70 at 132.00/10, respectively. It is still recommended to initiate long positions with risk at the levels of 130.00. Immediate support is seen at 130.75 followed by 130.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 137.50-138.00 followed by 140.30 and higher, respectively. The upside potential still remains upwards to at least the levels of 140.00 util 130.75 remains intact.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate new long positions at 132.30/40. Stop is at 130.00, target is 140.00.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 05, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair is trading at sub 147.00 levels for now and is about to break below the immediate support trend line as depicted on the 4H chart view here. The pair has earlier reversed from 1.4795 levels, just shy of our stops at 1.4830 levels. It is recommended to remain short for now, with risk at 1.4830 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.4580 levels, followed by 1.4400/10 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4800 (interim), 1.5100 and higher respectively. Bears could resume a deeper correction if 1.4580 levels break.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short for now, stop at 1.4830, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Silver for March 05, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has formed a potential double bottom at $16.00/10 levels as seen here. Moreover, the metal has stalled at the fibonacci 0.618 support level of the rally between $14.66 and $18.50 levels, respectively. The metal is expected to resume its rally towards $20.00 and $21.00 levels any moment now. Immediate support is seen at $16.00 (interim), followed by $15.50 and lower, while resistance is seen at $17.40/50, followed by $18.40/50, $18.90 and higher, respectively. Bulls are expected to remain in control untill prices stay above $15.50 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $15.50, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for March 05, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has been seen trading around the $1,200.00/05.00 levels over a few days now. It is just a matter of time though before the metal resumes its uptrend. Please note that the metal has formed a higher low at $1,190.00 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at $1,170.00 levels followed by $1,030.00 levels and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,240.00, followed by $1,285.00, $1,307.00 and higher respectively. Bulls are expected to remain in control till the time prices stay above $1,170.00 levels. As projected here, upside target is around $1,400.00 in the coming weeks, for the yellow metal.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $1,170.00, target is open.


Good luck!




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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 5 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The decline in red wave v of (v) extended below the long term support line at 1.4700. We expect this to be a classic case of overshooting. We are still looking for a firm bottom and will be looking for a break above minor resistance at 1.4667 and a break above 1.4800 to confirm that a bottom is in place. Short term, minor support at 1.4611 will ideally protect the downside from the expected break above 1.4667. Only a break below support at 1.4586 will indicate that the bottom is not in place yet.


Trading recommendation:


We are long EUR from 1.4725 and will place our stop at 1.4580. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.4667 with the same stop at 1.4580.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 5 - 2015

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Technical summary:


We have seen a nice and strong decline after the break below support at 133.39 and more importantl break below support at 132.52 confirming that the correction in wave (iv) ended at 135.91 and wave (v) is developing lower towards 125.98 . Short term, we expect resistance at 133.20 to protect the upside for the next decline lower towards the 161.8% extension target at 131.00 and possibly even lower.


Trading recommendation:


We are short EUR from 133.90 and will lower our stop to break-even. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 133.20 with the same stop at 133.90.


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Technical analysis of Gold for March 05, 2015

The RBI surprise rate cut hit the gold at yesterday's session. The bank's rate was adjusted by 25 basis points from 8.75 per cent to 8.50 per cent with effect from March 04, 2015. Moreover, the positive US data affected the metal price at sub $1,200.00. It raises hopes that the US Federal Reserve will raise the benchmark interest rate. Today, traders eye US unemployment data and ECB road map to its QE. Ahead of the ECB meeting, the metal price is trading higher at the Asian session. The price is hovering around $1,200.00 for 9 days. This week, US nonfarm pay roll is due on Friday, which will influence the Federal Reserve thinking about an interest rate hike. Until prices close below $1,214.00, bears have the upper hand. The intraday support is found at $1,195.00 and resistance is seen at $1,204.50 and $1,209.00. The weekly resistance is set between $1,223.00 and $1,228.00. The near-term bottom was placed at $1,190.00. A daily close below $1,185.00 leads to $1,179.00, $1,170.00, $1,167.00, and $1,150.00. We recommend fresh selling below $1,195.00 with targets at $1,190 and $1,185.00. We can expect intraday strong momentum only above $1,208.00 towards the levels of $1,211.00 , $1,214.00, $1,216.00, $1,220.00 and $1,222.00. Today, the metal opened on a bullish note.


Resistance: $1,204.00, $1,209.00, $1,214.00.


Support: $1,200.00, $1,195.00, $1,190.00.


Trade: selling below $1,195.00.


Strong upswing momentum is only above $1,209.00. Until the price closes above $1,195.00, bulls are trying to hit $1,222.00 again.



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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 05, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data on the ECB press conference, minimum bid rate, the French 10-y bond auction, the retail PMI, and the German factory orders m/m are expected to be released. The US will announce the infotmation about natural gas storage, factory orders m/m, revised unit labor costs q/q, the revised nonfarm productivity q/q, unemployment claims, and Challenger job cuts y/y. So, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day amid reports.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1133.

Strong Resistance:1.1127.

Original Resistance: 1.1116.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1105.

Target Inner Area: 1.1079

Inner Buy Area: 1.1053.

Original Support: 1.1042.

Strong Support: 1.1031.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1025.





Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 05, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on 30-y bond auction and the US is expected to release economic data on natural gas storage, factory orders m/m, the revised unit labor costs q/q, the revised nonfarm productivity q/q, unemployment claims, and Challenger job cuts y/y. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move from low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.32.

Resistance. 2: 120.09.

Resistance. 1: 119.86.

Support. 1: 119.57.

Support. 2: 119.34.

Support. 3: 119.10.





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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 5, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair has become weaker, going below the resistance line at 1.1100. It is very much likely that the support line at 1.1050 would be challenged – it may even be breached to the downside. But would the EUR reach parity with the USD? Only time would tell, but this seems likely to happen. Unless the price manages to climb back towards the resistance line at 1.2000, there is a high probability of the EUR reaching parity with the USD is very high.


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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair continues to go upwards in a determined manner. The bullish movement is slow and gradual, as the price forms a series of lower highs and higher highs in the chart. The price is now above the support level at 0.9600. It has tested the resistance level at 0.9650 but it was unable to close above it. The price needs to close above that resistance line; otherwise, there is possibility of a serious pullback from here.


1425512302_2.png

GBP/USD: According to our forecast, the GBP/USD pair was able to trend lower yesterday, going below the distribution territory at 1.5300. This looks like the beginning of a significant bearish movement, the GBP is expected to be weak against the most major currencies. Certain fundamental figures are expected today and they are supposed to have an impact on the market.


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USD/JPY: The fundamental figures that moved some popular Forex markets yesterday had a negligible effect on this pair. There is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart: the RSI period 14 is above the level 50, while the price itself is above the EMA 56. There may be a bullish movement from here.


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EUR/JPY: This cross dived yesterday, due to the weak Euro. The demand level at 132.50 has been tested. A rally is still expected unless the price closes below it,.


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Daily analysis of Silver for March 04, 2015

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Overview


As shown on the today's H4 chart, the metal is stabilizing above the support level of 16.00 with the upward trend line after its failure to break the support area last week. Currently, we must wait for retesting the support area again and closing below to get the bearish move opportunity. In that case, we will get a good opportunity to sell below the support level until testing the next support level of 15.70. Therefore, we can consider our first target few pips above this support level, but as long as the price is still above the support area, this cancels the bearish move scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (16.75), R2 (16.50), R1 (16.30), S1 (16.00), S2 (15.70), S3(15.50).




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 04, 2015

USDJPYM30.png

Fundamental Outlook:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting almost a three-week high 120.27 on Tuesday. USD/JPY is undermined by the comments from Etsuro Honda, economic adviser to Prime Minister Abe, that Japan's central bank should hold fire on extra easing measures for some time to ensure the economy doesn't "overheat," and that the present dollar-yen levels may be at a "kind of upper limit in the exchange rate's comfort zone." USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese exports, unwinding of the JPY-funded carry trades amid decreased risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 6.29% to 13.86, S&P 500 closed 0.45% lower at 2,107.78 overnight). But the dollar sentiment is soothed by a jump in the US ISM-NY business conditions index to 63.1 in February from 44.5 in January and a rise in the US IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 49.1 in March from 47.5 in February. The USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.126% versus 2.084% late Monday), demand from Japan's importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in the middle of the year.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD and stochastics are bullish. Five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing, but bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Tuesday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.10. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 118.60. The pivot point stands at 120. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.35 and the second target at 120.60.


Resistance levels:

120.35

120.75

121

Support levels:

119.10

118.60

118.25


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 04, 2015

USDCHFM30.png

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a six-week high of 0.9625 on Tuesday. It is underpinned by the negative Swiss interest rates and by the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention. The Swissie sentiment is boosted by the stronger-than-expected on-year expansion of 1.9% in Switzerland's GDP in 4Q (versus forecast +1.8%).


Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels. Five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9670 and the second target at 0.9705. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9530. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9495. The pivot point is at 0.9570.


Resistance levels:

0.9670

0.9705

0.9745


Support levels:

0.9530

0.9495

0.9545


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 04, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png

Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade with risks skewed higher. It is supported by positive sentiment for commodity-linked currencies as oil prices advanced on Tuesday and by the NZD-USD interest differential. The kiwi sentiment is dented by the anemic increase of 1.1% in Fonterra's GDT Price Index and the fall of 1.0% in average price for whole milk powder to $3,241/MT at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction. The gains of NZD/USD are also tempered by kiwi sales on the buoyant AUD/NZD cross and subdued investor risk appetite.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at overbought levels, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Tuesday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7615 and the second target at 0.7655. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7470. The pivot point is at 0.7540.


Resistance levels:

0.7615

0.7655

0.7695

Support levels:


0.75

0.7470

0.7430


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