Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 15 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6219


R2: 1.6166


R1: 1.6140


Current spot: 1.6128


S1: 1.6085


S2: 1.6055


S3: 1.6000


Technical summary:


No news here. We are still locked in a narrow range, with no real signs of a breakout any time soon. As long as we stay locked within the 1.6055 - 1.6219 nothing is going to happen here. We are still looking for a break above 1.6219 to get things going for a new rally towards 1.6446 and even higher to 1.6836. Only an unexpected break below 1.6055 will delay the expected upside pressure for a move closer to 1.6000, but the downside should be very limited.


Trading recommendation:


We are long on EUR from 1.6135 with stop placed at 1.6025. If you are not long on EUR yet, then buy near 1.6055 with the same stop at 1.6025.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 15 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 136.06


R2: 135.80


R1: 135.61


Current spot: 135.41


S1: 135.24


S2: 135.15


S3: 135.02


Technical summary:


We are currently looking for a break below support at 135.02, which should provide the acceleration lower in red wave iii that we are looking for. The target for red wave iii is ideally found at 132.66, where red wave iii will be 161.8% the length of red wave i. On the way lower, strong support should be expected at 133.58, which marks the 23.6% corrective target of the rally from 94.10 to 145.69. In the short term, we expect resistance at 136.05 to protect the upside for a break below 135.02.


Trading recommendation:


We are short in EUR from 135.70 and will keep our stop at 136.60. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 136.05 with the same stop at 136.60.


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EUR/NZD analysis for August 15, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading sideways around the price of 1.6130. We are facing very quite market and low acitivity. We are still waiting for larger volume and stronger price action. I have placed Fibonacci expansion from most recent swings to find support levels. I got Fibonacci expanson 61.8% at the price of 1.6070 (held successfully). If the price breaks the level of 1.6000, we may see the testing of the level of 1.5900. Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. According to the daily timeframe, we can observe weak demand on the market.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6176


R2: 1.6205


R3: 1.6252


Support levels:


S1: 1.6082


S2: 1.6053


S3: 1.6006


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we may see short-term bearish continuation.


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Gold analysis for October 15, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1,221.67. We can observe rejection from our resistnace level at the price of 1,234.00. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,217.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,204.00.According to the daily chart, we can observe weak demand in a volume below the average. On the mid term prospective, price rejected from our major Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,193.00, which caused price to start bullish phase. If the price breaks the level of 1,234.00 in a high volume, we may see the testing of the level of 1,244.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,237.54


R2: 1,239.31


R3: 1,242.17


Support levels


S1: 1,231.81


S2: 1,230.84


S3: 1,227.07


Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since gold is near resistance level


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 15, 2014

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Overview:


On July 15, an extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards below the depicted downtrend line.


Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180 and 1.6630 where the downtrend line came to meet the pair then.


The price zone of 1.6140 - 1.6100 constituted a weekly support that paused the bearish movement on September 9 although the bears quickly touched price level of 1.6060.


Retracement towards the price zone of 1.6350-1.6400 took place as expected where a new bearish impulse was applied as anticipated.


Until Yesterday, the bulls have been pushing towards the downtrend line (price zone of 1.6225-1.6250) when extensive bearish reaction occurred. This is manifested in yesterday's daily candlestick.


Trading recommendations:


A suggested, a slide below price zone of 1.6045-1.6020 indicated another SELL opportunity with higher risk. It's running in +ve pips as well. Stop loss should be advanced to 1.5990 to secure our profits.


Price level of 1.5890 should be watched for price action. Daily closure is important to determine the next destination of the pair. Bullish correction towards 1.5950 and 1.6000 is more likely to occur.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 15, 2014

General overview for 15/10/2014 12:50 CET


The situation hasn't changed much since yesterday as the market keeps making lower lows and lower highs. This might mean, that after completing the internal corrective sub-wave b purple, the golden trendline will be broken and the last wave c purple will be finally made. The projected target level is still the same at the level of 134.66 and a rebound is being expected from this level. The bullish divergence on the awesome oscillator supports the view.


Support/Resistance:


134.62 - WS1


135.08 - Intraday Support


136.05 - Intraday Resistance


136.30 - Weekly Pivot


136.55 - Technical Resistance


136.96 - WR1


136.93 - Technical Resistance


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should wait if the golden trend line is broken, and then open sell orders with SL above the level of 136.05 and TP at the level of 134.66.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 15, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • The resistance of the GBP/USD pair has already set at 1.6085 on October 15, 2014. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.6085 is representing the pivot point. Therefore, it will be very profitable to sell above this level for retesting this level in the long term. Consequently, sell deals are recommended below the weekly pivot point with targets at 1.5945 (the level of 1.3838 is representing the weekly support 1). Additionally, the descending movement will probably be lower than the 1.5945. Moreover, it continues toward the level of 1.5903 in order to call for a bearish market from today. The stop loss should always be in account for that it will be very safe to set the stop loss at the level of 1.6115.



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Notes :



  • We expect a new range about 105 pips today.

  • The key level will set at the level of 1.5945.

  • The support of the GBP/USD pair has already set at 1.5812. Moreover, the weekly support 2 will set at the same level.

  • If the trend fails to close above the level of 1.5945, it will be a good opportunity to sell below 1.5945 with the target at 1.5903.

  • The price of 1.6085 is representing the weekly pivot point and 1.6115 is going to form a double top.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 15, 2014

General overview for 15/10/2014 12:20 CET


The wave progression is developing as anticipated and still higher highs are being made. It looks like the wave (3) might have been done and internal corrective sub-cycle is being made now. The projected level for this cycle to complete is at the level of 1.1321 and the market should rebound. However, if this level is broken, then the next target for the wave (4) is at the level of 1.1277. Only a clear and sustained breakout below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook and made a corrective cycle more complex and time-consuming.


Support/Resistance:


1.1370 - WR2


1.1321 - Intraday Support


1.1291 - WR1


1.1277 - Technical Support|Key Level|


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should consider opening buy limit orders from the level of 1.1321 with SL below the level of 1.1276 and TP above the last swing high.


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#USDX Technical analysis for October 15, 2014

The Dollar index has made an important bottoming formation around 85 where the 23.6% retracement is found. Some days ago I mentioned that the sideways move in the Dollar index is most probably a consolidation before a new upward move. I remain bullish as long as prices remain above 85.


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The Dollar index remains inside the upward sloping channel and is now trying to break above the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Breaking abe 86 will be a bullish sign and we could be at the early stages of another upward move towards 87.17. The higher low at 85.07 is also a good sign specially now that it was followed by a higher high.


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In the daily chart the Dollar index has remained above the 23% retracement and has retaken the tankan-sen. This is a bullish sign and I expect at least a double top to be formed if not new higher highs that will bring the index towards 88-89. Long-term trend remains bullish and very strong. Betting against it is very risky and I prefer to raise stop to 85 for any long position.


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Gold Technical analysis for October 15, 2014

Gold has paused its rise at the 38% retracement and reversed short-term trend by breaking below the upward sloping trend line. The upward bounce from $1,180 is most probably over and a new downward move has started with target below $1,180. Longer-term trend remains bearish and so do we expect gold to fall towards $1,000.


goldh4.jpg

Red line= trend line


Blue line= support


The red trendline support is now broken and gold price has given the first sell signal since October 1st. Gold price has reached the 38% retracement of the $1,322-$1,183 decline. Gold price was rejected at that level and the sequence of higher highs and higher lows is now over. This is a sign of trend reversal in the short-term. We now look at support levels at $1,217 and $1,204 to see if the downward pressures expected will break these supports.

goldh1.jpg


Blue line= support


Gold price is falling in an impulsive pattern. The high at $1,238 is important resistance and bears do not want to see this level broken. On the other hand, bulls need to hold price above $1,216 and $1,204 important support levels. Breaking these two levels will confirm down trend and increase the chanes of making a new lower low below $1,183. My target is at $1,050 for the end of the entire downward move in Gold.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 15, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY has taken out potential support at 135.80 and tested 135.00 levels before bouncing back. As seen here, the pair is clearly in the sell zone of the resistance/downtrend line and a break of at least to 136.50/138.00 would be required for bulls to take control back. Resistance is seen at 136.50/70, followed by 138.00 and higher while support is seen at 135.00 (interim), followed by 134.00 and lower respectively. In short term, a rally towards 136.80 remains possible, but a bearish reversal there could take prices lower towards 134.00 at least. Bears shall remain in control till prices stay below 138.00 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 15, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair was expected to bounce off the Fibonacci levels earlier, but the pair has now dropped to a potential stronger support zone at 1.5180-1.5200 levels, which is also the Fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally from 1.4975 to 1.5550 levels as depicted here. Furthermore, the pair has produced a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern indicating a potential reversal. Support is seen at 1.5100, followed by 1.4975 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5450 and 1.5550 respectively. It is recommended to initiate long positions now (1.5180/90), risk remains just below 1.5100 levels. The bulls might just want to take back control from here on.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate long positions now, stop below 1.5100, target is 1.5800/50.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for October 15, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold is seen to be pulling back at the moment trading at $1,225.00 level. The metal had touched $1,237.00 level yesterday, and is now expected to retrace lower towards $1,205.00 level before resuming the rally. Immediate downside target for bears would be around $1,217.00/18.00 level, which is also Fibonacci 0.382 support for rally between $1,183.00 and $1,237.00 respectively. Good support is seen at $1,205.00, followed by $1,183.00 and lower while resistance is around $1,240.00, followed by $1,275.00 and higher respectively. It is recommended to initiate long positions at lower levels again.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Look to buy around $1,205.00 levels.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis on USD/JPY for October 15, 2014

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The pair fell back into the bullish flag in the weekly chart. The pair held the 38.2 fib level and started moving upwards. The pair has been facing resistance at the top end of the flag. Fresh buyers can start buying above 107.60 levels. On the upper side, above 107.60 it can fly up to 107.87, the 23.6 fib level, 108.25, 108.32 and 108.50, 20Dsma levels. In case the pair closes above the 23.6 fib level, it can gain some strength on a weekly basis. In case, if the pair closes above 108.50 20Dsma, the bulls can confront towards 109.23, 109.85 and 110.0 levels. In the daily chart, the trading pattern of the pair came out at the 8-day downward trend line, this represents the correction is going to end in the near term. This view becomes invalid, if the pair closes below 106.50, 38.2 fib level. The monthly support level is at 106.39 200M Sma.


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For an intraday view, the prices are trading above 35DEMA and 12ema, but facing strong resistance at 21hrsma in the h4 chart. We recommend safe buying above 107.60 with targets at 107.87, 108.15-108.25 levels. Safe selling will be triggered below 107.00 for target at 106.84 and panic below this for 106.65 to 106.50 levels.


Trade-


Buying above 107.60


Selling below 107.00


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Review on сrude oil for October 15, 2014

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The IMF global growth forecast, excess supply and concerns about global economic growth pushed the oil prices below $84. The oil prices break down from a verge of symmetric triangle in the weekly and monthly chart. In case, if the prices close below the bottom of the triangle or 84 level on a weekly basis, a new large bearish wave will generate. Earlier we recommended selling on every rise on September 05, 2014 and October 10, 2014 for a downside target at 88.81-80 levels recorded at 94.50 levels. In yesterday's session we made a low at 81.63 near our second target. A 13$ gain in one and a half month. On October 10, 2014 we recommended, a break below 84.06 the prices would extend its fall to 83.65, 82.10 in the near term, within 2 days it touched my targets. The long-term view indicates strong bearish targets aiming at 77.00, a June 2012 low, the 71.50 multi-month low and 69.50 200Msma.


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Review of USD/CAD for October 15, 2014

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As we recommended in yesterday's session safe buying was above 1.1223 levels. The buying call produces good money approximately 100 pips as of now today. The pair successfully breached the March 2013 high, trading above a 5-year high. On the upside the pair has positional target at 1.1647, 200Mema. In case, if the pair closes above 1.1279 on a monthly closing basis, we can expect 1.1938 in the long term. As we recommended in the previous article on October 07, 2014, an upside breakout of 0.0650 pips could print 1.1279 + 0.0650 = 1.1938 levels. In case, if this week the pair closes above 1.1279, we can see 1.1530 (the 138 fib level) in the next few weeks. For the near term we can see 1.1458 in the next few sessions. On the down side, it has support at 1.1150 levels.


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For an intraday view, the prices are closed above the hourly key moving averages. In the h4 chart, the pair gave an upside breakout from the ascending triangle height at 0.0129 targeting 1.1340 levels on an hourly basis. And the bigger hns pattern height of 0.0198 targeting 1.1468 on a daily basis.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 15, 2014

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The weak British CPI data pushes the cable to an 11-month low. In yesterday's session, the cable fell below the 200Msma. The cable has the nearest parallel support at 1.5854 (November 2011 low), below this, 1.5725, the 61.8 fib level, will act as support. In case, if the pair closes below 1.6025 on a monthly basis, the medium- and longer-term view turns negative. On the downside the cable is aiming at 1.5725, 1.5500 and even 1.5300 levels. On the upper side, it has resistance at 1.6027 and 1.6159 on a monthly basis. For the near and medium term, until the cable closes below 1.6227, the cable is aiming at 1.5655 levels. In the daily chart, the pair closed below the descending triangle.


Support 1.5854, 1.5760-1.5725, 1.55


Resistance 1.5955, 1.6052, 1.6176


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For an intraday view, the prices are closed far below the 12ema. In yesterday's session the pair closed below the descending triangle. The pair favors selling on every rise for a downside target at 1.5760 and 1.5725 in the near term. Safe selling will be triggered below 1.5854 levels.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 15, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core PPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories m/m, Beige Book, Federal Budget Balance, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2701.

Strong Resistance:1.2694

Original Resistance: 1.2682.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2670.

Target Inner Area: 1.2641.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2612.

Original Support: 1.2600.

Strong Support: 1.2588.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2581.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 15, 2014

In Asia, Japan will release the 30-y Bond Auction, Revised Industrial Production m/m, and the US will release some economic data such as PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core PPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories m/m, Beige Book, Federal Budget Balance. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 107.70.

Resistance. 2: 107.49.

Resistance. 1: 107.28.

Support. 1: 107.03.

Support. 2: 106.82.

Support. 3: 106.60.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 15, 2014

On the daily chart, we can see that the GBP/USD fell steeply from the level of 1.6050 to the support level of 1.5883, because the GBP/USD is very weak now and it is likely that this pair will begin to form another bearish pattern for continue strengthening the current bearish trend. If the pair manages to consolidate below this support level, the next target would be the 1.5746 level in the medium term.


GBPUSDDaily.png


Dailychart's resistance levels: 1.6046 – 1.6146


Daily chart's support levels: 1.5883 - 1.5746


The GBP/USD is forming a lower low pattern below the resistance level of 1.5925, because this pair found resistance near the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. However, the GBP/USD could begin to make a retracement because the MACD indicator is entering oversold zone.


GBPUSDH1.png


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5925 – 1.5980


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5871 – 1.5810


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6031, take profit is at 1.5980, and stop loss is at 1.6083.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 14, 2014

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Overview:


Two months ago, the ongoing bearish swing (initiated in March 2014) was hindered at the price level of 1.0620. This price level corresponded to the lower limit of the channel as well as the backside of a steeper bearish one.


In August, bullish breakout off the movement channel took place. This enabled a bullish Flag pattern to be established. Bullish targets were successfully hit, including price level of 1.1230.


Strong bullish momentum has been expressed for a couple of weeks. Note that breaching the price zone of 1.1230-1.1260 and fixation above it triggers new bullish swing towards 1.1290.


On the other hand, a break below 1.1100-1.1070 indicates that the bearish correction will extend further towards 1.0980-1.0950 where a key-support zone is depicted on the chart (the lower limit of the bullish channel and 50% Fibonacci level).


Recommendations:


The price zone of 1.1250-1.1276 (being tested again today) corresponded to previous significant tops on the daily chart. Extensive bearish rejection should be anticipated.


The current price movement may stay trapped inside the current consolidation range for a while. That's why, risky traders can take another SELL entry around 1.1200-1.1245. Bearish targets are located at 1.1075.


Then, the price zone of 1.0980-1.0950 should be watched for another LONG position to make use of the ongoing bullish trend.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 14, 2014

gbppdaily.jpg


Overview:


On July 15, an extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards below the depicted downtrend line.


Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180 and 1.6630 where the downtrend line came to meet the pair then.


The price zone of 1.6140 - 1.6100 constituted a weekly support that paused the bearish movement on September 9 although the bears quickly touched price level of 1.6060.


Retracement towards the price zone of 1.6350-1.6400 took place as expected where a new bearish impulse was applied as anticipated.


The bulls were pushing towards the downtrend line as well as previous prominent bottom on the weekly chart (price zone of 1.6225-1.6250).


Trading recommendations:


Based on the previous data, SELL positions are preferred as long as the bears keep defending the price zone of 1.6250-1.6320 ( 23.6% Fibonacci level and previous broken bottom ).


Yesterday as suggested, a slide below price zone of 1.6045-1.6020 indicated another SELL opportunity with higher risk. It's running in +ve pips now.


The stop loss should be placed above 1.6100. Price levels of 1.6080 and 1.5890 were initial targets ( both got visited ).


The newly-broken daily low at 1.5950 should be now defended by the bears in order to initiate another bearish swing towards lower targets.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for October 14, 2014

gbpdaily.jpg


Note the depicted Shooting Star daily candlestick that occurred previously around 61.8% Fibonacci level. Such significant bearish pressure offered SELL positions at retesting that took place a few days later.


Note that the bullish rejection was initiated when the market pushed below 1.6100 and 1.6060 on September 9. Another bearish leg was expressed below 1.6060 (the weekly low is located around 1.5950).


On the other hand, the price zone of 1.6100-1.6140 remains a prominent SUPPLY zone to meet the pair. It applied a considerable bearish pressure on the pair on Thursday resulting in formation of an Inverted Hammer daily candlestick.


gbp4h.jpg


4H chart reveals long period of downside movement roughly maintained within the limits of the depicted channel.


A SELL entry was suggested around the price level of 1.6140. It's running in profits now (+220 pips). Stop loss can now be advanced below 1.6120 to secure some profits.


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for October 14, 2014

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Overview


According to the today's H4 chart, yesterday's closing below the resistance level of 172.00 provided an opportunity to make a bearish move after the price has failed to break it through. As shown here, currently the price is trying to continue its bearish move and is approaching support level of 169.90. In that case we may get another opportunity for more sell signals which will open the way towards the level of 169.50 as the first target. Then the price should test the support level to continue its bearish move. But as long as the price stabilizes above the support level of 169.90, it cancels the first scenario.


Resistance and Support levels: R3 (172.00), R2(171.50), R1(170.70), S1 (169.90), S2 (169.50), S3(169.10).




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