NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for May 24, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

This will probably allow conservative trend traders to wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) (significant supply zone) for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7260.

On the other hand, If bearish momentum persists, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 24, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. This enhances the bearish scenario of the market.

If bearish momentum dominates, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) will be maintained to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1400 (the previously mentioned monthly key-level).

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) is now considered a prominent Supply zone to be watched for bearish rejection and possible SELL entries if any bullish pullback occurs.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for May 24, 2018

On Thursday, the following strong calendar news comes out:

- 8.00 London time. GBP, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Karni;

- 8.30 London time. GBP, the volume of retail sales (m / m) (Apr). The expected value is 0.8% compared to the previous value of -1.2%;

- 14.00 London time. USD, sales in the secondary housing market (Apr). The expected value is 5.56M compared to the previous value of 5.60M.

- 17.00 London time. GBP, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Karni.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Wednesday, the price moved down, reached the lower fractal of 1.3299 (red dotted line). On Thursday, it will most likely start rolling back with the first goal of 1.3460 (a retracement level of 14.6%). A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the GBP / USD pair moves upward with the first target of 1.3460 (the retracement level of 14.6%).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR / USD pair for May 24, 2018

On Thursday, the following strong calendar news comes out:

- 11.30 London time. EUR, publication of the minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy;

- 14.00 London time. USD, sales in the secondary housing market (Apr). the expected value is 5.56M compared to the previous value of 5.60M.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Wednesday, the price worked the downward rally, reaching the support line of the rising channel 1.1677 (white line). On Thursday, the downward movement will most likely start towards the first goal of 1.1805 (the retracement level of 14.6%). A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion.

On Thursday, the market will move upward to the first target of 1.1805 with a pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Review of GBP / JPY pair for the week of May 24 via simplified wave analysis

Wave picture of the chart D1:

The dominant trend on the daily scale of the cross plot is directed to the "north". The wave level of motion is very high, it allows ranking on the W1 scale. A correction was formed from the reversal zone in the recent months.

The wave pattern of the graph H1:

The last unfinished wave plot from April 13 is included in the structure of the larger downward wave zigzag on the N4 timeframe. Calculation of the preliminary target zone gives a reference point in the area of the 143rd price figure.

The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

Since May 18, a bearish wave is developing. Within its framework, a counter-corrective movement has been formed since yesterday, after which the downward trend will continue.

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Recommended trading strategy:

It is better to refrain from trading transactions in Medium-term and wait for the completion of the current decline. Supporters of the inter-trading style can tear off sales after the completion of an upward rollback.

Resistance zones:

- 147.80 / 148.30

Support zones:

- 146.30 / 145.80

- 143.70 / 143.20

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

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Global macro overview for 24/05/2018

Yesterday, FOMC Meeting Minutes confirmed the willingness of further gradual interest rate hikes by the Fed. The market is convinced that another 25 bp cost increase will take place in June. Thus, the process of monetary policy normalization would be continued. In the last statement, the Fed pointed to the symmetry of the inflation target. Yesterday's minutes revealed that the majority of FOMC members are ready to tolerate higher price dynamics for some time, which, given the slight wage pressure, may be an argument for three rather than four interest rate hikes this year. Attention was also paid to the need to change the language of the message and remove the phrase referring to the expansive attitude in monetary policy. Some Fed members believe that monitoring the shape of the yield curve of US bonds remains an important issue. The reverse yield curve can be an indicator that can signal the risk of occurrence.

In conclusion, the Fed is about to hike the interest rates in June. The question remains whether the Fed will hike again in September and in December or just in December? Nevertheless, the US Dollar should continue its appreciation across the board.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to make another local high at the level of 94.19 in overbought market conditions and despite the growing bearish divergence. The price is still trading inside of the channel and as long as the support zone between the levels of 93.21 - 93.11 is not cleary violated, the dominant bias is bullish.

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Global macro overview for 24/05/2018

On Wednesday, the Turkish central bank raised its rate known as the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) by 3 pp. Previously, it was 13.5%, from today it is 16.5%. Other rates remained unchanged. The decision was taken during an extraordinary meeting convened in connection with the worrying developments in Turkey, which are primarily the behavior of the Turkish currency. From the beginning of the year until this afternoon its value dropped against the dollar by nearly 20%. Particularly strong declines took place in the last three weeks. This was a reflection of political risks that have clearly increased in recent days in Turkey. The situation has become so serious that even rating agencies got interested in it.

"The statements of the Turkish president increase the chances for more discretionary economic policy, and the predictability of this policy will be under pressure after the June elections," Fitch Rating analysts published on Tuesday. This is an evident - and probably a long overdue - reaction to the economic lecture of Recep Erdogan last week in London.A similar but more specific warning was sent to the world by S&P rating agency analysts. In their view, Turkey's deteriorating balance of payments combined with the growing costs of oil and gas imports may hit the economic growth and the condition of the banking sector.

It is worth noting that the rate hike was not so sure, but apparently forced by the tragic situation on the lyre. The atmosphere around the monetary policy was already boosted by the Turkish leader. Erdogan said that high-interest rates are the cause of inflation. Meanwhile, there is a rare consensus among economists and investors that the reality is exactly the opposite: it is too low-interest rates to stimulate inflation.

Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the decision of the central bank, the USD/TRY rate fell over 3%, but the rate hike gave the breath of Turkish currency. Today's strong losses have been more than enough, but the lira is still close to 17% cheaper than the dollar at the beginning of the month. The market has managed to retrace 50% of the previous spike down and was so far capped at the level of 4.7322. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 4.8200 and then at the swing top at 4.9268. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 4.5367 and 4.4996.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/GBP for May 24, 2018

EUR/GBP has been struggling above the support area of 0.8700-50 area for some time now from where no definite trend pressure is being observed. Both EUR and GBP are struggling with the economic reports outcome which lead to certain indecision and volatility in the market.

Recently, the UK Inflation report hearing somehow helped the British currency to gain momentum against EUR. The Public Sector Net Borrowing increased to 6.2B from the previous figure of -0.8B but not meeting the target of 7.2B. It was also a positive factor for GBP. However, the CPI report was published with a slight decrease to 2.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.5%. It brought further indecision to the market. Today GBP Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.8% from the previous value of -1.2% and Bank of England Governor Carney is going to speak about the short-term interest rates and future monetary policies which is expected to have hawkish outcome.

On the other hand, today the Eurogroup meeting and the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are going to be held which is expected to inject volatility in the market. EUR has been also struggling with the recent economic reports whereas the upcoming Monetary Policy decision is expected to have greater impact on the gains on the EUR side in the coming days.

As of the current scenario, the market is expected to be quite volatile and corrective. After the daily close certain definiteness is expected in the market for the coming days. Though GBP is still moving indecisively after the recent CPI report, any negative outcome of the EUR economic events today will lead to impulsive gain on the GBP side in the future. To sum up, GBP is expected to have an upper hand over EUR if it fails to impress the market sentiment with better economic outcome in today's meetings.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the support area of 0.8700-50 while intersecting the dynamic level of 20 EMA in the process. The volatility in this pair is currently quite high and ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports today certain spikes may be observed in the market. As the price remains above 0.87 area, certain bullish pressure may be observed in the pair with target towards 0.90 area or else a break below 0.87 will lead to impulsive bearish pressure with target towards 0.85 in the future.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 24, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price did successful breakout of bearish flag, which is sign that sellers are in control. The MACD oscillator is confirm strong bearish momentum. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $6.962 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%).

Support/Resistance

$7.690 – Intraday resistance

$7.400– Intraday support

$6.960 – Objective target 1

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for May 24, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,295.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a broken downward channel in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence and potential finished (abc flat correction), which is another sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,302.80 and at the price of $1,311.25.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,298.40

R2: $1,303.60

R3: $1,309.35

Support levels:

S1: $1,288.54

S2: $1,282.75

S3: $1,278.15

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/JPY Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Plunge

GBP/JPY is approaching our resistance at 147.04 (Horizontal overlap resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) where we expect a further below this level to our support at 145.05 (horizontal swing low support). We do have to be cautious of our intermediate support at 145.96 (horizontal overlap support, 100% Fibonacci extension).

RSI (21) is also seeing a bearish exit and Ichimoku cloud is showing signs of bearish pressure, in line with our bearish view.

Sell below 147.04. Stop loss 147.65. Take profit at 145.05.

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BTC/USD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

John McAfee expects a bull run on cryptocurrency markets in the near future. Billions will be pumped by institutional investors, the internet security expert predicted in a post on the microblogging platform Twitter this week. McAfee claims this will lead to significant changes in the market capitalizations of the leading cryptocurrencies, but also those of most altcoins.

"Institutional investors are preparing to enter the cryptocurrency market with a vengeance," McAfee said in his tweet. He explained that they are generally long-term investors that will spend billions on the market. "Expect the top ten coins to go through the roof fairly quickly. The bulk of altcoins will soon follow," the software guru wrote.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically): BTC/USD is approaching its support at 7492 (horizontal pullback support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) where we expect price to bounce off and rise to its resistance at 8641(horizontal swing high resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching support and is seeing a bullish divergence in line with our bullish bias.

Buy above 7492. Stop loss at 7190. Take profit at 8641.

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Bitcoin analysis for 24/05/2018

The financial media reports, that India is working on legislation to ensure that cryptocurrency transactions are subject to value-added tax (GST).

According to anonymous sources, the Central Council of Indirect Taxes is considering applying a 18 percent tax on foreign exchange operations, which it would perceive as "intangible assets".

"The purchase or sale of cryptocurrencies should be treated as a supply of goods, and those that facilitate transactions, such as delivery, transfer, storage, accounting, etc., will be treated as services" - we read in the publication.

Until now, India has refrained from issuing rules on cryptocurrencies, despite the central bank's efforts to hinder businesses and citizens from interacting with them. In April, the Reserve Bank of India formally prohibited the operation of cryptocurrency enterprises to domestic institutions, which has not stopped the creation of new exchanges so far. If the taxation system comes into effect, it would mean a move towards the legality of the industry with a constant lack of iron regulations. If the buyers and sellers are in India, the transaction will be treated as a software delivery and the location of the buyer will be the place of delivery. [...] Transactions outside India will be subject to an integrated GST and will be treated as import or export of goods. IGST will be imposed on cross-border deliveries.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The Double ZigZag corrective structure has hit the projected target at the level of $7,441 and established a bottom for the corrective wave 2/B. In order to continue the bounce, the price should now move up towards the level of $7,712 and then $7,890. The golden trend line dynamic resistance is still the key line for bulls as any breakout through it will likely trigger a rally higher.

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Trading plan for 24/05/2018

Fears of trade wars are back, this time on the in form of uncertainty regarding the duties on cars and motor vehicles. This puts pressure on the Japanese stock market. Combined with the drop in US profitability, the 10-year-old clearly strengthens the yen. South Korea has confirmed that the fate of the Kim-Trump meeting in June is hanging by a thread. EUR/USD revolves around 1.17. GBP/USD is in the rebound to 1.34 after yesterday's fall to 1.33. AUD/USD is halfway between Tuesday's peak and yesterday's minimum, at 0.7560. USD/JPY after yesterday's breakdown and the unsuccessful return of over 110.30 returns to inheritance and violates yesterday's lows, thus falling at 109.50.

Yesterday's session at Wal Street ended with modest increases, but during the overnight Asian session, the contract for SP500 is down 0.3% and under 2725 points. Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng ended the day in the red as well. Due to Trump's reservations regarding the import of cars, the Tokyo Stock Exchange is under pressure as Nikkei 225 drops almost 1.5%.

On Thursday 24th of May, the event of the day is ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts release, but the economic calendar is full of important data releases. Germany will print GDP and GfK Consumer Climate data, ECB will issue Financial Stability Report, the Uk will post Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data and the US will present Existing Home Sales data and Unemployment Claims data. There are scheduled speeches from BoE Governor Mark Carney (twice), FOMC Member William Dudley, FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic and FOMC Member Patrick T. Harker later in the day.

GBP/USD analysis for 24/05/2018:

The Cable in the morning almost violated 1.3300. After a slightly lower than expected inflation data, the British currency deepens the weakness and the rate drops towards 1.3308. The core inflation and CPI (respectively 2.1% and 2.4% year-on-year with a consensus of 2.2 and 2.5% year-on-year) both disappointed the global investors. After the dovish withdrawal by the Bank of England from the hike in May, August is also threatened (at the moment the nearest real date of tightening policy parameters). The MPC move is so much included in prices that with weaker data and political chaos and Theresa May's weakening position, the pound should remain weak against other major currencies.

Please notice there are two scheduled speeches from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney today: 08:00 am GMT and 05.00 pm GMT and both are worth watching.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The recent low at the level of 1.3308 might be challenged soon again as the level of 1.3300 is an important technical support form the daily time frame (made on 2017.12.15). There should be some upward price reaction at the level, especially as the market conditions are now oversold and there is a growing bullish divergence present. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3391, but the key level for further growth is seen at the level of 1.3483.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD for May 24, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD daily chart has been presented here to look forward for the next potential move. The structure highlighted here and the subsequent price action till now is suggesting that EUR/USD should be set for a temporary counter trend rally towards the 1.1950/1.2000 handle, before continuing lower again towards 1.1500 levels and lower. As seen yesterday, the single currency pair has taken off a major support around 1.1717 levels and to go by the simple law, prices should pullback from current levels. Prices resistance comes in near 1.1990 levels while the 0.382 percent fibonacci resistance is seen around 1.1957 levels as shown here. This should be the next lower high, before EUR/USD proceeds further lower towards 1.1500 levels going forward. Looking at the wave counts, the EUR/USD looks to have either completed wave (3) or is into its wave 4. In either cases, we should witness a rally from current levels pushing through 1.1950/1.2000 levels.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders please go long with stop below 1.1675 levels targeting 1.1950/60. Conservative traders please remain flat for now and look to sell around 1.1950/60 levels again.

Fundamental outlook:

GBP Carney and Dudley speak at BoE Markets Forum in London at 03:00 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Euro buyers should try very hard

The US dollar lost a number of positions against the euro and the British pound after the report of the May meeting of the Federal Reserve System was published. Despite the fact that the representatives of the Federal Reserve spoke in favor of raising interest rates, the report of experts from the Federal Reserve spoke about a more restrained outlook.

In the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed, the leaders came to the conclusion that the next increase in interest rates would be expedient in the near future but there were no clear deadlines. Also, the leaders of the Federal Reserve did not say anything about the number of interest rate increases planned this year, as investors were more interested in this issue. The next increase in rates has already taken into account the current exchange rate of the US dollar, so serious growth has not occurred.

Fed executives also considered the possibility of abandoning the soft tone in the statement and voiced different views on tightening policies in the medium term. The analysis, as a whole, was a question of the necessity of further raising the rates, so as not to cause overheating of the economy.

In the minutes, it was possible to find a forecast on the growth rates of US GDP in the second quarter of this year, which should be higher after a slowdown in the first quarter. Experts expect that US GDP growth will exceed potential growth in 2020.

As for inflation, the managers revised it with a slight increase in the short-term forecast against the background of incoming data. It is expected that inflation will slightly exceed the target level of 2%.

As for risks, they continue to be in the fiscal and trade policies that the White House is currently leading. It is these factors that contribute to uncertainty.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, much will depend on the behavior of buyers at current lows. If we manage to stay above the level of 1.1700 before the end of the week, this will allow us to expect a larger upward correction to the resistance area 1.1750 and 1.1790, where sellers will return to the market again. If, in the next few days, trade in the EURUSD moves to the support level of 1.1690, the pressure on the euro will increase again, which will lead to a new wave of a downtrend with the update of the levels of 1.1630 and 1.1600.

Today, attention should be paid to weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US. It is expected to grow by 220,000 after 222,000 the previous week.

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin for May 24, 2018

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On the 4 hour chart, bitcoin is moving in a bearish bias. The cryptocurrency is moving in a down slope channel and the moving average is above the price. For now, the #BTC seems to be correcting and it is going to re-test the support turned into resistance level at the 7,887.96, after touching the lower level of the down slope channel. Unless the price stops the correction and closes above 8,553.20, the bearish bias will continue.

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Fractal analysis: GOLD as of May 24

Forecast for May 24:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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For Gold, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1308.97, 1304.79, 1301.72, 1297.61, 1295.70, 1288.63, 1285.92, 1284.19 and 1279.32. Here, the price has formalized the potential initial conditions for the top of May 21. Continued development of the upward trend is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 1295.70 - 1297.61. In this case, the target is 1301.72. In the area of 1301.72 - 1304.79 is short-term upward movement and also consolidation. The potential value for the upward structure from May 21 is the level of 1308.97. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Departure towards correction is possible after the breakdown of 1288.63. Here, the target is 1285.92. From this level, there is a high probability of a turn upwards. The range of 1285.92 - 1284.19 is the key support for the upward structure. Passing the price will lead to the development of the main downward trend. Here, the target is 1279.32.

The main trend is the formation of the potential for the top of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1297.61 Take profit: 1301.70

Buy 1304.80 Take profit: 1308.60

Sell: 1288.60 Take profit: 1286.00

Sell: 1284.00 Take profit: 1279.60

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Control zones GBP/USD 24.05.18

The GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward medium-term model. All attempts at growth are limited to control zones, where supply increases and the fall resumes. Today's resistance is NKZ 1/4 1.3383-1.3376. As long as the pair is trading below this zone, the main target of the decline is the NKZ 1/2 1.3284-1.3270 which is located within the monthly control zone of May. The coincidence of zones indicates a high probability of increasing large demand in their test. The fixation of the entire short positions will be optimal when entering the limits of the monthly control zone.

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For the formation of the correctional model of the higher level, a breakdown and fixation above the NKZ 1/4 is necessary. This will open the way for growth to the next resistance of the NKZ 1/2 of 1.3462-1.3448 that will test to determine the priority for the next week. To continue the downward movement, it will be sufficient to keep the price below the level of 1.3462 at American sessions. If the closure of one of the Chicago sessions occurs above the NKZ 1/2, the entire downward medium-term model will be considered complete and a deep correction model and the formation of a new market phase will begin.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of May 24

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, the continuation of the movement downwards is expected after the breakdown of 1.1684. For the GBP / USD pair, we have expanded the potential for downward movement towards the level of 1.3195. For the USD / CHF pair, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure. We expect the continuation of the movement downwards after the breakdown of 0.9915. For the USD / JPY pair, the price forms a downward structure from May 21. For the EUR / JPY pair, the price forms a downward structure from May 22. For the GBP / JPY pair, the price forms a local downward structure from May 18. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown at the level of 145.85.

Forecast for May 24:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1835, 1.1807, 1.1768, 1.1735, 1.1684, 1.1640 and 1.1575. Here, the continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1684. In this case, the target is 1.1640. At this level is the consolidation of the price. Passing the price should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the potential target of 1.1575.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.1735-1.1768. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1807. The range of 1.1807-1.1835 is the key support for the downward trend. Before reaching this level, we expect the initial conditions for the top to be formalized.

The main trend is the local structure for the bottom of May 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1735 Take profit: 1.1765

Buy 1.1770 Take profit: 1.1807

Sell: 1.1682 Take profit: 1.1642

Sell: 1.1638 Take profit: 1.1577

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3462, 1.3415, 1.3388, 1.3326, 1.3285, 1.3229 and 1.3195. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure of May 14. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3326. In this case, the target is 1.3285. In the area of 1.3326 - 1.3285 is the consolidation of the price. We consider the level of 1.3195 to be a potential value for the downward trend. After reaching this level, we expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.3229 - 1.3195, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term uptrend is possible in the area of 1.3388 - 1.3415. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3462. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle from May 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3388 Take profit: 1.3415

Buy: 1.3417 Take profit: 1.3460

Sell: 1.3324 Take profit: 1.3287

Sell: 1.3283 Take profit: 1.3230

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9996, 0.9965, 0.9950, 0.9915, 0.9881, 0.9854 and 0.9820. Here, we continue to follow the downward cycle from May 10. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9915. In this case, the target is 0.9881. In the area of 0.9881 - 0.9854 is short-term downward movement as well as the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.9820. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.9950 - 0.9965. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9996. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure from May 10, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9950 Take profit: 0.9964

Buy: 0.9967 Take profit: 0.9992

Sell: 0.9913 Take profit: 0.9883

Sell: 0.9878 Take profit: 0.9855

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 110.70, 110.26, 109.98, 109.42, 109.09, 108.84 and 108.14. Here, the price forms the initial conditions for the downward cycle of May 21. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 109.40. In this case, the target is 109.09. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. Passing the price of the noise range at 109.09 - 108.84 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 108.14.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 109.98 - 110.26. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 110.70. This level is the key support for the downward structure from May 21.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the downward movement of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.98 Take profit: 110.24

Buy: 110.28 Take profit: 110.70

Sell: 109.40 Take profit: 109.10

Sell: 108.82 Take profit: 108.16

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key H1 scale levels are: 1.2984, 1.2922, 1.2853, 1.2731, 1.2671 and 1.2633. Here, we follow the formation of a downward structure from May 8. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2731. In this case, the target is 1.2671. In the range of 1.2671 - 1.2633 is the consolidation of the price.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2853 - 1.2922. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.2984.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from May 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2855 Take profit: 1.2920

Buy: 1.2924 Take profit: 1.2982

Sell: 1.2730 Take profit: 1.2671

Sell: Take profit:

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7711, 0.7687, 0.7650, 0.7622, 0.7557, 0.7534 and 0.7496. Here, we follow the upward cycle from May 15. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7590. Here, the first target is 0.7622. In the area of 0.7622 - 0.7650 is short-term upward movement as well as the consolidation of the price. The breakdown at the level of 0.7650 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement towards the level of 0.7687. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.7711. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7557 - 0.7534. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7496. This level is the key support for the upward trend.

The main trend is the local upward structure of May 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7590 Take profit: 0.7620

Buy: 0.7624 Take profit: 0.7650

Sell: 0.7555 Take profit: 0.7536

Sell: 0.7532 Take profit: 0.7500

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For the EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 130.15, 129.47, 128.95, 127.96, 127.52, 127.03 and 125.87. Here, the price forms a downward structure from May 22. Short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 127.96 - 127.52. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement towards the level of 127.03. Expressed development of traffic is expected after the breakdown of 127.00. Here, the potential target is 125.87. Near this level, we expect the consolidation of the price.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 128.95 - 129.47. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 130.15. This level is the key support for the downward structure from May 22.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from May 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.95 Take profit: 129.45

Buy: 129.50 Take profit: 130.15

Sell: 127.50 Take profit: 127.05

Sell: 127.00 Take profit: 125.90

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 148.35, 147.50, 146.82, 145.89, 144.89, 144.29 and 142.73. Here, we follow the formation of the local downward structure of May 18. The continuation of the movement downwards is expected after the breakdown of 145.89. In this case, the target is 144.89. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. Passing the price of the noise range at 144.89 - 144.29 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the potential target of 142.73. From this level, we expect a rollback upward.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 146.82 - 147.50. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 148.35. This level is the key support for the downward structure from May 18.

The main trend is the formation of a local structure for the bottom of May 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.82 Take profit: 147.50

Buy: 147.55 Take profit: 148.35

Sell: 145.85 Take profit: 144.90

Sell: 144.25 Take profit: 142.90

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar strengthens everyday

EUR / USD

The euro continues to fall unexpectedly. Over the past 6 weeks, the decline further lower than 750 points and reaches the levels of July last year this time. The rate of decline corresponds to previous review in August 2014, when the eurozone crisis was spiraling upward on the spearhead with Greece and Cyprus. Now, we see a situation almost similar since the US is in conflict with Europe, Russia, Syria, Iran, North Korea, China and even Mexico and Canada at the same time. And, it is the regulated growth of the dollar on the basis of geopolitical tensions which is the main reason for the ongoing processes in Forex. Above all, like the growth of bond yields, macroeconomic indicators, dollar restriction and other reasons are secondary important although important and interrelated, and, if necessary, breaking traditional correlations. The political and economic struggle in the US happened against the backdrop of a strong dollar, as Trump spoke about in his election campaign and which became the talk for about the past six months. A number of inconsistencies and internal obstacles in the US itself, including the struggle with Trump of forces opposing it, have postponed this large-scale plan for several months. In the medium and long term, we are expecting the euro at 1.01 up to 0.8350, as mentioned in the May 14 article"Long-term perspective of the euro".

Yesterday, investors' moods to sell the euro increased with the release of unfavorable economic data for the single currency. The business activity index in the service sector (Services PMI) of the euro area for May showed a decrease from 54.7 (revised down from 55.0) to 53.9. While Manufacturing PMI declined from 56.2 to 55.5 versus expectations of 56.1. On the contrary, the US Services PMI increased from 54.6 (revised upward from 54.4) to 55.7, and Manufacturing PMI increased from 56.5 to 56.6 (at the forecast level). The consumer confidence index of the euro area in May remained at zero level. US sales of new homes in April amounted to 662 thousand against expectations of 680 thousand, but the mood of investors for sales was already strong.

The Fed's FOMC minutes of meeting to be released late in the evening confirmed that the rate will be raised in June ("... continue ... raising rates"), however, the markets along without additional statement presented a 100% rate hike at the nearest meeting, the quotes failed to achieve.

Today, Germany's GDP will be released for the first quarter in the 2nd assessment, with the forecast remained unchanged at 0.3%. The consumer climate index in Germany GfK for June is also expected to be unchanged at 10.8 points. At 12:30 PM London time, FOMC minutes will be issued from the last ECB meeting. But, investors with even greater confidence do not expect to see new information.

In the United States, the number of applications for unemployment benefits for last week is expected at 220,000 compared with 222,000 earlier. The house price index for March is expected to be 0.5% after 0.6% in February. Sales of homes in the secondary real estate market in April are forecasted by 5.56 million versus 5.60 million in March. The mood for euro sales is secured.

We are expecting for the single currency at 1.1600.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

In the gloomy London, the fog thickens

GBP / USD

In the United Kingdom, inflation indicators continued to put pressure on investor sentiment. The base CPI in April fell from 2.3% YoY to 2.1% YoY, with the expectation of a slight decline to 2.2% YoY. The total CPI fell from 2.5% YoY to 2.4% YoY, while expecting for its retention at the same level. The producer price index at the entrance gained 0.4% only in April against the forecast of 1.0% M/M. The producer price index at the output coincided with the expectation of 0.3% M/M. Retail prices in April increased to the expected 3.4% YoY against 3.3% YoY a month earlier. While housing prices fell from 4.4% YoY to 4.2% YoY. The balance of retail sales by CBI for May showed growth from -2 to 11 with the expectation of 4. The dollar index grew by 0.44% but under its additional pressure the pound sterling fell by 82 points.

Today, retail sales data for April will be published with 0.8% forecast against -1.2% in March. Against the background of the previous decline, the expected increase does not look very good. At 9:00 AM London time, Mark Carney will make a short speech at the Markets Forum 2018 event. Even if he talked about the monetary policy, he is unlikely to be optimistic after his speech in parliament and the latest economic data. Later at 8:10 PM London time, Carney will speak at the annual dinner of professional economists in London, where the exciting topic can already be touched. But here again, we do not expect any change in the tone of his speech.

We are looking forward to the decline of the pound sterling in the range of 1.3225 / 45.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 24, 2018

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As we can see on the 4 hour chart, USD/CHF is now moving in a bearish bias. This condition has already been shown by the price which is moving in a down slope channel with the moving average above the price. For now, after USD/CHF has already touched the upper channel, it will likely go to test the previous support level at 0.9893. Unless the pair breaksout and closes above 0.9977, it will continue going down.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning Forecast 05/24/2018

Burning Forecast 05/24/2018

EURUSD: We are waiting for a strong upward rebound.

On Wednesday, May 23, the Fed issued a report from the last meeting. Analysts now estimate almost a 100% likelihood of a rate hike at the next meeting of the Fed on June 13. However, this fact could not give the dollar a new impetus for growth. The dollar is trying to grow, but success is minimal. This indicates the need for a strong pullback in the dollar, if not a reversal.

Buy the euro from 1.1835, stop 1.1790, profit 1.2000.

There is no right level for selling the euro yet.

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Predictable "Australian"

AUD / USD

Yesterday, the Australian dollar was down to 15 points under pressure from the US dollar. The iron ore (0.55%), copper (1.45%) and a number of other important goods for the Australian economy. While oil was declined by an average of 0.4% and gold fell by 0.35%.

Completed construction work in Australia in the first quarter showed an increase of 0.2% only against expectations of 1.1%. The positive indicator was the index of leading economic indicators from MI for March, which showed an increase of 0.2% against -0.1% a month earlier.

Today, an excellent data from New Zealand was released which indirectly help maintain the "Australian" currency. The trade balance of New Zealand in April was $ 263 million against the forecast of 200 million-156 million in March. But today, the United States expects moderately positive data, in particular, the number of applications for unemployment benefits expected at 220 thousand against 222 thousand earlier, and the house price index for March is expected to increase by 0.5%. Raw indices visually showed a downward turn (clearly expressed in terms of gas, which is also an important export component of Australia). We are expecting for the price's return to 0.7440.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Not a single BRENT: The Canadian dollar refuses to follow oil

The oil market feels very confident. A barrel of Brent crude oil is traded in the area of $ 79, while WTI fluctuates around 72 points. Aggravated relations between the US and Iran, as well as the results of elections in Venezuela give impetus to oil quotes, but not all commodity currencies take advantage of the current situation.

In particular, the Canadian dollar has recently weakened and weaker correlations with the oil market. Despite the steady growth of "black gold", the Canadian demonstrates contradictory dynamics, especially in tandem with the US dollar. This situation is due to several fundamental factors. We will analyze each of them.

The oil market, of course, plays an important role for the Canadian economy. But now, the national currency actually ignores the growth of quotations. This is primarily due to concerns of traders about possible failures in the transportation of "black gold" from Canada to the United States. The fact is that Americans are the main buyer of Canadian oil, so the question of infrastructure is the key. In turn, one of the routes, the Enbridge Line 3 pipeline is obsolete (it was built almost 60 years ago), in connection with which it was required to replace it. Due to its unsatisfactory technical condition, it operates only 45% of its capacity.

However, against the large-scale reconstruction worth 2.6 billion dollars were made by American ecologists and representatives of Indian tribes. Enbridge Energy spends millions of dollars lobbying this project, but the situation is still in limbo. In late April, the Minnesota Court adopted a positive, but not final decision for the oil industry. The judge only recommended that the appropriate regulator approve the replacement of the pipeline along this route.

Earlier in the US, a bill was passed that allowed Enbridge to build a new route without the approval of the regulator. But Governor of Minnesota Mark Dayton vetoed this bill the day before yesterday. Now, Canadians are waiting for an important verdict of the Minnesota Public Service (PUC). In June, officials should approve or prohibit large-scale construction. If the decision is in favor of Canadians, then the pipeline after reconstruction will restore its original capacity, almost 800 thousand barrels per day. However, according to some experts, the regulator can take the side of ecologists and Indian tribes through whose territory the oil route passes. On the scale of the global oil market, this factor has little effect on the situation, but the pair USD / CAD reacts quite sharply to this uncertainty.

Moreover, not only this fundamental factor negatively affects the rate of the Canadian currency. Recently it became known that the deficit of trade in goods in Canada rose to a record 17.6 billion Canadian dollars due to increased trade gaps with the EU and the PRC.

Another factor of uncertainty is related to the long-suffering negotiations on NAFTA (ie, the North American Free Trade Agreement). Dialogue again came to a standstill, Canadians and Mexicans took a time-out to study the new proposals of the American side. At the same time, the "deadline" is coming soon. The negotiators should come at least to some compromise in the coming month, because on July 1 in Mexico, the pre-election presidential race begins, and then in November there will be elections to the US Congress.

It should be noted that the parties are discussing the revision of the Agreement for almost a year, so they are unlikely to come to a common denominator within the next five weeks. Just the day before yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that in this issue "the main points remain unresolved", despite the general desire to find a compromise.

The Bank of Canada, in turn, repeatedly stressed its focus on the uncertainty surrounding the NAFTA. According to Stephen Poloz, the protracted negotiations reduce the investment climate in the country, negatively affecting the dynamics of GDP growth.

The above circumstances neutralize the effect of rising oil prices. Without any "own arguments" for growth, the Canadian has to follow the US dollar, which again demonstrates strength throughout the market (with the exception of the pair USD / JPY, due to the renewed uncertainty about the US-China trade talks). The minutes of the May meeting of the Federal Reserve published today may give impetus to the Greenback if its tone turns out to be a "hawk" against the background of the uncertain rhetoric of the accompanying statement. In this case, the pair USD / CAD will approach the March price maximum of 1.2950.

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Technically, the pair continues to be in the bright north trend. This is confirmed by the main trend indicators, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and Bollinger Bands. So, the indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo formed a bullish signal "parade lines", and Bollinger Bands is in the narrowed channel, with the price almost touched its top line. The immediate goal of the northern movement is the upper line of the above indicator, which corresponds to the level of 1.2950. If bulls USD / CAD overcome and are fixed above this level, the path will be opened to the area of 30 figures.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The daily review of the currency pair GBP / JPY for May 23, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

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GBP / JPY

As expected, the bears' offensive held back support for short-term trends (daytime Tenkan 148.71 + monthly Tenkan 148.88), their passage led to an active decline. At the lower timeframes, the passed levels formed today a strengthened zone of resistance (148.70-95), joining forces with clouds H4 and H1. The aim and main goal of the reduction is still the breakdown of the upper boundary of the weekly cloud (Senkou Span A 147.66) and the recovery of the downtrend (maximum extremum 147.03). In addition, a downward target was formed for the breakdown of the H4 cloud (146.42-77). The passage of these landmarks and reliable anchoring below will open the prospect of descent to the lower boundary of the weekly cloud (Senkou Span B 144.48), strengthened by the monthly medium-term trend (144.34).

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Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump is not ready to fully reconcile with China

Yesterday's speech by US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and statements made by US President Donald Trump led to a new wave of strengthening the US dollar against a number of world currencies. Also, many investors are now waiting for the publication of the minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve System, where special attention will be paid to the further terms of raising interest rates, as well as their number. The basic calculation is still at least two more increases this year. A number of representatives of the Fed also this week also spoke for three increases this year, manipulating good inflation data and a labor market that has reached historical levels.analytics5b052579cbc25.png

As I noted above, the US Treasury Secretary said yesterday that the White House will impose primary and secondary sanctions against Iran. However, the main issue concerned trade duties and relations with China.

According to Mnuchin, as for the Chinese company ZTE, the goal was not to dislodge this company from the business, but only to subject it to sanctions. It should be noted that, despite the preliminary agreement in part of this company, duties on the import of steel and aluminum will remain in force for China.

Mnuchin also said that the US president has a very strong position with regard to trade and national security, and deficits are something that requires special attention, along with economic growth.

Following the speech of the Minister of Finance, the US President made a number of statements, which, as a rule, were of an uncertain nature, but were interpreted by traders in favor of the US dollar.

Trump said that there was no final agreement with ZTE, and that he was not satisfied with the trade negotiations with China, adding that this was only the beginning. The US President also put forward demands that the company ZTE should change its leader and buy more American goods. Also, Trump is ready to impose a very large fine in respect of ZTE in the amount of 1-1.3 billion dollars.

Yesterday, there were also rumors that the US president plans to reduce the export of steel and aluminum from the EU to the US by 10%, which is good news for the European Union.

The results of the Fed's poll, according to which most Americans see stable improvements in their financial situation in the future, were also positive in the market. Many people are also optimistic about the labor market and their employment prospects.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for May 23. UK problems continue to put pressure on the pound

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the Monday's trading, the GBP / USD currency pair attempted to design a corrective wave, but very quickly returned to the decline, having lost about 80 percentage points from the high of the day and continues to build a bearish wave a, 1. The fundamental data from the UK continue to put pressure on the pound sterling, thus giving the chance to sell the currency pair again and again, which leads to an even greater complication of the wave a, 1, whose goals are still near the calculated mark of 1.3300. If the flow of the negative from Britain weakens slightly, then from the 33 figures, a correction set of waves can start.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3528 - 127.2% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

1.3555 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.3300 - 161.8% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

1.3300 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The tool continues to complicate the internal wave structure of the assumed wave a, 1 downward trend section. Therefore, I recommend selling the pair with a target located near the estimated mark of 1.3300, which corresponds to 161.8% and 261.8% of Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to reach the 1.3300 mark will warn of the instrument's readiness to build an upward wave (or set of waves) and will allow to form purchases with the first targets located around 1.3528 and 1.3555, which is equivalent to 127.2% and 200.0% of Fibonacci.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for May 23. Optimism against the dollar persists

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Analysis of wave counting:

The five-wave structure in wave c, 2, still looks fully staffed. However, given the continued optimism of the markets against the dollar, it is possible that the internal wave structure of the wave c, 2 will be even more complicated. A successful attempt to break through 161.8% of Fibonacci of wave 4. Otherwise, the pair can go to the construction of a horizontal triangle, since there is not enough force to build a more convincing upward set of waves.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1715 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

1.1649 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.1636 - 261.8% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1835 - 200.0% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Almost perfectly worked out the calculated mark of 1.1835, which corresponds to 200.0% of the Fibonacci, the currency pair began to decline again. It is unequivocal to note the resumption of the construction of the downward trend section is now impossible, so I recommend considering the formation of purchases with targets near the mark of 1.1835. The breakthrough of 1.1715 will warn of the readiness to complicate the wave 5, c. In this case, I recommend returning to the sales of the pair with targets located near the marks of 1.1649 and 1.1636.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. The daily review of the currency pair GBP / USD for May 23, 2018

On Wednesday, the following strong calendar news comes out:

- 09.30 London time. GBP, consumer price index (CPI) (y / y) (Apr), waiting for 2.5%, the previous value was 2.5%;

- 15.00 London time. USD, sales of new housing (Apr), waiting for 680K, the previous value was 694K;

- 15.30 London time. USD, stocks of crude oil, are waiting for -1.567M, the previous value was -1.404M;

- 19.00 London time. USD, the publication of the FOMC protocols.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Tuesday, the price worked in the side channel. On Wednesday, the market can continue to move down, with the first goal of 1.3299, the bottom fractal (red dotted line). The complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candle analysis - neutral;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, on the GBP / USD pair, the downward movement with the first target of 1.3299 is the bottom fractal (red dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. The daily review of the currency pair EUR / USD for May 23, 2018

On Wednesday, the following strong calendar news comes out:

- 08.30 London time. EUR, PMI in Germany (May), are waiting for 57.9, the previous value was 58.1;

- 15.00 London time. USD, sales of new housing (Apr), waiting for 680K, the previous value was 694K;

- 15.30 London time. USD, stocks of crude oil, are waiting for -1.567M, the previous value was -1.404M;

- 19.00 London time. USD, the publication of the FOMC protocols.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Tuesday, the price worked a small bottom in the side channel. On Wednesday, the market with a high probability can re-test the support line of the rising channel for its penetration. The line of support of the ascending channel (1.700) and the market will aspire there. The complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - upwards;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion.

On Wednesday, the market will move down, to the first target of 1.1700, the support line (white line), after which it is possible to go up. Strong news can contribute.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for May 23, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,298.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a broken ending diagonal in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a broken intraday bullish flag, which is another sign of strength. On the MACD oscillator, I found a hidden bullish divergence. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,302.70 and at the price of $1,311.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,293.00

R2: $1,294.00

R3: $1,296.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,289.50

S2: $1,288.40

S3: $1,286.60

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for May 23, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3346. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a breakout of support trendline in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.3315 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.3210.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.3483R2: 1.3526R3: 1.3560 Support levels: S1: 1.3405S2: 1.3370S3: 1.3327

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for May 23, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $7.772 and met my yesterday's target. The Chilean president, Mario Marcel, has made comment seemingly in favor of developing a regulatory apparatus for virtual currencies. The apparent openness to regulating cryptocurrencies contrasts significantly from the recent banking embargo targeting virtual currency, recently witnessed in Chile. The technical picture on Bitcoin looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that the price broke support trendline in the background. I also found a breakout of intraday bearish flag, which is another sign of weakness. The MACD oscillator is showing weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportuinties. The downward targets are set at the price of $7.566 and at the price of $6.962.

Support/Resistance

$7.920 – Intraday resistance

$7.770– Intraday support

$7.565 – Objective target 1

$6.962 – Objective target 2

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Trading plan for the European session of GBP / USD pair on May 23

To open long positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

Only the formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.3391 will be a signal to buy the pound. In a different scenario, the new long positions of GBP / USD pair are best seen after the update of the next lows around 1.3366 and 1.3335. However, the entire calculation in the morning will be on good inflation data, which can return the pound to the resistance levels of 1.3418 and 1.3446.

To open short positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

A break and consolidation below 1.3391 will be a good signal to sell the pound in expectation of renewing new lows in the area of 1.3366 and 1.3335, where fixing profits are recommended. In case of GBP / USD growth in the first half of the day, you can search for sales on a false breakout from 1.3418, or on a rebound from 1.3446.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 23, 2018

EUR/JPY

The situation on this market is quite similar to what is happening on the USD/JPY pair. The strong pullback in the market (the current bearish breakout) has already put an end to the recent ranging situation on the market. About 300 pips have been shed from the high of this week, and this is simply the beginning.

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There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the downside and the RSI period 14 is already below the level 50. Further bearish movement is really anticipated.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 23, 2018

USD/JPY

The market got corrected lower on Monday, and that has now become something significant. From the high of Monday, the market has experienced about a 180-pip pullback, and that has resulted in serious threat to the recent bullish bias on the market. If the market goes further downwards by another 100 pips, the outlook on the market would turn completely bearish.

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There will soon be a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which makes long trades not yet advisable. The EMA 11 would soon cross the EMA 56 to the downside and the RSI period 14 is already below the level 50.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for May 23, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains recently inside the corrective range between the 129.50 to 132.00 area. Despite the worse economic reports today, certain gain on the JPY side does indicate the weakness of EUR in the process ahead of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts tomorrow.

Today, JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 52.5 from the previous figure of 53.8 which was expected to be at 53.6 and All Industry Activity report was also published with a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at 0.1%.

On the EUR side, today French Flash Manufacturing PMI report increased to 55.1 from the previous figure of 53.8, French Flash Services PMI decreased to 54.3 from the previous figure of 57.4, German Flash Manufacturing PMI decreased to 56.8 from the previous figure of 58.1, and German Flash Services PMI decreased to 52.1 from the previous figure of 53.0. Moreover, today EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI decreased to 55.5 from the previous figure of 56.2 and Flash Services PMI decreased to 53.9 which was expected to be unchanged at 54.7.

As of the current scenario, EUR economic reports have mostly negative results today, whereas JPY has already been gaining. Until EUR comes up with better economic development outcomes and better monetary policies tomorrow at ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, JPY is expected to dominate EUR further.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 129.50 with recent bearish impulsive pressure which is expected to continue further in the coming days. Though the bearish pressure is still quite strong which might lead to continuation of the pressure, but certain pullback towards 129.50 is expected before the price continues to move lower towards the 128.00 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 132.00, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 23, 2018

USD/CHF

The bearish signal that was generated on the USD/CHF pair yesterday, resulted in a medium-term bearish bias on the market. The market is below the resistance levels at 0.9950, now very close to the support level at 0.9900, which is the first target. Once the support level is breached to the downside, the next target will be the support level at 0.9850.

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There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the 4-hour chart, and that has brought about a bearish signal. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold region. Further bearish movement is a strong possibility.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for May 23, 2018

USD/CAD has been correcting itself below the 1.2950 area, from where it is expected to push lower in the coming days. The market is currently quite volatile and indecisive, whereas both currencies in the pair are struggling with the mixed economic reports recently.

Ahead of the FOMC Meeting today, USD is currently showing some impulsive gains over CAD which is expected to get definiteness after the Fed Chair Powell speaks about the upcoming interest rate decisions and monetary policies this Friday. Though there are certain chances of USD to increase its interest rates in the coming months which might lead to further gain on the USD side in future. Today, ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, USD New Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 680k from the previous figure of 694k and Crude Oil Inventories report is expected to decrease to -2.5M from the previous figure of -1.4M.

On the other hand, today there are no impactful economic reports or events to be published on the CAD side, but tomorrow Corporate Profits report is going to be published which is expected to increase from the previous value of -1.9%.

As of the current scenario, USD high impact economic reports to be published today is expected to inject some volatility in the market which might lead to certain definiteness in the pair. This week, CAD do not have any impactful economic reports to support its gains against USD, whereas upcoming momentum in this pair is fully depended upon the upcoming high impact economic events of USD to be published. To sum up, USD is expected to gain momentum over CAD in the coming days, if the upcoming high impact economic events turns out to have better outcomes.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing just below the 1.2900-50 area, if it is broken above in the coming days with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected with target towards the 1.3120 area in the future. Though the price is still correcting below the 1.29 area along with certain bearish volumes as per MACD histograms, there are certain chances of bearish pressure in the pair. As the price remains below 1.29 with a daily close, certain bearish pressure is expected in this pair in the future.

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