Trump threatens Iran

Trump threatens Iran.

Background: During the reign of US President Obama, a "nuclear deal" was concluded on which Iran refuses to work on the creation of an atomic bomb and delivery vehicles (strategic missiles). In exchange for the lifting of sanctions, including financial transactions and the sale of oil. This deal worked out, Iran withdrew sanctions and Iran sells oil in large quantities.

Further, under President Trump, the US announced that a nuclear deal was unprofitable for the United States that Iran was in compliance with the deal and the US withdrew from the deal and demanded that other countries stop cooperating with Iran by threatening them with sanctions from the US (with the US allies, Germany and France, against breaking the deal with Iran).

The current situation, at the weekend, Iran's spiritual leader Khamenei said that Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz if Iran was banned from supplying oil to the world market. "If Iran is blocked by the sale of oil, other countries in the region will not be able to sell oil either."

Trump's answer in an all caps tweet to Iranian president Rouhani: "NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS! "

"NEVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES, OR YOU GET SUCH IMPACTS WHICH A LITTLE HISTORY OF EVERYTHING HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED BEFORE." WE ARE MORE NOT THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE YOUR CRAZY WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAREFUL! "

In fact, this is a threat of a military strike in the event of Iran's military actions (the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz).

We are waiting for the development of the situation.

Oil opened Monday with a gap down by $ 2. Note that in recent weeks Trump has proposed that the allies open the sale of oil from reserves in order to prevent price increases. Iran in response to this proposal said that it is enough to stop attacking Iran and its oil sales will cover the needs of the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets are again feverish

The new week in world markets starts again with uncertain dynamics in the foreign exchange markets, which, on the one hand, is due to the criticism of D. Trump of the Fed's position regarding the course of the normalization of monetary policy, and on the other hand, the uncertainty factor that is generated by trade wars and the actions of the very same American president.

The statement by D. Trump that the European Union and China are manipulating the euro and yuan exchange rates, which is damaging to the US economy, has again agitated the financial markets. Against this background, trades in Europe are taking place in the morning in negative territory, but the Chinese stock market has closed in positive territory, supported by the policy of low-interest rates and the local currency rate, which positively affects the ability of the Chinese commodity producer to compete successfully in world markets.

In the currency markets on Monday, there is no noticeable dynamics in the major currency pairs where the US dollar is present, but the currencies of emerging economies are supported. So, today the Russian ruble is confidently rising in the morning against the euro and the dollar by more than half a percent. It is likely that this dynamics will continue, while, on the one hand, crude oil prices will remain at local highs, "not understanding" where to go because of different signals that do not allow them to grow or not to fall. On the other hand, the expectation that the CBR will not change the level of interest rates, while maintaining the main interest rate at around 7.25% because of the risk of inflation, supports the ruble. Previously, it was believed that the Russian regulator could, despite the difficult political situation around the country, as well as economic problems, decide to further reduce the cost of borrowing to stimulate domestic economic growth.

Another important event of this week will be the ECB meeting on monetary policy. There are also no changes expected. It can be assumed that if the bank, leaving interest rate levels, again signals about the desire not to rush with a change in the monetary policy, the euro-currency will put under pressure, primarily to the dollar.

In general, we continue to expect the continuation of the overall lateral dynamics in the currency markets.

Forecast of the day:

The pair EUR / USD is trading under the level of 1.1745, and unable to overcome it. We believe that the pair will continue to move further in the range before the ECB meeting with its likely decline to 1.1670.

The pair USD / JPY is trading near the resistance level of the short-term uptrend. The breakthrough of the level of 111.00 and the consolidation below it on the wave of tension growth may lead to a further decline of the pair to 110.25.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 23rd of July. The US president continues to excite financial markets

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 76p - 200p - 110p - 125p - 145p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 131n (129p).

On the last trading day of the week, the topic of the British Brexit was left in the background. A huge amount of new and interesting information came from the US leader Trump. At times this information is even contradictory and discouraging. But first things first. To begin with, Trump threatens to impose duties on all goods from China. Secondly, it is going to introduce duties on the German automotive industry. Thirdly, he criticized the plan of Theresa May for Brexit, criticized the EU for dishonest trade with the States and small contributions to NATO. Fourth, he began to criticize not only his opponents on the international scene, but also the representatives of his own country. So a flurry of criticism also fell on the Fed and Jerome Powell. Trump believes that tightening monetary policy increases the dollar, which adversely affects the servicing of US public debt. But in his characteristic manner, after criticism, Trump noted that he respects Powell and the Fed. A little earlier, Jerome Powell himself described his experiences with Trump's new trade policy. Against this background, traders may well begin to fear a possible confrontation between the US president and the Fed, although the latter is not under the control of Trump. At the same time, it should be noted that market participants finally began to exert pressure on the US currency in connection with all the events of recent weeks. Perhaps, they began to fear that Trump will try with all his might to reduce the dollar. Perhaps, due to the fact that the trade war looks now inevitable. And to what it can lead, now, perhaps, no one can say. If such a market reaction is not single and short-term, then the pound and the euro for the first time in a long time there are real chances for a serious recovery.

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to be corrected and overcame the Kijun-sen line. After a two-day growth, it would be logical to see a correction, especially given that the macroeconomic news calendar is empty today. However, there are no correction signals now. Therefore, the formalities are actually long for the purpose of 1.3209. They can be opened with small lots.

Sell-positions are recommended to resume with the targets 1.3055 and 1.2961, if the bears will find the strength to reverse the anchorage below the critical Kijun-sen line. The signal to sell the "dead cross" is still being preserved.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 23rd of July. Trump issued another "bomb" and denounced the displeasure from the actions of the Fed

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 49p - 96p - 63p - 100p - 112p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 84p (76p).

The currency pair EUR / USD on Friday, July 20, worked out the target level of 1.1698 with a large margin, and at the same time overcame the cloud of Ichimoku. On Friday, no single macroeconomic report was published. However, the odious president of the United States, Donald Trump, has come to the rescue of traders, as is often the case in recent months. Recall that recently the head of the United States was on a business trip to Britain and there he managed to criticize the plan of Brexit Theresa May, at the same time recommending her to sue the EU. And on Friday, Trump said in an interview that he was seriously considering the possibility of imposing duties on absolutely all Chinese goods imported to the States if China did not change its trade policy. Thus, Trump does not intend to stop at what he has achieved and will push his interests in trade with China further. Now step for China. It is unlikely that they will back down, most likely, they will declare their readiness to impose their trade sanctions against American products. However, exports from both countries are not rubber. If the States impose sanctions on all goods from China, and Beijing will respond with adequate countermeasures, then more heavy weapons can be used in the form of higher trade duties, prohibitions on imports of certain goods and groups of goods, and other restrictions. In general, so far the whole situation looks like the very beginning of the trade war. Ahead, it seems, we are waiting for a lot of interesting things. The second significant event of the last trading day of the past week was Trump's statement about the Fed's actions. The US President noted that by raising the key rate, the rate of the US currency is growing, which is unprofitable for the country. Thus, after about a year of "silence" Trump returned to his favorite topic of the disadvantage of the "expensive" dollar. However, if the US president continues to impose sanctions against all who can, then sooner or later the attractiveness of the dollar in the foreign exchange market will decline.

Trading recommendations:

For the pair EUR / USD, the upward movement continues. As there are no signals about the beginning of the correction at the moment, it is recommended to keep open long positions with a new target of 1,1784. On Monday, trading can be calm, volatility will decrease, and correction on the instrument may begin.

Orders for the sale of intraday and small lots are recommended to open if the MACD indicator turns down, which means readiness for correction with the target level of 1.1675, which is derived from the average volatility of the instrument in recent days and the status of Monday as a "half day off" day.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The long-term outlook for GBP / USD

Last week, there was a repeated test of significant long-term support of 1.3054. The increase in demand indicates the interest of large players and the presence of buy limit orders below this level.

Strong reaction to the significant level of support 1.3054, formed in 2017, speaks about the possible formation of a deep correctional model. While the pair is trading above the long-term support level, the probability of forming a medium-term model is more than 50%. This makes it possible to consider corrective purchases in the case of patterning. An important condition is the installation of a stop-loss below the level of 1.3054. This eliminates false withdrawals in the case of the formation of a medium-term flat. The potential profit at purchases from current marks can make 250 points.

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If the growth will lead to a breakdown of the monthly July high and the pair will be able to gain a foothold, this will allow holding a part of the long position with a deeper correction. Adjustment for this plan will have to be made at the end of the week.

To continue falling, a breakdown and consolidation below the level of 1.3054 is necessary by the close of trading in one of the coming weeks. This will open the way for a decline to the next support, which is located at the level of 1.2796. It is important to note that the range between 1.3054 and 1.2796 was the accumulation zone last summer, which in the future led to a strong increase from current marks in the first autumn month. This should be taken into account when switching to a new futures contract, which will occur in mid-September.

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The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Long-term outlook for EUR / USD

The prevailing movement this year is the depreciation. The main decline occurred in April and May, which allowed the pair to fall by 7%. The last two months, the price is held in a certain range.

The flange range began to form at the beginning of June, and its upper limit can be considered level 1.1798. To overcome this mark, the pair can not already the third month, which indicates the presence of a major interest above the June maximum. Defining support is the level of 1.1539, the test of which invariably leads to the appearance of a large offer. This indicates the presence of large limit orders below the specified mark. Work in a protracted flat means looking for deals from the range boundaries, not forgetting that the long-term priority remains a fall.

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The most favorable prices for the sale of the instrument are located above the level of 1.1798. The size of the stop-loss must be calculated in such a way that it is less than the potential profit, which is located at support level 1.1539. Since the size of the profit will be 257 points, the stop-loss is not recommended to do more than 80 pips. When determining the entry point within a day after the test level 1.1798, such an opportunity will appear.

To breach the descending structure, a breakdown and consolidation above level 1.1798 of one of the American trading sessions will be required. The fastening will look like the closing of trading sessions above the resistance level. It will be enough one or two days to talk about the emergence of new interests of major players and the abolition of the downward medium-term movement.

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The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for July 23. The dollar has been falling for two days

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD on the 4-hour chart continued on Friday the growth process after the formation of bullish divergence in the CCI indicator and performed fixation above the correction level of 61.8% - 1.1721. As a result, on July 23 the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.1771. Brewing divergences today is not observed in any indicator. The retracement of the pair's rate from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop towards the correctional level of 61.8%.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of June 14, 2018 and June 21, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, a bullish divergence was formed in the CCI indicator, which allowed the quotes to turn in favor of the EU currency and begin the process of returning to the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1789. Fixing the pair from the Fibo level of 76.4% again will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. The consolidation of the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the likelihood of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1938.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair on July 23 can be kept open with the target of 1.1771 with the transferred Stop Loss level under the correction level of 61.8%, as there was a close above the level of 1.1721.

To sell the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1.1721, if there is a retreat from the correction level of 76.4%, with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 1.1771.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for July 23. Pound sterling may resume falling already today

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the British currency after the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator and the fixation above the correction level of 200.0% to 1.3047. As a result, the growth process continues on July 23 in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.3301. The bearish divergence of the CCI indicator is maturing, which allows us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a return to the Fibo level of 200.0% - 1.3047. The consolidation of quotations under the correction level of 200.0% will increase the chances of continuing the fall towards the Fibo level of 261.8% - 1.2638.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018 and April 17, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the growth process continues towards the corrective level of 50.0% - 1.3160. Quit of the pair quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the correction levels of 38.2% - 1.3111 and 23.6% - 1.3052. Fixing the rate above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.3208.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018 and July 19, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can now be kept open with a target of 1.3160 and a stop loss order under the correction level of 38.2%, as there was a close above the Fibo level of 1.3111 (hourly chart). Closing above the level of 50.0% will allow you to hold purchases with a target of 1.3208.

The GBP / USD pair can be traded with a target of 1.3111 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 50.0% if there is a retreat from the Fibo level of 1.3160.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for July 23, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found that price rejected from the resistance level at $7.658, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. Wait for a bearish flag to confirm a downward movement. I expect a potential downward correction before potential upward continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of $7.400 and at the price of $7.175.

Support/Resistance

$7.660 – Intraday resistance

$7.600– Intraday support

$7.400 – Objective target 1

$7.175 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for July 23, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3157. According to the H1 time – frame, I found downward correction in progress (potential abc flat), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found hidden bullish divergence on the MACD in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of supply trendline to confirm further upward continuation. The upward target is set at the price of 1.3215.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3155

R2: 1.3165

R3: 1.3170

Support levels:

S1: 1.3128

S2: 1.3110

S3: 1.3100

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for July 23, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,234.68. According to the H1 time – frame, I found rejection of the upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $1,244.45.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,234.15

R2: $1,235.40

R3: $1,237.35

Support levels:

S1: $1,230.90

S2: $1.228.97

S3: $1,227.75

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for July 23. Euro is still ready for a new and powerful fall

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the Friday trading session, the EUR / USD pair gained about 100 bp from the low of the day. Thus, the conclusion emerges about the transformation of the whole section of the trend. If this assumption is correct, the decline of quotations within the framework of the global wave 5 will resume after the end of wave e in the 4th. The wave 4 now even more common looks like a diagonal triangle, and wave e - at the upper generatrix the narrowing channel of the line. An unsuccessful attempt to break this line will confirm the pair's readiness for a long decline. A success, on the contrary, will lead to the necessity of making counting.

Goals for sales:

1.1600

1.1440 - 323.6% Retaliation in the Repair Area

Goals for shopping:

1,1834 - 200.0% by Fibonacci

1.1957 - 161.8% Retaliation

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The proposed wave 4 complicated its internal structure. Thus, I still expect a resumption of the pair's decline and recommend the formation of sales, but now the key is the upper line of the tapering triangle. An unsuccessful attempt at a breakthrough will confirm the expectations of the bearish wave 5 construction. A Breakthrough of this line will lead to the revision of the wave counting, and in this case.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD / USD pair review for July 23, 2018

AUD / USD pair

Following the general growth of against the dollar currency pairs on Friday, the Australian dollar rose by 60 points, having reached the resistance of the trend line for the third time since July 9.

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On the four-hour chart, the price was also held this morning by the trend line. The signal lines of the Marlin oscillator while reviewing above zero, which shifts the trend towards growth. It can last up to the upper limit of the price channel (0.7500). To prevent this, a red balance sheet on a daily scale is needed because the price balance is formally still bearish. The support and the goal of the "bears" is the price level of 0.7320.

So, the potential of the Australian dollar has gained a positive direction, but the current trend and the balance are negative. We are waiting for a solution to the situation.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 23/07/2018

Iran's supreme spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Chamenei supported the stance of President Ali Rowhani, who suggested that if Iran's oil exports were halted, Iran would block oil exports from the Gulf countries. He also stated that negotiations with the United States would be a "manifest error".

Earlier in July, Rowhani, in response to Iran's US sanctions and US efforts to force all countries to stop buying Iranian oil, threatened to block any oil supplies from neighboring countries. "If oil from Iran will not be exported, no country in the region will export it and would be an important statement that reflects the policy and position of the system prevailing in Iran" - we can read on an official website of Chamenei. In the past Iran threatened to block the Strait of Ormuz on the main oil export route from the region as part of retaliation for US operations.

"Negotiating would be an obvious mistake because you can not rely on Washington" - added on the Ayatollah website. His opinion is the last word on all the important issues of the Iranian state, and publicizing the position of Chamenei is intended to discourage open opposition to the threat formulated by Rowhani.

Chamenei also expressed support for continuing talks with European partners in Iran who are preparing a package of economic measures to counterbalance the withdrawal of the US from a nuclear agreement: "Negotiations with the Europeans should not be stopped, but we should not just wait for the European economic package, but continue the necessary actions in the country," Chamenei said.

As a result of new US sanctions, which put oil markets at enormous strain in the face of supply disruptions in other parts of the world, Iran's oil exports may fall by two thirds by the end of this year. Earlier this month, France announced that it is unlikely that European countries would be able to jointly create an economic package for Iran. The situation is getting tenser and the Oil price will start to react violently to any news regarding this situation.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The H4 Doji candle clearly signals the reverse of the positive sentiment and a gap down confirms the current outlook for oil. The bulls might now try to bounce the price towards the level of 69.24 in order to fill the gap down, but the sequence of lower highs and lower lows indicate an ongoing short-term corrective pull-back in progress, that might even end up as a trend reversal. In order to do this, the bear camp has to break below the level of 67.00 and head towards the key technical support at the level of 63.30.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Testing Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

USD/CAD is testing its support at 1.3121 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where a bounce up to its resistance at 1.3220 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) is expected.

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 2.6% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

USD/CAD is testing its support where a bounce is expected.

Buy above 1.3121. Stop loss at 1.3057. Take profit at 1.3220.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF Testing Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

USD/CHF is testing its support at 0.9901 (100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, ascending channel support) where a bounce up to its resistance at 0.9977 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) is expected. Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is testing its support at 2.8% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

USD/CHF is testing its support where a bounce is expected.

Buy above 0.9901. Stop loss 0.9856. Take profit at 0.9977.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 23/07/2018

Trump criticizes raising the Fed's interest rates on Thursday and on Friday he was concerned with a too strong dollar. This contributed to the weakening of the dollar, which can be interpreted in terms of limiting the bulls long exposure to the market. This is why the global investors will keep an eye on the macro data from the US this week, to see whether the solid pace of recovery continues, or will the global investors see the first signs of slowing down?

The reasons for worries may be weak dynamics of home sales (today and on Wednesday) or disappointing readings of activity indices in industry and services (to be released on Tuesday). The latter seems unlikely after the strong results of NY Empire State and Philly Fed. The key reading will be the preliminary GDP estimate for the second quarter and the preceding data on orders for durable goods (to be released on Thursday). Expectations are suspended high (GDP: 4.1%, prev. 2.0%), so disappointment will have more firepower.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame before the data are released. After the false breakout above the level of 95.66, the bears took control of the market and pushed the price towards the important support at the level of 94.29-94.17 support. Any violation of the level of 94.10 will result in another spike down towards the level of 93.71. Please notice, the golden trend line will be then clearly violated, so it will only reinforce the strength of the bears - worth to keep an eye on.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump against the Fed: an unexpected turn

Last week, Trump criticized the Fed's monetary policy, saying that raising the Fed's interest rates leads to a strengthening of the dollar against the currencies of other countries that pursue a soft monetary policy. First of all, his statement concerned, of course, the euro. According to Trump, if the ECB does not raise rates and the dollar grows against the euro and against the renminbi, they will generally fall like a stone.

Of course, this statement was quite unexpected and led to the fall of the dollar index, but the situation again normalized after the Trump administration made an explanation in which it stated that "the president respects the independence of the Fed and does not interfere in its decisions."

In fact, Trump, oddly enough, is completely right. Always, after the cycle of raising the rates of the Fed during the year, there was a recession.

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It is clear that, after 1982, lower rates were required to provoke a recession. The current target for the rate for the Fed is only 3%, but even this level raises serious concerns.

It is also clear that each cycle of rate hikes led to a decrease in the volume of industrial production in the structure of the US economy, that is, the current cycle jeopardizes Trump's re-industrialization program. On this point, Trump is absolutely right, raising rates will level out all work to accelerate the growth of the economy, and the growth of the dollar worsens the situation on foreign trade.

This is the first public criticism of the Trump policy of the Fed, and repeated twice - on Thursday and Friday. The situation is probably more serious than it is estimated by the markets, and further strengthening of the dollar can significantly worsen Trump's position. Perhaps, this demarche was provoked by the calculations of the Trump administration on the forecast of the budget deficit, which were announced a little earlier. According to these calculations, in each of the next three years, the budget deficit will grow by about $ 100 billion a year, and in fiscal year 2019 will exceed 1 trillion. According to The Wall Street Journal, these calculations were sent to Congress in time, but no one paid any attention to them, and then Trump reacted to the criticism of the Fed's policy.

Obviously, the overly strengthening dollar is severely hampered by Trump, who is playing to raise rates in the trade war with China. At the past, he had to announce the readiness to use the mechanism to raise duties on all imports from China, that is, $ 500 billion. China, in turn, devalues the yuan, which in the moment reached the level of 6.81 per dollar - the maximum value for more than a year. The mechanism of the devaluation is based on the launch of a counterpart of the LTRO program by China - instead of loans, the companies will raise funds through the issue of bonds that will be repurchased by banks, but banks under these bonds will have access to zero-rate loans. China thus reduces the level of threat for corporate defaults, which will inevitably grow because of the complications of the conditions for exports. Furthermore, China also consciously focuses on the growth of the domestic market, that is, will continue to support the program "Strategy 2025", which the United States is against.

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The macroeconomic calendar for today is calm. The Bundesbank, which will publish a monthly report, and the FRB of Chicago will report on the level of economic activity in the region. They will make a troublemaker of the calm and a report on sales in the secondary market of the US will be released later.

The USD/CNY pair is confidently moving to the level of 7.00, and the trade-weighted dollar exchange rate will continue to grow. Against the euro, a strong pound is not expected, and trade with high probability will pass in the range.

The USD/JPY pair, after the strong growth last week on Monday, is corrected. The reason lies in the emerged reports about a possible correction of the policy of the Bank of Japan in the control of profitability. At the opening of trading, the yield on 10-year bonds jumped from 0.033% to 0.084% while the USD/JPY rate dropped to 110.8. During the day, it is possible to reach 109.30 and the scenario is clearly bearish.

The euro and the pound look more neutral while the EUR/USD may fall to 1.1702 and hold a day near this level and the GBPUSD will be aiming for 1.3045. For a more blue drop, there are no good reasons.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 23, 2018

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Overview:

The pivot point: 0.9857.

The USD/CHF pair is still trading above the pivot point of the price 0.9857. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0053.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 23, 2018

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Overview:

The resistance is seen at the level of 0.7474. The AUD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7474 towards 0.7348. But, the price rebounded from the bottom of 0.7348 to trade around the spot of 0.7474 again. The resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7474, 0.7513 and 0.7554. Moreover, the price area of 0.7474/0.7513 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7474 and 0.7257. If the AUD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7474, the market will decline further to 0.7302 as the first target. This would suggest the bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7257 so as to test the daily support 3. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7550, then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Control zones of EUR / USD pair on 23.07.18

At the end of last week, the formation of a reversal upward model took place whereas the goal of which was a weekly control zone of 1.1759-1.1777. The test of this zone will determine the further priority for a week.

The last level of the offer is located at 1.1752, above which there were large limit orders for sale. A little above this level is the first target weekly control zone of 1.1759-1.1777. The test of the indicated marks will allow to fix the most part of purchases and to consider sales, in case of formation of a pattern of absorption and closing of the American session below the control zone. This will confirm the flattened structure of the movement.

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For those who do not have a purchase, you will need a favorable price. This will make the reduction of the pair to the a control zone of 1.1693-1.1689 and hold the price above the zone. Purchases can be made with a limit order. An important factor for opening purchases from the limits of the specified zone is the drop from current marks without a weekly test. If the first short-term test takes place first, the limit will no longer be profitable and the entry points to the purchase will have to be transferred to lower prices.

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For the formation of a reversal downward model, a breakdown and consolidation below a control zone of 1.1658-1.1649 are required for today's US session. The probability of implementing such a model is 30%, so it should only be used as an auxiliary.


The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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The euro again enters a difficult life period

EUR / USD

Last Friday, US President Donald Trump further strengthened verbal pressure on the dollar, repeating the previously stated thesis about the unequal trade relations through the exchange of national currencies and interest rates. However, despite such a statement, Trump did not explain what he wants and as a result there will either be a lower Fed rate or an increase in the ECB rate. It was clear that China was deliberately lowering the national currency rate, for which Trump threatened to impose increased duties on all Chinese goods in full (an additional $ 500 billion). The Fed, on the criticism of Trump, answered through Bullard that he would continue the planned policy.

The euro area's balance of payments for May fell from 29.6 billion euros to 22.4 billion euros, while waiting for a decline to 27.2 billion euros. However, what's confusing is not so much as the dynamics of compression, but the fact that Current Account falls for the fourth consecutive month, which was not in time of the mortgage crisis in 2008.

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The euro rose to the lower limit of the range of 1.1750 / 90. Despite the fact that formally, the price was fixed above the trend line of Kruzenshtern (blue), the upcoming growth, if it will, looks extremely heavy. After overcoming this resistance, the price opens up a new range of 1.1840 / 60.

Today, the consumer confidence index in the euro area for the current month is expected without a change in -1 point. Sales of homes in the US secondary real estate market for June are expected to increase from 5.43 million to 5.46 million.

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On the four-hour chart, the price firmly entrenched above the indicator lines while the curve of the Marlin line at the very top does not yet indicate a reversal of the whole trend. Probably, the price will make an attempt to test for the strength of the range 1.1750 / 90 even against the economic data coming out today. However, it may not do so and just go down on Trump's formal rhetoric because that's how his Chinese media are currently perceiving his threats. A number of investment funds said that they would not adjust the strategy until the details of the expected increase in duties of $ 500 billion became clear. At the same time, other institutional investors adhere to the idea that the US wins in the trade war. We adhere to this idea as well, so we see the weakening of the dollar not in the context of a trade war, but in the context of Trump's discontent with monetary policy. We believe that Trump's unfounded statement is made for some kind of distraction, therefore, we can not rely on him. One of the pressing problems of the United States is Iranian oil and preparations for a military scenario in this country.

In fact, the situation has not been determined to date, and the situation should be clarified. The current support is the range of 1.1680-1.1700.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of July 23

Здравствуйте, уважаемые коллеги.

По паре Евро/Доллар следим за краткосрочным восходящим циклом от 19 июля. По паре Фунт/Доллар цена формирует восходящую структуру от 19 июля. По паре Доллар/Франк нисходящий цикл от 13 июля рассматриваем в качестве основной структуры. По паре Доллар/Иена ожидаем оформления среднесрочной нисходящей структуры. По паре Евро/Иена следим за нисходящей структурой от 17 июля. По паре Фунт/Иена ожидаем движение к уровню 145.01.

Прогноз на 23 июля:

Аналитический обзор валютных пар в масштабе Н1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1806, 1.1788, 1.1757, 1.1731, 1.1716 and 1.1688. Here, we follow the short-term upward structure of July 19. The continuation of the upward movement is possible after the breakdown of 1.1757. In this case, the target is 1.1788. In the area of 1.1788 - 1.1806 is short-term upward movement. From here, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1731-1.1716. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1688. This level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of July 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1757 Take profit: 1.1785

Buy 1.1789 Take profit: 1.1804

Sell: 1.1730 Take profit: 1.1718

Sell: 1.1714 Take profit: 1.1690

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3356, 1.3303, 1.3228, 1.3200, 1.3165, 1.3111, 1.3079 and 1.3031. Here, we follow the formation of the initial conditions for the top of July 19. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3165. In this case, the target is 1.3200. Near this level, a prolonged consolidation to the end of the second zone is possible. Passing the price of the noise range of 1.3200 - 1.3228 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3303. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3356. The probable achievement of this level is on July 25-26.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3111 - 1.3079. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3031. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the top of July 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3165 Take profit: 1.3200

Buy: 1.3230 Take profit: 1.3300

Sell: 1.3110 Take profit: 1.3080

Sell: 1.3076 Take profit: 1.3034

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9998, 0.9957, 0.9935, 0.9894, 0.9872, 0.9819 and 0.9779. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure of July 13 as the main one. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after passing through the noise range of 0.9894 - 0.9872. In this case, the target is 0.9819. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.9779. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range 0.9935 - 0.9957. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9998.

The main trend is the downward structure of July 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9935 Take profit: 0.9955

Buy: 0.9960 Take profit: 0.9995

Sell: 0.9870 Take profit: 0.9822

Sell: 0.9817 Take profit: 0.9782

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 111.80, 111.42, 111.21, 110.84, 110.60 and 110.15. Here, we expect the design of the medium-term downward structure of July 19. The continuation of the downward movement is possible after passing through the noise range of 110.84 - 110.60. In this case, the potential target is 110.15. Upon reaching this level, we expect a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 111.21 - 111.42. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 111.80.

For the main trend, we expect the design of the medium-term downward structure of July 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.21 Take profit: 111.40

Buy: 111.44 Take profit: 111.80

Sell: 110.82 Take profit: 110.62

Sell: 110.58 Take profit: 110.17

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key H1 scale levels are: 1.3221, 1.3184, 1.3158, 1.3107, 1.3052, 1.2988 and 1.2945. Here, we follow the formation of a downward structure from July 20. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3107. In this case, the target is 1.3052. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown at the level of 1.3050 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2988. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.2945. The probable date of reaching this level July 24-25. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.31.58 - 1.3184. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3221. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from July 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3158 Take profit: 1.3182

Buy: 1.3185 Take profit: 1.3220

Sell: 1.3105 Take profit: 1.3054

Sell: 1.3050 Take profit: 1.2990

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7551, 0.7522, 0.7477, 0.7434, 0.7394, 0.7376, 0.7352 and 0.7324. Here, we follow the formation of the upward structure of July 20. The continuation of the development of the initial conditions is expected after the breakdown of 0.7434. Here, the target is 0.7477. Near this is the consolidation level up to the 2nd zone. The breakdown at the level of 0.7477 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7551. In the area of 0.7522 - 0.7551 is the consolidation of the price.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7394 - 0.7376. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7352. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the upward structure of July 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7435 Take profit: 0.7475

Buy: 0.7478 Take profit: 0.7520

Sell: 0.7374 Take profit: 0.7354

Sell: 0.7350 Take profit: 0.7325

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For the of EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 131.14, 130.79, 130.47, 130.08, 129.77, 129.39, 129.12 and 128.63. Here, we follow the development of the downward movement of July 17. Short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 130.08 - 129.77. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 129.39. In the area of 129.39 - 129.12 is the consolidation of the price and hence, the probability of a turn up is high. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 128.63.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 130.47 - 130.79. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 131.14.

The main trend is the downward structure of July 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.47 Take profit: 130.76

Buy: 130.81 Take profit: 131.14

Sell: 130.06 Take profit: 129.80

Sell: 129.75 Take profit: 129.46

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 148.11, 147.37, 146.89, 145.91, 145.01, 144.33 and 143.46. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure of July 16. At the moment, we expect the movement towards 145.01. In the area of 145.01 - 144.33 is short-term downward movement as well as the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 143.46. The probable date of reaching it is on July 21 and beyond.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 146.90 - 147.37. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 148.10. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of July 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.90 Take profit: 147.35

Buy: 147.45 Take profit: 148.10

Sell: 145.90 Take profit: 145.10

Sell: 145.00 Take profit: 144.40

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for July 23, 2018

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

The breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. The bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears. That's why, bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

Quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again. This was followed by a recent bullish reversal pattern (123 pattern) which enhances the bullish side of the market.

Recent signs of bullish weakness were manifested on the chart. The bulls were failing to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6820 which may endanger the bullish reversal scenario.

However, early signs of bullish rejection are currently being expressed. Bullish fixation above 0.6820 is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement.

Trading Recommendations:

The price zone 0.6750-0.6800 still constitutes a demand zone to be considered for a valid BUY entry.

Bullish fixation above 0.6820 is needed to provide enough bullish momentum towards 0.6900 and probably 0.6980.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 23, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why, a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.

Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where bearish pressure was expressed.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside the consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1750 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Please note that any bullish breakout above 1.1750 will probably liberate a quick bullish movement towards 1.1850 (the upper limit of the depicted supply zone).

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Trading plan for 23/07/2018

After the weekend, the dollar continues to depreciate in reaction to comments from President Trump, who is unhappy with the strength of the currency and the Fed's policy. The stock markets are down because Trump's interference and fears about trade conflicts are spoiling the mood. For similar reasons, it loses oil, but the weak dollar helps in the reflection of gold.

The dollar sell-off started on Friday after the words of US president Trump, who blames the Fed for a strong dollar and is afraid that this will raise interest rates twice this year. Earlier, Trump shocked the market by accusing China and the EU of manipulating the rate. Investors have stopped to feel comfortable on long positions in USD, which they have been building for the last days, and began to close orders on a massive scale. On Monday the volatility is slightly lower and in the last hours the dollar tries to make up for losses, but USD/JPY went down to 110.75, EUR/USD jumped to 1.1750.

In the stock market, Trump's comments add cause for concern to the already rich list related to commercial disputes, which is not conducive to growth. Japanese Nikkei225 takes tips from USD/JPY and drops today by 1.4%. Markets in China opened low, but later began to bounce back and Shanghai Composite gains 0.6%.WTI oil calmed down to nearly $68 after bumping by $2 on Friday. Market perturbations scared investors in long positions, which resulted in a reversal of the whole Thursday's increases. Strongly correlated with fluctuations in the dollar, the zloty strongly rebounded on Friday and today it stopped only before 1235 USD.

On Monday the 23rd of July, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Wholesale Sales data from Canada and Existing Home Sales data from the US. Later, during the US session, there is a scheduled speech from BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent.

EUR/USD analysis for 23/07/2018:

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the Friday's rally form the level of 1.1574. The bulls have managed to rally towards the level of 1.17158, but early in the Monday's morning, the correction towards the golden trend line is now in development. The price has bounced from the level of 1.1710, which is the internal golden trend line support and it looks like the bulls are trying to push the market higher towards the level of 1.1790, the local swing high. The strong and positive momentum is supporting the bullish bias. The key resistance zone is seen between the levels of 1.1829 - 1.1850.

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Weekly review from July 23 to July 28, 2018 for a pair of EUR/USD

On the weekly chart, the price is moving down in the side channel and tested again the support line of the rising channel 1.1614 (white thin line) and after that the price went up. Again, the fourth point of contact of the support line is a good starting point to work upwards (with 70% probability). Most likely, we are waiting for an upward movement this week.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

This week, the market may start moving up with the immediate target at 1.1756 - a recoil level of 23.6% (blue dotted line) and further up. In fact, the candlestick analysis gives the bottom job (harami). Let's turn to the indicator analysis.

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Fig. 2 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up (blue dotted line);

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- monthly graph - up.

Conclusion on complex analysis - up.

The overall calculation result of the candle currency pair EUR / USD on a weekly chart indicates the weekly price would likely trail to the upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of a weekly white candle and the absence of a second upper shadow.

The nearest upper target is 1.1756 - the recoil level is 23.6% (blue dotted line) and further up.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Control zones GBPUSD 23.07.18

On Friday, the formation of the reversal pattern of takeover occurred after the pair was fixed above NKZ 1/2 1.3097-1.3085. The priority direction of trade at the beginning of this week is growth.

Purchases come to the fore and the important point is to find the best prices to open a long position.The first support, where it is necessary to establish a limit order, is NKZ 1/4 1.3075-1.3069. The ratio of risk to profit when making purchases from the limits of the specified zone will be 1 to 4, which will give a significant advantage over the distance. The goal of the upward movement is the weekly short-term order of 1.3239-1.3213, where fixations of the long position are required partial or complete.

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An important point in making a trading decision is the probability of updating the nearest extreme. The probability of updating today's peak is 70%, which determines the transactions that will be profitable at the beginning of this week.

A less profitable model for trading will be the growth from the current levels. This will not allow you to get such a favorable purchase price today, but any decline can also be used to open a long position. It is necessary to understand, the closer the price is to the weekly KZ, however, purchases become profitable. This indicates the need to consider any pattern in the direction of growth to make a trading decision.

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Daytime CP is the day control area. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the last year.

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Overview of the GBP/USD as of July 23, 2018

GBP / USD

On Friday, the data for the UK budget deficit for June increased, as the public sector borrowing amounted to 4.5 billion pounds against 3.9 billion in May, with the forecast of 3.6 billion. However, the decline of the dollar index by 0.76%, with the threat of Britain not to pay EU "compensation" of 60 billion pounds helped the British currency to raised by 117 points.

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Technically, the British pound is in a difficult situation. It would likely move to the resistance of the trend line on a daily scale (1.3208) and this will be the third test of this line since July 9. For further growth, the Marlin oscillator is required to reach the growth zone (positive numbers).

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But in order to achieve a daily price resistance, the price should overcome the trend line on a smaller chart - H4 (1.3164). The situation for today is not defined.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD For July 23, 2018

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The AUD/USD pair is now trading sideways that is seen at the 4-hour chart. Now the price is moving in a rectangle pattern between 0.7326 and 0.7483. It seems the pair is goign to test its next support at 0.7349-0.7326.

(Disclaimer)

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on EUR/USD for July 23, 2018

EUR/USD has bounced towards the important resistance of 1.1730-1.1760 once again. We warned about the bullish divergence signs last week and that a bounce towards the upper triangle boundary was very possible. The EUR/USD pair has reached this resistance again.

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Red lines - triangle pattern

Blue line - major support

Black lines - bullish divergence

The EUR/USD has broken above the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud. The bullish divergence played out very fast as the price recovered its losses. However, the price is still below the major resistance area of 1.1730-1.1760. Only if we clear above this area we will see a sustained rally towards 1.19-1.20 or even higher. Support is at 1.17 and at 1.1660-1.1640. If we break below the red trend line support once again, we will have to take a closer look at the RSI if it holds above its previous lows. If the RSI breaks below the black trend line support, we should expect EUR/USD to break below 1.16 once again.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 23, 2018

Gold price has bounced finally from the $1,210 area towards $1,230. Price remains inside the bullish wedge pattern. Gold price remains in a bearish trend, but we have some reversal signs from last week. Bulls need to built on that in order for more upside to come.

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Black line - resistance

Red line - support

Upward sloping red line - bullish divergence

Short-term resistance and wedge pattern resistance is at $1,235. A break above it will be a bullish sign. Breaking the downward sloping wedge will be a bullish sign that could bring Gold price back towards $1,300. A break below $1,215 could push Gold price towards $1,200 or even below it.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 23, 2018

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If we look at the 4-hour chart, the EUR/JPY pair seems to trade lower. This has already been confirmed by the price moving below the 21-period Moving Average. However, in a few moments the pair is going to make the upward correction at least to test the dynamic resistance at the 21-period Moving Average before the price goes down again.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com