Daily analysis of Silver for January 15, 2016

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Overview

The silver price bounced downward, as expected in our last report, to approach testing of the sideways range support at 13.65, fluctuating within this track. Its resistance line is located at 14.25, noticing that stochastic shows positive signals now that might push the price to test the mentioned resistance in upcoming sessions. In general, we still expect a sideways move on an intraday basis until the price manages to surpass one of the mentioned levels. Breaching the 14.25 resistance represents the start of a bullish correction with its next main target located at 15.30. Breaking the 13.65 support will put the price under negative pressure. Its main targets begin at 13.00. Until now, the sideways range is still dominating on an intraday basis, and the price needs to breach one of this range's lines represented by the 13.65 support and 14.25 resistance to detect net targets clearly, while the details of these targets are explained in our morning report. An expected trading range for today is between 13.65 support and 14.25 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 15, 2016

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Overview

Intraday bias remains downward in the GBP/JPY pair for next long-term Fibonacci level at 165.67. On the upside, the bias will turn neutral and bring the first consolidation above minor resistance at 173.35. But recovery should be limited below the level of 180.36 where support turned resistance resulting in a fall resumption. The current development confirmed medium-term topping at 195.86 on condition of bearish divergence in the weekly MACD. A fall from 195.86 is currently viewed as a correction and would first target 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. We should assess the depth of correction based on reactions to 165.67 and the structure of the decline. A breakout of 180.36 will bring a rebound but we expect strong resistance to bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.14; (P) 169.82; (R1) 170.82;

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Gold : analysis for January 15 , 2016

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,071.26. In the daily time frame, we can observe strong supply and a wide range of bars. Buying at this stage looks risky since the price rejected our strong resistance. The intraday trend is downward. According to the M30 time frame, the trend is strongly downward. The price rejected from our 100 SMA. Intraday target is set at the level of $1,071.00. Be careful when buying gold at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities. The key support for gold is at the level of $1,046.00. The potential breakout of the level of $1,046.00 will confirm short-term continuation of a downward trend.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,087.70

R2: 1,098.50

R3: 1,105.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,070.00

S2: 1,062.90

S3: 1,052.00

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential selling opportunities, buying looks risky.

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EUR/NZD analysis for January 15, 2016

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.7067 in a volume above the average. In the daily time frame, the price has broken 100 SMA and resistance at the level of 1.6760. In the H1 time frame, I found that the price has broken the bullish flag pattern. Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips. The next upward station is seen around the level of 1.7330 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). I also found a daily swing low around the level of 1.7330, which is acting as resistance right now.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6955

R2: 1.7035

R3: 1.7165

Support levels:

S1: 1.6695

S2: 1.6615

S3: 1.6480

Trading recommendations: The short-term trend is still upward. So, watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 15, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CAD pair continues to show signs of strength following a breakout at 1.4468. The new support is found at 1.4468. This support is coinciding with a ratio of 88.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. Therefore, the trend's resistance was broken and turned to support yesterday. Another thought is that the price broke the EMA (100) in order to hold an uptrend from the level of 1.4468. Also, it should be noticed that the USD/CAD pair has already formed a minor resistance at the level of 1.4601 (a new double bottom today); so the range is seen between the levels of 1.4468 and 1.4601 now. Accordingly, the market is going to indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.4468 with the first target at 1.4575 and continue towards 1.4601. At the same time, if the trend breaks this level and closes below 1.4468, it will call for downside momentum. It is rather convincing since the structure of the fall does not look corrective. Thereupon, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at 1.4468. Hence, sell at this level in the short term. But generally, the trend is still calling for the strong bullish market, for that it should never go against the trend nowadays.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 15, 2016

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Overview:

The psychological level of the GBP/USD pair is seen at the level of 1.4407. This level is acting as strong resistance and it coincides with a ratio of 11.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the daily chart. Therefore, the first key level is seen at 1.4407 (the daily pivot point). Furthermore, a trend was very clear heading downwards. Thus, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 1.4407 because sellers are asking for a higher price. As a result, sell at the level of 1.4407 with a target at 1.4300 and 1.4240. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.4234 represents the weekly support 3.

Observations:

  • Major support is found at the level of 1.4234; and major resistance has placed at the daily pivot point (1.4407)
  • We expect a new range about 120 pips.
  • If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.
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Global macro overview for 15/01/2016

Global macro overview for 15/01/2016:

There is a bunch of important data from the US to be released at 02:55 GMT today. One of the most anticipated is Michigan Consumer Expectations for the month of January. The consumer sentiment index in January is expected to improve to the level of 92.2 from 91.8 in December, which is the first positive data for 2016. The recent upbeat NFP number (4th month in a row) and cheap gasoline ( and crude oil) might greatly contribute to even more upbeat reading. Nevertheless, previous cycle highs of the sentiment are still far away, so there is much room to go.

The SPY (SP500 EFT) is falling towards the bulls last resort demand zone. The next resistance is seen at the level of 194.89 and next support is seen at the level of 186.95.

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Global macro overview for 15/01/2016

Global macro overview for 15/01/2016:

Yesterday, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.5% and reminded split eight-to-one on interest rate decision. Ian McCafferty remained the only dissenter voting for an immediate hike of 0.25 basis points. The Monetary Policy Committee said the recovery in inflation would be "a little more modest than previously assumed," while business surveys signal a slower pace of growth. Policy makers revised downwards their estimates for the last quarter and this quarter expansion to 0.5%. Moreover, the current leading bank economists are arguing whether the BoE is be able to raise the interest rate in 2016, and the vast majority of the market participants believes the regulator will not be able to raise the benchmark rate until the middle of 2017.

The GBP/USD pair fell down to the weekly support level at 1.4352 threatening to break below it. In that case, the next important support will be found at the level of 1.4223.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15, 2016

General overview for 15/01/2016:

There is one more sub-wave to the downside possible before the uptrend rebounds as wave b purple progression is getting more complex and time-consuming. A target for the potential wave c purple is still seen at the level of 129.61, just above the old wave -iv- top. Nevertheless, to confirm this scenario, the price must break out higher above the golden trend line in an impulsive fashion.

Support/Resistance:

127.31 - Intraday Support

128.31 - Weekly Pivot

129.08 - Intraday Resistance

129.31 - Wave c Target Projection

131.01 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should place buy orders from current market levels witch SL just below the last intraday support at the level of 127.31 and TP at the level of 129.61.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 15, 2016

General overview for 15/01/2016:

The pair made the last spike up early this morning as the last wave to the upside has been completed. The top has reached the level of 1.4529 and it looks like the longer term swing high might be in place. The bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports the view, but the first confirmation comes with a breakout at the level of 1.4395.

Support/Resistance:

1.4529 - Intraday Resistance

1.4443 - WR2

1.4395 - Intraday Support

1.4355 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive day traders and swing traders might consider placing sell orders as close as it is possible to the current swing at the level of 1.4529 with a SL just above it and TP open for now.

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Technical analysis of Silver for January 15, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver dropped to Fibonacci 0.786 support of the entire rally between the levels of $13.70 and $14.20. It has bounced off since then, and is trading around $13.85 at the moment looking for an opportunity to extend its rally towards $14.30 and $14.50. Please note that the drop from $14.20 looks corrective and bulls should remain poised to take control back until prices stay above the level of $13.65. It is hence recommended to remain long and look for a chance to add further positions, with risk at $13.45. Immediate support is seen at $13.65, while resistance is seen at $14.20.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long now with stop at $13.45, targets are at $14.50 and $15.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for January 15, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around the level of $1,083.00 at the moment after reaching a low of $1,071.00 yesterday. The metal is poised to stage an extended rally towards $1,125.00 and $1,136.00 respectively in coming days. Please note that the metal has still bounced off the Fibonacci 0.618 support around $1,078.00 and also close to the rising trend line. Immediate support is seen at $1,058.00/1,060.00, while resistance is seen at $1,095.00 respectively. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk at $1,060.00. Bulls seem to be poised to remain in control until prices stay above $1,060.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at $1,057.00, targets are at $1,125.00 and $1,136.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair might be preparing for an extended rally towards at least 134.50 before producing a meaningful correction. The pair is expected to remain above the level of 126.00 with bulls poised to regain control and push it higher. As discussed earlier, again please note that the pair has bounced from the Fibonacci 0.88 % support levels around 127.00 and is currently trading above 128.00. It is a matter of time before the rally accelerates towards 132.50 and 134.50 respectively. Immediate support is seen at the level of 126.00, while resistance is seen at 132.50 respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop at 126.00,a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 15, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around the levels of 1.4460/70 at the moment, but is broadly seen to be trading in a range for the last few trading sessions. Immediate support is seen at 1.4400, while resistance is seen at 1.4600 respectively. It looks more like rising support and constant resistance type consolidation in the pair, hence more probable breakout can take place on the north side. The pair can be either producing a counter-trend rally against the drop from 1.55 to 1.43, or a rally towards fresh highs. Hence, it is recommended to remain long with risk at 1.4350 now. Bulls can regain control until prices remain above 1.4350.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long now, stop is at 1.4350, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 15, 2016

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Wave summary:

With a firm breakout above the base-channel resistance-line and more importantly above resistance at 1.6841, we have been given the next "GO" for the upside acceleration towards 1.7205 and 1.7643 on the way higher to strong resistance of 1.8021. The strong resistance still should be broken sooner or later for a continuation higher through 1.9114 towards 1.9844.

Short-term support at 1.6749 is expected to protect the downside for the next impulsive rally higher.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5810 with our stop placed at 1.6350. If you are not long EUR already, then buy near 1.6749 and use the same stop at 1.6350 expecting to move higher soon.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15, 2016

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Wave summary:

The triangle consolidation we have been looking for continues to unfold just as we expected. Still more small squiggles are needed inside the triangle to finish wave d and e before a downside thrust will be seen.

It will take an unexpected break above 129.08 to invalidate the triangle scenario, but even if a break above 129.08 occurs, we expect the potential towards the upside to be limited to 129.48.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 130.95 with stop placed at 129.15. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 128.61 and use the same stop at 129.15.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 15, 2016

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On December 30, significant bearish rejection existed around the level of 0.6840 (daily resistance level) similar to what happened previously on October 23.

Moreover, a daily closure below 0.6750 allowed a quick bearish decline to occur initially towards the level of 0.6500, which was broken-down as well.

The depicted chart illustrates a double-top reversal pattern. The depicted support level at 0.6430 should be broken-down in order to confirm the reversal pattern.

However, traders should note that the level of 0.6430 constitutes a significant support level which corresponds to the backside of the broken downtrend line depicted on the chart.

Hence, a strong bullish rejection and a valid buy entry should be expected.

On the other hand, an obvious bearish closure below 0.6430 opens the way towards 0.6250 where multiple previous bottoms are located.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 15, 2016

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Overview:

A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart). A long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270.

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Since then, another consolidation range was established between 1.2800 and 1.3400.

Few weeks ago, a bearish breakout below the support level of 1.3075 was needed to enable a further bearish decline towards 1.2900. However, an evident bullish rejection was expressed around this level.

A bullish breakout above 1.3400 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) was performed on December 7.

A daily fixation above 1.3400 enhanced the bullish side of the market.

A bullish visit to the next resistance level of 1.4150 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was expected to take place. A temporary bullish fixation above 1.4150 is being manifested on the daily chart.

Note that bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhances the bullish side of the market towards 1.4600-1.4650 where 141.4% Fibonacci expansion is located.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3370-1.3400 remains a significant support zone to be watched for a valid buy entries if a bearish correction occurs.

Trading recommendations:

Risky traders can wait for a bearish engulfing candlestick closure below the level of 1.4100 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) to sell the USD/CAD pair.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for the USD/CAD pair to retrace towards the zone around 1.3400 looking for a low-risk buy entry. S/L should be placed below 1.3300. Initial T/P levels should be placed at 1.3500 and 1.3600.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 15, 2016

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area of 1.5900, which provided significant bearish resistance.

Recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing candles, closing below the level of 1.5220 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This supported the bearish side of the market in the long term.

A quick bearish decline towards the previous weekly level at 1.4950 was expected as a result of the bearish breakdown below 1.5200.

Weekly fixation below 1.4950 opened the way towards 1.4620 which was broken-down as well.

Moreover, the previous weekly candlestick closed below the depicted demand level at 1.4620. Hence, a quick bearish decline was executed towards the next demand level (1.4360).

On the other hand, another bullish closure above 1.4610 will bring bullish strength into the market again. The first bullish target would be located at 1.4950.

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During 2015, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.5770 and 1.5230 where a bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was established. Since then, the market has been trending downwards within the depicted bearish channel.

The price level of 1.4950 was broken to the downside few weeks ago, constituting a significant supply level. As anticipated, it offered a valid sell entry on December 24.

Daily persistence below 1.4800 (the lower limit of the current bearish channel) allowed a further bearish decline towards 1.4680 and 1.4610 where previous prominent bottoms are located on the GBP/USD daily chart.

Currently, the GBP/USD pair looks oversold as it is being pushed further below the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel. Moreover, the previous demand level at 1.4615 was broken-down last Friday.

That is why, early signs of bullish rejection around the demand level of 1.4360 should be considered as a valid buy signal.

Trading Recommendation:

Risky traders can have a valid buy entry anywhere around the level of 1.4360.

S/L should be located below 1.4300 to minimize our risk.

Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.4440, 1.4500 and 1.4610.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 15, 2016

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Previously, the EUR/USD pair moved lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

An April candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (August, September, October, and November) reflected strong bearish pressure extending the level of 1.1450.

Hence, a long-term projected target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakout below the monthly demand level of 1.0570 occurs before the end of this month (January).

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On August 24, the EUR/USD pair looked overbought as the market spiked above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Shortly after, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish pressure. An intraday sell entry was suggested. All T/P levels located at 1.1150 and 1.1050 were already reached.

A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend was performed on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0600.

One month ago, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 and 1.0700 (key levels) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (prominent monthly level) where the recent bullish pullback was initiated.

During the last few weeks, the level of 1.1000 was considered a significant supply level to offer a valid sell entry, and it has been already done.

A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was established around the mentioned supply level.

Previously, a bearish closure below 1.0800 (the reversal pattern neckline) confirmed the depicted reversal pattern. An estimated bearish target is located at 1.0620.

Today, bearish persistence below 1.0800 (neckline of the depicted reversal pattern) is mandatory to allow a further bearish decline to occur towards 1.0730 and 1.0620.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Januari 15, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news on the Trade Balance, ECOFIN Meetings, and French Gov Budget Balance is due to be released. The US will deliver economic data on the Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Core PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0917.

Strong Resistance:1.0911.

Original Resistance: 1.0900.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0889.

Target Inner Area: 1.0864.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0839.

Original Support: 1.0828.

Strong Support: 1.0817.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0811.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Januari 15, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data, but the US will reveal data on the Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Core PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 118.57.

Resistance. 2: 118.34.

Resistance. 1: 118.11.

Support. 1: 117.82.

Support. 2: 117.59.

Support. 3: 117.36.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 15, 2016

EUR/USD: The condition remains unchanged in the market just as it was yesterday. The situation in the market requires some tact at present. The movements in the market have been transitory and unreliable, but the price is very likely to go upwards towards the resistance line at 1.0950. This expectation would make sense as long as the price is unable to go below the support line at 1.0800.

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USD/CHF: It is still possible that this currency pair would go further upwards. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the overbought region. Unless the CHF experience lots of stamina, the USD/CHF pair could be seen making further bullish effort from here. There is the resistance level of 1.0100, which has been tested and could be retested.

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GBP/USD: Long trades are not recommended in this market unless the price goes upwards by at least 300 pips. This is the only action that could hinder the start of a new bullish bias; otherwise, rallies ought to be seen as good chances to go short because the outlook for the market is bearish.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has consolidated so far this week. The consolidation is taking place in the context of a downtrend, and when a breakout occurs, it is more likely to be in favor of bears. This expectation would be rational as long as the price does not go above the supply level of 119.50.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross simply consolidated yesterday, in the context of an extant bearish outlook. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern is valid in the market, and the price could test the demand zone of 127.50 on condition that there is no upward movement of about 300 pips.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 15, 2016

On the H1 chart, we should note that the bullish path is alive above the 200 SMA, and the price action is showing strength of bulls. One scenario is calling for a breakout above the level of 99.22, but we can still expect a sideways move here until the index re-tests the support zone of 98.79 in coming days. The MACD indicator is at the positive territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.22 / 99.49

H1 chart's support levels: 98.79 / 98.39

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 99.22, take profit is at 99.49, and stop loss is at 98.94.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 15, 2016

The pair is still doing bearish consolidation below the resistance level of 1.4464, and now it is expected to do another breakout lower towards the level of 1.4309. However, as we can see on the H1 chart, if GBP/USD does a consolidation above 1.4464, then we can expect another rally towards the 200 SMA price zone.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4464 / 1.4555

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4373 / 1.4309

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is found at 1.4373, take profit is at 1.4309, and stop loss is at 1.4437.

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Daily analysis of Silver for January 14, 2016

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Overview

The silver price showed some positive attempts to move above the 13.96 level yesterday. Trading is still confined inside the sideways range that appears on the chart. It is waiting to breach one of its lines represented by the 13.65 support and 14.25 resistance to detect next targets clearly. We remind you that breaching the mark of 14.25 will allow the price to achieve some intraday gains reaching 15.30 mainly. Breaking the 13.65 level will put the price under negative pressure. Its main targets begin at 13.00. Until now, the sideways range prevails in intraday trading between the 13.65 support and 14.25 resistance, waiting to break one of these levels to detect next targets clearly. Look at our morning report to recognize the expected targets from the breach. An expected trading range for today is between the 13.65 support and 14.35 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 14, 2016

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Overview

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the next long-term Fibonacci level at 165.67. On the upside, breaches above the minor resistance at 173.35 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below the 180.36 support, which turned into resistance, and bring resumption of the fall. A fall from 195.86 is currently viewed as a correction and would first target 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. We assess the depth of correction based on reactions to 165.67 and the structure of the decline. A break of 180.36 will bring a rebound, but we expect the strong resistance to limit the upside and bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.91; (P) 170.10; (R1) 170.70

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