Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 17, 2015

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A few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area of 1.5900, which has been providing the GBP/USD pair with significant resistance.

Recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing candles, closing below the level of 1.5220 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This supported the bearish side of the market in the long term.

A long-term bearish target is projected towards the level of 1.4800 for this reversal pattern.

The previous demand level of 1.5200 (the origin of a previous bullish engulfing weekly candlestick) was broken to the downside a month ago. This bearish tendency was confirmed by the Shooting Star and the bearish engulfing weekly candlesticks of the previous weeks.

Hence, a quick bearish decline towards the weekly demand level of 1.4950 was expected as a result of the bearish breakdown below 1.5200.

Note that an obvious weekly closure below 1.4950 is needed to clear the way towards 1.4800 (long-term bearish target). Otherwise, another bullish pullback towards 1.5350 should be expected.

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Prominent demand levels at 1.5350 and 1.5200 were broken down a few weeks ago. These levels currently constitute prominent supply to be watched for new sell entries.

Recently, the key level of 1.5200 was temporarily breached to the upside before a daily bearish engulfing candlestick was expressed around 1.5330 on November 20.

Bearish persistence below 1.5200 and then 1.5050 (previous weekly bottom) enhanced a further bearish decline towards the weekly demand level of 1.4950 (corresponding to the lower limit of the depicted channel).

A bullish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed around 1.4950 earlier this month on December 3.

A bullish pullback towards 1.5200-1.5230 was expressed as the GBP/USD pair managed to hold above 1.5000 and 1.5100.

This week, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.5230. Two bearish engulfing daily candlesticks have already been expressed. The level of 1.4950 is the new key level to be watched for price action.

Trading Recommendation:

A valid sell entry was suggested anywhere around the supply level of 1.5250. S/L should be placed above 1.5300.

Risky traders can wait for bearish closure below 1.4950 to sell the GBP/USD pair. An initial bearish target would be located at 1.4850. S/L should be set as daily closure above the entry level.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 17, 2015

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The EUR/USD pair moved lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have previously pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (August, September, October and November) reflected strong bearish rejection, which existed around the level of 1.1450.

Hence, the long-term projected target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakout below the monthly demand level of 1.0555 occurs before the end of this month (December).

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On August 24, the market looked overbought as bulls were pushing the pair further above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Shortly after, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish rejection. An intraday sell entry was suggested. All T/P levels located at 1.1150 and 1.1050 were already reached.

A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend has been performed on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets projected at 1.0800 and 1.0600.

Three weeks ago, daily persistence below the level of 1.0700 (key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (prominent monthly low) where the recent bullish pullback was initiated.

This week, the level of 1.1000 constituted a significant supply level to offer a valid sell entry. S/L should be placed above 1.1010. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.0900 and 1.0810.

On the other hand, an obvious bearish closure below 1.0820 is needed to allow a further bearish decline towards 1.0730 and possibly 1.0550 again.

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Gold analysis for December 17 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the level of $1,065.00. In the daily time frame, I found a weak demand bar, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The trend is downward in the mid- and long terms. In the H4 time frame, we can observe a spike (buying climax) with a very wide spread of bars due to the Fed's rate hike by 25bps. I found lower swing highs and another rejection from our supply trend line, which is a sign of a downward continuation. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the level of $1,063.00 was broken and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the level of $1,050.00 is next support.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,076.00

R2: 1,079.35

R3: 1,085.45

Support levels:

S1: 1,065.20

S2: 1,061.20

S3: 1,056.20

Trading recommendations: Watch for selling opportunities. The trend is downward in the short and mid terms.

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Technical analysis of Silver for December 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading around the level of $14.07 now testing the trend-line resistance as seen here. The metal needs to push through $14.60 to turn bullish in the medium term. On a flip side, bearish reversal would encourage for bears to take control back. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and watch for more evidence. Immediate support is seen at $13.60, while resistance is seen at $14.60. A push through $14.60 would give us the required confidence to buy on dips.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for December 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around the levels of $1,066.00 right now drifting sideways in the channel shown in the chart. A drop to the levels of $1,052.00/55.00 should be watched for a bullish reaction. Bulls are expected to take control from there holding lows of $1,045.00. It is hence recommended to either remain long from earlier with risk below $1,045.00 or flat now. Immediate support is seen at $1,055.00 followed by $1,045.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,080.00 and higher. Bears should remain in control at least until $1,052.00/55.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat and look for an opportunity to re-enter longs around $1,052.00/55.00 on a bullish bounce.

Good luck!

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EUR/NZD analysis for December 17, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards .As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6018 in a high volume. In the H4 time frame, I found strong head and shoulders formation confirmed. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since I expect lower prices. I had placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of 1.6070, Fibonacci expansion 100% at the level of 1.5840 (broken) and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the level of 1.5470.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6190

R2: 1.6240

R3: 1.6315

Support levels:

S1: 1.6035

S2: 1.5990

S3: 1.5910

Trading recommendations : Buying EUR/NZD looks very risky at this stage since the price confirmed head and shoulders formation. Watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around 132.92 at the moment. The pair has reversed from 133.75 facing interim resistance there. Bears should remain in control until prices stay below 133.75 going ahead. It is hence recommended to remain short with risk at 134.50 now. Immediate resistance is seen at 133.75 followed by 134.50 and higher, while support is found at the level of 131.50 and lower looking for an opportunity to drop to at least 131.50/70 in the sessions to come.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short with stop at 134.50, a target 131.50

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair dropped to the level of 1.4740 after the Fed's announcement before pulling back sharply. The pair has finally bounced off the intermediary support trend line at 1.3800. Also, the Fibonacci 0.786 support has held well until now. The pair can be expected to rally through the level of 1.5300 at least if not higher. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk at 1.4700. Immediate support is seen at 1.4700 followed by 1.4550 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5000 followed by 1.5150 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop at 1.4700.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 17/12/2015

Global macro overview for 17/12/2015:

The UK released an important set of economic data on retail sales today. The strong data significantly beat the expectations. Market participants expected retail sales with auto fuel at the level of 0.6% m/m (3.0%y/y), but the data came in at the level of 1.7%m/m (5.0%y/y). Nevertheless, please remember that these are sorts of numbers you would expect to see in this time of year as the Black Friday strongly featured in sales readings.

The GBP/USD pair positively responded to the news, but then reversed and got back into the daily trading range. Currently, the pair is trading at the level of 1.4944 and the next support is seen at the level of 1.4894.

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Global macro overview for 17/12/2015

Global macro overview for 17/12/2015:

The Fed raised the short-term interest rate to 0.25% at its yesterday's meeting as expected. It validates the US economic recovery after the crisis of 2008. Moreover, the further rate hikes are expected, but the overall rate increasing process will remain gradual and data-dependent. The inflation expectation picked up recently and the targeted level of 2% is still on the table, but it might be updated if needed. As Janet Yellen mentioned during the Fed's press conference, the employment has significantly recovered, but weakness remains in particular wage growth, which is lower due to lack of inflationary pressure.

The US dollar index bounced from the support level of 97.18 and even broke above the intraday resistance at the level of 98.33. Nevertheless, it is still trading below the long-term important resistance at the level of 100.50.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 17, 2015

General overview for 17/12/2015 09:50 CET

The internal wave progression of the wave b green is evolved into a more complex and time-consuming structure. Inside of this structure, the wave c green to the downside is still missed and a projected target is seen at the level of 132.13.

Support/Resistance:

134.74 - WR2

134.57 - Swing High

133.76 - Intraday Resistance

133.62 - WR1

133.11 - Weekly Pivot

132.70 - Intraday Support

132.12 - 50%Fibo

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing sell orders only if the level of 132.70 is violated. SL orders should be placed at the level of 133.30 and TP orders should be placed at the level of 132.14.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 17, 2015

General overview for 17/12/2015 09:30 CET

The main count has been invalidated and the alternative count is in play now. This alternative count indicates a possible impulsive wave progression from a low of 1.2850, which is about to complete. Currently, the market is in the corrective sub-cycle (wave 4 black) and there is one more wave to the upside missed ( wave 5 black) to complete the impulsive cycle. This last wave ( wave 5 purple) is the last one in a greater cycle progression. It might end the whole advance that started at the level of 0.9428.

Support/Resistance:

1.3926 - WR1

1.3847 - Intraday Resistance

1.3677 - Intraday Support

1.3646 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider buying on dips in this market with SL below the level of 1.3677 and TP at the level of 1.3928.

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USDX technical analysis for December 17, 2015

The US dollar index gave the first bullish reversal signal ahead of the FOMC meeting by breaking above and out of the downward sloping wedge. When I identified the wedge pattern, I found that dollar's strength was to come back and US dollar bears should be cautious.

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Black lines - bullish wedge

Blue line - bullish divergence

A couple of days days ago, I identified the bullish wedge and the bullish divergence in the US dollar index the 4-hour chart. A buy signal would be given once the price broke out of the wedge. After yesterday's FOMC announcement, the US dollar index got very volatile as it usually does in circumstances like this. It was an important day for the greenback. The index pulled back but failed to break below the critical support of 75.

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The 50% Fibonacci retracement held very well in the weekly chart after the FOMC meeting, and as we expected the USDX started its next upward journey. Now it is important to break above resistance of 99 and hold above 97.50. As long as the price is above 97.50, we remain bullish on the US dollar.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold technical analysis for December 17, 2015

Gold price started moving upwards yesterday heading resistance at $1,080 before the FOMC rate announcement, but bulls could not hold the price at that level, as it got rejected and pulled back amid the stronger US dollar.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price tried to break out of the bearish channel, but got rejected. The price also did not manage to break above the Ichimoku cloud. Resistance is seen at $1,080. Support is at $1,046. Bears are still in control of the longer- and medium-term trend. The short-term trend is neutral.

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Nothing has changed my view on the weekly chart. The price should start bouncing towards $1,120-30. Downward moves are limited to $1,020-30 as I do not see much potential to the downside as we have not seen bounces for a long time.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 17, 2015

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Wave summary:

A breakout below 1.6049 has forced a new short-term count. We still regard the level of 1.5784 as a low for wave 2 and the rally of this low as the start of a new impulsive rally (wave i), while the wave ii has turned into an expanded flat correction. Wave ii could be over at 1.5991, which will confirm a breakout above 1.6246. As long as minor resistance at 1.6246 protects the upside, the risk remains for a move closer to 1.5930, but it is not necessary.

Above 1.6246, the market will call for a continuation higher to 1.6749 and higher to 1.7131.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy only on a break above 1.6246 with stop placed at 1.5985.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 17, 2015

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Wave summary:

A correction in wave b ended at 132.39 and we continue to watch for a breakout above 133.78 confirming that wave c is unfolding higher towards 135.34 and possibly even higher to 136.69.

Ideally, short-term minor support at 132.65 will protect the downside for an expected breakout above 133.78. Only a breakout below support at 132.39 keeps wave b alive for a move closer to 132.11 and maybe even closer to 131.52 before wave c is ready to take over.

Trade recommendation:

We are long EUR from 132.90 with stop placed at 132.40. If you are not long yet, then buy on a break above 133.78 with stop placed at 132.60.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 17, 2015

EUR/USD: After testing the resistance line at 1.1050, this currency trading instrument got corrected to the downside. Nevertheless, this could be seen as a mere correction in the context of an uptrend, because the price should go below the support line of 1.0800 before it could be assumed that the bullish bias is over.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair faces two challenges: the euro is strong and the Swiss franc could potentially rally before the Christmas Eve. Nonetheless, the USD might rally against other major currencies. Any rallies that are seen in this market should be taken as short-selling signals, because the bearish outlook would be in place until the great resistance level of 1.0000 is overcome.

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GBP/USD: This week, the cable fell by 200 pips, leading to a clear Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The price has moved below the distribution territory of 1.5000, going towards the accumulation territory of 1.4950.

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USD/JPY: After testing the demand level of 120.50, the USD/JPY pair moved upwards by 170 pips this week. This is happening in the context of a downtrend, though the bias would turn bullish once the price goes above the supply level of 122.50 (for the bearish trend is now threatened). Since the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for the month of December, this is very likely to occur.

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EUR/JPY: A closer look at the 4-hour chart reveals that this cross is in a bullish mode, though the price has moved sideways so far the week. The sideways movement cannot last forever. The price is likely to journey further upwards from here, as bulls target the supply zones of 134.00 and 134.50.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 17, 2015

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is calling for the bullish market from the levels of 0.9785, 0.9845, and 0.9908 since last week. Today, the level of 0.9908 represents support 1. Moreover, it should be noticed that the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the first support and first resistance, which set at the 0.9908 and 1.0046 respectively. As it is known, the chronicle will probably repeat itself at these levels again. Therefore, as an upward trend is still strong in the H1 chart, it will be good to buy above the level of 0.9908 with the first target of 0.9984 (minor resistance on the same chart). It will call for an uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 1.0045 in coming hours. Also, we should bear in mind that the strong resistance (1.0046) is coinciding with the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, a stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Consequently, the stop loss should be placed below the support of 0.9908 at the level of 0.9865.

Observations:

  • We expect a new range about 150 pips in coming days.
  • The key level will set at the level of 1.0046.
  • The support of the USD/CHF pair has already set at 0.9908.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 17, 2015

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Overview:

  • The resistance is seen at the level of 1.5034, and a double top is placed at 1.5062 in the H4 chart. Also, it should be noted that the daily pivot point had already placed at 1.5034 in the same time frame. Consequently, the descending movement will probably be lower than the level of 1.5034 with a targets at 1.4894 in order to try breaking a double bottom. If the pair is able to break the double bottom at 1.4894, it will continue moving towards the levels of 1.4854 (support 2). On the contrary, the support was already found at 1.4854. Furthermore, it should be noted that it will rather profitable to buy above this level to retest this level in the long period. Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the level of 1.4854 with targets at 1.4903 and 1.5033 to retest the support from below again.

General idea about the pivot point.

  • Resistance 3 and support 3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well in the sideways markets as the prices are most likely to be located between resistance 1 and support 1. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and even reach resistance 2 and resistance 3 or support 2 and support 3. If the trend breaks resistance or support, it is likely to result in a significant price movement.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 17, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic news on the Italian Trade Balance, ECB Economic Bulletin, and German Ifo Business Climate is due to be released. The US will unveil data on the Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Current Account, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0926.

Strong Resistance:1.0920.

Original Resistance: 1.0909.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0898.

Target Inner Area: 1.0873.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0848.

Original Support: 1.0837.

Strong Support: 1.0826.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0820.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 17, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on the Trade Balance, and the US will publish news on the Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Current Account, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 123.04.

Resistance. 2: 122.80.

Resistance. 1: 122.56.

Support. 1: 122.26.

Support. 2: 122.02.

Support. 3: 121.78.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 17, 2015

The USDX is trying to do a bullish consolidation above the 200 SMA in the H1 chart, after the Fed's interest rate hike to 0.50%, in an announcement made at Wednesday's session. Technically, we should see a rally towards the resistance level of 98.80 where a pullback can happen to take a breath before any rallies that could be seen. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.80 / 99.19

H1 chart's support levels: 98.14 / 97.60

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USDX breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is found at 98.14, take profit is at 97.60, and stop loss is at 98.69.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 17, 2015

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD moved lower, but still in a mixed manner after the Fed's meeting which raises the interest rates for first time over the last 7 years. Currently, we can expect another decline towards the support level of 1.4962 which was tested during Wednesday's session. However, we cannot discard a rebound above the resistance level of 1.5032.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5032 / 1.5079

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4962 / 1.4918

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 1.5032, take profit is at 1.5072, and stop loss is at 1.4986.

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Daily analysis of Silver for December 16, 2015

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Overview

Silver price shows a slight bullish bias to approach from retesting the level of 13.96, positively influenced by stochastic that we mentioned in our last report, noticing that the indicator loses its bullish momentum accompanied by the mentioned level, which supports the chances for resuming the main bearish trend that moves within the bearish channel that appears in the image. Therefore, our bearish trend expectations will remain valid and active in the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50 which reminds us that our next targets is seen at 13.50 extending to 13.00, while achieving it conditioned by holding below 13.96 and 14.20. Holding below the levels of 13.96 and 14.20 represents the main condition for achieving the suggested targets.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for December 16, 2015

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Overview

A fall in the GBP/JPY pair, which began at 188.79, is still in progress with an intraday bias towards the downside. As noted before, a consolidation pattern from 180.36 was completed at 188.79 and a deeper decline should be seen back to the support zone of 180.36/64. Nonetheless, a breakout of minor resistance at 186.33 would now dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 188.79. The breach of the medium term-trend line support is taken as a sign of trend reversal. This is supported by bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. Also, GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the psychological level of 200. A breakout of 174.86 will confirm trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we should be cautious about strong resistance from 199.80/200.00 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.32; (P) 183.26; (R1) 183.96;

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