Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 14, 2018

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The recent bearish momentum of the GBP/USD has shown signs of weakness since September 5 when an ascending bottom was established around 1.2800

The GBP/USD pair is currently testing the depicted downtrend line which comes to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.

This price zone (1.3025-1.3090) corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels where evident bearish rejection should be anticipated.

As long as successful bullish breakout above 1.3090 is maintained, further bullish advancement will probably occur towards 1.3200, 1.3250 and 1.3315.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below 1.3020 (50% Fibo level) will probably invalidate the bullish breakout scenario. Hence, the short-term outlook would remain bearish towards 1.2840 and 1.2780.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 14, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a Head and Shoulders pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

Recently, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

On the daily chart, for the bearish side of the market to be dominant, the pair needs quick bearish decline below 1.1500.

However, the price level of 1.1520 stood as a prominent demand level where the current bullish pullback was initiated.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trapped between the depicted technical levels (1.1750 - 1.1500).

Another bullish movement is expected towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750) where bearish rejection should be anticipated.

On the other hand, any bullish breakout above 1.1750 will allow further bullish advance towards 1.1850.

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The dollar fell under the crossfire

When enemies strike from all sides, you do not know where to go. "Bulls" in the EUR / USD went into a rapid counterattack after the statistics on US inflation came out, and Mario Draghi downplayed the importance of panic in the markets of developing countries and political risks in Italy at the press conference following the September meeting of the ECB. Before that, rumors of a new round of talks between Washington and Beijing had already disturbed the sleep of the dollar's fans, but as it turned out, these were florets. Berries were ripe later.

The release of data on the US labor market, in general, and statistics on average wages, in particular, returned the location of the "bears" for EUR / USD at the end of the week by September 7. Labor compensation increased by 2.9% y / y, demonstrating the best dynamics since 2009. The market started talking about the potential overclocking of inflation under the influence of increased activity of consumers, which raised the chances of four acts of monetary restriction of the Fed in 2018 above 80%. In fact, everything turned out differently: neither the producers' prices nor the consumer prices reached the forecasts of Bloomberg experts. In the air hung the question: is it worth the Fed to raise the rate as aggressively as before (once a quarter)? Is it possible that in 2019 it should be left at all? If so, the dollar will lose its most important asset - divergence in monetary policy. If the ECB also starts normalizing, the main currency pair will easily restore the uptrend.

Of course, the rising rates are not the only trump card of the "American". No matter how much Donald Trump complained about the strong currency to the local gas exporters, he helps the USD index rise. It's about developing panic in the markets of developing countries in response to Washington's trade wars and the growing risks of a slowing global economy. The US dollar is quite sensitive to the dynamics of the volatility of EM currencies and the monetary units of developed countries.

Dynamics of the dollar and volatility

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In this regard, the increase in rates by central banks of Turkey and Russia allowed to stabilize the situation in the sector and became one of the factors of EUR / USD growth. Moreover, Mario Draghi does not think that the problems of emerging markets are the reason for the slowdown in the euro area economy. Theoretically, the export-oriented currency bloc could get a hole due to a drop in global demand, but for now, it's too early to say: the scale of import duties already imposed is scanty compared to the economies of the US and their competitors.

Of course, negotiations between Washington and Beijing do not necessarily have to end with a breakthrough, and the slowdown in consumer prices from 2.9% to 2.7% and core inflation from 2.4% to 2.2% may turn out to be a market noise. This will allow the dollar to recover.

Technically, if the bulls on the EUR / USD manage to gain a foothold above the level of 1,1705 (38.2% of the rising long-wave) and then take the resistance by 1,179, the targeting of the 88.6% target by the pattern of the Shark will increase substantially.

EUR / USD, the daily chart

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GBP / USD: plan for the US session on September 14. Bulls in the pound are exhausted?

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney supported GBP / USD. Pound buyers managed to gain a foothold above 1.3119 in the first half of the day, and while the trade is being conducted over this range, demand for the pound will remain, which opens a direct road to new weekly highs near 1.3165 and 1.3214, where I recommend fixing the profits. If you return to the support level of 1.3119 in the second half of the day, it is best to look at long positions in the pair after correction to the support area of 1.3086, on a false breakout, or on a rebound from 1.3042.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Pound sellers need a return to the support level of 1.3119, which recently acted as a resistance. A decrease in GBP / USD for this area in the second half of the day may cause the profit of large players to be fixed at the end of the week, which will lead to a stronger downward correction to the area of 1.3086 and 1.3042, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of further growth of the pound, good levels for selling remain weekly highs around 1.3165 and 1.3214.

Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average is above the 50-day moving average, which indicates the development of an uptrend - a signal to buy from large support levels with a decline.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on September 14. The upward potential of the euro is limited

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Euro buyers made another attempt at a growth in the European session, using yesterday's market support, but to consolidate above the resistance level of 1.1708 in the first half of the day did not succeed, as large players rushed to fix profit at the end of the week. The main task for the second half of the day is a repeat test and breakthrough of resistance 1.1708, from which the demand for EUR / USD will return, which will lead to the test of the highs of the past month in the area of 1.1733 and 1.1792, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a decline in the euro in the first half of the day, support will be in the area of 1.1674, otherwise, you can buy immediately for a rebound from 1.1641.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The sellers coped with the task in the first half of the day and formed a false breakout at the resistance level of 1.1708, which is the first signal for the opening of short positions in the euro in terms of declining to the support area of 1.1674 and updating the low around 1.1641, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a repeat rise above the resistance level of 1.1708, short positions in EUR / USD are best to search after the update of the high of 1.1733 or sell immediately for a rebound of 1.1792.

Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average is above the 50-day moving average, which indicates the development of an uptrend - a signal to buy from large support levels with a decline.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: Euro growth or weakening of the dollar?

Is the dollar cheaper or is the euro still growing? This issue is key for traders of the EUR / USD currency pair to understand the general outlook for further price movement. The task is not simple, because we need to unravel a fairly complex tangle of fundamental factors that affect the behavior of both the dollar and the euro.

Yesterday's events gave impetus to bulls EUR / USD, which by the end of the day, still managed to gain a foothold above the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart (that is, above the level of 1.1680). This level of resistance was important, as its overcoming allowed traders to enter and (most importantly) gain a foothold in the 17th figure. If the trading day ended below the above level, then there would be a risk of price retracement to the base of the 16th figure, that is, to the opening price. But the bulls were still able to show character and defined a new price environment for themselves 1.1680-1.1730, where the lower boundary of the range is the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1, and the "ceiling" is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe. The next levels of resistance are the price marks 1.1800 and 1.1885 (line Kijun-sen on the weekly chart), overcoming which will open the way to the 20th figure.

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These are quite ambitious plans, which will depend, in the first place, on three factors: first, the prospect of a trade conflict between the US and China (and the prospects for trade negotiations between Washington and Brussels); secondly, this is the position of the Fed, taking into account the uncertain figures of the August inflation in the US; and thirdly, it is the dynamics of key economic indicators in the euro area. On these "three elephants" there will be a further outlook for the growth of the euro / dollar pair. Brexit and political stability in Europe will also have an important impact on the pair, but if we consider only the possible dynamics of EUR / USD in the next month, these factors can be pushed to the background.

The American currency recently reacts sharply to the vicissitudes of the trade war. The US's relations with China are very ambiguous: even in the public arena, a double game is played. On the one hand, Washington and Beijing are voicing threats against each other, on the other hand, they are trying to resume the negotiation process. An apple of contention was even the question of who initiated the next dialogue. According to the information from the American press, it was the White House, and according to Trump, representatives of the PRC. But, by and large, it does not matter who first extended the hand of friendship, because for traders only the final result is significant. Moreover, official Beijing yesterday confirmed and welcomed the invitation of the Americans to participate in the new round of trade negotiations.

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Most likely, the negotiation process will stretch to the middle of November (or until the end of the year), as on November 6 elections to the US Congress will take place, and the political configuration may change significantly. Given this factor, it is unlikely that the Chinese will make hasty decisions, unless Trump does not sound really mutually beneficial terms. According to some experts, the White House came to the conclusion that the tactics of the last months had not been successful: China is responding with mirror measures and is ready for a protracted trade war. Therefore, recently signals on the market are sounding more often that leaders of superpowers can conclude a "truce" before the end of the year.

The US dollar in this context will lose its attractiveness, since now the American currency is regarded as an "island of security", that is, as a protective tool. Therefore, when the period of prolonged uncertainty is over, the Greenback's asset will remain only the hawkish policy of the Fed, which gives an advantage over many other currencies.

However, here everything is not so clear. For example, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams (who has the right to vote this year), who previously held a rather tough position, said last week that he "does not see an increase in inflationary pressures" and is surprised at the low rate of salary growth. It is worth noting that he said these words even before the release of weak data on the growth of inflation.

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Other members of the Fed are generally of the opinion that the regulator should gradually raise rates to "neutral". However, the question of where exactly this level is still under discussion. In other words, the growth of the dollar now largely depends on the further intentions of the Fed. In this regard, the key event of September will be the next meeting of the American regulator. Raising the rate, Fed members can voice an indecisive position on the December increase, and this fact will significantly weaken the US currency.

Summarizing the above, I note that the euro / dollar pair is now enjoying a rare coincidence: the immediate growth of the euro, which is due to the ECB's more hawkish position, coincided with the general weakening of the US dollar. The European currency will not be able to pull the northern trend of the pair independently, so the further price dynamics depends on the behavior of the greenback. Therefore, the focus remains on the US-China trade conflict and comments by FRS members about the prospects for monetary policy - in the context of a likely rate hike in December. The remaining fundamental factors will have an indirect effect on the pair.

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Control zones of EUR / USD as of September 14, 2018

The upward movement of the current week allowed to reach the weekly control zone of 1.1728-1.1710. The test zone allows you to close part of the purchases, and the rest is transferred to a breakeven, as the continued growth remains a priority.

Yesterday's growth made it possible to realize an upward model within the medium-term accumulation zone. Today, the pair is trading within a weekly short-term period of 1.1728-1.1710, which makes it possible to fix a long position. In the event of a large supply, the pair may resume movement within the accumulation zone formed by the extremes of August and September. To continue the growth will require the closure of today's US session above the level of 1.1728. This will indicate that any reduction will be corrective and will allow obtaining favorable prices for the purchase of the instrument at the beginning of next week.

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In the case of continued growth, its goal will be NCP 1/2 1.1830-1.1820. Now, the pair is trading at the high of August, which allows to assume the appearance of the offer and the depreciation, with the formation of a correctional model.

To cancel the upward movement, a strong fall in the exchange rate from the current levels will be required and the closing of today's trading is lower than NCP 1/2 1.1630-1.1621. This will give an opportunity to search for sales as early as Monday. The probability of forming this model is 30%, which makes it auxiliary. The test of the above-mentioned NCP 1/2 will allow you to get favorable prices for the purchase, so it makes sense to set a limit order with a stop not exceeding 30 points.

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The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on September 14. Bank of England declined to comment on the situation of Brexit

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Weak inflation data in the United States once again helped the pound, which led to the breakthrough of the resistance level of 1.3086 and the further formation of an upward trend. However, the absence of specifics on Brexit limits the growth of the pound. Buyers today need a breakthrough above the resistance level of 1.3119, from which you can open long positions in the calculation for the test of highs 1.3165 and 1.3214, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the pound is lowered in the first half of the day, an area of 1.3086 will provide interim support, while buying GBP / USD for a rebound is best from a low of 1.3042. Today, comments from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney can help the pound maintain an upward trend.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Bears need to form a false breakout of the resistance level of 1.3119 and return under it. The whole emphasis will be shifted to the speech of the head of the Bank of England. The main task of the sellers is to return to the support level of 1.3086, which will lead to a quick sale of the pound and a test of the low at 1.3042, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.3119 in the morning, short positions in GBP / USD are best sought after the update of new highs of 1.3165 and 1.3214.

Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average is above the 50-day moving average, which indicates the development of an uptrend - a signal to buy from large support levels with a decline.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 14th of September. The trading system "Regression channels". Mark Carney fears exit from the EU without a "deal"

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

CCI: 142.0156

The currency pair GBP / USD on Friday, September 14, continues the upward movement and fulfilled the level of Murray "7/8". In general, the upward trend in the pair remains, although the Bank of England did nothing for this during its meeting and announcement of the results of this meeting. Moreover, the Bank of England in the person of Mark Carney expressed, already once again, concern about the possible outcome of the negotiations on Brexit. According to Carney, an exit from the EU without a deal could seriously damage the UK economy, and this blow will be comparable to the 2008 crisis. No changes were made in the monetary policy. So, what do we have? The pound sterling continues to moderate growth, not related to the data from the UK. Accordingly, the reason for the strengthening of the pound is still data from the States. Yesterday's report on inflation in the US disappointed, as it was recorded a slowdown in inflation to 2.7%. Further, there are no new data that would signal an exacerbation of the trade conflict between the states and China. And we have already said more than once that the dollar has a tendency to grow on the escalation of trade conflicts initiated by Trump. As a result, we have the growth of the British currency, which is based exclusively on data from the United States and in no way reflects the situation in the UK, where Mark Carney, the head of the Central Bank, begins to sound the alarm and warn that if there is no "deal" with the EU, the consequences can be the most sad.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.3062

S2 - 1,3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.3123

R2 = 1.3184

R3 = 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues its upward movement and reached the level of 1.3123. A price rebound from this level will trigger a downward correction, but so far this has not happened, the purchase orders for 1.3184 remain valid.

Sell-positions are recommended to be opened in case of overcoming by movers of moving. In this case, the bears will take the initiative, and the shorts will be relevant for the purpose of 1.2939. Up to the moving-point at the moment about 100 points, so today it is unlikely to be expected to overcome.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro and the pound enjoy the weakness of the dollar

The dollar received several sensitive blows on Thursday, losing some of the advantages against European currencies.

Consumer prices rose in August by 0.2%, which was below the forecast, year-on-year growth of 2.7% against 2.9% a month earlier, the root inflation of 2.2% against 2.4% a month earlier. Experts did not expect a slowdown in inflation. For the market, this was an unpleasant surprise, as it increases the likelihood of a slowdown in the Fed's normalization policy.

A little later, the US Treasury announced that the budget deficit in August amounted to 214 billion, which is much worse than forecast, interest payments on debts amounted to 38 billion, or 17% of revenues, and this figure will only grow further.

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We have already paid attention to the behavior of the yield curve. The current dynamics indicate the probability of a recession already by the end of 2019. The growth of the budget deficit will accelerate, which in the near future can lead to a crisis, that is, inability to execute the budget. Tax cuts have led to an increase in corporate income, but additional funds are channeled. First of all, to operations for buying back shares and supporting capitalization, while real steps aimed at increasing industrial production have not yet been observed.

The tariff war launched by Trump against China was supposed to stimulate US corporations to return production facilities to the US, but in practice, there are no movements in practice.

EUR / USD

The ECB did not submit any new signals on Thursday at a meeting on monetary policy. The loan rate remained unchanged at zero level, the deposit and margin rates were maintained at 0.25% and 0.4% respectively, it was confirmed that the asset repurchase program would be completed in December.

At the same time, after the completion of the period of net purchases, reinvestment from the redemption of bonds will be continued, to the reduction of the balance of the ECB can start as early as next year, this will be a significant bullish factor for the euro.

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At the same time, the forecast for GDP growth for 2018 was reduced from 2.1% to 2.0%, in 2019 from 1.9% to 1.8%, the inflation forecast is confirmed at the same level. The euro almost did not react to the results of the meeting, continuing to trade in the sideways range, and began to rise only in the afternoon after the publication in the US of disappointing inflation data.

The external risks for the euro are mainly reflected in the expectations of falling demand, in many respects, precisely these fears caused the decline in the forecast for GDP.

Euro still remains the favorite against the dollar, today it is possible to exit above the trend line and move to the previous high of 1.1733.

GBP / USD

As expected, the Bank of England unanimously voted to maintain the rate at the current level of 0.75%, no changes in the monetary policy are planned. In the accompanying statement, there is a probability of higher than expected GDP growth in the 3rd quarter, after the publication of a strong report for July, the level of the natural interest rate, which corresponds to a neutral monetary policy, is seen by the Bank of England at the current stage at 1.5%, that is, plans to raise the rate three times in the next year or two.

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While the markets are set for another increase in May 2019, after Britain officially leaves the EU. The Brexit theme will remain dominant in the coming months, and the pound may maintain high volatility as too many factors look vague.

Pound bulls are determined decisively, in the next few days an attempt may be made to break the downtrend, for which the bulls will try to gain a foothold above the previous high of 1.3172 with a follow-up target at 1.3363.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. EUR / JPY for the week of September 14

Wave picture of the chart H4:

The direction of the trend is set by the upward wave of May 29. A distinct zigzag (A-B-C) can be traced in the structure.

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The wave pattern of the graph H1:

The bullish wave of August 13 is approaching a powerful potential reversal zone. The structure of the movement is not complete, but it allows us to wait for a rollback in the near future.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

Since September 10, the price forms an ascending segment, occupying the place of the final part (C) in a larger model. Correction is expected in the coming days.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Sales of the pair at price retracements are high-risk. For all trading styles at the end of all counter moves, prices are recommended to track buy signals of the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 133.10 / 133.60

- 131.30 / 131.80

Support zones:

- 129.80 / 129.30

Explanations to the figures: In a simplified wave analysis, waves consisting of 3 parts (A-B-C) are used. For analysis, 3 main TFs are used, on each one the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the wave counting according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure, the dotted - the expected movements.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from your trading systems!

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EUR / USD. 14th of September. The trading system "Regression channels". Euro grows, but ECB has nothing to do with it

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

–°CI: 161.8011

The currency pair EUR / USD on September 14 continues the growth that began on the previous day, not connected with the results of the ECB meeting or the speech of Mario Draghi. We continue to believe that the fall in the US currency was caused yesterday by weak inflation in the United States. Thus, by the present moment, the frustration effect associated with the disappointing CPI should have already weakened. Proceeding from this, to continue the ascending movement of the pair, new fundamental reasons will be required. The euro continues to move up exclusively, thanks to America and the actions and statements of Donald Trump. Today, from macroeconomic events, only reports on retail sales and industrial production in the States for August can be identified. These reports may well affect the movement of the currency pair, but everything will depend on how optimistic the figures in these reports will be. The forecasts indicate a possible decrease in the growth rates of retail sales and an increase in industrial production by 0.3%. We also continue to believe that Trump took the dollar seriously. And many of his actions, some even hidden from the public, will be directed precisely at the depreciation of the dollar. There is no important news on the topic of the trade war, and we recommend, as before, to monitor any Trump messages, including his Twitter, and news from the White House.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.1658

S2 - 1,1597

S3 - 1.1536

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1719

R2 = 1,1780

R3 = 1.1841

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to move up, as indicated by the purple bars of the indicator Heikin Ashi. The goal, thus, for purchases now is the level of 1.1719, and in the case of its overcoming, 1.1780.

It is recommended to open short positions not earlier than traversing the moving average line. In this case, the target will be the level of Murray "5/8" - 1.1536, and the trend for the instrument will change to a descending one.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for September 14, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that price broke the resistance trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found the potential start of the rising channel, which also indicates that buying opportunities are preferable. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find a potential upward target and I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $6.855. Watch for buying opportunities.

Support/Resistance

Support cluster - $6.380

Upward target - $6.855

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 14, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.31737. According to the H4 time – frame, I found that price rejected from the projected resistance line at 1.3130, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a rising wedge pattern in creation near the resistance line, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2900.

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USD/JPY analysis for September 14, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 111.95. According to the H4 time – frame, I found the confirmed 30-day continuational inverted head and shoulders pattern (bullish) in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found the re-test of the neckline at 111.70, which is another sign of the strength. Watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 113.15.

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EUR / USD pair: The outlook for the euro is fairly good as the US budget deficit doubled in just one year

Data released yesterday on inflation in the US exerted pressure on the US dollar, which fell against the euro and the pound, allowing to form new short-term upward trends in these trading instruments.

Statements made by the central banks of the United Kingdom and the eurozone did not differ much from similar statements made at past meetings. In more detail about the decision of the European Central Bank, I mentioned here . Plans and Decision of The of the Bank of England are Described in detail found here regarding, the Decision and Plans of the Bank of England.

Inflation in the US is weakening

As I noted above, inflation data in the US exerted pressure on the US dollar. Since despite the growth, the report turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts, and the base index showed a minimal increase at all.

According to the US Department of Labor, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in August compared in July, while economists forecast an increase of 0.3%. The base index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1%, compared to economists' expectations of 0.2% increase.

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But in comparison with the same period of the previous year, growth in general slowed. If in July the annual growth was 2.9%, then in August prices grew only by 2.7%. The base CPI index grew by 2.2% in August compared to the same period of the previous year, which is also lower than the previous month.

On the one hand, a reduction in consumer price growth will allow the Fed not to rush in raising interest rates; on the other hand, strong economic growth and growth in the labor market do not allow inflation to be inflated to the proper level, which could in the future complicate the situation in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System.

Positive data on the US labor market has long not surprised traders, and have also been ignored this time.

The US Labor Market

According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from 2 to 8 September decreased by 1,000 and amounted to 204,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 210,000.

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The monthly US budget deficit in August almost doubled compared to the same period last year. This happened at the expense of a serious increase in the government's expenses, as incomes fell significantly.

According to the data, the US budget deficit amounted to 214 billion dollars in August 2018 against 107.7 billion dollars in August 2017. The increase in government spending was 30%.

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Yesterday, the WSJ survey was published, in which most economists believe that the impact of import duties on the economy will be limited. The US GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2018, by 2.4% in 2019 and by 1.8% in 2020. The average probability of a recession in the US in the next 12 months is 18%.

Speeches of Fed representatives in yesterday afternoon also were ignored by the market. For example, Raphael Bostic, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said that the US economy needs a gradual increase in rates, as its condition is pretty good. Bostik does not expect a jump in inflation above 2% in the near future.

Technical analysis:

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the gradual approach to the large monthly highs around 1.1700 and 1.1740 will limit the upside potential in the short term. However, one can already seriously talk about the resumption of an upward trend in risky assets. Longer long positions in the euro should be gathered after correction to the area of support levels 1.1675 and 1.1640, from which the lower boundary of the rising channel will be built.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 13th of September. Results of the day. Meeting of the Bank of England: nothing interesting

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 66p - 120p - 155p - 123p - 102p.

The average amplitude over the last 5 days is 113p (132p).

The British pound sterling on Thursday, September 13, also began to grow on the American trading session. And this was also connected not with the meeting of the Central Bank of the country-issuer, but with the slowed-down inflation in the States, which we already wrote in the review of the currency pair EUR / USD. Thus, the meeting of the Bank of England, or rather, its results were ignored by traders, although, by and large, there was nothing to react to. The key rate and the monthly volume of asset purchase remained at the same level, the accompanying statement did not contain any extra information. The only thing that can be noted is the fears of the British regulator in the results of negotiations on Brexit. But this is quite a logical and expected statement, which so far has no consequences for itself, the parties can still agree. In general, the Bank of England is determined to further gradually tighten monetary policy, if it does not interfere with the results of Brexit. But the inflation in the States interested traders much more. The CPI slowed to 2.7% y / y in August, which caused some concern for the future of this indicator. However, in any case, we consider such a market reaction to short-term inflation, and the positions of the euro and the pound will now depend on Trump's plans for the near future regarding the US currency rate. If, as we assume, the US leader set a goal to lower the rate, he will achieve this by any methods, some of which, most likely, will not even be known. Thus, technical indicators will continue to help determine the current trend, depriving traders of the need to guess the possible actions of Trump, hidden from the public.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair resumed its upward movement. Thus, now it is recommended to trade on the rise with the targets of 1.3152 and 1.3203. Turning the MACD indicator down will signal the beginning of the downward correction.

Short positions are still not recommended. Short positions will become relevant after a change in the trend for the instrument downward, which can be determined by fixing the price below the critical line.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD for September 13: day resistance to the continuation of the weekly correction

GBP / USD

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Last week, the supports strength (1.2904 - 1.2820) helped keep the pair from falling. With the beginning of this week, the pound is trying to take a weekly short-term trend, but the situation now is that the continuation of the weekly upward correction is possible only after the players have fully dominated the rise on the daily timeframe. For this, the day cloud breakdown must be completed. Standing back from current resistance and returning under support can provoke bearish activity and become the beginning of a new stage of decline.

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At the lower halves at the moment we observe braking and a slight downward correction. This is due to the fact that the target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud has been worked out, and also the resistance of the day cloud has been met. The further struggle will develop for the orientations of the older time intervals. To change the mood and the appearance of initial prospects for players on the downside, now you need to go down into the bear zone against the H1 cloud and eliminate the gold cross N4. As a result, the support in the area of the weekly Tenkan (1.2976) today can be considered the most significant.

Perspective resistance: 1.3060 - 1.3179 - 1.3226.

Significant support: 1.2976 - 1.2901 - 1.2820.

Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Bank of England left the rates unchanged and expects further tightening of the policy. Brexit remains the main obstacle

Today, the key event for the British pound was the decision of the Bank of England on interest rates, which is expected to remain unchanged. However, there was no change in the GBP/USD pair, which continued to trade through the weekly highs on this decision.

The comments of the UK regulator also had no effect and had no impact on the markets, as they were quite predictable and justified.

According to the minutes of the Bank of England meeting, the key interest rate remained unchanged at the level of 0.75%. It should be noted that the number of votes for retaining the key rate unchanged was 9 versus 0, which indicates a unified view of the Bank of England's representatives on the future policy. None of the votes was given for raising or lowering the interest rate.

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The Bank of England's planned asset purchases also remained unchanged.

Judging by the statements made after the publication of the interest rate decision, the regulator expects further tightening of the policy to return to the target inflation rate of 2%.

It is worth noting that the current economic dynamics in the UK, corresponds to the August forecasts, which allows you not to delay increasing interest rates. The only problem is the Brexit situation. The Bank of England is also concerned about the situation in the financial markets, which signals even greater uncertainty about Brexit.

The Central Bank is also confident that the risks to world economic growth have increased, as measures to trade between the US and China will have a negative impact along with trade disagreements with Canada.

The British pound began to lose its positions won at the beginning of the European session after a statement was made that further increases in interest rates are likely to be gradual and limited.

From all that has been said, we can conclude that the Bank of England does not intend to hurry up with the tightening of the policy, although for this there are all grounds. The main problem remains the situation with Brexit, whose solution will allow the regulator to build longer-term plans and consider the monetary policy course in a completely different direction.

As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, the buyers still need a breakthrough of the large resistance at 1.3080, only above this will be possible to speak with confidence about the formation of a new upward movement with the update of the highs in areas of 1.3170 and 1.3260.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 14, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6580. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6580 to the bottom around 0.6498. But the pair has rebounded from the bottom of 0.6498 to close at 0.6520. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.6452, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 0.6580, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 0.6452, the market will decline further to 0.6406 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 0.6539 with the first target at 0.6452 and further to 0.6406. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 0.6580.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 14, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.3095.

On the H1 chart, the level of 1.3095 coincides with the daily pivot point, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the pivot, the market is still in an uptrend.

But, major support is seen at the level of 1.3061.

Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100).

Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside.

Therefore, the first support will be found at the level of 1.3095 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 1.3181.

If the trend breaks the first resistance at 1.3181, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 1.3230 in order to test the daily resistance 2.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for September 14, 2018

Bitcoin has gained quite impulsively yesterday which led the price above $6,500 but with a weak momentum. The bullish pressure is still quite weak in comparison to the recent bearish pressure. However, a daily close above the dynamic level of 20 EMA, holding BTC price as resistance, is expected to provide the required pressure for the upcoming bullish momentum with a target towards $8,000. As the price remains above $6,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 6000, 6500

RESISTANCE: 7500, 8000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for September 14, 2018

EUR/GBP has been quite volatile and corrective at the edge of support area of 0.8880 from where further bullish momentum is expected in this pair. EUR has been dominating GBP for a few weeks, whereas GBP has still been weighed down by the BREXIT impact and economic reports with mixed readings.

GBP has been quite indecisive in light of mixed figures in economic reports this week. Indeed, positive GDP data and Average Earning Index were overshadowed by a decline in Manufacturing Production and an increase in Claimant Count Change. Moreover, the Bank of England left the key policy rate unchanged as expected at 0.75%. Today Bank of England's Governor Carney is going to speak about further plans regarding wrapping up the BREXIT issue in the coming weeks and about monetary policy decisions. Today's speech is expected to inject certain volatility and determine market sentiment for the nearest days.

On the other hand, EUR has been quite solid in light of the recent economic events and reports this week that is expected to lead to further gains over GBP in the process. In the context of the trade talks and tech fuel rally in European stocks, the currency has gained good momentum. Today eurozone's Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 16.3B from the previous figure of 16.7B.

Meanhwile, though eurozone's economic report today is expected to reveal soft figures, any positive actual reading in the report is sure to encourage further momentum for EUR against GBP. EUR is likely to keep momentum for long.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has rejected 0.8880 area with daily candles for several times which does indicate the presence of the bulls at the area whereas having a long-term bullish trend in place, the price is expected to push higher with target towards 0.9050 resistance area in the coming days. While being inside the rising channel and being above 0.8850 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.8850-80

RESISTANCE: 0.9000-50

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE and IMPULSIVE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair: plan for the European session on September 13. All attention to the ECB interest rate decision

To open long positions for EUR / USD pair, you need:

Long positions in the euro can be seen after the decrease to the middle of the channel in the support range of 1.1600-1.1605. The formation of a false breakdown will allow us to count on the repeated growth of EUR / USD to the weekly highs in the area of 1.1640 and their breakdown, which will lead to a new uptrend with the test of the area 1.1686 and 1.1730, where fixing profits are recommended. In case of a decline under the support level 1.1605 in the morning, the euro can be bought immediately for a rebound from the lower border of the channel at 1.1570.

To open short positions for EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers hold the pair under the resistance level of 1.1641, and it is already clear that the main move will depend on the ECB's decision on interest rates, as well as on comments made by the president of the central bank. If you can not get above 1.1641 in the morning, you can see the euro sales in terms of return and consolidation under the support level 1.1605, which will lead to a larger sale with a minimum test of 1.1570 and 1.1549, where fixing profits are recommended. In case of EUR / USD growth above 1.1641 resistance, opening short positions is best for a rebound from 1.1686.

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Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average is on par with the 50-day moving average. This suggests that the trade will be conducted in the side channel

Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for September 14, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite impulsive with the recent bearish pressure which led the price to reside at the edge of 0.9550 to 0.9650 support area in the process. USD has been struggling for gains amid the recent soft economic data. On the other hand, CHF is unaffected by neutral data. Meanhwile, USD is extending weakness.

This week Switzerland's PPI report was published with a decrease to 0.0% as expected from the previous value of 0.1%. As the difference is not that significant, the bearish momentum was not quite hampered in this process.

On the other hand, USD has been performing quite worse amid downbeat macroeconomic reports like PPI and CPI which made a direct impact on the market sentiment, leading to certain bearish pressure in the pair. Today US Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5% and Core Retail Sales is also expected to decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.6%.

As for the current scenario, USD has been weighed down by recent soft reports. Besides, sour forecasts for the today's macroeconomic reports encourage further bearish pressure in the pair. If the US provides better than expected reports, certain volatility and counter momentum can be observed in this in for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has reached the support area of 0.9550 to 0.9650 area from where certain bullish momentum is expected with certain volatility in the market. Though the recent trend has been quite impulsive and bearish as well, certain counter momentum is expected from the support area which might be in form of retracement for further bearish momentum in the process. As the price remains below 0.9850 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.9550, 0.9650

RESISTANCE: 0.9850, 0.9950

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 14/09/2018

Markets make a return on USD towards risky assets with the help of better information from emerging markets, while the disappointment of CPI from the US has covered the earlier optimism around the US economy. The stock market in Asia is in a reconstruction mode.

Even though President Trump denied yesterday that he would be interested in a quick return to talks with China, investors switched to buying risk strengthened by a huge interest rate hike in Turkey (+625 bp) and lower-than-expected CPI reading from the US.

At night, we see that NZD, AUD and CAD perform best, although the changes are small. EUR / USD stopped just under 1.17, and USD / JPY - under 112.

On Friday, the 14th of September, the last trading session of the week will not be rich in macroeconomic data. Before noon, traders will only know the trade balance and wage dynamics in the Eurozone. At noon, there will be the speech of the Bank of England Governor - Mark Carney.

USD/JPY analysis for 14/09/2018:

The Prime Minister of Japan said overnight, that inflation is one of the measures of the monetary policy applied by the Bank of Japan, but the creation of jobs is a key factor. Much is still missing to achieve the price target, but Abe's confidence in the central bank's operations is high. He does not think that the Bank of Japan should maintain a very loose monetary policy forever. However, Kuroda and the company depend on when they start tightening.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. Since the time of Abe's speech, the Japanese yen strengthened slightly against the dollar, although on the other hand, it may simply be a downward reaction to the rise from yesterday's evening. USDJPY is currently around 111.80 after a new high was made at the level of 112.10. The area between the levels of 112.04 - 112.17 is a strong supply zone, so it might be hard for bulls to break out above it in a first attempt. Nevertheless, the momentum remains strong and positive, so after a local pull-back (due to overbought market conditions) towards one of the support levels, the bulls should try again to rally higher.

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Bitcoin analysis for 14/09/2018

According to a circular published in the official Mexican daily newspaper all crypto exchanges and banks providing cryptographic services in Mexico will now be required to obtain authorization from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

The letter entitled "General provisions on operations related to electronic payment funds" stated that Banxico is now responsible for issuing licenses related to cryptography. To get them, a company dealing with digital currencies must present a detailed business plan with a description of the operations, commissions that they plan to download, and the mechanism they will use to verify the customer's identity.

In addition, banks can not provide cryptocurrencies to customers if their accounts were created on the same day. Financial entities are also required to identify all customers involved in the trade of cryptocurrencies. In addition, all assets acquired by cryptographic beneficiaries must undergo additional security checks. According to Banxico, these measures will help to prevent money laundering and illegal activities.

According to the information provided by the Criptonoticias, institutions interested in obtaining Banxico permit must file their applications by September 11. They can, however, resubmit their application in March 2019, when the new legal act of Fintech will be incorporated into law.

According to Amir Manzura, founder of the Cubobit crypto market, despite new regulations issued by Banxico, Mexico may face a cryptocurrency boom at the end of 2018. Manzur told Forbes Mexico that the introduction of comprehensive fintech law in March will only strengthen consumer confidence in digital currencies, which will encourage people to continue investing.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken through the black trend line and spiked higher towards the technical resistance at the level of $6,514 that was broken as well. The new local high was made at the level of $6,539, just at the weekly pivot level. If the bulls want to move higher, then the next target for them is seen at the level of $6,752. The immediate support is seen at the level of $6,514 and $6,365.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 14, 2018

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Red wave iv is working its way sideways to slightly down. We still think a dip to 1.7594 is possible, but be aware that all red wave iv needs to do is consolidate in a small sideways pattern before taking off higher again towards 1.8030 as the next sub-target on the way towards 1.8369.

Support is seen at 1.7683 and then again at 1.7594.

R3: 1.7954

R2: 1.7900

R1: 1.7825

Pivot: 1.7791

S1: 1.7755

S2: 1.7700

S3: 1.7683

Trading recommendation:

We continue to look for a possible EUR-buying opportunity near 1.7615.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 14, 2018

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EUR/JPY has rallied nicely and continues to confirm our bullish count and calls. The next upside target is seen near 132.20. This will likely cause some hesitation, but ultimately this sub-target should be broken for upside acceleration towards the next longer-term target at 136.50.

Support is now seen at 130.41. This support will ideally be able to protect the downside for the expected rally higher towards 132.20 and above. At no point should we see EUR/JPY move back below support at 129.77.

R3: 131.99

R2: 131.45

R1: 131.05

Pivot: 130.76

S1: 130.41

S2: 129.99

S3: 129.77

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.11 and we will move our stop higher to 129.40. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 130.41 and use the same stop at 129.40.

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GBP/AUD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

GBPAUD is approaching its resistance at 1.8256 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.8172 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

GBPAUD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.8256. Stop loss 1.8320. Take profit at 1.8172.analytics5b9b23119afe5.png

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NZD/JPY Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

NZDJPY is approaching its resistance at 74.11 (61.8% Fibonacci extensionx2, 61.8%, 38.2% & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 73.19 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 98% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

NZDJPY is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 74.11. Stop loss 74.50. Take profit at 73.19.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, Sept 14, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Trade Balance. The economic calendar is packed with economic data from the US such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, PrelimUoM Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, CapacityUtilization Rate, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core RetailSales m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1749.

Strong Resistance:1.1742.

Original Resistance: 1.1731.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1720.

Target Inner Area: 1.1692.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1664.

Original Support: 1.1653.Strong Support: 1.1642.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1635.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday levels for USD/JPY, Sept 14, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m. The US will present a series of economic reports such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Import Pricesm/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So there is aprobability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 112.59.

Resistance. 2: 112.38.Resistance. 1: 112.19.

Support. 1: 111.95.

Support. 2: 111.75.

Support. 3: 111.55.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 14, 2018

EURUSD has broken above the major short-term resistance at 1.1660 and is now trading a few pips below 1.17. There is a bullish setup in EURUSD that will be valid on a break above 1.1740 and will give us 1.19-1.20 as the target area.

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Green line - support

Red line - resistance (broken)

Blue dots - medium strength support

Dark blue dots - maximum strength support

If the entire corrective pull back in EURUSD completed at 1.1520 we could already have started the next leg up towards 1.19-1.20. The Fibonacci extension gives me 1.1960 as the first target. If price continues to make higher highs and higher lows and holds above 1.16, I expect to see this up trend extend towards the target area. A break below 1.16 will open the way for a deeper pull back towards 1.14.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for September 14, 2018

Gold price broke above the $1,205 resistance today and reached $1,212. Despite Dollar weakness, Gold price pulled back down towards $1,200. It is important to hold above $1,200 in the short-term. Important medium-term support at $1,190 needs also to hold for $1,220 to be achieved.

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Green lines - bearish channel

Dark green line- support

Red line -resistance

Gold price broke above the downward sloping red trend line resistance and is now back testing it at $1,200. Holding above it could lead to another leg higher towards the upper channel boundary near $1,222. Support is at $1,190. If this level is broken we forget any move above $1,210 and we focus on a move lower towards $1,170.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US again "courting" China

The unexpected offer of Americans to resume negotiations with China on trade duties on Wednesday evening led to a surge of optimism in the markets and a local weakening of the US dollar.

It seems that the US will not abandon the desire to "dent" China in the issue of the ratio of trade between countries. So far, they have not been able to do this, because the main problem of "exceptional", in our opinion, is their arrogance towards trading partners and the desire to use any methods to achieve their narrow-minded economic and political goals without taking them into account.

Earlier we have already mentioned that the trade balance not only, according to the latest data, has not shifted in favor of the Americans, but also fell, and the PRC's appeal to the WTO to punish the United States for their illegal actions could force the latter to resort to a new round of negotiations. Also, they may have realized that D. Trump's latest threats to expand the impact of new import tariffs by another 267 billion dollars did not have an effective impact on the leadership of "China", which was the reason for the desire to continue the negotiation process.

On this wave, the US and European stock indexes were supported by the results of trading on Wednesday, but already on Thursday the Chinese did not show such unambiguous optimism, which indicates that local investors are not confident in the success and perceive the proposals of the Americans as another trick and nothing more. We also believe that there will be no success in this process unless the United States engages in constructive and truly equitable negotiations.

Given this state of affairs, we believe that the weakening of the dollar against commodities and commodity currencies will be local, which means that after the weakening of the US currency and another disappointment in the negotiations, we can observe a turn in the interest of market players towards purchases.

On Thursday, from the important events of the day we will highlight the outcome of the ECB meeting on monetary policy. We do not expect any breakthrough statements and changes in the bank's policy. It is likely that it will continue with its plan and then smoothly reduce the program of quantitative easing until the end of this year, which is positive for the euro. But it is unlikely to expect its strong growth when paired with the US dollar, as the process of raising rates in the US will compensate for the pressure of the euro, so we believe that the overall sideways trend of the euro/dollar pair in the short term will continue.

The forecast for today:

The EUR/USD pair is trading in the range of 1.1530-1.1650 in anticipation of the ECB meeting. Probably, the pair will remain in this range, turning down and rushing to its lower border.

The AUD/USD pair is trading above 0.7170. We do not expect a strong growth of the pair, as the RBA is unlikely to decide before the end of this year to raise rates on the wave of instability in the world. A price decrease below 0.7170 may be the reason for the price to fall to 0.7100.

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USD/CAD: rumors about the death of NAFTA are greatly exaggerated

The Canadian dollar paired with the US currency on Wednesday tested the 29th figure, breaking a total of almost 200 points in three days. The downward impulse was triggered by positive rumors around the NAFTA negotiation process. Washington and Ottawa continue to discuss the terms of the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. However, even today the mood of traders is not so optimistic: bears of the USD/CAD ahead of the event, celebrating an unconfirmed deal.

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Let me remind you that at the end of August, the United States concluded a trade deal with Mexico on the basis of the revised NAFTA terms. Canada has been virtually excluded from the negotiation process since mid-summer, so when the parties signed an agreement in a bilateral format, the Canadian dollar significantly slipped, falling in price in a pair with its American namesake almost to the middle of the 32nd figure. Nevertheless, the Canadians left the door open: Mexico advocated trilateral agreements, and the United States did not interfere with this idea. In early September, the parties almost came to a common denominator, but, according to rumors, the deal fell through because of one phrase that Donald Trump dropped in the presence of a journalist. He said that he was able to force Canada to make concessions, and the new agreement will be concluded entirely on his terms.

A loud phrase hit the front pages of newspapers, after which Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was forced to refuse to sign the deal. In the context of Trump's above position, any compromise by Canada would look like an act of betrayal of national interests. In turn, for Trudeau, who is preparing for the parliamentary elections next year, such a step would be too risky. As a result, the issue again hovered in the air: as noted by the negotiators themselves, they have a time frame until the end of the year – so the market did not expect any major breakthroughs before December.

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This background explains the reaction of traders to the recent statement of the minister of economy of Mexico, who unexpectedly reported that the chances of a deal between Washington and Ottawa in the near future has increased significantly. In addition, the press appeared with insider information about the concessions, which are still ready to go to Canada. There is limited access to the domestic dairy market. It should be noted that the influence of Canadian lobby groups in the field of dairy products is very huge. According to Canadian journalists, milk producers have a great influence in the structure of Canadian politics, so the prime minister has long feared to go into a confrontation with them, concluding a disadvantageous (for them) deal with Washington.

But apparently, the possible negative consequences of the absence of NAFTA and the possibility of a new trade war with the United States could convince Ottawa. At least, several sources reported on possible concessions from Canada, both in the Canadian press and in the American press. According to their information, having received the "welcome" in Ottawa, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland yesterday, came back to the United States to conduct final negotiations with the U.S. trade representative. Again, according to sources, the conclusion of the transaction is expected literally from day to day.

Against the background of such prospects, the USD/CAD pair fell to the boundaries of the 30th figure, but the bears could not break through the key level. The fact is that today there were quite discouraging comments from the Mexican economy minister, who just recently inspired the market with his optimistic statements. Now, he has changed the tone of his rhetoric, saying that Washington and Ottawa may not come to an agreement – in this case, the bilateral format of the transaction will work, although Canada's participation is "more preferable". In other words, he sowed a seed of doubt among traders, after which the growth of the Canadian dollar stopped.

The presence of intrigue on the eve of a possible deal will only strengthen the subsequent effect: a positive outcome of the negotiations will help the bears of the pair not only to gain a foothold in the 29th figure, but also to reach its foundation. If the parties take a pause again, the USD/CAD will return to the 31st level. However, in my opinion, the probability of reaching an agreement this time is very high, given the insider signals.

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If we talk about the technical picture, then a downward scenario is clearly looming. On the daily chart, the pair is between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which indicates the priority of the bearish movement. The pair is also under the Kumo cloud, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator has formed a bearish "Parade of lines" signal. In favor of the South also speak and oscillators, which indicate the oversold pair. The main downward target for the pair is 1.2890, the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart. But it is too early to talk about this: first, the bears need to gain a foothold in the 29th figure, before considering further downward prospects. The prospect of NAFTA negotiations in this context plays a key role.

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