Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 22, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish movement is maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Quick bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.1420. To be noted that prominent supply zone as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 enhances further bullish movement towards 1.1520 and probably 1.1600 where the upper limit of the daily channel comes to meet the EUR/USD pair.

Thus, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within a narrow price range (1.1275-1.1400) until breakout occurs in either directions.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 22, 2018

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On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted demand-zone of (1.2850-1.2780) where slight bullish recovery towards 1.2980 (key-level) was overpowered by quick bearish decline towards 1.2720 on November 15.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2980 (key-level for the short-term scenario). Moreover, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price zone around 1.2780.

Early Signs of bullish recovery are manifested on the H4 chart. A double-bottom reversal pattern is about to be confirmed.

Bullish persistence above the price zone of 1.2870 (neckline of the reversal pattern) is needed to allow another bullish movement to occur towards 1.2980 and probably 1.3100 where the depicted daily downtrend comes to meet the pair.

On the other hand, bearish decline below 1.2780 invalidates the bullish scenario allowing further bearish decline towards 1.2700 and 1.2670.

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The dollar is tired to resist the onslaught of falling oil

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The dollar as a whole steadily survived the recent collapse in oil prices. This, in particular, it succeeded, thanks to the return of the dollar carry trade. However, the US currency, apparently, is now at the peak of its value. The US economy can get hit by the sharp drop in black gold to its lowest level since last year.

"For the past few months, the dollar has been gaining from the carry trade in the United States, which relied on low volatility and relatively advanced dynamics. The collapse of oil, in this case, is important, because the United States is now one of the most important marginal oil producers. This is a shock for the growth of one of the key emerging industries in the country," says a recent review of the TD chapter in North America.

Since early October, the WTI brand has lost almost 30% of the cost. Against the background of the collapse of oil, the collapse of stocks and concerns of American monetarists for the US economy, traders have worsened expectations regarding the Fed's rate hike next year.

The rate of imputed inflation on 10-year bonds, which shows the market's opinion on the annual growth rate of prices for 2028, fell below 2% for the first time since January following the drop in oil.

EUR / USD

The euro was optimistic about the readiness of the vice-premier of Italy to revise the fiscal plan for 2019, so the collapse of the single currency did not happen. The bulls on the euro/dollar pair, adopting the expected slowdown in the rate of tightening policy in the United States, again turned to the idea of dollar sales.

The possibility of a pause in the rate increase process was confirmed by Fed officials, as one of the reasons they called the loss of momentum in the American economy. In addition, the OECD forecast convinces that policy tightening in 2019 will be slower than in the current year. World GDP has reached its peak this year and will begin to slow down from 3.7% to 3.5%, representatives of the authoritative department said. Considering trade wars, the situation with oil prices and the outflow of capital from emerging markets, the figure could go a little below 3% by 2020.

Fed meeting in December

The market believes that, before taking a pause, the regulator will still raise the rate at the December meeting. However, judging by the statement of Patrick Harker, the last meeting of this year promises to be hot. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia does not want to vote for a rate increase due to weak inflation forecasts. The dollar will receive another blow if the Committee next month worsens estimates on key macroeconomic indicators.

It is worth noting that now it is too easy for traders to part with dollars. Of course, they have good reasons for selling a greenback, which loses its power before our eyes. Here, the question arises. What currency can you replace the dollar? While we are thinking, the probability of consolidation of the main pair in the range of 1.125-1.155 increases.

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GBP / USD: plan for the US session on November 22. The pound rose against the background of progress on Brexit

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The pound rose sharply and made its way above the resistance of 1.2876 after the news appeared that the negotiators from the UK and from the EU agreed on the text of a declaration on future relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union. However, the specifics were not disclosed, which limits the upward potential. Only fixing above the resistance of 1.2876 will lead to further strengthening of the pound in the maximum area of 1.2962 and 1.3040, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline in GBP / USD in the afternoon, purchases can be returned to the test support of 1.2796 or to rebound from the minimum of the month of 1.2723.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The bears will try to do everything to gain a foothold by the end of the day under the resistance level of 1.2876, which will return to the market large players who are putting on a further decline of the pair. In this scenario, short positions can be opened for the purpose of the test of morning support of 1.2796. In the case of continued growth, which can be supported by new news on Brexit, it is best to consider short positions in GBP / USD from the maximum of 1.2962 and 1.3039.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved above the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the formation of an upward movement in the pound.

Bollinger bands

The Bollinger Bands indicator indicates a decrease in volatility and does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on November 22. Euro in the zone of uncertainty

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The buyers coped with the morning task and managed to keep the support level of 1.1382. However, the main task remains a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1424, which will make it possible to count on a larger uptrend with the update of the maximum of the week around 1.1468, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a decline in the euro under the support level of 1.1382, it is best to return to the rebound from the lows of 1.1339 and 1.1296.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

In the afternoon, traders will closely monitor the European Central Bank's monetary policy report, and any negative changes may lead to a sell-off of the euro with a break of 1.1382 support, which will collapse EUR / USD to 1.1339 and 1.1296 minimum. In the case of growth after the ECB report, short positions can be returned when a false breakdown is formed in the resistance area of 1.1424. In a different scenario, open short positions in EUR / USD is best to rebound from a maximum of 1.1468.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The current situation is unfavorable for risky assets - experts

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According to some analysts, the current situation in the global market is not very suitable for any actions with risky assets. Many experts believe that the US and world economies have reached their peak, and one should not expect high rates from them in the near future.

On Wednesday, November 21, the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) published updated forecasts, according to which in 2019-2020 the growth of the global economy will slow down from the current 3.7% to 3.5%. Among the negative factors of this slowdown, the OECD considers trade contradictions between the United States and China. The OECD believes that the introduction of US duties on all Chinese imports at a rate of 25% and China's adoption of similar measures will cost the global economy 0.5% of GDP. At the same time, the American economy will lose 0.8% of GDP, and the Chinese - 1% of GDP. Experts add that the peak of the American and world economies has already passed, and the global market will face a slowdown in economic activity.

In the past few weeks, analysts have fixed the fall of the US stock market. The October-November 2018 correction helped cool the stock market, which showed signs of overheating. If there are positive drivers, such as the meeting of the leaders of the United States and the People's Republic of China at the G-20 summit and softening of the Fed's rhetoric about the further dynamics of rates, stock indexes can recover, experts are sure.

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The current situation is unfavorable for risky assets - experts

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According to some analysts, the current situation in the global market is not very suitable for any actions with risky assets. Many experts believe that the US and world economies have reached their peak, and one should not expect high rates from them in the near future.

On Wednesday, November 21, the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) published updated forecasts, according to which in 2019-2020 the growth of the global economy will slow down from the current 3.7% to 3.5%. Among the negative factors of this slowdown, the OECD considers trade contradictions between the United States and China. The OECD believes that the introduction of US duties on all Chinese imports at a rate of 25% and China's adoption of similar measures will cost the global economy 0.5% of GDP. At the same time, the American economy will lose 0.8% of GDP, and the Chinese - 1% of GDP. Experts add that the peak of the American and world economies has already passed, and the global market will face a slowdown in economic activity.

In the past few weeks, analysts have fixed the fall of the US stock market. The October-November 2018 correction helped cool the stock market, which showed signs of overheating. If there are positive drivers, such as the meeting of the leaders of the United States and the People's Republic of China at the G-20 summit and softening of the Fed's rhetoric about the further dynamics of rates, stock indexes can recover, experts are sure.

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Fed pause: the tide that can lift off all the ships in emerging markets

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According to a number of experts, the prospects for a slowdown in the global economy, the extinction of the effect of fiscal incentives in the United States and the volatility of financial markets may force the Fed to act more cautiously in terms of raising interest rates.

Despite the fact that the probability of raising the rate is still estimated above 70%, the chances for its increase next year have decreased from 50 to 33%, reports Bloomberg.

"In December, the Fed is unlikely to take a pause in tightening monetary policy. However, it may follow in the first half of next year. I assume that markets will have to adapt to lower levels and slower rates in terms of both economic growth and rising interest rates," says Gene Tannuzzo of Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

"I think that the regulator will raise the rate in December, and then only once in 2019 and in 2020. At the same time, I admit that the Fed will not raise the cost of borrowing at all next year, while the world economy will "digest" the growth in short-term rates that have already taken place," said John Herrmann, a specialist at MUFG Securities Americas Inc.

A similar point of view is shared by Donald Ellenberger, senior portfolio manager, Federated Investors Inc.

"Given the fall in stocks, as well as due to the contraction in the economies of Germany and Japan in the past quarter, one cannot exclude the possibility that the Fed will abandon the three previously announced rate hikes in 2019," he said.

Slowing the rate of increase in rates would probably be great news for the stock market, which is now struggling to find the bottom after falling from record highs. In addition, it would weaken the dollar and support the assets of emerging markets.

"The pause of the Fed is a tide that can lift off all the ships in emerging markets. In this case, as an option, it would be possible to consider increasing positions in such assets as high-yielding bonds, the debt of border markets and EM currencies," said Edwin Gutierrez, an analyst at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

"Given the fact that in the future, the growth of the American economy may slow down, and inflation will be under control, the pause from the Fed seems quite a logical step. It would encourage investors to prefer currencies such as the South African rand, the Brazilian real, and the Turkish lira," said Chris Diaz, spokesman for Janus Capital Management.

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Events that set a course, or three currencies and three predictions

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The dollar is falling for the second day in a row amid a growing risk appetite that drives investors to actively sell the dollar after a recent rally.

Risk indicators in foreign exchange markets, such as the euro against the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar, erupted green, although profits were tiny because US markets were closed on the occasion of Thanksgiving. An optimistic assessment of the short-term outlook contributes to the growth of the euro; tensions on the European bond market have declined slightly. In general, traders "worked off" recent events in the stock markets and turned their attention to the G20 summit next week and to the EU summit over the weekend.

The dollar pulls down doubts about how many times the Fed can raise interest rates in 2019, without risking a slowdown in the US economy. According to the new poll, next year, the rate will rise three times and by the end of 2019, it will reach 3.00-3.25 percent. The survey also showed that the probability of a recession in the United States in the next two years is 35 percent.

As for the British pound, it cost minimal fluctuations in the course. It will be possible to talk about its future fate only after clarity regarding the progress of the Brexit agreement appears. Until this agreement is reached, the pound sterling will remain under pressure, because every day there is a growing risk that the Brexit transaction will not take place.

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Lower oil prices are not positive for the US economy - opinion

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According to the calculations of the British consulting company Pantheon Macroeconomics, the fall in oil prices does not have the former positive impact on the American economy. Experts believe that the reason for this is the growth of shale oil production and the oil and gas industry as a whole.

According to Ian Shepherdson, a leading economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, the collapse of oil prices, recorded recently, does not threaten US economic growth in the near future. "The key to the American economy is the fact that lower oil prices have a slowing effect on the US economy. The reduction in capital expenditures, starting in the shale oil segment, outweighs the potential benefits of rising consumer spending due to cheaper gasoline," the analyst summarizes.

Recall, forecasts from Ian Shepherdson was recognized as the most accurate compared to others. They clearly demonstrate that in the course of the previous collapse of oil prices, when the stock prices of Brent oil in the middle of 2014 fell from $ 107 per barrel to almost $ 26 per barrel, in America there was a sharp slowdown in GDP growth. Industrial activity during this period fell by 60% in the oil and mining sectors due to a reduction in capital expenditures.

According to experts from Pantheon Macroeconomics, capital expenditures that are not related to the oil and mining industries, also dramatically slowed from 2014 to 2016. The reduction in capital expenditures was recorded in transport companies, in residential real estate and the financial sector, as well as in such segments of the American economy as the production of special machinery and industrial equipment.

The tense situation persists today. The cost of oil from leading brands Brent and WTI have fallen by almost 30% since the beginning of October 2018, analysts remind. A similar scenario has arisen due to the threat of US sanctions against all oil exports from Iran. As a result, OPEC + countries increased oil production to compensate for the proposed cessation of Iranian oil exports. This allowed financial market players to place bets on lower oil prices due to oversupply, as well as fears about a fall in demand for black gold amid forecasts of a slowdown in global economic growth.

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Analysis of the oil market. "Black Gold" after yesterday's fall comes to life

January futures for Brent oil added 1.51% and cost 63.48 dollars.

The cost of futures for WTI crude oil in January rose by 2.22%, amounting to 54.62 dollars.

The spread between the current contracts for Brent and WTI oil is about $ 8.2 in favor of the first.

On the eve of the cost of oil rose, driven mostly by purchases in anticipation of a pullback after Tuesday's reduction by 6%. The cost of Brent consolidated around 63-63.5 dollars per barrel after Tuesday's minimum of 61.7 dollars. The current range is limited to the levels of 61.7 and 64.5 dollars. When you exit the range, you should pay attention to the situation. It is likely that this technical signal will provide an opportunity to assume further dynamics.

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Low prices attract speculators who seek to catch the "bottom". However, it's too early to talk about a full reversal, as the news background continues to retain a negative connotation.

Today, the market's attention has attracted Donald Trump's joyful announcement on Twitter. The American president thanked Saudi Arabia for the low cost of oil and called for its even lowering.

"Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big tax cut for America and the World. Enjoy! $ 54, was just $ 82. Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let's go power" - Donald J. Trump.

Earlier, a number of media outlets, citing their sources, said that at the next meeting in Vienna on December 6, OPEC + countries will discuss a decline in production by 1.4-1.5 million barrels per day in order to avoid the threat of surplus and support the cost of oil. At the same time, the market does not yet lay these expectations in the quotes. Also, there were no statements from state representatives, and the current balance of forces makes one doubt that all parties to the transaction can quickly come to an agreement.

Oil futures with delivery in 18 months are again traded in contango to contracts with the nearest delivery. The last time such a situation could be observed briefly last week after a strong decline, and before that, there was a long period of backwardation.

Contango says that the market assesses current price levels as lower than the average value in a year and a half. So far, the excess of long-term contracts is insignificant, but the fact itself can already have an impact on the speculators' view of the market.

Today, the current data on weekly oil reserves in the United States from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) came out. Commercial stocks of crude oil rose again, despite the fact that the data from the API showed a decrease a day earlier. Last week, growth was 4.85 million barrels, which was higher than the expectations of experts, who predicted a growth of 2.94 million barrels. Total reserves in America amounted to 446.91 million barrels.

Exports of crude oil for the week fell by 81 thousand barrels per day, amounting to 1.97 million barrels. The volume of imports rose by 102 thousand barrels per day, to 7.55 million barrels per day.

According to EIA, gasoline inventories sank by 1.3 million barrels, commercial distillate inventories decreased by 0.08 million barrels. Refinery utilization rates rose to 92.7% from 90.1%. Oil production last week remained at the previous level of 11.7 million barrels per day.

The first reaction of the market to the statistics was negative, but the drawdown was quickly bought out. This morning, futures for Brent crude traded below yesterday's close by 0.3%.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 22, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a breakout of the symmetrical triangle to the downside, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a series of the lower highs and lower lows, which indicates the downward trend. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities and follow the trend direction. The downward targets are set at the price of $4.000 and at the price of $3.247.

Support/Resistance

$4.731 – Intraday resistance

$4.300– Intraday support

$4.000 – Objective target 1

$3.247 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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AUD/USD analysis for November 22, 2018

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Recently, the AUD/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 0.7234. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found breakout of the supply trendline in the background and potential bullish flag in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities if you see a breakout of the bullish flag. The upward target is set at the price of 0.7336.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 22, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 0.6791 today. So, the support is found at the level of 0.6791, which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. Since the trend is above the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. Therefore, the NZD/USD pair is continuing with a bullish trend from the new support of 0.6791. The current price is set at the level of 0.6791 that acts as a daily pivot point seen at 0.6791 also. Equally important, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to move between 0.6791 and 0.6840. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 0.6791 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.6840. If the trend breaks the support at 0.6730 (first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.6881 in order to test the double top. In the same time frame, support is seen at the levels of 0.6791 and 0.6744. The stop loss should always be taken into account for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.6744.

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USD/JPY analysis for November 22, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 112.91. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I have found rejection of the key resistance (confluence level) at the price of 113.17 (Multi Fibonacci level), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I have also found that price went below the 3 DMA, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 112.30 and at the price of 112.05.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on November 22. No news on Brexit puts pressure on the pound

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

From the new wave of falling GBP / USD only the area of 1.2770 holds back. The formation at this level of a false breakdown in the first half of the day will be a signal to open long positions with the main purpose of returning and fixing above 1.2816, which will keep hope for the pound to grow in the short term. In the event of a decline in GBP / USD under the support level of 1.2770, it is best to consider new long positions at the new monthly lows in the area of 1.2694 and 1.2660.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Failing to fix above resistance at 1.2816 will be a signal to open short positions with the aim of reducing first support at 1.2770 to the region, breaking through which will lead to a larger GBP / USD sale with a test of monthly lows around 1.2694 and 1.2660, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a return to the resistance level of 1.2816, it is best to return to short positions in GBP / USD again to rebound from a weekly high of 1.2875.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading has moved below the 30 and 50-day moving average, which is a bad signal for buyers of the pound.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator decreases, which does not give clear signals on market entry. A break of the lower border around 1.2762, together with the support level of 1.2270, may lead to a larger sale of the pound.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the European session on November 22. The pressure on the euro may remain

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Yesterday, a decision was made in Italy, and the measures to be applied will be known only in two weeks. Today, the growth of the euro will depend on whether buyers will be able to keep the support level of 1.1382. The formation of a false breakout on it will lead to an increase in EUR / USD, and the main task will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1424, which will make it possible to count on a larger upward trend with the update of the week maximum around 1.1468, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a decline in the euro under the support level of 1.1382, it is best to return to the rebound from the lows of 1.1339 and 1.1296.

To open short positions on EUR / USD you need:

A break of support at 1.1382 could lead to the formation of a larger downward wave in European currency with a rise to the lows of 1.1339 and 1.1296. It is likely that the bears will closely monitor the monetary policy report of the European Central Bank, and any negative changes could lead to an even bigger euro sale. In the case of growth in the first half of the day, short positions can be returned when a false breakdown is formed in the resistance area of 1.1424. In a different scenario, open short positions in EUR / USD is best for a rebound from a maximum of 1.1468.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator decreases, which does not give clear signals on market entry. A break of the lower border around 1.1375, together with the support level of 1.1380, could lead to a larger euro sale.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro and pound in no hurry to go out of range

On Wednesday, US stock markets were weakly corrected after two days of a protracted fall, and there is no doubt that the annual S & P500, set in February at 2530 n, will be tested for strength in the near future.

Tramponomy does not give a noticeable result yet. Published on Wednesday, the report U.S. Census Bureau showed that in October, the volume of orders for durable goods decreased by 11.5 billion dollars, or 4.4%, the maximum rates since August 2017.

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The bureau also reported that the supply of goods decreased by 0.6%, the number of unpaid orders decreased, the data for September were slightly revised downwards. The effect that the US economy has received from tax cuts has been short-lived, and the signs of an impending recession are becoming increasingly threatening.

The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 97.5 n against 98.6 n a month earlier, it still remains at high levels, but a tendency to slow growth has been observed for several months. The leading indicator of the US real estate market, published by the MBA, is below zero for the fourth month in a row, which indicates that cooling is approaching in the housing market and hence in the construction sector.

The dollar looks neutral on Thursday, volatility will be low, as banks in the United States are closed on the occasion of Thanksgiving.

Eurozone

The European Commission, as expected, expressed serious concern about the draft budget of Italy, according to which the budget deficit should increase to 2.4%. The Commission considers that the budget deficit will not lead to economic growth, the project contains a particularly serious non-compliance with the recommendations of the EC.

The position of the European Commission is similar to the last warning if the Italian government does not take into account the recommendations of Brussels, the latter will have to start the procedure for calculating the fine.

The absence of important macroeconomic data this week contributes to the temporary stabilization of the euro. The publication of the minutes of the ECB meeting of October 25, which is expected today, is unlikely to lead to movement in the markets.

The currency pair EUR / USD is still trading in a range whose boundaries are 1.1355 / 1445, there are no serious reasons for leaving the range yet.

Great Britain

The pound is waiting for the EU Sunday summit, which will decide the fate of Brexit. After Theresa May managed to persuade the government to adopt a plan, the chances of a positive decision on Sunday increased significantly, but the pound is in no hurry to regain positive expectations.

The country's economy is confidently heading towards a recession, although signs of its approach are barely visible. The UK budget deficit has updated a three-year high, with public spending growing by 7.7%, and this is the fastest pace in 11 years. In other words, the government is now taking more and faster than at the peak of the 2008 crisis.

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For 7 months of the current fiscal year, the government managed to reduce the budget deficit by almost 30%, but the outpacing growth in spending has every chance to cover the forecasts of the Office of Budget Responsibility.

The mild version of Brexit is extremely important for Britain since it will allow it to preserve both the inflow of investments and trade with the EU countries. However, if the Brexit project is blocked by parliament, for which there are good reasons, the budget deficit will sharply accelerate its growth, and the real income of the population will decrease, which will cast doubt on the plans of the Bank of England to continue the normalization policy and put a strong pressure on the pound.

Waiting for the summit is the only serious driver for the pound before the end of the week, so the most likely scenario for GBP / USD is trading in a narrow range, which can be exceeded in case of an unexpected insider. Supports 1.2695 and 1.2721, resistance 1.2883, slightly more likely to move to the upper boundary of the channel as the EU summit approaches.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 22. The situation with Brexit does not allow the pound to build a wave C

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Wave counting analysis:

During the November 21 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair lost just a few points, so the current wave counting did not suffer any changes. I still await the completion of the construction of the correctional wave 2, C. If this assumption is true, then the increase in quotations will resume with targets located around 30 figures. The situation with Brexit has not changed or cleared up in recent days, and can still greatly affect the wave picture if negotiations fail or the British Parliament blocks Theresa May's proposals.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2991 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD remains in the process of building an upward set of waves, but is growing very reluctantly. Wave counting, with a successful attempt to break through the level of 100.0% Fibonacci, will require changes. If the news background contributes to the pound sterling, then the pair will continue to rise from current positions with targets at around 1.2991. So now I still recommend small pair purchases.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 22. Euro currency ready to resume growth

analytics5bf65bdac5737.png

Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Wednesday, the EUR / USD currency pair gained only about 15 basis points, so the current wave pattern did not change. It is still assumed that the second wave in the future first new upward trend section is completed. If this is true, then from the current position, the pair will continue to rise with targets located near the 100.0% level on the small Fibonacci grid. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% level is in favor of this. As before, the news background can destroy the current wave marking, but there are no prerequisites for this yet.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1500 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1577 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to build wave 1 as part of a new uptrend trend. If the estimated wave 2, 1, then the pair will resume growth in quotes with targets near the estimated levels of 1.1500 and 1.1577, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of the Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the level of 50.0% will complicate the current wave structure and may require appropriate adjustments.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental statistics on the United States hurt the US dollar, but demand may return

The weak fundamental data, which came out yesterday in the US economy in the second half of the day, did not allow the US dollar to continue to strengthen against the euro and other world currencies, despite the fact that the European Commission approved an excessive budget deficit procedure for Italy.

Fundamental Statistics

According to the report, the number of Americans who re-applied for unemployment benefits last week increased, but the weekly data did not affect the market at all.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 3,000 in the week from 11 to 17 November, reaching 224,000. Economists had expected the number of new applications to last week to be 214,000.

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Strong pressure on the US dollar had a report on orders for durable goods in the United States, which in October of this year decreased. The decline was due to a drop in orders for civil aircraft.

According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for American durable goods in October fell by 4.4% compared with the previous month and amounted to 248.52 billion US dollars. Economists had expected orders to decline by 2.6%. The data for September were revised down to -0.1% from the previous value of + 0.7%.

American consumers worsened their assessment of the American economy. According to the University of Michigan report, the consumer sentiment index in November of this year fell to 97.5 points against a preliminary value of 98.3 points and a final October estimate of 98.6 points. Economists had expected the index to be 98.2 at the end of November. Reduced consumer expectations may have a negative impact on sales, which will be held at the end of this week in connection with "Black Friday", where, as a rule, there is a huge amount of discounts for various groups of goods.

There are a number of positive data, for example, the index measuring the state of the US economy in October of this year has grown. According to the Conference Board, the leading indicators index in October 2018 increased by 0.1% and amounted to 112.1 points. Economists had expected the index in October to be 111.8 points.

The US real estate market is stabilizing a bit. As indicated in the report of the National Association of Realtors, sales in the secondary housing market in October this year increased by 1.4% and amounted to 5.22 million homes per year. Economists had expected sales of 5.19 million. Compared to the same period of the previous year, sales in October fell by 5.1%.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the upward potential today will be limited by intermediate resistance around 1.1425, a breakthrough of which will lead to the return of the trading instrument to the maximum of this week in the area of 1.1470. In the case of a breakthrough of support at 1.1380, the pressure on risky assets will increase, which will lead EUR/ USD to the minimum of the week and update them in the areas of 1.1340 and 1.1300.

Oil quotes fell slightly yesterday after an upward correction, which was observed amid a collapse in prices at the beginning of this week. Pressure on oil came from a report from the US Department of Energy, according to which growth of commercial oil reserves continued for the ninth week in a row.

According to the data, in the week from November 10 to 16, oil reserves in the United States increased by 4.9 million barrels, while economists had forecast growth of 1.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined by 100,000 barrels, which partially offset the fall in oil prices. Analysts had expected a decrease in gasoline inventories by 400,000 barrels and a decrease in distillate stocks by 2.3 million barrels.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 22, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair keeps going to move upwards from the level of 0.7185. This week, the pair rose from the level of 0.7185 to a top around 0.7299 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 0.7242. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7299 followed by 0.7352, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7185 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7250 and 0.7352; so we expect a range of 102 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7299, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7299) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7299 with the first target at 0.7352 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7394. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7394 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7185, a further decline to 0.7069 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Asian dollar decline will last all day

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Today, the dollar is falling as part of the Asian trading session, as the demand for safe currencies turned out to be lower than the recovery in the global stock market, while the euro rose in the hope of resolving the budget crisis in Italy.

Recall that the dollar has been actively growing in the last two trading sessions, as the appetite for risk has declined amid fears of a slowdown in global growth and fueling the trade conflict between the United States and China.

The dollar index fell today by 0.1%, to 96.62. Thus, the indicator lost 0.13 percent compared to the previous trading session.

Analysts believe that the medium-term direction of the dollar will be determined by estimates of the tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

The Fed is expected to announce its fourth rate hike in 2018 in December, but investors are beginning to doubt how many times the Fed can raise the rate next year without risking to slow the growth rate of the US economy, which still persists.

According to a Reuters poll published this week, the median of analysts' forecasts shows three more increases in the Fed's rate next year, to 3.00-3.25% by the end of 2019.

The survey also showed that economists have increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States in the next two years to 35%.

"It is expected that the Fed will go for the next rate increase in December but this meeting is becoming much more focused, as the market is looking for any signals from the regulator," said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore.

The expert also added that while the Bank of Singapore still expects the Fed to raise rates four times in 2019, any changes in the point-to-point policy forecasts could trigger a significant re-evaluation of this forecast.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for November 22. Euro still tends to fall

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair made a return to the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423 and rebound from it. As a result, the process of falling quotations can be resumed on November 22 in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.1303. There is no observable divergence today in any indicator. Fixing the course of the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will make it possible to expect continued growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD pair reversed in favor of the American dollar after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator. Thus, on this graph, it is also expected to continue falling in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Fixing quotes under this Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1497 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair closes above the level of 1.1423.

You can sell the EUR / USD currency pair now with a target of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% since the pair completed the close and rebound from the correction level of 1.1423 with the preliminary formation of a bearish divergence.

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Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for November 22. Bullish divergence did not help the pound sterling

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair did not close above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812, after the formation of a bullish divergence, and performed a rebound from it and the passage of the last divergence low. Thus, the fall in quotations can be continued on November 22 in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662. Fixing the rate of the pair from the second attempt above the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect some growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2904.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair rebounded from the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2809 with a reversal in favor of the American currency. As a result, the fall in the pair resumed in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Fixing quotations above the Fibo level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the British currency and we can expect some growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2878.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with a target of 1.2878 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 76.4% if the pair closes above 1.2809 (hourly chart).

The currency pair GBP / USD can be sold now with a target of 1.2696 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% since the pair completed the rebound from the level of 1.2809 (hourly chart).

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 22

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the price is in deep correction from the rising structure and the level of 1.1352 is the key support. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, there is a high probability that the downward trend will continue to develop, which should occur after the breakdown of 1.2690. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price forms the potential for the top of November 20. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we follow the formation of the potential for the upward movement of November 20 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 129.17. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, we expect the downward movement after the breakdown of 143.40, and we consider the upward movement as a correction.

Forecast for November 22:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1469, 1.1430, 1.1403, 1.1382, 1.1352, 1.1315, 1.1289 and 1.1271. Here, the price is in deep correction from the upward structure on November 12 and forms the potential for the bottom of November 20. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1352. In this case, the goal is 1.1352. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1271, after reaching which we expect consolidation in the range of 1.1271 - 1.1289.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1382 - 1.1403 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1430 and this level is the key resistance to continue the upward movement. The breakdown will have to move to the potential target of 1.1469.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 12, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1382 Take profit: 1.1402

Buy 1.1405 Take profit: 1.1430

Sell: 1.1350 Take profit: 1.1315

Sell: 1.1312 Take profit: 1.1290

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2966, 1.2928, 1.2878, 1.2843, 1.2729, 1.2691 and 1.2603. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure on November 7. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.2729 - 1.2691. In this case, the potential target is 1.2603, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2843 - 1.2878 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2928. The range of 1.2928 - 1.2966 is the key support for the downward movement. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 7, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2845 Take profit: 1.2876

Buy: 1.2880 Take profit: 1.2926

Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2610

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0013, 0.9985, 0.9959, 0.9943, 0.9923, 0.9909 and 0.9885. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward structure from November 13. At the moment, the price is in the correction. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9923 - 0.9909 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 0.9885, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9943 - 0.9959 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9985 and the breakdown of which, in turn, will begin to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 13, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9944 Take profit: 0.9957

Buy: 0.9962 Take profit: 0.9982

Sell: 0.9923 Take profit: 0.9910

Sell: 0.9907 Take profit: 0.9887

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are: 114.02, 113.82, 113.48, 113.19, 112.82, 112.61, 112.37, 112.10, 111.91 and 111.50. Here, the price forms the potential target from November 20th. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 113.19 - 113.48 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 113.82. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 114.02, after reaching which we expect consolidation in the range of 113.82 - 114.02.

The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 112.35. In this case, the goal is 112.10 and in the range of 112.10 - 111.91 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 111.50, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.20 Take profit: 113.45

Buy: 113.52 Take profit: 113.80

Sell: 112.80 Take profit: 112.64

Sell: 112.58 Take profit: 112.40

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3412, 1.3366, 1.3341, 1.3297, 1.3232, 1.3205 and 1.3170. Here, the price is in deep correction from the local ascending structure on November 16. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3297. In this case, the first target is 1.3341. The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.3341 - 1.3366 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the potential target of 1.3412, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3232 - 1.3205 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3170 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local cycle of November 16, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3300 Take profit: 1.3340

Buy: 1.3341 Take profit: 1.3364

Sell: 1.3230 Take profit: 1.3207

Sell: 1.3203 Take profit: 1.3180

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7287, 0.7254, 0.7194, 0.7169, 0.7148 and 0.7095. Here, we are following the formation of the potential for the downward cycle of November 16. At the moment, the price is close to the key support of 0.7287. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7194. In this case, the target is 0.7169 and in the range of 0.7169 - 0.7148 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7148 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.7095, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The breakdown of the level of 0.7290 will lead to the formation of an ascending structure. In this case, the first potential target is 0.7337.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of November 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7295 Take profit: 0.7330

Buy: 0.7256 Take profit: 0.7285

Sell: 0.7192 Take profit: 0.7170

Sell: 0.7144 Take profit: 0.7100

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.23, 127.98, 127.22, 126.95 and 126.41. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of November 20. The passage of the range of 129.00 - 129.17 will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 129.63.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.23 - 127.98. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 127.22 and in the range of 127.22 - 126.95 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.41.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the upward movement of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 128.23 Take profit: 128.00

Sell: 127.93 Take profit: 127.30

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 146.65, 145.71, 145.00, 143.41, 142.51 and 141.28. Here, we are following the November 8 downward cycle. In the range of 143.41 - 142.51, we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 141.28, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 145.00 - 145.71 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 146.65 and this level is the key support for the downward movement.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.00 Take profit: 145.66

Buy: 145.74 Take profit: 145.65

Sell: 143.40 Take profit: 142.60

Sell: 142.45 Take profit: 141.35

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The uncertainty factor manifested itself with a new force

The slowdown of the US economy in the third quarter, as well as the expectation of negative dynamics in the stock market, and possibly, the slowdown in global economic growth have returned to the market. The Fed might raise interest rates in December by 0.25%. It will be decided if at the beginning of 2019, there might be a pause in the process of following the course of normalization of monetary policy.

As previously mentioned, the impetus for this was an interview with P. Harker, the President of Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on WSJ on Friday. He said that he doubted the need to continue actively raising interest rates. Market responded with increased optimism following the beginning of decline in US dollar. And the yield of government bonds of US Treasury began to decline sharply.

However, it seems to us that the weakening of the dollar and its rise by the middle of this week occurred not only against the background of Harker's comment, but also the resumption of the fall of the American stock market. First in all its technology sector, it remains under pressure from fears that the lack of agreement between the US and China on trade duties will cause serious damage to companies placing orders and having their production in the so-called "heaven".

The course of American currency is currently influenced by two forces. On one hand, this is a downward pressure due to the rising expectations that the Fed will decide not to understand interest rates early next year. And on the other hand, it is supported by the demand for a dollar if the investors sell their share in companies and cash out. Even so, the markets are still confident that the Fed's action to raise rates will be discussed at the December meeting. According to the dynamics of futures on federal fund rates, this probability is estimated at 75.8%.

Evaluating the emerging picture in the market, we believe that since the likelihood of absence of agreement between Washington and Beijing on trade duties will play a huge role, the dollar will consolidate against major currencies. This will likely to happen before the G20 summit which will be held in Brazil the other day. This will also have an undoubtedly noticeable impact on financial markets.

Today is Thanksgiving day in the States. The local market will be closed; therefore, the activity of the investors will be low.

Forecast of the day:

EURUSD pair is consolidating in a narrow range with the budget of Italy for next year, which does not suit the European Commission. Probably, the pair will remain within the range of 1.1300-1.1480 until the G20 summit and the posting of news regarding the Italian budget. It is therefore believed that there will be a local price reduction to the lower limit of the range.

The pair USDCAD is trading above 1.3215. It can resume growth against the backdrop of continued decline in crude oil prices. If the price crosses the 1.3240 mark, a probability of its growth will be at 1.3300.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. November 21. Results of the day. Merkel hopes that the issue with the UK on Gibraltar will be resolved on Sunday

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 191p - 307p - 118p - 90p - 106p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 162p (184p).

On Wednesday, November 21, the British pound sterling stood in one place all day, not knowing where to go. It is rather strange that traders did not even react to the report on durable goods orders in the USA, which frankly failed. All this resembles a lull before the storm, and the fact that the pound did not go up, although the chance was excellent could mean that traders are preparing for massive sales of the pair. Meanwhile, Angela Merkel expressed the hope that the issue of Gibraltar will be resolved on Sunday. Recall that Spain wants to separate negotiations on Gibraltar since the current version of Brexit does not contain any conditions for the legal settlement of possible controversial issues. Also, Spain had previously stated that it could block Brexit if the corresponding changes were not made in the final version of the Brexit document. German Chancellor Angela Merkel fully supports the UK's desire to leave the EU and believes that it will be possible to agree on Gibraltar. Also today, negotiations are scheduled between Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May. It is not yet known how they will end, but perhaps it is on the threshold of these negotiations that traders do not want to open new positions for the pair. We remind that voting in the parliament of Great Britain will be of key importance. Since it is the parliament with a high probability that can block Theresa May's plan. In this case, the prime minister of Great Britain will have nothing to do but resign.

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD does not move. Thus, if the MACD indicator turns up, it will mark the beginning of an upward correction. Otherwise, short positions will remain relevant for the purpose of the support level of 1.2672.

Buy orders can be formally considered if the pair overcomes the critical line. However, we draw attention to the fact that at the moment the line Kijun-sen has declined towards the price and not vice versa. Therefore, long positions are possible only in small lots for the purpose of the line Senkou Span B.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

The red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. November 21. Results of the day. US durable goods order report disappointed

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 85p - 91p - 98p - 71p - 113p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 92p (85p).

The currency pair EUR / USD on Wednesday, November 21, failed to overcome the critical line Kijun-sen from the first attempt. However, most likely, will overcome with the second. From our point of view, the Euro currency has already corrected strongly enough against the US dollar, and the previous local maximum has not been updated. Thus, the technique is completely on the side of the American currency. As for the foundation, there were no important macroeconomic publications in the eurozone today. Orders for durable goods in October in the States showed a serious reduction, much more than the predicted -2.5%. Thus, it was this disappointing report that provoked a slight decrease in the US currency. It is based on this that we believe that tomorrow, there will be a new attempt to overcome the Kijun-Sen line. The European Commission, meanwhile, decided to take action against Italy. What specific measures, while not reported, it will be decided in the coming weeks. As we see, this procedure is not fast and in any case, Italy does not promise anything positive, as well as the European currency. At best, traders will not respond to "punishment" by focusing on US data and the Brexit theme. At worst, this will be the third fundamental factor that will put pressure on the euro. In general, we still do not see, due to which the euro can continue to rise in the medium term.

Trading recommendations:

For the currency pair EUR / USD, at the moment, the correction is completed. Formally, long positions with a view to 1.1486 are again relevant. However, we expect at least one more round of corrective movement, so we recommend opening long positions in small lots.

Orders for sale can also be considered in small lots with the goal of 1.1281 if the pair manages to overcome the critical line Kijun-Sen. In this case, the initiative will go into the hands of bears.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

The red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold storming the fortress

Gold took advantage of the weakness of the US dollar and is trying to storm the important resistance level of $ 1,225 per ounce. A portion of disappointing statistics on industrial production and the real estate market, moderate pigeon comments by Fed representatives and a fall in the likelihood of an increase in the federal funds rate in December and March played a bad joke with the USD index. The precious metal is traditionally regarded as an anti-dollar, so the weakening of the main competitor plays into the hands of the bulls at XAU / USD.

Dynamics of the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December

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The acceleration of the US economy under the influence of the fiscal stimulus, the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed and the high attractiveness of securities issued in the United States are old drivers who are far from USD index. First, the effect of tax reform is gradually melting, and Reuters experts predict a decline in GDP growth to 1.8% in 2020, and also raise the chances of a recession over the next 24 months to 35%. Secondly, at the final stage of the business cycle, raising the rate does not lead to an increase in the yield of treasury bonds, which makes it doubtful of Washington's ability to finance rapidly growing debt. Third, by the end of autumn, US stock indices had lost all the achievements gained since the beginning of the year. These factors make it possible to call the medium and long-term outlook for the dollar "bearish."

Gold receives support from the physical asset market. Let Swiss exports to India slow down to 11.3 tons in October, which is the worst figure in the last five years, and deliveries from a European country to China amounted to a modest 34.3 tons, central banks continue to buy precious metals, and capital outflows from ETFs in October November were replaced by tributaries in the amount of 23 tons and 13 tons. Regulators from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey showed increased activity. Reserves of the first rose to 66.43 million ounces. For comparison, the People's Bank of China, 59.24 million ounces. When gold flows from the West to the East, as it was in 2013, we can talk about the "bearish" trend in XAU / USD and vice versa. The physical market is the precious metal peculiar airbag. On the derivatives market, it is expressed in support within the trading range of $ 1,185-1215 per ounce. While the quotes are holding higher, the bulls have good chances to continue the rally.

If we talk about the medium and long-term investment horizon, the optimistic outlook for gold is confirmed not only by the potential weakness of the US dollar, but also by the growing risks of a slowdown in the global economy. When stocks, oil, and US Treasury yields fall, it's time to talk about global GDP reaching a ceiling. According to the IMF, in 2019-2020, the indicator will slow down, which traditionally increases investor demand for safe-haven assets.

Technically, the inability of the bears on gold to keep quotes within the range of $ 1,185-1215 per ounce indicates their weakness. A confident assault on resistance at $ 1225 and $ 1240 will open to the bulls the road to the north in the direction of target by 200% using the AB = CD pattern.

Gold, the daily chart

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD / CAD. Canadian drops after oil market

The oil market continued its southern rally yesterday. The cost of a barrel of Brent crude fell yesterday to the base of the 62nd figure, updating its multi-month highs (the last time the price was at this level in February of this year). In turn, WTI oil has updated at least more than 13 months.Such dynamics weakened commodity currencies. In particular, the ruble paired with the dollar fell to 65.96, and the Norwegian krone, to 8.58 (having lost about a hundred points). However, the Canadian dollar suffered the most from a drop in the oil market. The currency pair USD / CAD jumped to 1.3317 yesterday, increasing more than 200 points in one trading day.Today, the loonies are being corrected, as is the market for black gold, thereby demonstrating a fairly clear correlation. Therefore, assessing the prospects for the Canadian dollar, we must first find out the reasons for the continuing volatility in the oil market. It is also worth noting that yesterday's fall on Wall Street also contributed to the decline in the Canadian, but this factor plays a secondary role. However, first things first.

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If we describe the situation in the oil market in one word, then this word will be "uncertainty". According to updated expert estimates, the market is experiencing an imbalance period, supply significantly exceeds demand (by almost two million barrels per day). Even four years ago, when the cost of a barrel fell to $ 30, this figure was almost two times less. This imbalance was formed for several reasons.Firstly, the parties to the agreement on limiting oil production in the second half of the year began gradually, but confidently increasing production, going beyond the boundaries of the agreements. Secondly, Iran has actually maintained the level of its production, despite the sanctions imposed by the United States. In fact, they turned out to be much softer than in the words of American politicians. In particular, the eight largest countries in the world can easily acquire "black gold" from Tehran. As a result, Iran retained the level of its production, and OPEC + increased its volume. As a result, the overall level of production in the world increased.In addition, we should not forget about Trump's long-standing intention to reduce the cost of oil. For a long time, he failed to convince Saudi Arabia to influence the oil market accordingly, but after the tragic incident in Istanbul, the Saudis increased production by 0.14 million barrels per day. Whether it is a coincidence or not is an open question, but the fact remains. Riyadh boosted oil production, as the American president demanded. Actually, in the United States, the level of production is breaking all records. For example, last week, this figure increased again and reached a record 11.7 million barrels per day. Stocks of "black gold" are also growing since mid-September, only this week, there was a decline in this indicator, according to data from the API. Official figures will be published today during the American session.

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Thus, if the current dynamics will continue, the situation will worsen even more. Experts predict a decline in Brent not only to $ 60 but lower to $ 55. Therefore, oil traders have high hopes for the OPEC + summit, which will be held in December in Vienna. If the meeting participants agree to limit oil production next year, the southern trend will change to the north, and the price of a barrel can quickly recover to at least 70 dollars. But the problem is that the participants of the future meeting demonstrate uncertainty in this matter. In particular, Russia is silent, just like Saudi Arabia. Other large players admit the option of limiting production but in a rather hypothetical way.According to analysts, the variant of the implementation of last year's scenario is rather small. Given the relationship between Washington and Riyadh, the Saudis are unlikely to take the initiative in this matter, while Saudi Arabia is called the informal leader of the Cartel. Moreover, according to experts, to stop the devaluation of "black gold", it is necessary to significantly limit production by 1.2 million b / s, and to turn the price up, more decisive actions are needed. The cartel needs to limit production to 2 million b / s. Half measures will not give any effect. Almost all experts agree on this opinion. Therefore, the uncertain position of key players in the run-up to the December summit of OPEC is putting pressure on oil quotes and, accordingly, on commodity currencies.The Canadian dollar will continue to follow the oil market. The situation in the US stock market is more likely to influence the position of the US dollar and in the context of USD / CAD only strengthens the northern dynamics of the pair.

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From a technical point of view, further price increases are expected. And on all the "older" timeframes, D1, W1, and MN. Thus, on the daily chart, the pair exceeded the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator formed a bullish signal "Parade of lines". On the weekly chart, the priority of the northern scenario is also visible. The pair also broke through the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and the Kumo cloud. The monthly chart shows that the pair has impressive growth potential, up to the level of 1.3590 (the top line of the Bollinger Bands). If Brent and WTI continue to lose their positions, the Canadian can reach this target in the medium term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. November 22. Trading system "Regression Channels". Philip Hammond fears Brexit breakdown

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -51.2774

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday , November 22, resumed the downward movement, having failed to overcome the moving average line. Thus, the upward correction It is completed and there are practically no obstacles for the new fall of the pound sterling.

The markets are disappointed and also fearful of the UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond. He believes that the likelihood that Parliament will not approve since Theresa May's Brexit plan is quite high. He also said that the lack of consensus on a number of key issues could bring the political situation in the country into chaos. n principle, this is what we have repeatedly written about. Theresa May can verbally reach any agreement with the European Commission, however, if Parliament doesn't approve her proposals, it will mean the failure of the entire Brexit procedure. As we see, 5 ministers have already left their posts in protest against Theresa May, 5 out of 25. This is a lot. Voting in parliament will take place in December which means that the entire procedure and the uncertainty associated with this is delayed by about another month. All this still will not work in favor of the British pound. Especially considering the possible blocking of Brexit by Spain, which expresses its dissatisfaction with the lack of specific conditions for Gibraltar in the Brexit document.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,2756

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2817

R2 - 1.2878

R3 - 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD resumed its downward movement. Thus, now the pair is again recommended to trade for a fall with the first goal of 1.2756 and the second - 1.2695. Heiken Ashi's upward will indicate a turn of corrected movement.

Long positions are still not relevant either from a fundamental or from a technical point of view. Overcoming the MA will allow the bulls to count on strengthening the pound sterling. But so far, there is no reason for this option.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for November 21, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive amid the bearish pressure recently that pushed the price below $5,000 area with a daily close. Today the price managed to bounce back above $4,500 area which indicates a retracement towards $5,000-5,500 area before moving much lower in the coming days. The impulsive bearish pressure is expected to continue, pushing the price much lower with certain volatility, whereas the price may reject off the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line as well. As the price remains below $6,000 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 4,000, 4,500

RESISTANCE: 5,000, 5,500, 6,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD for November 22, 2018

EUR / USD

On Wednesday, the euro showed persistence in its reluctance to take on the attack of the last obstacle before the medium-term movement supporting the Krusenstern line on the four-hour chart. Part of the mood was spoiled by US data on October orders for durable goods. The data showed a decrease of 4.4% against a forecast of -2.2%. The final consumer confidence rating conducted by the University of Michigan in November was lowered from 98.3 to 97.5. Meanwhile, home sales in the secondary real estate market in October amounted to 5.22 million against expectations of 5.20 million and 5.15 million in September. The US stock market grew by 0.30%, but the dollar lost ground.

Today is a US holiday. There are no reasons for the growth of the euro (the minutes from the last meeting of the ECB is unlikely to show something new). And there is also no reason for the euro to decline. However, investors may already be preparing for Friday because according to the forecasts, indices of business activity in the euro zone are expected to decrease. Also, there will be an expected increase in the USA.

We are waiting for the price to overcome the Krusenstern trend line on H4 in the area of 1.1359 (coincides with the Tuesday minimum) and a further decline to 1.1190.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com