Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 12/9/2019 and trading recommendation

Today is just a great opportunity to think about things carefully over and comprehend the contents of the report of the United States Department of Labor published on Friday. Indeed, nothing is published at all today and the data on the labor market came out completely different from what was expected.

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So, the first thing that catches the eye is a decline in the unemployment rate, which is from 3.6% to 3.5%, although it was expected to increase to 3.7%. This happened largely due to the fact that 266 thousand new jobs were created outside agriculture, instead of the predicted 180 thousand. At the same time, the previous results were reviewed for the better from 128 thousand to 156 thousand. Therefore, we can admit that the worst fears that arose after the publication of ADP employment data clearly did not come true. But naturally, this could not be without negativity, since the share of the labor force in the total population decreased from 63.3% to 63.2%, while many predicted its increase to 63.4%. In addition, the growth rate of average hourly wages slowed down from 3.2% to 3.1%. However, this happened only due to the revision of the previous value, which was originally 3.0%. So to some extent, salary data can be considered as an increase in their growth rates. But in any case, it is the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs that have the greatest impact. Due to this, the optimism that swept the market participants on Friday, and led to the weakening of the single European currency, is quite understandable.

The number of new jobs created outside agriculture (United States):

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Today, no data is published, and investors will clearly analyze the information received on Friday as well as also prepare for what will happen in the middle of the week. Thus, the single European currency clearly remains in the region of current values.

From a technical point of view, consolidation is clearly visible for the euro/dollar pair, with possible fluctuations in the range of 1.1040 - 1.1070.

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on December 9, 2019, for GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, it can continue to move up with the first target 1.3166 which is a pullback level of 50.0% presented in a yellow dashed line. The next upper target is 1.3300 which is the resistance line presented in a black bold line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion: upward movement.

On Monday, it can continue to move up with the first target of 1.3166 which is a pullback level of 50.0% presented in a yellow dashed line. The next upper target is 1.3300 which is the resistance line presented in a black bold line.

An unlikely lower scenario is to take place, that is, from the level of 1.3166, work down with the target of 1.3114 which is the rollback level of 14.6% presented in a blue dotted line.

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on December 9, 2019, for EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price may move down with the first target of the support line which is at 1.1041 presented in a red bold line. Upon reaching this line, work up with the target 1.1070 with a pullback level of 38.2% presented in a red dashed line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, after lunch, an upward movement with the first target of 1.1079 is possible this is a pullback level of 50.0% presented in a red dashed line. The next target which is at 1.1088 is a retracement level of 61.8% presented in a red dashed line.

An unlikely scenario is to take place, that is, from the level of 1.1062 there is a moving up with the target of 1.1079 which is a pullback level of 50% presented in a red dashed line.

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Trading plan for 09.12.2019. Main week of December.

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At the end of last week, the EUR/USD rate fell significantly, after an unexpectedly very strong US employment report for November: +266 K - this is almost 100 K above forecasts.

At the same time, note that with such strong news in favor of the dollar - the decline of the Euro was relatively small.

The new week - the main one for December - will set the market direction for the first months of next year:

Wednesday - the Fed's decision on rates - possible rate cuts.

Thursday - the ECB's decision.

Thursday, December 12 - British parliamentary elections - this will determine the fate of Brexit.

In addition, December 15 - the deadline after which Trump can impose new duties against China - if there is no progress in trade negotiations.

EUR/USD:

We still keep purchases from 1.1035, stop at 1.0990

Sales from 1.0980

Possible purchases when breaking through the top 1.1015

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Euro trades in range and prepares for a breakthrough while pound targets at annual maximum

A strong report on the US labor market in November provoked a rise in the dollar, but the effect was limited due to a number of additional factors in which the market figured out quite quickly.

A total of 266 thousand new jobs were created in November, and the data for September and October were also revised upwards by 41 thousand. A significant contribution to the final result was the inclusion in the statistics of the return of General Motors jobs after the strike, but without them, it would still remain at a high level.

As a result, the probability of a rate cut at the December meeting of the FOMC is now virtually excluded. The Fed receives a reason for a pause, and expectations on the rate are postponed to March. At the same time, there are several factors that indicate that the labor market is actually slowing down.

One of these leading indicators is the number of overtime hours worked. Its decrease usually leads to a general cooling of the labor market, and in November, the decline was especially strong.

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Meanwhile, the dynamics of NFIB vacancies have a similar dynamics, which showed the worst result in September-October since 2010. The NFIB index for November will be released on Tuesday, and if it turns out to be worse than expected, this will be a sign that a surge in non-pharms may be the last in the future in the coming months.

On the other hand, there is a weak wage growth (below expectations) and, as a result, insufficient inflationary pressure will continue to exert pressure on the dollar.

The development of the situation is pretty much dependent on the outcome of the trade dispute between the United States and China. If pressure on China persists, no deal will be concluded, stock indices will collapse, and the industrial sector will increase the fall, which will lead not only to lower real incomes and lower inflation, but also to a return of the threat of recession. On the contrary, the US economy will receive a positive impulse, if the parties announce successful dynamics in the negotiations or at least freeze current tariffs for the long-term.

EUR/USD

The key event for the euro this week is the ECB meeting on January 12 and the first press conference by Christine Lagarde on its results. No surprises are expected. The markets proceed from the fact that a number of measures announced at the September meeting will continue to operate, and there is no need to correct them. At the same time, even the absence of the need for adjustment will not allow Lagarde to evade a review of the situation, and thus, volatility can increase in any case, even if the wording of the accompanying statement remains unchanged.

Today, it is possible to increase volatility after the publication of Germany's trade balance for October. In turn, ZEW will be released on Tuesday on economic sentiment in the eurozone in December. A slight improvement is expected, which will support the euro before the ECB meeting.

The euro still looks neutral, the decline on Friday was moderate after strong non-farms. Thus, an attempt to resume growth looks a little more likely. The first resistance is 1.11, the next is 1.1172 / 75, and further 1.1208.

GBP/USD

The pound will continue to trade near the 7-month maximum, and even a strong report on non-pharma was almost completely won back by Friday evening. The reason, as usual, is political. According to YouGov's model, which most market participants trust, conservatives are 10-11 votes ahead of all other opponents. If Boris Johnson gets a majority in parliament, he will be able to complete a Brexit deal before Christmas, and Britain will exit the EU on January 31.

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If the forecasts do not come true and the opposition receives a majority, then the probability of a second referendum will sharply increase. Thus far, the markets assume that the victory of the conservatives will become a catalyst for a stronger pound, and win back these expectations, and so the pound will remain near the maximum until the election.

On Tuesday, an impressive package of macroeconomic data will be published – the trade balance and industrial production for October, as well as the NIESR estimate of GDP growth. Now, the targets for GBP/USD remain the same - the first resistance is 1.3170/90, while the second is the annual maximum of 1.3380. A correction before the announcement of the first election results is unlikely.

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EUR/USD Trading Levels 09.12

Below you can see the daily EUR/USD chart: it's quite a long term, but it is important to see from where we can draw a long term downtrend (Sept 2018) and where it is passing right now (around 1.1160); we can also see another dynamic resistance coming down from Jul2019 high and it has just been tested on Friday around 1.1020. This level is also being tested several times both as resistance and support from Apr of this year

USD gains ground amid the upbeat NFS report. Earlier, investors remained worried after the release of disappointing ISM and labour data. EUR/USD suffered losses the most on the last day of the week.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for December 9 - 2019

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GBP/JPY is consolidating before the next rally higher towards 143.25 and 144.55. Support at 141.70 will protect the downside for the next rally to 142.96 and 143.25 for the rally higher to 144.55.

A break below 141.70 will be of concern, but only a break below support at 140.81 will indicate red wave v and black wave iii already has completed and a more prolonged correction in wave iv is developing.

R3: 144.55

R2: 143.87

R1: 143.25

Pivot: 142.77

S1: 142.44

S2: 142.16

S3: 141.70

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.12 with our stop placed at 141.55. We will take profit at 144.45

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 9 - 2019

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EUR/JPY failed to break above 121.02 and started a new decline below 120.09. This was not our preferred outcome. It has only extended blue wave (ii) from a possible expanded flat to a more prolonged zig-zag correction. The ideal target for blue wave (ii) is seen at 119.88 from where a new rally is expected towards resistance in the 120.89 - 121.02 area. Once this level is overcome, it will go higher to 122.24 and 123.55.

R3: 121.02

R2: 120.89

R1: 120.42

Pivot: 120.24

S1: 119.88

S2: 119.78

S3: 119.67

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 120.00 was hit for a 11 pips loss. We will re-buy EUR at 119.95 or upon a break above 120.24

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on December 9. The pound is waiting for new opinion polls and did not react strongly

To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:

The British pound continues to be in demand among buyers and did not decline much after a good report on the state of the US labor market, which once again strengthened the confidence of traders that the Federal Reserve will not rush to lower rates at the end of this year. The bulls managed to regain the support level of 1.3125 on Friday and at the moment, their main task will be to protect this range. The formation of a false breakout on it will be an additional signal to open short positions but the main goal will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3167, which will open a direct road to the area of the highs of 1.3227 and 1.3265, where I recommend taking the profits. If opinion polls point to a decline in the UK Conservative Party's leadership, the pressure on the pound could intensify. In this case, it is best to open new long positions only after updating the lows of 1.3084 and 1.3037.

To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:

Sellers are in no hurry to return to the market and this was seen after the weak downward movement of GBP/USD on the background of the release of the report on the state of the US labor market, where the unemployment rate fell. At the moment, the bears will continue to actively defend the resistance of 1.3167, as above this range there is a mass of stop orders of sellers, the demolition of which will carry the pair even higher. The formation of a false breakout at 1.3167 will be a signal to sell the pound, but it is best to open short positions immediately on the rebound from the highs of 1.3227 and 1.3265. A more important task for sellers will be to break and consolidate below the intermediate support of 1.3125, which will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to a downward correction in the area of the lows of 1.3084 and 1.3037.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates another pause of buyers before the release of important data.

Bollinger Bands

Breaking the upper limit of the indicator around 1.3155 will lead to a more powerful bullish impulse. A break of the lower border around 1.3116 will increase the pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on December 9. Data on the labor market signaled a good state of the US economy

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Data on the US labor market, which was much better than economists' forecasts, strengthened investors' confidence that the Federal Reserve will no longer lower interest rates this year. This fact led to a sharp increase in the US dollar. At the moment, buyers of the euro need an urgent return to the resistance level of 1.1067, as it depends on it whether the downward movement will continue or not. If bulls fail to do this in the first half of the day, it is best to postpone purchases until the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1035, but it is best to buy EUR/USD immediately on the rebound from the minimum of 1.1004. The breakout and consolidation of the euro above the resistance of 1.1067 will lead to a larger upward correction and the return of the pair to the area of the maximum of 1.1092, where I recommend taking the profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears only have to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1067, which will be the first signal to open short positions in the euro. Weak data on the German foreign trade balance can lead to a breakdown and consolidation below the support of 1.1035, which will increase the pressure on the pair and allow sellers to reach the lows of 1.1004 and 1.0982, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the bears miss the level of 1.1067 in the first half of the day, then do not rush to open short positions. It is best to wait for the resistance update of 1.092 and sell the euro from there immediately on the rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which can lead to further downward correction in the pair.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of further decline, the euro will be supported by the lower border of the indicator, located in the area of 1.1035, while the growth will be limited to the middle of the channel in the area of 1.1065.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, December 09,2019

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When the European market opens, such economic data as Sentix Investor Confidence and German Trade Balance will be published. The US will not release any economic reports. So,amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1111. Strong Resistance: 1.1105. Original Resistance: 1.1094. Inner Sell Area: 1.1083.Target Inner Area: 1.1057. Inner Buy Area: 1.1031. Original Support: 1.1020.Strong Support: 1.1009. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1003. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, December 09, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Final GDP q/q, Final GDP Price Index y/y, Current Account, and Bank Lending y/y, while the US will not publish any economic reports today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.

3: 109.15. Resistance. 2: 108.93. Resistance. 1: 108.72. Support. 1: 108.46. Support. 2: 108.25. Support. 3: 108.03. (Disclaimer)

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Oil: long-term forecast

Oil - CL

From April 2011 to August 2014, the price of oil (WTI) formed an extended triangular graphic formation. In August 2014, the price went down from the triangle and plummeted until January 2016, reaching 26.14.

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The oil drop at the exit from the triangle that lasted for 75 weeks, exactly to the time point where the lines forming the triangle converge. From a minimum of 26.14, a new life cycle of the growth-decline market began. Our task is to determine the completion of a new market cycle.

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Now we see that the price has again formed a triangle, but this time it is smaller. The exit of the price from the triangle downward can provoke a 16-week fall before the end of March next year since the price in the second phase of the market's life cycle is in decline.

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The upper generatrix of the large triangle, with its parallel downward movement to the minimum of February 2009, exactly coincides with the minimum of January 2016. The parallel line from the generatrix of the small triangle exactly coincides at the point with its time peak and the line of the price channel of red color. At the point of convergence of the lines, the price corresponds to 25.00 dollars. This is the magnetic point that the price is striving for.

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We determine the time range (time delta) of decline using Fibonacci time zones. We take the historical peak of the market in July 2008 as the starting point. Exactly on the 13th line, the previous market life cycle ended. The succeeding which is the 14th line indicates the middle of July 2020. The price, respectively, is slightly lower which is equivalent to 20.80 dollars per barrel.

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So, in the summer of next year, the price of oil may become even cheaper than it was at the height of the global crisis of 2008 and the boom in shale oil production in the USA against the backdrop of the 2016 "OPEC crisis", the target range is 20.80-25.00.

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EUR/USD reacting below resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.10660

Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement

Take Profit : 1.10280

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.11090

Reason for Stop loss:

horizontal swing high resistance

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EUR/USD reacting below resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.10660

Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement

Take Profit : 1.10280

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.11090

Reason for Stop loss:

horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Reacting below resistance for a pullback

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.32701

Reason for Entry: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, Graphical Swing High

Take Profit : 1.32270

Reason for Take Profit:

38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.33270

Reason for Stop loss:

Horizontal Swing high

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USD/CHF approaching support, potential bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.9850

Reason for Entry: 161% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 0.9961

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal pullback resistance

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 0.9800

Reason for Stop loss:

horizontal swing low support

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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Forecast for USD / JPY on December 9, 2019

USD / JPY

On Friday, the price reached the first "bearish" target at the intersection of the MACD line with the embedded price channel line on the daily chart. Also, the dollar weakened against the stock market growth where, today in the Asian session, the US S&P 500 index gained 0.91% while the Japanese Nikkei225 is adding 0.26%, this comes on a very good basis. The Japanese GDP for the 3rd quarter in the final assessment was 0.4% against the forecast of 0.2%, the balance of payments in October increased to 1.73 trillion yen from 1.49 trillion, the volume of bank lending in November increased from 2.0% yearly to 2.1% . This does not mean that the yen hinders the growth of the USD / JPY pair apparently it even gathers forces to break through the support that has already been achieved. Meanwhile, on the daily chart,

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On a four-hour scale, Marlin is also held in a negative trend zone. If the price is fixed at the low of Friday (108.50), the scenario will be that the lower target 107.60 will open at the area of intersection of the green and red lines of the two price channels. Delay with a breakthrough may trigger a price increase to the first target up to the MACD line on H4 at the price of 109.08.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on December 9, 2019

EUR / USD

On Friday, the price returned to the Fibonacci level of 123.6% and under the embedded line of the declining blue price channel, due to excellent data on US employment. At the same time, the breakdown of support occurred exactly at the intersection of these two lines, which is a sign of strong movement, with prospects for further development. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, in turn, returned to the downward trend zone.

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The first target of the movement will be the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0985. After that, breaking through this support from which the price turned up on November 29 and 14, will open lower targets: 1.0925 (lows of September 12 and 3) and 1.0895. As it moves further, the price will have to fight with the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.0845 and go down to the lower line of the blue price channel in the region of 1.0710.

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On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the MACD line; the Marlin oscillator is completely in a downward trend.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on December 9, 2019

GBP / USD

The British pound came close to the target level at the Fibonacci level of 200.0% 1.3286. On the daily chart, a reversal pattern begins to appear. Thus, now, a reversal divergence may form with moderate growth or consolidation on the Marlin oscillator.

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The second target 1.3352 will open at the Fibonacci level of 223.6% with the price moving above the level of 1.3286, but even in this case, the divergence can be formed with a more gentle forming line only. The first "bearish" target is the Fibonacci level of 161.8%, which was a strong resistance at the peaks of October and November - 1.2968. The main driving force of the market will be the results of the elections in the UK on December 12.

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On the four-hour chart, the formation of a reversal divergence is also being prepared according to Marlin. The signal line of the oscillator will slightly increase if the pound rises to the first target 1.3206, after which a price and indicator reversal is likely. Moreover, the fundamental basis for such a reversal will be the "cost-conscious" victory of the conservatives in the parliamentary elections, since they retain an advantage over the Labor Party by 10%. The continuation of growth will also be directly related to the elections - to optimism about the deal with the EU. Another thing is that the deal is already considered "bad", but this issue will be raised by the markets a little later. Thus, we look forward to the results of the elections to the British Parliament on Thursday, December 12.

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GBP/USD. Will the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland still appear?

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Since it's been about a week before the elections, the main election opponents Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson continue to fight against each other despite the fact that all the main political forces of Great Britain have already played the main cards and Trump cards. In principle, it is clear to absolutely everyone that the main battle for the status of the "ruling party" will take place precisely between the Labor and Conservatives. Thus, the leaders of these parties continue to seek incriminating evidence against each other, blame each other and try to expose the rival party and its leader in the most unfavorable light possible. It can be recalled that not more than a week ago, Boris Johnson quite cynically used the tragedy on the London Bridge in the fight against the Labor Party, saying that it was the party of Corbyn that was to blame for it, which approved the law during its reign. According to which convicted of terrorist activities are entitled to early release. As a result, a terrorist who attacked civilians was released from prison ahead of schedule.

Now, it was the turn of the Labor leader himself, who allegedly published a secret document, and according to which, the border in the Irish Sea after Brexit would still appear. According to Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson is deliberately misleading people (respectively, the electorate), and Brexit for Johnson's "deal" will have devastating consequences for Northern Ireland, as customs control will begin to operate on the border between it and the rest of the UK, which in fact means a tight border. Thus, Corbyn accuses the Prime Minister of lying and acting in ways that are not in the public interest. In principle, something like this can be expected from Boris Johnson. It can be recalled the story of the prorogation of the UK Parliament, through which Johnson wanted to reach an unauthorized exit from the European Union, and that parliamentarians did not interfere with him. Naturally, for the public and the media, this decision of the Prime Minister was submitted under the sauce of preparing a new government plan, and not in any way so that the Parliament simply could not block Brexit, then still "tough" Brexit. As a result, Boris Johnson misled not only the population of Great Britain, but also Queen Elizabeth II herself, who approved Johnson's request for proprietorship.

Due to this, something similar may be happening now. It should be noted that the actions of Boris Johnson are far from always impeccable and clean, despite the fact that the Prime Minister is indeed very popular in the Kingdom. In addition, do not forget that Boris Johnson has not yet won a single significant victory at the helm of the UK. For this, he has already been convicted several times of incontinence, of trying to "bypass Parliament and the current legislation. Thus, it is entirely possible that Jeremy Corbyn is right when he talks about Johnson's true plans. A document, perhaps is no secret or perhaps, there is no document at all. However, the fact that there may indeed be a border between Ireland after the completion of Brexit is possible. And such an option to complete the "divorce" of the UK and the EU will mean potentially big problems on the island of Ireland in the future, where only they managed to suppress riots and protests thanks to the Belfast Treaty in 1998.

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GBP/USD. December 8. Results of the week. Traders do not expect any other outcome of the election, except for the complete

4 hour time-frame

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 53p - 82p - 138p - 65p - 66p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 81p (average).

What can be said about the GBP/USD currency pair following the results of last Friday, last week, and the past two months? Only one. Traders ignored almost all macroeconomic statistics for this period. Almost all macroeconomic reports from the UK over the past 2 months have been either extremely weak or completely failed. Only a small fraction of the "numbers" was more or less "at the level". Moreover, everything also applies to data from overseas. Almost all reports from the United States, which were often quite strong, were ignored by traders. Thus, the pound would now be stealing back to multi-year lows of about 1.2000 - 1.2300, if market participants reacted to these news and reports. Based only on this, we can conclude that the pound is now either very much overbought, or may collapse at any moment as soon as traders recall all the statistics that they ignored. Meanwhile, the British currency continues to grow solely on expectations of a favorable parliamentary election outcome, which is now identified with a Brexit favorable outcome in late January. There can only be one "favorable outcome" now - the victory of conservatives in the elections, in which they won at least 325 seats in the British Parliament. It is such an election finale that will allow Boris Johnson to implement Brexit before the end of January and put at end in this epic. However, traders do not seem to admit even the slightest probability that the election may end in any other way. Otherwise, the pound would have fallen from the value against the US dollar by not 30 points on Friday, and not at a time when there were no macroeconomic publications at all.

On the other hand, there were no important macroeconomic news in the UK last Friday, but this is not important, since traders are not interested in them now. During the last trading day of the week, volatility was below average. Thus, none of the range levels of the day has been reached. As for the most controversial topic of parliamentary elections, all parties continue to prepare for December 12, which is just around the corner. Next Thursday, the elections will finally be held and the results will be known on December 13. Then next week, the pound may return to the usual trading mode, when traders will develop all the news and macroeconomic data regarding the pair. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson played football in the English city of Cheadle as part of the final week of preparations for the 2019 Elections. He also announced that he will invest 550 million pounds in the development of this sport on the eve of the 2030 World Cup, which will be held in the UK if his party wins the election. In turn, Jeremy Corbyn drank coffee and met with leaders of the Welsh Labor Party. Liberal Democrats leader Jo Swinson played tennis at Shinfield, while Nigel Farage rode small businesses in Sedgefield England. As we can see, it seems that the leaders of the main political forces of Great Britain have already played all the Trump cards. As a result, it is unlikely that the mood of the electorate will change dramatically over the next few days. Despite that, opinion polls and social research still talk about the leading positions of conservatives, but Labor also "breathes in their backs," either reducing or widening the gap. Thus, at the moment, we still can not say with certainty at least 80%, whether the conservatives will win the election with the necessary margin from labour and other parties or not.

Based on this, we still recommend following the trend until December 12. That is, to put technical factors in the lead. Due to the fact that it will be possible to build further trade plans for December-2019 after the election is over and it becomes clear what kind of alignment of political forces will be in the Parliament. In addition, we believe that if Boris Johnson's party does not get enough votes, then the pound may fall down in the same way as it soared up two months ago. Now, the technical picture speaks of the minimal downward correction that began on Friday, which, however, could already be completed. Then, on Monday, the upward movement may resume, which completely contradicts the current fundamental background. More so, even technical corrections can now be completely shallow, similarly as on Friday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD is minimally adjusted at the moment. Thus, it is now recommended to trade for an increase with the target of 1.33234 since the pair managed to get out of the side channel as well as review new targets tomorrow morning to buy the British pound which will be determined based on average volatility and standard support/resistance levels. On the contrary, it is not recommended to consider pound sales now. Since the pair is very far from the Kijun-sen critical line, traders ignore any macroeconomic data, and the pound rises in price exclusively on the subject of parliamentary elections.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. December 8. Results of the week. "Black Friday" for the European currency.

4 hour time-frame

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 87p - 27p - 49p - 31p - 70p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 53p (average).

On Friday, December 6, the EUR/USD currency pair had every chance to continue the not-so-strong upward movement, as the macroeconomic publications planned for this day in America could not reach forecast values well. At the beginning of this week and last week, several macroeconomic reports from the United States have already made market participants nervous and even wonder whether the fed took a pause in the cycle of monetary policy easing too soon? However, as practice has shown, it is not early. The euro fell under serious market pressure and fell to the level of 1.1055, which we designated on Friday morning as the lower limit of the daily trading range for the euro/dollar pair. Thanks to the data received from overseas on Friday.

Let's start with the least significant Friday report, which, however, is quite important. In October, industrial production in Germany declined by 5.3% yoy and 1.7% mom. Here, even any comments are unnecessary. The only positive thing about this report is that it is an October issue. Nevertheless, industrial production in Germany and the EU may grow slightly in November since business activity in the industrial sector of the EU countries has increased slightly according to the latest data. However, at present, we are not observing anything positive in the industry of the locomotive country of the European economy. Furthermore, all data are related exclusively to the United States. The unemployment rate, as the least significant indicator, pleased traders as it fell to a new record level of 3.5%. The average hourly wage rose in November by 3.1% y / y, which is higher than experts' forecasts. At the same time, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 99.2 with the expectations of traders of 97.0. Now, the most anticipated indicator of the day NonFarm Payrolls with a very high forecast value of 180,000 managed to exceed it by 86,000 and make up 266,000 new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. Thus, as we can see, all macroeconomic data on Friday absolutely turned out to be in favor of the American currency, and traders did not ignore the statistics this time and worked it out as it should. In turn, the Euro currency was still lucky that the downward movement on Friday was relatively strong. The total volatility was only 70 points, although, given the nature of macroeconomic statistics, the fall of the Euro could have been much stronger.

Now, what is the result? What to expect now from the euro / dollar currency pair? We believe that the pair is getting new excellent chances to resume the downward trend. Firstly, technical factors, such as consolidation under the Kijun-sen critical line, speak in favor of this. Secondly, fundamental factors. As it turned out, the US economy shows weak signs of slowdown from time to time, but after immediate 3 cuts in the key Fed rate, it allowed macroeconomic statistics to show growth again. Moreover, the trade wars fired by Donald Trump with great enthusiasm do not exert too much pressure on the American economy. But even when statistics begin to deteriorate, the Fed can always lower its key rate, which currently stands at 1.75%. That is, the Fed has plenty of room for maneuver. On the other hand, what can not be said about the European Union and the ECB? In December, the first meeting of the Regulator will be held under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, who has already talked about the need for "strategic measures" and hinted in every way that reforms, stimulation of the EU economy, and structural changes are all needed. Recent reports from the European Union have inspired a little optimism in the minds of traders, but some numbers still remain at extremely low values, at which any growth is not important and significant, since the overall picture remains the same, but the values still remain extremely weak (for example, business activity in the manufacturing sector, industrial production, inflation). Moreover, trade wars and global uncertainty will continue to have a negative impact on the EU economy. Europe will have a hard time, if Trump begins to put pressure on the EU with his favorite weapon - trade duties. We can also add here the Brexit, which does not end in any way, which in the future can also add a negative impact on the EU economy, and we see that the prospects for the Alliance's economy, as well as Eurocurrencies, remain very vague.

From a technical point of view, a downward movement has begun, which is identified as a correction so far, although the price has already fixed below the Kijun-sen line. Thus, we believe that the fall of the pair will continue next week given the general fundamental background. Now, euro / dollar quotes need to break through the Ichimoku cloud, after which it will be more likely to expect a new downward trend.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has taken a big step towards a new downward trend. To open short positions, it is recommended to wait for the Ichimoku cloud to break through. In this case, the "dead cross" will strengthen, and the bears will be able to lower the euro / dollar to 1.0989 and 1.0959. Moreover, it is recommended to resume purchases of Eurocurrency in case that traders re-pin above the critical line.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com