Sony announced a record buyback of shares worth $ 910 million

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The Japanese multinational corporation Sony Corp. announced the launch of the largest share repurchase program (buyback) in the history of the company in the amount of 100 billion yen ($ 910 million).

Last year, the company did not make major purchases of its own shares. The current buyback started on Tuesday, February 5, and will run until March 22. The program will affect approximately 2.2% of the company's outstanding securities.

Last week, Sony published a quarterly financial report, which reported a decrease in revenue and worsened the annual forecast for this indicator, as a result, the company's capitalization dropped sharply by 8.1%.

After the announcement of the buyback value of the shares of Sony Corp. on the Tokyo Stock Exchange rose 4.10% to 4.906 yen.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for February 8, 2019

USD has been the dominant currency in the pair while CHF struggled to maintain the bearish momentum after the price broke above 0.9850 with a daily close. The US FED has been pleased about the recent economic growth in the US that enabled USD to dominate CHF.

Recently Switzerland's Foreign Currency Reserves report showed an increase to 741B from the previous figure of 729B. The positive Foreign Reserve report helped the currency to gain momentum against USD leading to certain correction in the pair. Recently US bank Goldman Sachs is holding talks with the Swiss Market watchdog over possible entering the country's mortgage market. If this step is accepted, the Swiss economy may turn quite volatile for several months.

On the USD side, today FED President of St. Louis Mr. James Bullard stated that the FED is currently trying to tame inflation downward as the inflation target has been already met, but higher inflation than this may affect the economy in the future. Moreover, recently US Unemployment Claims report was published with a decrease to 234k from the previous figure of 253k which unfortunately could not meet the expectation of decreasing to 220k. Ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's testimony on the state of the economy on 26th February, USD is expected to trade with higher volatility with the gains in the coming days.

Meanwhile, CHF managed to gain certain momentum over USD, blocking the impulsive bullish pressure established recently in the pair. CHF is expected to keep momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has formed Bearish Divergence recently while sitting at the edge of 1.00 area from where the price is expected to push lower towards 0.9850 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.0050 resistance area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to push lower in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 0.9850, 0.9950

RESISTANCE: 1.0050

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 8. Euro buyers were delighted with good statistics in the Eurozone

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Euro buyers returned to the market after good reports in Germany, where the balance of foreign trade increased and the industrial output increased in Italy. At the moment, the main task is to fix above the resistance level of 1.1343, which will lead to a larger upward correction in the area of 1.1366 and 1.1394, where I recommend to fix the profit. In the case of a re-decline of the euro to the support of 1.1322, long positions are best considered on a false breakdown and you can buy the EUR/USD pair for a rebound from a minimum of 1.1292.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

In the morning, sellers did not have enough in the market to resume the downward trend. Short positions in the second half of the day can be seen at the rebound from the resistance of 1.1366 or from a new high in the area of 1.1394, where euro buyers will take profits. The main task of the bears by the end of the week is to sustain trading below the resistance level of 1.1343, which will make it possible to count on a further decline in the EUR/USD pair.

More in the video forecast for February 8

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator falls, which does not give signals on market entry, and a breakthrough of the upper border in the area of 1.1355 may lead to a larger growth of the European currency.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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BITCOIN Analysis for February 8, 2019

The crypto market has been struggling for gains. Bitcoin being the flagship of the whole market of cryptocurrencies is struggling below $3500 area. According to Binance CEO, to make the crypto industry grow ETF's cannot be the core.

Recently Bitcoin mining has become more decentralized and diversified which may determine the upcoming momentum of the most popular crypto currency in the coming days. As for the technical view, the price pushed higher impulsively after breaking above the Trend Line resistance above $3,400. The price is expected to extend a rally higher towards $3,500 and later towards $3,600 in the coming days. The dynamic level of 20 EMA is also being broken above by the current price formation which also signals the strength of the bulls at the moment. As the price remains above $3,360 with a daily close, the bullish pressure is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,250, 3,360

RESISTANCE: 3,500, 3,600, 4,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on February 8. The pound continues to be in demand for positive news about Brexit

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Pound buyers coped well with the support level of 1.2922, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast, which is expected, led to the continuation of the formation of an upward correction. The main goal for the second half of the day will be the test of the resistance level of 1.2993, a breakthrough of which will lead to a new maximum in the area of 1.3048, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline in GBP / USD, you can still count on purchases from support at 1.2922.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Only bad news on Brexit can put pressure on the pound. Sellers are required to return to the support level of 1.2922, which will lead to a larger sale of GBP / USD with a test of 1.2860, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a further upward correction, you can take a closer look at short positions in the false breakdown around 1.2993 or sell a pound to rebound from a high of 1.3048.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, indicating a continuation of the upward correction on the pound.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low. A break of the upper border around 1.2975 will lead to a larger increase in the pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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February 8, 2019: The EUR/USD pair is currently approaching the daily uptrend line around 1.3000.

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

A further bullish advance was expected towards the price level of 1.1550 where the upper limit of both depicted channels (RED & BLUE) was located.

However, the EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

Hence, the current bearish closure below 1.1420 terminates the current bullish movement (initiated on January 25) allowing another bearish visit towards 1.1350 and 1.1300.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for the current bearish pullback to pursue towards the price zone of 1.1285-1.1300 (lower limit of the depicted movement channel) for a valid BUY entry.

T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420. S/L to be located below 1.1250.

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February 8, 2019: GBP/USD is demonstrating bullish recovery around the backside of the broken trend.

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.

As expected, the recent bearish decline below 1.3150 brought the GBP/USD pair into a deeper bearish correction towards 1.3000 where lack of bullish demand was recently noticed.

That's why, further bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.2920-1.2950 where (38.2% Fibonacci level) as well as the backside of the depicted broken trend are located (in RED).

For the bullish scenario to remain valid, significant bullish recovery should be demonstrated around the current price levels 1.2920-1.2950. This would enhance a quick bullish visit towards 1.3000 and 1.3150.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should consider the current bearish pullback towards 1.2940-1.2920 (backside of the broken downtrend in RED) for a valid BUY entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.3055, 1.3155 and 1.3200. Any bearish H4 closure below 1.2900 invalidates this scenario.

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EUR / USD. European Commission report: "everything is bad and will be even worse"

The European currency cannot get out of the tangle of fundamental problems. At the beginning of this year, almost all macroeconomic indicators of the eurozone disappointed. Germany's consumer price index, data on the growth of GDP in Italy, France, and the entire eurozone, all of these indicators were in the "red zone", showing a negative trend.

Against this background, the euro-dollar pair did not keep within the 14th figure, and gradually approaches the borders of the 12th level. The price has consistently declined for more than a week after the EUR / USD bulls have updated their annual maximum at around 1.1502. Despite the ambiguous dynamics of the dollar index, the pair bears still have a common advantage, although the downward movement is not of an impulsive nature.

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The latest blow to the euro was yesterday's report by the European Commission, in which a new outlook for economic growth in the eurozone was published. Its essence boils down to a disappointing conclusion: "everything is bad, and it will be even worse." Thus, according to the EC, this year the eurozone economy will increase by only 1.3%, and next year, by 1.6%. For comparison: last fall, the European Commission had a completely different opinion, an increase of 1.9% in 2019 and two percent in 2020.

There are several reasons for such a radical revision of forecasts, but all of them are somehow connected with China. According to the EC, the slowdown of the economy of the Middle Kingdom will lead to a slowdown of the global economy, and the trade war between the United States and China will only aggravate the situation. Also, Brussels actually admitted that it doubted the successful outcome of trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington. Judging by the report of the EC, this factor is associated with the main risks that influenced such negative forecasts.

It is noteworthy that the report of the European Commission was the most pessimistic, compared with similar forecasts, which were published earlier by other financial structures. For example, according to the International Monetary Fund, the EU economy will grow by 1.6% this year. According to the European Central Bank, by 1.7%.

If we look at the structure of the published report, we can make an obvious conclusion: economic growth will slow down to some degree in all EU countries. In this context, Germany, the "locomotive of Europe", is of primary interest. The European Commission lowered the forecast for German GDP growth to 1.1%, whereas previously this figure was at around 1.8%.

It is worth recalling here that at the end of January, the German Ministry of Economy reported that the forecast for the growth of the national economy this year was lowered to 1%. This is a significant revision, as the Germans previously hoped to grow to 1.8%. In other words, here the estimates of the European Commission and the German government almost coincide. And this is a very sad fact since it is very likely that the German economy will pull European-wide indicators behind it, especially against the background of a slowdown in the rest of the eurozone countries. In particular, the growth forecast for the Italian economy was immediately reduced by one percentage, that is, from 1.2% to 0.2%.

This means that, in addition to economic problems, we should expect political ones, when at the end of this year, Italy will impose its budget for 2020. Last year, Brussels and Rome were able to find a compromise, but this was preceded by months-long political battles that put background pressure on the euro. With a high degree of probability, this year this situation may recur, and it is far from a fact that it will end with a happy ending.

Thus, the report of the European Commission once again reminded traders that the key to tightening the monetary policy of the ECB is in China. This simple fact enhances the role of the negotiation process between Beijing and Washington, because the outcome of the global economy, with all the ensuing consequences, depends on their outcome.

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To the dismay of the EUR / USD bulls, the anxiety about the success of the US-China dialogue only increases. For example, Donald Trump today surprised traders by not meeting with PRC Chairman Xi Jinping, at least until the negotiation deadline, which is set to be on March 1. This statement is indeed somewhat puzzling. The fact is that he recently said that in order to conclude a trade transaction, he needed to meet with the Chinese leader in order to "discuss some difficult issues." Taking into account the latest statements of Trump, the market once again spread rumors that the negotiation process is "stalling," and the trade war could flare up with a new force in the spring.

Despite such a "bunch" of negative fundamental factors, the bears of the pair will not easily overcome the important support level of 1.1305 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). Overcoming this target will open the way to the 12th figure, but for such a price movement a strong news impulse is needed.

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EUR / USD: pessimism around the euro rolls over

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Today, the single European currency continues to develop a "bearish" momentum, declining against the dollar for the past five trading days in a row.

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Another portion of negative news for the euro on the eve came from the European Commission, which worsened the forecast for 2019 for GDP growth in the currency bloc from 1.9% to 1.3%. In particular, the estimate for the German economy was lowered by 0.7%, from 1.8% to 1.1%.

In addition, yesterday the ECB reiterated that the risks associated with growth prospects in the eurozone shifted to a downward trend.

"The incoming data turned out to be weaker than expected, reflecting a decrease in the contribution of external demand and some country and industry factors," representatives of the financial institution said.

Rumors about the lack of progress in trade negotiations between the US and the Middle Kingdom have added fuel to the fire, which was another blow to the euro.

According to Larry Kudlow, chief economic adviser to the American president, Washington, and Beijing are still far from concluding a deal. It also appeared that Donald Trump does not intend to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping before March 1.

It should be noted that it was trading wars that reduced external demand and served as one of the reasons for the slowdown in European GDP last year.

Therefore, it is not surprising that in the current situation, the euro continues to suffer losses, and the dollar feels great.

Despite the fact that the Fed probably paused the process of raising interest rates this year, greenbacks still seem more attractive to traders than other currencies.

"Paradoxically, but a fact: the dollar is growing even in the face of falling yields on US bonds. If the market again starts laying the price increase later this year, and the yield on 10-year-old treasuries goes up, it will support another wave of the dollar rally," said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

If we proceed from the fact that the prospects for the European economy are really so bad, and trade wars will resume with a new force, then the EUR / USD route to the south is assured.

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Dollar puts the euro in check

The US dollar punished its critics for arrogance, soaring to the maximum level against the euro since the end of January. It was then that Mario Draghi puzzled the EUR/USD "bulls" with a message about conversations inside the Governing Council about the launch of LTRO. Then, the pair began to buy back in the hope of exhaustion of such growth drivers of the "American" amid divergences in monetary policy and economic growth, as well as trade wars. Further events showed that selling the dollar was too early.

If based on the results of 2018, the EUR/USD pair fell by more than 5% due to the aggressive monetary restriction of the Fed, accelerated under the influence of the fiscal stimulus of US GDP growth and demand for safe-haven assets during trade wars. In 2019 Reuters experts painted a different. The Federal Reserve will pause for a long time and the US economy will slow down under the influence of the fading effect of tax reform and the government's shutdown while Beijing and Washington will agree. As a result, the euro will end the year at $1.2 according to a median forecast of more than a hundred specialists. The problem is that the main pair can move as you like until December, including proset to 1.1-1.12. Some investors rushed to get rid of dollars in January and they were punished.

There are always two currencies in any pair and if the "American" lost last year's Trump cards, then this does not mean that he will fall. The euro looks weaker than before and the EU predicts a slowdown in GDP growth in the eurozone to 1.3% in 2019 compared with the Fed's expected expansion of the US economy by 2-2.5%. this figure casts doubt on the ability of the bulls to restore an upward trend in EUR/USD. Let the Fed stand on the sidelines but if the ECB starts to expand incentives through the long-term refinancing program, the euro will definitely go down.

Change in GDP forecasts for the eurozone countries

There is no certainty that the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing will be complete safely. Advisor to the President, Larry Kudlow, said that the parties are far from agreement, and Donald Trump does not plan to meet with Xi Jinping before March 1. Let me remind you that from March 2, the United States will increase the tariff on $ 200 billion to Chinese imports from 10% to 25% and earlier, the White House owner argued that the agreement could be signed only by the presidents. In addition, having dealt with China, there are fears that the US will take on the European Union, which will be even more painful for European exports.

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Yet to sprinkle ashes on your head with the bulls on EUR / USD is not worth it. Surely, in the near future, American macroeconomic statistics under the influence of bad weather and government shutdowns will begin to deteriorate, which again will return to the markets talk of a recession and the need to reduce the federal funds rate.

Technically, the consolidation of EUR/USD pair in the range of 1.1265-1.1485 continues. The breakthrough of support levels at 1.129 and 1.1265 triggers the "Perfect Butterfly" pattern with a target of 127.2%. To save intrigue "bulls", it must return quotes above 1.1355.

EUR / USD daily chart

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GBP/USD analysis for February 08, 2019

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The GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. We found strong impulsive upward move followed by the breakout of the bullish flag pattern, which is sign that buyers are in control and that upward movement is expected. The price is trading above the Ichimoku and kijun-tenkan sen lines, which is another sign of the strength.Short-term support is placed at 1.2920 and short-term resistance at 1.2995.

Trading recommendation: We are long on the GBP/USD pair from 1.2960. Targets are set at the price of 1.2995 and 1.3065. Protective stop is placed at 1.2915.

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Analysis of Gold for February 08, 2019

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Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1.310.00. I found that price finally made a break of the downward channel in the background, which is a sign that there is potential change in trend dynamic from bearish to bullish. Also, I found that a breakout of the intraday bullish flag pattern, which is another confirmation of strength. Short-term resistance is set at $1.315.90 and short-term support is set at $1.307.00.

Trading recommendation: We are long on Gold from $1.310.00 and targets at $1.315.90 and $1.322.50. Protective stop is placed at $1.301.00.

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Bitcoin analysis for February 08, 2019

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Our second scenario from yesterday came into the play. Bitcoin did a successful breakout of the resistance at the price of $3.434 and the supply trendline (white line) in the background, which is a sign that buyers took control from sellers. Intraday support is set at the price of $3.425.

Trading recommendation: We are bullish on Bitcoin from $3.450 with the profit target at $3.541. Protective stop is placed at $3.390.

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Control zones of NZD / USD pair 02/08/19

Today, the February option contract will expire, implying an increase in volatility in the American session. This fact may accelerate the implementation of the descending priority model. Yesterday, there was a consolidation below the weekly CZ of 0.6798-0.6784. The next downward target is 1/2 CZ of 0.6714-0.6707. Reaching this zone will allow fixing the rests of sales. This must be done due to the fact that the pair has gone beyond the weekly average move.

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A Downward movement at this stage is an impulse, hence, any growth must be perceived as a correction. This will allow you to find better prices for repeat sales of the tool.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair starts to grow from current levels. The main resistance will be at 1/2 CZ of 0.6806 - 0.6799. As long as the pair is trading below this zone, the probability of updating the local minima will be more than 70%. Achieving this zone will provide the most favorable prices for the sale of the instrument. Breakdown and consolidation above the level of 0.6806 will complete the downward impulse and indicate a change of priority.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 08, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend.

According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 08, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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The growth forecast for the European economy is worsened

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According to Bloomberg, citing the updated forecast of the European Commission (EC), this year the eurozone economy will grow only by 1.3%, not 1.9%, as previously reported. Recall that in the euro area includes 19 European countries, and their official currency is the euro.

In November last year, the EC forecast was more optimistic. He envisioned growth in both 2018 and 2019. In 2020, according to the forecast, the European authorities expected a rise of 1.7%, and at the moment, the estimate is adjusted to 1.6%.

Experts recorded a deterioration in expectations for 2019 with respect to the largest economies of the EU, Germany, France, and Italy. As for the Italian economy, the forecast for GDP growth was revised radically to 0.2% from the previous 1.2%.

The revision of the forecast in the direction of deterioration was affected by the increase in social tensions and political instability associated with the protests of the "yellow vests" in France and the problem of leaving the UK from the EU. Among other factors, the European Commission calls the problem with the budgets of a number of European countries and weak indicators in the automotive industry.

According to experts, the European economy is adversely affected by weak growth in world trade, as well as a slowdown in the PRC economy. This increases the risk of tightening the fiscal policy of the United States, and China's economic growth may decline further, analysts say. At the same time, the markets of developing countries remain vulnerable to global risks, emphasize the European Commission.

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Simplified wave analysis of GOLD for February 8

Large-scale graphics:

The vector of the dominant direction of the short-term trend of gold is directed upwards. The wave completes a larger ascending design, the preliminary target zone of which is in the region of $ 1400 / oz.

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Medium scale graphics:

The rising wave of November 13 formed the final part (C) in the model of the older TF. After a breakthrough of powerful resistance, a rollback took place.

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Small-scale graphics:

The descending section of the schedule of January 31 in the wave of the hourly scale formed an intermediate correction. The wave is nearing completion.

Forecast and recommendations:

The period of stabilization of the price of gold has not yet come. After the current pullback, a new round of price growth will soon follow, which supporters of the short-term trading style can take advantage of.

Resistance zones:

- 1375.0 / 1380.0

Support areas:

- 1300.0 / 1295.0

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Experts recommend buying EM currency

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Analysts of the American company Pimco, one of the world's largest investors in the bond market, are advised to pay attention to currencies in emerging markets. They are sure that they should buy them, and not US dollars or euros.

Pimco believes that at the moment, there are many reasons to acquire the assets of emerging markets (EM). Experts consider them to be the most promising, despite warnings by analysts from some of the world's largest banks that growth in this sector may stop.

According to Geraldine Sandstrom, managing director of Pimco, support for securities from emerging markets is provided by such factors as a pause in the Fed raising interest rates, easing the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, and measures aimed at stimulating the Chinese economy. The expert believes that a mutual agreement will emerge between the two leading economies of the world, and China's rational approach to stimulating the economy will accelerate the growth of the country in the second half of 2019. "The Fed will take a pause for several months. If the trade war ends, and Chinese incentives work, it will be good news for the whole world, especially for emerging markets," G. Sandstrom said.

However, most investors are pessimistic about China because of threats by US President Donald Trump to raise tariffs. At the same time, they are showing excessive and unsubstantiated optimism about the ability of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to successfully carry out economic reforms in the country, notes G. Sandstrom. The Managing Director believes that an improvement in the business cycle in the semiconductor industry could serve as a growth driver for Asian stock markets. As for the Brazilian stock market, it may not justify the hopes of investors who are betting on a complete revision of the pension system. At the same time, dollar bonds in the Chinese real estate sector and stocks of companies in the consumer sphere of China look attractive, Mr. Sandstrom sums up.

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GBP / USD. February 8th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Carney tried to calm the markets, but the effect may

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -58.0765

The currency pair GBP / USD on Friday, February 8, corrected to the moving average line, but could not overcome it and is preparing for the resumption of the downward movement. From our point of view, the strengthening of the British currency on the eve was completely illogical from the point of view of the nature of the statements made by Mark Carney at a press conference devoted to the meeting of the Bank of England. We wrote about this yesterday. But from a technical point of view, everything is justified. The usual correction to the moving average, after which the main movement should resume. Of course, there were some positive moments in Carney's speech. For example, the head of the Bank of England noted the growing real incomes of citizens. He also said that an unordered Brexit would not necessarily mean a reduction in the key rate. However, we believe that with such statements, Mark Carney wanted to calm the markets, which are already quite nervous in recent months. The loss of the pound sterling over the years of Brexit is already very tangible, the new Carney pigeon performance could have sent the pound to the lows of 2018. But we believe that the pound of this fate still cannot be avoided. There are no prerequisites for Theresa May to negotiate with EU leaders. The next vote on her Brexit project is likely to be postponed, with less than two months remaining until the final release date. No positive.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2939

S2 - 1.2878

S3 - 1.2817

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3000

R2 - 1.3062

R3 - 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD is trying to resume movement down. Therefore, now sell orders with targets of 1.2878 and 1.2817 are relevant again. Below the instrument moving, there is a downward trend.

Long positions are recommended to open in case of reverse fixing of the price above the moving average with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3123. But there are few fundamental grounds for a new pound fortification.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. February 8th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pair is slowly moving towards the calculated target.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -106.9837

On the last trading day of the week, the EUR / USD currency pair continues its steady downward movement. Yesterday's attempt to start an upward correction ended without starting. The pair confidently overcame the Murray level of "2/8" - 1.1353. Thus, we still expect a decline to the Murray level of "1/8" - 1.1292, near which we will expect a turn up. The Heikin Ashi indicator will signal the start of an upward movement. Of course, the pair can continue to move below Murray's level of 1/8. But, from our point of view, this will require strong fundamental reasons. Yesterday, no important economic data was received from the EU and the States. There are also no important macroeconomic reports scheduled for February 8. Thus, the continuation of low-volatility tool reduction today is a very likely option. The Bank of England meeting and its results had no impact on the EUR / USD currency pair. In general, even with the completion of the Fed rate increase policy (1 or 2 increases may still be), the US economy still looks stronger and the dollar is more attractive for investment. Thus, in the long run, we still expect the pair to decline further.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to move down. Therefore now short positions with the purpose of 1.1292 are still actual. As before, the manual reduction of the short positions will be possible when the Heikin Ashi indicator turns up.

Long positions will become relevant not earlier than traders overcome the moving average. In this case, we will expect an upward movement with the first target of 1.1475.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bank of England: uncertainty over Brexit is not a hindrance for the pound

The message that the leaders of the United States and China may not meet before March 1 was the cause of strong sales at the stock markets of Europe and the United States. CNBC reported that the likelihood of such a meeting was "extremely small," and the head of the White House National Economic Council, Lawrence Kudlow, in an interview with Fox Business, was forced to admit that there was still a lot of disagreement and a lot of work was needed to overcome them.

Since it is from March 1, the United States intends to increase import duties from China by 25%, the markets assumed that until that time, the leaders of the two countries could find a mutually acceptable solution. If the meeting does not take place, the positive accumulated in advance can disappear in the blink of an eye, which will lead to a drop in risky assets and an increase in demand for gold and bonds.

Eurozone

Exports and imports in Germany and in December were better than expected, an increase of 1.5% and 1.2% against + 0.4% and -1.6% a month earlier, but in order to support the euro, this is clearly not enough. Today, EUR / USD will look for direction, trade is likely to take place in the sideways range, an attempt to test the minimum of 1.1323 reached on Thursday is not ruled out, since the next target of 1.1288 is still of higher priority. Correctional rise to 1.1365 / 70 is possible, but it is less likely.

Great Britain

As expected, the Bank of England unanimously voted to keep the rate at 0.75%, simultaneously lowering forecasts for both GDP and inflation. The forecast for economic growth in 2019 has been reduced from 1.7% to 1.2%, in 2020 from 1.7% to 1.5%, and only from 2021 will economic growth accelerate.

Despite the fact that the Bank made an amendment to the need for revision after the situation with Brexit becomes more defined, the forecasts look too optimistic. PMI indices are very bad and point to zero growth in Q1, so for a yield of 1.2% during the year, a strong positive contribution from the other three quarters will be required.

But it is completely unclear at what resources this contribution will be received. As noted in the report on inflation, investment growth in business fell in the UK lower than in all G7 countries, and last year became completely negative.

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At the same time, there are no problems associated with tightening financial conditions. The depreciating pound maintains a high level of profitability of capital, especially in the manufacturing sector, there are no significant changes in the cost or availability of bank lending. The Bank of England predicts that throughout 2019 business investment will continue to decline, as the uncertainty associated with Brexit persists.

Partially optimism is due to the growth in average wages, which is at its highest level in 10 years, and therefore the regulator expects that inflation will resume in the near future, and consumption will be sufficient for economic growth.

Be that as it may, the chances that the Bank of England will raise the rate in May have dropped to almost zero. At best, the market is waiting for this step in November, and then only if certain conditions are met. As Mark Carney explained at the press conference, the rate may be raised earlier, as soon as the uncertainty with Brexit is clarified, since companies in the changed conditions will be able to resume investment plans.

Some hopes were pinned on Theresa May's talks with EU leaders on Thursday, but they didn't bring any significant results. As stated by J.-C. Juncker, the EU will not re-discuss the agreement on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU, another meeting is scheduled until the end of February, but the chances for a breakthrough are still not high.

The minimum of 1.2852 reached on the eve will remain as a guideline, GBP / USD may make another attempt at corrective growth and test for strength of 1.2989, however, trading in the range is more likely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD / USD pair on February 8, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The decline in prices for most commodities increases the pressure on the Australian currency, which was observed yesterday. Oil, copper, as well as, coffee and sugar fell by 2.48%, 0.36% and more than 1.0%, respectively. On both daily and the four-hour charts, the downward trend is fully maintained, which allow us to consider the option of fixing below the price channel line at 0.7043 as the main one. However, the reversal of the Marlin signal line on H4 can speak of a maturing correction. If it happens, it is unlikely that the price can go above the range of 0.7118 / 50, where the price consolidated in the 1st and 3rd decade of January.

After completion of the correction when it takes place, it is ideal to wait for the price on the downstream line of the price channel in the area of 0.6920.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for February 8. Bullish divergence predicts growth

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD consolidated below the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. As a result, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.1269. On February 8, bullish divergence at the MACD indicator is still maturing. The education will allow traders to expect a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth of the pair. Closing the rate above the Fibo level of 23.6% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of growth in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.1446.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair continues the process of falling in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Rebounding the course of the pair from this level will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the euro currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no ripening divergences today. Fixing quotes below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair EUR / USD can be carried out with a target of 1.1446 if the pair closes above the correction level of 23.6% and a Stop Loss order under 1.1358, especially in combination with the formation of bullish divergence.

New sales of the currency pair EUR / USD can be carried out now with the target of 1.1269, as the pair completed closing below the level of 1.1358 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358 and left them open until the bullish divergence is formed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for February 8. The pound has rolled back and is ready for a new fall

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart performed a rebound from the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2869, an increase to the Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2969 and rebound from it. As a result, on February 8, the pair is ready to turn in favor of the American currency and return the quotes to the level of 50.0%. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.3094.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, after the pair's rebound from the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2878, the quotations made a U-turn in favor of the British currency and a close above the Fibo level of 50.0% - 1.2943. Thus, the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.3008. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 50.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the American dollar and it is expected to resume falling towards the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2878.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 15, 2019, and January 25, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair GBP / USD can be carried out now with the target of 1.3008 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 50.0%, since the pair completed the close above the level of 1.2943 (hourly chart).

New sales of the currency pair GBP / USD will be possible with the target of 1.2878 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 50.0% if the pair closes below the Fibo level of 1.2943 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 02/08/2019

The big picture: High uncertainty.

1. Brexit: British Prime Minister May is making new efforts to reach an acceptance by the British Parliament of an agreement with the EU but so far there has been no success. At the same time, the pound is holding high as if telling us that the absence of a British-EU agreement does not frighten the markets much.

2. After February 15, a new shutdown in the USA is possible.

3. There are no positive impulses for the euro.

At the moment, sellers are stronger and inevitably push the euro to the key lows of the long range below 1.1300.

A break below 1.1285 paves the way for a strong fall in the euro.

In the case of another upward reversal, the upward trend will start above 1.1515.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Lateral dynamics of the markets will continue until March

Financial markets are still captive to the trade war between the United States and China. The endless comments of the American politicians, including the president, on the topic of the negotiations on trade with China that they are already successful, do not seem to impress. The hollowing of the American side and the silence of the Chinese only indicate that there is really no progress, which means that the risk of raising the customs duties of the American side on March 1 from 10% to 25% for goods from China in the amount of $ 200 billion is becoming more real and more real.

The narrowing of the window of the probability of reaching an agreement makes investors nervous, which is the cause of high volatility in the markets. If at the moment the interest of bidders is maintained as a whole, for example, by the positive reporting of American companies, then there are sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, which, nevertheless, it should be recognized, in pairs where there is a dollar, move in ranges.

Against the background of a state of uncertainty, which is generated not only by the lack of positive news from the talks between Washington and Beijing, but also by clear signs of a slowdown in the global economy and a possible onset of recession in Europe this year, the dynamics of the foreign exchange market are characterized by sudden and sometimes unexpected movements. For example, after at the end of last year, Fed members began to signal a possible pause in raising interest rates, the dollar came under pressure, which was aggravated by a prolonged interruption in the work of the US government, but at the end of last week, the situation radically changed. Investors, using positive data from the labor market, began to actively buy the dollar, and it began to grow in foreign exchange markets, and this dynamics is likely to continue today.

We have previously indicated and now we will confirm that this behavior of the foreign exchange market is not due to local strength or weakness of the US currency. In our opinion, the market dynamics is due to the lack of a clear understanding by investors of what to expect in the near future. That is why there is, in general, the movement of currency pairs, where the dollar is in the lateral ranges. But currencies-opponents of the dollar do not have the "forces" to form a clear and stable trend precisely because of the extreme degree of uncertainty that dominates the markets.

We believe that such dynamics will continue at least until the beginning of March.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair AUD / USD is trading below the level of 0.7085. We expect the pair to continue to fall to 0.7035.

The currency pair NZD / USD is at the level of 0.6750. We continue to expect it to fall to 0.6690 if the pair does not consolidate above the level of 0.6750.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of the foreign exchange market on 08.02.2019

It feels like Theresa May flew to Brussels for breakfast, as for them the hospitable Jean-Claude Juncker fed her. Of course, the head of the European Commission promised to make adjustments to the political declaration of intent, which outlines the common and rather vague contours of interaction between the European Union and the United Kingdom after Brexit, in order to take into account a number of concerns of the British parliament. However, expressing regret for extremely tight deadlines, he explained that he would be able to submit amendments to the declaration only after the same parliament adopts the version of the agreement already agreed by the countries of the European Union, to which Europe will not make any changes. Stressing that there can be no talk of changing the agreement. In other words, Theresa May is once again invited to take a word and accept the agreement, which does not suit the UK very much, in the hope that later the European Union will deign to supplement it with those items that will take into account the national interests of the United Kingdom. True, the words that the European Union is ready to expand the number of formulations for a political declaration so strongly inspiring market participants that everything else they had not heard according to the reaction.

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Before the results of the intense meeting between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker had a positive impact on the pound, Mark Carney made another attempt to weaken his position. Naturally, following the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England, the parameters of monetary policy remained unchanged, and everyone was looking forward to the speech of his head. The head of the regulator himself said that the risks associated with Brexit are extremely high, and so far there can be no question of raising the refinancing rate. Rather, we need to prepare for its possible reduction. Indeed, only with the most unfavorable developments and as if confirming the fears, the Bank of England once again lowered the forecast for economic growth rates, making it clear that it proceeds from the worst case scenario.

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However, although the American statistics did not justify the forecasts, it showed quite good results. Thus, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 61 thousand compared to the forecast of 90 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications decreased by 19 thousand and not by 32 thousand.

Today, any serious data is expected to come out neither in Europe nor in the United States. Hence, the market has a reason to consolidate because it's too early to talk about correction since there are no special reasons for joy in either pound or single European currency. True, some kind of diversity can influence regular statements regarding Brexit as Theresa May will hold a number of more meetings in Brussels today. True, they are of a purely technical and formal nature, and it is unlikely that their results will greatly affect investor sentiment. Therefore, the single European currency will remain in the region of 1.1325 - 1.1350.

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The pound will be around 1.2900 - 1.2975. Simply because the volatility of the pound is slightly higher than that of the single European currency.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for February 8)

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we expect the downward movement after the breakdown of 1.1326, and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the price forms a small initial condition for the top of February 7 in the correction of the downward cycle. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the upward trend development is expected after the breakdown of 1.0027. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the upward structure of January 31 is expected to continue to develop after the breakdown of 110.22 and at the moment, the price is in the zone of initial conditions. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, we expect further development of the downward structure of February 4 after the breakdown of 124.30. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we continue to monitor the downward structure of February 4.

Forecast for February 8:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1416, 1.1384, 1.1366, 1.1326, 1.1307, 1.1284, 1.1271 and 1.1245. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of January 31. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1326 - 1.1307 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.1284 and in the range of 1.1284 - 1.1271 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1245, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The corrective uptrend is possible in the range of 1.1366 - 1.1384 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1416 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1366 Take profit: 1.1384

Buy 1.1386 Take profit: 1.1414

Sell: 1.1326 Take profit: 1.1307

Sell: 1.1305 Take profit: 1.1284

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3068, 1.3015, 1.2991, 1.2929, 1.2885, 1.2828 and 1.2789. Here, the price issued a small initial condition for the upward movement in the correction of the downward structure on January 28. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2929 - 1.2885 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2828. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2789, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

The correction movement is possible in the range of 1.2991 - 1.3015 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3068.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 28, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2991 Take profit: 1.3015

Buy: 1.3017 Take profit: 1.3060

Sell: 1.2929 Take profit: 1.2888

Sell: 1.2883 Take profit: 1.2830

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0114, 1.0081, 1.0058, 1.0027, 1.0009, 0.9998 and 0.9978. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 31. The continuation of the upward trend development is expected after the breakdown of 1.0027. In this case, the target is 1.0058 and in the range of 1.0058 - 1.0081 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0114, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.0009 - 0.9998 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9978.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0027 Take profit: 1.0058

Buy: 1.0060 Take profit: 1.0080

Sell: 1.0009 Take profit: 0.9998

Sell: 0.9996 Take profit: 0.9978

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 111.32, 111.08, 110.66, 110.22, 109.64, 109.34 and 109.01. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 31. The movement upwards is expected after the breakdown of 110.22. Here, the target is 110.66 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 110.66 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 111.08. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 111.32, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 109.64 - 109.34 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 109.01 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have to develop a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 108.48.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.22 Take profit: 110.65

Buy: 110.68 Take profit: 111.08

Sell: 109.64 Take profit: 109.36

Sell: 109.32 Take profit: 109.03

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3432, 1.3401, 1.3348, 1.3327, 1.3293, 1.3269, 1.3240 and 1.3206. Here, in connection with the intensive development of volatility, we have defined subsequent targets for the top of large initial conditions (see image). The movement upwards is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3327 - 1.3348. In this case, the target is 1.3401. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3432, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3293 - 1.3269 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3240 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price passage will count on the movement towards the potential target of 1.3206.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3350 Take profit: 1.3400

Buy: 1.3404 Take profit: 1.3430

Sell: 1.3293 Take profit: 1.3270

Sell: 1.3267 Take profit: 1.3240

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7168, 0.7132, 0.7113, 0.7049, 0.7025, 0.6995 and 0.6977. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of January 31. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7049 - 0.7025 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6995 and the potential value for the bottom is 0.6977, upon reaching which we expect consolidated movement in the range of 0.6977 - 0.6995, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7113 - 0.7132 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.7168 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7113 Take profit: 0.7130

Buy: 0.7134 Take profit: 0.7166

Sell: 0.7047 Take profit: 0.7027

Sell: 0.7025 Take profit: 0.6995

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 125.98, 125.43, 125.11, 124.79, 124.33, 123.93, 123.61 and 123.22. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of February 4. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 124.30. In this case, the target is 123.93 and in the range of 123.93 - 123.61 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 123.22, from which the probability of a rollback to the correction is high.

The exit to correction is expected after the breakdown of 124.79. Here, the first target is 125.18. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 125.11 - 125.43 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form an upward structure on the scale of H1. Here, the first potential target is 125.43.

The main trend is the downward structure of February 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 124.80 Take profit: 125.10

Buy: 125.14 Take profit: 125.40

Sell: 124.30 Take profit: 124.00

Sell: 123.90 Take profit: 123.66

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 143.35, 142.86, 142.53, 141.84, 141.18, 140.38 and 139.80. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of February 4. We expect short-term downward movement in the range of 141.84 - 141.18. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 140.38. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 139.80, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 142.53 - 142.86 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 143.35 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the downward cycle of February 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 142.53 Take profit: 142.84

Buy: 142.88 Take profit: 143.35

Sell: 141.80 Take profit: 141.20

Sell: 141.15 Take profit: 140.45

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 8. The decline continues to figure 13

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Wave counting analysis:

On Thursday, February 7, trading ended with a decline by another 40 basis points. Thus, the main option continues to be worked out, involving the construction of a downward wave 3 with targets located near the minimum of wave 1 and below. Wave 3 in its internal wave structure still does not look complete. After reducing to a minimum of wave 1, it will be necessary to understand whether the tool is ready to further reduce and build the impulse part of the trend, or the segment originating on January 10 is transformed into a three-wave structure with its completion around 13 or slightly lower. The development of a further trading strategy will depend on this.

Sales targets:

1,1289 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1514 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a downward wave of 3. So now I still recommend selling the EUR / USD instrument with targets located near the levels of 1.1289 and 1.1215, which corresponds to 100.0% and 0.0% Fibonacci. There are no prerequisites for changing the working version and the need to complement the current wave marking.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP and Brexit: Juncker and May made another appointment this month. Bank of England is ready to continue raising interest

Yesterday's decision of the Bank of England led to a decrease in the pound, but then buyers returned to the market amid statements made following a meeting in Brussels by representatives of the UK and the EU.

Great Britain

As indicated in the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, in February, it was decided to maintain the key rate at the level of 0.75%. This decision was made at a ratio of votes of 9 to 0, that is, unanimously, which fully coincided with the expectations of economists.

Pressure on the pound was formed after the regulator revised its forecasts for economic growth rates. It is expected that UK GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2018 will be at the level of 0.3%, and in the 1st quarter of 2019, it will slow to 0.2%.

A total of 2019, the Bank of England predicts UK GDP growth to 1.2%, from 1.7%, which was previously expected. For 2020, the Bank of England lowered its forecast for UK GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.7%.

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The statement noted a sharper and more steady slowdown in global economic growth. One of the main reasons for the slowdown in the UK economy is the decline in global economic growth due to the tightening of central bank policies and trade tensions.

Despite all these factors, the English regulator still sees the need to raise the key interest rate in the coming years.

The British pound was supported by the UK and the EU. Following the meeting in Brussels, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker stated that he was open to adding language to the political declaration regarding the content of the terms of a future agreement. This suggests that the probability of extending the UK exit from the EU is very high. But one should not forget that the political declaration is only of an advisory nature, and it will not affect the vote in parliament.

May and Juncker will meet again this month.

The statements made by the Governor of the Bank of England during the press conference were mainly focused on the situation with Brexit. Mark Carney noted that the UK economy is not ready for Brexit without a transitional period, and Brexit without an agreement will only increase the risk of recession in the UK in the coming years.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD currency pair, the chart shows how buyers are trying to reverse the downward trend formed since the end of January of this year. Support is provided by the level of 1.2920, return under which can only increase pressure on the British pound. However, while trading is conducted over this range, one can count on a breakthrough of resistance at 1.2990, with access to fresh highs of 1.3050 and 1.3100.

USA

Yesterday's data on the US labor market remained unaddressed by traders. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits has decreased. So, for the week from January 27 to February 2, the number of applications fell by 19,000 and totaled 234,000. Economists had expected that the number of applications last week would be 225,000.

Fed spokesman Robert Kaplan once again spoke yesterday, who reiterated that the Fed should be patient about rates. Kaplan also noted that fiscal stimulus, which supported the American economy last year, no longer brings the desired result, and new and effective tools to stimulate growth are currently required.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, yesterday's profit taking was the first signal for the likely formation of an upward correction in the euro. However, to confirm this, buyers need to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1365, which will lead to a larger increase in risky assets in the area of highs of 1.1400 and 1.1435.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of the pair EUR / JPY for February 8

Large-scale graphics

The downward vector that set the entire last year to the movement of the cross price wave ended a month ago. In the wake of the global trend, it has become a correction.

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Medium scale graphics:

From January 3, the price began to form the basis for a new trend wave. Considering the large scale of the completed wave, the lateral flat that is flowing in recent weeks will continue until the wave level is equalized to the required level.

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Small-scale graphics:

The direction of intraday trends is set by the downward wave from February 2. In a larger wave structure, it forms the corrective part of wave (B).

Forecast and recommendations:

This week, the most likely continuation of the flat "side" in the price corridor between the nearest zones. At its lower boundary, it is recommended to track reversal signals to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 125.90 / 126.40

Support areas:

- 123.80 / 123.30

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com