BITCOIN Analysis for December 6, 2017

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the gains and currently is residing at the record breaking price above $12,600. The impulsive move was non-volatile and very quick after the break above $11,700. Judging the current impulsive behavior of the cryptocurrency, the price is expected to reach $14,000 by the 10th or 18th of December when the Bitcoin Future is going to be launched. As Bitcoin is being legalized by more countries, the sentiment is quite in favor of the bullish run which is currently unstoppable. As of the current scenario, Bitcoin has been a bit corrective but being supported by the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line which are expected to push the price much higher with much deeper retracement along the way. As the price remains above $11,500 price area and dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line, the impulsive bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 06, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair remains under pressure while being capped by the descending 20-period moving average. The relative strength index is still badly directed below the neutrality level of 50, showing a lack of upward momentum needed for a rebound. Intraday bearishness persists, The immediate trend remains down and the momentum is strong.

Hence, below 112.90, look for a further decline to 111.95 and 111.70 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 112.90 with a target of 113.25.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 112.90, Take Profit: 111.95

Resistance levels: 113.25, 113.65 and 114.00 Support Levels: 111.95, 111.70, 111.35

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 06, 2017

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The first target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair is holding firmly above its support base around 0.9835, and is likely to post a new rebound.

The intraday bullish trend line maintains the strong buying pressure on the prices. Besides, the relative strength index remains above its neutrality area at 50.

To conclude, as long as 0.9835 holds on the downside, the pair is likely to advance to 0.9940 and 0.9970 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9835, Take Profit: 0.9940

Resistance levels: 0.9940, 0.9970, and 1.0015

Support levels: 0.9815, 0.9785, and 0.9730

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 06, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair is in a downtrend, capped by its intraday falling trend line. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning down, and should confirm a negative outlook. Last but not least, the relative strength index is bearish below its neutrality area at 50.

In conclusion, as long as 151.30 is not surpassed, look for a new pullback to 149.30 and 148.60 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 151.30 with the target at 151.85

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 151.30, Take Profit: 149.30

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 151.85, 152.40, and 153

Support levels: 149.30, 148.60, and 148

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 06, 2017

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We will retain our yesterday's targets. The pair has clearly reversed upward and is now supported by its rising 20-period moving average.

The relative strength index is heading upward, and is showing strong bullish momentum. Besides, a support base at 0.6865 has formed, and should limit any downside room.

To sum up, as long as 0.6865 is not broken, look for a further advance to 0.6930 and 0.6945 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6930, 0.6945, and 0.6985

Support levels: 0.6840, 0.6815, and 0.6770

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Bitcoin analysis for December 06, 2017

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $12,801. The price of bitcoin has pushed above the $12,750 zone on December 5, 2017, at approximately 12 PM CET, reaching yet another all-time high this year. The decentralized currency has seen an increase in value well over 900 percent in 2017 and hasn't slowed down yet. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found a successful test of the upward trendline, which is a sign tthat selling looks risky. I also found a cross on stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upawrd targets. I got FE 61.8% at the price of $13,000 and FE 100% at the price of $13,498.

Support/Resistance

$12.801 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$13.000 – Fibonacci expansion 61.8%

$13.461 – Fibonacci expansion 100%

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Global macro overview for 06/12/2017

Moods in the European services sector are still quite satisfying. At least, this is the result of the newly revised PMI indicators for the leading economies of the Old Continent, which gives optimism before the GDP dynamics estimates for the last three months of the year. The Spanish, Italian and French PMI Services and PMI Composite data were all better than expected and German data were only slightly worse than anticipated. Overall, the PMI Services in the Eurozone remained unchanged at the level of 56.2 and PMI Composite reminded at the level of 57.5 points.

The Eurozone's economy is still performing very well. Regarding the two largest Eurozone's economies, faster growth was recorded in both France and Germany. Elsewhere in the region, economic momentum slightly lost steam. Nevertheless, according to the European Commission, the Eurozone Economic Sentiment rocketed to the highest level since October 2000.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market fell out of a triangle and currently, the price is testing the technical support at the level of 1.1807 for the second time. If this support is violated, then the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1725. The momentum indicator is below its fifty level, but the market is starting to become more oversold at the current levels.

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Global macro overview for 06/12/2017

The press speculates that the European Union expects that by Wednesday (ie still today) London will present revised proposals regarding Brexit conditions - the delay may cause that the decision on the transition to the next stage of talks will not be taken during the December 14-15 summit. The point of dispute is the issue of the border with Ireland - meanwhile, the leader of the Northern Irish Unionists (DUP), which the group supports in the parliament, Prime Minister May's government said that this matter was not consulted with him and thus his party will not support this project in the parliament. Meanwhile, The Telegraph speculates about a possible revolt in government Prime Minister May inspired by the supporters of "hard Brexit", or Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.

The failure to sign a deal with Brussels for "sufficient progress" in the Brexit negotiations earlier this week has left Theresa May in a deep, multidimensional political bind. There is still no clear solution for the impasse, so the British Pound reaction is understandable: the currency is weakening across the board as it awaits any positive Brexit news.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has managed to hit the lower green channel line around the level of 1.3368, but there is still a room for another leg down towards the level of 1.3300, where the main channel support is. The top for the potential wave 2 is still seen at the level of 1.3550.

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Analysis of Gold for December 06, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,265.45. According to the 15M time – frame, I found testing of Fibonacci retracement 38.2%, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. I also found oversold conditions on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,274.90 and at the price of $1,283.90.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,274.90

R2: $1,283.90

R3: $1,290.95

Support levels:

S1: $1,258.86

S2: $1.251.91

S3: $1,242.80

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for December 06, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3359. According to the 30M time – frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.3370, which is sign that selling looks risky. I also found successful rejection from lower diagonal of downward channel and hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportuntiies. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3431 (pivot) and at the price of 1.3490 (pivot resistance 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3490

R2: 1.3543

R3: 1.3604

Support levels:

S1: 1.3381

S2: 1.3320

S3: 1.3270

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for December 06, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD short-term story remains intact for now. The pair has found intraday support at fibonacci 0.382 levels as seen here, price being 1.1800. A slight probable change in the wave structure has been shown here as wave x, which could be a counter trend towards 1.1900 levels before turning lower again. As an alternate though, the entire drop from 1.1960 through 1.1800 levels could be considered as a flat as well, and in that case, a rally should unfold from here. In either case, a potential push higher, at least towards 1.1900, could be seen from current levels before the pair turns bearish again. A continued drop below 1.1800 levels should keep the interim bearish structure intact hence a safe way to trade for now would be to remain short or look to sell on rallies. Please note 1.1700 levels are still possible either from current levels or from 1.1900.

Trading plan:

Conservative strategy would be to remain short and also look to sell higher again around 1.1900 with risk above 1.1960. An aggressive way to trade would be to go long now, risk below 1.1790, target 1.1880/1.1900.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index short-term outlook remains intact with bulls poised to push higher through 94.10 levels from here. There could be a slight pullback ahead of 92.60 levels, but the bullish outlook remains unchanged till prices remain broadly above 92.50 levels going forward. Please note that we are just looking for a counter-trend rally towards 94.10 levels which also coincides with Fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the drop between 95.10 through 92.60 levels respectively. But if prices do break above 94.10 levels, it could easily reach 95.00 and higher levels in the coming days.A simple and safe trading strategy from here would be to go long on dips till prices stay above 92.50 levels. A break below 92.50 levels could change the short term wave structure.

Trading plan:

Remain long for now and also look to buy on dips, stop below 92.50, the target is 94.20.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for Bank of Canada rate decision at 1000 AM EST.

Good luck!

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 6, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback was expected towards 0.7050.

On the other hand, an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is being established on the chart indicating bullish reversal.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 can be considered for a short-term BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 0.6770. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 6, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

Trade Recommendations

The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if the current signs of bearish rejection are maintained.

S/L should be placed above 1.1970. T/P levels to be located at 1.1850, 1.1700 and 1.1590.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 6, 2017

EUR/USD: A "sell" signal has subtly been generated on the EUR/USD pair; owing to the perpetual bearish movement that has been witnessed since the beginning of this week. The EMA 11 has almost crossed the EMA 56 to the downside and the Williams' % Range period 20 is around the oversold region. The "sell" signal would become more conspicuous as price journeys further south.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has just generated a short-term bullish signal, which would eventually lead to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, once the supply level at 0.9900 is breached to the upside. When the target is achieved, price could reach another supply level at 0.99950.

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GBP/USD: The situation here remains unchanged. The Cable has fluctuated southwards since the beginning of this week, and that is about to create a threat to the recent bullish effort in the market. A movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3300 would render the bullish effort invalid, while a movement to the upside (from here), would strengthen it.

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USD/JPY: Since the beginning of this week, after the supply level at 113.00 has been tested, the USD/JPY price has begun to consolidate. Since the bearish outlook on the market is still valid, it is expected that price would continue going downwards, towards the demand levels at 112.50, 112.00 and 111.50 (when volatility returns to the market).

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EUR/JPY: Since the start of this week, the bearish correction in a context of an uptrend has been going on (on this cross). The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour is now under threat, and should price drop by only 100 pips from here. The signal in the market would turn bearish. The demand zone at 132.00 is a major deciding factor.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for December 6, 2017

The Dollar index is moving higher as expected. Price briefly broke above cloud resistance yesterday but moved back inside the cloud. Today I expect the Dollar index to confirm the short-term bullish trend by breaking above 93.50.

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Black lines - bearish channel (broken)

The Dollar index is inside the 4-hour Kumo (cloud). Trend is neutral but price is about to break above the cloud and change to bullish. Price has made an important reversal from our 92.50 target area. We are Dollar bullish looking for a test of November- October highs.

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On a weekly basis, the Dollar index is bouncing off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Important resistance is found at 93.90 and next at 94.40. Breaking above these two resistance levels will confirm my view for a move towards the weekly Kumo at 96-97 area. Support is at last week's low. Bulls must hold above that level.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for December 6, 2017

Gold price is bouncing back towards previous support of $1,270. Gold price is in a bearish trend. I expect Gold to get rejected at resistance and move lower towards $1,250.

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Black rectangle - resistance

Gold price is trading below the 4-hour Kumo. Trend is bearish. Resistance levels are at $1,269-$1,272-$1,280. I expect Gold price to move towards $1,270-74 maximum and then get rejected for another move lower towards $1,250.

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On a weekly basis, Gold price remains below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Gold price is expected to move lower towards the weekly Kumo which is the long-term support level. As long as price is below the weekly kijun-sen at $1,280 we remain bearish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 06/12/2017

There are rumors that the Tokyo Financial Exchange has taken the first steps towards launching Bitcoin-related products. According to Bloomberg News, this stock market has created a group in which it will try to start quoting cryptocurrency contracts. As the information service explained, this would be the first step towards changes in Japanese law that would clear the way for these types of products. This information comes from a press conference organized by President Shozo Ohta, which was held on December 1st. On it, Otha announced that the stock market will seek for quick approval by regulatory authorities:"As soon as the law on financial instruments and the stock exchange recognizes cryptocurrencies as financial products, we will make futures contracts available. To achieve this, we will launch a working group that will examine the various aspects of Bitcoin, including its current state, further perspective and form will take root in Japanese society."

The fact that the stock market could move towards the release of Bitcoin futures contracts is not surprising, given the efforts of companies such as CME Group and CBOE to create such products in the US. CBOE futures trading is scheduled to begin on Sunday, and CMEs start about a week later.

Let's take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made another all-time high at the level of $12, 390 ( at the time of writing), so the weekly pivot resistance was set to a target level. Currently, the price is still rallying higher and the irregular flat idea for a corrective wave is getting out of hand. The next best fit is the ending diagonal wave five as a termination pattern, market in golden lines. Please notice the bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator.

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Trading plan for 06/12/2017

The markets during the Asian session were sideways in anticipation of more interesting events of the next days. AUD is weaker after GDP data, which is beneficial for NZD. USD is in the middle of the congestion zone. Indexes lose under the pressure of falling metal prices. In China, stock indices are also under pressure - Shanghai Composite is losing 0.5% and Hang Seng is down 1.3%. Yesterday's copper price drop by almost 5.0% is blamed for the drop.

On Wednesday 6th of December, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the market participants will keep an eye on German Factory Orders data, Consumer Price Index data from Switzerland, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data from the US and Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement.

USD/CAD analysis for 06/12/2017:

Economists expect the Bank of Canada to stop this year on two interest rate increases. Although key data from the economy remain robust, the lack of signs of inflation acceleration suggests a cautious tone with regard to changes in monetary policy. Recently, President Poloz claimed that he needs time to assess the impact of the current increases on the economy and repeating this in the December statement may sound too neutral for the hawkish-oriented market. The rate decision is scheduled for 03:00 pm GMT and it should remain unchanged at the level of 1.0%.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price broke through the technical support at the level of 1.2662, hit the 61% Fibo retracement at the level of 1.2618 and bounced back towards the congestion zone. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2731, but it can be easily violated if the BoC will not hike the rates as expected. The oversold market conditions support the temporary bullish outlook.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY testing the trend line support

The price of USD/JPY dropped slightly again overnight to test the black trendline support around the level of 112.00 as a result of developing bearish divergence. In a case of a further drop, the next technical support is seen at the level of 111.41.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil consolidates the gains

The price of Crude Oil is consolidating the recent gains ahead of US Inventories data ( scheduled for 03:30 pm GMT today). The market remains in a sideways zone between the levels of 56.78 - 59.04. A lack of upside and downside momentum supports this view.

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The dollar goes on the offensive

Despite the weak macroeconomic indicators published this week, the US dollar intends to regain its status as a favorite before the FOMC meeting on December 12-13.

The deficit in the US trade balance rose to $ 48.7 billion in October due to a record increase in imports, exceeding the forecasts of experts. The negative result, however, did not lead to the sale of the dollar, as the market quickly found an explanation: the growth of imports indicates a high consumer activity which intensified in the pre-holiday sales period.

A little more worrisome is the slowdown in business activity in the services sector. The ISM report showed that the index fell in November to 57.4p, which is noticeably below the data of a month earlier at 60.1p and worse than analysts' forecasts who expected it to experience an insignificant slowdown to 59p. However, in this case, the market reacted calmly as some correction after two months of active growth is quite understandable.

Obviously, players prefer to concentrate on the main factors that matter before the upcoming FOMC meeting which will take place next week. These include GDP growth, inflation, and the labor market situation.

The growth of the economy intensified after two rather weak quarters. According to the forecasts of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, a GDP growth of 3.2% in the 4th quarter is expected. Danske Bank is waiting for 3% with a total of 2.2% in 2017 and - 2.4% in 2018, since private consumption is not the main factor of economic growth now. A steady increase in investment after the recession caused by a decline in oil prices plays an important role in all of this.

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The level of expectations from reforms is still high. The survey data from the NFIB and the Conference board show that, despite the lack of real progress in reducing the tax burden, optimism has been at its highest level in the last decade. Trump actually intends to follow the path of Ronald Reagan who achieved revival in the economy by reducing taxes, which incidentally, led to a sharp increase in the budget deficit. The Budget Committee of the US Congress assumes that the national debt will grow to 99% of the GDP over the next 10 years but this does not seem to bother anyone seriously.

On Friday, a report on the labor market will be published. Experts' forecasts can be called confidently optimistic. It is expected that in November, 198,000 new jobs were created. This is very strong at the current level of unemployment. Also, the average hourly wage is expected to increase by 0.2% to 2.6% which is more important in conditions of weak inflation. If the published data are no worse than forecasts, the dollar will get a strong driver for growth as it will strengthen the position of the hawks of the Fed.

According to the CME futures market, optimism on the rate among investors is growing. The probability that at the meeting on December 13 the Fed will raise the rate is above 90% at the moment. Moreover, the forecast for March became even more pronounced with more than 50% of the probability in favor of another increase.

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This result perfectly reflects the real mood of investors. They expect that the growth of the US economy will allow us to pursue a policy of normalization at a faster rate than the ECB or the Bank of England, which will lead to an increase in the yield spread in favor of US assets.

In other words, investors are confident that the dollar has more than enough reasons for outstripping growth. The continuation of the current policy of the Fed after the resignation of Janet Yellen in February 2018 no longer causes fears. The tax plan surprisingly easily passed through the Congress and only the president can prevent the dollar from returning to Olympus.

The EURUSD pair may drop to 1.1670 in the short term. In the longer term it may make an attempt to update the November low at 1.1550. Against the yen, the dollar's position is not so convincing, as tightening financial conditions may cause an increase in interest in defensive assets. Most likely, trade will continue in the lateral range.

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Breaking Forecast 06/12/2017

Breaking Forecast 06/12/2017

EURUSD: Trade for the breakthrough of the range boundaries.

The latest news on the US economy came out strong. The markets particularly liked Trump's law on reducing taxes on business.

In the Forex market, this led to a slight strengthening of the dollar - during daytime, the euro reached the level of 1.1807 downwards, but rebounded upwards and traded above, around 1.1835

Trade for the breakthrough of the range boundaries:

Sell for a breakthrough of 1.1799 downwards - with a target of 1.1610.

Alternative - buy for breakthrough at 1.1880 upwards - with the target of 1.2080.

Stop-loss of 45 points in 4 characters (example - from 1.1700 to 1.1800 - 100 points).

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 06, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair sets new record high of 0.9882 in overnight trading. The price is still trading around the zone of 0.9860. The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9818 (major suppor today). Since the price is above this level, the market is still in an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend is still strong above the moving average (100). The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.9818 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.9882. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.9882, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.9910 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, if the USD/CHF pair succeeds to break through the support level of 0.9818 today, the market will decline further to 0.9778 in order to retest the double bottom on the H1 chart. Also, it should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.9946. Moreover, RSI is extremely overbought.
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Brent: OPEC did its job, OPEC can leave

It is done! OPEC and Russia gave the market what they expected, having prolonged the agreement on the reduction of production until the end of 2018. Riyadh believes that this will allow it to withdraw the size of global reserves to the level of 5-year averages in the second or third quarters of next year and will accordingly balance market. It is unlikely that there will be a significant decline in the indicator in the next six months against the backdrop of a seasonal fall in demand for petroleum products. On the contrary, the heightened risks of growth in shale production and fixing profits on long positions increase the likelihood of correction in Brent and WTI.

OPEC has done its job and the cartel can go. The attention of investors is now focused on American manufacturers. The rise in prices above $ 60 per barrel can easily increase production to 10 million bpd or higher. The indicator is already close to the maximum mark of 9.63 million bpd, which took place in 2015. At the same time, the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes returned to a 2.5-year peak.

The dynamics of WTI and oil production in the US

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Source: Bloomberg.

In conditions in wherein black gold is unlikely to see new growth drivers in the coming weeks while factors of increasing US inventories and production intensify the risks of retracement, many hedge funds and other speculators will have a desire to fix profits. As a result, the gradual unloading of net long routes for Brent, which reached the second largest maximum mark for the whole history of accounting by the end of the week, is capable of launching an avalanche of correction. The situation is exacerbated by the feeling of deja vu. A year ago, the extension of the Vienna agreement triggered a drop in prices due to the implementation of the "Buy on the rumor, sell on facts" principle. However, is it worth it for the "bulls" of Brent and WTI to lose heart?

Goldman Sachs believes that it's not. The bank raised the forecast of the average value of the North Sea grade in 2018 from $ 58 to $ 62 per barrel and of Texas from $ 55 to $ 57 per barrel. In their opinion, shale producers will not force events and improving global demand will allow oil to feel confident.

Indeed, is it worth it to expect a deep correction following the pattern of late 2016 up to early 2017? All three key drivers of price increases in June-November of this year are still in the game. The state of health of the global economy continues to improve as can be clearly seen from the indexes of business activity in the leading countries of the world. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East at any time can make itself felt while OPEC and Russia are not abandoning their plans to balance the market. At the same time, the US dollar is not in a hurry to win back the positive factor for the passage of the tax reform project through the US Congress. In such conditions, the correction potential looks limited and consolidation risks increase.

Technically, quotes falling below the support level at $ 60.75 per barrel will activate the reversal pattern 1-2-3 and will increase the risks of a pullback in the direction of $ 59.5 and $ 58.3. To restore the uptrend, "bulls" should be stormed by resistance at the level of $ 64 per barrel.

Brent, daily chart

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for December 6, 2017

AUD/USD has been quite corrective recently after a strong bearish pressure pushing the price off the 0.8150 price area. AUD had been quite mixed with the economic reports where negatives are more in quantity than positive reports for which the currency is currently struggling to gain over USD despite the current weak status of USD. Recently AUD Current Account report was published with negative figure of -9.1B from the previous figure of -9.7B though it is less than the previous figure but could not meet the expectation of much less deficit at -8.8B, Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.3% and in the Rate Statement the Cash Rate of Australia was unchanged as expected at 1.50% which did not quite helped with the gains of AUD but was able to stop the impulsive bearish pressure in the pair. Today, AUD GDP report was published with a worse value of 0.6% decrease from the previous value of 0.9% which was expected to be at 0.7%. The worse economic report did affect the currency quite well which lead to impulsive bearish pressure today. On the USD side today, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 189k from the previous figure of 235k, Revised Non-Farm Productivity is expected to increase to 3.3% from the previous value of 3.0%, Revised Unit Labor Cost is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit at -3.2M from the previous figure of -3.4M. The forecasts are quite mixed in nature where any better than expected economic report is expected to add to the gains of USD against AUD in the coming days. To sum up, AUD has been quite weak in comparison as it could not dominate USD in its weakest period which is expected to lead to further USD gains in the coming days if USD publishes better economic report results in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA and it has worked very well as a resistance to keep the price lower. As the price is currently quite near to the support area of 0.7500-50 the bears are expected to push the price towards the support level in the coming days and any bounce or breaks off the area will lead to further directional movement in this pair. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.7650 price area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 06, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 10-y Bond Auction, Retail PMI, and German Factory Orders m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a ... volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1889.

Strong Resistance:1.1881.

Original Resistance: 1.1868.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1855.

Target Inner Area: 1.1824.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1793.

Original Support: 1.1780.

Strong Support: 1.1768.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1760.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 06, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories, Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.01.

Resistance. 2: 113.78.

Resistance. 1: 112.57.

Support. 1: 112.29.

Support. 2: 112.07.

Support. 3: 111.85.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for December 6, 2017

USD/CAD has been quite bearish recently after bouncing off the 1.2850 resistance area. CAD gained the impulsive momentum against USD due to recently published better than expected Employment Change, GDP, decrease in Unemployment Rate and Trade Balance deficit while USD is struggling with the lower inflation and indecision of further Interest Rate Hike in the future. Today is going to be a very important day for CAD as some high impact economic reports are going to be published including BOC Rate Statement where the Overnight Rate report will be published which is expected to be unchanged at 1.00% and Labor Productivity report is expected to show greater deficit at -0.4% from the previous value of -0.1%. Though there are no certain chances of a rate hike in Canada this month any hawkish outcome from the BOC Rate Statement is expected to provide the required push to CAD to gain further momentum against USD in the coming days. On the other hand, USD is quite weak ahead of the upcoming NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Cash Earning and Rate Hike decision in this month. Though USD has gained quite well against CAD for a few months, any negative outcome of the upcoming economic reports may lead to losing all the gains against CAD accumulated in last few months. On the USD side, today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 189k from the previous figure of 235k, Revised Non-Farm Productivity is expected to increase to 3.3% from the previous value of 3.0%, Revised Unit Labor Cost is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit at -3.2M from the previous figure of -3.4M. The economic reports are forecasted to be quite mixed with the results today but an increase in the number of positive economic reports may lead to further gain on the USD side leading to clear out the recent gains of CAD. As of the current scenario, the pair is expected to be quite volatile in nature due to the results of high impact economic reports to be published this week, whereas CAD is expected to be quite strong in comparison to USD, which may lead to further gains on the CAD side in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below the resistance of 200 EMA and resistance area of 1.2760 to 1.2850 which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure in the coming days as the price remains below. There had been a Bearish Regular Divergence in the pair which was in effect when the price bounced off the 1.2850 area and proceeded on the bearish side impulsively. The price is currently expected to reach the support area of 1.2430-50 and later towards 1.2100 in the coming days.

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 06, 2017

USDX hovers around the 200 SMA without a clear direction across the board, but it remains on the bearish side, as the price action is consolidating below the moving average. The next support lies at 92.70, and if that level gives up we can expect further declines towards the support zone of 91.85 in the short-term. MACD indicator still is moving in the positive territory, favoring to the bulls.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.60 / 93.98

H1 chart's support levels: 92.70 / 91.85

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.70, take profit is at 91.85 and stop loss is at 93.53.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 06, 2017

GBP/USD erased some of yesterday's gains and it's now being supported by the 200 SMA at H1 chart. Such moving average could provide dynamic support across the board and if it manages to rebound around that area, we can expect an advance towards the resistance level of 1.3541, at which a breakout should expose the 1.3612 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3541 / 1.3612

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3437 / 1.3303

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3541, take profit is at 1.3612 and stop loss is at 1.3466.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for December 5, 2017

EUR/JPY has been quite bearish recently after bouncing off the resistance area of 134.40. EUR has been quite mixed with the economic reports today which lead the currency to lose some grounds against JPY. Today EUR Spanish Services PMI report was published with decreased figure of 54.4 from the previous figure of 54.6 which was expected to be at 55.2, Italian Services PMI report was published with an increase to 54.7 from the previous figure of 52.1 which was expected to be at 53.4, French Final Services PMI report has also shown increase to 60.4 which was expected to be unchanged at 60.2, German Final Services PMI report was published with decrease to 54.3 which was expected to be unchanged at 54.9 and Final Services PMI report was published as expected at 56.2. Additionally, EUR Retail Sales report was published with greater deficit at -1.1% from the previous value of 0.8% which was expected to be at -0.6% and ECOFIN Meeting did not have much impact on the market having a neutral view about the upcoming economic developments in the Eurozone. On the JPY side, today BOJ Core CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.5%, which did not quite help the currency to gain good momentum in the early stage of the day but due to worse economic reports of EUR published afterward, the JPY gained momentum. The bearish pressure does indicate the weakness of EUR against JPY which is expected to help in the further momentum of JPY in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is residing inside the range between 131.40 to 134.40 area for a couple of days by now. The resistance area of 134.40 has been quite successful several times for pushing the price lower towards the support area of 131.40. As the price remains below 134.40 with a daily close it is expected that the price will again head towards 131.40 support area in the coming days.

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BITCOIN Analysis for December 5, 2017

Bitcoin has been quite corrective with the gains recently which lead the price to reside above $11,500 price area. As of the upcoming launch of Bitcoin future trading by CME and CBOE on 10th and 18th December, the market sentiment is very positive for the Bitcoin gains which is expected to push the price higher impulsively in the coming days. The market is currently quite corrective in nature, but the certain impulsive behavior is expected to be observed on 10th and 18th December which might extend our target to push towards $12,500 by the end of December. As of the current scenario, Bitcoin is being carried by the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line since it bounced off the $9000 support area after the recent bearish pressure. The Chikou Span is showing some bearish momentum to be observed for short-term but as the price remains above 11,000 price area and Kumo Cloud the bullish bias is expected to continue further with the target towards $12,500 in the coming days.

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BITCOIN Analysis for December 5, 2017

Bitcoin has been quite corrective with the gains recently which lead the price to reside above $11,500 price area. As of the upcoming launch of Bitcoin future trading by CME and CBOE on 10th and 18th December, the market sentiment is very positive for the Bitcoin gains which is expected to push the price higher impulsively in the coming days. The market is currently quite corrective in nature, but the certain impulsive behavior is expected to be observed on 10th and 18th December which might extend our target to push towards $12,500 by the end of December. As of the current scenario, Bitcoin is being carried by the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line since it bounced off the $9000 support area after the recent bearish pressure. The Chikou Span is showing some bearish momentum to be observed for short-term but as the price remains above 11,000 price area and Kumo Cloud the bullish bias is expected to continue further with the target towards $12,500 in the coming days.

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