US crude oil to collapse again.

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Tuesday brought US crude oil another day of volatile trading. Concerns about insufficient storage capacity persist, and masses reckon that US oil quotes would fall below zero again.

Extreme price fluctuations from $ 10 to $ 14 per barrel during recent sessions have shocked the global oil markets.

According to Westpac strategist Robert Rennie, the storage capacity of the oil industry, including floating storage, is nearing the limit, so prices are pressured even more.

Traders say that production cut is the sole solution, but most oil companies are hesitating to do so.

"Very little supply has been cut," Martijn Rats, strategist at Morgan Stanley, said. "This is a negligible amount," he added. On Tuesday, S&P GSCI said that "unscheduled" pull outs from the WTI June contract will occur before prices become negative.

"Nobody wants a repeat of what happened with the May contract," said Warren Patterson, head of ING Commodities strategy in Singapore. "The current movement suggests that the June contract will become increasingly illiquid, and will probably suffer from increased volatility in anticipation of the validity period."

Brent quotes for June delivery also declined on Tuesday, reaching a low of $ 18.73 per barrel, but recovered to $ 20.46, 2.4% higher, before the end of the trading session.

Other energy markets also suffered: LNG cargo prices plummeted to the lowest level in history, trading at less than $ 1.90 per million British thermal units, which is 60% less since the beginning of this year.

Tragedy on an oil tanker in Syria, which killed at least 10 people, further justified the volatility of oil prices on Tuesday.

Analysts claim that oil quotes will remain unstable until countries achieve larger reductions.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for April 29, 2020

The pair traded on the upper part of the trading range on Tuesday but could not break through 1.2494 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a red dotted line). After this, the market slightly rolled down. Today, a continuation with the upward movement is expected. Economic calendar news for the dollar is expected at 12:30, 14:00, 14:30, 18:00, and 18:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the pair may continue to move upward from the level of 1.2426 (closing of yesterday's candle) with the first target at the upper fractal 1.2518. If this level is broken upwards, the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.2552 - a 76.4% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line). In case of testing this level, a downward pullback is possible, while maintaining an upward trend. The main news of the day comes out at 18:00 UTC which is about the US interest rates. The possibility of an upward trend is higher.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move up with the target of 1.2552 - a 76.4% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is a bearish trend from the level of 1.2494 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line) with a target of 1.2357 - a 23.6% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). If this level is broken downwards, the price may continue to move downward with the target at the lower fractal 1.2247 (presented in a red dashed line).

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Hot forecast and trading recommendation for EUR/USD on April 29, 2020

The market is less and less responsive to reports regarding the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. This is a good thing since it can be aligned with the passage of the peak of the epidemic. Restrictive measures aimed at containing the spread of coronavirus are already beginning to be lifted in many countries around the world. Other countries have announced starting dates for this process. And so, the market is beginning to pay more and more attention to macroeconomic statistics. Therefore, it is not surprising that the single European currency behaved strictly in the logic of published statistics.

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More precisely, it was incredibly calm and quiet when the European session opened, since no significant macroeconomic data were published in Europe. But the single European currency began to slowly strengthen its positions right before the US session, this is in anticipation of the publication of data on wholesale inventories in the United States. Forecasts said that stocks were supposed to grow by 1.0% in March. However, as soon as the data was published, the dollar quickly won back all the losses. Unexpectedly, wholesale inventories declined 1.0%. Although it looks strange. Nevertheless, it is quite possible that when building forecasts they did not take into account the excessive demand for goods, right at the very beginning of the introduction of the restricted quarantine regime. Retail sales have dramatically fallen. So, frankly, the data is in doubt. Nevertheless, this was enough for the dollar to remain stable in the end.

Wholesale inventories (United States):

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At first glance, the most important event for today is the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. But in fact, the market will likely neglect this event. No one doubts that no decisions will be made. They have been accepted for a long time. In addition, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to announce any further incentive measures. Most likely, the regulator so far proceeds from the fact that an emergency reduction in the refinancing rate, which has passed in two stages, is a sufficient measure, and, given the situation with the coronavirus epidemic, it is too early to say that any other measures are needed. But the first estimate of United States GDP for the first quarter is of much greater interest. Moreover, they can show a recession of 4.6%. And this is only for the first quarter. Although restrictive measures in the United States were introduced only in mid-March. That is, at the very end of the quarter. These data can show the scale of the economic recession, as everyone understands that in the second quarter the recession will continue and will be much stronger. The dollar will surely be under pressure since the market is gradually returning to normal and is paying more and more attention to macroeconomic statistics.

GDP growth rate (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see the trading forces concentrated within the range of 1.0815/1.0885, that is, repeating a fluctuating pattern in the period of April 16-22. At the same time, market activity is moderate, adhering to the area of daily average volatility.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, the daily period, a correctional course is visible from the value of 1.0727, which is still included in the structure of a deeper downward movement.

It can be assumed that trading forces will continue to be concentrated within the range of 1.0815/1.0885, where the work will be built both by the method of breaking the established boundaries, and within the range.

We specify all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider purchase positions higher than 1.0860, towards 1.0885. Deals on a breakout of the range are considered after consolidating the price higher than 1.0900.

- We consider selling positions lower than 1.0840, towards 1.0815. Deals on a breakout of the range are considered after the price is consolidated below 1.0810.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see an upward interest in hour and minute periods due to the existing correctional course. Daytime periods have a variable signal due to another stagnation.

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Markets are tired of negativity and are waiting for confirmation of signals about pandemic's slowdown; Overview of CAD and

Stock markets in Asia traded neutrally on Wednesday morning, waiting for new benchmarks from the Fed and the ECB, which are preparing to hold regular meetings. The general trend is in favor of a gradual exit from the shock provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic, oil is trying to form a base after another wave of decline, and markets are forming the opinion that the worst is over.

If this point of view is strengthened, then a basis will be formed for the resumption of growth after clarifying the estimates of the decline in national economies. This base will be very low due to an extremely strong fall, however, it must be assumed that a low base will provide an excellent opportunity to continue investment in risky assets.

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Today, a preliminary estimate of US GDP in the 1st quarter will be published in addition to the Fed meeting. At the end of the day, the growth of the dollar is unlikely, the main impulse will be the press conference by Fed Chairman J. Powell, at which he is expected to try to convince the markets again regarding the Fed's strength and full control over the situation.

USD/CAD

According to CFTC, the cumulative short position of the Canadian dollar has slightly changed and remains quite deep in negative territory. The estimated fair price is still significantly higher than the spot price, and there is no tendency to decrease it.

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This may mean that the current pullback of the loonie from the maximum last March 19 is a reaction to a general decline in panic moods, and not to fundamental justification, since even a drop in oil prices did not have a noticeable effect on the rate of USD/CAD pair.

In general, we must proceed from the fact that the decline in oil prices caused by a sharp decline in demand will not play a decisive role in the prospects of the Canadian dollar. The decline in oil prices usually led to an increase in the US stock market before the crisis of 2008, that is, an overall strengthening of the dollar. But after the crisis, a reverse reaction is observed, and now a decline in oil prices leads to a decrease in the stock market. The prolonged shock from falling oil prices causes the depreciation of the US dollar against a wide range of currencies, but the yield on bond futures is now slightly changing. This means that oil prices are less and less affecting commodity currencies, which we can see from the paradoxical stability of the Australian dollar at current extremely low oil prices.

The current strengthening of the Canadian currency is largely due to plans to open the Canadian economy and reduce the threat from coronavirus. The short-term situation remains bearish, support at 1.3854 has become key, and testing it seems almost inevitable. Breaking through it will open the direction to 1.3745, this is the next target, which will provide an opportunity to sell when support falls. If you pull back up to 1.40, selling can be considered with a short stop and a goal of 1.3854.

USD/JPY

The Bank of Japan continues to consistently implement an economic support program. At a meeting on Monday, a decision was made on the unlimited purchase of government bonds, that is, now BoJ, following the example of the Fed, will not bind itself to any framework, but will act exclusively from the current situation. It was also decided to increase the volume of purchases of corporate bonds and commercial securities to 20 trillion yen. the rates, as expected, remained unchanged, since their further reduction may lead to an unpredictable market reaction, and the effect will be questionable.

As a result, USD/JPY finally rushed to where it was high time to go - down. The estimated fair price of the yen is significantly higher than the current one; speculators increased the total long position again, that is, they are waiting for the yen to strengthen.

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Technically, the yen looks stronger than the dollar; therefore, the fall of USD/JPY may increase. Support at 106.80 could not resist, the nearest goal is 105.20 / 25, where the level of 61.8% of the March growth passes as well as the middle of the downward channel passes. A pullback may be short-term and will most likely be used for new sales, the deeper goal is located at 103.73.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for April 29, 2020

The pair moved upward on Tuesday and tested the level of 1.0892 - a 50% pullback level (presented in a blue dotted line), then the market went down by 68 points. Today, the upward movement may continue. Economic calendar news for the dollar is expected at 12:30, 14:00, 14:30, 18:00, and 18:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the upward trend may continue from the level of 1.0824 - a 76.4% pullback level (presented in a red dashed line) with the first target of 1.0861 - a 50.0% pullback level (presented in a blue dashed line). When this level is broken upwards, the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.0892 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). The main news of the day comes out at 18:00 UTC, which is about the US interest rates. Also, the possibility of an upward trend is higher.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.0892 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is a bearish trend from 1.0860 - a 50.0% pullback level (blue dashed line) with a target at the lower fractal 1.0728 (presented in a blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

FOMC meeting and interest rate decision

Signals for the EUR/USD pair:

If the price breaks through the level of 1.0855, the euro can rise to 1.0886 and 1.0913.

A breakthrough at 1.0819 is likely to lead to a sell-off of the euro to 1.0787 and 1.0755.

Signals for the GBP/USD pair:

The British pound is expected to grow to 1.2512 and 1.2573, if the price breaks through the level of 1.2480.

A breakthrough at 1.2454 is likely to lead to a sell-off of the British pound to 1.2348 and 1.2300.

Fundamental data:

The ADP employment report, the Fed's interest rate decision and Jerome Powell's press conference are expected today

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 29/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the key short-term resistance located at the level of 1.0878. So far the bulls were able to make a new local high at the level of 1.0849 and they are under the bearish pressure again. The price was rejected from the level of 1.0878 and a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the end of the move. The momentum is still strong and positive, but the market conditions are overbought, so the odds for another dynamic wave up are decreasing. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.0809.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1057

WR2 - 1.0976

WR1 - 1.0895

Weekly Pivot - 1.0809

WS1 - 1.0731

WS2 - 1.0641

WS3 - 1.0563

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 29/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broken through 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2493, but immediatley was rejected and the Pin Bar candle was made at the end of this move. The level of 1.2516 might be a key short-term level for both bulls and bears as any violation of this level will lead to another sub-wave up with a target at the levels of 1.2580. Nevertheless, in order to continue the larger time frame up trend, the bulls must violate the swing high located at 1.2645 otherwise the current move up will be considered as a counter-trend corrective wave that will not last for long.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2379

WR2 - 1.2609

WR1 - 1.2480

Weekly Pivot - 1.2357

WS1 - 1.2228

WS2 - 1.2104

WS3 - 1.1970

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 29/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Speaking at Virtual Blockchain Week, the famous venture capital investor Tim Draper confirmed that he is sticking to his six-digit Bitcoin price forecast.

In 2018, Tim Draper publicly announced that the Bitcoin price will reach $ 250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023. He cites a few main reasons that can lead to this type of price action. Draper believes the US government's massive stimulus package will lower the dollar and "send people to cryptography." He also expects Bitcoin to be adopted around the world at this time.

Draper says that a company called OpenNode (in which he invested $ 1.25 million) can help achieve this goal. OpenNode is building a Bitcoin payment gateway in the Lightning Network, known for extremely fast BTC transaction settlements. He believes that over time such services will prove their competitive advantage over conventional players - credit cards - and steal market share from them in the same way that MasterCard and Visa took market share from the then dominant American Express.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance located at the level of $7,706 and made a new local high at $7,817. The next target is seen at the level of $7,897, but there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator at current levels. If bears will push the prices lower, they can hit the next technical support located at the level of $7,385 and below.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,046

WR2 - $8,348

WR1 - $8,040

Weekly Pivot - $7,352

WS1 - $7,064

WS2 - $6,356

WS3 - $6,047

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 29/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The World Economic Forum has published a report analyzing how the implementation of Blockchain-based solutions can solve the problem of inefficiency and failure of the supply chain, which was revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Along with the report, the Forum released a set of tools for implementing Blockchain to help the government and enterprises adapt their supply chains to the current economic situation and "accelerate economic recovery after COVID-19".

The report, published on April 28, confirms that the resilience of private and public supply chains has been tested in the outbreak of coronavirus - citing the chains of pharmaceutical products, medical products and food among the sectors most affected. The report argues that the efficiency of supply chains depends on transparency, advocating the adoption of DLT technology to create "common truth" among supply chain stakeholders.

The World Economic Forum is a Swiss non-governmental organization that was founded in 1971 to engage business, academic and political leaders in key economic issues related to the development of the global economy.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD has bounced fromt he technical support located at the level of $188.86 and is currently heading back towards the recent swing high located at the level of $198.72. Nevertheless, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator that supports the short-term bearish outlook, so the level of $188.86 might not be the target level and the ETH/USD rate can drop even further towards the next target at $178.25. The key short-term technical resistance is still located at the level of $198.72 and only a clear breakout above this level will open the road towards the $209.09 target.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $243.80

WR2 - $220.39

WR1 - $211.16

Weekly Pivot - $187.55

WS1 - $172.98

WS2 - $155.34

WS3 - $144.09

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 29 - 2020

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Low volatility and range-trading is dominating the picture here. In the last 24 hours, EUR/GBP has been trading in a narrow range between 0.8688 - 0.8725, but this low volatility trading is likely a precursor for upside acceleration once minor resistance at 0.8734 and more importantly resistance at 0.8769 is broken. Ultimately, we are looking for a rally above 0.9499. When this corrective decline from 0.8867 is completed, the next impulsive rally takes hold.

Only an unexpected break below 0.8675 will change the 0.8621 corrective target.

R3: 0.8867

R2: 0.8769

R1: 0.8737

Pivot: 0.8724

S1: 0.8709

S2: 0.8675

S3: 0.8621

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8675 with our stop placed at 0.8670. An unexpected break might occur below 0.8670. We will re-buy EUR at 0.8630

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 29 - 2020

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The range-trading continues between 132.93 - 133.59. The low volatility is most likely a pre-courser for downside acceleration once this deadlock is resolved. We need to see a break below minor support at 132.36 and more importantly a break below support at 131.88 to confirm that the next impulsive wave of the decrease from 135.75 is in motion. Ultimately we are looking for a break below 123.99 to complete the long-term decline from 147.96 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally. For now, our focus should remain on the downside for a final drop below 123.99.

R3: 134.95

R2: 134.12

R1: 133.68

Pivot: 133.28

S1: 132.36

S2: 131.88

S3: 131.34

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 134.35 with our stop placed at 135.00. Upon a break below support at 131.88 we will lower our stop to 134.00

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 29. Attempts to buy the pound, but are also being sold quickly. Bulls need

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The pound's upward movement yesterday morning ended with it also being sold from the resistance level of 1.2512, from which I recommended to open short positions, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. A false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2512 caused the pound to rapidly fall under the support of 1.2454, which the bulls managed to win back in the Asian session today. At the moment, while trading is conducted above this level, we can expect the pound to strengthen further, but I advise you to open long positions only after forming a false breakout in this range. An equally important task for the bulls will be to break through and update this week's highs above the 1.2512 level, and the next goal will be the resistance of 1.2512, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD declines in the first half of the day under the support of 1.2454, bears can take the market under their control. In this case, it is best to count on long positions after forming a false breakout from the support of 1.2405, or buy the pound immediately on the rebound from the low of 1.2348.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers are active with each increase in the British pound, which is clearly visible on the chart, but in order to return the market under their control, they need to consolidate below the middle of the channel 1.2454, which will be the first signal to open short positions. An equally important task for the bears is a breakout and to consolidate below the level of 1.2405, which can happen today only after a weak report on US GDP, which will return the demand for safe haven assets, thereby causing the GBP/USD to fall to the area of lows of 1.2348 and 1.2300, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls are stronger in the first half of the day and attempt to update the highs, and this is necessary to maintain the upward trend, then short positions would be best once a false breakout is near the resistance of 1.2512, or sell the pound immediately on the rebound from 1.2573 while aiming for a correction of 30-40 points within the day. Today's Federal Reserve meeting is also important, set to take place this afternoon, as the Committee is expected to announce its decision on interest rates.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which implies that buyers have a slight advantage.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

If the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2405. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2512.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD intraday high and low for APR 29, 2020

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The intraday high and low from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) usually form on STDV 2-STDV 4 in the normal condition market but sometimes they can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6. Here are today's levels:

STDV 10 - 1.2870.

STDV 9 - 1.2829.

STDV 8 - 1.2788.

STDV 7 - 1.2747.

STDV 6 - 1.2706.

STDV 5 - 1.2665.

STDV 4 - 1.2624.

STDV 3 - 1.2583.

STDV 2 - 1.2542.

STDV 1 - 1.2501.

CBDR - 1.2460.

==================

CBDR - 1.2419.

STDV 1 - 1.2378.

STDV 2 - 1.2337.

STDV 3 - 1.2296.

STDV 4 - 1.2255.

STDV 5 - 1.2214.

STDV 6 - 1.2173.

STDV 7 - 1.2132.

STDV 8 - 1.2091.

STDV 9 - 1.2050.

STDV 10 - 1.2009.

Pay attention to the level between today's & yesterday range at 1.2296, 1.2583 & the previous day high 1.2517 with the previous day Low 1.2403. All these levels can be a potential turning point.

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 29. Market is nervous ahead of Fed meeting. Bulls need to return resistance

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Yesterday's bad data on a sharp drop in the US consumer sentiment index caused the dollar to strengthen against the euro, and the pair returned to the side channel ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. At the moment, the bulls are trying to regain the resistance of 1.0855, which will determine the pair's direction. If you manage to gain a foothold above this level in the first half of the day, you can expect a repeated upward correction to a high of 1.0886 and its breakout, with an exit to the resistance of 1.0913, where I recommend taking profit. However, it is not worth counting on a sharp growth without drastic changes in the Fed's policy. In case the euro falls in the first half of the day, the bulls will try to protect the level of 1.0819 and forming a false breakout on it is a signal to open long positions in the pair. Otherwise, I recommend buying EUR/USD only for a rebound from the low of 1.0787, or even lower - from the support of 1.0755 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The bears did a great job yesterday by returning to the market after forming a false breakout in the area of 1.0882, which led to a downward correction in the second half of the day. This is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. In my review, I recommended opening short positions from this level, which brought about 40 points of profit when going down to the nearest goal. At the moment, the sellers' task is to keep the resistance level of 1.0855 and form a false breakout on it, which will be a signal to open short positions while expecting a decline and a breakout of the support of 1.0819. Consolidating below this area, along with poor data on US GDP for the first quarter of this year, will quickly push the pair to the low of 1.0787, and then it will result in an update of the support of 1.0755, where I recommend taking profits. In case EUR/USD grows above the resistance of 1.0855 in the first half of the day, it is best to return to short positions after testing the high of 1.0886, or immediately to rebound from the resistance of 1.0913 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which implies that buyers have a slight advantage.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth may be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0886. In case the euro falls, it is possible to open long positions for a rebound from the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.0805.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 29, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro made an attempt to grow on Tuesday, but the bearish players returned it and so it ended the day with a decrease of 10 points. Thereby, the technical picture of the instrument has not changed on the daily chart. The main intrigue is still contained in the Marlin oscillator triangle, since the direction of the exit of the signal line can set the direction of the medium-term movement.

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The triangle's potential is decreasing, since the main part of the time, the line is in the territory of negative values. A signal for a significant decrease in the euro will be a fall at a low of April 6, 1.0768, and a target will open along the price channel of 1.0605.

An alternative option implies a price increase after going above a strong resistance of 1.0940, but the possible increase to 1.1165, to the line of the price channel, seems difficult and unpredictable, many strong record levels are located on this path.

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The four-hour chart shows that the MACD indicator line stopped yesterday's growth. In addition, the price remained within the accumulation range (gray area).

In accordance with the main scenario, we are waiting for the price to go out of the accumulation zone down, overcome the signal level of 1.0768 and further move to 1.0605.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on April 29, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar reached the nearest price channel line today in the Asian session, and now it is facing a choice - to gain a foothold and go higher, or turn from it into a new wave of decline, perhaps even in the medium term, where there is a chance to decline by seven figures.

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The preferred scenario seems to be to decline. The emerging divergence on the Marlin oscillator is in its favor. The immediate goal of the decline is the closest price channel line at 0.6373, below it is the MACD line at 0.6270.

The rising and alternative scenario suggests a price increase to the 0.6672 level - this is the low of October and August of 2019.

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The four-hour chart also shows a divergence being formed on the Marlin indicator. A signal level is highlighted here, having overcome which the price will go to the bearish goals - 0.6436 - yesterday's low and the MACD line (the MACD line is currently above 0.6436, but if the price drops, it will decrease).

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Forecast for USD/JPY on April 29, 2020

USD/JPY

The long consolidation of the yen was realized at the beginning of the (expected strong) downward movement. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator went down from its own wedge. The pair's quote is currently below the price channel line and below yesterday's low, when support was only pierced by the candle's lower shadow. So, we are waiting for the decline to continue to the nearest line of the price channel of the higher timeframe at around 102.40.

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The price consolidated under the MACD indicator line and below the signal level of the crossed price channel line (106.70) on the H4 chart. The Marlin oscillator is also moving down.

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NZD/CAD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.85820

Reason for Entry: 78.6% fibonacci retracement ,100% fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit : 0.82797

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support, 50%, 76.4% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.86994

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on April 29

GBP/USD 1H

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A complicated picture emerged for the pound/dollar pair on the hourly chart on April 29. There is an ascending channel that has six reference points at once. So the channel is strong. The pair's quotes worked out its upper line yesterday and rebounded off it. However, since this rebound, the pair has also managed to work out a strong area of levels of 1.2403 – 1.2416 (red rectangle), from which the quotes have repeatedly rebounded, and which now acts as a support area. According to the last movements of the pair, there was a rebound from this area again. Thus, the British pound could now return to the upper line of the channel and even go above it. And there are no prerequisites for a downward movement right now.

No statistics from the UK are scheduled for Wednesday. Therefore, the macroeconomic background for the pound/dollar pair will be the same as for the euro/dollar pair. The only difference is that the pound has already formed a more or less convincing upward trend. Accordingly, the chances of growth of the GBP/USD pair are much higher due to technical factors. The US GDP report and the evening summary of the FOMC meeting could have an impact on the pair's movement, but we believe that it is possible to close all positions before the evening or prepare for Jerome Powell's speech. In fact, the intrigue of today is how much contraction the US economy will show in the first quarter and how this reduction will be evaluated by the Fed. The worse the data on these two events, the more likely the pair will continue to grow. Thus, on April 29, we have two main options for the development of the event:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair is still in the hands of buyers, since the price continues to be located inside the ascending channel. The pair's quotes rebounded from the strong support area of 1.2403-1.2416, so now traders are advised to trade for an increase while aiming for a resistance level for the 4-hour chart of 1.2494. In this case, Take Profit can be around 40 points. According to the current technical picture, it is possible for the pair to sharply grow when the level of 1.2494 is broken.

2) Sellers will be able to trade down again only when the quotes leave the ascending channel and have managed to overcome the support area of 1.2403-1.2416. Thus, it is necessary to consolidate at 1.2390 (approximately) and only after this condition is met, it will be possible to open short positions with a fairly long-term goal of 1.2240 (the support level of the 4-hour timeframe). In this case, Take Profit can be up to 140 points. The interim target is 1.2334 – the lower level of volatility on April 29.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on April 29

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair is trading between two strong trend lines on the 4-hour chart on April 29. They are shown on the graph as two yellow lines that are the longest in the opposite direction. Each of the lines has at least two points of support. And the last support point for the downward trend line was formed yesterday. The quotes of the EUR/USD pair rebounded off the downward trend line, which showed that traders are not ready to purchase the European currency further. Thus, we now expect the pair's quotes to decline towards the upward trend line. This option is the main one today, but will the macroeconomic background prevent it?

As we have already mentioned in the fundamental articles, a large number of different reports are planned for today, mainly in the United States. However, only the GDP report can attract the attention of traders. And it is not a fact that traders are already ready to work out macroeconomic statistics again. In any case, if the actual value coincides with the forecast or does not differ too much from it (the projected range of US GDP in the first quarter is -4.0-4.6% y/y), then there will be little chance of a reaction from traders. Participants in the currency market are simply ready for such a decline in GDP, we can say that it is already embedded in the quotes of the pair. Moreover, the US dollar was under market pressure during the first two trading days of the week and yesterday, it began to grow due to technical factors. Late in the evening, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting and no one can say in advance what the rhetoric of its Chairman Jerome Powell will be and what decisions will be made by the US central bank. The key rate is likely to remain unchanged, but new lending programs or economic stimulus cannot be excluded. Traders are also waiting for the Fed to forecast key economic indicators for 2020-2021 and the timing of a period of low rates and possible economic recovery. The more dovish the Fed's rhetoric and actions are, the more likely the dollar will fall. However, we expect to close all open positions before the evening, so as not to take unnecessary risks.

Based on all of the above we have two trading ideas for April 29:

1) The first condition for resuming the downward movement has already been met. The pair's quotes rebounded off the downward trend line. Therefore, you can now sell the pair with the Stop Loss above this very trend line. You can also wait for the hourly chart to end under the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator (1.0808) and trade down to the support level of 1.0733 or slightly higher (the upward trend line). Overcoming the 1.0733 level will allow you to stay in short positions. Take Profit can be from 50 to 90 points.

2) The Second option - bullish - involves overcoming the downward trend line and in this case we recommend buying the euro while aiming for the Senkou Span B line of the Ichimoku indicator at 1.0896, next to which the first resistance level for the 4-hour chart runs – 1.0903. Overcoming these two resistances will allow you to stay in long positions with the goal of 1.0990 - the April 19 high.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 29. The Fed should provide guidance to the markets on the prospects for monetary policy.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 97.6997

On April 29, the British pound begins a downward correction against the new upward trend that was formed just yesterday. The pound/dollar pair is fixed above the moving average but does not yet give the impression of being ready to form a new upward trend. In principle, there are no particularly good reasons for the growth of the British currency. The UK economy will suffer not only from the "coronavirus" epidemic and the quarantine associated with it, but also from Brexit, negotiations on which can once again be considered deadlocked. So far, Boris Johnson is leading the country to its worst economic decline in decades. The American economy may also suffer serious losses, but they are unlikely to be comparable to the British.

On Wednesday, the pound/dollar pair will be influenced by the same macroeconomic events like the euro/dollar pair. In the UK, no significant publications are scheduled for this day, which means that market participants will focus their attention on the same US GDP report, as well as on the evening summary of the meeting of the monetary committee of the Federal Reserve. According to the tasks set by the US Congress, the Fed should promote employment growth and price stability (this means stable price growth for the same 2% target that was relevant before the "coronavirus crisis"). In the last months before the epidemic, the Fed managed to bring us inflation to a more or less stable 2%+. However, in these conditions, firstly, the significance of inflation itself has become much lower, and secondly, the US government and the Fed have to deal with the fall of the country's economy, so there is simply no need to talk about any stable growth in prices and, consequently, the growth of the economy now. The next meeting of the Fed began yesterday, and its results will be summed up this evening. In fact, no changes in monetary policy are expected. Jerome Powell and company have already lowered the key rate to almost zero, leaving themselves a minimum of room for maneuver in the future. The quantitative easing program has been expanded to uncertain values, and the Fed's balance sheet has already ballooned to 6.2 trillion, in addition to this, both the Fed and the US Congress have financed the country's economy by several trillion dollars. Moreover, it is now quite difficult to understand what specific losses the American economy will suffer? We can only judge unemployment with a high degree of probability by analyzing reports on applications for benefits. Today, the change in GDP will also be known, and the Fed itself will publish its forecasts for key indicators of the economy in the evening. However, the crisis is also a crisis that it is very difficult to control and predict. Moreover, the crisis is not yet complete, it has not even entered the stage of slowing down the fall. Donald Trump and Steven Mnuchin have already said that the economy will slowly restart, and the economic borders of the states and the country will open. However, no one knows how it will end. It is possible that there will be a second wave of the epidemic. For example, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, believes that we need to look at public health, not the economy. "While the virus continues to spread, we need to maintain some restrictions in the economy," Bostic said. Thus, at the end of the meeting, the markets want to get information about how long the Fed plans to keep rates at ultra-low levels, as well as how the FOMC assesses the prospects for the economy. For example, after the 2008 crisis, the American economy began to recover only in 2009, and the labor market began to show steady growth only in 2010. World experts are increasingly comparing the current crisis (which is not yet over!!!) to the Great Depression, which lasted at least 4 years. The same experts believe that the "mortgage crisis", during which the world economy showed growth of 0.18%, is in no way comparable to the crisis caused by the COVID-2019 pandemic. Thus, it is logical to assume that the decline will be more serious than 12 years ago. Market participants are also waiting for information from the Fed about the future direction of the economy. After all, the rhetoric of the Fed will depend on the desire of businesses to resort to borrowed funds. Even if borrowing is very cheap, as it is now, this does not mean that all companies will resort to using this tool. Companies should be optimistic about the future and understand the precise time frame when the crisis will end and the economy will start to recover. This will determine the mood of investors, managers, and their desire to take out loans and revive their own business.

Well, in the UK at this time, Boris Johnson, who only returned to the role of Prime Minister on Monday, came under harsh criticism. As we have previously written, the claims against Johnson are reduced to underestimating the high risk of an epidemic in the country. The warnings of authorized persons about the threat of an epidemic were not taken into account, the health sector was not prepared for a possible pandemic, as a result, the country faced a high number of diseases and a high death rate, much higher than the 3-5% that is "average" for the virus. The country has already registered 158,000 cases of the disease. Thus, Britain has almost caught up with Germany, which also has 158,000 cases of infection. However, if Germany recorded 6,0000 deaths from the disease, in Britain – 21,000, that is 3.5 times more. Moreover, yesterday, doctors in the UK made an official statement, according to which a new dangerous viral disease in children was detected, which may be associated with a "coronavirus". British Health Minister Matt Hancock yesterday made a statement about a new disease that is still unknown to doctors. It is reported that the new disease affects mainly children who are hospitalized with heart and abdominal pain. "There is growing concern that British children are developing an inflammatory syndrome associated with Sars-CoV-2, or that another, as yet unidentified, the infectious pathogen may be present in these cases," say representatives of the UK's national health system. Over the past three weeks, the number of children with an unknown disease similar to Kawasaki syndrome, for which there is no treatment, has increased significantly. However, many children did not show signs of "coronavirus". Thus, at the moment, it is not even clear whether the new pathogen is related to COVID-2019 and where it came from.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair has stopped decreasing and is currently 102 points. In the last 20-25 trading days, the volatility indicators have been stable. On Wednesday, April 29, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2334 and 1.2538. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate a downward correction or even a possible resumption of downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2390

S2 - 1.2329

S3 - 1.2268

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2451

R2 - 1.2512

R3 - 1.2573

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair may start to adjust on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, traders are recommended today to consider buying the pound with the goals of 1.2512 and 1.2538, after the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back up. It is recommended to sell British currency no earlier than fixing traders below the moving average line with the first goal Murray level of "4/8"-1.2329. Toward evening, you should be as careful as possible with any positions, since bursts of emotions in the foreign exchange market are possible.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 29. 1 million patients with "coronavirus" in the United States. Trump opens Texas and

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 32.0632

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to adjust at the beginning of a new trading week. Moreover, this correction is increasingly taking the form of a flat. At least now we can say with confidence that there is no trend movement since the pair is trading between the moving average line directed sideways and the Murray level of "1/8"-1.0864, that is, in the range of 30-40 points wide. Thus, in any case, to resume trading the pair, it is recommended to wait for the exit from this range. In general, the downward trend persists in the long term, as evidenced by two downward channels of linear regression.

A huge amount of macroeconomic information is planned for the third trading day of the week in the European Union and the United States. Thus, traders will clearly not be bored today. Another thing is that no important messages and figures are expected from the European Union, but really important information will be received from overseas. However, first things first. In the European Union, indicators that can only be interesting in general will be released today. But this interest will definitely not be reflected in the charts of the euro/dollar currency pair. For example, an indicator such as the index of economic sentiment, which is based on a survey of consumers, or the level of consumer confidence, which reflects consumer confidence in the current economic situation, or the business climate indicator, which assesses the conditions for doing business, or business optimism indices in the services and industry sectors, which reflect the mood of business leaders in these areas. It is easy to guess that by the end of April, all these indicators will collapse down, as well as many others. Nothing else can be expected here. And traders will most likely ignore these reports. Thus, you can not focus on these publications too much.

A little later, data on inflation for April will be received from Germany. These data are preliminary, but, nevertheless, they do not promise anything good. In April, a strong slowdown in the consumer price index is expected - to 0.6% in annual terms and to 0.0% in monthly terms. Most likely, a strong decline in inflation will be due to the fall in oil prices around the world and the accompanying cheapening of gasoline or other fuels. And in any case, in times of crisis, traders are not too interested in reducing or increasing prices. At a time when the economy is essentially stagnant and residents are in quarantine, it doesn't matter too much whether, for example, cars have become more expensive. No one is buying them now anyway. Thus, the inflation indicator turned from an extremely important one, which central banks relied on when adjusting their monetary policies, to a secondary one.

There will also be quite a lot of information coming in from overseas tomorrow. Everything starts with what is probably the most important report on GDP for the first quarter. According to experts' forecasts, the most important indicator of the state of the economy will lose 4% in the first quarter. Some forecasts predict a fall of 4.6-5.0%. However, in any case, there will be a decrease. But the figure by which the US economy will decline is not final. The first quarter has not yet been completed, which means that by the end of it and, according to the final calculations, there may be an even greater reduction. Also on Wednesday, April 29, the United States will publish indicators of the price index of GDP and personal consumption expenditures for the first quarter. However, this data is unlikely to interest the markets. Thus, before the evening meeting of the Fed, the most significant report of the day will be GDP. Moreover, this is the only indicator, from our point of view, that traders can react to. After all, in fact, market participants are now interested in only one question: how much will the US, EU, and global economies decline? This is what will now determine the confrontation of national currencies, as well as the United States themselves in the international arena. Accordingly, traders can react to the GDP data, although they previously ignored data on unemployment, Nonfarm Payrolls, inflation, retail sales, business activity, and orders for durable goods. Because it was clear that all these indicators would fall. GDP will obviously also fall, but the size of its fall will determine the duration of economic recovery in the future.

Steven Mnuchin and Donald Trump in one voice declare that in the near future, the economic borders of the United States will be opened, and the country will begin to return to normal life. According to Trump, there are obvious signs of improvement in the situation with the "coronavirus" epidemic. Therefore, the country's Finance Minister and President want to restart the economy as soon as possible. For example, from May 1, the state of Texas will be opened, its residents will be able to get out of home quarantine, shopping centers and cinemas will be opened (with some restrictions). It is obvious that far from the most affected by the pandemic, Texas will be a kind of "laboratory rat", which will have to answer the question about the possibility and probability of a second wave of the epidemic when removing quarantine measures. If the experiment with Texas is successful, then restrictions in other states will be gradually removed. The problem is different – at the moment, according to official information, the number of people infected with the COVID-2019 virus in the United States is one million people. Yale University Clinical Epidemiology Professor Robert Hecht, for example, believes that most infected people in the United States are not even aware that they are infected. As previously reported, the virus can be completely asymptomatic in many people with a strong immune system. It can take place in a very easy form, in which even a doctor's appointment is not required. Accordingly, these patients do not go to medical institutions, but still remain carriers of infection and can infect other people. It is also reported that in the United States, more than 5.5 million tests for "coronavirus" were conducted, but they were conducted only in those patients who went to hospitals. Studies on antibodies in random New Yorkers suggest that at least 2.7 million were infected in this city alone. The same opinion is shared by the Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who said that the world is far from ending the pandemic. "We continue to strongly recommend that countries find, isolate, test, and process all cases and track every contact to ensure that the spread of the virus is further reduced." Thus, lifting the quarantine in one of the most infected countries – the United States – may turn into a second wave of the epidemic. The United States also leads the world in the number of "fatalities" – 56,000.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of April 29 is 81 points. Volatility, therefore, remains average in strength, and there is no reason to expect a new wave of panic yet. Today, we expect the pair's quotes to move between the levels of 1.0750 and 1.0912. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal the end of the upward correction cycle.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0742

S2 - 1.0620

S3 - 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0864

R2 - 1.0986

R3 - 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to adjust against the downward trend. Thus, traders are recommended to trade down today with the goal of a volatility level of 1.0750, but after fixing the price below the moving average. It is recommended to consider buying the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price above the Murray level of 1.0864 with the goals of 1.0912 and 1.0986.

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