Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 2, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, after a repeated unsuccessful attempt to break through the pullback level of 23.6% - 1.0935 (blue dashed line), the price may possibly make a pullback move down with the target 1.0921 - the target level is 168.2% (red dashed line). From this level, there is a good opportunity to work up with the target of 1.0968 - a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, an upward movement is possible.

The upper target of 1.0968 is a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

The intermediate target is 1.1049 - the upper fractal.

An unlikely scenario is lower work with the target of 1.0880 - lower fractal.

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The US economy signals the entry into recession (we are expecting the publication of data from ADP, and we will sell or

On Tuesday, the published economic statistics in the US collapsed the local stock market, significantly brought the probability of not only continuing to reduce interest rates by the Federal Reserve, but also the possibility of a large-scale easing of monetary policy

Also, yesterday, nothing foreshadowed the negative development of events on trading floors in the USA and a sharp weakening of the US dollar. First, the published values of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) pleased the market participants, adding up to 51.1 points from 50.3 points, while it was expected to increase to 51.0 points. Moreover, trading in the US stock market began on a positive note. Major stock indexes also opened with gaps. Yields on US Treasury bonds went up too, and the US dollar received some support. However, as it turned out - the main news, and with it the negative ones, was yet to come.

Later at 3 p.m. London time, the industrial activity indicator for the USA (PMI) for September was released, together with an index from the American Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Unfortunately, it just showed a negative trend. According to the data presented, the index fell sharply to 47.8 points from 49.1 points, while it was expected to increase to 50.4 points. The decline of the indicator below the key level of 50 points indicates a decrease in economic growth.

Against the background of these values, the situation in the markets has changed dramatically. The stock market in the United States went down, as the Treasury yields did. Meanwhile, protective assets — gold and safe haven currencies — began to be in demand. The dollar, in turn, came under pressure in the wake of a sharp increase in expectations of another cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.

In our opinion, our forecast that the American economy will have a high probability of failure in the recession pit will most likely come true by the end of this year. The slowdown in economic growth will have to force the Federal Reserve to not only lower rates by 0.25% once again, limiting itself to supporting local financial markets only by repurchase transactions, but also to begin larger-scale incentives for the market dubbed QE4 following the September performance by J. Powell.

Today and Friday, updated data on employment in the States will be presented. Today, these are values from ADP, and on Friday, from the Ministry of Labor. We assume that if they turn out to be worse, especially the expectations for Friday's values, this will be an incentive for the continuation of a limited decline in the US stock market, growth in demand for defensive assets and a weakening dollar. In our opinion, their negativity will only increase pressure on the Fed, which will have to take urgent measures to correct the situation in the economy. Therefore, this could be a prologue to new measures to ease monetary policy and stimulate the economy. By the way, all these difficulties occur against the background of the impeachment procedure of President D. Trump, initiated by the "democrats" in the United States, which can only aggravate the chaos in world markets.

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD is trading below 1.0940 on a wave of negative news for the dollar. We believe that if the employment data from ADP turns out to be weaker than the forecast, this will lead to the continuation of a local price increase to 1.1000, but for this to happen, it is necessary to first overcome the level of 1.0940. At the same time, if the statistics are positive, we should expect the pair to turn down and decrease to 1.0880.

USD/JPY is trading above 107.65. We believe that the pair will also move based on US statistics. Negative values from ADP can also lead to a breakthrough of the level of 107.65 and a decline in the price to 107.00. Positive values, on the contrary, will lead to a local increase to 108.45.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 10/02/2019 and a trading recommendation

Market participants quite calmly reacted to preliminary data on inflation in Europe, which showed its deceleration from 1.0% to 0.9%. This is largely due to the fact that after unexpectedly poor preliminary data on inflation in Germany, a similar result was quite predictable. In addition, there was reason for joy in the form of final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Europe, which fell from 47.0 not to 45.6, but to 45.7. It's certainly terrible that the index continues to fall below 50.0 points, but still, not at the pace as expected. No less important is the fact that a similar picture is taking shape in Europe's largest economy. In Germany in particular, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 43.5 to 41.7, and not to 41.4. But in France the picture is somewhat worse, but only at first glance. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 51.1 to 50.1, while they expected a decrease to 50.3. However, it is still above 50.0 points, which is significantly better than in Germany.

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The market also reacted quite casually to the final Markit data on the index of business activity in the United States, which showed growth from 50.3 to 51.1. This turned out to be slightly better than forecasts, which showed growth to 51.0. But a little later, the market became somewhat feverish, and the reason was that the ISM data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector showed a decrease from 49.1 to 47.8, instead of growth to 50.1, became the reason. Market participants seized on this data, as yet another evidence of the imminent approaching recession. However, it most likely worked that the dollar was slightly overbought, and ahead of the Friday publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, these imbalances should be addressed. Also, the fact that the two indices moved in completely different directions had an impact.

Markit Manufacturing PMI (US):

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But everything went back to square one pretty quickly. This time, Mario Draghi became a troublemaker, who, in the course of his speech, almost directly stated that the European Central Bank would soon reduce the refinancing rate. The truth is not entirely clear, will this happen even under Mario Draghi, or under Christine Lagarde?

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Investors of all stripes are now keeping in mind the upcoming Friday publication of the United States Department of Labor report, so any labor market data will drive the market participants into a frenzy. So today's ADP employment data is incredibly important to the market. And these same data can show employment growth of 140 thousand, against 195 thousand in the previous month. Obviously, this will be perceived as a signal that the contents of the report of the Ministry of Labor may turn out to be somewhat disappointing, which will negatively affect the dollar.

Employment Change from ADP (US)

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The EUR/USD pair still failed to stay at the levels of May 2017 and as a result, there was a pullback to the previously passed pivot point of 1.0930. The movement of the past day itself is similar to a V-shaped oscillation, in the tact of a downward trend. Considering what is happening in general terms, we see that the pulse cycle in the trend structure lasts as long as 12 trading days, where, in principle, there was no proper stop in the form of a pullback/stagnation. Thus, local overheating of short positions in this market phase does not take place.

It is likely to assume that the current stop at 1.0925/1.0942 will not last very long, where in general terms a further pullback towards 1.0980-1.1000 is considered. Regarding the current stagnation [1,0925/1,0942] it would be advisable not to take hasty actions, since the analysis of consolidation points can give the most accurate, local forecast.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

• Long positions, we consider in case of price consolidation higher than 1.0960, with the prospect of a move to 1.0980-1.1000.

• Short positions, we consider in case of price consolidation lower than 1.0920, with the prospect of a move to 1.0900-1.0880.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see a versatile interest. So the daily period is focused on the main trend, that is, it signals a downward movement. Hourly periods try to work on a pullback, providing a signal about purchases. Minute intervals hovered on existing stagnation, giving out neutral interest.

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Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for October 2. Euro and pound perked up, but for how long?

EUR / USD

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Tuesday, October 1, ended for the EUR / USD pair with an increase of 35 basis points. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 127.2% Fibonacci level, as I expected yesterday, led the pair quotes to move away from the lows reached. However, the current wave marking has not undergone any changes. It is still expected to build a bearish wave 5 as part of the downward trend section. If this assumption is correct, then the instrument will resume decline today or tomorrow.

Fundamental component:

A rather large number of interesting economic reports came out yesterday. However, we will not dwell on each of them in detail, we list only the "bare" numbers. Indices of business activity in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the European Union amounted to 41.7 and 45.7, respectively. Inflation in the European Union declined to 0.9% in September, while business activity indices in US manufacturing were 51.1 and 47.8. With that, it was the latest index with a value of 47.8 (PMI ISM) that probably upset the markets the most. Otherwise, it is impossible to explain the rise of the euro and the pound in the afternoon.

Today, in America, there will be a report from ADP on the change in the number of employees in the private sector, which involves the creation of 140,000 new jobs.

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As you can see from the illustration, this value will be lower than the previous month, which will be very difficult to exceed. But in any case, the markets will be primarily interested in matching the real value and from their own expectations. Thus, in order for the bears to actively sell the instrument again today, it is necessary for the ADP report to show more jobs than 140,000.

Purchase goals:

1.1109 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0876 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.0814 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

Today, the euro-dollar pair continues to build a downward set of waves. I expect the continuation of the decline in the pair with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.0876 and 1.0814, which equates to 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci. In addition, I recommend selling the instrument by the MACD signal "down".

GBP / USD

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On October 1, the GBP / USD pair added a few more basic points, although it made impressive jumps both up and down during the day. Meanwhile, the unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level, as well as weak economic data from America, led to the departure of quotes from the lows reached and the construction of an internal correctional wave as part of the proposed 1 new downward trend section. If this assumption is true, then the forecast is the same as for the EUR / USD pair - continuation of decline.

Fundamental component:

Yesterday, the British PMI for manufacturing showed a positive trend, increasing from 47.7 to 48.3. However, this is still not enough to state an improvement in the state of the entire industry. Today, I expect from Britain an index of business activity in the construction sector, which may be even more important than in the manufacturing sector. Despite that, the forecasts here are much lower - 45.0, which indicates an even more depressing state of this industry. On Brexit's topic, only one thing can be said now: It is tightly stuck at the "dead center". Thus, Boris Johnson is trying to find an alternative to "backstop", and MPs are thinking when it is better to pass a vote of no confidence in Johnson, while the European Union is waiting for proposals from London under the agreement on Brexit.

Sales goals:

1.2229 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2147 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2582 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument supposedly continues to build a bearish trend section. Thus, now, I expect the continuation of the decline of the instrument in the direction of the levels of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci as part of the construction of the first wave. The MACD signal "down" may indicate the construction of a new bearish wave.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 02/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Testnet network Ethereum under the name Istanbul (which operates under the Ropsten testnet) was launched on September 30. Considering the existing problems related to the dates of the planned hard forks, this can be considered a great success. The whole was able to run even two days before the earlier announced date, which fell on October 2.

Unfortunately, after the activation of Ropsten an unplanned fork occurred. So now two chains are working.

The issue of the community centered around the Vitalik Buterin platform was explained by the community manager at the Ethereum Hudson Jameson Foundation. In his tweet from yesterday, he described what happened. Today, some miners are still mining the old version of Ropsten. Another copy of its new, updated version. The programmer, however, calms down. The problem is to be solved. Information should not worry investors: they are testnets, so that such errors come out during their duration.

Jameson also explains what exactly happened. The genesis of the problem is the nature of blockchains based on the proof-of-work algorithm, including Ethereum. The miners in them must independently update the software to be able to dig as part of a new chain. This time some of them did not and the result was an unplanned division.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $185.05, but so far couldn't make it to the 50% of Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $187.37. The supply zone located between the levels of $172.82 - $176.66 has been clearly broken, the momentum is now increasing significantly, so there is a chance for the bulls to hit the level of 50% of even the 61% shortly if the trendline dynamic support around the level of $172.82 will provide the bounce. In the case of a trendline violation, the nearest technical support is located at the level of $163.98.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $256.80

WR2 - $233.68

WR1 - $197.61

Weekly Pivot - $174.45

WS1 - $137.03

WS2 - $112.52

WS3 - $77.73

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 02/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Bitcoin network experienced fresh turbulence on September 30, while at the same time there was information about a fire that destroyed $ 10 million mining platforms.

According to Marshall Long, one of Bitcoin's first active miners, the giant data center of the mining company Innosilicon began to burn on Monday. We still know very little details about the incident, but there was a movie showing that the machines were supposedly still working, although they were on fire.

Dovey Wan, the founding partner of Primitive Ventures, added that the total value of the equipment involved was about $ 10 million. Innosilicon has not published any public comments yet.

Commentators on social media quickly voiced concerns that the fire is to blame for the reported decline in Bitcoin's hash rate. On the day the incident occurred, the estimates of the computing power of the network involved in transaction processing fell from 86 quintillions h / s to 82 quintillions h / s.

However, as mentioned earlier, hash rate estimates give only a limited picture of the overall state of Bitcoin. Last week the indicator seemed to fall by 40% - later it was widely ignored by technical charts.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high after a bounce towards the level of $8,474, but the momentum is now decreasing. The bounce then is ratehr shallow and the technical resistance located at the level of #9,046 has not been hit as the price is still far away from it. There is still a chance for the wave (C) terminated already, but if the bears will keep making pressure on bulls then the price might reverse and target the level of $7,419.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,446

WR2 - $10,627

WR1 - $9,093

Weekly Pivot - $8,403

WS1 - $6,727

WS2 - $6,011

WS3 - $4,444

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Control zones EURUSD 10/02/19

Yesterday, there was a stop of the downward movement and the emergence of large demand. On Monday, absorption of the bearish movement did not happen, however, we are observing the closing of yesterday's trading above Weekly Control Zone 1/4 1.0923-1.0919, which indicates a possible change in dynamics. The first growth target is the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.0967-1.0959.

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It is important to note that there was a test of the monthly middle course zone at the end of last month, which is a strong medium-term support.

The option to reduce the pair will be developed if today's closing of trading occurs below the Weekly Control Zone 1/4 1.0903-1.0899. This will allow to consider the sale of the instrument again. The purpose of which will be the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.0854-1.0846.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD. "Final British warning": Johnson will announce his ultimatum today

The pound-dollar pair came close to the boundaries of the 21st figure yesterday, stopping only at the level of 1,2204. Only extremely weak data on the growth of the ISM manufacturing index in the US were able to extinguish the downward impulse: the US currency weakened throughout the market, and the GBP/USD pair was no exception. However, it only a respite for the pound. The negative fundamental background for the British currency will continue to exert strong pressure on the pair, especially in the run-up to today's event, which we will discuss below.

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The dollar index showed strong growth at the beginning of the trading week, gaining a foothold in the area of 99 points. The US currency strengthened amid the ongoing political scandal in the USA, as well as after the announcement of the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, which lowered the rate for the third time this year, announcing further steps in this direction. This step of the Australian regulator made investors nervous, and not only traders of the AUD/USD pair - almost all dollar pairs reacted to this news. This is a kind of signal indicating the continuation of the "era of monetary easing" of the central bank of the leading countries of the world. Representatives of many regulators confirm such intentions - "dovish" intentions were voiced, in particular, by members of the ECB, Bank of Japan, RBNZ. The Bank of England did not stand aside.

Thus, Michael Saunders, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, said at the end of last week that the English regulator would most likely have to lower the interest rate - even if the "soft" scenario of Brexit is implemented. In his opinion, this step is appropriate, since a stimulating monetary policy to some extent eliminates the negative consequences of a slowdown in the global economy. As you can see, the Bank of England focuses not only on Brexit, but also on disappointing global growth. Earlier, representatives of the British central bank linked the prospects of monetary policy only with the prospects of a "divorce proceedings".

This fact exerted a fairly strong pressure on the pound, especially since the Brexit issue remains in limbo. The annual conference of the ruling Conservative party started on Sunday in Manchester, England. As experts expect, as a result of its holding, Conservatives will carry out the main (final) proposals to Brussels, which they will support in Parliament. According to the British press, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will make a statement today. He will unveil his "last sentence" for his European colleagues, making it clear that if they do not agree to the ultimatum voiced, then London will cease to participate in the negotiation process.

Downing Street published only excerpts from this report, which are uninformative in nature. In them, Johnson repeats the long-known theses on the need to implement Brexit on October 31 "with or without a deal." The office of the head of government also announced that the new plan would involve replacing the back-stop mechanism. However, there are no distinct details of the updated script in the official release of the government.

However, some British journalists have gained access to this document. According to them, Johnson's plan is tentatively called "Two Borders for Four Years." The scenario proposed by the prime minister involves the separation of the Irish Sea by the temporary border, with the simultaneous introduction of customs checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. According to Johnson, this will allow Belfast to remain part of the single EU market after the implementation of Brexit, but temporarily - until 2025. Further prospects are more hazy. According to London's preliminary plans, after 5 years, the Parliament of Northern Ireland will decide whether Belfast will act according to the rules of the European Union or whether it will return to the orbit of British law, which is expected to be quite different from European standards.

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By and large, the essence of Johnson's updated plan comes down to an alternative to the back-stop mechanism, which has become the main stumbling block to the implementation of Brexit. It is worth noting here that earlier Brussels has repeatedly stated that it will not go to change the already agreed mechanism. Theresa May's draft deal (which failed three times in the House of Commons) suggested that backstop is indefinite, and in the absence of an agreement between London and Brussels, Ulster is still part of the EU single market and customs union to prevent a "tough" border. Representatives of the European side for a long time did not get tired of repeating that they would not deviate from the agreed conditions.

Nevertheless, last night there was unconfirmed information that Brussels allegedly admits the possibility of introducing a time frame for the "backstop". Unnamed sources at Bloomberg said the EU leadership is now considering this scenario.

Thus, the essence of Johnson's new plan is clear. Now the only question is how European leaders will react to this idea. The fate of the pound in the medium term will depend on their rhetoric.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 02/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken down from the narrow range between the levels of 1.2342 - 1.2282 and made a fresh new low at the level of 1.2206, just 10 pips above the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2196. The technical support at the level of 1.2231 had been violated as well and the Bullish Engulfing pattern has been made. Please notice, the market conditions are now extremely oversold and the RSI is showing a negative and weak momentum, so the bounce might continue higher, but the level of 61% Fibonacci can not be violated.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2628

WR2 - 1.2566

WR1 - 1.2402

Weekly Pivot - 1.2333

WS1 - 1.2163

WS2 - 1.2096

WS3 - 1.1935

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2505 and it must be clearly violated. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key short-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2381. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 02/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

After making a new local low at the level of 1.0879 the EUR/USD pair printed a promising Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. The bounce has reached the level of 1.0942, but the short-term and long-term trend is still down, but due to the extremely oversold market conditions. The bulls still have a chance for a move towards the level of 1.0964 and higher towards the level of 1.0978, but they need to break out of the descending channel. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0817.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1116

WR2 - 1.1087

WR1 - 1.0996

Weekly Pivot - 1.0951

WS1 - 1.0872

WS2 - 1.0826

WS3 - 1.0757

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Control zones GBPUSD 10/02/19

Today the pair is trading near WCZ 1/4 1.2296-1.2288. If the opening of today's European trading occurs above this zone, this will serve as a signal to enter the purchase. The first goal of growth will be WCZ 1/2 .2388-1.2372. The range between the zones is 90 points, so you need to find a pattern that will allow you to set a stop loss of no more than 30 points.

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It is important to understand that with a decrease, a weekly control zone of 1.2246-1.2213 was achieved, which caused the fall to stop. Upward movement remains a priority in the medium term.

The medium-term upward model, formed in September, is the main one for work at the beginning of the current month. If the pair can stay above the weekly control zone, the upward movement will continue, and the September high will become the main target of growth.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones AUDUSD 10/02/19

Today the pair is trading above the WCZ 1/4 0.6710-0.6706. This allows you to consider purchases in the event that the close of trading occurs above the zone. The first goal is the WCZ 1/2 0.6747-0.6740, where the fate of the downward medium-term impulse is determined.

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It is important to understand that ongoing growth is corrective. This suggests the need to consolidate part of the purchases at important resistance levels.

To work towards pulling down the pair, it is necessary to absorb the current growth of the Asian session and the opening of European trading below the WCZ 1/4. If this happens, an alternative model will be included in the work, where the first target of the decline will be the zone of the average course of the week.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, October 02,2019

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When the European market opens, a report on Spanish Unemployment Change will be released. The US will publish such economic data as Crude Oil Inventories and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.So, amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.0988. Strong Resistance: 1.0982. Original Resistance: 1.0971. Inner Sell Area: 1.0960. Target Inner Area: 1.0935. Inner Buy Area: 1.0910. Original Support: 1.0899. Strong Support: 1.0888. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0882. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 2. Regular rumors supported the pound and returned the pair to a resistance

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, the bears began to actively get rid of the British pound, and everything indicated the continuation of the downward trend in the pair after the breakdown of support 1.2270. However, rumors that spread at the conference of the Conservative party of Great Britain that Boris Johnson will soon present the EU with his Brexit plan that includes proposals on many important issues has helped the bulls regain their positions in the afternoon. If you look at it this way, then nothing has changed from a technical point of view. The next formation of a false breakdown in the region of 1.2270 will be a signal to buy the pound, which will lead to an upward correction of the pair to the area of the upper boundary of the side channel at 1.2327, consolidating above which will strengthen demand for GBP/USD, which will update resistance at 1.2364, where I recommend taking profit. If the level of 1.2270 is nevertheless broken due to data on the construction industry, it is best to consider new purchases in GBP/USD after updating the lows near 1.2233 and 1.2198.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Bears managed to protect the 1.2327 level yesterday, to which I have repeatedly paid attention. It will be possible to talk about the continuation of the bearish trend only after breaking the support of 1.2270, which can lead to a further decrease in GBP/USD to 1.2233 and a test of the week's low in the area of 1.2198, where I recommend taking profit. If the pressure on the pair weakens, which can happen only after a good report on the UK construction industry is released, or positive news on Brexit appears, it is best to sell the pound after an upward correction to the upper boundary of the side channel at 1.2327, provided that there is a false breakdown there, or immediately a rebound from a high of 1.2364.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates some market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2227, while the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2330 will act as resistance.

analytics5d94347269ff9.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, October 02,2019

analytics5d9406117c8ba.jpg

Japan will release such economic data as the Consumer Confidence, Monetary Base y/y while the US will publish such economic data as Crude Oil Inventories and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance.3:108.25.

Resistance. 2:108.04.

Resistance. 1:107.83.

Support. 1:107.57.

Support. 2:107.36.

Support. 3:107.15.

(Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 2 - 2019

analytics5d942f4e6f2f6.png

GBP/JPY broke below key support at 132.10 as expected and should move closer to the ideal target at 130.78 before completing red wave ii and setting the stage for the next impulsive rally in red wave iii towards 139.15.

Only a direct break above 133.43 will indicate that red wave ii could have completed earlier than expected. While a break above 134.61 will confirm the completion of red wave ii and the unfolding of red wave iii.

R3: 134.03

R2: 133.43

R1: 132.91

Pivot: 132.48

S1: 131.76

S2: 131.38

S3: 130.78

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 131.25 or upon a break above 133.43

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 2. Bulls can continue to push the euro up, provided that they maintain

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's weak report on manufacturing activity from ISM caused the US dollar to sharply fall against the euro, today pressure may continue after the release of data from ADP on the number of employees. However, in the morning, to maintain the upward trend, the bulls will need to protect the support of 1.0930, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be a signal for the further opening of long positions in the expectation of updating the highs of 1.0958 and 1.0988, where I recommend taking profit. If after a speech by representatives of the European Central Bank, the EUR/USD pair goes below the support of 1.0930, then it is best to count on long positions after testing the area of 1.0905, or on a rebound from a larger low of 1.0878.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

In the morning, the release of important fundamental statistics on the eurozone is not planned, so traders will wait for new benchmarks from representatives of the European Central Bank and data from the US ADP. An important task is to return to the support level of 1.0930, which may increase the pressure on the pair and lead to the update of yesterday's lows 1.0905 and 1.0878, where I recommend taking profits. If the demand for the euro continues in the first half of the day, then only the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.0958 will be a signal to open short positions. In a different scenario, selling EUR/USD is best done for a rebound from a high of 1.0988.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the likely completion of a downward trend in the short term.

Bollinger bands

In case EUR/USD declines in the morning, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.0890. A break of the upper boundary at 1.0958 will lead to a larger upward trend.

analytics5d943097a6762.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 2 - 2019

analytics5d942e27b1f7f.png

We are still looking for a clear break above short-term key-resistance at 118.56. A break above the key-resistance will be a strong indication that wave ii has completed and a new impulsive rally in wave iii is starting for a rally towards at least 121.93 and likely even higher.

Short-term key support is seen at 117.43. If it is broken, the potential downside should be limited to the 117.14 - 117.28 area before completing wave ii and setting the stage for wave iii higher

R3: 118.79

R2: 118.56

R1: 118.20

Pivot: 118.02

S1: 117.91

S2: 117.73

S3: 117.55

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.92 with our stop placed at 117.40

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 2, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro sharply jumped by 40 points on Tuesday after the release of the disappointing index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM - in September, the indicator fell to 47.8 from 49.1, while investors expected growth to 50.4. The technical picture has now become almost a reversal - a double convergence has formed on the daily chart. But this first glance may turn out to be erroneous. If we allow this option, then the big players lose their sense of pushing the euro from September 18, which we wrote about earlier. There are also two strong resistances in front of the price: 1.0985 - the Fibonacci level of 138.2%, and 1.1065 - the Fibonacci level of 123.6% and the MACD line. And until the first resistance is overcome, the observed growth will be interpreted by us as having only a psychological basis.

analytics5d942f0362ed2.png

On the four-hour chart, the rising moment is strongly expressed; the signal line of the Marlin oscillator worked out convergence with the transition to the growth zone and went up from the range indicated in the window in gray. But this also shows the short duration of the movement - the Marlin line has drawn vertically upward, will soon reach the overbought zone, which predicts a probable restoration of a declining trend.

analytics5d942f18e10d6.png

So, after overcoming the price of the first resistance at 1.0985, it is likely that the correction will continue to the target of 1.1065. After leaving the price at yesterday's low of 1.0879, the euro will again try to work out the target range of 1.0805/45.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 2,2019

GBP/USD

The pound was trading over 130 points on tuesday, due to mixed news about a possible tight border with Ireland and a weakening dollar on the weak ISM Manufacturing PMI, which fell from 49.1 to 47.8 in September. Manufacturing PMI in the UK increased from 47.4 to 48.3. The British pound is currently at the opening level of the week and, accordingly, the technical parameters remain the same; the immediate goal again is the Fibonacci level of 223.6% at the price of 1.2230, behind which the second target is located near the Fibonacci level of 1.2144 (238.2%), which coincides with the enclosed line of the price channel. From the second goal, a deeper correction is possible. The Marlin oscillator on the daily scale did not react to yesterday's price dynamics.

analytics5d942db412da8.png

On the four-hour chart, growth stopped at the resistance of the balance line. The Marlin signal line is still above zero, moving along the boundary - in a neutral position. The general trend is decreasing.

analytics5d942dc8b06e4.png

The declining trend will be broken after the price goes above the MACD line in the region of 1.2390, this level is close to the low on July 17, which gives additional weight to its significance. In this case, growth may continue to the price channel line on the daily chart to the area of 1.2496.

In the main scenario, we are waiting for price consolidation at 1.2230 with a further decrease to 1.2144.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 2,2019

USD/JPY

On the daily USD/JPY chart, the price went above the price channel line yesterday, but could not gain a foothold due to the unexpected "crash" of the ISM Manufacturing PMI US index, which fell from 49.1 to 47.8 in September against expectations of growth to 50.4. The fall in the index sharply raises the importance of today's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - a change in the number of jobs in the US private sector today and Friday's Nonfarm payrolls data; the forecast for the ADP index is 140 thousand against 195 thousand a month earlier, for Nonfarm 140 thousand against 130 thousand in August. The output of the data, no worse than expected, can mitigate the failure of the Manufacturing PMI and keep tension in the market until the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month. Weak labor data will raise expectations for the October rate cut and could weaken the dollar even more.

So, today we are waiting for the release of data on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for September. Strong data will make it possible for the price to go above the resistance of the trend line at 108.22. So far, we are supporters of positive scenarios in the US economy.

analytics5d942c87c0f3a.png

On the four-hour chart, the price is below the MACD line, but above the balance line and is visually preparing to go above these lines. The Marlin oscillator in the negative zone, but also tends to move into the growth zone.

analytics5d942c9d27622.png

The failure of US data will push the price to support green price channel (107.28), and then likely drop to the MACD line on the daily scale price 106.62.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on October 2

Forecast for October 2:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

analytics5d9402d41e1ac.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1007, 1.0991, 1.0966, 1.0944, 1.0880, 1.0839, 1.0811 and 1.0761. Here, the price is in correction and forms a small potential for the top of October 1. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.0880. In this case, the target is 1.0839. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.0839 - 1.0811. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0761. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.0944 - 1.0966. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of expressed initial conditions for the subsequent development of the upward cycle. Here, the goal is 1.0991. Noise range - 1.0991 - 1.1007.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 13, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0945 Take profit: 1.0965

Buy 1.0967 Take profit: 1.0990

Sell: 1.0880 Take profit: 1.0840

Sell: 1.0837 Take profit: 1.0813

analytics5d9402eadad45.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2422, 1.2395, 1.2352, 1.2318, 1.2258, 1.2228, 1.2203 and 1.2156. Here, the price is in correction from the downward structure and forms a small potential for the top of October 1. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2318 - 1.2352. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle of October 1. Here, the target is 1.2395. Noise range 1.2395 - 1.2422.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.2258 - 1.2228. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the subsequent development of a downward trend in the scale of H1. In this case, the first goal is 1.2203. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2156. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 20, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2318 Take profit: 1.2350

Buy: 1.2353 Take profit: 1.2395

Sell: 1.2258 Take profit: 1.2230

Sell: 1.2226 Take profit: 1.2203

analytics5d940303174e8.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0016, 0.9980, 0.9957, 0.9942, 0.9908, 0.9884 and 0.9847. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the downward movement of October 1. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9908. In this case, the target is 0.9884. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9884 will lead to a pronounced movement to a potential target - 0.9847. We expect a pullback to the top from this level.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9942 - 0.9957. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9980. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the bottom of October 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9942 Take profit: 0.9956

Buy : 0.9960 Take profit: 0.9980

Sell: 0.9908 Take profit: 0.9886

Sell: 0.9882 Take profit: 0.9850

analytics5d94031c4a378.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.14, 107.96, 107.83, 107.61, 107.44, 107.32 and 107.01. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the downward movement of October 1. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.60. Here, the goal is 107.44. Price consolidation is near this level. Passing by the price of the noise range 107.44 - 107.32 will lead to the development of pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 107.01. We expect a rollback to the top from this level.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 107.83 - 107.96. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 108.14. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: the formation of the downward potential of October 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.83 Take profit: 107.96

Buy : 107.98 Take profit: 108.14

Sell: 107.60 Take profit: 107.45

Sell: 107.30 Take profit: 107.01

analytics5d9403350ae18.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3304, 1.3286, 1.3262, 1.3247, 1.3203, 1.3174, 1.3157 and 1.3131. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 23. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3203. In this case, the target is 1.3174. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3174 - 1.3157. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3131. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3247 - 1.3262. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3286. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the development of an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3304.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3247 Take profit: 1.3260

Buy : 1.3264 Take profit: 1.3286

Sell: 1.3203 Take profit: 1.3175

Sell: 1.3173 Take profit: 1.3158

analytics5d94034fda38a.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6755, 0.6730, 0.6716, 0.6673, 0.6651, 0.6637 and 0.6607. Here, the subsequent goals for the downward movement we determine from the local downward cycle on September 24. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6670. In this case, the target is 0.6651. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6651 - 0.6637. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6607. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6716 - 0.6730. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6755. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6716 Take profit: 0.6730

Buy: 0.6734 Take profit: 0.6755

Sell : 0.6670 Take profit : 0.6652

Sell: 0.6635 Take profit: 0.6607

analytics5d94036d3c9fc.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.02, 118.57, 118.28, 117.73, 117.51, 117.10 and 116.73. Here, we expect the development of the descending structure of September 18. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 117.73 - 117.51. In this case, the target is 117.10. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 116.73. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 118.28 - 118.57. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the goal is 119.02. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.28 Take profit: 118.55

Buy: 118.60 Take profit: 119.00

Sell: 117.50 Take profit: 117.10

Sell: 117.08 Take profit: 116.73

analytics5d9403a379e7d.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 134.58, 133.36, 132.72, 131.45, 130.78 and 129.88. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 20. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range 131.45 - 130.78. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to a potential target - 129.88, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 132.72 - 133.36. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 134.58. We also expect the formation of expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle to this level.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 132.72 Take profit: 133.30

Buy: 133.40 Take profit: 134.55

Sell: 131.43 Take profit: 130.80

Sell: 130.74 Take profit: 129.90

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#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from October 2, 2019 APLs &

Here's a comprehensive analysis of the development options for the movement of currency instruments #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY from October 2, 2019

Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame)

____________________

US dollar index

As further, from October 2, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will begin to flow - it will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 99.67 (the initial SSL line forks Minuette operational scale - local maximum );
  • support level of 99.35 (warning line UWL61.8 Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the warning line UWL61.8 (support level of 99.35) of the Minuette operational scale fork will direct the movement of the dollar index to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (99.20 - 99.10 - 98.95) and the equilibrium zone (99.00 - 98.80 - 98.60) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the possibility of reaching the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette (98.50).

On the other hand, a consecutive breakdown of resistance levels - 99.67 (the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale fork - local maximum) and 99.75 (the control line of UTL Minuette) will cause the continuation of the upward movement of #USDX to the warning lines UWL100.0 (99.95) and UWL161.8 (100.85) Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

analytics5d93878c1a14a.jpg

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Euro vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from October 2, 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.0930 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.0890 (warning line LWL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.0930 - the development of the movement of the single European currency will continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.0930 - 1.0950 - 1.0980) of the Minuette operational scale fork, and if there will be a breakdown of the upper boundary (1.0980) of this channel, then the upward movement of this instrument can be continued to the equilibrium zone (1.1025 -1.1070 - 1.1110) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The consecutive breakdown of the initial SSL (support level of 1.0890) and the control LTL (1.0879) lines of the Minuette operational scale fork will make it possible to reach the EUR / USD control LTL (1.0835) and LWL100.0 (1.0815) lines of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

analytics5d938777f1ab6.jpg

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Meanwhile, the development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement from October 2, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.2145 - 1.2225 - 1.2300) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The movement markings inside this zone are presented in the animated chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 1.2300) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the development of the upward movement of GBP / USD to the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.2445 - 1.2500 - 1.2550).

On the contrary, the breakdown of the lower boundary ISL61.8 (support level of 1.2145) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will make it possible to continue the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency to the start line SSL (1.2005) of the Minuette operational scale fork and minimum 1.1958.

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen in the animated chart.

analytics5d93875bcf244.jpg

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

Starting from October 2, 2019, the movement of the USD / JPY currency of the "land of the rising sun" will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (107.90 - 107.70 - 107.55) and the equilibrium zone (107.60 - 107.35 - 107.10) of the Minuette operational scale. The markup of working out the indicated levels is shown in the animated chart.

The breakdown of the lower boundary ISL61.8 (support level of 107.10) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - continuation of the downward movement of the currency of the country of the rising sun to the targets - the final Schiff Line Minuette (106.97) - 1/2 Median Line channel (106.55 - 106.00 - 105.50) Minuette operational scale fork.

However, if you return above the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 107.90) of the Minuette operational scale fork, it will be possible to continue the upward movement USD / JPY whose targets will be - control line UTL (108.25) of the Minuette operational scale fork - control line UTL Minuette (108.50) - warning lines - UWL38.2 Minuette (108.60) and UWL61.8 Minuette (109.33).

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement in the animated chart.

analytics5d9387441df2a.jpg

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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