Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 26, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 111.15. The technical picture of the pair is positive as the prices broke above the declining trend line. The upward momentum is further reinforced by the rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is mixed with bullish bias.

Hence, above 111.15, expect a new advance with targets at 111.70 and 112 in extension

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, short position is recommended below 111.15 with targets at 110.90 and 110.65.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position while the price below pivot point indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : BUY, Stop Loss: 111.15, Take Profit: 111.70

Resistance levels: 111.70, 112.00, and 112.50

Support levels: 110.90,110.65, and 110.35

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 26, 2017

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USD/CHF is turning down and expected to trade in lower range. The pair is also capped by the declining trend line since June 20, which confirms a negative outlook. The declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

The US dollar weakened against other major currencies as investors doubted whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again this year in face of softening inflation data. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed could take a break from raising rates. "Recent inflation data have surprised to the downside and call into question the idea that U.S. inflation is reliably returning toward target, the FOMC can wait and see how key macroeconomic developments play out in the quarters ahead," he said.

To conclude, as long as 0.9720 holds on the upside, a further drop to 0.9680 and even to 0.9655 seems more likely to occur.

Graph Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point, present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9720, Take Profit: 0.9680

Resistance levels: 0.9735, 0.9750, and 0.9770

Support levels: 0.9680, 0.9655, and 0.9600

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for June 26, 2017

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As predicted on FridayŠ± GBP/JPY is trading higher. The pair is trading above the rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the upside bias. The relative strength index is mixed with a bullish bias. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Hence, above 141.20, look for a further upside 142.70 and 143 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 140.80 with the target at 140.35.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 141.20, Take Profit: 142.70.

Resistance levels: 142.70, 143.00, and 143.45

Support levels: 140.80, 140.35, and 141.15

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 26, 2017

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Our Friday's NZD/USD buy position target has been hit. NZD/USD still expected to trade with bullish bias above 0.7250. Although the pair posted a pullback, it is supported by the rising 50-period moving average. A support base at 0.7250 has been formed, allowing for a temporary stabilization. Even though a continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Therefore, as long as 0.7250 is not broken, look for a further rise to 0.7320 and even to 0.7340 in extension.

Strategy: BUY Stop Loss: 0.7250. Take Profit: 0.7320

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7320, 0.7340, and 0.7380

Support levels: 0.7230, 0.7200, and 0.7160

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Analysis of GBP/USD for June 26, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2705. According to the 4H time frame, I found a successful test of 21SMA and a strong close of the bar, which are signs that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportuntiies. The upward targets are set at the levels of 1.2755 and 1.2810.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2760

R2: 1.2780

R3: 1.2810

Support levels:

S1: 1.2710

S2: 1.2685

S3: 1.2660

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for June 26, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,236.00 in an ultra high volume. According to the 15M time frame, I found a big selling climax in an ultra high volume, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The bar closed in the middle, which is a strong sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $1,253.70.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,258.80

R2: $1,259.60

R3: $1,260.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,257.80

S2: $1,257.35

S3: $1,256.75

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 26, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection was expressed on June 14.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7230 then 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) for a valid SELL position.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

On the other hand, risky traders can have a high-risk SELL entry at retesting of the price level of 0.7310. S/L should be placed above 0.7400.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 26, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where the price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recently, the price levels around 1.1280-1.1295 stood as an Intraday resistance where recent bearish movement was initiated.

The bearish pullback can extend towards 1.1110 and 1.1000 provided that the EUR/USD pair maintains trading below 1.1170 (currently being breached).

A bullish breakout above 1.1285 will be mandatory to pursue a further advance towards 1.1400.

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H4 Outlook

On May 30, a significant bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 1.1170 (lower Limit of the Wedge pattern in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci Level ).

On June 14, a significant bearish rejection was expressed around the depicted supply level 1.1280-1.1295 (the upper limit of the Wedge pattern).

This was followed by a bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the Wedge pattern as well.

Note that re-closure above 1.1200 (lower limit of the Wedge pattern and 61.8% Fibonacci correction) brings bullish pressure into the market again. This allows a further advance towards 1.1280 initially.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.1170 (lower limit of the Wedge pattern and 61.8% Fibonacci correction) will be needed to enhance a further decline towards 1.1110, 1.1050 and 1.0950.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 26, 2017

EUR/USD: The bias on EUR/USD has become neutral because the price made no significant moves last week. It was hovering between the support line at 1.1100 and the resistance line at 1.1250. There must be a movement above the mentioned resistance line or below the support line. A break above the resistance line is the most likely for this week.

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USD/CHF: This pair remains essentially in a bear market. The bearish signal that started in May 2017 is still in place, and further decline is anticipated, especially when EUR/USD goes upwards. The targets for this week are located at the support levels at 0.9650 and 0.9600.

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GBP/USD: This weak currency pair went downwards in the first few trading days last week to test the accumulation territory at 1.2600. After that it bounced upwards to close above the accumulation territory at 1.2700 on Friday. That upwards bounce could end up becoming a good opportunity to go short, because the market could turn downwards to test the accumulation territories at 1.2700, 1.2650 and 1.2600 this week (these are the targets since those accumulation territories were also previously tested last week). The outlook on GBP pairs remains bearish for the week.

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USD/JPY: This pair has become neutral, because the price could not continue going upwards to sustain the bullish signal which appeared on June 15. In fact, the price simply went sideways last week, preparing to break out upwards or downwards (downwards is more probable, because the outlook on JPY pair remains bearish for this week).

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross has been able to maintain the bullish bias that was started on June 15. The price tested the demand zone at 123.50, and then it was able to go above the demand zone at 124.50. This has revealed a bullish intention, and price could go further upwards. However, the upwards movement may not be so serious because of a possibility of a smooth bearish run before the end of the week.

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Global macro overview for 26/06/2017

Global macro overview for 26/06/2017:

The inflationary pressures in Canada are not rising fast enough. According to Statistics Canada report on Friday, Canadian consumer prices rose 0.1% in May following a 0.4% gain the previous month and lower than consensus forecasts of a 0.2% gain in the month. Moreover, the year-on-year rate declined to 1.3% from 1.6% and compared with expectations of a smaller decline in the rate of 1.5% for the month. The biggest increase was noted in food prices (0.6%), however, they still declined 0.1%. The biggest drop was noted on gasoline prices that fell 4.0%. The Bank of Canada CPI rate decreased from 1.6% to 1.5%, so it is still away from the Bank of Canada's inflationary target of 2.0%.

In its latest monetary policy statement, the Bank of Canada remained optimistic about the economic outlook and even started to consider whether all of the substantial monetary stimuli in the economy is still justified. This is why a rate hike by the end of this year remains on the table. The Bank has been holding rates at a record low of 0.50% since 2015 when it was forced to lower rates due to the sharp oil price fall. Currently, the CPI data will again ignite the speculation, whether any rate hike is still possible with the current low levels of inflation. If BoC does not hike at the next meeting in June, the Canadian dollar might depreciate even deeper across the board.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is trading sideways between the technical support at the level of 1.3222 and technical resistance at the level of 1.3309. Nevertheless, the most important levels for bulls and bears are the support at the level of 1.3165 and resistance at the level of 1.3408.

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Global macro overview for 26/06/2017

Global macro overview for 26/06/2017:

Today the US will release the Durable Goods Orders data at 12:30 PM GMT and market participants are expecting orders to decrease from 0.7% to 0.5% in May, marking the second straight monthly slide. The orders measured on the yearly basis are expected to remain moderately positive, posting a 4% increase. Manufacturing productivity in the US has been slowing in the recent months and today it is expected to resume a decline. Moreover, the sentiment data in the manufacturing sector has been weakening as well as the manufacturing PMI decreased to the eight-month low. However, the reading was still pretty solid at the level of 52.7, which is above the fifty level that separates expansion from contraction. The possible reason behind a slowdown in the manufacturing industry is a retail sales decrease, which may limit the growth of the employment as firms are forced to scale back hiring.

It is still too early to conclude, whether this decrease in manufacturing activity is just a seasonal factor, a noise or a start of something more worrying. There is still a chance for the US manufacturing output to increase later this year and the chance lies in the reforms pledged by Trump during the presidential campaign. He promised to increase the manufacturing output by opening more factories in the US than overseas, despite higher work costs. The results have been quite dissapointing so far, so perhaps this might be a reason why the manufacturing sector starts to struggle.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market still trades below the 50%Fibo at the level of 111.57 and above the 38%Fibo at the level of 110.92. In case of a bullish breakout, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 111.76 and in case of a bearish breakout, the next support lies at the level of 110.81.

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Trading plan for 26/06/2017

Trading plan for 26/06/2017:

The start of the week on the markets is quiet, which favors a day off from work in some Asian financial centers. The FX market is stable, EUR/USD is close to 1.1200, USD/JPY is trading around 110.30. Moderately bullish buyers are dominating the Asian stock markets. The market moving event is the rise of the oil price to the level of the mid-last week.

On Monday 26th of June, the event calendar is light in important economic releaes. Nevertheless, market participants will keep an eye on Ifo Sentiment data from Germany and during the US session, on Durable Goods Orders data.

EUR/USD analysis for 26/06/2017:

The Ifo Business Climate, Current Assesment, and Expectations data are scheduled for release at 08:00 am GMT. Market participants expect the sentiment to remain at the elevated levels. Germany's Ifo sentiment data are again on track to reaffirm the upbeat economic outlook. The Ifo Business Climate index is expected at the level of 114.7 points, a notch higher than the last month release of 114.6. The Ifo Current Assessment is expected at the level of 123.2, just as a month ago. On the other hand, Ifo Expectations index is expected to decline a notch, from 106.5 points to 106.4 points. In conclusion, the upturn in the German economy that began in 2013 is growing broader and gaining momentum, so today's update of survey data looks set to show that businesses are on board with that forecast.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price stays under the golden trend line resistance and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1211. The overall move so far looks sideways, but the momentum indicator is above the fifty level. The technical supports at the levels of 1.1130, 1.1108, and 1.1075 are the most important for bulls as any violation of this levels will open the road towards the support at the level of 1.1022 and gap between the levels of 1.0820 and 1.0730. The volatility at the beginning of the week is low, so continuation of the sideways move is expeced unless a way worse or better than expected data will trigger sudden moves in either direction.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil under important resistnace

The price of the Crude Oil has bounced from the technical support at the level of $42.01 and now is trading just below the important technical resistnace at the level of $43.74. The momenum indicator is slowly moving above the fifty level and stochastic is also bouncing from the oversold zone. Despite this positive signals, the move up does not look like an impressive rally, but more like a low volume test of the previous support, so sideways price action is expected here.

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Market Snapshot: German DAX index covers both gaps

The German DAX index has covered two gaps on its way down the level of 12,675 points and now is bouncing from the oversold market conditions on the hourly time frame. The key zone to the upsdie is the gray area between the level of 12,806 - 12,822 and any breakout higher would indicate an immediate test of the recent high at the level of 12,953.

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Fundamental Analysis of EURUSD for June 26, 2017

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Fundamental Analysis of EURUSD for June 26, 2017

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 26, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a break above minor resistance at 1.5504 as indication that wave ii/ has completed and wave iii/ higher to above 1.6237 is developing.

Short-term support is seen at 1.5279, which should to be able to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.5504 for a rally to 1.59314 and higher.

R3: 1.5633

R2: 1.5564

R1: 1.5504

Pivot:

1.5420

S1: 1.5331

S2: 1.5279

S3: 1.5255

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5446 with stop placed at 1.5246. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5504 and use the same stop at 1.5246.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 26, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for more upside towards 127.00 as the next upside target. In the short term, a break above minor resistance at 124.65 will confirm the expected rally higher towards 125.80 on the way higher to 127.00 and 133.34 as the next major upside targets.

Support is now seen at 124.33 and a break below here will delay the expected rally higher, but support at 123.79 should be able to protect the downside for the expected rally higher.

R3: 125.80

R2: 125.27

R1: 124.65

Pivot: 124.50

S1: 124.38

S2: 124.14

S3: 123.99

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.46 with stop placed at 123.55. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 124.65 and use the same stop.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 26, 2017

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair continues to rise from the level of 1.1184. It should be noted that the support is established at the spot of 1.1184 -1.1114, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart.
  • Since the trend is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend The price is likely to form a double bottom on the same time frame.
  • Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.1240.
  • So, buy above the level of 1.1240 with the first target at 1.1283 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.1350.
  • Also, notice that the level of 1.1350 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top.
  • However, it would also be safe to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set above the second resistance of 1.1106.
  • Otherwise, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.1184, a further decline to 1.1106 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 26, 2017

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Overview:

  • On the one-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair bullish trend from the support levels of 1.2680 and 1.2737. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.2737, which coincides with a ratio 38.2% of Fibonacci. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.2737. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.2737. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the level of 1.2737 with the first target at the level of 1.2782 (pivot). Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.2782. We should see the pair climbing towards the second resistance (1.2880) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.2680.
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Daily analysis of USDX for June 26, 2017

The index had a retracement during Friday's session and the support zone of 97.10 could be challenged in coming hours. We're still following the bullish idea for the US Dollar Index, as the price isn't so far from the 200 SMA area at H1 chart. If USDX manages to break above 97.43, then it can reach the 97.84 level. MACD indicator is turning flat, calling for sideways' price action in the short-term.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.43 / 97.84

H1 chart's support levels: 97.10 / 96.87

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.84, take profit is at 98.98 and stop loss is at 97.51.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 26, 2017

The pair consolidated its price action around the 200 SMA at H1 chart at the end of the week and it's looking for catalysts that help to push higher the price towards the resistance zone of 1.2826. However, as the bias is still bearish and pointing to the south, we could take this opportunity as a sell and eventually, GBP/USD could be back to test the support area of 1.2652.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2704 / 1.2826

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2652 / 1.2567

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2652, take profit is at 1.2567 and stop loss is at 1.2739.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for June 26, 2017

Recently USD/JPY has been in the corrective structure at the edge of breaking the resistance area of 111.60-112.20. There has been a good amount of volatility in the intraday charts which lead to small indecision candles in the daily chart. After the Federal Funds Rate hike to 1.25% from 1.00% USD has been observed to gain significantly over the JPY after a long selling streak in this pair. On the JPY side due to not so impressive economic reports, the currency has been weaker in comparison to USD which did affect the JPY gains in a macro perspective. Today we have Japanese BOJ Summary of Opinions which is expected to be a quite high impact as it includes the BOJ's projection of inflation and economic growth and it is the primary tool for BOJ to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors. Along with it, JPY SPPI report is going to be published today which is expected to be unchanged at 0.7%. On the USD side, today we have Core Durable Goods Orders report which is expected to show a rise to 0.4% from previous value of -0.5% and Durable Goods Orders is expected to show a less deficit at -0.5% which previously was at -0.8%. In the morning today, we have high impact JPY economic reports and at the closing hours we have USD economic reports which are expected to bring in a good amount of volatility in the market but USD is expected to have an upper hand over JPY due to high-impact economic reports in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing at the edge of the resistance area of 111.60-112.20. As the pair is in a corrective structure with no specific trend in place, a daily close above the resistance level of 112.20 will signal further bullish move in this pair with a target towards 114.00-50 area and if the price rejects off the resistance area of 111.60-112.20 with a daily close and remains below the resistance area then we will be looking forward to selling in this pair with a target towards 108.50 support level.

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Fundamental Analysis of EURUSD for June 26, 2017

EUR/USD is currently residing inside a corrective structure after the break above the resistance level of 1.1140. Recently due to mixed economic reports on the both currencies of the pair, the market is currently residing in a range of 1.1140 to 1.1280 area. Today we have EUR German Ifo Business Climate report to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 114.7 from previous value of 114.6 and German Buba Monthly report to be published which is expected to inject some volatility in the market as it contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint. On the USD side, today we have Core Durable Goods Orders report which is expected to show a rise to 0.4% from previous value of -0.5% and Durable Goods Orders report which is expected to show less deficit at -0.5% from the previous value of -0.8%. The USD reports are also expected bring in good volatility in the market today as the reports represent the activity of the manufacturing organization of the country. As of the current situation, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market today as both currencies have high impact economic events but EUR is expected to have an upper hand over USD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing just above the support level of 1.1140 since last week and as the price remains above the level the price is expected to proceed further up with a target towards the resistance area of 1.1280-1.1360. As the pair has been in a non-volatile bullish trend after the French Election took place further upward move is expected until the price reaches the resistance area. The bullish bias is expected to continue further until price breaks below 1.1140 with a daily close.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUDUSD for June 26, 2017

AUD/USD has shown a good amount of bullish pressure on Friday after bouncing off from the support area of 0.7500-50. AUD has been quite stronger recently due to positive Employment Change and Unemployment Rate report published recently along with Positive GDP report AUD has been dominating USD till date. Today we do not have any economic event on AUD side but tomorrow we have RBA Assist Gov. Debelle to speak about key interest rates and future policies of the country which is expected to be hawkish and we have Australian HIA New Home Sales report to be published on Thursday which is expected to show some growth over the previous value of 0.8%. On the USD side, today we have Core Durable Goods Orders report which is expected to be positive at 0.4% which previously was at -0.5% and Durable Goods Orders report which is expected to show less deficit at -0.5% which previously was at -0.8%. This economic report is one of the leading indicators of the economy as rising goods orders denotes to rising manufacturing activity in the country thus the development of the economy. To sum up, AUD has been quite dominating recently and with the high impact economic report on USD to be published today a good amount of volatility is expected but AUD is expected to gain further over USD in the coming days as of the recent economic events.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing just above the support area of 0.7500-50 along with 20 EMA holding the price as a dynamic support level as well. As the price remains above the support area, currently the price is expected to reach 0.7630 resistance level at first and if the price breaks above the 0.7630 resistance level with a daily close then we will be looking forward to further bullish move with a target towards 0.7750 resistance level. The bullish bias is going to continue until price breaks below 0.7500 with a daily close.

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