AUD / USD: Labor market pleased the Australian, the next stop is at 0.7060

The Australian labor market data released today has supported the Australian dollar. This allowed the AUD/USD bulls to remain within the 70th figure, although their position looks rather unstable. However, the price overcame the key resistance level at the end of last week, which allows the buyers to go further towards the borders of the 71st figure. So far, it's too early to talk about such price heights, given the wave-like interest of traders in the US currency and the ambiguous abstracts of the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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By the way, today's release is also ambiguous. The unemployment rate turned out to be at the forecast level of 5.2% and at this point, the indicator is already out for the third month in a row. I recall that at the beginning of the year unemployment was at the level of five percent. In February, it declined to 4.9% but then stabilized at around 5.2%. However, the increase in the number of employees came out in the "red zone". After substantial growth in May (+45 thousand) and rather weak forecasts for June (+9 thousand), the indicator showed a completely ugly result at first glance with the figure of +0.5 thousand. However, considering the structure of this indicator, we can conclude that not everything is so bad.

The fact is that the negative dynamics of employment growth was only due to the reduction in part-time employment. This component collapsed by 20.6 thousand but on the contrary, full employment showed a positive trend, rising by 21.1 thousand. This trend may have a positive impact on the dynamics of wage growth since full-time jobs tend to offer higher wages and a higher level of social security. The share of the economically active population was also at a fairly high level as the indicator remained at its annual maximum of 66%, repeating the success of the month before last.

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In addition to data on the labor market, other releases have helped the Australian dollar today. In particular, we are talking about the indicator of confidence in the business environment of NAB (National Australia Bank). According to experts of this largest Australian bank, consumer confidence increased by 6 points in the second quarter. This is despite the fact that the indicator has consistently and quite rapidly decreased over the past four quarters. Also, it turned out to be in the negative area in the first quarter of this year for the first time in many years. This result is due to the period of "thaw" in relations between the United States and China, as well as the significant increase in the commodity market, primarily, iron ore.

In general, the releases published today are positive. It is worth noting that under the current conditions each publication with a "plus sign" is important. By lowering the interest rate at the beginning of June (for the second time in half a year), the Reserve Bank of Australia made it clear that further steps by the regulator will depend on the incoming data, especially in the labor market. There is also no consensus among experts on the third rate cut before the end of this year. Therefore, the figures released today allow us to hope that the balance of the RBA will be inclined to the option of a waiting position.

Returning to the RBA protocol published last week, two nuances are worth noting. First, the regulator acknowledged that the effect of monetary policy easing "is unevenly spread across different households". Secondly, the Central Bank sees the need to improve the situation on the labor market primarily in the context of wage growth. All of these suggest that the next reduction in interest rates will be a difficult decision for the RBA given the presence of "side effects". While the growth of full employment in June is intended to correct the situation with a weak increase in wages towards improvement.

In other words, the Australian quite reasonably reacted to them with growth despite the apparent ambiguity of the figures published today. In addition, "Aussie" receives background support from the commodity market. The cost of iron ore is still above $120 per ton. Iron ore futures on the Dalian commodity exchange rose this week by 1.1% to 131.63 dollars per ton. Earlier this week, growth reached 3.3% and the price increased to a record high since December 2013. It is worth recalling that the mining sector in Australia is 10% of GDP, and the economic sectors that are associated with mining (where iron ore occupies a central place) account for another 9% of GDP.

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Thus, the AUD/USD pair quite "deservedly" consolidated within the 70th figure, although further growth (for the time being) is limited by the nearest resistance level of 0.7060, which is the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1). Further large-scale growth of the pair depends only on the behavior of the US currency, which as a result, depends on the next steps of the Fed and (possibly) the White House. Rumors that Donald Trump will decide on foreign exchange interventions are increasingly being discussed among experts. Hence, this scenario cannot be ruled out, especially if the Fed takes a "not enough dovish" position at its July meeting. The support level for the AUD/USD pair is the mark of 0.6940, which is the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart.

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Burning forecast 07/18/2019 EURUSD and trading recommendation

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The euro has been under pressure since the beginning of the week - because of the sellers who are attacking the British pound. News regarding the possible withdrawal of Britain from the EU without an agreement - caused a strong decline in the pound, and this dragged the euro down through the euro-pound.

But the fall of the pound stopped, and the euro immediately showed a rebound upwards.

Fed report "Beige Book" did not play a strong role.

EURUSD: Range.

From the point of view of technical analysis, you can buy when you break upwards 1.1290.

You can sell when you break down 1.1190.

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Trading plan for US Dollar Index for July 18, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index has dropped lower as expected and discussed earlier. It is seen to be trading close to 97.00 levels at this point in writing. Traders are expected to book short-term profits on short positions taken earlier. Looking into the wave structure, the rally from 95.80 through 97.60 levels turned out to be in 5 waves, hence another high above 97.60 remains a high probability. It remains to be seen if prices manage to push through higher levels from current price action or from 96.50 levels. Interim resistance is seen at 97.60 for now while support is seen strong at 96.00 levels respectively. Aggressive traders may want to remain short but please note to bring stop loss close to break even levels.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain short, bring stop close to break even.

Conservative traders take profits on short positions and remain flat.

Good luck!

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for July 18, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair managed to form an interim low at 1.1200 levels yesterday, pushing higher by 40 pips to 1.1240 highs. It would be a good idea to take short-term profits or to bring stop loss to breakeven point. The pair could reverse lower from the current price action at 1.1240 or 1.1320 as depicted on the 4H chart here. As labelled on the chart here, the drop from 1.1412 through 1.1193 was in 5 waves, labelled as Wave A or 1. The subsequent rally stalled at fibonacci 0.382 retracement. Besides, the back side of support turned into resistance trend line. It is more or less confirmed that prices are expected to print yet another low below 1.1193 levels going forward. It remains to be seen whether a top is formed at 1.1286 or yet another high is possible above that before reversing lower. Aggressive traders might want to hold long positions but at least to bring stop loss to breakeven levels. Conservative traders may want to stay aside and sell on rallies through higher levels.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders may hold long positions but bring stop to break even levels if possible.

Conservative traders take short term profit on long positions taken earlier and remain flat.

Good luck!

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Overview of EUR/USD on July 18th. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". An impeachment procedure was initiated against

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -29.2804

On Wednesday, July 17, the EUR/USD pair showed an upward movement with grief in half. The overall strengthening of the euro was about 30 points. It seems that traders have worked out a conditionally positive report on inflation in the European Union for June. At the moment, the euro/dollar pair has adjusted to the moving average line and cannot overcome it yet. The pair's rebound from the moving average can provoke a resumption of the downward movement, and overcoming it will give the bulls a chance to form an upward trend. From a fundamental point of view, Thursday is a very boring day, as no important macroeconomic events are planned for today. Meanwhile, a new scandal involving Donald Trump broke out in America. During one of the interviews, the US President allowed himself to speak unflattering about several democratic women in a racist context, for which he immediately received a portion of criticism. However, the procedure for the removal of the President from his post, initiated by a Congressman from Texas, was immediately blocked by the House of Representatives of the US Congress. Trump himself called this procedure "the funniest project in his life." Thus, traders still had two weak reasons to reduce the "dollar" position. Now, we are waiting for how the market will behave around the MA.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.1047

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has adjusted to the moving average. Now, therefore, it is recommended to wait for the price rebound from the moving and re-sell the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1169.

It is recommended to buy the euro in small lots if the bulls manage to consolidate above the moving average line, which will change the trend to the upward one, and the target, in this case, will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 18, 2019

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GBP/JPY has fulfilled our target at 124.50, but is still able to push lower, but we are now seeing the first signs of weakness and a possible bottom being in place shortly. The first sign of a low for wave 2 is a break above minor resistance at 134.62 and more importantly a break above resistance at 135.26.

That said, we also have to acknowledge, that as long as minor resistance at 134.62 is able to cap the upside we could see GBP/JPY move slightly lower admit a limited downside potential.

R3: 135.82

R2: 135.26

R1: 134.62

Pivot: 134.28

S1: 133.84

S2: 133.62

S3: 133.45

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 134.75

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 18, 2019

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EUR/JPY continues to take baby steps lower towards our ideal target at 120.62 to complete wave II and set the stage for a new impulsive rally for the weeks/months ahead.

Short-term minor resistance is seen at 121.52 and as long as this minor resistance and more importantly as long as resistance at 121.68 is able to cap the upside, we should push EUR/JPY lower towards the 120.62 target.

If, however resistance at 121.68 is broken that will indicate that wave III is developing and a rally to and above the 123.36 peak.

R3: 121.83

R2: 121.68

R1: 121.52

Pivot: 121.25

S1: 120.90

S2: 120.62

S3: 120.32

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a EUR-buying opportunity at 120.85 or upon a break above 121.68

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on July 18, 2019

EUR / USD pair

The correctional growth of the euro yesterday and today in the Asian session turned out to be stronger than our expectations. The increase was due to a decline in US construction data with 1.25 million y/y of houses were created in June against the forecast of 1.26 million and 1.27 million in May. Meanwhile, the number of permits issued for the construction of a new house was only 1.22 million against 1.30 million a month earlier.

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On the daily scale chart, the price is already close to the MACD blue indicator line. We believe that its current growth will be limited. As before, we are waiting for a price reduction to the signal level of 1.1193, the prospect of a mid-term decline opens for the euro after overcoming of the said level. Marlin oscillator is in the area of negative numbers.

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On the four-hour chart, the price went above the MACD line but two other indicators point to the continuing downward trend. This is the red balance line on the price chart with the quotes currently below it. The Marlin oscillator, whose signal line is developing in the zone of negative numbers.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 18/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The cryptocurrency exchange in the United States - Coinbase - suddenly imposed a minimum UK £ 1,000 deposit on account holders in the UK, which was confirmed by the company's staff in private e-mails.

Coinbase, which previously allowed UK users to deposit funds through the national Faster Payments payment system, has now suspended the service. Instead, users must use the standard international transfer option by sending funds via SWIFT, subject to a minimum payment of £ 1,000.

Coinbase support staff did not disclose in the e-mails the reasons for this sudden change, which ends the agreement in force since August last year

SWIFT payments usually last up to five business days, which in Great Britain gives you ten days' delay in making a deposit. This problem causes further complications for UK users seeking legal access to cryptocurrency markets.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced towards the level of $226.17 after the technical support located at the level of $190.94 has held the bearish pressure. The downward momentum is decreasing, so there is a chance for another leg up towards $226.17 or even $244.63. Please notice, that according to the Elliott wave count, the corrective cycle in the wave 2 might have been completed and the market is ready for another impulsive wave up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $421.78

WR2 - $368.25

WR1 - $298.00

Weekly Pivot - $241.50

WS1 - $169.20

WS2 - $118.90

WS3 - $41.01

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 18/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

France is ready to approve the first ICO operators and other cryptographic companies thanks to the new regulatory approach to the sector.

According to media reports, the new regulations - which are to come into force later this month - will allow companies involved in cryptography to voluntarily submit to national standards of capital requirements, consumer protection and taxation in exchange for the regulator's green light.

Anne Marechal - executive director of legal affairs at the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) - told reporters that a bold crypto-regulatory program should make France a forerunner in this field: "France is a precursor. We will have a legal, tax and regulatory framework [...] We are talking with three or four candidates for ICO "- she said.

In addition to ICO, AMF is in talks with several cryptographic platforms, depositaries and fund managers, revealed Marechal.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced higher towards the technical resistance located at the level of $9,913 as the wave B is unfolding. The Elliott wave count has been updated accordingly and now the preferred scenario is an ABC-X-ABC formation as the last leg of the wave Y. This means we might likely see one more leg to the downside as the bears are in full control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,838

WR2 - $13,876

WR1 - $11,942

Weekly Pivot - $11,071

WS1 - $9,127

WS2 - $8,276

WS3 - $6,180

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 18/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced again from the technical support located at the level of 1.1206, so the key support at the level of 1.1181 still has not been violated. The bounce is so far shallow and the price is still under the lower channel boundary. The bulls are testing the local technical resistance located at the level of 1.1237. Any failure here will lead to the reversal and another spike down towards the key technical support level.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1406

WR2 - 1.1342

WR1 - 1.1312

Weekly Pivot - 1.1251

WS1 - 1.1222

WS2 - 1.1157

WS3 - 1.1125

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to buy the corrections in anticipation of the uptrend to resume. This strategy is valid as long as the level of 1.1181 is clearly violated. The larget time frame trend is still down, but there are signs of the trend reversal and the Ending Diagonal breakout to the upside.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 18/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has violated the support and the new local low was made at the level of 1.2381 in oversold market conditions. This is also a new swing low at the higher time frame charts, so the breakout is very important as the downtrend continues. The next long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1983. The price is trying to bounce higher and currently is testing the level of 1.2439. If the bounce will be strong enough, there is a chance for an up move towards the level of 1.2480.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 12770

WR2 - 1.2670

WR1 - 1.2630

Weekly Pivot - 1.2528

WS1 - 1.2496

WS2 - 1.2396

WS3 - 1.2356

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support at the level of 1.2420 has been violated and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1983.

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Forecast for GBP/USD pair on July 18, 2019

GBP/USD pair

The British pound did not grow much yesterday against the background of a local weakening of the dollar. A strong downward trend is doing its job. On the daily chart, the price develops under the balance and MACD lines. The leading oscillator Marlin also indicates a decrease in movement in perspective. The target of 1.2296 for the pound as support for the nested line of the price channel is preserved.

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On the four-hour chart, the situation is similar. The price is in a completely downward trend and the possibility of correction is limited by the MACD line on the resistance of 1.2464. In reaching this level, the Marlin oscillator signal line will extend to the border with the growth zone, it will reach this level and a reversal may follow.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, July 18, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1281. Strong Resistance: 1.1275. Original Resistance: 1.1264. Inner Sell Area: 1.1253. Target Inner Area: 1.1227. Inner Buy Area: 1.1201. Original Support: 1.1190. Strong Support: 1.1179. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1173. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, July 18, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance and the US will publish some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.

3: 108.29. Resistance. 2: 108.08. Resistance. 1: 107.87. Support. 1: 107.60. Support. 2: 107.39. Support. 3: 107.18.(Disclaimer)

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on July 18, 2019

USD / JPY pair

Unfortunately, the USD/JPY pair was not able to maintain the upward potential created by convergence on the four-hour chart. On Tuesday's daily timeframe, the positive price balanced by the release of a white candle over the red indicator line of balance, which then returned to Wednesday declining mood. This morning, the price went deeper under both the balance line and the signal level 107.87. The reason for this movement was the decline in the stock market in the last two days. The yen, which correlates with it as a safe-haven currency, strengthened against the dollar. Marlin's oscillator signal line for daily is already in the zone of negative numbers. A further fall is possible to support the embedded line of the price channel in the area of 106.70.

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However, the probability of a reversal upwards remains on the four-hour chart. It may be due to double convergence in the Marlin oscillator. The signal line has a power reserve until it touches the generator line, which approximately has a depth of descent to 107.35 on the price chart. Therefore, the gray rectangular section on the graph is a free-walk zone. In this scenario, Marlin's decline in the negative zone on the daily chart will be interpreted as false. With the price leaving below the wandering zone, the level of 106.70 becomes the main target.

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EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal!

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EURUSD is approaching resistance where we might be seeing a reversal below this level.

Entry: 1.1244

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.1277

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal overlap resistance

Take Profit : 1.1194

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

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NZD/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal!

analytics5d2fedbe37ace.jpgPrice is approaching its resistance where it could reverse back down to its support.

Entry: 0.6766

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 0.6807

Why it's good : 61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 0.6701

Why it's good: 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support

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USDJPY broke support-turned-resistance, further drop!

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USDJPY broke support-turned-resistance at 107.81, further drop could occur!

Entry :107.81

Why it's good :

23.6% Fibonacci retracement

38.2% Fibonacci retracement

61.8% Fibonacci extension*2

horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit : 107.57

Why it's good :

100% Fibonacci extension

horizontal swing low support

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GBP / USD. July 17th. Results of the day. Holiday for the pound sterling. The day ended without loss.

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 77p - 74p - 60p - 67p - 125p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 81p (72p).

On Wednesday, July 17, the British pound sterling managed without loss against the US currency. Whether the traders are tired of selling the British currency, or decided to take profits on the "dollar" positions, or the market reacted to inflation in the UK, which in June was 2.0% in annual terms and 0.0% in the monthly, so fully consistent with the forecasts of experts. One way or another, the correction has begun for the pound / dollar pair. It is true that the balance of power between the US and UK currencies has not changed a bit. The British currency had a chance to go up when Jerome Powell hinted by all available means that the Fed rate would be lowered in an expected meeting which will be held on July 30-31. And there is no more reason for growth in the pound sterling. Only one factor can be a stretch to bring in a positive British currency. On July 23, the name of the new Prime Minister of the country and the leader of the Conservative Party will be known. It is true that there is every reason to expect no surprises and if Boris Johnson will become the prime minister. There is also every reason to expect that his rhetoric regarding Brexit will not change and he will struggle to push the only possible way out for the UK from the EU on October 31 - without a "deal". And what does it give to the pound sterling? Nothing. The "hard" scenario could hit the pound's position even more, since it means a crushing blow to the UK economy. Even Mark Carney, the head of the British regulator, spoke of this. So it turns out that the pound can only hope that the Fed will begin easing monetary policy at every meeting,

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair pound / dollar began an upward correction. Thus, traders are advised to wait for it to complete and trade again for a fall with the targets of 1.2391 and 1.2350.

It will be possible to buy the British currency after the pair is re-consolidated above the Kijun-Sen line, which will lead to a change of trend to ascending. The targets are the Senkou Span B line and the 1.2621 level.

The fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account in addition to the technical picture.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - red line.

Kijun-sen - blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 18

Forecast for July 18:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1283, 1.1251, 1.1233, 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1137 and 1.1116. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure on July 15. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown at 1.1195. In this case, the goal is 1.1169. Consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level 1.1169 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.1137. For a potential value at the bottom, we consider the level 1.1116, after reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.1233 - 1.1251. The breakdown of the last value will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.1283.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the bottom of July 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1335 Take profit: 1.1250

Buy 1.1253 Take profit: 1.1280

Sell: 1.1195 Take profit: 1.1170

Sell: 1.1167 Take profit: 1.1140

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2492, 1.2458, 1.2434, 1.2395, 1.2364 and 1.2337. Here, we are following the downward trend of July 12. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown at 1.2395. In this case, the target is 1.2364. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2337, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 1.2434 - 1.2458. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2492. This level is a key support for the downward structure of July 12.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2435 Take profit: 1.2457

Buy: 1.2460 Take profit: 1.2492

Sell: 1.2395 Take profit: 1.2365

Sell: 1.2362 Take profit: 1.2337

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9952, 0.9902, 0.9881, 0.9841, 0.9820, 0.9797 and 0.9779. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 0.9841. In this case, the goal is 0.9820. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to 0.9797. There is a potential value for the downward trend, while we consider the level of 0.9779, and upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Consolidated movement is possible in the corridor 0.9881 - 0.9902. We expect the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle to the level of 0.9902.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of July 9, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9881 Take profit: 0.9902

Buy : 0.9910 Take profit: 0.9950

Sell: 0.9840 Take profit: 0.9822

Sell: 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9797

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.42, 108.12, 107.94, 107.58, 107.41, 106.98 and 106.68. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 107.58 - 107.41. In this case, the goal is 106.98. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 106.68. From which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 107.94 - 108.12. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.42. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend: the downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.94 Take profit: 108.12

Buy : 108.14 Take profit: 108.40

Sell: 107.40 Take profit: 107.00

Sell: 106.96 Take profit: 106.70

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3141, 1.3105, 1.3090, 1.3041, 1.3016, 1.3001, 1.2964 and 1.2937. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown level at 1.3041. In this case, the first goal is at level 1.3016. The price passage within the noise range 1.3016 - 1.3001 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2964. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2937, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The range 1.3090 - 1.3105 is a key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3141.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3105 Take profit: 1.3140

Sell: 1.3041 Take profit: 1.3016

Sell: 1.3000 Take profit: 1.2965

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7111, 0.7091, 0.7063, 0.7050, 0.7030, 0.7013, 0.6991 and 0.6969. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 10. The resumption of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 0.7030. In this case, the first target is 0.7050. Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 0.7050 - 0.7063. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 0.7091. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 0.7111, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 0.7013 - 0.6991. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 0.6969.

The main trend - the rising structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7030 Take profit: 0.7050

Buy: 0.7063 Take profit: 0.7090

Sell : 0.7011 Take profit : 0.6993

Sell: 0.6988 Take profit: 0.6972

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.66, 121.35, 121.18, 120.92, 120.62, 120.48, 120.14 and 119.91. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 120.90. In this case, the target is 120.62. Price consolidation is in the corridor 120.62 - 120.48. The breakdown of the level of 120.46 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 120.14. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 119.91, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 121.18 - 121.35. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.66. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.18 Take profit: 121.33

Buy: 121.37 Take profit: 121.66

Sell: 120.90 Take profit: 120.62

Sell: 120.46 Take profit: 120.14

analytics5d2fd1c8c1a46.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.04, 134.70, 134.44, 133.56, 133.24 and 132.91. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure from July 9, and at the moment we expect a movement to the level of 133.56. The breakdown of this value will allow us to expect a movement to the level of 133.24, near which, we expect consolidation. We consider the level 132.91 to be a potential value for the bottom. And after reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 134.44 - 134.70. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 135.04. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.45 Take profit: 134.65

Buy: 134.72 Take profit: 135.04

Sell: 133.50 Take profit: 133.25

Sell: 133.20 Take profit: 132.91

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 18, 2019. Analysis of

Minuette (H4)

Let us consider the comprehensive options for the development of the AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX movement from July 18, 2019 in the Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame).

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US Dollar Index

On July 18, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :

- resistance level of 97.50 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);

- support level of 97.20 (1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operating scale).

The breakdown of the support level of 97.20 (1/2 Median Line Minuette) will cause the downward movement of the dollar index to continue to the targets - the initial SSL line (97.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (96.90) of the Minuette operational scale - local minimum 96.75 - and as an option - to reach the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (96.20).

In case of the breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 97.50), the development of the #USDX movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (97.50 - 97.63 - 97.80) of the Minuette operational scale, and if ISL61.8 Minuette (97.80) will be broken down, then it would be important to continue the upward movement of the dollar index to the final Schiff Line Minuette (98.00), with the prospect of reaching the final FSL Minuette line (98.35).

The details of the options for movement #USDX on July 18, 2019 are presented at the animated graphics.

analytics5d2f338e22018.jpg

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD from July 18, 2019 will be determined by the working out and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel borders (0.7000 - 0.7015 - 0.7040) of the Minuette operating scale.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 0.7040) will determine the development of the AUD / USD movement in the equilibrium zone (0.7040 - 0.7060 - 0.7085) of the Minuette operating scale with the prospect of reaching the final Schiff Line Minuette (0.7100).

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel ( support level of 0.7000), the operational scale of the Minuette operational scale fork will become topical for the Australian dollar to reach the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6985 - 0.6965 - 0.6940) of the Minute operating scale with the possibility of updating the minimum of 0.6912.

The details of the options for the movement of AUD / USD from July 18, 2019 can be seen at the animated graphics.

analytics5d2f33a969679.jpg

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New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar

The development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD from July 18, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :

- resistance level of 0.6725 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);

- support level of 0.6710

The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6725 (ISL38.2 Minuette) will confirm the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar in the equilibrium zone (0.6725 - 0.6755 - 0.6785) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the possibility of reaching the final FSL line (0.6845) of the Minuette operational scale.

On the other hand, in the event of the breakdown of the support level of 0.6710, the movement of the NZD / USD will continue to the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6710 - 0.6688 - 0.6666) Minuette operational scale fork with the possibility of the continuation of this movement (after the breakdown of the support level of 0.6666) is already in the zone of equilibrium (0.6688 - 0.6640 - 0.6595) Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the options for the movement of NZD / USD from July 18, 2019 are presented at the animated graphics.

analytics5d2f33c9a9ccd.jpg

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US Dollar vs Canadian dollar.

Range Breakdown Direction :

- resistance level of 1.3085 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale);

- support level of 1.3050 (boundary of the red zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);

will begin to determine the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD from July 18, 2019.

After the support level of 1.3050 breaks down at the boundary of the Minuette operational scale fork, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar will continue to the goals - local minimum 1.3017 - control line LTL (1.2985) of the Minuette operational scale - warning line LWL38.2 (1.2915) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

As a result of the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3085, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.3085 - 1.3115 - 1.3140), and during the breakdown of the upper boundary (1.3140) of this channel, it will be possible to reach the boundaries of the equilibrium zone of USD / CAD (1.3165 - 1.3215 - 1.3260) Minuette operating scale.

The details of the options for the movement of USD / CAD from July 18, 2019 can be seen at the animated graphics.

analytics5d2f33eb188aa.jpg

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The review was compiled without regard to the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders " sell " or " buy ").

The formula for calculating the dollar index is

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The decrease in USD rates is decided, but what do they think on Wall Street?

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The response of the market to the strong US retail sales was negligible; traders preferred to focus on the next comments of the Fed. Therefore, on Wednesday, the dollar was only able to fix the growth of the previous session just above the level of 97.

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Speaking in Paris, Jerome Powell intervened in market expectations again, hinting at the risks of lowering inflation expectations, which requires a more flexible policy adjustment from officials. At the same time, the Federal Reserve persists in ignoring traditional fundamental data, showing its concern with leading indicators. After Powell's speech on Tuesday, the odds of a 50 bps rate cut increased to 31%. At the same time, the head of the Central Bank was able to convince the market that the Central Bank would be able to stimulate inflation, since the market metrics of inflationary expectations turned into growth from the end of June.

Thus, pressure on the American economy comes from trade relations with partners. Inflation expectations declined after the announcement of an increase in tariffs for Chinese goods. Powell has pointed out on this for more than once. It cannot be ruled out that the reaction of inflation expectations to the bottom was a "foresight" of the new cycle of mitigation of policy in response to the escalation of tariff tension. In this case, the Central Bank is led, as it responds to a false signal and ignores strong economic reports.

Be that as it may, it is difficult to consider a reduction in the rate of half a percent at once as a reasonable precautionary measure. The labor market and retail volume are growing quite confidently.

Next week, the ECB is expected to give a strong stimulus signal, which will reduce the risks of a further slowdown in growth abroad. This is one of the reasons for the Fed's concerns, along with the trade war. Friday's report on US GDP may contain a positive surprise, at least there are prerequisites for this. In this scenario, traders are unlikely to sell dollars.

Estimates and expectations of the world's largest banks about the Fed rate cut

The Goldman Sachs are waiting for the reduction of 25 basis points in July and another by the same amount until the end of this year. A similar opinion is shared by experts JPMorgan.

Everyone understands that the Fed is set to soften the policy in July, they write. The situation in the world remains alarming, business sentiment continues to deteriorate, and deflation signals from a slowdown in producer price pressure put pressure on corporate profits. The combination of these factors has a negative effect on the increase in capital expenditures in the world.

Representatives of Morgan Stanley and UBS predict an aggressive policy easing - immediately by 50 basis points without an additional reduction before the end of the year. In their opinion, the current situation requires decisive action. Over the past 12 months, the global economy has noticeably slowed down, aided by trade conflicts. US GDP also risks slowing growth.

Citigroup, on the other hand, forecasts a quarter percent decline in July and the same in September. According to them, a decrease of 25 basis points is a kind of compromise on the committee. Although, it is possible that some officials will vote to reduce by 50 basis points.

There is a consensus in Bank of America and Barclays. Jerome Powell made it clear that at the next meeting, the rate will be reduced regardless of statistics, they comment. The cost of lending will decline by at least 0.25% in July and another 0.5% by the end of the year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com