Overview of the foreign exchange market on 11/23/2018

While Americans cut a festive turkey on the occasion of Thanksgiving, events of a truly epic scale unfolded in Europe. The main news was the message that the United Kingdom and the European Union signed, in fact, an agreement of intent regarding the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from a European Union. Although the paper is only a political declaration and does not contain any specifics, the market took this news extremely positively, which is perfectly seen in the example of the pound was growing rapidly. Specifically, the negotiators came to an agreement, which is a roadmap for further action. Now all countries participating in the negotiation process must approve this agreement and begin to agree on specific items and provisions. Supposed to that it will take another twenty one month. But given the content of the signed agreement, the growth of the pound was caused exclusively by emotions. The fact is that there is not a single word about the duty-free trade. Many beautiful words about the need to address issues on Gibraltar and the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. But not a hint of what the structure of trade relations between Great Britain and the European Union will be and this question is the most important. The economic future of the United Kingdom depends on it. Hence on Sunday, when the agreement is scheduled to be reviewed by the heads of the European Union countries and, apparently, by the British Parliament, anything can be expected. There is a high probability that a uniform scandal on this issue will happen in the British Parliament.

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Against this background, the publication of the text of the minutes of the last meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank turned out to be almost unnoticed but it was largely because of him that the single European currency could not take advantage of the positive news from Brexit. The fact is that in the text of the protocol, investors did not see the most important thing, namely, indications of the fate of the quantitative easing program. After all, according to Mario Draghi during the December meeting, a decision should be made to stop the operation of the printing press but there were a lot of words about the risks that cast doubt on further economic growth. We can assume if we recall that Italy is still confronting the European Commission about the budget deficit.

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It is obvious that after such high-profile statements on Brexit, many politicians will take a pause to consider their next steps. This is especially true of the British parliamentarians. So all attention to preliminary data on indices of business activity, especially since the forecasts are rather strange. In particular, it is expected that the US business activity index in the manufacturing sector will remain unchanged and in the services sector, it should grow from 54.8 to 54.9. With such forecasts, it is strangely expected that the composite index of business activity will grow from 54.9 to 56.0 given that the share of the services sector in the structure of the American economy is four times more than production. It would be worth waiting for a more modest growth. So there is a high probability that the data will be worse than expected.

Indeed, there are similar data in Europe and for them, forecasts are somewhat different but more real. f the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the service sector remains unchanged, it should be reduced from 53.7 to 53.5 and waiting in the end for the reduction of the composite index of business activity from 53.1 to 53.0. Even if the forecasts for the US are not confirmed, the data will most likely still show an increase in the indices, so that the single European currency will have to fall to 1.1375.

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A pound clearly suggests a pullback and today, it is extremely likely to occur, especially when many market participants decide to re-read the content of the signed agreement again and do not find in it the most important thing. Thus, it is possible the decline of the pound to 1.2825.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 23. The pound will be waiting for signing of declaration this weekend.

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound buyers failed to continue yesterday's upward trend, having not consolidated above 1.12880 in the first half of the day, which led to a decrease in the pound. Only the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2835 will be a signal to buy GBP/USD pair but a more visible option for opening long positions is in the area of 1.2785-1.2780. The task remains to be a breakthrough and consolidation above 1.2880, which will lead to the formation of an uptrend. Given the fact that the weekend is expected to sign the declaration proposed yesterday by Donald Tusk, it is unlikely the big players will try to change the situation before the market closes before the weekend.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears have rested now at 1.2835, and its breakdown will lead to a further decline in GBP/USD pair with access to the lower border of the side channel 1.2787, where I recommend taking profits. In case of growth above resistance 1.2880 in the second half of the day, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a new high of 1.2962.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

The Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands indicator indicates a decrease in volatility and does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 23. The bulls retreated before the weekend

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Buyers failed to cope with the resistance of 1.1424 in the first half of the day, which led to the expected downward correction of the euro and, quite likely, to the resumption of the downward trend. In the current situation, it is best to take a closer look at purchases after updating the minimum around 1.1335 or open long positions immediately to the rebound from 1.1296. The main task for the second half of the day will be the return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1382, which only recently served as a support role. Yet, this will not particularly affect the situation with further sales of EUR / USD.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears coped with the morning task and broke through below the support of 1.1382, which will allow them to resume the downward trend in the euro. The main goal for the second half of the day will be to update the minimum of 1.1334, where today I recommend fixing the profit. In the event of a breakthrough in this area of support, we can expect further decline of EUR / USD in the area of 1.1296. In the case of the euro growth scenario, you can count on short positions from resistance 1.1382.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved below the 30-day and 50-day averages, indicating a resumption of the euro decline.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Simplified wave analysis of GOLD for the week of November 23

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The rising wave of August 16 sets the direction of price movement and has not yet been completed.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The downward stretch of October 15 in the larger wave of H4 took the place of correction (B). The wave is fully formed.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

The wave level of the price rise that began on November 13 over time will move to the timeframe of the movement. In the coming days, a price correction is expected to come in the form of "outset".

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Recommended trading strategy:

In the coming weeks, the price growth is expected, which supporters of the inter-day trading style can take advantage of. Conditions for entry into transactions on longer sections of the schedule have not yet been created.

Resistance zones:

- 1255.0 / 1260.0

Support areas:

- 1215.0 / 1210.0

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Trading Plan 11/23/2018

Trading Plan 11/23/2018

On Thursday, the pound showed strong growth on the message that the EU and Britain reached an agreement on relations after Brexit and even signed a declaration.

This is the great success of British Prime Minister Theresa May and now her chances of reaching an agreement on her own terms have increased markedly.

The rest of the market is calm amid low trading volumes after Thanksgiving Day in the USA and before the weekend.

Thanksgiving is the day of the USA and before the weekend.

Pound: An upward movement is more likely to happen now.

We are ready to buy from 1.2930.

Alternative: Sell from 1.2720.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for GBP / USD pair on November 23, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price will move up with the first target of 1.2910 on 21 average of EMA (black thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price will move up with the first target of 1.2910 on 21 average of EMA (black thin line).

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The euro will continue to fall on fears of economic growth. Dollar in stagnation

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The euro fell by almost half a percentage point on Friday after the publication of data that showed that economic growth in the region may slow down.

Against the euro plays a decline in business activity in the eurozone. In addition, the fall accelerates the ongoing trade war. The growth of the private sector in Germany has slowed to the lowest level in the last four years, as exports have plunged in Europe's largest economy. All this will be of interest to the ECB, which is expected to close its asset purchase program next month. If we add here another budget dispute with Rome, then the conclusion is the only one, the environment for the euro is becoming more hostile.

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The eurozone economy has weakened significantly in recent months, and if this is not a temporary downturn, then the ECB will have to continue to adhere to the expansionary monetary policy. Of the positive factors for the euro and pound, the main one is the draft text of the agreement, which was agreed by the United Kingdom and the European Commission. However, EU leaders still have to ratify the agreement at the summit on Sunday, and Prime Minister Theresa May will then have to conduct a deal through a deeply divided British parliament.

The weakness of the euro supported the dollar, which fell during two consecutive trading sessions. Further growth of the American currency is holding back growing skepticism regarding the pace of interest rate increases in the Fed in the future. Most likely, the dollar will remain in a narrow range in the run-up to a meeting between American and Chinese leaders at the G20 summit in Argentina at the end of the month, and the markets will monitor any signs of whether they will agree to de-escalate a trade war.

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Brent price fell below $ 61 per barrel for the first time since November 2017

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Brent oil continues its decline, resuming the "bearish" trend and losing 3.5% of its value. Commodity asset quotes fell to $ 60.30 a barrel for the first time since November 2017. In just a week, Brent fell by 9%. The cost of WTI crude oil lost 4.16%, falling to $ 52.34 a barrel.

Analysts expect a further collapse in prices, as quotes during the day fell below the support level of 38.2% Fibonacci ($ 62.27 per barrel), which is a signal of further price reduction.

There are several pressure factors on Brent quotes. First, it is the nervousness of the market on the eve of the OPEC meeting in early December. Market participants do not receive specific signals from the organization about future plans to reduce oil production in 2019, which leads to sales in the oil market.

Secondly, Donald Trump's statements regarding relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia also put pressure on the oil rate. The American president said he did not intend to end successful partnerships with Riyadh and plans to further reduce the cost of oil on world markets with the help of the Saudis.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 23

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we expect the movement to the level of 1.1315. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the price has issued a local structure for the top of November 21. For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the expressed initial conditions for the top, we expect to the level of 1.0013. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen price, the forms the potential for the top of November 20. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the situation is in equilibrium and the resolution of which is expected after the breakdown of 127.95. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure and forms the potential for the top of November 20.

Forecast for November 23:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1430, 1.1403, 1.1372, 1.1352, 1.1315, 1.1289, 1.1271 and 1.1244. Here, we expect a move to the level of 1.1315. The breakdown of which, in turn, will lead to the movement to the level of 1.1289 and in the range of 1.1289 - 1.1271 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1244, from which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1352 - 1.1372 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1403 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.1430.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1352 Take profit: 1.1370

Buy 1.1374 Take profit: 1.1401

Sell: 1.1312 Take profit: 1.1290

Sell: 1.1270 Take profit: 1.1245

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2989, 1.2936, 1.2886, 1.2827, 1.2792, 1.2792, 1.2729, 1.2691 and 1.2603. Here, the price forms a local structure for the top of November 21. The continuation of the movement upward, we expect after the breakdown of 1.2886. In this case, the goal is 1.2936. The potential value for the uptrend, for now, is considered the level of 1.2989, before which we expect pronounced initial conditions.

The range of 1.2827 - 1.2792 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to develop a downward trend. Here, the first goal is 1.2729 and in the range of 1.2729 - 1.2691 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2603.

The main trend is the local rising structure of November 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2888 Take profit: 1.2934

Buy: 1.2937 Take profit: 1.2986

Sell: 1.2825 Take profit: 1.2793

Sell: 1.2790 Take profit: 1.2730

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0013, 0.9985, 0.9959, 0.9943, 0.9923, 0.9909 and 0.9885. Here, the price is in the correction of the downward structure of November 13. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9923 - 0.9909. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 0.9885, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The level of 0.9985 is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead to a short-term uptrend. Here, the goal is 1.0013, up to this level, we expect registration of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 13, the stage of prolonged correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9985 Take profit: 1.0010

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9923 Take profit: 0.9910

Sell: 0.9907 Take profit: 0.9887

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.02, 113.82, 113.48, 113.19, 112.82, 112.61, 112.37, 112.10, 111.91 and 111.50. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of potential for the top of November 20. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 113.19 - 113.48 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 113.82. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 114.02, after reaching which we expect consolidation in the range of 113.82 - 114.02.

The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 112.35. In this case, the goal is 112.10 and in the range of 112.10 - 111.91 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 111.50, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend: the formation of potential for the top of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.20 Take profit: 113.45

Buy: 113.52 Take profit: 113.80

Sell: 112.80 Take profit: 112.64

Sell: 112.58 Take profit: 112.40

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3389, 1.3361, 1.3317, 1.3268, 1.3243, 1.3181, 1.3142 and 1.3116. Here, the price is in deep correction from the local ascending structure on November 16 and has issued a pronounced potential for the downward movement of November 20. The development of the downward structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.3181. Here, the first target is 1.3142. For now, the potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3116, after reaching which we expect consolidation.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3243 - 1.3268 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to develop an upward trend. In this case, the first target is 1.3317 and this level is the key resistance for the subsequent development of the ascending structure on the H1 scale.

The main trend is the local cycle of November 16, the formation of the potential for the downward movement of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3243 Take profit: 1.3265

Buy: 1.3272 Take profit: 1.3312

Sell: 1.3180 Take profit: 1.3145

Sell: 1.3138 Take profit: 1.3118

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7287, 0.7254, 0.7194, 0.7169, 0.7148 and 0.7095. Here, we are following the formation of the potential for the downward cycle of November 16. At the moment, the price is close to the key support of 0.7287. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7194. In this case, the target is 0.7169 and in the range of 0.7169 - 0.7148 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7148 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.7095, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The breakdown of the level of 0.7290 will lead to the formation of an ascending structure. In this case, the first potential target is 0.7337.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of November 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7295 Take profit: 0.7330

Buy: 0.7256 Take profit: 0.7285

Sell: 0.7192 Take profit: 0.7170

Sell: 0.7144 Take profit: 0.7100

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.23, 127.98, 127.22, 126.95 and 126.41. Here, the price canceled the development of the ascending structure of November 20 and we expect to move downwards with the subsequent formation of the initial conditions for the downward cycle. The passage of the range of 129.00 - 129.17 will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 129.63.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.23 - 127.98. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 127.22 and in the range of 127.22 - 126.95 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.41.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 127.93 Take profit: 127.30

Sell: 122.20 Take profit: 126.95

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 146.65, 145.71, 145.00, 143.41, 142.51 and 141.28. Here, we are following the downward cycle from November 8. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone and in the range of 143.41 - 142.51, we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 141.28, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 145.00 - 145.71 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 146.65 and this level is the key support for the downward movement.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 8, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.00 Take profit: 145.66

Buy: 145.74 Take profit: 145.65

Sell: 143.40 Take profit: 142.60

Sell: 142.45 Take profit: 141.35

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 23, 2018

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On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted demand-zone of (1.2850-1.2780) where slight bullish recovery towards 1.2980 (key-level) was overpowered by quick bearish decline towards 1.2720 on November 15.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2980 (key-level for the short-term scenario). Moreover, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price zone around 1.2780.

Early signs of bullish recovery are manifested on the H4 chart. A double-bottom reversal pattern is about to be confirmed.

Bullish persistence above the price zone of 1.2870 (neckline of the reversal pattern) is needed to allow another bullish movement to occur towards 1.2980 and probably 1.3100 where the depicted daily downtrend comes to meet the pair.

On the other hand, bearish decline below 1.2780 invalidates the bullish scenario allowing further bearish decline towards 1.2700 and 1.2670.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for EUR / USD pair on November 23, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, it is possible to continue the upward movement, with the first goal of the recoil level 38.2% at 1.1447 (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, it is possible to continue the upward movement, with the first goal of the recoil level 38.2% at 1.1447 (blue dotted line).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 23, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish movement is maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Quick bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.1420. To be noted that prominent supply zone as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 enhances further bullish movement towards 1.1520 and probably 1.1600 where the upper limit of the daily channel comes to meet the EUR/USD pair.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped below 1.1400 within a narrow price range (1.1275-1.1400) until breakout occurs in either directions.

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EUR Bad news: ECB may revise its monetary policy

Yesterday's news on the eurozone and low market volatility did not lead to serious changes due to the celebration of Thanksgiving Day in the USA. Although, they put some pressure on risky assets. In general, the picture in EURUSD remains the same.

The publication of the minutes in October meeting of the European Central Bank led to a slight pressure on the euro, which was supported by a weak report on consumer confidence in the eurozone.

As the data showed, the European Central Bank may lower its growth forecasts for the eurozone economy in the next meeting, which may significantly affect the regulator's plans to tighten monetary policy next year.

Let me remind you that at the end of this year, as early as next month, the Central Bank will curtail its program of buying bonds of 2.6 trillion euros, known as quantitative easing. This will be the first step towards the start of a series of interest rate increases in the eurozone. However, the recent problems with Italy and the slowdown in economic growth, along with inflation remains within the limits of permissible, can all lead to a revision of more aggressive steps in policy changes by the European Central Bank.

Despite the likelihood of a revision of the forecast, the protocols say that the ECB leaders still agreed that the eurozone economy continues to grow, but the process of folding QE will depend on the incoming data.

A report was published yesterday afternoon, indicating that European consumers were less optimistic about their prospects. This is connected with the same signs of the recent slowdown in the eurozone economy.

According to the European Commission, the indicator of consumer confidence fell to -3.9 points in November of this year against -2.7 points in October. Economists had expected the index to drop to -3.0 points.

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Despite this, as noted in the report, the indicator remains above its long-term average. This suggests that households are optimistic about their future.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it remained unchanged.

Upward potential is limited by intermediate resistance in the area of 1.1425 and a breakthrough of which will lead to the return of the trading instrument to the maximum of this week in the area of 1.1470. In the case of a break of support at 1.1380, the pressure on risky assets will increase, which will lead EUR/USD pair to the minimum of the week and update them in the 1.1340 and 1.1300 areas.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 23, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 1.2890 towards 1.2780. Now, the price is set at 1.2850.

On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2890 and 1.3001. Volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still expected to be moving between 1.2829 and 1.2725 in coming hours. In the short term, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2725 to form a bullish channel. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 1.2829, while immediate resistance is found at 1.2829.

According to the previous events, the pair is likely to move from 1.2725 towards 1.2829 and 1.2890 as targets.

In the H4 time frame: However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2890, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2890. So, the market will decline further to 1.2725 in order to return to the daily support.

Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2639.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 23, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 1.3159.

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3134. The pair rose from the level of 1.3134 (the level of 1.3134 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3160. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3134 followed by 1.3105, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3183. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3134 and 1.3262; for that we expect a range of 128 pips (1.3262 - 1.3134). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3183, which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3183, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 1.3262 to test the double top on the H1 chart. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3105.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 23, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, BTC has traded downwards. As I expected, the price reached my yesterday's target at $4.032. Anyway, most recently I have found that rejection from the support at $4.032 and the BTC is now in the upward correction phase. My advice is still to watch for selling opportunities but wait for the breakout of the support to confirm further downward continuation. The short – term trend is bearish and my advice is to go with the direction of the trend. The downward target i set at the price of $3.257.

Support/Resistance

$4.323 – Intraday resistance

$4.032– Intraday support

$3.257 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 23, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1364. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found the breakout of the upward trendline and a double top formation in the background, which is a ign that sellers are in control. The price also rejected from the upper Keltner band (resistance), which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1323 and at the price of 1.1255.

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In November, the sale of the dollar against the EM currency brought traders unexpectedly high profits.

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Traders who are not afraid of a collapse in emerging markets, unexpectedly were rewarded this month, reports Bloomberg.

In November, the index, calculated by the agency and reflecting the return on the carry-trade operations with the currencies of eight developing countries against the dollar, rose by 3.2%.

"Carry traders buying high-yielding currencies of developing countries were surprised to find a big profit. If such dynamics continue, then this month will be the best for the "carry" from January," reports Bloomberg.

On the whole, it is difficult to say that the current year is favorable for EM currencies, but the Fed's only hint that it may pause the rate increase next year seems to have prompted investors to reconsider their views on emerging markets and pay attention to the most depreciated assets. It is noteworthy that the leaders of the November growth are just such outsiders as the South African rand, Turkish lira, and the Indonesian and Indian rupees.

The currencies of developing countries also received support from falling oil prices, which was painful for many investors, but not for the largest importers in the EM segment, such as India, Turkey, and Indonesia. After all, most of the year, these countries suffered from a strong dollar, along with the rising cost of energy. Now, the importers have the opportunity to exchange smaller amounts of local currency for dollars to buy the same amount of black gold.

In addition, cheapening oil contributes to relieving pressure on central banks in the developing world. It is possible that the South African and Indian Central Bank may move to a more neutral tone in monetary policy if the exchange rates of these countries remain relatively stable.

The positive attitude towards the currencies of the EM is also associated with a possible mitigation of trade conflicts in the world. Next week in Argentina at the G-20 summit, there should be a meeting of the leaders of the United States and China, at which they can reach trade agreements. However, if the negotiations fail, the currencies of developing countries have every chance to resume the decline.

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Decline in US manufacturing performance will put pressure on the dollar

Against the backdrop of the ongoing Thanksgiving Day holiday in the States, activity in world markets will most likely be limited and today there will be a short day on this occasion.

Today, the markets will continue to closely follow the development of events around Brexit, which has tired out investors given by its continuous uncertainty. British Prime Minister Theresa May is optimistic in addressing this issue, but markets doubt that she will be able to get out of the EU with favorable conditions for Foggy Albion, which could lead to serious economic losses in the future.

In addition, the focus of the trade war between Washington and Beijing remains in the focus of the market. Investors still hope that at the summit in Buenos Aires, which will be held on November 30 and December 1, a new trade agreement will be reached. It is expected to put a stop to the decline in the growth of the economies of the USA and China. If this does not happen, the new trade duties declared by the Americans will come into effect at the beginning of the new 2019, which were adopted in the middle of this year and were postponed until its end. Of course, one should, in this case, expect a response from Beijing, which will only lead to an escalation of the conflict and become the main cause of the slowdown in the global economy with all the ensuing negative consequences for stock markets. In this situation, we should expect a resumption of demand for defensive assets.

Today, attention should be given to the publication of German GDP data for the 3rd quarter, as well as the values of business activity indices in this country, the eurozone, and the States, as well as the figures for consumer inflation in Canada.

It can be assumed that if the data from the United States turns out to be weaker than forecast, this could have a negative impact on the dollar, which is still under pressure on the wave of rising expectations that the Fed may pause in raising interest rates early next year.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating above 1.1370 in the wake of the general weakness of the dollar. On the contrary. If the data from Germany and the eurozone turn out to be weaker and positive and from the USA, this can support the pair and lead to its growth to 1.1475.

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The USD/CAD pair is trading above 1.3170, remaining in the short-term uptrend. She ignores the fall in oil prices. If the data on consumer inflation in Canada does not show additional growth, and oil quotes continue to decline further, there is a chance that the pair will turn and grow to 1.3300.

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European currency increases in price moderately

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On Friday, November 23, experts fix the gradual rise in the price of the single European currency in relation to the US, which lasted for two trading sessions.

According to analysts, the moderate strengthening of currencies such as the euro and the British pound contributed to the signals of a possible compromise between the UK and the European Commission on further relations after Brexit. It is expected that the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU will be the main topic at the upcoming Sunday summit of European leaders.

Experts note that the appreciation of the European currency and other funds was not ubiquitous. The reason for this is that they consider the current uncertainty in the Brexit questions. At this stage, the American currency has no motivation for growth, although in the preceding weeks the US dollar strengthened significantly. Experts are confident that the prospect of a Fed rate hike in December of this year was laid in the dynamics of the American currency. They pay attention to the movement of the EUR / USD pair, predicting its further strengthening.

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International trade is in the ring of restrictions

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According to the monitoring report of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the restrictive measures taken by the G-20 countries from May to October 2018 affect international trade in excess of $ 481 billion a year.

According to experts, this amount is six times higher than the previous figure and is considered the largest since 2012. Recall that six years ago, the WTO began to conduct a quantitative assessment of trade restrictions.

According to Roberto Azevedo, Director General of the WTO, the information provided should be taken into account by the authorities of the G20 countries and the entire international community. The G-20 governments need to take measures to normalize the situation, R. Azevedo believes.

Earlier, it was reported that the Committee on International Trade of the European Parliament declared the need to reform the WTO in connection with the crisis of the organization. Experts noted that the key functions of the organization are at risk. Negotiation and related to the settlement of disputes. The deputies proposed to develop new rules for the functioning of the organization, as well as to expand the jurisdiction of the WTO, including e-commerce, digital commerce, and public procurement. WTO representatives appealed to the European Commission (EC) to help shape a mutually beneficial strategy. This process is under development.

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In sight of GBP / USD: it's time to buy a pound

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The chances for a safe British exit from the European Union have increased. The transaction is expected to be approved for the transition period. In addition, the likelihood of transition to the side of the British premier of recalcitrant deputies and the possibility of avoiding the "tough" Brexit scenario has increased. Against this background, Westpac sees an opportunity to buy sterling against the dollar.

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Bank experts advise taking a pair of GBP / USD at 1.2855 with a target of 1.3200. The protective stop-loss, in their opinion, should be set at 1.2770. After raising the pair by 75 points from the initial entry level, it should turn into a trailing stop.

Risks are also not excluded, these can be:

- EU waiver of agreement

- Cancellation of EU summit

- The failure of the draft transaction in the British Parliament

Due to the increased uncertainty or low liquidity in America due to Thanksgiving Day, it is possible to trigger stop losses.

As it became known on Thursday, the United Kingdom and the European Union agreed on a political declaration on how, after a break in relations, they would trade and interact in security and other areas.

The transition period of 21 months starts on March 29, and for the time being, Britain will remain a member of the pan-European market and the customs union. The draft agreement on withdrawal from the group should be approved by the country's parliament, and now there is no majority in support of the deal promoted by Theresa May. All opposition parties and many conservative parliamentarians are against it. Some of them, supporters of the "tough" Brexit, wanted to initiate a procedure for making a vote of no confidence in May.

On Friday, the euro and the pound traded without much hesitation. Traders are waiting for clarity after the parties have agreed on a draft agreement on further cooperation.

Judging by the text of the project, the United Kingdom and the European Union are counting on a large-scale partnership in the future. The document must go through an approval procedure on Sunday.

The dollar index decreased by 0.28% to 96.437. The US currency is weakening mainly due to the growth of the euro and the pound, which generally account for 70% of the index.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 23. The pair has a wave potential for growth

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Wave counting analysis:

During the November 22 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair rose by 100 basis points, thus confirming the transition to building the third wave of the uptrend trend with targets located near the 50.0% and 38.2% of the Fibonacci levels. As before, the future of the pair largely depends on the news background, which at any time can create pressure on the pound sterling, since there are too many unresolved questions concerning Brexit and Theresa May's future political career. As a result, wave C may turn out to be shortened, or even the whole part of the trend, taking its beginning on September 20, will require additions.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2991 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD remains in the process of building an upward set of waves, but is still very reluctant. A successful attempt to break through the level of 100.0% according to Fibonacci would suggest the complication of the trend section dated September 20. But so far this has not happened, I recommend buying a pair in small volumes based on the construction of the third wave with targets located near the levels of 1.2934 and 1.2990.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 23. The pair continues to grow hard without news support

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Thursday, the EUR / USD currency pair gained another 20 basis points, so the current wave pattern has not changed again. It is still assumed that the correctional wave 2 of the new upward trend section has completed its construction. If this is true, then today the quotations continued to increase within wave 3 with targets above the 15th figure. Difficulties the pair adds a lack of positive news for the euro background. Without it, the pair moves up quite difficult and slow.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1500 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1577 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to build an upward set of waves. Thus, now I recommend buying a pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1500 and 1.1577, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% in Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the maximum of the supposed wave 4 will confirm readiness for further growth of the instrument.

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The threat of recession will return panic to financial markets

The threat of escalation of the trade war between the United States and China increases the risks for the entire global economy. Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires next week, but the chances of finding a solution that suits both parties are extremely small.

The main reason for the negative expectations is a slowdown in the global economy, which threatens to slow down both sides, regardless of the outcome of a trade war.

Signs of a new crisis approaching are complex. For example, the current decline in oil prices is due to a variety of reasons, such as sanctions against Iran, oversupply from countries not participating in the OPEC + agreement, but there is a more pragmatic option, prices are declining due to the threat of slowing global demand. The slowdown in demand also indicates that the world economy cannot generate sustainable energy demand, and therefore is preparing for a recession.

At the same time, metal prices show a similar trend ahead. For example, copper is a technological metal, and the demand for it correlates with the growth of the technology sector as a whole. Copper peak was reached in the summer of 2018, then prices fell sharply due to the beginning of trade wars, the trend is negative. Iron ore passed the peak in the spring of 2017, after which prices began to decline.

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In an attempt to support the growth of activity, the Chinese authorities decided to exempt large foreign investors from taxes on coupon income on bonds in the domestic market. This measure shows the seriousness of the problem since it eliminates any likelihood of China abandoning the "Strategy 2025" policy, which the US insists on, and reduces the likelihood of a compromise in a trade war.

Today in the afternoon, volatility may increase, since players will compensate for yesterday's holiday in the US, and the closing of the week will play its role. The dollar looks like a favorite so far, but if the rumors about the Fed's suspension of growth rates are confirmed, then the formation of a large-scale correction is possible in the short term.

Eurozone

The euro could take advantage of rumors about possible changes in the Fed's policy, but it wasn't the case, the euro is also practically nothing to rely on. The slowdown in business activity is noted in all sectors of the economy, which holds back any hawkish intentions of the ECB, which, in fact, was not even possible to declare, not to start implementing.

The European Commission published a report on the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone in November, a preliminary level of -3.9p worse than -2.7p a month earlier, and this is the smallest value in more than a year and a half, the trend is obvious and does not require special explanation.

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Today, Markit will release preliminary data on PMI for November, neutral expectations with a bias towards negative. At the same time, forecasts for the United States are slightly better, which indicates that the dominant idea in the markets for higher economic growth rates in the United States than in the eurozone.

The currency pair EUR / USD will continue to trade in the range, there are some reasons for a breakthrough, either way, players will wait for the results of the EU summit at the end of the week. Growth is limited by the resistance of 1.1445, and support of 1.1360.

Great Britain

Pound, as expected, is trying to strengthen against the background of improved prospects for Brexit before the EU summit. According to the chairman of the European Council, Donald Tusk, the parties agreed on the text of a political declaration, which means that the chances for its signing on November 25 have noticeably increased.

From Monday, the focus will shift to the UK Parliament, where May has no advantage, and the chances of passing the agreement are still low. Nevertheless, the short-term positions of the pound look strong. Today, GBP / USD may attempt growth, the targets are 1.3080, 1.3125 and 1.3180.

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GBP / USD. November 23. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pair may again go into decline due to strong resistance

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 98.0612

The currency pair GBP / USD on Friday, November 23, was fixed above the moving average line thanks to the information that the UK and the EU reached a consensus on all issues relating to Brexit. However, after an impressive breakthrough to the top, the momentum disappeared, which, from our point of view, is quite logical. The fact is that, by and large, this "complete agreement" will not matter if Brexit is not approved by at least one of the EU member states. Now, it is already known that Spain, which has differences with Great Britain over Gibraltar, can do this. Also, do not lose sight of the fact that the treaty on Brexit must approve the British Parliament. Thus, we believe that the strengthening of the pound sterling is extremely short term. No important macroeconomic reports are expected from the UK on the last trading day of the week. But at the same time, new information on Brexit can come in, which has remained the main one for the British pound for already long months and can still influence the national currency of Albion for a long time. If there are no new messages from Theresa May and the EU leaders, the currency pair can start declining today, as Murray's level of "3/8" has been tested for strength for the fourth time and is still not overcome.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2817

S2 - 1.2756

S3 - 1.2695

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2878

R2 - 1.2939

R3 - 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has started an upward movement, which can be very short-term. If traders manage to overcome the level of 1.2878, the purchase order can be opened for the purpose of the level of 1.2939.

Sell positions will become available again for opening in the event of a price fixing below the moving average line with a target of 1.2756. This is a more likely scenario for the instrument, if there is no new information supporting the pound sterling.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. November 23. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pair is at risk of going flat for a few days

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 18.2851

The EUR / USD currency pair on Friday, November 23, continues to trade slightly above the moving average line, having previously worked it out and have failed to overcome it. Thus, the upward mood in the market remains, but the pair has serious problems with overcoming the Murray level of "3/8" - 1.1414. From a fundamental point of view, traders in the last two trading days do not respond to incoming messages. The information was completely ignored that the EU and the UK agreed on all Brexit clauses and now the EU leaders, who must approve the entire document on the Brexit clause, have the floor. And, from our point of view, this information was ignored quite rightly, since, by and large, it does not mean anything. First, Brexit can be blocked by Spain (like any other country). Secondly, the voting in the British Parliament has not yet taken place and will take place only in December, which leaves the pound sterling in limbo for at least a few more weeks. On the last trading day of the week, there will be nothing interesting in terms of macroeconomic reports, except for preliminary values for indices of business activity in various areas of services and products in the USA and the Eurozone. These reports are unlikely to cause at least some reaction of the market since these are only preliminary values.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair maintains the likelihood of continued upward movement. If the pair manages to overcome the level of 1.1414, then the long positions will become relevant with the goal of 1.1475. The color 1-2 bars indicator Heikin Ashi in blue will indicate a new round of correction.

Sell orders are recommended to be considered only after re-fixing the pair below the moving average. In this case, the downward trend resumes with the first target of 1.1292. For greater confidence in the short positions, it is recommended to wait and overcome the level of 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for November 23. To continue the growth of the euro, a breakthrough in the level

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the European currency, after the formation of the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator, and the return to the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423. Reversing the quotations from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a resumption of decline in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the pair's chances for further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the US currency after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator. Thus, it is expected to continue falling in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. A pair of the last divergence peak will work in favor of the European currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Fixing the pair over the correction level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of continued growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.1789.

The Fib net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1497 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair closes above the 1.1423 level.

Selling of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the target of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair performs a new rebound from the correction level of 1.1423.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for November 23. Pound growth may stall around 1.29

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair made a sharp reversal in favor of the British currency and an increase to the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2904. Releasing the pair on November 23 from the Fibo level of 61.8% allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight decline in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.2980.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the quotes of the pair completed the growth to the correctional level of 61.8% - 1.2878. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 61.8% will make it possible to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and the beginning of a fall in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2809. There are no ripening divergences on the current chart. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect continued growth in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.2935.

The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with a target of 1.2935 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 61.8% if the pair closes above 1.2878 (hourly chart).

It will be possible to sell a pair of GBP / USD with a target of 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 61.8%, as the pair will perform a clear rebound from the level of 1.2878 (hourly chart).

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Analysis of Gold for November 23, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,224.00. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I have found a bearish breakout of the 24-hour balance, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found the rejection of the upper Keltner band and hidden bearish divergence on the RSI oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,217.60 and at the price of $1,208.13.

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