Trading plan on EUR/USD for January 2, 2020.

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So, the new trading year 2020 has started. Happy New Year to you!

The EUR/USD exchange rate is experiencing a downward pressure on the first hours of trading.

However, everything is within the upward trend so far: The signal for the trend is a break and consolidation above 1.1200.

Keep buying from 1.1035, like from the beginning of December.

It makes sense to keep buying from 1.1100.

Buy from 1.1200. I would write about breakeven.

Possible rollback on buying from 1.1185.

Sell from 1.1065.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair on January 2. We expect the pound to fall by 100-120 points in the coming days.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction - up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 128.9549

The British pound in the last days of the past year also rose in price paired with the US currency and added about 300 points. Just like the euro currency, this growth was not supported by any fundamental factors, macroeconomic events, and so on. Thus, just as in the case of EUR/USD, we believe that now is the time for the pound to resume the downward trend with a fall, at least, to the levels of 1.2900 and 1.2800. Of course, theoretically, if the pound continues to enjoy increased demand, then the growth of the pair will continue. All also without any fundamental grounds. However, we believe that traders will still return to the usual trading mode, using logic. Thus, today or tomorrow, the pound-dollar pair may begin a correction to move, and in the future, it may be closed under this line with a change of trend to a downward one.

For the pound, by the way, the most important year in recent decades has come. The last three years have been completely linked to the procedure for bringing Brexit through Parliament. 2020 will be associated with the UK's exit from the European Union and all the consequences of such a step by the government of Boris Johnson. In principle, we have repeatedly noted that in any case, the British economy will be hit hard. In any case, Britain will face geopolitical problems such as riots on the island of Ireland, Scotland's desire to leave the United Kingdom through an independence referendum, problems with the Spanish government on the issue of Gibraltar, and so on. But if Boris Johnson still fails to reach an agreement with Brussels on trade relations after 2020, it will be an additional blow to the British economy. Thus, in the last months of 2019, the British pound has risen in price and this growth is a great acceleration for the pair and traders begin new mass sales of the British currency. There are no other fundamentally justified scenarios for the pound.

Today, by the way, the UK will publish the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for December. As you might guess, the forecasts are again disappointing. A value of 47.6 is expected, compared to the previous month's value of 47.4. As we can see, a small improvement is possible, but not so strong that we can state the "recovery" of the industry. Thus, the general state of things in the manufacturing sector will not change, and the pound is unlikely to receive support based on this macroeconomic report. Moreover, as in the case of the euro, we believe that it is time for the pound to "pay off its debts" a long time ago. We still believe that the clouds are "gathering" over the UK, and the growth of the British pound in the last three months is just a New Year and Christmas gift to the currency from traders. Already at the beginning of this year, in its first months, we are waiting for the resumption of the downward trend and believe that it will be quite strong. Throughout 2020, the multi-year lows of the British currency may be updated. As a result, we recommend waiting for the technical indicators to turn down, especially since the lower linear regression channel has already performed such a turn. Now it is necessary to overcome the moving average line with the change of the trend to a downward one, after which it will be possible to consider short positions again.

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The average volatility of the pound-dollar pair over the past 5 days is 104 points, remaining at a fairly high level. According to the current level of volatility, the working channel on January 2 is limited to the levels of 1.3146 and 1.3354, and we believe that the pair will strive for its lower border.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3123

S3 - 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3245

R2 - 1.3306

R3 - 1.3354

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is currently continuing its upward movement. Thus, traders are advised to stay in the pair's purchases with the targets of 1.3245 and 1.33306 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to return to the sales of the pound-dollar pair not earlier than the reverse consolidation below the moving average line with the first goal of 1.3000.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression - the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression - the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi - an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview and recommendations for EUR/USD for January 2, 2020

Hello, dear colleagues!

That's the end of the first winter month and with it, the year 2019. The year was not easy and was marked by a trade standoff between the United States and China. However, trade disputes between countries with the first and second world economies have been going on for about 17 months, and are unlikely to be resolved immediately, at one point. In this light, it is reasonable to assume that in the coming year, the trade conflict between the United States and China will find its continuation.

As for the US currency, which is the No. 1 in the Forex market, despite the Fed's rate cut, sometimes ambiguous macroeconomic statistics and the same trade war between Washington and Beijing, the US dollar feels no less confident and is trading without any falls or take-offs. Except that the weakening of the "American" in pairs with commodity currencies, but this is not about it.

Since December ended, it makes sense to start the technical part of this review with a review of the monthly chart and see what the prospects for EUR/USD look like on the most senior timeframe.

Monthly

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As you can see, by the end of December, the main currency pair has significantly strengthened. As a result of the growth, the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator was broken, as well as the resistance of sellers in the area of 1.1080. It is worth noting here that attempts to break through the indicated resistance were observed during the previous two months, but were in vain.

The December closing price was 1.1228, which is pretty good in itself. However, at 1.1254, the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud passes, and at 1.1333, the 50 simple moving average is located. If the growth continues, the lower limit of the cloud and 50 MA may provide serious resistance, but in the meantime, it is possible to adjust the course to its December strengthening.

In general, after the growth in December, the breakdown of resistance near 1.1180 and the closing price above 1.1200, it is likely that the euro-dollar will continue to strengthen, but, as noted above, much will be decided near 1.1250 and 1.1330.

Daily

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As expected in the last review of last year, trading on January 2 opened with a gap, and with a bearish one. After such a rapid growth of the last three trading days, this factor looks quite justified. The market needs a correction, after which, most likely, the pair will turn in the chosen north direction.

At the time of writing, trading is conducted near 1.1205. A little lower is the broken resistance level of 1.1190, which now may well support the price. At 1.1183, there is a 233 exponential moving average, which can also support the rate in case of its decline. Thus, the goals of the expected correction can be identified in the area of 1.1200-1.1180, and when the pair falls in this area, we consider the opening of long positions from here. Let's see how things are in smaller time intervals and whether this idea will find confirmation there.

H1

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As you can see, trading on January 2 began for EUR/USD extremely negative. Not only did they open with a downward trend, but after that, there was a fairly strong decline. However, at the moment, the pair has found support in the form of 50 MA and began to recover. But how much it will be significant remains a big question. The situation for the euro is complicated by the presence of an obvious bearish divergence of the MACD indicator, but it is necessary to perceive such diversions only as an additional signal.

As for the current recovery and the situation in general. Alternatively, they can go up, close the gap and turn down again. If there is a bearish candle or candles near 1.1225, you can try to sell with the removal of the stop above the highs of 1.1238. Fortunately, the stop is small. The goals are in the area of 1.1200-1.1180, from where it is already worth looking at the purchases and again focus on the signals of the Japanese candlesticks.

Here is a simple plan for the main currency pair. In conclusion, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year, wish them good health and success!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for January 2020 for the GBP/USD currency pair

In December, the price moved up, broke through the resistance line of the downward channel of 1.3287 (black thick line) and reached the retracement level of 61.8% - 1.3451 (blue dotted line). After testing the pullback level of 61.8%, the pair went quite far down and closed below the resistance line of 1.3287.

Trend analysis.

In January, it is possible to move up with the target of 1.3514 - the upper fractal (red dotted line). If this level is overcome, the next top target is a pullback level of 76.4% - 1.3759 (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (monthly chart).

Indicator analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Technical analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

The conclusion on complex analysis - the upper hand is possible.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the GBP/USD currency pair according to the monthly chart: the price will most likely have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow (first week of the month - white) and the absence of the second upper shadow (last week - white).

The upper target is 1.3514 - the upper fractal (red dotted line). If this level is overcome, the next top target is a pullback level of 76.4% - 1.3759 (blue dotted line).

An unlikely scenario - from the level of 1. 3235 resistance line (black bold line) downward movement with a target of 1.2919 - 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line).

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair on January 2. The holidays are over, it's time for the euro currency to pay off its debts

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction - up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction - up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 72.8130

Well, the holidays are over. Ahead is still the celebration of the Nativity of Christ according to the Christian calendar, however, this holiday will have a very indirect relation to the forex market. Thus, it is quite possible to assume that the days with unreasonable movements are over for the currency market. At least, I hope so. At the end of 2019, the European currency managed to rise in price against the US dollar by 130 points. It doesn't seem like much, but it's still growth. If we take into account the fact that for the whole of 2019, the euro currency fell against the dollar by 2.5 cents, then 130 points are not so small. And most importantly, of course, there were no fundamental reasons for such growth. In the last days of 2019, no important macroeconomic information was published in the United States or the European Union, there were no important data from top officials of the ECB, the European Parliament, the Fed, or Donald Trump. Thus, we associate this strengthening of the euro currency with purely psychological factors. For example, with the desire of traders before the New Year to close some of the "dollar" positions, which led to a drop in demand for the dollar and its cheapening. Or a major player entered the market in the last days of the outgoing year, which also got rid of the US currency. One way or another, we do not consider the strengthening of the euro currency justified. As a result, we believe that the euro will fall again paired with the US currency, and this movement will begin soon. First, you need to work out the 130 points that were won on the "New Year" week. Next, we are waiting for the formation of a new downward trend. Of course, as before, we do not recommend to work "ahead of the curve" and try to guess the endpoint of the upward trend. It is better to wait for the technical indicators to turn down and then start trading lower.

The first day of the new year will not give traders time to swing. Today, in the European Union and America, indices of business activity in the sphere of production for December will be published. In recent months, this indicator is one of the most important for both European countries and the United States. After all, a business activity now has a pronounced tendency to decline and pulls down a lot of other macroeconomic indicators. According to experts' forecasts, business activity in the locomotive country of the entire EU economy (Germany) will remain at an extremely low level - 43.4. In other countries, the situation is no better. In Spain, the expected value is 47.0, in Italy - 47.2, in the UK - 47.6, in the EU as a whole - 45.9. Even if the real values are slightly higher than the forecasts, all business activity indices will remain in the "recession zone". Thus, I would not expect any improvement in the production sector of the EU countries today. Only in France, the manufacturing sector is still afloat with a previous reading of 50.3 and a similar forecast for December. What does it mean? This means that in the next month, the state of the EU economy should not be expected to improve. Industrial production may again decline against the background of such business activity, respectively, will be inclined to decline and GDP.

In the United States, at first glance, the situation is a little better. At least the Markit PMI is forecast at 52.5, however, we remind you that the more important index is the ISM, which will be published on Friday and currently stands at 48.1. Thus, US business activity indices contradict each other. One indicates a decline in production, the other - a strong growth. But since the ISM is more important, tomorrow buyers of the US dollar may be disappointed.

In general, we believe that after the "euro-week" the currency pair now has only one road - down, and, despite the fundamental background. The euro has risen unreasonably, now you have to pay off debts. From a technical point of view, the correction has already started, as indicated by the indicator Heiken Ashi, the nearest correction targets are 1.1177 and the moving average line. Further, for our hypothesis to be confirmed, traders will need to overcome the moving average.

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The average volatility of the euro-dollar currency pair is now 48 points, which is the average value for the euro currency. Thus, we have volatility levels on January 2 - 1.1177 and 1.1273. Thus, today we expect to work out the lower limit of the volatility channel.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1200

S2 - 1.1169

S3 - 1.1139

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1261

R3 - 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair started a downward correction. Formally, buy orders with the goals of 1.1230 and 1.1261 are still valid, but their opening can be considered no earlier than the completion of the current correction. The general fundamental background remains not on the side of the euro currency, so the pair's fall is more preferable. It is recommended to return to sales of the euro-dollar pair not before fixing below the moving average line.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression - the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression - the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi - an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for January 2020 for the EUR/USD currency pair

In December, the price, having strayed from the support line (blue bold line), went up. Moving upward, the pair reached 13 average EMA - 1.1209 (yellow thin line). An important boundary in January will be the level of 1.1285 - 21 average EMA (black thin line). Most likely, in January, it is possible to continue the upward movement.

Trend analysis.

In January, it is possible to continue the upward movement with the first goal of 1.1185 - 21 average EMA (black thin line). If this level is broken, the next target is 1.1412 - the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (monthly chart).

Indicator analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candle analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

he conclusion of comprehensive analysis - the top job.

The total result of calculating the candle of the EUR/USD currency pair according to the monthly chart: the price will most likely have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow (first week of the month - white) and the absence of the second upper shadow (last week - white).

The lower scenario is unlikely. However, the first lower target of 1.1105 is the historical support level (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 2

EUR / USD

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Players on the upside managed to optimistically close the last month of the outgoing year. During the increase, the pair worked the first target of the daily target for the breakdown of the cloud (1.1237). This level was where we met the first resistance, which is a quite wide, zone of resistance (1.1237 - 1.1253 - 1.1277 - 1.1299). Now, passing these levels will allow the pair to penetrate the Ichimoku clouds at the most upper times (week - month), which will entail the formation of new upward prospects. At the same time, players on the upside can take a break having completed the tasks of closing the month and year. The nearest support zone is now in the area of 1.1153 - 1.1111 (daily cross + weekly cross + monthly Tenkan).

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The development of the current correction has led the pair to lose support for the central pivot level (1.1222). At the moment, the first support of the classic Pivot levels (1.1205) is being tested for strength, and then the support is located at 1.1180 (S2) - 1.1163 (S3). Today, the closing and most important support is the weekly long-term trend which is located at 1.1148. To change the current balance of forces and the emergence of new opportunities for players to increase in this situation, you need to regain the central Pivot (1.1222) and leave the correction zone (1.1240).

GBP / USD

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Last December, the players on the upside managed to close above the monthly medium-term trend (1.3167), but the resistance met 1.3314 (the lower border of the monthly cloud) - 1.3452 (monthly Fibo Kijun) remained unfulfilled. Now, consolidation above will open up new horizons for players on the upside. At present, the pull is at the daily Fibo Kijun (1.3250), while nearest support is concentrated in the area of 1.3170-1.3094 (daily cross + weekly Tenkan + monthly Kijun).

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Meanwhile, on the lower time-frames, the development of correction is observed. At the moment, the struggle is for the central Pivot level (1.3217). Further, the weekly long-term trend (1.3055), the nearest Pivot level S1 (1.3150) may act as intermediate support with the continuation of the decline on the way to the key reference point of the correction. Therefore, a conversation about the plans and opportunities for players on the upside will be possible after leaving the correction zone and consolidating above the maximum extremum (1.3284).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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New year's cross limits

Good afternoon, dear traders! Congratulations to all a Happy New Year! I wish you good luck, money, and peace of mind!

The opening of the market on the first trading day of the new year was relatively calm, compared with the phenomenal results for the yen and the Australian dollar during 2019.

At the end of last year, we unloaded on AUD/CAD in profit, and now, the whole Australian group is rolling back. This is a good opportunity to get longs, and my trading plan for the distribution of limit purchases is on the screen below:

AUD/CHF:

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AUD/CAD:

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I remind you that these crosses have a fairly narrow range without a pullback, and are now at historical lows. Therefore, the principle of "buy cheap" here works better than anywhere else.

I wish you all success in trading and control risks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday levels for EUR/USD, January 02, 2020

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. The US will also provide some economic data such as Final Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Claims.So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1259. Strong Resistance: 1.1253. Original Resistance: 1.1242. Inner Sell Area: 1.1231. Target Inner Area: 1.1205. Inner Buy Area: 1.1178. Original Support: 1.1168. Strong Support: 1.1156. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1150. Disclaimer: Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all traders or investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday levels for USD/JPY, January 02, 2020

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In Asia, Japan today will not release any economic data but the US will release some economic reports such as Final Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Claims. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 109.31. Resistance. 2: 109.09. Resistance. 1: 108.85. Support. 1: 108.65. Support. 2: 108.42. Support. 3: 108.19. Disclaimer: Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all traders or investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 02/01/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

According to several analysts, the Ethereum network was the target of a coordinated attack. Following reports claiming that some Parity Ethereum nodes have lost synchronization with the network, on December 31, Parity Technology from the Blockchain core infrastructure announced that it believed there was an attack, and then released network updates to protect itself.

According to cryptocurrency security consultant Sergio Demian Lerner, the attack was implemented in a simple way in which the user sends to the Parity node a block with invalid transactions but the correct header (borrowed from another block). The node will mark the block header as invalid and block the header forever, however, the header is still valid.

Software developer Liam Aharon analyzed the attack, concluding that it was close to the destruction of the entire network and that Ethereum may become much more vulnerable to similar attacks in the coming year.

According to Aharon, the attack did not manage to cut off the entire network because it has a client called Geth who was immune to the attack. However, given Parity's intention to transition from Parity Ethereum to the DAO ownership and maintenance model, Geth may become the only well-maintained customer in 2020.

Technical Market Overview:

After the Pin Bar candlestick pattern has been made on the ETH/USD pair at the level of $136.64, the market keeps trading lower and is approaching the lower channel line located around the level of $125.00. The bulls have temporary control of the market, but it might not last for long as the price is getting closer to the key technical resistance area. Nevertheless, it is worth to keep an eye on the current developments of the Ethereum market, despite the fact, that the market is currently trading aimlessly inside of a range. A breakout higher or lower can happen anytime now.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $156.40

WR2 - $145.89

WR1 - $141.32

Weekly Pivot Point - $130.81

WS1 - $125.47

WS2 - $114.97

WS3 - $109.88

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the downtrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another wave up.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 02/01/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Bitcoin miners in the Chinese province of Sichuan are under pressure from local authorities to limit their activities due to electricity shortages.

In the dry season, which lasts from October to April, the supply of electricity drops drastically in southwestern China, which is why local authorities tighten screws to mining companies to reduce their activities.

Running Bitcoin mining companies is officially banned, but they are tolerated in the Sichuan province in the rainy season when hydroelectric power plants produce more energy than necessary, using the excess energy produced.

However, in the dry season, local authorities are trying to ensure sufficient energy supply for residents and local businesses, and are therefore turning their attention to regional Bitcoin farms that consume excessive amounts of electricity to operate.

Chinese authorities are not only dealing with mining farms. Power plants are also chasing. Two power plants received fines of around $ 140,000 in December for supplying Bitcoin electricity without obtaining a power license.

China, whose Bitcoin miners are currently responsible for up to 66% of the global hash rate, continues to fight the illegal use of energy by cryptographic miners. In mid-November, regulators in the Chinese autonomous region of Inner Mongolia tightened control over cryptocurrency mining companies by sending control units to ensure the rectification of cryptocurrency mining companies in the region.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside of a tight range located between the levels of $7,461 - $7,195 for all the first days of 2020, so not much has changed yet. At the top of this range, another Pin Bar candlestick pattern has been made, which might indicate a possibility of a wave down. The key technical resistance is still located at the level of $7,601, so any rally higher must break through this level. On the other hand, the key technical support is seen at the level of $6,938 and this is where the price seems to be heading now.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,243

WR2 - $7,942

WR1 - $7,641

Weekly Pivot Point - $7,288

WS1 - $6,995

WS2 - $6,660

WS3 - $6,345

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 02/01/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken out form the short-term channel around the level of 1.3025 and is rallied towards the 61% of the Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down located at the level of 1.3280, where it was capped. Currently, the market is trading inside of a narrow zone located between the levels of 1.3209 - 1.3280. Please notice, the strong and positive momentum which is behind the move up, but please notice as well the overbought market conditions that may lead to the corrective cycle. The nearest technical support is located at the level of 1.3031- 1.3121.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3395

WR2 - 1.3256

WR1 - 1.3182

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.3041

WS1 - 1.2971

WS2 - 1.2819

WS3 - 1.2756

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up. All downward moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. In order to reverse the trend from up to down, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2756 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 02/01/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made a local high at the level of 1.1239 after a gain consolidation period. The short-term trendline resistance has been tested from below around the level of 1.1210 and violated, but the rally might be terminated soon, despite the strong and positive momentum. The market is in the overbought conditions and there is a clear negative divergence between the price a momentum indicator. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1174 and the next technical resistance is located at the level of 1.1242 and 1.1250. Although the higher timeframes trend remains bearish, the global investors must take into account, that the EUR/USD might be finally breaking up from the multi-month Ending Diagonal pattern.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1349

WR2 - 1.1265

WR1 - 1.1228

Weekly Pivot - 1.1151

WS1 - 1.1114

WS2 - 1.1029

WS3 - 1.0994

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.1040 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 2, 2020

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GBP/JPY continues to follow the expected path. We are currently in wave b of a zig-zag correction. We know the corrective formation must be a zig-zag as the decline from 147.96 to 141.14 (wave a) was in five waves. The current contra rally is wave b and it will ideally stall at the 61.8% corrective target of wave a at 145.36 before turning lower in wave c towards 139.82 to complete the zig-zag correction in black wave iv.

At this point only a break below 142.41 will indicate a premature conclusion of wave b and the onset of wave c lower towards 139.82.

R3: 145.36

R2: 144.94

R1: 144.40

Pivot: 144.19

S1: 143.65

S2: 143.38

S3: 143.28

Trading recommendation:

We are long 50% GBP from 141.50 and we will raise our stop and sell GBP to 142.35 and we will take profit + sell GBP at 145.20

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 2, 2020

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We continue to look for more upside progress towards the ideal target for red wave iii at 123.55 before a more prolonged correction in red wave iv takes over. A break above minor resistance at 120.10 should pave the way for a rally to 122.66 on the way higher to 123.55.

Only a break below 121.52 will indicate a more complex correction is developing as blue wave (iv) and a dip to just below 121.03 should be expected before the next rally higher towards 123.55.

R3: 122.50

R2: 122.20

R1: 122.00

Pivot: 121.85

S1: 121.69

S2: 121.52

S3: 121.29

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.25 with our stop placed at 121.40

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on December 31. Bulls need to cover the morning gap to continue growth

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The pound continued to strengthen against the US dollar, thereby confirming the presence of large buyers in the pair, even despite all the pessimism that was associated with Brexit and the trade agreement at the end of last year. At the moment, an important task of the bulls is to maintain support at 1.3203, the formation of which a false breakout in the first half of the day can lead to an increase in GBP/USD and cover the morning gap. However, it will be possible to talk about maintaining the upward momentum only after a break and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3277, which will open a direct path to the highs 1.3348 and 1.3418, where I recommend taking profits. In case a decline occurs below the support of 1.3203, long positions can be returned to the test of a low of 1.3147, where buyers will try to form the lower boundary of the new ascending channel.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The aim of the sellers will be to support 1.3203, in the area of which the market opened after the new year. Consolidation below this level will quickly push the pound to the lows of 1.3147 and 1.3085, where I recommend taking profits. However, you need to understand that the bulls will try to do everything to go to block the morning gap, especially in case of good data on production activity. Therefore, in a growth scenario, it is best to consider new short positions only after the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.3277, but you can sell the pound immediately for a rebound from a high of 1.3348. In case of weak data on manufacturing activity in the UK, pressure on the pound will increase.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the continuation of the upward correction of the pound.

Bollinger bands

In case the pair declines, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator in the region of 1.3167. Growth will be limited by the upper level at 1.3277.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 2. Euro continues to knock at a resistance of 1.1235

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Nothing has changed from a technical point of view, another unsuccessful attempt to increase bulls above the resistance of 1.1235 led to a downward correction of the pair. At the moment, the closest target for buyers of the European currency is still the level of 1.1235, a breakthrough of which will provide the pair with a more powerful momentum, with a high at 1.1263 and 1.1289, where I recommend taking profits. If there are no active purchases of the euro in the first half of the day, it is best to postpone long positions to the test level of 1.1200, the formation of which a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions. Larger sellers will be active only in the area of a low of 1.1174.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Data on manufacturing activity in the eurozone countries may put pressure on the euro in the morning, however, the whole emphasis will be shifted to support at 1.1200, since only consolidating below this level will lead to a downward movement to the low of 1.1174 and 1.1145, where I recommend taking profits. If the reports indicate the appearance of activity at the end of last year, then we can expect a second wave of EUR/USD growth in the resistance area of 1.1235, where the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions in the pair. I recommend selling the euro immediately for a rebound from a high of 1.1263.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which can provide support to the pair in the short term.

Bollinger bands

If the pair decreases, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1190. The upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1235 will act as resistance, a break through which will lead to an increase in the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Forecast for EUR/USD on January 2, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro grew at a fairly high volume by another 30 points on the last day of 2019. This time, stop losses were closed above 1.1220. It is hard to say where the bulls will calm down, or they will be stopped more decisively. From a formal standpoint, consolidating the price above 1.1250 - the high of August 5, may extend growth to the target range of 1.1324/60 formed by the July 14 peak and the Fibonacci level of 76.4% on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is trying to overcome the upper limit of his own rising channel - the probability of continued growth is high.

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Divergence has formed on the four-hour chart for Marlin. This technical formation also raises the question of its readiness and strength in the formation of a reversal of quotes. In order to confidently form a reversal, the price must be below the MACD line, at 1.1140, passing more than 70 points.

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The current euro levels (100.0% Fibonacci daily) are strong, since November 2018, the price from it has been reflected ten times in both directions. It remains to wait one or two days until the situation is resolved.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on January 2, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound took full advantage of the convenience of the thin market for a breakthrough as the price grew by 153 points on December 31. Therefore, the pound corrected exactly by 61.8% of the fall from December 13 to 23. The price exit above Tuesday's high opens the next target in the range of 1.3350/70 - the range corresponds to the Fibonacci level of 223.6% on the daily chart and 76.4% on H4.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart is growing in the zone of positive values, the price is above the indicator lines - the growth is strong.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator gives a weak correction (not a reversal) signal.

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The growth of counter-dollar currencies in recent days has been speculative.

Accordingly, the decline in the pound since the opening of the New Year's market may also be sharp. The technical condition for the completion of growth and the resumption of the fall will be price consolidation under the MACD lines on charts of both scales, these supports coincide at a price level of 1.3055.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on January 2, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen sharply increased its strengthening during the final two days of December, having fixed itself under the indicator lines of balance and MACDon the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator went down from its own two-month range. The immediate goal of 108.22 is the line of the red downward price channel. Overcoming support opens the second target of 107.67 on the green price channel line. Further, a decrease to 107.34 is possible.

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On the four-hour chart, the situation is completely downward, the local reversal of the signal line of the leading Marlin oscillator in the observed situation is led.

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Gold rushed up

The weakness of the US dollar at the end of the year made it possible for gold to eliminate most of the autumn losses associated with the de-escalation of the US-China trade conflict and head for better performance since 2010. The precious metal grew by 16.5% at the end of 2019 due to trade wars, the monetary easing cycle, Fed policies, weaknesses in major world currencies and declining global debt market returns. It is quite capable of starting 2020 on a major note, because the signing of a trade agreement by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping risks launching the S&P 500 correction process against the background of the principle of "buy by rumor, sell by facts".

Gold annual dynamics

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While the bulls on XAU/USD are enjoying the victory, their opponents talk about the limited potential of the rally and the technical nature of gold growth at the end of December. There are no grounds for buying safe haven assets amid record peaks in US stock indices and a high global risk appetite. Trading volumes are low, probably, one of the speculators is testing the market for strength. No more. CME derivatives give only a 45% chance of the Fed loosening monetary policy in 2020, so the precious metal seems to have nowhere to draw strength.

In fact, you need to understand that uncertainty will not disappear even after the conclusion of the phase one deal. Most of the tariffs against China remain in force, so there is no reason to count on a V-shaped recovery of its economy. The process will go with a creak, which will keep the demand for reliable assets high. According to a survey of 37 largest asset managers conducted by Reuters, the share of debt securities in their portfolios increased from 41.8% to 42.1% compared to November, while equity, on the contrary, decreased from 47.5% to 47%. There is no talk of any rush demand for risk.

Uncertainty contributes to capital inflows into precious metals-oriented ETFs. At the end of 2019, stocks of specialized exchange-traded funds increased by $18 billion, which is the best result in three years and contrasts with the results of other ETFs focused on the commodity market. In particular, energy exchange funds lost $1.2 billion, those working with industrial metals - $ 200 million, with agricultural products - $260 million, with commodity market indices - $1.5 billion.

Gold-Oriented ETF Reserves

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If we add to the fact that the trade war between Washington and Beijing is not over yet, the growth of political risks in the United States in connection with the presidential election and the tension between the US and the EU, which at any moment can develop into a large-scale trade conflict, the desire of investors to hide in the golden cave looks logical. It is unlikely that a sell-off in XAU/USD should be expected; I estimate the chances of the restoration of the bullish trend higher than the development of the correction.

Technically, activating the Expanding Wedge pattern increases the risks of target implementation by 161.8% according to the Crab model. Drops to 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% to wave 4-5 should be used to form long positions.

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EUR/USD. Brexit, trade war and US presidential election: the main battle between bulls and bears is yet to come

The outgoing year was marked by a low volatility for the EUR/USD pair. Price fluctuations were the weakest since the introduction of the single currency in circulation. The pair met 2019 at 1.1452, while now the price is being traded in the region of the 12th figure. It is noteworthy that the price did not rise above the 14th level - the high of the year was fixed at 1.1489. The EUR/USD bears can boast of brighter achievements - they were able to push the price to the eighth figure in early autumn. The support level of 1.0880 turned out to be too tough for sellers, so the pair returned above the 1.1000 mark in November.

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Thus, the pair fluctuated within the 500-point range for 12 months. For comparison, in 2017, EUR/USD traders strode by almost 1700 points, rising from the third figure to 1.2000. Last year was also quite volatile - the pair rose from 1.2000 to 1.2500, after which it gradually decreased over the course of six months, reaching the 12th figure. Compared to such price fluctuations, the outgoing 2019 year looks faded. In fact, the price was circling around the 10th level, and the bulls and bears only "pulled the rope" - sellers made an attempt to go below the 9th figure, buyers tried to rise above the 14th. But in fact, the EUR/USD pair ends the year at almost the same level where it met (with a relatively small decrease). All this suggests that the main battle between bulls and bears is yet to come.

Toward the close of 2019, the financial world was able to breathe a sigh of relief: China and the United States escaped the escalation of the trade war, and the British Parliament approved in the second reading a bill on Britain's exit from the European Union. The overall tension in the foreign exchange market decreased, which made it possible for the European currency to show character. In turn, the dollar came under significant pressure. The US currency was used as a safe haven in a period of uncertainty, while now the anti-risk sentiment has been replaced by a craving for risky assets. In addition, the US regulator continues to conduct overnight repo transactions, and this factor also exerts background pressure on the greenback, especially against the background of the thin market. This state of affairs will remain at least until the beginning of next week, until traders are finally included in the operating mode.

If we talk about longer-term prospects, then here we are again returning to the old problems, which will remind ourselves in 2020. The focus of dollar pairs will continue to be on the trade conflict between the US and China, while the EUR/USD pair will also respond to the events around Brexit. The signing ceremony for the first phase of the deal between Washington and Beijing is due this weekend. However, then the parties will begin negotiations on the second part of the trade agreement, where the most complex and strategically important issues will be discussed. This negotiation process will be the #1 topic for dollar bulls - only the US presidential election (November 2020) can overshadow this fundamental factor. Donald Trump expects to sign the second phase of the transaction before the voting day. He needs a victory in a trade war, while the Chinese are counting on a change of power on the American political Olympus. Obviously, Trump will put pressure on China, threatening to tighten the terms of the deal in the event of his re-election. Whereas the current ratings no longer speak of the clear leadership of Joe Biden.

Moreover, according to recent opinion polls, the current president maintains strong positions in key states, on which the outcome of the elections will most likely depend. The latest opinion poll shows that the head of the White House at the national level is ahead of all the main candidates from the Democratic Party. Such circumstances may have a corresponding effect on the obstinacy of the Chinese side. In any case, the negotiation process between the United States and China will have a strong impact on dollar pairs, including EUR/USD. If the parties nevertheless come to a compromise, the euro will receive strong support, as the head of the ECB associates the risks of a slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone with geopolitical factors. De-escalation of the protracted conflict will allow the European Central Bank to maintain a wait-and-see stance on the issue of monetary policy, and given the growth of key indicators, even think about raising the interest rate (especially against the background of side effects of the negative rate).

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The Brexit problem will also "sparkle with new colors" in 2020. The recently passed bill suggests that the transition period ending December 31 of next year will not be extended, and that concluding a trade agreement with the EU after Brexit could do without the consent of the House of Commons. This document has not yet been finalized - it will have to go through the third reading next month, and then the millstone of the House of Lords. Conservatives now have their own majority in the Lower House of Parliament, so with a high degree of probability it can be assumed that Britain will leave the EU before January 31, after which negotiations will begin within the transition period.

According to many experts, the parties will not have time to agree on a trade agreement before the end of next year - the head of the European Commission has already expressed willingness to extend the negotiation period for another year or two. But Johnson is still taking a tougher stance on this issue. The increasing tension between London and Brussels will put pressure not only on the pound, but also on the euro. But if the parties nevertheless find a common denominator (at least in determining reasonable terms for the transition period), the British currency will pull the euro along with it.

In general, most experts are inclined to believe that the coming 2020 will be, firstly, more volatile, and secondly, less successful for the US currency. In the context of EUR/USD, this means that in the long run the pair may rise to the middle of the 17th figure (i.e. to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line). The next resistance level on the MN timeframe is at 1.2150 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud). However, it is too early to speak about these price heights. Moreover, judging by the intensity of the upward movement, we can assume that a corrective pullback to the region of the 11th figure is quite likely in early January.

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Dollar has set chords in recent years and its colleagues are enjoying success

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The USD index sank to its lowest level in almost six months in anticipation of the new year. The greenback is still suffering because of expectations about the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China following the first stage of negotiations. The financial flows of the end of the quarter and year in order to rebalance the portfolios also gravitate over the US currency.

In late September – early October, the USD index peaked at around 99.5 points and has since fallen by 2.5%, showing the largest quarterly loss since March 2018.

Low trading volumes at the end of the year exacerbated the general weakness of the US currency, which on Friday experienced the strongest one-day fall since June this year.

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"The main drivers of the weakening dollar are likely to have been an increased risk appetite caused by recent comments by the United States on a trade deal, as well as ongoing repos by the US Federal Reserve," MUFG said.

"The weakness of the dollar is partly due to the fact that investors believe that trade tensions between Washington and Beijing are now unlikely to increase," said Derek Halpenny, head of global market research (in Europe, the Middle East and Africa) at MUFG.

"Another negative factor for the greenback was the elimination of the problem of a lack of dollar liquidity, which the Fed introduced into the system through overnight operations. This eased concerns about a potential sharp increase in the federal funds rate," the expert added.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair for the first time since mid-August rose above the 1.12 mark.

Signs that the eurozone economy has pushed off the bottom have helped strengthen the single European currency in recent weeks.

In addition, the yield on ten-year German state bonds at the end of December is growing at a faster pace than their American counterparts, and the divergence in the dynamics of the S&P 500 and Shanghai Composite indices lends a helping hand to the bulls on EUR/USD. Business activity in the manufacturing sector of China managed to stay above the critical mark of 50, and the subindex of new export orders exceeded it for the first time since May 2018. Clearly, Beijing's fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are working, which is supporting the local stock market. US stock indices seem to have gone too far. The factor in signing the trade transaction by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping has already been put in quotes, which means that the sale of securities in order to take profits is not far off.

The growing fears about a possible correction of the S&P 500 index make it possible for the single European currency to feel quite confident. According to Goldman Sachs, the euro behaves like the yen in the early 1990s and 2000s, and it is particularly sensitive to market turbulence. It is hardly worth it to be surprised. The ECB's ultra low rates have turned EUR into a funding currency. Therefore, it is quite natural that the euro will respond to a pullback in the US stock market: in this case, carry traders will actively close their own positions. If after the conclusion of a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing, the "buy by rumor, sell by facts" principle works, then the S&P 500 index will go down, and the EUR/USD pair will reach 1.1300 and 1.1350 in January.

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The British currency is strengthening against the US dollar for the sixth consecutive day. The pound is showing its best quarterly growth in a decade.

Market participants continue to monitor developments around the exit of Great Britain from the European Union.

According to the head of the Cabinet of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, the ratification of the agreement on Brexit will lead to a new investment boom in the country. This will make it possible for the Bank of England to tighten the monetary rate by raising interest rates.

In addition to Brexit, the regulator's monetary policy may be affected by the appointment of a new head of the central bank in late January. After the referendum on UK membership in the EU, Mark Carney was clearly in no hurry with the changes in BoE, but the new leader may well change the approach to monetary policy.

On January 5, the British Parliament will return from the New Year holidays and will begin to consider issues related to the duration of the Brexit transition period, which should last until the end of 2020. If MPs succeed in convincing Johnson to extend the transition period, then London will have enough time to coordinate with Brussels the preservation of access to the single market and the EU customs union. In this regard, it makes sense to keep long positions in the GBP/USD pair.

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EURUSD and GBPUSD: the euro and the pound are preparing for growth in 2020. UK housing prices to increase

The euro and the pound continue to strengthen their position against the weakening US dollar at the end of the year amid growing optimism about the prospects for the US-China trade agreement. Given that there are no other important fundamental statistics during the pre-holiday period, traders are mainly focused on any news related to the agreement. Some pressure on the US dollar is also exerted by the Federal Reserve's ongoing repos through which banks are provided with the necessary liquidity.

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From the data released, one can note a report on the number of contracts for the sale of homes in the United States. According to information from the National Association of Realtors, the index of signed home sales contracts rose by 1.2% in November, while economists had expected the index to grow by 1%. Sales rose by 7.4% compared to the same period of the previous year. Even despite the limited supply on the market, sales grew due to lower Fed interest rates this year. The start of the next year should take place on a positive note, but the proposal still does not keep pace with significant demand, which will only increase as the Fed returns to the average level of interest rates, which will lead to more expensive financing.

The PMI data for Chicago and Dallas supported the US dollar in the afternoon of Tuesday, but this did not lead to a more serious strengthening against the euro and the pound.

According to the report, Chicago Purchasing Managers PMI Index in December this year was 48.9 points, almost returning to around 50 points. However, its stay below the level of 50 points indicates a continuing decline in business activity. Economists had expected the business barometer to be 47.4 points.

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Production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas also recovered in December. According to the report, the production index calculated by the Fed-Dallas in December 2019 was 3.6 points, after falling to -2.4 points in November. Business activity in December fell to -3.2 points from -1.3 points in November, but the indicator of expectations of companies rose to 1.3 points.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it should be noted the efforts of buyers of risky assets, who, at the end of the year, seizing the moment, are strengthening their positions against the US dollar. The problem for the bulls is resistance at 1.1215, which has already been tested several times. Only a breakout of this level will increase the demand for a trading instrument, which will lead to new highs in the region of 1.1240 and 1.1270. If the pressure on risky assets returns, and this can happen quite easily in a thin market, then only 1.1170 area will provide support.

GBPUSD

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The British pound continues to regain its position against the US dollar. Yesterday's evidence that the number of mortgages in the UK has increased indicated a growing indifference to residents' Brexit problems. According to Octane Capital and UK Finance, the number of mortgages approved increased by 6.8% in November 2019 compared to the same period last year, to 43,589. The number of approved repeat collateral agreements also increased by 13% to 34,653 .

The main demand is associated with a gradual recovery in housing prices after a period of uncertainty with Brexit and sluggish economic growth, which constrained the housing market. Now that the situation seems to have partially cleared up, the prospect of price recovery worries people buying housing for the first time, which fuels market demand.

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January 1, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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In the period between October 17 to December 4, the GBP/USD pair has been trapped between the price levels of 1.2780 and 1.3000 until December 4 when bullish breakout above 1.3000 was achieved.

Moreover, a newly-established short-term bullish channel was initiated on the chart.

The GBPUSD has recently exceeded the upper limit of the depicted bullish channel on its way towards 1.3500 where the pair looked quite overpriced.

This was followed by successive bearish-engulfing H4 candlesticks which brought the pair back towards 1.3170 quickly.

Further bearish decline was pursued towards 1.3000 which got broken to the downside as well.

Technical short-term outlook turned into bearish since bearish persistence below 1.3000 was established on the H4 chart.

Hence, further bearish decline was expected towards 1.2840 - 1.2800.

However, earlier signs of bullish recovery manifested around 1.2900 denoted high probability of bullish breakout to be expected.

Intraday technical outlook turned into bullish after the GBP/USD has failed to maintain bearish persistence below the newly-established downtrend line.

That's why, bullish breakout above 1.3000 was anticipated. Thus allowing the current Intraday bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3250 (the backside of the broken channel) where bearish rejection and another bearish swing can be watched by conservative traders.

Bearish reversal scenario around 1.3250 is supported by the recent negative divergence as depicted on the chart.

If so, Intraday bearish target would be projected towards 1.3000 provided that early bearish breakout below 1.3190 is achieved.

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January 1, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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Since November 14, the price levels around 1.1000 has been standing as a significant DEMAND-Level which has been offering adequate bullish SUPPORT for the pair on two successive occasions.

Shortly-after, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within a narrower consolidation range between the price levels of 1.1000 and 1.1085-1.1100 (where a cluster of supply levels and a Triple-Top pattern were located) until December 11.

On December 11, another bullish swing was initiated around 1.1040 allowing recent bullish breakout above 1.1110 to pursue towards 1.1175 within the depicted newly-established bullish channel.

Initial Intraday bearish rejection was expected around the price levels of (1.1175).

Quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.1115 (Intraday Key-level) which got broken to the downside as well.

On December 20, bearish breakout of the depicted short-term channel was executed. Thus, further bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.1065 where significant bullish recovery has originated.

The current bullish pullback towards 1.1235 (Previous Key-zone) should be watched for bearish rejection and another valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, bearish breakout below 1.1175 is mandatory to allow next bearish target to be reached around 1.1120.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for bearish rejection signs around the current price levels of (1.1235) as a valid SELL signal.

Bearish projection target to be located around 1.1175 and 1.1120. Any bullish breakout above 1.1250 invalidates the mentioned scenario.

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