Daily analysis of USDX for March 20, 2015

At the daily chart, the instrument did a strong rebound at the support level of 98.01, because, as we have been saying in the last articles, the USDX is still alive in the bullish outlook for the medium and long term. If the USDX breaks the resistance zone of 99.19, it will test the level of 100.49. For now, we recommend to wait for bullish pattern formations to follow the current bias.


USDXDaily.png




Currently, the USDX is trying to consolidate again above the 200 SMA in the intraday charts, because the instrument recovered from the losses of the last session, above the support zone of 97.19. If the USDX breaks the resistance level of 99.13, the next target could be the psycological level of 100.00, which is an important one.


USDXH1.png




Daily chart's resistance levels: 99.19 / 100.49


Dailychart's support levels: 98.01 / 96.60


H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.13 / 100.01


H1 chart's support levels: 97.93 / 97.19






Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 99.19, take profit is at 100.49, and stop loss is at 98.27.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 20, 2015

The GBP/USD pair is still forming a lower low pattern below the resistance level of 1.4820. For now, we're wating for a re-test at the support zone around 1.4649. The bearish structure is still showing us enough downside force to continue dropping in the medium and long terms. Also, the 200 SMA at the daily chart is still bearish.


GBPUSDDaily.png




The Thursday's session had an interesting price action at the H1 chart, as the GBP/USD pair did a pullback at the 200 SMA and it failed to consolidate above that indicator. The pair is currently trying to break the support level of 1.4697 with a lower low pattern formation. In case of success, the next target is going to be at the support zone arond 1.4629, which is the March 18 low.


GBPUSDH1.png




Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.4820 / 1.4948


Dailychart's support levels: 1.4649 / 1.4533


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4842 / 1.4921


H1 chart's support levels: 1.4697 / 1.4629






Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4697, take profit is at 1.4629, and stop loss is at 1.4770.


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#USDX technical analysis for March 20, 2015

The Dollar index is consolidating below short-term resistance at 99.35. The longer-term trend remains bullish. The weekly chart also remains bullish. I believe there are increasing chances that we may see a low in this move on Wednesday and we are not going to see it below 96 over the coming weeks.


usdx.jpg


Green line= resistance


The price is inside the cloud as shown in the 4-hour chart. This is a sign of neutrality. Nor bulls nor bears have the upper hand. Bulls will control the trend if the price breaks above 99.90. Bears are going to be back in control if price breaks below the cloud support at 97.50.


usdxd.jpg


The weekly chart remains fully bullish. The price has pulled back to test the tenkan-sen support indicator on wednesday and the 50% retracement break out area. I believe that after this back test we should expect the index to reach the 61.8% retracement at 101.50 at least. Trend will change to short-term bearish if we break Wednesday's lows.


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Gold technical analysis for March 20, 2015

Gold price is making another upward bounce towards the resistance at $1,175-80. The price remains below the downward sloping trend line and inside the cloud of the 4-hour chart. As long as the price does not break above $1,180, I will expect another round of selling to push prices towards $1,140.


gold.jpg


Black line = resistance


Green line = support


Gold price is testing the black downward resistance trend line. The last time it was tested, the price got rejected at $1,220 and reversed lower towards $1,140. Trend remains bearish as long as the price is below this trend line and as long as it does not break above the cloud.


goldh4.jpg


Green line = support


Black line = resistance


Bulls need to defend the support at $1,145-40 and break above $1,175 at least. On the other hand, bears will try to break short-term support at $1,159 and $1,140. The price is inside the Ichimoku cloud. This is a sign of neutrality in the trend. However, I remain bearish as long as we are below the trend line.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 20, 2015

EUR/USD: Despite a significant bulls' attempt to push the EUR/JPY pair upward this week, the bias on the cross remains bearish. This is because the cross has already lost nearly all its bullish gains for the week. Support lines at 1.0550 and 1.0500 are now being watched.


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USD/CHF: Because the EUR/USD pair skyrocketed momentarily this week, the USD/CHF pair also plummeted momentarily. However, some of the loss has been regained, but events are going to be largely determined by what happens next to EUR/USD. The market is likely to experience an opposite movement compared to the EUR/USD pair.


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GBP/USD: There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable: the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The accumulation territory at 1.4700 has been tested, plus another accumulation territory at 1.4650 might soon be tested.


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USD/JPY: There is a perpetual upward bounce following the recent great dip in this market. Nevertheless, the upward bounce has not been serious enough to allow a clean confirmation of a bullish outlook, unless the price closes above the supply level at 121.50. Right now, the bulls should tread with caution.


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EUR/JPY: In spite of a significant bulls' attempt to push the EUR/JPY pair upward this week, the bias on the cross remains bearish. This is because the cross has already lost nearly all its bullish gains for the week. The demand zones at 128.00 and 127.50 are now being watched.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 20, 2015

General overview for 20/03/2015 06:45 CET


The market has come up to test important resistance and weekly pivot at the level of 1.2746. Now, it is slightly giving up gains. The move up had been labeled as impulsive wave (i) green and current corrective cycle might be a wave (ii) green in progress. The most important level for this count is the intraday support at the level of 1.2596 and 1.2634, because any breakout lover will immediately expose the swing lows and enhance the chances for market making wave (b) blue instead of wave (ii) green. On the other hand any bounce/reversal from one of the support levels might suggest more gains in this market as the upward wave will develop, but the key level to the upside is another higher high above the level of 1.2833. Lack of this impulsive wave progression to the upside might suggest a wave 4 green triangle (or any other more complex corrective cycle) is still in progress.


Support/Resistance:


1.2388 - Invalidation Level


1.2416 - WS3


1.2447 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation Level


1.2495 - WS2


1.2596 - Intraday Support


1.2634 - Intraday Support


1.2668 - WS1


1.2756 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|


1.2746 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should keep an eye on the intraday support at the levels of 1.2634 and 1.2597 and consider to open buy orders from this levels with a very tight SL (10-20 pips).


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 20, 2015

General overview for 20/03/2015 06:25 CET


The market has come down just as anticipated yesterday and is currently in the process of making wave X brown to the downside. In the mean time, the market is trading in quite tight daily range between the levels of 129.52 - 128.24. The current best count might even suggest the wave X brown might had been completed, but to confirm this assumption, the price must break out higher above the intraday resistance at the level of 129.52. Please notice that if the intraday support at the level of 128.24 is violated, the next support is the swing lower at the level of 126.89.


Support/Resistance:


133.33 - WR2


132.45 - 61%Fib


131.84 - Technical Resistance


131.66 - Intraday Resistance


131.39 - 50%


129.90 - WR1


129.52 - Intraday Resistance


128.41 - Weekly Pivot


128.24 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders might consider to open buy orders from current price levels with SL below the level of 128.24 and then add to the buy orders if the level of 129.52 is broken with H1 candle close above it. TP for both types of orders should be placed first at the level of 130.50, and then at the level of 131.66.


eurjpy_h1.jpg


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 20 - 2015

2015-03-20-EURNZD-4H.png


Technical summary:


We have seen a move lower, and the break below minor support at 1.4367 does argue for more downside pressure towards at least 1.4048 and more likely lower towards 1.3846. However, the decline from 1.4437 is not yet overly convincing, but we are going to let bears have the benefit of the doubt for now. Short-term resistance at 1.4437 needs to protect the upside for a continuation lower. A break above 1.4437 will call for more upside towards 1.4557.


Trading recommendation:


We are short EUR from 1.4545 and will move our stop lower to 1.4445. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 1.4437 with the same stop.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 20 - 2015

2015-03-20-EURJPY-4H.png


Technical summary:


It' s not yet quiet clear whether wave C of the expanded flat correction has terminated or one final decline closer to 125.98 is missed. Our count argues for one more decline and a break below minor support at 128.24 that is likely to support the case for one final decline closer to 125.98. On the flip side, a break above 130.04 would indicate that a firm bottom is already in place at 126.87 and a break above 131.74 is going to confirm that outlook.


Trading recommendation:


We will sell EUR upon a break below 128.24, but on the other hand we will like to buy EUR upon a break above 130.04, so we will place both orders, with one order done will cancel the other.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 20, 2015

USDJPYM30.png


Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range. It is underpinned by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 99.02 versus 97.82 early Thursday) as investors re-established bets that the US currency would continue to gain on monetary-policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (2-year at 0.613% versus 0.565% late Wednesday), demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan . But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, selling of yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 0.72% to 14.07, S&P 500 closed 0.49% lower at 2,089.27 overnight) as Philadelphia Fed's March manufacturing index came in weaker-than-expected at 5.2 versus forecast of 7.0 and positions adjustment ahead of weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 121.10 and the second target at 121.55. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.95. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.65. The pivot point is at 120.35.


Resistance levels:

121.10

121.55

121.85


Support levels:

119.95

119.65

119.25


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 20, 2015

USDCHFM30.png


Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. The swissie is weakt as the Swiss National Bank maintained its deposit rate at minus 0.75% on Thursday, lowered its 2015 and 2016 inflation forecast, and said it remained committed to prevent the Swiss franc from appreciating. USD/CHF is also supported by the improved dollar sentiment, negative Swiss interest rates and threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention, and Swissie sales on soft CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment ahead of weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as stochastics falling from overbought levels, the MACD is staging bearish crossover against its exponential moving average, although the inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9850. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9760. The pivot point stands at 1. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1.009 and the second target at 1.0120.


Resistance levels:

1.009

1.0120

1.0160


Support levels:

0.9850

0.9765

0.97


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 20, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png


Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate. It is undermined by the improved dollar sentiment, the kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite, and soft commodity prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the kiwi demand on a soft AUD/NZD cross, NZD-USD yield differential, and positions adjustment ahead of weekend.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastic is in bullish mode, and a five-day moving average is advancing. Although, the inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7340. The break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7270. The pivot point stands at 0.7510. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7565 and the second target at 0.7620.


Resistance levels:

0.7565

0.7620

0.7715

Support levels:


0.7340

0.7270

0.7235


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 20, 2015

GBPJPYM30.png


Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the diminished investor risk appetite, soft undertone EUR/USD, and Japan export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and position adjustment ahead of weekend. The sterling got hurt after Bank of England's chief economist Andrew Haldane said that the BOE "stands ready" to cut interest rates if needed to tackle low inflation.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as stochastic is rising from oversold levels, but the MACD is still in bearish mode.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 180.80 and the second target at 181.80. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 177.10. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 176.15. The pivot point is at 178.55.


Resistance levels:

180.80

181.80

182.75

Support levels:
177.10

176.15

175.35


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 20, 2015

!EURUSD.jpg






When the European market opens, economic data on the EU Economic Summit, Current Account, German PPI m/m are due for release. The US will not release any economic data today. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in low volatility during this day.




TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:




Breakout BUY Level: 1.07.21




Strong Resistance:1.0714.




Original Resistance: 1.0704.




Inner Sell Area: 1.0694.




Target Inner Area: 1.0669.




Inner Buy Area: 1.0644.




Original Support: 1.0634.




Strong Support: 1.0624.




Breakout SELL Level: 1.0617.








Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 20, 2015

!USDJPY.jpg






In Asia, Japan is going to release the monetary policy meeting minutes. The US is not expected to release any economic data. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the day.




TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:




Resistance. 3: 121.28.




Resistance. 2: 121.04.




Resistance. 1: 120.81.




Support. 1: 120.52.




Support. 2: 120.29.




Support. 3: 120.05








Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of GBP/USD for March 20, 2015

The US dollar grabs its leadership position at the yesterday's session. The US dollar regained against the euro what it lost after the FOMC meeting. At the yesterday's session, we advised the bearish view again. Eventually, the pound looks weak against USD ahead of political drama. The UK is slowly approaching its general election scheduled for May. Market participants expect the pound to get under a downward pressure. The cable gave an upside breakout from the bearish channel, but bulls hope for short lived. The cable settles in the same bearish channel. The cable has been closing around 1.4745 and 1.4750. A daily close is below 1.4745 and we can expect 1.4350 in the medium term. The pound is trading higher against the US dollar and yen at the Asian session today. At the yesterday's session, we recommended safe and risky traders as well to sell with targets at 1.4850, 1.4750, and 1.4700. The cable made a low at 1.4689. Intraday support is seen at 1.4735 and 1.4700. We recommend selling below 1.4730 with targets at 1.4700, 1.4640, and 1.4500.


Trade: Buying above 1.4835


Selling below 1.4730


GBPUSDH4.png


To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of EUR/USD for March 20, 2015

The US dollar grabs its leadership position at the yesterday's session. The US dollar regained against the euro what it lost after the FOMC meeting. At the yesterday's session, we advised the bearish view again. Eventually, the euro looks weak against USD. We have been recommending to trade with the target at 0.9000 for the last three weeks. Parallel support is seen at 1.0335. We still recommend the same selling strategy. The pair managed to close below hourly moving averages on the H1. Today, during the early Asian session, the euro is trading higher against USD, JPY, GBP, and AUD. The pair's weekly parallel resistance is seen at 1.1098. We have been recommending to trade with the target at 0.9000 for the last three weeks. Parallel support is seen at 1.0335. For an intraday trade, we recommend selling below 1.0600 with targets at 1.0580, 1.0550, 1.0500, and 1.0460. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0720 and support is likely to be found at 1.0610. At the yesterday's session, we recommended safe buying only above 1.1100; risky traders can buy above 1.1050. Sell below 1.0820. Buying not triggered, but selling trade gave almost 200 pips.


Support: 1.0610, 1.0580, 1.0463


Resistance: 1.0690, 1.0720, 1.0740


Trade: selling below 1.0600


Buying above 1.0720,


EURUSDH1.png


To contact the author


of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com






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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 20, 2015

gbpusdh1.png

Overview :



  • TThe GBP/USD pair has been trading bearish since yesterday and started dropping form the level of 1.4990. Also, it should be noted that the price of the GBP/USD pair opened below the weekly resistance 1 at the level of 1.4761. Additionally, the double top is set at 1.4926 in H1 chart. Therefore, the market will probably indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 1.4926 in the short term. According to the previous events, the price is going to move between the levels of 1.4926 and 1.4706. The level of 1.4688 is going to represent the double bottom and strong support is seen at the level of 1.4706. Therefore, the area below 1.4854 (minor resistance) looks for further decline with the first target at the level of 1.4704 and continues towards 1.4688 in order to test the double bottom. However, the stop loss should be placed at the price of 1.4993.


Intraday technical levels :



  • R3: 1.5260

  • R2: 1.5135

  • R1: 1.4940

  • PP: 1.4815

  • S1: 1.4620

  • S2: 1.4495

  • S3: 1.4300


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 20, 2015

audusdh1.png

Overview :



  • Yesterday, the AUD/USD pair showed a turbulent rise from 0.7595 and extended further to as high as 0.7654. The price placed above 00% of Fibonacci retracement levels a week ago because this ratio represents the double bottom at the H1 chart. Moreover, it should be noted that the price had formed a strong support at the level of 0.7595. Furthermore, the market has still been trapped between the levels of 0.7600 and 0.7702 at the same time frame. There is a probability probably that the market will start showing the signs of bullish market again in order to indicate a bullish opportunity from the level of 0.7600 with targets towards the strong resistance around 0.7668 and 0.7700. Meanwhile, bulls were forced to pullback below the level of this area. Therefore, this level is likely to form strong resistance in order to indicate a bearish opportunity below the resistance which stands at the price of 0.7702 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels). However, there is a new intraday bearish outlook on March 20, 2015, if closes below 0.7702 then the market will be called for downtrend to continue its bearish movement towards the price of 0.7640 and then 0.7610.


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Gold : analysis for March 19, 2015

GOLDDaily19.png


GOLDM30.png


Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price has tested the level of $1,177.64 in an ultra volume (buying climax). According to the 1H time frame, we have an ultra-high buying climax and a definite sign of weakness, so be careful when buying gold. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of $1,162.00.


Daily Fibonacci pivot points:


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,169.30


R2: 1,187.30


R3: 1,199.50


Support levels :


S1: 1,139.10


S2: 1,126.90


S3: 1,108.90


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement.




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EUR/NZD : analysis for March 19, 2015

EURNZDDaily19.png


EURNZDH419.png


Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.4352 in a high volume. The mid-term trends are bearish and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after corrections. I found big weakness around the price of 1.4630 (buying climax). My advice is to be careful when buying and to watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement. Major support is at the price of 1.4360.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.4595


R2: 1.4654


R3: 1.4748


Support levels:


S1: 1.4406


S2: 1.4347


S3: 1.4252


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement (after bullish correction).




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