Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 22, 2014

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Overview


In H4 chart, the pair failed to break the support level of 177.30 more than once to continue its bearish move and it has been trading above since yesterday. Today, the H4 chart shows that the pair bounced from the support area again and started to take a slightly upward move approaching the resistance level of 178.00. Currently, it is better to wait for closing above this resistance level, before making the decision and in this case we will get more bullish signals with the first target few pips below the next resistance level of 179.80 then 180.50 as the second target. But closing below the resistance level of 178.00 cancels the bullish move scenario.


Resistance and Support levels: R3 (181.00), R2(180.50), R1(179.80), S1 (178.00), S2 (177.30), S3(176.50).


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 22, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair has pulled back from the 141.20/30 levels and is trading around 140.00 at the moment. The entire structure indicates that EUR/JPY might have formed a major low at 135.80 levels and it could be towards printing a fresh high above 145.00 in medium term. A pullback into the 138.20/139.00 levels should be considered as opportunity to initiate long positions again. Immediate upside potential remains at 142.30/50 levels. Also please note that the pair has broken resistance line of its counter trend from 145.00 to 135.80 and hence buying on dips should remain a preferable trading strategy for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Look to enter long between 138.20 and 139.00 again.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for September 22, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF is retracing for now, after printing highs at 1.5450 levels last week. The entire structure indicates that the GBP/CHF pair is potentially moving towards 1.5800 levels, and hence buying on dips remain a recommended trading strategy for now. Immediate support is at the 1.4975 levels, followed by 1.4750 and lower, while resistance is at 1.55 and 1.58 (fibonacci), respectively. A dip towards 1.5200 again could be considered as potential long entry again. Only a break below 1.4975, and subsequently, 1.4800 (support trend line), should be a concern to the bullish setup.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now and look to buy on dips towards 1.5200 levels.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for September 22, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver prints fresh lows today around $17.30/35 before bouncing back sharply towards $17.80 levels as seen here. The metal is forming a hammer on the daily chart at the moment, indicating a potential pullback or reversal ahead. Immediate support is seen at the $17.05 level followed by $16.50 while resistance is seen at $18.60/70 (previous support turned into resistance), followed by $19.50, $20.00 and higher respectively. It is recommended to wait for a bottom and reversal signal on the daily chart view for now. On a larger time frame, (not shown here), the metal is at a fibonacci 0.786 support level of the entire rally from $08.00 to sub $50.00. A reversal here would be constructive for bulls to resume the larger upswing. Aggressive short positions could be avoided at the moment.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for September 22, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold is nearing its major support region around the $1,180.00/$1,200.00 levels. The metal has made fresh intraday lows at $1,208.00 today before bouncing back to $1,215.00 at the moment. The overall structure still reveals that bulls could regain control ahead of $1,200.00 levels. Furthermore, please note that $1,180.00 is major consolidation support area where bulls are expected to bounce back. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,240.00 levels, followed by $1,273.00/75.00, $1,296.00 and higher up while immediate support is around $1,200.00 followed by $1,180.00 levels respectively. It is recommended to wait for a reversal confirmation before, going aggressively long here.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Looking to go long again.


Good luck!


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EUR/NZD analysis for September 22, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5852. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5760 held successful, which caused price to start bullish continuation. We may expect testing the level of 1.5930 (swing high like resistance). Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.5900 (swing high like resistance), we may see potential testing the level of 1.6000 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be careful when selling and watch for potential buying opportunities.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5873


R2: 1.5909


R3: 1.5967


Support levels:


S1: 1.5758


S2: 1.5722


S3: 1.5665


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since we may see further upward movement.


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Gold : analysis for September 22, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,208.00 in a volume below average. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe weak demand in a volume below average, which is a sign that buying still looks risky. If the price breaks the level of 1,218.00 in a higher volume, we may see potential testing the level of Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,194.00. Anyway, if the price starts with upward movement, there is a Fibonacci retracement 38.2% from the most recent downward leg at the price of 1,220.00.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,216.98


R2: 1,217.36


R3: 1,217.97


Support levels


S1: 1,215.76


S2: 1,215.15


S3: 1,214.77


Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since we can't see any larger reaction from buyers.


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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for September 22-26, 2014

Overview :


The market continues showing signs of strength following the break at 1.6161 (resistance has become support). Therefore, the GBP/USD pair resistance has been broken and it was turned to support last week. Moreover, the pair has already formed a strong support at the level of 1.6161. So, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.6161 with the first target of 1.6350 and continues towards 1.6485 (but in the long term). However, if the trend fails to break this level and closure above 1.6161, then a downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. Additionally, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at 1.6150, hence it will be a good sign to sell at this level with targets at 1.6120 and 1.6065.


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Comment and observations :



  • If the trend is buoyant, then the strength of the currency pair will be defined as following: GBP is in uptrend and USD is in downtrend.

  • Fibonacci retracement is used for determining accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account.

  • Fibonacci is in a range trade; it looks like the trend is trapped moving up or down. If you sell or buy in the long-term period, you will surely lose your profit.

  • About the pivot point: R3 and S3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well in the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be situated between the R1 and S1 lines. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 and R3 or S2 and S3.


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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for September 22-26, 2014

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD pair.


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Overview :



  • In brief, the support will set at the level of 1.2773 but the double bottom is going to set at 1.2827. According to preview of events, the EUR/USD pair has called for the bearish market from the price of 1.2940 because the price of 1.2940 represents strong resistance this week. Moreover, the weekly pivot point at 1.2983 could hit the moving average (50). Preference is to sell below the weekly pivot point at 1.2883 with the first target at 1.2827 in order to test the double bottom. Additionally, if the pair will be able to break the price of 1.2827, then it is going to continue towards 1.2777.

  • However, the stop loss has always been in consideration, thus it will be useful to set it above the resistance at the level of 1.2940. Also, it should be noted that stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.





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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 22 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5939


R2: 1.5900


R1: 1.5858


Current spot: 1.5826


S1: 1.5792


S2: 1.5972


S3: 1.5749


Technical summary:


The expected correction became slightly deeper and a little more complex, than first expected. However, it does not change the overall bullsih picture for a rally higher towards 1.62,03 and even higher to 1.6407. In the short term, we expect minor support at 1.5900 will be able to protect the downside for a break above 1.5939 for the next part of the rally higher to 1.6203 and higher towards 1.6407.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.5750 was hit for a nice profit. We will re-buy EUR here at 1.5826 with stop place at 1.5735.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 22 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 140.96


R2: 170.71


R1: 140.33


Current spot:140.10


S1: 139.94


S2: 139.67


S3: 139.51


Technical summary:


The correction from 141.22 became slightly deeper than expected, but it does not change anything in the larger picture as the expected rally higher to 143.79 is well on track. In the short term, we are looking for a rally above minor resistance at 140.33 as the first indication, that the rally higher is unfolding for a move higher to 141.22 on the way towards important resistance at 143.79.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 135.95 and we sill move stop higher to 139.05. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy here or upon a break above 140.33 with the same stop at 139.05


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#USDX Technical analysis for September 22, 2014

The Dollar index remains above short-term support and we identify a bullish setup that could push price towards 85. The trend remains bullish in the longer-term. So, long positions are favored for now as we do not want to go against the trend. The next target is 85.


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The Dollar index has made a new higher high on Friday and a pull back is underway. Support by the Ichimoku cloud was held and a bounce followed as we wanted. Support at 84.20 is important for the short-term uptrend. As long as price is above 84.20, we should expect a break out towards 85.


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Red line = resistance


In the daily chart above, the Dollar index remains in a fully bullish momentum according to the Ichimoku indicators. The ichimoku cloud remains below price. Tenkan-sen and kijun-sen still have a positive slope and the Chikou Span remains bullish above the current candles rising along.




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Gold Wave analysis for September 22, 2014

Gold price remains in a downtrend as it has given a new lower low earlier this morning. The wave structure suggests we are at the final stages of the longer-term downward move that started from around $1,900. Our target remains near $1,000.


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Green lines = price channel


Red line = resistance


Blue line = support.


Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and inside the downward sloping green channel. Support is found at $1,208 and resistance at $1,220-25. A bounce towards the resistance could be justified and we should take this opportunity to sell as the trend remains bearish. Our short-term target if we reach $1,220 is at $1,200-$1,180 as long as our short-term stop at $1,230 is not broken.


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In the weekly chart above, I show my elliott wave count. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and has broken out of the sideways triangle wave 4. Wave 5 is under way towards $1,100 and $900. We remain bearish.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 22, 2014

General overview for 22/09/2014 09:45 CET


The corrective cycle that had started after the swing high at the level of 141.22 was could belong to one of two possible wave progressions: the first one is an impulsive purple count with the invalidation line at the level of139.16 and the second one is larger degree blue impulsive count with the invalidation line at the level of 138.25. Although the bias remains bullish, traders need to wait for a trading range to be broken to draw more important conclusions about further wave developments.


Support/Resistance:

141.22- Swing High|WR1|

140.20 - Intraday Resistance

139.84 - Weekly Pivot

139.67 - Intraday Support

139.16 - Purple Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

138.46 - WS1

138.25 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

137.12 - WS2


Trading recommendations:

It looks like there is one wave to the downside missing. So, day traders should consider opening sell orders from the current price levels with SL above the level of 140.21 and TP below the level of 139.16.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 22, 2014

General overview for 22/09/2014 09:20 CET


There are two Elliott Wave counts, main and alternative, presented here on two charts with different time frames. The first one is the main count on the hourly chart, it indicates a bullish wave progression to the upside after successful completion of a double zigzag pattern in green wave (ii). The first clue that would support this point of view is present when the golden trend line is broken, a weekly pivot at the level of 1.0971 is broken as well and the price is moving in impulsive fashion. The key level here has been labeled as demand breakthrough zone and it is between the levels of 1.1028 - 1.1038. The alternative count has been presented in the H4 chart, where traders can see two possible forms of a corrective cycle: running and irregular flat. It looks like the running flat might be completed already. Now, the market is expected to make impulsive five-wave progression. Otherwise this corrective cycle might fail and become more complex and time-consuming.


Support/Resistance:

1.0809 - 1.0838 - Demand Zone

1.0885 - Intraday Support

1.0979 - Weekly Pivot

1.1028 - 1.1038 - Demand Breakthrough Zone

1.1065 - WR1

1.1097 - Swing High


Trading recommendations:

Day traders and swing traders should consider opening buy positions here with SL below the level of 1.0884 and TP at the level of 1.1028. However, breakout above 1.1038 allows to add to the long position.


usdcad_h4.jpgusdcad_h1.jpg The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of USD/CAD for September 22-26, 2014

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The pair managed to close above 200WEma the previous week. The pair tested its fate for many times during the past few years. Whenever the pair tried to close above that, it was rejected with sell-offs from there. This time, the pair successfully closed above that, indicating further bullish mode in the future. Today the pair opened below the previous week close and is trading below 200WEma, indicating some weakness. The pair is trading at 0.9387 levels in the Asia's session. On the down side, the pair has support at 0.9332 and 0.93-0.9290 levels. A daily close below 0.9290 only, the weekly trend turns to negative. In the daily chart, the Stochastics indicates a buy mode. The safe buying will be triggered only above 0.9413 levels.


Support 0.9332, 0.9290, 0.9250


Resistance 0.9413, 0.9456, 0.9535


For an intraday view, the pair is trading below 35DEMA but holding at the 12ema support level of 0.9379, below this, it has support at 0.9368 and 0.9360. We recommend safe selling below 0.9360.


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Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of EUR/USD for September 22-26, 2014

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The pair is trading at a short-term trend decider level at 1.2760 (200MEma), the pair made a low at 1.2827 this month, as of now. The support zone is between 1.2760-1.2745 levels. If these levels are breached, it can extend its fall to 1.2660, 1.25, 1.2432, and 1.22. A monthly close below 1.2750 on the downside, 1.22 is an open target in the short term. On the other hand, if the US dollar manages to breach the 85 mark and holds above it, the Euro will continue to weaken further 300-500 pips down. For the weekly perspective, 1.30 (20Dsma) is acting as strong resistance. A daily close above 1.30 only, the weekly trend turns positive, until it, sell on every up move.


Support 1.2745 1.2660 1.25


Resistance 1.30 1.3160 1.3240


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For an intraday view, the pair is trading at 1.2835, the hourly momentum oscillators are indicating some pullback, hope it can move up to 35DEMA (1.2870) and 12ema (1.2875). The US dollar is expected to be taken back from the higher levels because of the 85 resistance mark. Those who like to buy this pair can buy only above 1.2875 for an immediate target at 1.29 and 1.2920.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 22, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Buba Monthly Report, Consumer Confidence. The US will release economic data such as the Existing Home Sales, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2903.

Strong Resistance:1.2896.

Original Resistance: 1.2883.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2870.

Target Inner Area: 1.2840.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2810.

Original Support: 1.2797.

Strong Support: 1.2784.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2777.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 22, 2014

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic news but the US will release economic data such as Existing Home Sales. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.57.

Resistance. 2: 109.36.

Resistance. 1: 109.14.

Support. 1: 108.88.

Support. 2: 108.67.

Support. 3: 108.45 Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of EUR/JPY for September 22-26, 2014

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The pair managed to close above the descending trend line and the top of the triangle. The pair has support at 139.50, 139.10 (50Wsma) and 138.15 (20Wsma). The pair has strong resistance at 140.90, 141.20 and 141.90 levels. The pair today gave a strong opening and opened above the previous week's close. The weekly RSI and Stochastics are indicating a bullish sign. In the early Pacific session, the pair made a low at 139.75 and held the support at 200DSma. The upper end of the triangle, providing enough support to the pair. The main concern part is the daily Stochastics indicating a negative divergence. A daily close below the upper end of the triangle rises bearish thoughts again on a weekly basis. The Thursday and Friday closing patterns indicate the nearest top is placed at 140.46, safe fresh buying only for a target at 141.80.


Support 139.10, 138.45, 138.15.


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For an intraday view, the prices are trading above 12ema and 34hrsma. The pair has resistance at 140.25 35DEMA, above this, 140.33, 140.45, 140.65 and 141 are possible. Strong up move will be triggered only above 141 levels. The pair looks weak only below 139.35 (35hrsma), sellers can look for a downside target at 139.18, 138.46 levels. In the h4 chart, RSI and Stochastics are indicating a buy signal at the current market price.


Sell only below 139.35, risky traders can sell at cmp.


NOTE- If the USD index breaks above 85, JPY will continue to weaken. Please keep an eye on USD.


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Short-term trend levels and an intraday recommendation for Gold for September 22, 2014

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The yellow metal drifted to $1,213 levels in Friday's session, but managed to close above $1,215 levels. The strong US dollar puts pressure on the metal. Now the metal is trading at $1,215.70, it made a low at $1,214.50. The metal has support at $1,212 (200MEma) and $1,185 (200MSma). The short- and medium-term trend setup at these levels; in case of a daily and weekly close below $1,212, the metal will drift towards $1,185, $1,150 and may be even lower to $1,120 levels. Twice these levels pushed the metal from the lower levels. In June 2013 the metal made a low at $1,180, hit the 200MEma, but 200MSma helped the metal to push higher levels and in December 2013 the situation repeated. Currently the metal testing its fortune at the same support zones again. If this time the metal holds the support, it will give a good rally again, but the chances are very remote. We can still see the bear image in the metal chart.


Support $1,212, $1,185-$1,180, $1,120


Resistance $1,228, $1,242, $1,254


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For an intraday session, the metal will face strong selling pressure if it stays below $1,215 and another free fall to $1,212 levels. Even though the metal made a low at $1,214.50 today in the pacific session and $1,213.40 in Friday's deals, but it remained above $1,215 levels. We recommend a safe selling below $1,212 or wait for a minor pullback to sell. The metal has resistance at $1,219 and $1,229 levels. Safe buying will be triggered only above $1,229 towards $1,238-$1,241.50.


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Daily analysis of USDX for September 22, 2014

Daily chart: The USDX is trying to form a bullish pattern above the support level of 84.29, by what the next objective for this instrument would be the resistance level of 85.18. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 86.20 in the medium term which would prolong the bullish trend in the USDX for several days more. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.


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H4 chart: The USDX has made a rebound on the bullish trend line that is near the level of 84.45, and now, the USDX is trying to climb back up to the resistance level of 85.06. If the USDX manages to establish itself above that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 85.95 for this week. However, the USDX could make a pulback at current levels and fall to the level of 84.50. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


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H1 chart: The USDX is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 84.60. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 84.81, the next serious objective level will be 85.03 in the short term. However, if the USDX does a pullback at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 84.60. The MACD indicator is entering overbought zone.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 84.81, take profit is at 85.03, and stop loss is at 84.59.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 22, 2014

Daily chart: The GBP/USD has made a pullback at the resistance level of 1.6540, where the 200-day moving average is, so this pair is trying to form a bullish pattern above the support level of 1.6235. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6326, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6447. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


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H4 chart: The GBP/USD held a pullback at the 200-day moving average, so now, this pair is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6247. If it does, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.605, what would be a bearish consolidation in this chart. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD makes a rebound on the support level of 1.6247, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6435. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.


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H1 chart: The GBP/USD is trying to consolidate below the 200-day moving average and the support level of 1.6291, to fall up to 1.6252 level. If the GBP/USD manages to make a rebound at current levels it would be expected to rise up to the resistance level of 1.6338, where this pair would have to make a breakout to the 1.6375 level. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance is at 1.6507, take profit is at 1.6544, and stop loss is at 1.6470.


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