GBP/USD profit target reached perfectly, time to start buying

Price has dropped absolutely perfectly from our selling area and has reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 1.2703 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a push up to at least 1.2886 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

RSI (34) sees major support above the 26% level where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 1.2703. Stop loss at 1.2596. Take profit at 1.2886.

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AUD/JPY dropping nicely, remain bearish

We remain bearish looking to sell below major resistance at 82.95 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal resistance) for a push down to at least 82.38 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) sees resistance below the 91% level where we expect a drop from.

Correlation analysis: Overall AUD weakness expected today with a drop on AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.

Sell below 82.95. Stop loss at 83.24. Take profit at 82.38.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for June 9, 2017

USD/CHF has recently bounced off the support area of 0.9620 and is currently hovering above 0.9700 area. Yesterday, Switzerland released a series of positive economic reports like unchanged Unemployment Rate at 3.2% which was expected to rise to 3.3% as well as CPI report which also showed an unchanged reading at 0.2% instead of the expected decrease to 0.0%. On the other hand, USD recently got a positive push from the Crude Oil Inventories report which was published with a surplus at 3.3M which was expected to show a deficit of -3.1M and Unemployment Claims were relatively lower at 245k which previously was at 255k but it was more than expectation of 241k. Today, we have USD Final Wholesale Inventories report which is expected to show a rise to -0.1% from previous 0.3%. Eventually, USD is likely to gain ground amid a positive fundamental report to push up against CHF. Importantly, CHF is also quite strong fundamentally which could prove to be quite tough for USD to advance in the coming days. The nearest FOMC meeting can be a very important tool for USD to give the greenback fresh impetus against CHF.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has just broken above 0.9700 area with the intraday moves. The bulls are quite strong in this pair that is expected to continue further if the price remains above 0.9700 with a daily close today. If price manages to remain above 0.9700 today, we will consider buy positions with targets towards 0.9800 and 0.9950 in the coming days. The long-term bias in this pair is bearish until price takes out 0.9950 with a daily close above it but the medium term bullish bias is expected to continue until price breaks below 0.9700 with a daily close.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 9, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair market failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

Bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated off depicted Supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the depicted downtrend took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The temporary bearish rejection was expressed around 0.7050 (previous daily-tops) before further bullish advance was pursued towards 0.7120.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7220 stands as a prominent supply zone in confluence with Fibonacci level 61.8%. That's why a bearish rejection should be anticipated.

On the other hand, daily candlestick closure above 0.7230 (Upper Limit of the current SELL-Zone) opens the way for bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380.

Trade recommendations:

A valid SELL-Entry can be considered at the current SELL-Entry zone (0.7150 up to 0.7220) especially if signs of bearish rejection is expressed.

Conservative traders can wait for bearish closure below 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) to confirm the mentioned SELL signal.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 9, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (Multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1260).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when a Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level to meet the EUR/USD pair is located between (1.1400-1.1520) where price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recent Update: The price levels around 1.1270-1.1285 constitute Intraday resistance where some bearish pullback is being expressed.

Bullish breakout above 1.1285 is needed to allow further bullish advance towards 1.1400.

Trade recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair remains bullish initially towards 1.1400 unless evident signs of bearish rejection are expressed earlier on the chart.

A valid SELL Entry can be considered at the depicted supply zone (1.1400 up to 1.1520) especially if signs of bearish rejection are expressed.

S/L should be placed above 1.1550 while T/P levels should be placed at 1.1100, 1.1020 and 1.0850.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for June 09, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EURUSD pair has drifted lower as expected and discussed in the previous articles here. The pair is seen to be trading right below 1.1180 levels for now but is looking to take support from current here, and there is divergence seen on the hourly chart. Still probability is to dip lower towards trend line support and then reverse higher. The fibonacci 0.382 support is also seen at 1.1100 levels which could provide necessary support and also nearly complete a flat wave structure. On the flip side though, the pair could have already completed a running flat at 1.1170 levels today and might be looking to push higher. In either case a continued short strategy could prove more risky from here on hence recommendations are to remain flat for now and look for further trading plan. Immediate interim support is seen at 1.1110 while resistance is at 1.1285 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please exit short positions now and await for further trade directions. Might be preparing to go long.

GBPUSD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The GBPUSD pair had almost hit the first downside target today around 1.2934 levels before pulling back sharply. The pair is seen to be trading at 1.2775 levels for now and might have completed the first leg of correction already. Looking into the wave counts, the pair seems to have completed waves (1) and (2) respectively earlier and also wave 1 of 3 today at 1.2634 levels. It is expected to produce a three wave a-b-c counter trend rally from here on, which could extend towards 1.2850 levels, which could be labelled as wave 2 of the same degree. Please note that the current rally should be corrective in nature, and that the larger down trend should resume from 1.2850 levels going forward. On the flip side, if the rally continues higher and takes out 1.2970 levels from here, it would nullify the downtrend and open doors for yet another high above 1.3047 levels.

Trading plan:

Please exit short positions for now and prepare to go long.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for CAD employment data coming out in a few minutes from now.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 9, 2017

EUR/USD: There is a bearish threat on this pair. Though the price has consolidated so far this week, and it is gradually going downwards. A movement below the support line at 1.1150 would lead to a bearish signal, while a movement above the resistance line at 1.1300 would result in a bullish signal. A movement towards the resistance line at 1.1250 would make price return to the neutral territory.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF is gradually moving upwards, following the consolidation movements of Monday and Tuesday. A movement above the resistance level at 0.9800 would result in a bullish bias; while a drop from here would result in the resumption of the recent bearish bias on the market.

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GBP/USD: There was a significant pullback on the GBP/USD yesterday, losing about 300 pips, and testing the accumulation territory at 1.2700. The bearish movement was in agreement with the expected bearishness on GBP pairs for the month of June. This has forced a Bearish Confirmation Pattern to appear in the chart, and further bearish movement is possible next week.

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USD/JPY: In the last few days, this currency trading instrument has been going upwards gradually, though in the context of a downtrend. A southwards movement from here would result in the confirmation of the recent bearish bias, while further northwards movement would lead to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. The RSI period 14 is above the level 50, and the EMAs are yet to confirm a bullish signal.

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EUR/JPY: This cross pair has dropped 140 pips this week, leading to a bearish outlook on the market, which was well anticipated. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The market is currently volatile, but a further bearish movement is expected.

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USD/JPY analysis for June 09, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 110.47. According to the 30M time frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's high, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 109.80 and 109.50.

Resistance levels:

R1: 110.40

R2: 110.50

R3: 110.70

Support levels:

S1: 111.00

S2: 109.90

S3: 109.70

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for June 09, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price dropped 320 pips and tested the level of 1.2634. Anyway, I found that there is strong selling climax (a sign of strength) in the background and a successful test of supply in a low volume, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.2827 and the price of 1.2955.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2775

R2: 1.2845

R3: 1.2900

Support levels:

S1: 1.2655

S2: 1.2615

S3: 1.2540

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 09, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is still trading in a downwards from the level of 0.9733 which represented a major resistance today. The bottom price is seen at 0.9620. The trend has rebounded from the bottom of 0.9620 towards the level of 0.9716. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9733 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9733, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9733 (the level of 0.9733 coincides with a ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9733 so it will be good to sell at 0.9733 with the first target of 0.9620. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9560. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9560. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9803.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 09, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair:
  • There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.7305 or higher. The NZD/USD pair is showing marks of strength following a breakout of the top level of 0.7122. Since the trend is above the 0.7122 level, the market is still in an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7122 - 0.7159 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. On the other hand, if the NZD/USD pair succeeds to break through the support level of 0.7122 today, the market will decline further to 0.7057 for that it will of the wisdom to set your stop loss at the price of 0.7110.The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements.
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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 9, 2017

The Dollar index has confirmed a short-term reversal as we anticipated in our previous analysis and is heading towards 99. The warning signs for Dollar bears were there and we warned them to protect their short positions as a strong bounce was anticipated. We are now bouncing and we have lots of upside room to move.

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Blue line - resistance (broken)

The Dollar index has broken out and above the blue trend line resistance and the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. For the last few sessions I have been calling for a reversal and that I would at least prefer to be neutral rather than bearish. This was not the time to be short the Dollar index. We first need a bounce towards 99. Support is at 97-96.50 and resistance is at 98.50-99.

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Red line - short-term resistance trend line

Blue lines - bearish channel

As expected in our last analysis, the Dollar index was expected to bounce off the lower channel boundary. Price has broken the red trend line resistance and is expected now to move towards the Daily Kumo (cloud). This is not the time to be short on Dollar. The Dollar index has just started its bounce.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 8, 2017

Forex analysis review
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 8, 2017

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for June 9, 2017

For the last few days, I've been bearish Gold expecting a pull back towards $1,250 at least and I have been warning bulls to raise their stops. Gold finally has provided the reversal signals and is already more than 20$ lower than its recent highs.

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The gold price has broken below the kijun-sen and has reached the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart as we initially expected. Short-term support is at $1,265-70. Resistance is at $1,280-85.

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Black line - long-term resistance trend line

Blue line - long-term support

Gold price is getting rejected at the long-term resistance trend line as we expected. Price is above the Weekly Ichimoku cloud and I expect the price to move and test the Kumo (cloud) support. As I said in the previous posts, I do not expect Gold to break the black trend line now but after a backtest of cloud support.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for June 9, 2017

AUD/JPY corrective volatile structure is still in play despite the positive and negative economic reports of the both currencies in the pair. The currency pair is currently residing between the areas of 81.50 to 84.50 and unable to provide any significant trend direction until the price breaks above or below the levels. Despite having worse Trade Balance report yesterday at 0.56B which was expected to be at 1.91B, AUD has managed to gain against JPY with an impulsive bullish move. Today we had AUD Home Loans report which was also published with the worst figure at -1.9% which was expected to be unchanged at -0.9%. The AUD Home Loans report is one of the leading indicators of the economic growth as the more home loans describe more demand in the market where the worst figure seems not to quite dominate the growth of the currency itself. On the JPY side, today M2 Money Stock report was published with a decreased figure to 3.9% from 4.0% previously which was expected to rise to 4.3% but Tertiary Industry Activity report showed a good improvement to 1.2% from -0.3% previously which was expected to be at 0.5%. As of the current situation, AUD is still stronger than JPY despite the negative news on AUD and mixed report of JPY. Currently, a further corrective volatile move is expected in this pair until the price breaks above 84.50 or below 81.50 level with a daily close.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently breaking above the near-term resistance of 83.00 and 20 EMA. The price has already shown rejection of the bears in the market already till now and if we see a daily close above 83.00 level today then we will be looking forward to buying with a target towards 84.50 resistance level in the coming days. The market is currently in a corrective bias and no specific trend move is observed till now.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for June 9, 2017

EUR/GBP showed a great amount of bullish pressure from the first hour today. It moved 140+ pips in an hour bouncing off from 0.8650 to 0.8820. Recently Pound had been suffering from Brexit vote and currently from the General Election effects. The pound is currently quite weaker and it may cause the households to suffer from rising inflation and damaging growth forecasts. Theresa May from the Conservative Party is currently leading in the General Election with 46.9% votes ahead of Jeremy Corbyn from the Labour Party with 39.5% votes. Though the election results are yet to be published we have already observed weakness of the Great British Pound in the market today. Additionally, GBP Manufacturing Production report is going to be published today which is expected to rise to 0.8% from -0.6% previously, Goods Trade Balance is expected to be at -12.0B decreasing from -13.4B, Construction Output is expected to be positive at 0.5% from -0.7% previously and Industrial Production report is also expected to show a rise to 0.7% from -0.5%. Today GBP economic events are quite optimistic in nature which might help the Pound to gain some strength but the market is still under consolidation as of the election results to be published soon. On the EUR side, German Trade Balance is going to be published today which is expected to rise to 20.3B from 19.6B, French Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to 0.3% from 2.0% and Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate is expected to show a decrease in the unemployment rate to 11.6% from 11.9%. To sum up, a good amount of volatility is going to strike the market despite the optimistic economic events on the both currencies and as of the current situation Pound is expected to lose some grounds today against Euro.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has bounced off the 20 EMA dynamic support level today at the first hour of the market. Currently, the price has already engulfed price actions of the previous number of days and as the price remains above the 20 EMA it is expected that the price will head towards 0.8850 resistance soon. The structure of the currency pair is still residing inside the corrective structure and a break above 0.8850 will signal a further bullish move in this pair in the coming days.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 9, 2017

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Wave summary:

Wave ii/ has extended it's decline to 1.5468, which should be more than enough to complete wave ii/ and set the stage for a rally higher in wave iii/ towards 1.6655.

That said, we will need a break above minor resistance seen at 1.5720 to confirm that wave ii/ has completed and wave iii/ is developing.

R3: 1.5720

R2: 1.5667

R1: 1.5594

Pivot: 1.5525

S1: 1.5462

S2: 1.5391

S3: 1.5342

Trading recommendation:

WE are long EUR from 1.5540 and will place our stop at 1.5340.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 9, 2017

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Wave summary:

Important support at 122.53 is still holding firm and should continue to do so for a rally higher towards 134.62 to complete the wave d of the triangle consolidation. Once the wave d is complete a final dip in wave e should be seen before renewed upside pressure is seen through resistance at 125.31 for a rally towards 134.35.

R3: 124.40

R2: 124.04

R1: 123.77

Pivot: 123.50

S1: 123.23

S2: 122.71

S3: 122.53

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 123.55 with stop placed at 122.45. Take profit is seen at 124.50

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 09, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, French Industrial Production m/m, French Gov Budget Balance, German Trade Balance, and German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1243.

Strong Resistance:1.1237.

Original Resistance: 1.1226.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1215.

Target Inner Area: 1.1189.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1163.

Original Support: 1.1152.

Strong Support: 1.1141.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1135.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 09, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m and M2 Money Stock y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Final Wholesale Inventories m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 110.71.

Resistance. 2: 110.49.

Resistance. 1: 110.28.

Support. 1: 110.01.

Support. 2: 109.80.

Support. 3: 109.58.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 09, 2017

The index gained momentum during Thursday's session and it's challenging the strong resistance placed around 96.93, which is the last hurdle ahead of 97.41. Once USDX manages to consolidate above the 200 SMA at H1 chart, then it can go for higher levels and eventually for the psychological zone of 98.00. To the downside, we're still expecting a pullback towards 96.53.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.93 / 97.41

H1 chart's support levels: 96.53 / 96.25

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.53, take profit is at 96.25 and stop loss is at 97.21.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 09, 2017

The pair remains supported by the 200 SMA at H1 chart amid geopolitical concerns and UK elections' result, which could be very decisive for the future of Brexit negotiations. Once the resistance level of 1.2962 is broken, then we might expect a rally towards 1.3018, while a pullback and a break below 1.2892, can make GBP/USD to test the 1.2845 zone.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2962 / 1.3018

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2892 / 1.2845

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2892, take profit is at 1.2845 and stop loss is at 1.2939.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for June 08, 2017

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Overview

The EUR/JPY pair still affected by the intraday negative pressures by consolidating below 124.40 level, to continue forming initial resistance against the bullish rally, thus, we will keep expecting the correctional bearish bias domination for the near term period that targets the initial support line extension around 121.65, supported by the consolidation of the moving average 55 around it. We should note that any attempt to breach the above-mentioned resistance will push the price back to the bullish bias range, to increase the chances of recording more positive targets by reaching 126.10 followed by 127.30. The expected trading range for today is between 124.40 and 121.65.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for June 08, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair was forced to provide intraday positive rebound yesterday to be affected by stochastic sudden rally towards the overbought areas, but the price consolidation below 143.30 barrier allows us to continue suggesting the negative domination until moving towards 38.2% Fibonacci correction level around 140.20. The moving average 55 decline below the mentioned resistance confirms the price affection by the negative pressures, besides, we notice stochastic attempt to exit from the overbought areas, to confirm getting rid of the positive pressure and attempt to resume the negative attack in the near term period. The expected trading range for today is between 142.70 and 140.20

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Daily analysis of Gold for June 08, 2017

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Overview

Gold price settles near 1285.00 after the price decline with the end of yesterday, while stochastic approaches from the oversold levels, to provide a positive motive that we expect to lead the price to resume the main bullish trend, organizes within the bullish channel that appears in the image. Therefore, we will keep preferring the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions unless breaking 1274.00 level and holding it below it, where breaking this level will push the price to test 1254.56 – 1249.94 levels before any new attempt to rise while breaching 1295.37 represents the rally key to 1360.00 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 1274.00 support and 1310.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for June 08, 2017

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Overview

Silver price shows slight bearish bias to approach from retesting the critical support at 17.43, as long as the price above this level, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid on the intraday and short term basis, pointing that the next main target at 18.30. On the other hand, breaking 17.43 level will push the price to visit levels begin at 17.00 and might extend to 16.56 before any new positive attempt. The expected trading range for today is between 17.43 support and 17.80 resistance.

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