Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for December 11, 2014

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The price zone of 1.2880-1.2900 (corresponding to the upper limit of the previous broken channel) was targeted month ago. However, bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840 where the depicted head and shoulders reversal pattern was established.


A bearish breakout off the bullish channel took place soon, thus confirming a flag continuation pattern. Bearish projected target already reached the level around 1.2490.


As anticipated earlier, daily fixation below 1.2490-1.2500 (the origin of the previous bullish swing expressed one month ago) extends the bearish targets towards the price level of 1.2200.


After bears could fixate below 1.2360, the EUR/USD pair has shown bullish recovery again above it due to the lack of bearish pressure below 1.2255.


Price level of 1.2200 remains the projected target of the current bearish flag pattern as long as 1.2360-1.2390 remains defended by the EUR/USD bears.


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A double-top pattern was expressed last week on the 4H chart around 1.2500. As anticipated, fixation below neckline (price level of 1.2430) enhanced the bearish trend on the market.


Today, bulls spiked up to 1.2496. However, the market came back to trade below 1.2400. It could be representing a failed bullish breakout off the upper limit of the depicted movement channel.


Fixation below the technical key-level of 1.2370 is mandatory to maintain enough bearish momentum to push towards 1.2200.


Trade recommendations:


As anticipated before, intraday traders can SHORT the pair anywhere around 1.2410 -1.2450 (prominent Fibonacci Levels). Stop Loss should be set at a four-hour closure above 1.2470.


Target level should be located around the price level of 1.2200.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for December 11, 2014

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As depicted on the chart, the GBP/USD pair was trapped between 1.5890 and 1.6100 for almost 20 days before bearish breakout could take place.


Daily fixation below 1.5870 led bearish pressure to the pair so that it reached the price level of 1.5600 where a new consolidation zone is being established above.


This week, the GBP/USD pair is finding intraday DEMAND around 1.5580-1.5550 where many recent lows were previously established back in November.


The current DAILY price action favors the bullish scenario initially towards 1.5800 provided that the bulls can fixate above 1.5720 soon enough.


The market is still reflecting indecision which may give some time for more sideway movement.


It is either a double-bottom reversal pattern being established above 1.5580 OR another bearish flag pattern that waits for bearish breakout below 1.5550 (similar to what happened back in October).


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The 4H chart reveals the recent downside movement maintained within the limits of the depicted channel.


Conservative traders were waiting for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.5680-1.5710 for a low-risk SELL entry. Stop Loss should be located at 1.5760.


Obvious 4H fixation below the current Fibonacci levels zone (1.5680 - 1.5700 ) indicates an upcoming bearish movement towards 1.5480-1.5500 where the lower limit of the current movement channel is located.


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for December 11, 2014

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Overview


From today's H4 chart, yesterday's closing below the resistance level of 186.70 gave the price an opportunity for a bearish move. As shown on the attached chart, the price is trying to continue its bearish move, but it will hit the strong support area of the support level of 185.00 trying to break it through. In that case, we might get another opportunity for more sell signals, and it opens the way towards the second support level of 184.40 as the first target, and then the price should test the support level to continue its bearish move. But as long as the price stabilizes above the support level of 185.00, it cancels the first scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (187.50), R2 (186.70), R1 (185.80), S1 (185.00), S2 (184.40), S3 (183.80).


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 11, 2014

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Overview :



  • The USD/CAD pair is going to call for a sideways market on December 11, 2014. The price will probably be trapped between the levels of 1.1500 and 1.1443 in order to form a range of 57 pips today. However, risk to reward ratios are important and should be calculated, then a risk (57 pips) reward ratio of 1:1.5 is recommended, it can make a profit of 85 pips. The support sets at the level of 1.1443. Therefore, bulls are going to buy above 1.1443 with the first target at 1.1475, it might resume to 1.1501. It should be also noted that a tripple top is going to set at the price of 1.1501. In consequence, a stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. The resistance is set at the level of 1.1500, so the trend will call for a bearish market at the level of 1.1500, since there is a minor bearish channel. Thus, swing trade at 1.1500 in order to sell with the target at 1.0600.


Tools of the chart :



  • The market is in sideways . Moreover, the trend was so clear because the price moved higher to 1.1500, but the price of the GBP/USD pair has been rebounding lower towards the level of 1.1443.

  • The double bottom is set at the price of 1.1400.

  • The level of 1.1410 is the key level to confirm the bullish market.


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EUR/NZD analysis for December 11, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downward. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5850 in an extremely high volume (selling climax). Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.6145 held successfully, and it made price start with strong downward movement. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support level and I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5850 (currently on the test). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe lack of supply around the price at 1.5850. So, be careful when selling at this stage, but watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6123


R2: 1.6196


R3: 1.6315


Support levels:


S1: 1.5884


S2: 1.5811


S3: 1.5691


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we got strong supply in the background.


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Gold analysis for December 11, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downward. The price tested the level of 1,217.56 in a volume below the average. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,186.00 is broken so we may expect potential testing of the level of 1,255.00-1,265.00. Gold is now in a bearish corrective phase, so I have placed Fibonacci retracement levels to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,218.00 (on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,206.00. My advice is to look for buying opportunities near the lows (after retracement). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe supply in an average volume.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,236.40


R2: 1,239.64


R3: 1,244.87


Support levels:


S1: 1,225.94


S2: 1,122.70


S3: 1,217.47


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 11, 2014

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Overview :



  • The GBP/USD pair will probably be moved between 1.5717 and 1.5540, and it should mean that the range will be about 177 pips this week. In particular, it will be significative to wait for a period of tight sideway range market before trading. Besides, the level of 1.5717 formed a strong resistance. Furthermore, this price is in conformity with 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement levels in the H1 chart. Therefore, it is likely that the market is going to start showing the signs of bearish market. In other words, it will be a good sign to sell below the 1.5717 level with the first target at 1.5637 in order to retest the weekly pivot point. It will fall towards the price of 1.5541 for forming double top. It should also be noted that the weekly support 1 has set at 1.5511. However, if the the pair does not break the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.5637, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 1.5637, and the level will act as strong support. So, it will be a good sign to buy above 1.5637 with the first target at 1.5683, and it will call for an uptrend in order to continue bullish trend towards 1.5791 tomorrow.


Intraday technical levels :


Date: 11/12/2014


Pair: GBP/USD



  • R3: 1.5809

  • R2: 1.5764

  • R1: 1.5737

  • PP: 1.5692

  • S1: 1.5665

  • S2: 1.5620

  • S3: 1.5593


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#USDX technical analysis for December 11, 2014

The Dollar index continued its downward move towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from 87.50. Trend is bearish for the short-term as price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud. Bulls are still alive as long as price is above 87.50. A bounce from current levels will be a bullish signal with new highs as target.


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Support is at 87.50. The long-tailed 4-hour candles from the 78.6% retracement are a bullish sign, but bulls also need to break above 88.57. Making a new lower low below 87.90 will be a bearish sign that will put the low at 87.50 in danger of being broken.


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The weekly chart is also not showing any strength, even the opposite. The big red candle is a bearish reversal signal, however, we still have two more trading days left until the end of the week. Bulls also have this time to push the index higher as they did two weeks ago. It is important whether we see an upward reversal or break 87.50. For now bulls continue to have the upper hand and, I believe, this pull back is another opportunity to go long with the stop loss level close by at 87.50. Next target is 91 as long as our stop is not hit.


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Gold technical analysis for December 11, 2014

Gold price has not managed to break above the important resistance of $1,240 and is pulling back down below the first short-term support of $1,225. The next support is at $1,215. If resistance at $1,240 is broken we will see a move up to $1,260-70. If support fails we will see a move towards $1,200-$1,190.


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Red line = short-term support


Blue line = trend line support


Gold price has been making lower lows and lower highs in the last couple of days, but it still remains above the medium-term upward sloping trend line that comes from $1,140. Breaking below the short-term support of $1,215, we could see a deeper pullback towards $1,200. The upward move from $1,140 may be complete and the entire upward correction may be over. It means that we are at important resistance levels, and that we could see a reversal.


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In the daily chart gold price, as expected, is back testing the breakout area of the Ichimoku cloud. A move back inside the cloud will signal a fake breakout and it will be a very bearish sign. Breaking below $1,180 will increase the chances of the bearish scenario where I expect new lows to come.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 11, 2014

General overview for 11/12/2014 07:30 CET


The 1:1 market geometry corrective move measure has been hit almost to the pip and now market slightly bounced from the level of 146.42 and will make that level an intraday support. The abc green corrective cycle in wave Y brown might be regarded as completed, but to confirm it the market must impulsively break out above the level of 147.33 first, and then test the golden trend line somewhere at the level of 148.32. Otherwise one more leg to the downside still may be expected, with the projected target at the level of 145.70 first.


Support/Resistance:


151.04 - WR1


149.76 - Technical Resistance


149.00 - Weekly Pivot


148.32 - WS1


147.33 - Intraday Resistance


146.42 - Intraday Support


146.34 - WS2


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders: Unfortunately, the sell orders from the level of 147.37 have missed the yesterday's TP at the level of 146.34 by mere 7 pips. So if you are the one who did not close this trade yesterday, please move the SL to the BE and keep waiting.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 11, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair has broken below the trend line support for now as seen here. The pair is trading around 147.20/25 levels for now and could face resistance around 148.00/20 levels. It is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for further reaction at the 148.00/30 levels before initiating positions. The pair could be preparing for a deeper correction into 144.00 and lower levels. Please note that the outer trend line support is also around the 144.00 mark for now. Immediate support is seen at 145.00 levels while resistance is seen at 148.00/30, followed by 149.80 levels respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 11, 2014

General overview for 11/12/2014 07:10 CET


The yesterday's key level has been violated and the market has made another higher high at the level of 1.1501. This level might be considered as the wave v black top, but it does not mean the price will not go any higher than this level. In the matter of fact, only a small corrective cycle is expected now, and further upward wave progression should unfold soon. This view is valid as long as the level of intraday support at 1.1396 is not broken. First targets for the upside are at the levels of 1.1519 and 1.1579.


Support/Resistance:


1.1579 - WR2


1.1519 - WR1


1.1500 - Intraday Resistance


1.1460 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|


1.1416 - Weekly Pivot


1.1396 - Intraday Support


1.1357 - WS1


1.1339 - Leading Diagonal Invalidation Level


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders: yesterday's buy stop entry from the level of 1.1460 should be still kept open, and SL might now be moved to the break even level. First TP is at the level of 1.1519, second TP is at the level of 1.1579.


Swingtraders: please remember that the uptrend is still intact, and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.1189 invalidates the mid-term bullish outlook.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 11, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has been holding above 1.5150 levels for now and is seen to be carving a higher low at sub 1.5175/1.5200 levels for now. Please also note that 1.5150 is the fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between 1.5075 and 1.5350/60. Furthermore the intermediary support trend line and past resistance turned support zone also converge at the same level. Hence it is recommended to remain long for now, with higher probability for the pair to rally through 1.5450 levels in the sessions to come. Immediate support is seen at 1.5075 while resistance is seen at 1.5450 levels respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 1.5000, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for December 11, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has been trading comfortably above $17.00 levels and in the buy zone of immediate downtrend line as seen here. Immediate resistance is now seen at $17.40/50 while support is at $16.10/20 levels respectively. The bulls would like to aim for $17.40/50 levels from here till price remains above $16.20 levels. A meaningful correction can be expected once resistance at $17.40/50 is taken out. Please also note that the inverted head and shoulder reversal still remains possible, provided price remains above $14.50.00 in the sessions to come.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Look to buy lower.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 11, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a two-week low at 117.70 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge jumped 24.45% to 18.53, S&P 500 closed 1.64% lower at 2,026.14 overnight) as oil prices tumbled to fresh five-year lows after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its 2015 demand expectations for crude to the lowest level since 2003, while below-forecast China November CPI data points to weakening growth in the world's second-largest economy. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.171% versus 2.220% late Tuesday), broadly weaker USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 88.23 versus 88.67 early Wednesday) and Japan's export sales. But USD/JPY losses are cushioned by demand from Japan's importers and Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics is falling from overbought levels.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 117.40. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 117.05. The pivot point stands at 118.80. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.40 and the second target at 120.10.


Resistance levels:

119.40

120.10

120.45



Support levels:
117.40

117.05

116.75


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 11, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate in a lower range as markets await 0830 GMT Swiss National Bank interest rate decision, SNB is expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged. USD/CHF is undermined by broadly weaker USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 88.23 versus 88.67 early Wednesday). But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is tilting negative as stochastics falling from overbought levels, MACD is turning bearish.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9302. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9590. The pivot point stands at 0.9720. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9755 and the second target at 0.9790.


Resistance levels:

0.9755

0.9790

0.9835


Support levels:

0.9615

0.9590

0.9545


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 11, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after spiking to a six-day high at 0.7831 overnight following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to keep the official cash rate at 3.5%. NZD/USD jumped as the RBNZ unexpectedly reaffirmed its tightening bias in its policy statement after having dropped references to rate hikes in October, BNP Paribas says. NZD/USD is also supported by the broadly weaker dollar undertone and Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the increased investor risk aversion and weak commodity prices.


Technical Comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish at oversold levels.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7860 and the second target at 0.79. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7660. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.7610. The pivot point is at 0.7730.


Resistance levels:

0.7860

0.79

0.7945



Support levels:
0.7660

0.7610

0.7565


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 11, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias. It is undermined by the increased investor risk aversion and Japan's export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are cushioned by the demand from Japan's importers. However, GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 184.65 and the second target at 184. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 187.30. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 187.85. The pivot point is at 186.45.


Resistance levels:

187.30

187.85

188.35


Support levels:

184.65

184

183.35


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 11 - 2014

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Technical summary:


Support at 1.6028 held perfect for the next attack on the resistance line. As expected, it broke for a rally higher towards 1.6273, but suddenly near 1.6200 prices ran into a brick wall and took an awful dive. Should we be afraid? When prices collapse like this, we should always be careful, but we regard this decline as wave ii and will be looking for wave iii higher to at least 1.6526, where wave iii will be 161.8% of wave i. In the short term, only a break below 1.5789 will invalidate the bullish outlook.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.6010 was hit for a nice profit. We will buy EUR again at 1.5915 or upon a break above 1.5984 with a stop at 1.5775.


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Technical Analysis of USD/CAD for December 11, 2014

IMPACT ON THE USD-


Today, the focus has shifted to retail sales, core retail sales, and unemployment data. China's economy slowdown supported demand for the Yen and pushed the US dollar lower against most of the currencies.


IMPACT ON THE CAD-


Today, the focus has shifted to the speech of BOC Governor Poloz.


At yesterday's session, the pair made a double top at 1.1502 and closed at 1.1482. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note, opened higher at 1.1481. Until the prices trades and close below 1.1502, we can witness weakness. In case if the prices close above 1.1502 on a daily basis, it can challenge 1.1540, 1.1565, and 1.1575 in the near term. For an intraday session, we recommend buying only above 1.1485 (today's high) until the current market price 1.1482 remain on the selling side. The intraday support exists at 1.1430. In case, an hourly candle closes below 1.1455, it can extend its fall up to 1.1430 and 1.1400. Today's major US data will determine the trend.


Trade:


Buy above 1.1485.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 11 - 2014

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Technical summary:


The correction from 149.13 continues to unfold as expected. Wave c of the expanded flat should continue lower to 144.79 as the first target. That said, wave c is allowed to extend and therefore, we could see a move lower to 143.40 and maybe even 141.64 where this correction would have corrected 50% of the rally from 134.14 to 149.13. Short-term resistance at 148.25 should protect the upside for the continuation lower to 144.79.


Trading recommendation:


We are short in EUR from 147.97 and will move our stop lower to 148.35. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 147.75 with the same stop at 148.35.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on Gold for December 11, 2014

After a big gain, the metal faced resistance at $1,240.00. The metal made a double top at $1,237.90 and corrected a bit at yesterday's session. Ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting next week, the metal is looking mildly strong. The Federal Open Market Committee will undertake a monetary policy review at a 2-day meeting next week on 16-17 December, 2014. The policy meeting will be keenly watched for any hints on the timing of the interest rates hike. Today, the focus has shifted to retail sales, core retail sales, and unemployment data. Today, the pair held the previous low and is trading in the marginal green. Gold has immediate resistance at $1,235.00, above this $1,237.90 and $1,240.00 will act as strong resistance levels. The safe buying will trigger above $1,240.00. The metal prices are taking support at $1,223.00 and $1,220.00. We recommend risk selling below $1,223.00 and safe selling below $1,220.00. In case if the prices fall below $1,220.00, we can expect panic towards $1,213.00 and $1,209.00. The hourly trading view still favours bears. The prices are trading and closed below 35DEMA on the H1 chart. In case if the prices close below $1,209.00, then bears will hold their grip towards $1,200.00. The trading pattern is framed between $1,237.90 and $1,224.30. Breakout of any side will provide further room to trade.


Strong momentum only above $1,240.00.


Double top is at $1,237.90.


Panic selling is below $1,209.00.


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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for December 11, 2014

IMPACT ON THE USD-


Today, the focus has shifted to retail sales, core retail sales, and unemployment data. The Chinese disappointing data supported the demand for the Yen and pushed the US dollar lower against most of the currencies. The Greece political instability and China's economy slowdown put pressure on the US dollar at the yesterday's session.


TECHNICAL VIEW


The pair rose notably at the previous session and managed to close above 20Dsma. The cable has intraday parallel resistances at 1.5726 and 1.5764 and weekly resistance at 1.5826. We recommend fresh intraday buying above 1.5726 with the targets at 1.5760 and 1.5800. The pair has support at 1.5725, 1.5690, and 1.5650. The selling pressure will emerge only below 1.5680. This bullish view is only for the near term. Today's US data can weigh the pair. Positive readings of the US reports can trigger selling pressure. We recommend selling below 1.5680 levels.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 11, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Final CPI m/m, French CPI m/m, ECB Monthly Bulletin, Italian Industrial Production m/m, and Targeted LTRO. The US will publish a batch of macroeconomic reports as the Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m, Business Inventories m/m, Natural Gas Storage, and 30-y Bond Auction. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2552.

Strong Resistance:1.2544.

Original Resistance: 1.2532.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2520.

Target Inner Area: 1.2490.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2460.

Original Support: 1.2448.

Strong Support: 1.2436.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2428.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 11, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the Core Machinery Orders m/m and Tertiary Industry Activity m/m. The US will publish a batch of economic reports such as Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m, Business Inventories m/m, Natural Gas Storage, and 30-y Bond Auction. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 118.70.

Resistance. 2: 118.47.

Resistance. 1: 118.24.

Support. 1: 117.96.

Support. 2: 117.73.

Support. 3: 117.49.

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Review and intraday trading recommendations on EUR/USD for December 11, 2014

IMPACT ON THE EURO-


The focus has shifted to today's major key event TLTRO result. In yesterday's French data again, it was disappointed we expected an uptick. French industrial output fell in October as the production of energy, agricultural and food products declined on the month, official data showed . Industrial production in the Euro zone's second largest economy fell 0.8% in October compared with September, the national statistics agency Insee said. On the jobs data it was also disappointed . In Q3 2014, payroll employment in principally market sectors decreased sharply by 0.3% q-o-q (-55,200 jobs), after a slight increase in the previous quarter as per agency Insee.


IMPACT ON THE USD-


Today the focus has shifted to retail sales, core retail sales and unemployment data. The Chinese concern supported the demand for the Yen, pushed the US dollar lower against most of the currencies.


TECHNCIAL VIEW


The pair rose strongly at the previous session and managed to close above 20Dsma. The pair closed at the highest level at the previous session. Yesterday, we recommended buying above 1.2400 with the targets at 1.2450, 1.2500, and 1.2530. Today, the pair made a high at 1.2450. We are still waiting patiently for the next targets higher. The pair has resistance at 1.2456, above this it can challenge 1.2500 and 1.2507. In case if the prices break out above 1.2507, it can extend its challenge towards 1.2525 and 1.2531. This bullish view is only for the near term. Today's US data can affect the pair. The support level exists at 1.2450, 1.2425, and 1.2400. We recommend selling below 1.2395 with the targets at 1.2360, 1.2340, and 1.2300. The longer-term picture still favour to the bears.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 11, 2014

EUR/USD: EUR/USD has been making attempts to go bullish this week. The movement this week has been bullish so far, and this has threatened the recent bearish outlook in the market. From the support line at 1.2250, price has gone upward by nearly 200 pips. A touch of the resistance line at 1.2500 would mean the end of the bearish outlook.


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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument has been making attempts to go bearish this week. The movement this week has been bearish so far, but it would not be said that the bullish bias is over unless price closes below the support level at 0.9600. Further weakness in the Greenback may bring about this expectation.


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GBP/USD: The Cable has also gotten engaged in a slow and steady bullish run – something that has resulted in a new bullish bias. Slowly and steadily, price could reach the distribution territory at 1.5800, and this is something that would strengthen the novel bullish bias.


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USD/JPY: The bias on USD/JPY has gone bearish and price is now trading below the supply level at 118.00. Further weakness in the market could take price to the demand level at 117.00, which is the next target for bears. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have impact on the markets.


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EUR/JPY: So far this week, this cross has been trending downwards and this has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. The EMA 11 has just crossed the EMA 56 to the downside and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The next target to be attained is the demand zone at 145.50.


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Daily analysis of USDX for December 11, 2014

On the H4 chart, the USDX has had a fairly strong bearish trend for several days, as this instrument is currently finding support at the 88.27 level. This area could serve as a strong support for the USDX, but remember that this instrument could be looking down to the support level of 87.93, which would be an approximation to the 200-day moving average. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


Daily chart's resistance levels: 88.44 / 88.65


Dailychart's support levels: 88.19 / 87.93


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The USDX found strong resistance at the 88.71 level, where the 200-day moving average is located on the H1 chart. Now, the USDX is trying to form a lower low pattern below the resistance level of 88.43. The nearest support is the level of 88.15 and if the USDX makes a breakout there, it would be expected to fall to the level of 87.86. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 88.43 / 88.71


H1 chart's support levels: 88.15 / 87.86


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 88.43, take profit is at 88.71, and stop loss is at 88.14.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 11, 2014

The GBP/USD pair is conducting a breakout at the level of 1.5698, because this pair intends to go up to where the 200-day moving average is located on the H4 chart. This move is probably since the GBP/USD pair managed to consolidate above the bearish trend line that was putting pressure on the level of 1.5650. However, for the rest of the week, movements in a low range are expected.


H4chart's resistance levels: 1.5811 / 1.5874


H4chart's support levels: 1.5698 / 1.5589


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On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair found dynamic support at the 200-day moving average after forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 1.5632. Technically, the GBP/USD pair could rise to the resistance level of 1.5739. However, the bearish outlook is still valid for this pair as on higher charts, GBP/USD is below the 200-day moving average.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5739 / 1.5810


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5686 / 1.5632


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5686, take profit is at 1.5632, and stop loss is at 1.5739.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 10, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a six-day low of 117.90 on Tuesday. It is undermined by the selling of the yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 4.79% to 14.89, S&P 500 fell as low as 2,034.17 overnight before closing roughly flat at 2,056.59 versus the previous close of 2,060.31) as investor sentiment soured after China on Tuesday unexpectedly tightened credit conditions to rein in lending, triggering a 5.31% plunge in Shanghai Composite for sharpest fall in five years. At the same time, the fears over the integrity of the European monetary union were reignited after the Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samara moved forward a high-stakes parliamentary vote for president. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.216% versus 2.257% late Monday) and broadly weaker USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 88.67 versus 89.10 early Tuesday) and Japan's export sales. But USD sentiment is soothed by the stronger-than-expected rise in the USA NFIB index of small business optimism to 98.1 in November from 96.1 in October (versus the forecast of 96.5) and a bigger-than-expected 0.4% increase in the USA October wholesale inventories (versus the forecast of +0.3%), the rise in the USA IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 48.4 in December from 46.4 in November. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from the Japanese import and Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as the MACD histogram bars are turned negative, stochastics is falling from overbought levels, bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit on Tuesday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 117.90. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 117.40. The pivot point stands at 119.55. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.10 and the second target at 120.50.


Resistance levels:

120.10

120.50

120.75


Support levels:

117.90

117.40

117


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 10, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-day low 0.9652 on Tuesday. CHF sentiment is boosted by the lower-than-expected Switzerland November unemployment rate of 3.1% (versus forecast 3.2%). USD/CHF is also undermined by the broadly weaker USD undertone. But USD/CHF downside is limited by the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9705. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9675. The pivot point stands at 0.9735. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9770 and the second target at 0.9795.


Resistance levels:

0.9770

0.9795

0.9820


Support levels:

0.9705

0.9675

0.9635


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 10, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-and-a-half-year low of 0.7606 on Tuesday as the market awaits 20:00 GMT (Thursday 9 a.m. NZ time) the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision. The RBZ is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.5%. The kiwi sentiment is dented after Fonterra lowered its payout to dairy farmers from the previous forecast of NZ$5.30 to NZ$4.70. NZD/USD is also weighed by the kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the broadly weaker USD undertone and NZD/USD interest differential.


Technical Comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at the oversold levels, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7770 and the second target at 0.7820. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7610. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.7565. The pivot point is at 0.7660.


Resistance levels:

0.7770

0.7820

0.7860



Support levels:
0.7610

0.7565

0.7525


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 10, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the reduced investor risk appetite and Japan's export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers. But sterling sentiment is dented by a sudden 0.1% monthly drop in the UK October industrial production (versus forecast +0.2%) and a surprise 0.7% monthly fall in the UK October manufacturing output (versus forecast +0.2%).


Technical comment:

Daily chart is tilting negative as MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics is turning bearish.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 185.75 and the second target at 185.10. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 188.45. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 189.20. The pivot point is at 187.85.


Resistance levels:

188.45

189.20

189.75


Support levels:

185.75

185.10

184.75


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