Indicator analysis. Daily review for EUR/USD pair on May 15, 2020

The EUR/USD pair moved down and tested the support line 1.0788 (blue bold line) on Thursday and then increased. Today, the price can rebound from the pullback level of 76.4% - 1.0797 (red dotted line) and then likely begin to move up. On Friday, strong calendar news is expected at 8.00 Universal time (Euro), 12.30 and 14.00 Universal time (dollar).

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market from the level of - 1.0807 (closing of yesterday's candlestick) can start to move up with the target of 1.0864 - a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line). It is very likely that from this level, the price can continue to develop upwards with the target of 1.0894 - a pullback level of 50% (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will continue to move up with the target of 1.0894 - a pullback level of 50% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario: working down to reach a pullback level of 85.4% - 1.0770 (red dashed line) from a pullback level of 14.6% - 1.0804 (blue dashed line).

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for May 15

Forecast for May 15:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0922, 1.0895, 1.0853, 1.0831, 1.0800, 1.0778, 1.0746, 1.0723 and 1.0694. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the downward movement of May 13. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.0800 - 1.0778. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.0746. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.0746 - 1.0723. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0694. Upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.0831 - 1.0853. The breakdown of the last level will favor the development of an upward trend. In this case, the first target is 1.0895. For the potential level for the top, we consider 1.0922, near which we expect consolidation.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the bottom of May 13

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0831 Take profit: 1.0850

Buy: 1.0856 Take profit: 1.0895

Sell: 1.0800 Take profit: 1.0780

Sell: 1.0776 Take profit: 1.0746

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2372, 1.2302, 1.2258, 1.2143, 1.2093, 1.2026 and 1.1986. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of May 8 and currently expect to reach the level of 1.2143. A short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2143 - 1.2093. We consider the level of 1.1986 to be a potential value for the bottom, the expressed movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2093. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1986 - 1.2026.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2258 - 1.2302. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the potential target is 1.2372. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of May 8

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2258 Take profit: 1.2300

Buy: 1.2304 Take profit: 1.2370

Sell: 1.2143 Take profit: 1.2098

Sell: 1.2090 Take profit: 1.2026

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9810, 0.9788, 0.9772, 0.9750, 0.9720, 0.9701 and 0.9664. Here, the price issued expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle of May 13. We expect further upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 0.9750. In this case, the target is 0.9772. A short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9772 - 0.9788. We consider the level 0.9810 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9720 - 0.9701, hence there is a high probability of an upward reversal. The breakdown of the level of 0.9701 will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is 0.9664.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 13

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9750 Take profit: 0.9786

Buy : 0.9790 Take profit: 0.9810

Sell: 0.9720 Take profit: 0.9702

Sell: 0.9698 Take profit: 0.9665

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.09, 107.91, 107.67, 107.46, 107.15, 107.02, 106.73, 106.45, 106.08 and 105.84. Here, we are following the formation of the descending structure of May 11. At the moment, the price is in correction and has formed a small potential for the top. We expect a short-term downward movement in the range of 107.15 - 107.02. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a resumption of a downward trend. In this case, the first target is 106.73. The breakdown of which will allow us to expect movement to the level of 106.45. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 106.45 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 106.08. We consider the level of 105.84 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

We expect the development of the rising structure from May 14 after the breakdown of 107.46. Here, the first goal is 107.67. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.67 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 107.91. We consider the level of 108.09 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

The main trend is the descending structure of May 11, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.47 Take profit: 107.65

Buy : 107.69 Take profit: 107.90

Sell: 107.00 Take profit: 106.75

Sell: 106.71 Take profit: 106.47

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.4292, 1.4234, 1.4189, 1.4124, 1.4071, 1.4040, 1.4006 and 1.3952. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of May 11. The continuation of the further upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.4124. In this case, the target is 1.4189. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on movement to 1.4234. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.4292. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.4040 - 1.4006. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the target is 1.3952. This level is a key support for the top. We expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed before it.

The main trend is the upward cycle of May 11, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.4125 Take profit: 1.4187

Buy : 1.4191 Take profit: 1.4230

Sell: 1.4038 Take profit: 1.4006

Sell: 1.4003 Take profit: 1.3955

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6561, 0.6521, 0.6485, 0.6456, 0.6420, 0.6386, 0.6362, 0.6326 and 0.6303. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of May 11. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6420. In this case, the target is 0.6386. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6386 - 0.6362. The breakdown of the level of 0.6362 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.6326. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6303. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.6456 - 0.6485. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6521. This level is a key support for the downward structure and the price passing this will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the potential goal is 0.6561.

The main trend is the descending structure of May 11

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6456 Take profit: 0.6483

Buy: 0.6486 Take profit: 0.6520

Sell : 0.6420 Take profit : 0.6386

Sell: 0.6360 Take profit: 0.6326

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 117.81, 117.49, 117.00, 116.79, 116.20, 115.85, 115.42, 115.18 and 114.43. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the ascending structure from May 6, which requires passage of the noise range 115.42 - 115.18. In this case, the potential target is 114.43.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 115.85 - 116.20. The breakdown of the last level will have the subsequent development of an upward trend. Here, the goal is 116.79. The price passing the noise range of 116.79 - 117.00 will lead to movement to the level of 117.49. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 117.81. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 6, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 115.85 Take profit: 116.20

Buy: 117.00 Take profit: 117.47

Sell: 115.15 Take profit: 114.50

Sell: Take profit:

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 132.18, 131.58, 131.07, 130.30, 129.67, 129.10, 128.38 and 127.93. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of May 11. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 130.30. In this case, the target is 129.67. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 129.67 - 129.10. The breakdown of level 129.10 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 128.38. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 127.93. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 131.07 - 131.58. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 132.18. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the descending structure of May 11

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 131.07 Take profit: 131.55

Buy: 131.60 Take profit: 132.16

Sell: 130.30 Take profit: 129.70

Sell: 129.65 Take profit: 129.12

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USD/CHF Price Movement For May 15, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, we see the upward bias of the Pitchfork. Besides, we also see that the CCI (30) now is above the 0 level. From this technical view, we understand that USD/CHF is now moving with the bullish bias, trying to reach 0.9754 as the first target and 0.9783 as the second target. The bullish bias will go on as long as the pair does not retrace downwards below 0.9722.

(Disclaimer)

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AUD/USD. Aussie held back: traders ignored disastrous labor market data

Traders of the AUD/USD pair ignored the Australian labor market data yesterday. The release was expected to be negative, although not without pleasant surprises. However, market participants ignored both the positive and negative sides of an important publication. The aussie is stuck in a narrow-range flat in the middle of the 64th figure, showing only rare price hitches this week. Traders are clearly in no hurry to open large positions against the background of a contradictory fundamental picture. And yet, in my opinion, the AUD/USD pair retains the potential for further growth, to the next resistance level of 0.6570 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). Prioritizing the upward direction is evidenced by both fundamental and technical analysis.

But let's go back to the labor market data. First of all, it should be noted that the figures already sufficiently reflect the consequences of the coronavirus crisis. The Australian authorities imposed a quarantine in late March and early April, gradually tightening restrictive measures. The previous release only covered the period up to mid-March, so it turned out to be quite good - unemployment marginally rose (to 5.2%), and the number of employed did not decrease, but even increased-by 0.7 thousand. Yesterday's data, of course, was much worse. Although the unemployment rate here was a pleasant surprise - experts anticipated an increase to 8.5%, while it increased only to 6.2%. But the indicator of growth in the number of employed people was really disappointing: most analysts predicted a reduction in the indicator by a record 575,000, but it collapsed by almost 600,000. The structure of the indicator shows that full employment decreased by almost 230,000, partial employment - by more than 370,000. The share of the economically active population fell to 63%.

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Commenting on published figures, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that the Australians "should be ready to receive new bad news," apparently referring to the next release. Indeed, the May data will cover part of April and almost full May, so it is unlikely that these figures will differ from yesterday for the better. And yet, despite such bearish information, the pair showed only a slight formal decline, then it returned back to the middle of the 64th figure.

In my opinion, the aussie is not focusing on current statistics, but on future prospects. Morrison also announced that the economy is now restarting and will recover quite quickly - unless, of course, the country faces the second wave of the epidemic. This position is consonant with the position of the Reserve Bank of Australia, whose economists predicted economic recovery in the second half of the year.

Let me remind you that on May 8, the Australian government announced the gradual removal of quarantine introduced due to the coronavirus epidemic - this is a week earlier than planned. At the same time, some states began to relax coronavirus restrictions even earlier. The government has announced a three-stage plan to ease quarantine measures - according to declared intentions, by July, nearly one million people should return to work. Schools, cafes and restaurants have already started working (still with some restrictions).

This fact supported the Australian currency, but subsequent reports that large Australian states refused to weaken quarantine quenched the upward momentum of AUD/USD. It became known that New South Wales and Victoria, where Sydney and Melbourne are located and which account for almost two thirds of coronavirus cases in the country, have decided so far to mitigate only those quarantine measures that relate to small and medium-sized businesses.

Nevertheless, representatives of these states this week announced that they would join the national quarantine exit plan if the positive trend in incidence rates continued. Therefore, the bears did not have time to take advantage of this information.

So now traders are waiting for new information that would help the bears or bulls of the pair break out of the flat. As you can see, negative fundamental factors are either ignored by the market or have a short-term effect. Even the general surge in anti-risk sentiment, which was due to the increased risk of the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic, did not affect the mood of the pair traders.

In my opinion, AUD/USD will soon follow the US currency, as the Australian dollar demonstrates complete passivity and apathy. This means that macroeconomic reports from the US will take the spotlight today - first of all, we are talking about the release of data on the volume of retail sales. According to the general forecast, the April indicator will update the anti-record - taking into account car sales, it will collapse by 11%, excluding - by almost 9%. If real numbers turn out to be worse than even such a pessimistic forecast, the pair could again try to approach the 65th figure, with the subsequent attempt to test it.

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From a technical point of view, the AUD/USD pair was able to stay between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator over the past four days, as well as above all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which continues to demonstrate a bullish Parade of Lines signal. This suggests that the pair maintains the growth potential to the intermediate resistance level of 0.6500 and the main growth target of 0.6570 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for May 15, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broken below another technical support located at the level of 1.2246 and made a new local low at the level of 1.2165. Despite the oversold market conditions the momentum remains negative well and the odds for another wave down might be higher. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2246 and 1.2297 and the nearest technical support is located at the level of 1.2165. If the level of 1.2165 is clearly violated, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2012.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2730

WR2 - 1.2608

WR1 - 1.2508

Weekly Pivot - 1.2380

WS1 - 1.2283

WS2 - 1.2157

WS3 - 1.2054

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences has decreased among the global investors on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal will be possible when the coronavirus pandemic is tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for May 15, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After the rejection from the level of 50% Fibonacci located at 1.0892 due to a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern that was made at the end of the wave up, the EUR/USD pair has been seen moving slowly lower day by day. The bears are pushing the price towards the level of 1.0767 again. The bulls hasn't made a new local high yet, so the next target for them is still seen at the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0921. This level must be clearly violated in order to rally towards the swing high at 1.1017. The momentum remains neutral, but might turn negative any time now.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1136

WR2 - 1.1058

WR1 - 1.0936

Weekly Pivot - 1.0853

WS1 - 1.0718

WS2 - 1.0627

WS3 - 1.0520

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences has decreased among the global investors on the financial markets. On the EUR/USD pair the main long term trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 15, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Proof of Stake Alliance revealed that it is taking critical steps to improve the regulatory space around the Staking-as-a-Service (STaaS) market, including dialogue with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

According to the announcement, POSA met with the SEC to discuss the growing popularity of Proof-of-Stake (PoS) protocols - the successor to the Bitcoin Proof-of-Work Consensus protocol, which is perceived as being more efficient and scalable. Staking allows token holders to earn from blocked amounts of the native network token, which in turn supports overall network performance. POSA submitted a white paper containing a legal analysis of the international law firm Paul Hastings LLP and stated that the "legal analysis" dialogue was ongoing.

Meetings with the SEC took place in February, which educated the agency on PoS technology and discussed the legal framework for STaaS offers. POSA looked at a set of industry standards that anticipate potential regulatory problems, including asking STaaS suppliers to refrain from investment advice, avoiding financial industry terminology (e.g., "interest", "dividend" or "income"), focusing on security and participation in the network, and avoidance of guarantees regarding the size of prizes.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high located at the level of $205, but there was a Pin Bar candlestick made at the top of the move. Currently, ETH is hovering around the technical resistance located at $198.71 and in a case of violation of this level, the bulls might rally towards the trend line resistance located around the level of $208. The momentum turns to positive, so it supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $241.59

WR2 - $228.78

WR1 - $204.66

Weekly Pivot - $191.03

WS1 - $168.45

WS2 - $154.83

WS3 - $130.49

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the second wave of coronavirus consequences has decreased among the global investors on the financial markets, nevertheless the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 15, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV hash rate after a dramatic fall following halving in April returned to normal after Bitcoin hash rate declined to May 11

According to data, the Bitcoin Cash hash rate increased by more than 90%, from 1.43 Exahash / second (EH / s) on May 10 to 2.74 EH / s on May 13. BSV also increased from 1.1 EH / s to 1.78 EH / s. Both BCH and BSV experienced a sharp decline in production immediately after reducing the number of awards on April 8 and April 10, respectively. BCH hash rate dropped by over 80% within two days after block prizes fell from 12.5 to 6.25 BCH. BSV also observed a decline as miners transferred their computing power to the Bitcoin chain.

After April halving, Bitcoin blocks were one of the most profitable cryptocurrency mining operations. In anticipation of Bitcoin's halving, it was anticipated that miners with less efficient platforms would turn off their machines when revenues fall. To date, Bitcoin hash rate has dropped by 24% - from 137 EH / s before halving, to 104 EH / s - but not to the extent that BCH and BSV have experienced after their halving.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD has been hovering around the level of $9,380 after a failed rally towards the $10,000 swing high. The local high was made at the level of $9,871 when the Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made , quite similar to Shooring Star. Please notice, this is the supply zone for the last rally as well. Any breakout higher will open the road towards the level of $10,000 again. Positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,485

WR2 - $10,709

WR1 - $9,512

Weekly Pivot - $8,760

WS1 - $7,652

WS2 - $6,835

WS3 - $5,708

Trading Recommendations:

The recent rally in Bitcoin was made in anticipation of Bitcoin halving and it is a classic pump and dump scheme. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.

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Trump threatens China with tariffs. Euro and pound are under less pressure.

Signals for the EUR/USD pair:

If the pair breaks through at 1.0818, the euro is likely to increase to 1.0856 and 1.0895.

A breakthrough at 1.0772 can lead to a sell-off of the euro at 1.0728 and 1.0636.

Signals for the GBP/USD pair:

If the pair breaks through at the level of 1.2225, the British pound can rise to 1.2275 and 1.2323.

A breakthrough at 1.2170 can lead to a sell-off of the British pound at 1.2127 and 1.2030.

The following fundamental data is set for release during the day:

  • German GDP
  • Eurozone GDP
  • France Consumer Price Index
  • US retail sales
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 15 - 2020

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EUR/JPY corrected perfectly to the 61.8% target at 115.33 before going higher as expected. We will now be looking for a break above minor resistance at 116.38. A break above resistance at 116.86 will confirm that the next impulsive rally in wave iii/ is in motion to 119.34 and likely even closer to 121.16 on the way higher to 122.88. There we find strong resistance.

Short-term support is seen at 115.77 and strong support is seen at 115.48. It should be able to protect the downside and send EUR/JPY higher again.

R3: 116.86

R2: 116.37

R1: 115.92

Pivot: 115.77

S1: 115.61

S2: 115.48

S3: 115.29

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 115.65 and have our stop placed at 114.35 for now

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on May 15 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Bulls actively defend support 1.2170, which

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday, I drew attention to purchases right away on a rebound in the region of a rather interesting level of 1.2170. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how only a single test of this area resulted in a sharp rebound of the pair, and so the pair could not return to the 1.2170 level. This suggests that the bulls are trying to build an upward corrective momentum, but as we can see on the chart, they have problems in the resistance area of 1.2225. This level is their key goal for the first half of the day, since a test of it while consolidating above will be a signal to open long positions in continuing the upward correction and updating the highs of 1.2275 and 1.2323, where I recommend taking profits. If there are no active purchases above 1.2225, it is best to wait for the pound to fall to the low of 1.2170 or to the larger area of 1.2127, and then open long positions from there only when a false breakout is formed. I recommend buying the pound for a rebound only from a major support of 1.2030, the test of which will indicate that a major downward movement for the pair will form.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears have kept the market under their control, but they might miss at any moment. Therefore, the primary task of sellers of the pound will be to break the range of 1.2170, since this scenario will return major players to the market and they can sharply pull down the pound to the area of lows of 1.2127 and 1.2030, where I recommend taking profits. A more optimal and safe scenario for opening short positions will be forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2225, where the moving averages are also currently held. But you can sell the pound immediately for a rebound after testing the highs of 1.2275 and 1.2323, based on a downward movement of about 30-40 points by the end of the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is slightly below 30 and 50 moving averages. This suggests that bears can miss the market at any time.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.2230 will lead to a powerful bullish momentum. A break of the lower border at 1.2170 will increase pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for May 15 - 2020

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GBP/JPY has broken clearly through short-term key-support at 131.88 indicating more downside pressure towards 128.53 on the way to just below 123.99. So, it is likely to complete the final decline from 147.95.

Short-term resistance is now seen at 131.88 (former support turns to resistance). Ideally, this resistance will continue to protect the upside for a continued downside pressure towards 128.53 and below. Only an unexpected break above resistance at 133.19 will invalidate our bearish view.

R3: 133.19

R2: 131.81

R1: 131.30

Pivot: 130.75

S1: 130.11

S2: 129.72

S3: 129.13

Trading recommendation:

We sold GBP at 131.88 and have our stop+revers placed at 133.20

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The NZD/USD Price Movement For May 15, 2020

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, Kiwi is now decreasing. This can be confirmed by the CCI (30)/ The pair is dropping bellow the 100, 0, & -100 level with a down slope pitchfork channel. This pair will try to reach the nearest liquidity pool at 0.5954 as the first target and the 0.5907 as the second target before it hits the middle line from the pitchfork. The scenario is unlikely to come true unless the NZD/USD pair does not rise above the 0.6013 level.

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 15 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Pressure on the euro is weakening, but

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's report on the US labor market did not result in a serious surge in volatility, and the bulls did not manage to get past the highs of the day and continue the upward correction against the US dollar. The buy signal, which I discussed in detail in the forecast for the second half of the day, also did not bring the expected profit, as the pair remained in the side channel. Important reports on the GDP of Germany and the eurozone are now expected in the first half of the day, which could result in a breakthrough and consolidation above the 1.0818 level, as well as continuing the euro's growth in the area of 1.0856. The long-term goal will be the high of 1.0895, where I recommend taking profits. Another important task is to support 1.0772, where forming a false breakout in the first half of the day will be a signal to buy the euro. Otherwise, in case of worse eurozone data than economists expect, it is best to consider buying the euro from the low of 1.0728, or open long positions immediately on a rebound from the support of 1.0636 while expecting a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers will retain control of the intermediate resistance area of 1.0818, where they will try to form a false breakout in the first half of the day, which will lead to maintaining pressure on the euro and pulling down the pair to the lower border of the side channel of 1.0772. The further direction of the market will depend on the breakout of this level. If the bears manage to gain a foothold below this range after weak fundamental statistics for Germany and France, it is likely that sales will increase, which will lead to a test of the lows of 1.0728 and 1.0636, where I recommend taking profits. If a critical downward movement from the resistance of 1.0818 does not happen in the first half of the day, it is best to defer short positions to test the high of 1.0856, or even to sell directly to the rebound from the resistance 1.0895 based on a correction of 30-35 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.0818 will cause the euro to sharply grow. Pressure on the euro will be limited by the lower border of the indicator at 1.0780.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 15, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 12 points as a result of yesterday. The price did not attack the signal level for the bearish players at 1.0767 and began to consolidate in front of it. Consolidating under the indicated level opens up the movement to the embedded line of the price channel of the weekly chart, to the area of 1.0590. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is just below the border of the growth territory, in front of the indicator is a large empty space. The decline may be lower than the specified target.

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The price is consolidating below the MACD line on the four-hour chart. A similar consolidation is taking place along the Marlin oscillator. We are waiting for the price to overcome the control level of 1.0767, which will be a signal to open short positions.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 15, 2020

GBP/USD

Despite the strong intraday fluctuations of the British pound in the last four days, its quote goes lower and lower every day. Yesterday, the price consolidated below the MACD indicator line, the Marlin oscillator slightly fell in the negative trend zone. Immediate target at 1.1935 has become even more tangible.

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The price consolidated under the Fibonacci level of 161.8% on the four-hour chart. The pound is declining today in the Asian session. Marlin also unfolds in front of the border of the growth territory. We look forward to pulling down the British pound.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on May 15, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar traded in the range of over 60 points on Thursday, closing the day with symbolic growth. The Marlin indicator does not pay attention to the price and goes down its way, trying to move into the declining trend zone, with only a little bit left. The aussie's first target is 0.6348 - to support the embedded line of the price channel, then 0.6255 to support the MACD line.

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The price exceeded the MACD line on the four-hour chart, remaining under the red balance indicator line, which indicates the falsity of such an exit, at least for the moment. The Marlin oscillator is also in no hurry to leave the declining trend zone. We are waiting for the price to return under the MACD line and movement to the first target of 0.6348.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on May 15, 2020

USD/JPY

The US stock index S&P 500 grew 1.15% on Thursday, due to moderately positive corporate reports. But this is happening against the backdrop of another aggravation of US relations with China, as America accuses the latter of spreading the viral infection.

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On the daily chart of the USD/JPY pair, the price touched the strong resistance of the embedded line of the price channel and the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator turned out to be slightly above the border with the growth zone, which so far is accepted as the movement of the signal line of the indicator along the zero line. A change in trend will occur only if the price consolidates above these resistances.

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The price went above the indicator lines on the four-hour chart, Marlin is in a slight positive, but all this local growth occurs in the process of struggle of the bulls and bears, therefore it is too early to talk about consolidating any tendencies. If the price consolidates below the MACD line (107.15), the 106.56 target reopens in front of the yen. Consolidating under the level opens the prospect of a medium-term decline to goals: 105.10, 103.96, 102.30.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. May 15. The split is maturing not only in the European Union. In the UK, Wales, Scotland, and

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -120.8191

The British pound is trading lower for the fifth day in a row and has come close to the lowest possible border of the side channel. Thus, we still expect a rebound from the level of 1.2165 with the resumption of the upward movement to the Murray level of "7/8"-1.2634. At the same time, the downward movement in recent days is very confident, so it is possible to overcome the level of 1.2165, which will allow the pair to continue moving south in the medium term. The position of the British pound again raises serious concerns, as the UK economy is experiencing much more serious problems than the US or European. Entering the CCI indicator in the area below the "-200" mark will be a strong signal for the end of the downward movement.

The macroeconomic background of yesterday was expressed only in one report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. We have already written about it in the article on the euro/dollar. Traders ignored this report or considered it optimistic, although it was complicated to do so. Thus, the US currency continued to appreciate, despite 36.5 million initial applications for unemployment benefits over the past 8 weeks. At the same time, experts began to pay attention to the looming constitutional crisis and the split in the UK itself (previously, we have repeatedly reported on the possible split of the European Union and the exit of Italy or Germany). For example, the UK officially started easing quarantine measures on May 13. This was stated personally by Boris Johnson. However, the governments of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales did not listen to London and extended the quarantines until May 28. Also, the British Prime Minister allowed citizens to travel by car, but the borders inside the UK are closed, which means that only the British will move freely and only within England. This "disobedience" of Ireland, Scotland, and Wales is not disobedience to the will of London since these states were able to make independent decisions in the field of health 20 years ago. However, the very refusal to follow the recommendations of Boris Johnson eloquently expresses the position of defiant states. And it is expressed by the fact that everyone except England, for the most part, did not want to leave the European Union. Scotland is determined to hold a second independence referendum in the last 6 years just to leave the UK and return to the EU. Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland do not support Boris Johnson and his "hard" Brexit initiatives in principle. And everything is going to him at the moment, since the probability of signing an agreement with the European Union is negligible, as is the extension of the "transition period". There is also no deal yet with the US, although a few months ago both Boris Johnson and Donald Trump were chanting about a "Grand trade agreement." It is clear that now is not the most favorable time for trade negotiations. But for Britain, these deals are vital, although Boris Johnson's government pretends they are not.

Also yesterday, it was reported that the Ministry of Finance of the UK believes that the economy will face a severe recession shortly. In principle, this is not news. A similar statement was made a day earlier by the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. The market also received information about a secret document for the British government about the economic consequences of the "coronavirus" epidemic. According to this document, under the mildest scenario of a pandemic, the crisis creates a budget deficit of 340 billion pounds. In the worst-case scenario (longer-term epidemics, a second wave, a new outbreak), losses will amount to more than 500 billion, which is almost half of the UK budget. Thus, the Kingdom has found a perfect time to leave the European Union. It is clear that in 2016, no one could have imagined that such a serious pandemic would happen in 2020. However, the British government, by all accounts, as well as the American government, failed to prepare for the epidemic. The number of infections and deaths is the highest in Europe. And the economic losses of the United Kingdom will complement the set of financial losses from the "divorce" with the European Union. And after 7 months, the British economy will begin to suffer from the lack of trade agreements with the EU and will start trading with the countries of the Alliance under the rules of the WTO. If Britain continued to stay in the EU, it could count on the help of other states, on the ECB's programs to stimulate the economy, but it pompously left the EU and now can only count on itself. This means that these 340 or 500 billion pounds will have to be taken out of their own pockets by taxpayers sooner or later. Boris Johnson and his Cabinet can borrow these funds, but in any case, ordinary British people will have to pay. Thus, the Conservative Party in December last year won a historic election victory, which allowed Boris Johnson to practically single-handedly run the country in the next election, could suffer the same crushing defeat if taxes increase and British living standards fall.

No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled in the UK for Friday, May 15. Therefore, traders will only pay attention to American statistics. However, we still believe that macroeconomic data have very little impact. Quietly and imperceptibly, the pound/dollar pair approached the minimum from April 7 and worked it out perfectly (1.2165-1.2165). Now it remains to be seen whether the bears will be able to overcome this level because if so, the pair can start forming a new downward trend. The side channel, as we have said more than once, has an extremely blurred lower border, but its minimum value, in any case, is not lower than the level of 1.2165. Therefore, this level is now the key to the prospects of the British currency. If the price rebounds from this level, the pair may again rush to the upper border of the side channel, where it has been since March 30.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair remains stable and currently stands at 117 points. On Friday, May 15, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2078 and 1.2312. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a new round of upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2146

S2 – 1.2085

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2207

R2 – 1.2268

R3 – 1.2329

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, formally, sell orders with the goals of 1.2146 and 1.2085 remain relevant now, but the downward momentum may dry up around the mark of 1.2165, so we recommend that you be careful with opening sell positions until this level is overcome. It is recommended to buy the pound/dollar not before fixing the price back above the moving average with the first goals of 1.2390 and 1.2451.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. May 15. Donald Trump may end all relations with China. The Chinese economy is beginning to

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -158.2454

On Friday, May 15, the EUR/USD currency pair starts with a continuation of the downward movement within the side channel. However, the pair's movements for several days in a row do not resemble movements between the borders of the channel with a width of 250 points, but "swings" in the range of 120 points. The pair's quotes are once again approaching the lower line of the channel near the Murray level of "0/8"-1.0742, however, there is also a minimum from April 6 – 1.0768, from which the pair has already bounced several times. Also, traders should take into account the possible flat channel of 1.0777-1.0897. Thus, there are several strong support levels located at the bottom, which must be overcome to continue the downward movement.

Yesterday was interesting for traders only because of one macroeconomic report. In the United States, another report on applications for unemployment benefits was published, which showed another increase of several million (3 million). Thus, over the past 8 weeks, a total of 36.5 million Americans have filed initial applications for benefits. Many experts believe that the indicator of secondary applications for benefits more accurately reflects the current unemployment rate. According to this indicator, as of May 1, the total number of repeat applications is 22.833 million (the forecast was 25.1 million). Thus, if we look at the second indicator, it turned out to be even better than the forecasts, but when we are talking about 25-35 million people who lost their jobs in just two months, we can hardly say that the indicator is "optimistic" or "positive". Rather, the expression "not as bad as expected" is appropriate.

Meanwhile, passions between China and the US continue to heat up. It is difficult to say who is to blame in this situation, however, it is from the United States that information continues to arrive daily that Washington may impose sanctions, may start a new trade war, may completely terminate business relations with Beijing. Yes, it was the last phrase that was uttered not later than yesterday, from the American President Donald Trump. "We could do a lot of things. We could have ended the relationship completely. If you did, what would happen? You would save $ 500 billion," Donald Trump said during another interview. Also, the American President again stressed that he is very disappointed in China because of the situation with the "coronavirus". "I made a great trade deal with China. But then (in January) no one understood anything. I am very disappointed in China. We have a lot of information and some of it is unfavorable. Whether the virus came from the lab or bats, it was still spreading from China, and they had to stop it. They had to stop it at the source of distribution," Trump summed up. The US President also commented on the bill, which was presented by Senator Lindsey Graham, which implies the introduction of sanctions and restrictions on China if within 60 days Beijing does not provide a full report on what happened in Wuhan. Trump said: "I will be ready to consider this bill."

Also, the media got information that China is very dissatisfied with the United States and is preparing to respond with "painful countermeasures" if Washington still imposes sanctions. However, by "painful countermeasures", Beijing still understands only sanctions against several members of the US government and several American organizations. There is no talk of imposing proportionate sanctions yet. However, at the same time, we are all used to the fact that official Beijing is extremely taciturn and rarely "responds" to Washington. At the same time, there is no doubt that if the entire list of measures from the "Graham law" is applied, then China will respond with mirror measures. In general, the world is on the threshold of new trade and economic confrontation, which may cause an additional blow to the economy, which has not yet recovered but continues to decline due to the COVID-2019 epidemic.

In general, the situation is heating up and now everything will depend on the American leader. If it believes that China is to blame and imposes sanctions/duties/restrictions against it, the world will see a new confrontation between the two giants. And since the coronavirus crisis is not over yet, a new Beijing-Washington conflict could further slow the global economic recovery. The question is, does this make sense for Donald Trump and the US? From our point of view, it makes sense for Trump, but not for the United States. The American President needs to win the presidential race this November and, as a true businessman, he will do everything possible to get ahead of Joe Biden. Trump needs to make China look guilty, cover up their own mistakes and miscalculations. And then everything will depend on American voters. If they believe that Trump is not to blame for the current crisis, for more than 80,000 deaths from the pandemic, and in principle want this conflicted and odious leader to rule the country, then he will be re-elected. If not, then Trump is still not risking anything. He needs to go all-in, and that's probably what he'll do.

Several macroeconomic publications are planned for today. And we will not start with the EU or the US, but with China. Industrial production in China by the end of April may grow by 1.5% in annual terms, which will mean the beginning of the recovery of the Chinese economy. Thus, now the gap between the United States and China will begin to widen and not in favor of Washington. In China, the epidemic was localized very quickly and with relatively small losses. Now the Chinese economy is starting to recover. In Europe and the US, this is not even a dream yet. In Germany, GDP for the first quarter will be published today, which will decline by 2.2% compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year according to experts' forecasts. However, this is only a preliminary value. The EU will also release GDP for the first quarter in an inconclusive estimate, which may be -3.8% q/q and -3.3% y/y. From overseas, data will be received on retail sales for April (forecast -10% m/m), as well as on industrial production for April (-11.5% m/m). The Michigan Institute's consumer confidence index will continue to decline in May and reach 68. Thus, both European and American statistics are likely to disappoint traders equally, so neither the dollar nor the euro currency will have a fundamental advantage.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of May 15 is 70 points. Thus, the value of the indicator remains stable and is characterized as "average". Today, we expect quotes to move between the levels of 1.0711 and 1.0851. The upward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator may signal a new round of upward movement within the 1.0750-1.1000 channel but within the 1.0777-1.0897 channel.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0742

S2 – 1.0681

S3 – 1.0620

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0803

R2 – 1.0864

R3 – 1.0925

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to be located below the moving average, so short positions are formally relevant at the moment. However, we are increasingly inclined to believe that the pair is flat. Thus, it is best to start trading down if the lower limits of both side channels (1.0777 and 1.0750) are overcome. The goals, in this case, are the levels of 1.0711 and 1.0681. It is also recommended to consider buying the euro/dollar pair after the quotes exit from the side channel, that is, above 1.0897 with the goal of the Murray level of "4/8"-1.0986.

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Hot forecast and intraday trading signals for the GBP/USD pair for May 15. COT report. Bears crossed the significant zone

GBP/USD 1H

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The downward movement continued on the hourly chart for the pound/dollar pair on May 14. The day before yesterday, the price reached the support area of 1.2198 - 1.2216, which formed on April 3-7 and, thus, there was a question of overcoming this area. We managed to overcome it, but the bears did not succeed in continuing their downward movement below the support level of 1.2164. It is also worth recalling that 1.2165 is the April 7 low, so there is a chance of a rebound from this level with the start of the upward movement. Despite the certain probability of a reversal around the specified level, before overcoming the downward trend, we do not recommend considering the option with a change in trend as the main one. The downward trend is also supported by the downward channel.

GBP/USD 15M.

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We have two linear regression channels on the 15-minute timeframe, which are also directed downwards and signal a downward trend. The CCI indicator entering the "-200" area was a signal to turn up. However, there was no rebound from the 1.2198-1.2216 area on the hourly timeframe, and the price low at which the CCI signal was formed was overcome with forming a divergence. Thus, the divergence indicated that the signal is false, and the downward movement is still ongoing.

COT report.

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The latest COT report for May 5 shows that the total number of buy and sell transactions among large traders decreased by 1200 per week. Thus, the general mood has not changed and remains "moderately upward" despite the fact that the pound was cheaper in the last few days. However, the pound is getting cheaper in the short term, and COT reports published once a week are more relevant to the long term.

The calendar of macroeconomic events in the UK on May 15 is empty. Thus, traders will only have to observe US statistics, which, admittedly, disappoints as well as in other countries, but does not force market participants to refuse new purchases of the US dollar. Thus, today's reports on industrial production and retail sales can be ignored. So far, the dollar feels absolutely carefree, especially against the pound sterling, since the British economy is experiencing much more serious problems than the US or the eurozone. And this is not just because of the coronavirus pandemic and the crisis it caused. We have two main options for the development of the event on May 15:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair is still in the hands of the bears, as the price continues to be located inside three descending channels at once and with the support of the downward trend line. Thus, we recommend buying the British pound no earlier than overcoming the trend line on the hourly chart with the first goal of the Kijun-sen line - 1.2314. If the bulls manage to overcome this line (and at the same time exit the descending channel), it is recommended to leave the longs open for the Senkou Span B line - 1.2453. Take Profit will be around 60 points in the first case and 200 points in the second.

2) Sellers will be able to continue moving down if they manage to overcome 1.2165. Then we recommend opening new sales or maintaining existing ones while aiming for 1.2062. In this case, Take Profit will be about 90 points.

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Hot forecast and intraday trading signals for the EUR/USD pair for May 15. COT report. US dollar may continue to grow, but

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair tried to gain a foothold below the long-term upward trend line on the hourly timeframe yesterday, however, the attempt again failed. After that, the bears slightly loosened their grip and the pair rolled up, however, it was also impossible to go above the downward trend line (less long-term, and besides, it was already overcome by traders). As a result, traders were caught in a very narrow price range. It seems that today one of the two trend lines will be overcome, which will show the trend for the pair in the coming days. Bears still need to overcome the area of 1.0763 - 1.0775 so that the US currency continues to rise in price.

EUR/USD 15M.

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We see mixed trading on May 14th on the 15-minute timeframe. After forming a signal to complete the downward movement of the CCI indicator (entering the area below the "-200" mark), the pair began to grow, but by the end of the day it again returned to the lows of the day, failing to overcome them. Thus, chances for the euro's growth remain, and quite good, given the stubborn inability of the bears to overcome the trend line on the hourly timeframe. Both channels of linear regression are directed downward, which clearly indicates a downward trend in the context of several days.

COT report.

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The latest COT report of May 5 showed a decrease in the number of transactions for purchase among large traders by 3,778 and a decrease in the number of transactions for sale by 5.069. Thus, the downward mood slightly weakened for the euro. But, since the total number of sales contracts exceeds the number of purchase contracts, the overall trend still remains downward.

As we have repeatedly said in fundamental reviews, the entire macroeconomic background is now ignored by market participants. At least yesterday, the US dollar was not prevented from resuming growth by the failed report on applications for unemployment benefits. Today, we are waiting for failed reports on the GDP of the eurozone and Germany in the first quarter and no less failed reports on US retail sales and industrial production in April. Given the fact that macroeconomic data will be on both sides, we believe that they will not have a big impact on the pair's movement during the day. However, the overall technical picture, suggesting another rebound from the area of 1.0763 - 1.0775 and the trend line, can help the euro.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for May 15:

1) A further drop in the quotes of the pair will be possible only after overcoming the area of 1.0763 - 1.0775. In this case, the immediate goal will be the support level of 1.0745, however it is located very close. In any case, you can open shorts when overcoming a trend line. But the goal would be better if you consider the support level of 1.0651. The potential to take profit is about 100 points.

2) The second option - bullish - suggests another rebound from the long-term upward trend line. We recommend buying the pair only if the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line (1.0835). In this case, you should trade for an increase with a goal of 1.0893 (Senkou Span B line). The potential to take profit in executing this scenario will be around 55 points. Bulls are hardly capable of anything more now.

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EUR/USD. "Attempt Number. ...". Bears trying to gain a foothold in the seventh figure

So, the next blitzkrieg of the bulls of the EUR/USD pair failed: after several attempts, the buyers could not gain a foothold above the 1.0880 mark and, all the more, enter the ninth figure. Surrendering under the onslaught of various fundamental factors, the bulls lost control of the situation, after which the bears quickly seized the initiative. Their task is to gain a foothold in the area of the seventh figure, which in the current conditions is also very problematic. In other words, the pair is still within the wide-range flat - only now at the lower boundary of the price range 1.0750-1.0900. For the second week, traders have been trading in the 150-point range, testing the upper or lower border of the specified range. But the contradictory information flow does not allow either bulls or bears to escape from it in order to develop, respectively, the upward or downward trend.

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Let me remind you that at the beginning of this week the pair showed growth due to the general weakening of the dollar, which, in turn, responded to negative macroeconomic reports. April Nonfarms confirmed the catastrophic situation in the labor market, while inflation indicators (CPI and producer price index) reminded traders of a significant decline in US consumer activity. Key economic indicators have gone deep into the negative area, scaring investors with their dynamics. Against the backdrop of such statistics on the market, they started talking about the fact that the Federal Reserve may decide to introduce negative rates. The fact of a wide discussion of this scenario put significant pressure on the greenback. Even the Fed members who commented on these rumors indirectly weighed on the dollar - they say, if this topic was discussed at such a level, then the likelihood of this scenario still exists, because "there is no smoke without fire".

Nevertheless, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reassured traders yesterday, thereby supporting the dollar bulls. He categorically rejected the idea of introducing negative rates, saying that the Fed has other methods of influencing the economy in its arsenal. In addition, he urged congressmen not to put off the bill on an additional assistance package, the total amount of which exceeds the trillion mark.

Although Powell actually announced further steps to ease monetary policy (excluding a rate cut below zero), traders received his speech positively, after which the dollar recovered throughout the market. The Fed chief offset fears about a negative rate, and secondly, publicly supported the idea of additional assistance from Congress. The fact is that we are talking about an initiative of the Democrats, which was perceived "with hostility" by the Republicans. And since the same party members of Trump (who is preparing to be re-elected in November for a second term) control the Senate, the chances of passing this bill, at least in its current form, are quite small. Therefore, traders reacted positively to Powell's "agitation" – although, in my opinion, he could not and will not change the political situation around this legislative initiative.

Today, dollar bulls have strengthened their positions, but for a different reason. Anti-risk sentiment has increased in the market amid reports of a second wave of coronavirus. These assumptions are (so far) hypothetical, but the market has taken them seriously. The starting point here is a warning from the European center for disease prevention and control. According to the experts of this department, EU member states should prepare for the second wave of infections, using all possible means to improve their surveillance systems for the epidemiological situation. In this case, a relapse may occur even if the first wave was "correctly taken under control". A message appeared on the background of repeated disease outbreaks in South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and even China. It is worth noting that key European countries have just started to come out of quarantine, reviving economic processes, so such news provoked if not panic, then serious concern among traders.

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Thus, the bears received a reason to break the price range of 1.0750-1.0900 in order, firstly, to settle in the seventh figure, and secondly, to identify new price horizons (the next level of support is mark 1, 0636 is the low of this year as well as the previous three years). But so far, sellers have not even approached the lower limit of this range. Therefore, from current values, you can open short positions to around 1.0750. There is a more risky option for the medium term - a long position to the level of 1.0850 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) with a mandatory stop loss of 1.0750.

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