Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 17, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias as markets await the FOMC policy decision. NZD sentiment is dented by a 1.3% drop in Fonterra's GDT Price Index and 0.1% drop in the average price for whole milk powder to $2,327/mt at latest Global Dairy Trade auction. NZD/USD is also weighed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand dovish monetary policy, kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross, and the weak euro. But kiwi sentiment is soothed by the larger-than-expected New Zealand Q1, current account surplus of NZ $662 million (versus forecast for NZ$190 million).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, although latter is at oversold levels; declining five- and 15-day moving averages.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.69. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6845. The pivot point stands at 0.7. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7030 and the second target at 0.7080.

Resistance levels: 0.7030 0.7080 0.7130

Support levels: 0.69 0.6845 0.68

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for June 17, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias as markets await the OMC policy decision. GBP/JPY is undermined by the fears that Greece might default on its debts and exit the eurozone. GBP/JPY is also weighed by the Japan exporter sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by demand from Japanese importers.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 196.10 and the second target at 197. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 192.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 192. The pivot point is at 193.20.

Resistance levels: 196.10 197.10 198

Support levels: 192.60 192 191.40

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EUR/NZD : analysis for June 27, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD is moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6271 in an ultra-high volume. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak bullish bar in a volume just above the average. Our trading range between the levels of 1.6150 and 1.5590 was broken and we may expect the price to move higher. We can observe re-accumulation in the background so watch for potential buying opportunities on dips. I had placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1.6175, Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.6145 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.6115. The short-term trend is bullish.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6180

R2: 1.6220

R3: 1.6290

Support levels:

S1: 1.6040

S2: 1.6000

S3: 1.5930

Trading recommendations: We can observe the bullish market. Selling looks risky. Re-accumulation is in the background so watch for buying opportunities on the dips.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 17, 2015

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Overview:

  • Accordingto the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still trapping between 1.1195 and 1.1327. The levels of 1.1195 and 1.1327 represent support and resistance respectively. From here, the level of 1.1327 is the strong resistance, but the double top has already set at the point of 1.1386. Moreover, the minor resistance has set at the level of 1.1300. On the other hand, the support has been placed at 1.1195. Additionally, it should be noted that the level of 1.1195 is coinciding with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Therefore, the market was calling for an uptrend for that the trend broke the resistance. The resistance became the strong support yesterday. So, buy above the level of 1.1203 in the long term with the first target at 1.1327. If the trend is able to break the weekly resistance at the level of 1.1327, it might resume towards 1.1386 in order to test the double top in the H1 chart this week.
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 17, 2015

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Overview:

  • The USD/CAD pair is likely to find support at the levels of 1.2244 and 1.2386 on June 17, 2015. Also it should be noted that the level of 1.2286 represents the key level for the USD/CAD pair today. Moreover, the market is still calling for an uptrend. Resistance became strong support at the level of 1.2290. Consequently, the ascending movement will probably be higher than 1.2290 with targets at 1.2339 and 1.2360 in the long term. The level of 1.2360 is the highest price for that the pair is going to form the first double top at 1.2360.
  • On the contrary, the resistance is seen at the level of 1.2360/1.2380. In a different situation, it will be very profitable to sell below this level for retestingit in the short period. Therefore, sell deals are recommended below 1.2380 with a targets 1.2280 in coming hours.
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AUD/USD an intraday look

On the M15 chart, AUD/USD started moving towards lower highs and lower lows signaling for an active downtrend. On June 16, the pair broke below the support at 0.7720 that was followed by the descending channel breakout to the downside.

The Fibonacci applied to the channel breakout point shows that 38.2% level – S1 (0.7681) was also broken, that can be interpreted as a high probability that the rate will continue moving lower.

The nearest resistance is expected at the channel breakout point that is 50% level – R1 (0.7698). Consider selling AUD/USD on a pullback, near 0.77 (R1), targeting 0% area that is near 0.7628 (S3). Only a break above the key resistance R2 (0.7715) would invalidate this scenario.

Support: 0.7681, 0.7661, 0.7628

Resistance: 0.7698, 0.7715

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Gold : analysis for June 17, 2015

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Overview:

Gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,177.87. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak bearishh bar in a volume below the average. A fail absorption volume of our buying climax bar in the background is a sign that buying gold looks risky. Anyway, I am neutral about this pair since we got major support around the levels of $1,168.00 and $1,162.00. Since we got strong buying climax in the background and fail absorption volume, bearish side is more possible. I am waiting for larger activity and stronger price actions.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,185.80

R2: 1,188.65

R3: 1,193.25

Support levels:

S1: 1,176.65

S2: 1,173.80

S3: 1,169.00

Trading recommendations: Buying climax around the level of $1,184.00 is in the background. Buying gold at this stage looks risky.

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USDX technical analysis for June 17, 2015

The US Dollar Index remains in a short-term bearish trend but also holds above the critical support at 94.50 and 93.10. With the FOMC meeting taking place tonight, the US dollar is expected to see some price volatility and traders should be patient until Yellen's speech.

Red line - trend line resistance

The US Dollar Index is trading below the trend-line resistance and below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. The short-term trend is bearish. Resistance is seen at 95.04 by the trendline and the next resistance is expected by the cloud at 95.25. Support is found at 94.50 and then at 93.10.

The weekly chart remains weak as there are increased chances of a push lower towards 90 if support at 93.10 gets broken. However, bulls have one last chance to reverse the current bearish trend. A breakout above 96.65 is likely to increase chances for resumption of the uptrend to new highs.

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Gold technical analysis for June 17, 2015

Gold continues to trade sideways trapped inside a trading range. Gold has no clear trend and up and down swings manage to confuse short-term traders. Short-term traders should better avoid trading Gold until the price breaks out of a trading rang of $1,230-$1,160.

Red line - trend line support

Blue area - resistance area

Yesterday, gold price was rejected at $1,185 again and was pushed lower towards the red trend-line support and below the Ichimoku cloud. The short-term trend remains neutral. A short-term sell signal is expected in case the price breaks below the red trendline. Support is seen at $1,175. Resistance is seen at $1,185-90.

Blue line - weekly support

Weekly chart remains bearish as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud resistance and below the kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators. My longer-term view remains bearish as I believe it is more probable to break $1,130 than above $1,300.

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Technical analysis of Gold for June 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around the level of $1,180.00 after hitting highs at $1,190.00 yesterday as expected. The metal had dropped towards $1,177.00 earlier during the day but was expected to resume its rally towards $1,205.00 and $1,211.00. Please note that bulls are expected to remain in control until prices stay above $1,171.00 at least. It is recommended to remain long with risk at $1,150.00 now. Immediate support is seen at $1,171.00 (interim) followed by $1,161.00, $1,143.00, and lower. Resistance is seen at $1,205.00 followed by $1,215.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $1,150.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for June 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading around $16.00 as expected after having taken out interim resistance around $16.30. The metal seems to have bottomed around $15.90 and is about to resume its rally higher towards $17.20 and higher respectively. Bulls should be poised to remain in control until prices stay above $15.80 broadly. It is hence recommended to hold long positions and also look to add further, with risk around the level of $15.30 now. Immediate support is seen at the level of $15.80, followed by $15.60, $15.30, and lower. Rresistance is seen at $17.20/30 followed by $17.70/80 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at $15.30, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 17, 2015

General overview for 17/06/2015 08:50 CET

The market has confirmed that the triangle formation is still in progress and the last sub-wave e green is needed to complete the pattern. For the whole week the market has been trading around the weekly pivot at the level of 1.2326 under rather choppy trade conditions ( typical for a triangle pattern). So, it looks like the market is waiting for today's FOMC meeting to continue the impulsive progression downwards. Please notice that only a sustained violation of the level of 1.2434 would invalidate the view.

Support/Resistance:

1.2434 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation Line

1.2344 - Intraday Resistance

1.2326 - Weekly Pivot

1.2267 - Intraday Support

1.2200 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the level of 1.2344 with SL above the level of 1.2365 and TP at the level of 1.2267 with possible extension downwards to the level of 1.2200.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 17, 2015

General overview for 17/06/2015 08:30 CET

As anticipated yesterday the reversal zone provided the resistance and the price reversed to the downside to make wave a purple. Currently, the supply breakthrough zone between the levels of 137.98 and 138.30 is still the most important support zone. When this support is violated, the next one is technical support at the level of 136.95. On the other hand, only a sustained breakout above the level of 140.01 would invalidate this view.

Support/Resistance:

141.05 - Swing High

139.89 - 140.00 - Reversal Zone

139.70 - WR1

138.82 - Weekly Pivot

137.98 - 138.30 - Supply Breakthrough Zone

138.16 - Intraday Support

136.95 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening another sell orders from current price levels with SL above the level of 140.01 and TP at the level of 138.00 with possible extension downwards to the level of 136.95.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around 139.05 at the moment after pulling back sharply from the level of 140.00 yesterday. Please note that the pair has bounced off the fibonacci 0.382 support levels of a rally between 133.00 and 141.00 respectively. A break below 138.00 could bring it lower towards 137.00 and to the trendline support as seen here. On the other hand, bulls would try to remain in control until prices stay above 138.00 keeping the trend intact. It is therefore recommended to initiate 50% long positions now with risk below 138.00. Immediate support is seen at 138.00 followed by 135.00, 133.00, and lower. Resistance is seen at 141.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate 50% long positions, stop is at 137.50, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for June 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair was pushed higher towards the resistance at 1.4600/50. Since the pair had bounced off the fibonacci 0.618 support around 1.4150 earlier, the uptrend remains intact and the probability of hitting higher highs remains. Bulls are expected to remain in control until prices stay above the level of 1.4150 as seen here. It is recommended to exit short positions and remain flat for now. Rather buying on dips ahead of 1.4150 levels should be favored. Immediate support is seen at 1.4450/00 followed by 1.4250, 1.4150, and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4650 followed by 1.4700 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Exit short positions, remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 17, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has consolidated so far this week, all in the context of an uptrend. On this kind of market, a breakout to the upside or to the downside is very much likely, with a breakout to the upside having a higher possibility of happening.

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USD/CHF: This pair continues to be volatile as the struggle between bulls and bears continue. As it was mentioned last week, the support level at 0.9250 should be breached to the downside. So, an existing bearish bias would be made stronger. Otherwise, there would be a risk of a significant upward movement.

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GBP/USD: This pair has moved upwards by at least 110 pips this week. Since the price rose from the accumulation territory at 1.5200, it has moved upward by over 450 pips. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern is very strong in the chart, and thus, the bullish outlook would be rational as long as the price is able to stay above the accumulation territory at 1.5500.

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USD/JPY: In spite of the consolidation that started last week, the USD/JPY still generate sell signals. The price is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level of 30. When a breakout does occur in this market, it is likely to be forwarded to the downside.

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EUR/JPY: the price has been moving sideways since last week until now. A breakout is expected very soon, either above the supply zone around 140.00 (which would signify a northward journey) or below the demand zone at 138.00 (which would signify a southward journey). To sum it up, whatever happens to the EUR would determine what would occur here.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 17, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic on German 10-y Bond Auction, Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y, and Italian Trade Balance is due. The US will publish data on the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, and Crude Oil Inventories. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1295.

Strong Resistance:1.1289.

Original Resistance: 1.1278.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1267.

Target Inner Area: 1.1241.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1215.

Original Support: 1.1204.

Strong Support: 1.1193.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1187.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 17, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance. The US is expected to publish economic on Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, and Crude Oil Inventories. So, there is a big probability that USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 124.03.

Resistance. 2: 123.77.

Resistance. 1: 123.54.

Support. 1: 123.25.

Support. 2: 123.01.

Support. 3: 122.76.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 17, 2015

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Technical summary:

We did see a break above 1.6159, but did not see the expected acceleration higher towards 1.6446. As support at 1.6024 protects the downside, we feel confident, that a new attempt to accelerate higher will be seen soon.

In the short term, minor support at 1.6112 ideally will be able to protect the downside for a break above 1.6209 adding upside pressure for the expected rally to 1.6446 and above.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5810 and will move our stop higher to 1.6010. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6112 or upon a break above 1.6209 with the same stop at 1.6010.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 17, 2015

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Technical summary:

We did see a break above minor resistance at 139.61, but we did not see the expected acceleration higher in blue wave iii. As long as support at 137.98 protects the downside, we will be looking for more upside pressure, a break above minor resistance at 139.19, and more importantly a break above resistance at 140.00 for a rally to 141.06 on the way towards 144.03.

Only an unexpected breakout below 137.98 will delay the expected upside pressure and call for a move closer to 137.00 before renewed upside pressure can be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 138.10, with stop place at 137.85. If you are not long EUR yet, upon a break above 139.19 with the same stop at 137.85.

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AUD/CHF about to make a move

The AUD/CHF pair has been trading downwards since April 29. At the same time, the pair failed to reach any new highs, thus confirming the downtrend validity.

It is clear that the rate is heading down within the descending channel. The upper trendline of the channel has been rejected on June 15. At the same spot, the pair rejected the 50% (R2) retracement level, of the Fibonacci applied to a high of 0.7479 hit on May 14 and a low of 0.7060 hit on June 9.

The trend is bearish and could be on the way to trade in the next 48 hours considering sell near R1 (0.7230). The downside target is 161.8% Fibs that is applied to a low of 0.7208 hit on the May 7 and a high of 0.7479 reached on May 14. A break above R2 (0.7277) will invalidate these analysis.

Support: 0.7171, 0.7076, 0.7042

Resistance: 0.7230, 0.7277, 0.7325

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 17, 2015

The USDX is still dealing with the support level of 94.66, because the Index wants to do a rebound at current levels in order to ride the overall bullish trend in the medium and long term. Also, the 200 SMA is still slightly bullish, so the view is pointing to the upwards. However, be cautious with a possible breakout of the level of 94.66.

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On the H1 chart, the USDX is showing a sideways structure below the resistance level of 95.15. This could be an indication of strength in the short-term bearish bias, but we should see first a confirmation, which would be the breakout of the support level of 94.63, in order to look for new lows below a zone around 94.33.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.97

Daily chart's support levels: 94.66 / 93.75

H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.15 / 95.71

H1 chart's support levels: 94.63 / 94.33

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support is seen at 94.63, take profit is at 94.33, and stop loss is at 94.93.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 17, 2015

On the daily chart, the price action is calling for more upside above the 200 SMA and the nearest target is located around the level of 1.5755, which is a strong resistance zone. However, don't forget the GBP/USD pair could start to do corrective moves in the short term, because we have been watching a very strong bullish trend development over the last days.

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There is an interesting bullish structure formed on the H1 chart, because the pair has been trading higher above the support level at 1.5610. We expect a breakout of the resistance level at 1.5671 in order to reach the next high around 1.5721. The MACD indicator is entering in the negative territory and the 200 SMA is still bullish.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5755 / 1.5898

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5346

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5671 / 1.5721

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5610 / 1.5548

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5671, take profit is at 1.5721, and stop loss is at 1.5621.

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