EUR/NZD : analysis for May 19, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.5055 in an ultra-high volume. The short-term trend is neutral. According to the daily time frame, demand is in a volume below the average. It looks like major resistance around the level of 1.5310 (Fibonacci retracement 50% and strong cluster) held successfully. According to the H4 time frame, we got selling climatic action (hidden buying). Be careful when selling. If we see confirmation of climatic selling, first strong support will be around the level of 1.4820 (major Fibonacci retracement 38.2%).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5375

R2: 1.5400

R3: 1.5435

Support levels:

S1: 1.5300

S2: 1.5280

S3: 1.5245

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage since we can observe selling climax (bearish volume spike)



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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 19, 2015

General overview for 19/05/2015 11:05 CET

As anticipated yesterday the top for wave B had been established at the level of 136.96 and now the market might have started an impulsive decline to the downside. To confirm this scenario, the price mustn't break above the key resistance level at 135.29 and head lower, to test the intraday support at the level of 133.45. Please notice that violation of this level means the market will be in the bearish zone and lower prices are expected.

Support/Resistance:

136.96 - Swing High

135.86 - Weekly Pivot

135.29 - intraday Resistance

134.87 - WS1

133.45 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell limit orders at the level of 135.29 with very tight SL (20-30 pips) in case the market heads to test this level. The TP orders should be left open then.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 19, 2015

Overview:

  • The USD/CAD pair continues to show signs of strength following the break of the first resistance at 1.2140. Moreover, a strong level of 1.2095 is representing the strong support this week. Therefore, the resistance got broken and turned to support. So, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the levels of 1.2095 and 1.2140 with a target at 1.2204 in order to test the double top. The ratio of 100% Fibonacci retracement levels is coinciding with the level of 1.2204. If the trend is able to break the double top at the point of 1.2204, the pair will call for strong bullish market above the level of 1.2204 with a view to form a new double top at 1.2242. Additionally, if the trend breaks this level and closes below the key level (1.2143), it will be rather convincing downside momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. The market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 1.2143. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell at this level with a target at 1.2098; but it should be noticed that the support has been already placed at 1.2095.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 19, 2015

General overview for 19/05/2015 10:25 CET

After breaking above the intraday supply zone and golden trend line, the market is heading impulsively into another supply zone between the levels of 1.2190 and 1.2204. The impulsive structure hasn't been completed yet as only three waves are about to be done. So, there is wave 4 blue and wave 5 blue to the upside missed. Please notice that the wave 4 blue might get more complex and time-consuming if it gets evolved into triangle or any other correction.

Support/Resistance:

1.2248 - WR2

1.2204 - 1.2190 - Supply Zone

1.2168 - Intrday Support

1.2127 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

All buy orders that were recommended yesterday have hit the TP level, but if there are any buy orders still on trailing stop, then please set the TP at the level of 1.2190 as the wave four correction is coming soon.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for May 19, 2015

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Overview:

  • In the H4 chart, the support of the USD/USD pair was found at the level of 0.7933. Also, it should be noted that the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels is coinciding with the level of 0.7933. Moreover, a minor resistance is likely to be set at 0.8021 today. So, according to the previous proceedings, the AUD/USD pair will move between resistance (0.8021) and support (0.7933) in the short term. We expect a range about 88 pips. In consequence, if the trend fails to close below the level of 0.7933; for that it will be a good opportunity to buy above 0.7933 with the first target at 0.7983, then it will be continued straight towards 0.8021 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels). At the same time, the stop loss should always be taken into account because it should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Thus, the best location to set your stop loss is seen below the level of 0.7910.

Observations:

This week:

  • The resistance will be set at the level of 0.8054.
  • The support has been already placed at the level of 0.7879.
  • We expect a new range about 175 pips this week.
  • According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is going to move between 0.7870 and 0.8060 this week.
  • The key level is seen at 0.7977.
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#USDX technical analysis for May 19, 2015

The Dollar index reversed its short-term bearish trend to bullish and brake above the downward sloping wedge as we had expected. There are increased chances that the recent low in the Dollar index will be an intermediate-term low and that a new upward move is at its beginning with targets above the previous highs.

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Blue lines = downward sloping wedge

The Dollar index brake the downward sloping wedge yesterday and gave a short-term reversal signal. It is important now to see a break above the cloud resistance in the area of 94.60-94.90. Support is found at 93.80 as we could see a back test of the breakout.

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Last week's candle was not a good sign but bulls have stepped in and are fighting to regain control of the trend this week. We bounced from an important support area of the 38% retracement although we have not exactly reached that level. I believe that the Dollar index has many chances for an upward reversal and the start of a new upward move that will bring the index to new highs.

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Technical analysis of Silver for May 19, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver has dropped lower towards $17.40/50 as seen here. The metal could continue moving lower until the levels of $16.94 at least and subsequently towards $16.50/70 before resuming its rally. It is recommended to hold short positions for now with risk around $18.00. The metal should produce a meaningful retracement before resuming its rally. Immediate support is seen at $16.94 followed by $16.70. $16.40/50, and lower, while resistance is seen at $18.40/50 and higher respectively. Bears could remain in control until prices stay below $17.70.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop at $18.05, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Gold technical analysis for May 19, 2015

Gold price is showing some signs of short-term reversal after being rejected at the 50% Fibonacci retracement. There is increased probability to see a pullback towards $1,210-$1,200 today. There is still some upside potential towards $1,240-50 but traders should focus on the downside.

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Orange lines=small time frame bullish channel

Blue lines = medium-term bullish channel

Black rectangle = possible pull back target

Gold price has broken out of the short-term upward sloping channel. Gold price could have made a short-term top and a small pullback should be expected today or even tomorrow. The pullback target is the black rectangle area and Ichimoku cloud support around $1,210-05.

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The weekly chart remains bearish as the price continues to trade below the kijun-sen (yellow line) and below the Ichimoku cloud. Moreover, the resistance of the 50% Fibonacci retracement proves to be a strong resistance again. Support is at $1,200 for this week by the tenkan-sen (red line). A closure below that level will be a bearish signal combined with the rejection at the lower cloud boundaries.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 19, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold had risen to $1,230.00/31.00 yesterday before it pulled back lower and took stops out at $1,230.50. A pullback is expected towards at least $1,208.00 and the levels of $1,193.00/94.00 (which is also fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between $1,168.00 and $1,230.00) would be optimum levels to initiate long positions again. It is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for further confirmation to go short. Immediate support is seen at $1,210.00 followed by $1,190.00, $1,180.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $1,235.00/40 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 19, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around the level of 135.50 now and might be preparing to continue dropping lower until at least 133.00 before it could produce any meaningful retracement. It looks like the pair formed a meaningful top yesterday and all rallies from there should remain well capped below the levels of 136.80/90. It is hence recommended to remain short with risk around 137.30/50. Immediate support is seen at the levels of 133.00/50 followed by 131.00, 129.00, 128.00, and lower while resistance is seen at 136.90/137.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at 137.30/50, a target is open for now.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 19, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around the levels of 1.4500/10, just below the trend-line resistance as seen here. The pair is also drifting sideways in a decreasing resistance constant support form. It tends to break on the south side and a break below 1.4350/60 would accelerate further downfall. It is hence recommended to remain short with risk at 1.4630/50 now. Immediate support is seen at 1.4350 levels followed by 1.4150, 1.4000, and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4550 followed by 1.4600, 1.4700, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop at 1.4630/50, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 19, 2015

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Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by stronger dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.12 versus 93.29 early Monday), helped by San Francisco Fed research paper that says the initial annualized growth by 0.2% reported for Q1 has actually understates the economy's true strength. It contends "residual seasonal" factors that are in play with the headline weakness, masking what the regional Fed branch estimates the growth of 1.8%. USD/JPY is also supported by higher US Treasury yields (10-year rose 9.2 bps to 2.233% Monday) and reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen amid positive risk sentiment (S&P 500 hit record high 2.131.78 before closing up 0.3% at 2,129.2 overnight), demand from Japan importers, and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise drop in the US NAHB housing market index to 54 in May from 56 in April (versus forecast for rise to 58). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan export sales.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD and stochastics are turning bullish, but five- and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.15 and the second target at 120.35. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.05. The pivot point is at 119.50.

Resistance levels:
120.15
120.35
120.75

Support levels:
119.30
119.05
118.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 19, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by stronger dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.12 versus 93.29 early Monday), helped by San Francisco Fed research paper that says the initial annualized growth by 0.2% reported for Q1 has actually understates the economy's true strength. It contends "residual seasonal" factors that are in play with the headline weakness, masking what the regional Fed branch estimates the growth of 1.8%, negative Swiss interest rates, and the threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. The daily chart is mixed as five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but the MACD and stochastics are turning bullish.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9295 and the second target at 0.9355. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9115 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9060. The pivot point is at 0.9155.

Resistance levels:
0.9295
0.9355
0.94
Support levels:
0.9115
0.9060
0.8970

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 19, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by stronger dollar sentiment, new NZ capital gains tax on residential property investments, which many speculators would pave the way for interest rate cuts in coming months, larger-than-expected decline by 1.1% on-quarter in New Zealand Q1 producer input prices (versus forecast -0.7%), weak dairy prices, and kiwi sales on the buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by positive investor risk sentiment and NZD-USD interest differential.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as the MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics is turning bearish.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7405. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7335. The pivot point stands at 0.7500. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7560 and the second target at 0.76.

Resistance levels:
0.7560
0.76
0.7650

Support levels:
0.7405
0.7355
0.73

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 19, 2015

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Fundamental outlook:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the soft EUR/USD undertone and Japan export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by demand from Japan importers, positive investor risk sentiment, and sterling demand amid the soft EUR/GBP cross.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing but stochastics is turned bearish at overbought levels, bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 187.3. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 186.65. The pivot point stands at 188.60. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 189.20 and the second target at 189.75.

Resistance levels:
189.20
189.75
190.35

Support levels:
187.3
186.65
186

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 19 - 2015

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Technical summary:

As we stated yesterday, the most likely pattern for wave (ii) was an expanded flat correction and wave b came closer to the termination. Wave b has terminated at the 138.2% target of wave a and now we should see wave c move to 1.4913 for a decline towards 1.4725.

However, an expanded flat correction in wave (ii) already tells us what to expect for wave (iii) when it starts to unfold. After an expanded flat wave two we should always expect an extension in wave three and that means a rally of minimum 161.8% of wave (i) in wave (iii).

Trading recommendation:

We will place a EUR sell-order at 1.5265 with a stop at 1.5355.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 19, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has started coming down gradually; all in the context of the uptrend. Should the price fail to breach the support line at 1.1200 to the downside (which would require large selling pressure), this would be taken as an opportunity to buy long when things are on sale and in the context of the uptrend.

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USD/CHF: Since the EUR/USD pair dipped a little on Monday, the USD/CHF pair rose a little. This could is seen as an opportunity to follow the dominant bias direction: an assumption that is valid if the resistance level at 0.9350 would not be breached to the upside.

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GBP/USD: The cable has started easing – the trend that began last Friday. The market has come down gradually by 140 pips since last Friday, but the overall bias remains bullish. Only a movement below the accumulation territory at 1.5500 could render the bullish bias useless. A serious bearish pressure is needed for this.

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USD/JPY: We observe a buy signal on the market now. However, the signal should be traded in the short-term, not in the long-term, for the recent price action of this pair has been sideways at best. There cannot be a solid trending market until the supply level at 120.50 is overcome.

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EUR/JPY: In spite of the slight bearish retracement on Monday, there is still a valid Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this trading instrument. We do not need to forget that movements of this currency trading instrument would be largely determined by what happens to EUR this week. Weakness in EUR would cause the instrument to plummetŠ± and vice versa.

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Technical analysis of USDX & USD/JPY for May 19, 2015

The USDX paused the 4-day falling streak and gave a strong close after more than a month. After a 2-day consolidation, the price edged higher. The index is likely to make a double bottom at 93.13. The level of 93.13 is the 161.8FE entire fall from the peak. Resistance is seen at 94.60 and 95.35 100Dema and 100Dsma respectively. Technically, bearish views remain in play until the price closes below 100dema & sma. 20Dsma is found at 95.15. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the greenback is trading higher against most majors and USD related pairs. Today, we expect 94.50 initially, later 94.70 and 94.90. Intraday support is found at 94.15 and 93.65. Earlier, we had recommended selling at 96.50 with targets at 93.00 and 91.50 in the near term. Yesterday, we cancelled the 91.50 view. In case the price closes below 93.13, the next support is seen at 91.50 and 90.50 200Dsma and 200Dema respectively.

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USD/JPY

The pair extended the winning streak in for the 3rd consecutive day as well. It gave a strong close after 10 sessions. The pair is slowly approaching the 10-day descending trend line and a month descending trend line. In case the price closes above 120.50, bulls will aim at 122.0. Today, the pair managed to hold the 50Dsma. The strong momentum above 120.10 towards 120.25, 120.50, 120.85, and 121.00 is expected within a day and the resistance is seen at 120.30 and 120.85. We recommended buyingbetween 119.00 and 118.60 sl 118.50 on May 14. Support is found at 119.80, 119.50 and 119.30. Until the pair closes above 119.20, bulls aim at 120.90 in a day or two. Today, data on the US housing are expected to be printed negative. Use a dip to buy will preferable.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 19, 2015

Last Friday, we covered complete technical picture of this pair. The pair managed to move 200 pips from its lows. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, USD is trading higher against CAD.The USD related pairs has been correcting for more than 2 months. Until the Greece saga comes to the end, we don't expect the Federal Reserve to provide a signal for the rate hike. It does not favor the greenback. On the down side, support is found at 1.1875 200Dema and 1.1763 200Dsma. In the daily chart, the pair has been making the minor bottom around 1.1940, whereas strong support is at 1.1875. Intraday resistance is seen between 1.2171 and 1.2200. Strong resistance is seen at 1.2175. The near-term reversal takes place in case of a closure above 1.2175 100Dema. We expect the bottom to be set between 1.1900 and 1.1875. In case the price takes over 1.1875, it can extend a sharp correction towards 1.1800/1.1760 where the sharp reversal is expected. In the daily chart, we can observe a positive divergence developing. The bottoming process is very painful after a sharp fall. In the four-hour chart, the triple was formed at 1.2171. We recommend fresh buying only above 1.2175. Until the pair closes below 1.2175, bears will try to retest lower levels. Support is found at 1.2100, 1.2050, and 1.2030. For an intraday view, selling pressure will emerge below 1.2140 towards 1.2120, 1.2100, 1.2085, and 1.2050. Today, the US housing will be in negative side. Use a dip to buy will be preferable.


Intraday- buy above 1.2175 with targets at 1.2200, 1.2220 and 1.2240

Sell below 1.2140

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 19 - 2015

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Technical summary:

Ideally, the top of blue wave i at 135.29 will protect the downside for one last rally higher to an ideal target at 137.54. However, a clear wave five rally can be counted from a low of 126.02. That means the top could be already in place at 136.96 and thereby wave (i) and a correction in wave (ii) are unfolding. A break below 135.29 is likely to becom the first indication and call for a correction lower towards at least 133.08.

The top of the first impulsive rally is nearby and a correction of the entire rally since a low of 126.02 is to be seen in wave (ii). We have to remember that the second wave tends to be deep and is allowed to correct up to 100% of the first wave.

Trading recommendation:

We will sell EUR at 137.50 or if support at 135.29 is broken a EUR sell-order will be placed at 136.00.

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AUDCHF reached upside target

AUDCHF hit a two-month low of 0.7209 and rushed up almost immediately on May 7. After the rise, the pair tested a high of 0.7478 and yet again a sharp move followed, but downwards at this time.

The price broke above the ascending channel and AUDCHF rapidly reached the upside target. The target is expressed in 100% Fibonacci level plotted using a breakout point of the channel. Such a clean bounce confirms that the high of 0.7478 is a valid technical resistance according to this analysis. At the same time, the pair rejected the 50% Fibonacci retracement level applied to a high of 14.05 and low of 18.05.

There is the significant support around 0.7340. However, it is likely to be tested once gain and if it gets broken, the price will move further down towards a low of 07.05 forming a double bottom around the area of 0.72. Look for a sell trade near R1 with a tight stop loss and targeting either S1 (0.7340) or S2 (0.7209). Only a break above R1 could send the price higher to form a double top near R2.

Support: 0.7340, 0.7209

Resistance: 0.7409, 0.7470

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 19, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data on Trade Balance, Final Core CPI y/y, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Final CPI y/y, and German ZEW Economic Sentiment are due for release.The US will reveal economic data on Housing Starts and Building Permits. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.1380.

Strong Resistance:1.1373.

Original Resistance: 1.1362.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1351.

Target Inner Area: 1.1324.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1297.

Original Support: 1.1286.

Strong Support: 1.1275.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1268.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 19, 2015

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In Asia, Japan is not expected to release any economic data today but the US will publish reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.48.

Resistance. 2: 120.25.

Resistance. 1: 120.01.

Support. 1: 119.73.

Support. 2: 119.50.

Support. 3: 119.26.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 19, 2015

Major economic data starts from today onwards. Today, traders eye CPI y/y. The April CPI reading was slightly negative. The core CPI stayed at 1%. A fall in the inflation rate leads to a fall in oil prices. In April 2014 the inflation rate paused at 1.8%. Today and tomorrow are likely to be big days for the pound and greenback. We expect wild moves favoring bears. I expect the near term to be capped at 1.5840. In case intraday moves spike up ahead of the FOMC meeting, bulls can extend 1.5960/1.6000. But chances are remote. Last week, we noted the cable waiting for a minor correction. As of now, the cable lost 177 pips from recent highs. The nearest support is found at 1.5630 and 1.5600 200Dsma. At yesterday's session, the cable made a low at 1.5638. For an intraday session, we recommend selling below 1.5630 with targeta at 1.5600, 1.5590, and 1.5550. In case the price closes below 1.5545, bears aim at 1.5440 and 1.5410. Intraday resistance is seenat 1.5680 and 1.5725. Bullish momentum is expected above 1.5725 towards 1.5800/1.5810.

Trade: Selling below 1.5630

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NZDCAD range before action

After a consistent downtrend, NZD/CAD set a low near 0.88. The pair found itself in a correctional phase with a sharp rise from 0.8792 to 0.9031. The most recent price action is nothing else than a range trading that has been going on for 3 days now, keeping in mind that this is the 1H chart.

While the correction took place, NZD/CAD broke above the descending channel and closed higher 23.4% (R2 – 0.9006) Fibonacci resistance level based on the channel breakout point. After the pair had come back to the S1 (point of breakout), it rejected it on three occasions. Additionally, the MACD bullish divergence supports the idea of further correction upwards.

The growth is quite probable unless the pair breaks below already established support S1 (0.8932). Therefore, while the price is above S1, consider buying targeting 0% Fibonacci area, which is R3 (0.9071).

Support: 0.8932, 0.8899, 0.8859, 0.8792

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Resistance: 0.8965, 0.9006, 0.9071

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 19, 2015

The USDX had a bullish momentum during yesterday's session, because the index is currently trading above the support level of 93.95 looking to reach the psycological zone of 95.00 in the medium term.. We should take this move as corrective, because the USDX has been trading lower for several weeks.

USDXDaily.png


The short-term outlook is advising a possible bullish consolidation above the 200 SMA om the H1 chart. We can observe a higher high pattern above the support level of 93.85 now. If the USDX breaks the resistance level of 94.70, it would be expected to rise until 95.18, a high which hasn't been visited for two weeks. The MACD indicator is in the overbought territory.

USDXH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.00 / 95.74

Dailychart's support levels: 93.95 / 92.64

H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.70 / 95.18

H1 chart's support levels: 93.85 / 93.07



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.85, take profit is at 93.07, and stop loss is at 94.63.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 19, 2015

During Monday's session, GBP/USD did a significant pullback around the resistance level at 1.5745 and now it's looking to reach the support zone of 1.5543, where the 200 SMA is located in the daily chart. Also, we have been expecting this move, because GBP/USD had a very directional bullish trend throughout April's lows. The MACD indicator is entering into overbought territory.

GBPUSDDaily.png


On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trying to reach the 200 SMA as the pair fell within the last session and we expect more lower trading during today. Anyway, if the GBP/USD pair does a breakout at the support level of 1.5597, it would be expected to fall until 1.5513, which is below the moving average mentioned above.

GBPUSDH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5745 / 1.5907

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5346

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5706 / 1.5794

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5597 / 1.5513



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5706, take profit is at 1.5794, and stop loss is at 1.5615.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 19, 2015

Major economic data is due for release today. German Zew economic sentiment, Zew economic sentiment and final CPI y/y are due today. The German Zew economic sentiment has been disappointing thought 3 months. Zew economic sentiment has been improving for 6 consecutive months. Greek issue remains the main focus of attention in the near term.

At yesterday's session, the USD changed the direction and was trading higher against most major pears. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the greenback managed to get away from lows.

Technical view:The pair started the new week with losses after five consecutive profitable weeks. We have already said the pair is likely to make the near-term top between 1.1480 and 1.1535. The pair rejected at 1.1467 and fell by 160 pips. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to hold the 100Dema 1.1300. We recommended selling below 1.1390 with a target at 1.1300. The pair made a low exactly at our targets. At today's Asian session, the pair was trading above the support level. Weekly support is found at 1.1130 20Wsma. In case the price closes below 1.1300, bears will aim at 20Wsma and the level of 1.1050 later. The 100Dsma is found at 1.1178. We expect fresh selling below 1.1300 towards 1.1200 and 1.1178 in the least case 1.1130 likely. Today we expect negative data on the euro. Intraday support is found at 1.1300, 1.1210, and 1.1190. Resistance is seen at 1.1326, 1.1360, and 1.1390. Use every rise to sell with sl 1.1390 and safe sell will trigger below 1.1300 with targets at 1.1210 and 1.1190.

EURUSDH4.png

To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 18, 2015

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Overview:

On March 2, a bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Persistence below the zone of 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700.

Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established.

Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established.

As anticipated, the daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where extensive bearish pressure was previously applied.

This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250, and 1.5100 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated on May 5.

Note that Intraday Support 1 (price level of 1.5400) is the most prominent support level to be watched for buy entries when the further bearish pullback occurs.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.5750-1.5800 remains a critical resistance zone to be watched for possible sell entries if enough bearish pressure is maintained.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 18, 2015

cadweekly.pngcaddailllyy.png

Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout and the depicted weekly uptrend).

That is why we expected these price levels to provide significant bullish SUPPORT. However, bearish breakout remains a probability (successive lower highs were expressed around price levels of 1.2290 and 1.2150).

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2330-1.2350 remains significant intraday resistance for further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry while retesting.

Trading recommendations:

Risky traders could have taken a counter-trend buy entry anywhere around 1.1950. S/L should be set as daily closure below 1.1930. T/P is projected at 1.2100, 1.2270, and 1.2320.

Breakdown of the recent low at 1.1940 invalidates this bullish scenario.

However, conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards 1.2300-1.2340 for a low-risk sell entry.

T/P levels should be placed at 1.2220, 1.2100, and 1.1950 while S/L should be placed above 1.2250.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 18, 2015

gbppusdweekly.png

Significant supply levels located around 1.5300 (weekly 38.2% Fibonacci level) and 1.5500 (weekly 50% Fibonacci level) have been providing a significant supply over the GBP/USD pair for few months.

Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

As mentioned before, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly supply zone of 1.5500-1.5550 (roughly corresponding to weekly 50% Fibonacci level), where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

This week, the market has already pushed above the weekly supply (1.5530) and 1.5720 (FE 100%). That is why the current weekly candle closure should be monitored to determine the next destination of the pair.

Note that persistence above the weekly supply at 1.5530 hinders the long-term bearish trend for some time.

1431959669_gbpdaily.png

Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency had been expressed on the daily chart until the bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a long-term bullish reversal pattern).

The price zone between 1.5000 and 1.5050 (daily 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) failed to hold. Moreover, it now constitutes a prominent demand level for the GBP/USD pair.

It offered a valid buy entry for retesting that took place last week. S/L can advance to 1.5500 to secure some profits now.

As already mentioned, daily closure above the weekly supply zone 1.5500-1.5530 exposed the next supply level located at 1.5720 (100% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing).

The next supply level to meet the pair is located near 1.5990 (141.4% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing) if the current daily candlestick closes again above 1.5720 (100% FE).

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.5450-1.5500 constitutes a prominent demand zone to be watched for valid Intraday BUY entries if a bearish pullback occurs.

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