EUR/JPY reaches profit target, time to turn bearish

Price dropped and reached our profit target, as expected. We are now bearish below the resistance at 121.20 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance), looking for a further drop to 119.93 (Fibonacci projection, Fibonacci retracement).

RSI (34) sees descending resistance that holds the price down.

Sell below 121.20. Set stop loss at 121.76 and take profit at 119.93.

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AUD/JPY reaches profit target, remain bullish

Price shot up and reached our profit target. We now remain bullish above 85.04 major support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal swing low support) for a push up to at least 85.70 as we try to make the most out of the range between these levels for more profits.

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 9% level.

Buy above 85.04. Set stop loss at 84.59 and take profit at 85.70.

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USD/CHF strong support broken, time to turn bearish

Price has broken a previous strong support level and we are now bearish below 1.0045 (multiple overlap resistance, Fibonacci retracement, price action) for a drop to 0.9941 (Fibonacci projection, Fibonacci retracement).

RSI (34) is seeing multiple descending resistance lines holding price down.

Sell below 1.0045. Stop loss at 1.0134. Take profit at 0.9941.

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EUR/USD strong resistance broken, time to go bullish

We turn bullish on EURUSD after it has broken a previously strong support level. We are bullish above 1.0677 support (multiple swing high support, Fibonacci retracement, price action) and hope to see price make a push up to 1.0795 (major swing high resistance).

RSI (34) has made a bullish exit signalling a rise is expected.

Buy above 1.0677. Stop loss at 1.0580. Take profit at 1.0796.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 18, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair surprised by strong bullish momentum that forced it to surpass 138.90 level yesterday. The price is attracted towards 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 140.00. The bearish scenario depends on the stability of the barrier. The pair is making attempts to regain the bearish bias and to repeat the pressure on 137.40. Surpassing 140.00 will cancel the negative overview to resume the rally to target 141.40. First, the price is to reach the bearish channel's resistance at 142.70. The expected trading range for today is between 140.00 and 137.40

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Daily analysis of Gold for January 18, 2016

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Overview

Gold price eventually confirmed breaching $1,211.31 after closing the daily candlestick above it. This supports the continuation of the bullish rally on the intraday and short-term basis. Besides, it opens the way towards $1,249.94 in the short run. The metal is to trade within the bullish channel that is displayed on the chart. Therefore, we are waiting for a clearer upside track in the near sessions that is supported by the EMA50. We are being aware that breaking $1,211.31 and then $1,200.00 will stop the bullish rally and push the price down to visit $1,172.68 before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between $1,200.00 support and $1,235.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for January 18, 2017

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Overview

Silver price managed to surpass the $17.00 barrier and settle above it, where it faces the resistance of the correctional bearish channel that appears on the chart. The metal is likely to breach this resistance to confirm the continuation of the rise in the short term. Its next target is seen at $17.43. In general, silver is set to follow the bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis unless breaking $16.56. Let me remind you that breaching $17.43 level will extend silver gains to reach $18.30 as the next main station. The expected trading range for today is between $16.90 support and $17.43 resistance.

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Gold analysis for January 18, 2017

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Recently, gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,212.14, heading upwards. On the 4H time frame, I found an upward channel, which is holding successfully and also there is successful rejection from 25SMA displaced 5, which provides good support. The trend is bullish and you should look for buying opportunities. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of $1,221.80 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of $1,233.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,214.40

R2: 1,217.65

R3: 1,222.95

Support levels:

S1: 1,203.85

S2: 1,200.60

S3: 1,195.30

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for buying opportunities on dips.

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EUR/NZD analysis for January 18, 2017

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downward. The price tested the level of 1.4824 in a high volume. According to the 4H time frame, I found rejection from resistance at the price of 1.4875. EUR/NZD is in a short-term downward trend. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci expansion and I found a downward target at the price of 1.4730.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1.4915

R2: 1.4940

R3: 1.4980

Support levels:

S1: 1.4830

S2: 1.4800

S3: 1.4760

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 18, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair managed to break above its intraday key resistance at 112.90, which should open the path towards 113.65. The 50-period moving average is still on the upside, and is also acting as support. Furthermore, the relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality level at 50. To sum up, as long as 112.90 is not broken, the pair is likely to advance to 113.95.

Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 113.65 and the second one at 113.95. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 112.50 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 112.00. The pivot point is at 112.90.

Resistance levels: 113.65, 113.95, 114.45

Support levels: 112.50, 112.00, 111.65

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 18, 2017

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USD/CHF is inder pressure. The technical picture of the pair is bearish below its declining 50-period moving average, which plays resistance role and maintains the downside bias. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. Additionally, the level of 1.0050 (Jan 12 and 13 lows) represents a significant key resistance level, which should limit the upside potential.

As long as this key level holds on the upside, look for a further drop towards 0.9990 and even 0.9945 in extension.

Resistance levels: 1.0080, 1.0120, 1.0180

Support levels: 0.9990, 0.9950, 0.9900

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Global macro overview for 18/01/2017

Global macro overview for 18/01/2017:

The US Consumer Price Index data are scheduled for release today at 01:30 pm GMT. Market participants expect a 0.3% increase in inflation on a monthly basis, after a 0.2% increase a month ago (2.1% expected on yearly basis). If the yearly expectations are met, then the inflation in the US will pop up to a two-year high in December. Moreover, if the overall estimate is right, the case will strengthen for expecting the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates this year. A rate hike at next month's policy meeting is still considered unlikely, but today's CPI report will likely to back the view that the Fed's still on track to raise rates in 2017.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture in the 4H time frame. Yesterday's impressive Pound rally made the Dollar weaken and the market closed the daily candle below the important technical support at the level of 100.53. Nevertheless, the bullish trend is still intact, because the trend reversal would require the level of 99.41 to be broken as well. Any breakout above the level of 101.73 will be considered as the first clue of a trend resumption.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 18, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to extend it upside movement. The pair recorded a succession of higher tops and higher bottoms since Jan 18 and is holding on the upside. The upward momentum is further reinforced by its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. As long as 0.7180 is support, look for a further upside toward 0.7215 and even 0.7250 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7215 and the second one at 0.7250. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7140 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7110. The pivot point is at 0.7180.

Resistance levels: 0.7215, 0.7250, 0.7275

Support levels: 0.7140, 0.7110, 0.7090

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Global macro overview for 18/01/2017

Global macro overview for 18/01/2017:

During the speech in London yesterday, UK Prime Minister Theresa May revealed her point of view regarding the Brexit negotiations. She said, "I want the United Kingdom to come out of this period stronger, fairer, more united and more oriented towards the outside, than ever before. We will not be any longer in the single market". Prime Minister assured that the citizens of European Union countries will "still be welcome" in Britain and that she wants as soon as possible to guarantee their rights. May added the fact that the exit from the European Union means full control over the movement of people and services. In the case of immigrants, borders are to remain open as wide as possible, in particular for highly-skilled specialists. She emphasized that her country does not want to try to be "half-present" in the EU. The United Kingdom plans to fully exit the European single market, however, they want to negotiate a new and best possible trade agreement, which will enable UK companies to sell their products in the EU and vice versa. So European companies will be given the widest possible access to the UK market. In conclusion, Theresa May speech presented a smooth, orderly Brexit plan with much room for negotiations.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in 4H time frame. The pair rallied the most since 2008, a 2.8% in a single day, during and after the Prime Minister speech. The gap between the levels of 1.2085 - 1.2168 was easily filled and the price has stopped just below the level of 1.2432. Currently, the market is in the corrective cycle and the price is trading at the technical support at the level of 1.2317. Please notice, that if the level of 1.2432 is violated, then the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2729.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 18, 2017

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GBP/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles now, and accelerated on the upside. The relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. As long as 138.55 is support, look for a further upside toward 1.2430 and even 140 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 136.60. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 135.00. The pivot point stands at 138.00. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 138.45 and the second one at 139.00.

Resistance levels: 138.45, 139.00, 139.75

Support levels: 136.60, 136, 135.30

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 18, 2017

General overview for 18/01/2017:

Another marginal lower low had been made on this market, but both scenarios are still equally valid as none of the important levels were violated. The bottom for the wave c of wave (c blue) might have been placed at the level of 1.3018 and growing bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports this view. That would suggest the market might try to break out above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.3188 and head higher towards the next resistance at the level of 1.3259. However, in case of a failure, the down leg might extend to the level of 1.2883.

Support/Resistance:

1.2883 - WS2

1.2994 - WS1

1.3018 - Intraday Support

1.3143 - Weekly Pivot

1.3188 - Intraday Resistance

1.3259 - WR1

1.3293 - Technical Resistance

1.3408 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders only if the level of 1.3188 is clearly violated. TP should be left open for now, while the first logical level is the weekly pivot resistance at the level of 1.3408.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 18, 2017

General overview for 18/01/2017:

The pair hit a fresh intraday high at the level of 121.39 after the consolidation zone had been violated. The market came back, however, to test the intraday support at the level of 120.53, but did not make a new low. Currently, another leg upward is expected with the projected target at the level of 121.70 and then at the weekly pivot at the level of 122.01. Please notice, that according to the Elliott wave count, there is still one more big wave to the upside missing - wave (5) blue.

Support/Resistance:

120.53 - Intraday Support

120.89 - Technical Support

121.39 - Intraday Resistance

122.01 - Weekly Pivot

122.82 - WR1

123.85 - Swing High

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should keep the buy orders open and the SL should be placed below the level of 120.53. TP should be set at the level of 122.01.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 18, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.0173 and 1.0040. The pair dropped from the level of 1.0173/1.0040 to the bottom around 1.0012. This week, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0040 followed by 1.0173, while daily support 1 is found at 1.0040. Current price is seen at 1.0040. Besides, the level of 1.0040 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major support this week. Amid the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still in a downtrend, because it is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of the levels of 1.0173/1.0040 towards the first support level at 1.0040 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.0040, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.0040. Sell orders are recommended below the area of 1.0040 with the first target at the level of 1.0000; and continue towards 0.9946. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.0173, then this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the zone of 1.0040.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 18, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the levels of 0.7095 and 0.7157. The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.7238 or higher. The pair rose from the level of 0.7095 (the level of 0.7095 coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 0.7180. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.7157 followed by 0.7095, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.7194. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7157 and 0.7238; so we expect a range of 81 pips (0.7238 - 0.7157). Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100). On the four-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.7194. Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7194, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 0.7238 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7049 (horizontal green line).
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Technical analysis of USDX for January 18, 2017

The Dollar index remains in a short-term bearish trend and is moving towards our 100-99 target area where important medium-term support is found. Today we may see a bounce but overall I expect the bearish trend to continue. So any bounce should be seen as an opportunity to sell again.

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Red lines -bearish channel

The Dollar index is trading below the Ichimoku cloud and inside the bearish channel. Price is bouncing off the lower channel boundary, so we may see some upward movement today and tomorrow. Short-term resistance is found at 101 and next at 101.50. Support is at 100 and at 99.

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Green line - long-term support

On a weekly basis things are quite bearish. The oscillators are turning downwards from overbought levels. Price has broken through the weekly tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and is heading towards the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at 99. If this level is also broken, we should expect the green long-term trend line to be tested at least.

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Technical analysis of gold for January 18, 2017

Gold price remains inside the bullish channel and is making higher highs and higher lows. Trend remains bullish in the short term. We might see a pullback towards $1,200-$1,210. There are several divergence signs but no reversal signal.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Gold price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and inside the bullish channel. The RSI is diverging on the 4-hour chart but there is no reversal signal yet. This upward move in Gold above $1,200 increases the chances that an important long-term low is in at $1,122. Even if price pulls back, we should expect a higher low around $1,180-60 before the next big upward move.

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As expected for some time now, Gold price has reached the lower cloud boundary at $1,220. This is important resistance area. Gold price has also broken above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and could move towards the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at $1,250 before a bigger pullback starts. I remain longer-term bullish

about Gold.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 18, 2017

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Wave summary:

The corrective decline from 1.5235 has extended closer to the 1.4778 target. However, signs of fatigue is now clear and a break above 1.4886 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.5003 will confirm that wave ii/ finally has completed and wave iii/ higher to 1.5837 is ready to take over.

At no point can a break below support at 1.4654 be allowed under this count, but that outcome seem to be a very low possibility.

R3: 1.0503

R2: 1.4911

R1: 1.4886

Pivot: 1.4844

S1: 1.4794

S2: 1.4750

s3: 1.4679

Trading recommendation:

We will buy a break above 1.4886 with stop placed at 1.4650 expecting to move it higher soon.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 18, 2017

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Wave summary:

The complex correction in the wave (iv) is finally showing signs of weakness and a break above the minor resistance at 121.40 will be the first good indication that a lower structure is developing, and the wave (v) higher towards 126.54 is taking over. To confirm that the wave (v) is unfolding, we need a break above the resistance at 122.42.

Only an unexpected break below 120.50 will extend the decline in the wave (iv) lower towards 119.05 before the low finally is in place and the wave (v) can take off.

R3: 122.40

R2: 121.73

R1: 121.40

Pivot: 121.05

S1: 120.50

S2: 119.50

S3: 119.05

Trading recommendation:

Buy upon a break above minor resistance at 121.40 with stop placed at 120.45.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 18, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y and German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the economic data, too, such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Beige Book, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m and the Fed Chair Yellen Speaks, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0762.

Strong Resistance:1.0756.

Original Resistance: 1.0745.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0734.

Target Inner Area: 1.0709.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0684.

Original Support: 1.0673.

Strong Support: 1.0662.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0656.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 18, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data, such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Beige Book, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m and the Fed Chair Yellen Speaks. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.63.

Resistance. 2: 113.41.

Resistance. 1: 113.19.

Support. 1: 112.91.

Support. 2: 112.69.

Support. 3: 112.47.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 18, 2017

EUR/USD: Just as it was predicted at the beginning of this week, the EUR/USD has continued its upward journey, now targeting the resistance lines at 1.0750, 1.0800 and 1.0850. These are essentially the targets for this week, and they would be attained as bulls push price further and further northwards.

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USD/CHF: As it was expected, the USD/CHF has continued its downward journey, now targeting the support levels at 1.0000 (+0.9950 and 0.9900). These are essentially the targets for this week, and they would be attained as bears push price further and further southwards. However, the psychological level at 1.0000 has appeared to be something price could not breach permanently to the downside. Price needs to go below it, staying below it, in order for the threat to the current bearish movement to disappear.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD shot upwards significantly, following the gap-down that occurred at the beginning of this week. The 400-pip rally was so strong that it overturned the bearish bias in the market (especially in the short-term). The rally is supposed to continue today as price targets the distribution territories at 1.2400, 1.2450 and 1.2500.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has now gone downwards by 160 pips this week – to underline the "sell" signal that started last week. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and further bearish movement is anticipated this week.

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EUR/JPY: This cross pair is in a bearish mode. EUR may be strong versus another currencies but it is weak versus JPY. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. Price is now below the supply zone at 121.00, targeting the demand zone at 120.50. The demand zone is expected to be breached.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 18, 2017

The index plummeted during Tuesday's session, as the bears gained traction to the south and so far, USDX is looking to reach the 100.00 level. If we see a breakout below that area, it's likely to see another push lower toward 99.00. To the upside, we can expect resistances at the 101.06 and 101.76 levels, and the latest area coincides with the 200 SMA at H1 chart.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 101.06 / 101.76

H1 chart's support levels: 100.01 / 99.00

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 100.01, take profit is at 99.00 and stop loss is at 101.03.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 18, 2017

Tuesday's session was quite volatile for the GBP-related pairs, as the UK PM's Theresa May confirmed the widely expected "Hard-Brexit" and such statement was received in a positive manner by the markets and currently, GBP/USD is testing higher levels around 1.2400. The next key resistance lies at the 1.2426 level and if the pair manages to break it, then we can expect further advances toward the 1.2491 zone, while the pullbacks should be supported by the 1.2371 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2426 / 1.2491

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2371 / 1.2291

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2426, take profit is at 1.2491 and stop loss is at 1.2359.

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