Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 7, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been hovering around the level of 1.2484 which is a local support for the price. The bulls might want to test the 50% Fibonacci retracement once again, so in the case of a successful breakout, the next target for them is 61% retracement located at the level of 1.2597. Please notice, there is an important intraday technical resistance located just above 50% Fibonacci retracement at the level of 1.2542. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is still seen at the level of 1.2406 and 1.2362. The momentum is starting to decrease and the market is coming off the overbought levels.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2879

WR2 - 1.2698

WR1 - 1.2610

Weekly Pivot - 1.2423

WS1 - 1.2323

WS2 - 1.2148

WS3 - 1.2056

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move even lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 7, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the level of 1.1347 which is the part of the supply zone located between the levels of 1.1347 - 1.1361. The market has made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at the top of the move and pulled-back towards the local technical support located at the level of 1.1300. The key intraday support is still seen at the level of 1.2228 and break out below this level will likely end up in test of the 1.1185 support. The momentum remains positive on H4 time frame, but there is no clear indication regarding the market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2879

WR2 - 1.2698

WR1 - 1.2610

Weekly Pivot - 1.2423

WS1 - 1.2323

WS2 - 1.2148

WS3 - 1.2056

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

July 7, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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Recently, Bullish breakout above 1.2265 has enhanced many bullish movements up to the price levels of 1.2520-1.2590 where temporary bearish rejection as well as a sideway consolidation range were established (In the period between March 27- May 12).

Shortly after, transient bearish breakout below 1.2265 (Consolidation Range Lower Limit) was demonstrated in the period between May 13 - May 26.

However, immediate bullish rebound has been expressed around the price level of 1.2080.

This brought the GBPUSD back above the depicted price zone of 1.2520-1.2600 which failed to offer sufficient bearish rejection.

Hence, short-term technical outlook has turned into bullish, further bullish advancement was expressed towards 1.2780 (Previous Key-Level) where signs of bearish rejection were expressed.

Short-term bearish pullback was expressed, initial bearish destination was located around 1.2600 and 1.2520.

Moreover, a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern (with potential bearish target around 12265) was recently demonstrated on the chart.

That's why, bearish persistence below 1.2500 ( neckline of the reversal pattern ) was needed to pause the bullish outlook for sometime to enable further bearish decline.

However, significant bullish rejection around 1.2265 brought the GBP/USD pair back towards 1.2490.

Any bullish pullback towards 1.2520-1.2550 (recent supply zone) should be watched by Intraday traders for a valid SELL Entry.

Trade recommendations :

Intraday traders can wait for the current bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.2520-1.2550 (Recent Supply Zone) for another valid SELL Entry.

S/L should be placed above 1.2600 while T/P level to be located around 1.2450 & 1.2265.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD and USD/JPY on July 7

EUR/USD

Analysis:

In the European currency market, an upward wave of the daily scale has been forming since March. The last unfinished section started on June 5. This is a flat correction. The wave structure is not complete today. The price is at the lower border of the strong potential reversal zone.

Forecast:

Today, the upward movement vector is expected to complete, with a further transition to a sideways flat. Then you should wait for the reversal and the beginning of the decline. The entire described sequence may stretch over the next day.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 1.1330/1.1360

Support:

- 1.1250/1.1220

Recommendations:

Purchases of the euro today may be risky due to the expected small growth potential. It is safer to wait for the reversal signals to complete and open a sell deal.

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USD/JPY

Analysis:

The chart of the Japanese yen since March 20 shows the development of a downward correction zigzag of the daily scale. Since June 5, the last part of the wave has formed. An intermediate correction is nearing completion. The final section of the wave structure is missing.

Forecast:

Today, the downward mood of the movement is expected to end. Then, in the area of the support zone, you can wait for the formation of a reversal and a return to the ascending rate. The last phase may shift to the Asian session.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 107.80/108.10

Support:

- 107.10/106.80

Recommendations:

Trading the yen on the market today is appropriate only within the intraday style. In the first half of the day, you can sell a reduced lot. By the end of the day, you should change the trading vector and look for entry into long positions.

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Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted ones show the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ISM insists that the US economy will grow, but the global recovery is still far away; Overview of USD, NZD, and AUD

The PMI in the services sector (which, by the way, is 88% of the entire US economy) rose to 57.1% in June, significantly exceeding forecasts. New orders also increased by 61.6%, while business activity by 66%, and all this is happening against the background of an ongoing reduction in continuing staff cuts, employment by 43.5%. The latter factor constrains optimism about the US economic recovery and increases the chances of a pullback in July-August.

US stock indices continued to grow steadily. Most of the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges are in the positive zone, with the exception of the Japanese Nikkei. As of 5.30 Universal time, a positive attitude remains, which gives a chance for continued growth in oil and commodity sector currencies. The dollar is still under pressure across the entire spectrum of the market, but if its weakness was obvious a week ago, the first signs of a near reversal have appeared today.

NZD/USD

The CFTC report confirmed the trend towards the strengthening of NZD, but the growth of a long position this time turned out to be very small, and perhaps, the upward impulse shows the first signs of exhaustion. Despite this, the estimated price is higher than the spot price and is directed upwards, so the chances of testing the level of 0.6582 look high.

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At the same time, a quarterly report from the New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER) showed that economic activity in New Zealand declined sharply in June. A decline in own trading activity was announced by a net 37% of enterprises, and this is the worst indicator since March 2009. A net 25% also expect a decrease in demand in the next quarter, 28% expect to reduce the number of employees, and this is also the worst indicator since March 2009.

Enterprises plan to reduce investment in both real estate and equipment over the coming year. The construction sector is most pessimistic, 75% of firms expect economic conditions to worsen in the coming months, and 61% of firms expect deterioration in the services sector. Thus, manufacturers report a decrease in both domestic and foreign demand.

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There is no sign of optimism rising after the blocking mode was removed, and this is an unexpected and rather strange result of the study. ANZ Bank believes that a deep recession in New Zealand is inevitable, and there is no reason to believe that this scenario can be avoided even if the COVID is completely defeated. ANZ believes that RBNZ will increase the volume of weekly purchases under the LSAP program.

So, we can say the following on the totality of the parameters. The CFTC report still has an advantage, but the growth of a long position is slowing down. Business studies show a deterioration in economic activity and preparation for a recession, the RBNZ will increase the incentive program. All these factors are negative for the New Zealand currency, so we can assume that the upward momentum is close to exhaustion.

Testing the resistance level of 0.6583 is approaching, so for now, it is necessary to proceed from the fact that there are chances of success and the movement to 0.6750 will continue. But the scenario of the formation of a double top looks more likely, that is, the Kiwi will turn down after testing the level of 0.6583.

AUD/USD

According to the results of the meeting on Tuesday morning, the RBA left the current monetary policy parameters unchanged, the rate at the level of 0.25% at this stage looks balanced. The accompanying statement is generally kept in very cautious tones, emphasizing that there will be no tightening of policy until there is clear progress towards full employment, and inflation does not become stable in the range of 2-3%.

When this blessed time comes, the RBA does not know and does not try to predict, citing a very high level of uncertainty. The CFTC report showed that the flow of funds in AUD is declining, the growth of the estimated price is also slowing down.

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The AUD/USD pair is trying to consolidate above the resistance of 0.6875, there are still chances, but they are getting less every day. If the day closes above this level, the probability of moving to the level of 0.7063 will become slightly higher, but more and more factors indicate that the Australian currency forms the top, after which a downward pullback will begin. To continue growth, positivity is necessary, which is clearly not enough.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 7. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's trade). Pound buyers form the basis

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

From a technical point of view, only the resistance level of 1.2516 has changed since yesterday, which is the upper limit of the base that buyers of the pound have formed to continue the bullish momentum. It was not possible to wait for signals to enter the market yesterday amid such low volatility. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 30 recorded another increase in short and long positions, which indicates a confrontation between buyers and sellers. The latter needs to be more active to return the wounds to their side. The chart shows that the demand for long positions increases every time the price drops more or less interestingly. The COT report indicates that there was an increase in short non-commercial positions from 48,170 to 55,414 during the week. During this time, long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 29,654 to the level of 34,424. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased its negative value to -20,990 against -18,516, which indicates that the market is still under pressure after the bulls' unsuccessful attempt to continue the upward trend last week. As for the current situation in the market, the primary task of buyers is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.2516, which should lead to the demolition of the bears' stop orders and a larger increase in GBP/USD to the high of 1.2585, where I recommend taking profits. The long-term goal will be a high of 1.2676. If there is no active growth above the resistance of 1.2516, it is best to postpone long positions on the pound until a decline and update the support of 1.2448. However, you can buy GBP/USD there after a false breakout has formed, since a break in this range can return pressure to the pair. With a larger fall in the pound, it is best to open long positions for a rebound from the support of 1.2386, counting on a correction of 30-35 points at the end of the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound will definitely be more active in the resistance area of 1.2516, and the pair's direction will depend on what will happen on it. Forming another false breakout at this level will be an accurate signal to sell GBP/USD in the hope of resuming the downward correction to the low of 1.2448. However, after consolidating below this range, it will be possible to talk about the bears' return to the market, betting on the pound's fall to a low of 1.2386 and 1.2321, where I recommend taking profits. In the GBP/USD growth scenario, it is best to postpone sales until a false breakout is formed at the level of 1.2585, but you can safely open short positions immediately for a rebound after testing the high of 1.2676, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has decreased, which does not provide signals for entering the market.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • The MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. The 9 period SMA.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). The period 20.
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BCH/USD trying to test liquidity void, July 07, 2020.

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After having touched the 4-hour Chart Rejection Block, the BCH/USD pair is trading with a bearish bias. Now it is trying to test all the Liquidity Void (Light Cyan Rectangle) bellow the current price. If the BCH/USD does not rise and close above the 245 level, then the BCH/USD pair will contunie to decline to the Liquidity Void bellow the current price.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 7. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's trade). Euro buyers believe in a faster

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's data on activity in the US non-manufacturing sector once again convinced buyers of the European currency to make the right choice. And although the breakout of the 1.1297 resistance did not lead to forming a clear signal to buy the euro, it was still possible to make great money on its sales. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bulls have already tested the resistance of 1.1297 several times in the afternoon, and there was a breakout at the next attempt, which resumed the bullish momentum formed in the Asian session. Buyers were aiming for a high of 1.1346, from which I advised opening short positions immediately on the rebound, which happened. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 30 recorded an increase in short positions and a sharp reduction in long ones. This indicates that market participants took a more cautious approach to the euro last week, which is confirmed by the side channel in which the pair has been in all week. Those who want to buy the euro in current conditions and at higher prices become much less, and more and more people want to have time to enter the market before the wave of a new fall in EUR/USD, as a small surge in activity in the summer period will quickly subside before a new wave of coronavirus spread. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 72,368 to the level of 81,432, while long non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 190,816 to the level of 180,387. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position decreased to 98,955, against 118,448, which indicates a slowdown in the growth of interest in purchasing risky assets at current prices. As for the intraday strategy, euro buyers will be focused on protecting the 1.1290 support today, which was taken from sellers yesterday. Forming a false breakout on it in the first half of the day will be a signal to open long positions while expecting a return and a resistance test of 1.1346, the breakout of which will be a secondary task. Consolidating above this level will lead EUR/USD to new local highs in the area of 1.1381 and 1.1418, where I recommend taking profits. If buyers are not active at the level of 1.1290, as it was yesterday in the morning for the sellers, it is best to abandon long positions before updating a larger low of 1.1247 and open a long position immediately on the rebound, counting on a correction of 30-35 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers of the euro will wait for weak reports on industrial production in Germany and retail sales in Italy, although the June figures could please the market. Therefore, a consolidation below the support of 1.1290 closer to the second half of the day will be a signal to open short positions in the euro in the hope of pulling down and updating the larger low of 1.1247, where I recommend taking profits. The long-term goal will be the 1.1193 area. The bears will also need to cope with the moving averages that pass below the 1.1290 support. If the demand for EUR/USD persists in the first half of the day, it is best to abandon sales before forming a false breakout in the area of resistance at 1.1346, or open short positions immediately on the rebound from the larger resistance of 1.1381, counting on a downward correction by the end of the day of 20-25 points.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates active attempts by bulls to continue the growth of the European currency.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the upper limit of the indicator at 1.1335 will lead to a new upward momentum of the pair. A break in the lower border of the indicator around 1.1247 will increase pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 7. Donald Trump is once again in conflict and accuses the experts of Goldman Sachs lowers

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 66.4680

On the first trading day of the week, the pound rose slightly in price. The pair managed to return to the Murray level of "5/8"-1.2512, from which it bounced on Thursday. However, traders managed to keep the pound/dollar pair above the moving average line, so the upward movement can be continued, and the upward trend has been maintained. At the same time, without overcoming the Murray level of "5/8", we will tend to resume the downward trend, since the level of 1.2512 is also the previous local maximum, without overcoming which further growth of the pound is impossible. As for the fundamental component, we have already said in previous articles that Britain and the US now seem to be competing in who is worse off in the country. In the United States, the "coronavirus" continues to rage, President Donald Trump continues to do everything to be re-elected, and not everything to defeat the epidemic and save the lives of Americans. Rallies and protests against racism only worsened the situation with the epidemic and again showed Trump not for the better. In addition, relations with China continue to slowly heat up. In Britain, negotiations with Brussels remain in a "failed" status, quarantine has ended, as announced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and doctors and representatives of the healthcare sector immediately declared that they were waiting for new waves of the epidemic, since the British didn't observed its rules, and now rushed to the streets of cities and to public places. Thus, Britain may soon face a new outbreak of the "coronavirus" epidemic.

However, the key topic for the British pound is still "negotiations with the EU". However, last week, the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that serious differences remain between the parties, and no progress has been made in the negotiations. "Our goal was to successfully and quickly set the negotiations on a trajectory to reach an agreement. However, after four days of discussion, serious differences remain," he said last Thursday. The next round of negotiations is scheduled for the end of July, however, experts are already skeptical of new negotiations between Brussels and London, believing that it will also not yield any positive results. At the same time, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the European Union seeks to conclude an agreement with London, but is not ready to achieve it at any cost. In fact, the position of Brussels remains unchanged: there will be no concessions to London, since it is London that should fear the absence of an agreement, not Brussels.

Meanwhile, in the US, the pun called "election race" continues. Recently, US President Donald Trump did not miss the opportunity to once again prick his opponent and expressed confidence that Joe Biden is unlikely to pass an IQ test. Well, while Biden and Trump are teasing each other, official Washington, apparently, is preparing to impose new sanctions against Hong Kong and Beijing. It is reported that at this time, the White House is considering the possibility of introducing new sanctions due to the adoption by Beijing of the law "on national security in Hong Kong'', which, in fact, deprives Hong Kong of the status of an autonomous region. Experts believe that Washington will continue to put pressure on Beijing to repeal this law. At the same time, the White House is unlikely to go for an open confrontation, as Donald Trump is very afraid of the termination of the trade deal reached in January, as this event could further hit his political ratings. Also, Trump wants to avoid the introduction of new trade sanctions, as they can hit the American economy even harder. Thus, the new sanctions may affect some Chinese officials personally, rather than China or Hong Kong as a whole. Although the latter is likely to lose a number of trade preferences, which will mean the death of this district as an independent economic unit from Beijing.

The authorities of some states of America did not have time to renew quarantine (more precisely, to introduce some restrictive measures because of the high spread of the virus), as the investment bank Goldman Sachs has already lowered its GDP forecasts for the USA for 2020. Goldman Sachs economists believe that the new restrictions in a number of states will have a negative impact on the economy and growth in the third quarter will not be as strong as previously seen. Goldman Sachs experts believe that the US economy will grow by 25% in the third quarter, whereas earlier forecasts were +33%. Thus, the bank notes, in total, according to the results of 2020, the US economy may lose 4.6% by the end of 2020, and not 4.2%, as previously expected. Well, we remind you that the "coronavirus" continues to spread across the United States, so it is possible that quarantine measures will continue to increase, and other states will follow the examples of Texas and Florida.

Well, Donald Trump last week managed to "tease" not only Biden, but also to remember who is to blame for the COVID-2019 epidemic, making another unproven statement. This time, Trump said that "China's deception, secrecy and attempts to cover their tracks" resulted in the virus infecting 189 countries around the world. Therefore, Trump believes China should be punished. The American President also said that not only did the "coronavirus" come from China,but there are other viruses that broke free from this country. However, the US leader did not say what viruses they were, and did not provide evidence of China's guilt, which he promised to provide "in a few weeks" a few months ago.

On Monday, the United States published business activity indices in the service sector according to the ISM and Markit versions. The first of these indices rose to an impressive 57.1 with a forecast of 50.1. The second – up to 47.9. However, in any case, the indices rose, and the more significant is the ISM, which went to the area "above 50.0". However, the US dollar did not rise much on these reports. No major publications are scheduled for Tuesday in the UK and US.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 91 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this indicator is "average". On Tuesday, July 7, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2398 and 1.2580. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2451

S2 – 1.2390

S3 – 1.2329

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2512

R2 – 1.2573

R3 – 1.2634

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is fixed above the moving average on the 4-hour timeframe, however, it cannot overcome the level of 1.2512. Thus, today it is recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2573 and 1.2634 and keep them open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down, if traders manage to overcome the level of 1.2512. It is recommended to sell the pair after the reverse consolidation of quotes below the moving average with the first goals of 1.2390 and 1.2329.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Coronavirus, North Korea and Trump: dollar trading against a contradictory fundamental picture

The dollar index shows conflicting dynamics, reacting to varied fundamental background. On the one hand, the coronavirus factor exerts pressure on the greenback - an increase in the number of infections in the United States has prompted several states to stop lifting restrictions and change the terms of easing. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump continues to remain calm, claiming a reduction in mortality from COVID-19. On the one hand, risk appetite increased in the foreign exchange market amid growing key macroeconomic indicators in the US and Europe. On the other hand, yesterday's announcement by North Korea to abandon negotiations with Washington alarmed market participants. In addition, amid difficult relations with China, the United States sent two aircraft carriers to the South China Sea to conduct exercises. Beijing reacted negatively to this decision by the Pentagon, and this fact reduced investor interest in risk.

Such a varied fundamental picture does not allow dollar bulls to develop another offensive. However, the downward movement of the dollar index is limited. By and large, the US dollar index continues to fluctuate in the flat range of 96.6-97.6, within which it has been located since the beginning of June.

Let's start with the coronavirus. This is indeed the # 1 topic for dollar bulls - medical reports from the United States play no less significant role than macroeconomic reports. The White House's reaction to published statistics, in the context of a possible return to the nationwide lockdown, is also in the spotlight. Recent events and comments on this subject carry conflicting signals.

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According to the latest data, the daily growth rate consistently exceeds the 40,000 mark. New cases of coronavirus infection were detected in the United States on July 4. The figure reached 57,497, which was the largest daily increase in cases since the beginning of the pandemic. Against the background of such trends, there were suggestions that the country will again be closed for quarantine with all the consequences that follow from this. But the White House is showing its equanimity. First, Trump recently said that the death rate from COVID-19 in the country has decreased by 39% compared to the peak of the epidemic. In his opinion, the media is "silent about the success in the fight against the epidemic." Secondly, he believes that educational institutions should open in the fall – he does not see any threats in this. Moreover, in his opinion, the Democrats, led by Joe Biden, want to use school closures for political purposes in the presidential election. In other words, Trump clearly does not intend to close the country to quarantine, and the issue of repeated lockdown is considered in a political context, in the aspect of the upcoming presidential elections.

However, if the rate of spread of the coronavirus continues to increase, the quarantine may be tightened at the local level. Such measures were called for, in particular, by the leaders of Austin and Houston — the largest cities in the state of Texas, which found a record number of new cases of the virus in a day — 8,258.

As we can see, the coronavirus factor is not unambiguous, given the position of the American President. But the dollar will be under strong pressure again if the daily growth rate increases and steadily exceeds the 50,000 mark.

If we consider the influence of the external fundamental background, it is also not so clear. On one side of the coin is the positive dynamics of many macroeconomic indicators, both in Europe and in the United States. For example, the German industrial order volume published yesterday came out of negative territory (where it had been for the previous three months) and reached a ten percent increase on a monthly basis. For comparison, there was a decline of almost 30% in the previous month. We were also pleased with US data: the ISM composite index for the non-manufacturing sector came out in the green zone, rising to 57 points in June. The indicator shows an upward trend for the second consecutive month. Also published yesterday was the PMI in the UK construction sector, which was also much better than expected. All these signs of recovery in the world's key economies have provoked increased demand for risky assets, the euro in particular. In turn, the dollar, which was used by the market as a protective asset for almost the entire spring, was again left without proper attention of investors.

However, the risk appetite slightly eased in the second half of Monday. The fault lies in North Korea. Let me remind you that on Sunday, the president of South Korea made a proposal to hold a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un before the US presidential election in November in order to resume negotiations on nuclear disarmament. Yesterday, the reaction of the DPRK followed: according to a representative of their foreign ministry, North Korea "does not intend to negotiate with Washington." At the same time, he added that relations between the countries are becoming "more complicated and sad".

However, this fundamental factor is unlikely to have a long-term impact. Pyongyang makes such statements with relative regularity, while the fact of the uneasy relations between the US and North Korea has long been known to everyone.

Thus, despite the contradictory fundamental picture, the dollar retains the potential for its further weakening – especially if the number of infected people in the United States increases at an accelerated pace. Trump's equanimity is explained by political reasons – if he repeatedly closes the country to quarantine, he will personally sign a loss in the election. But if the daily increase is consistently higher than the 50,000 mark, the dollar will inevitably be under pressure, in anticipation of stricter quarantine restrictions at the federal level.

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Speaking directly about the EUR/USD pair, the bulls managed to gain a foothold above 1.1260 - the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which coincides with the Tenkan-sen line. In turn, the Ichimoku indicator formed a bullish Parade of Lines signal. All this indicates the priority of longs to the first resistance level of 1.1360 - this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for July 7, 2020

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After a nice run to the 61.8% resistance target at 0.9183 we saw that EUR/GBP corrected a bit stronger than we had expected. However, EUR/GBP met strong trendline support near 0.9000, which is expected to protect the downside from renewed upside pressure through minor resistance at 0.9079 and more importantly through resistance at 0.9109 that indicates a new test and ultimately a break above the minor peak at 0.9175 for a continuation towards the next minor target at 0.9276.

An unexpected break below the short-term important support at 0.9000 will delay the expected rally for a dip to 0.8946.

R3: 0.9183

R2: 0.9125

R1: 0.9079

Pivot: 0.9040

S1: 0.9000

S2: 0.8946

S3: 0.8910

Trading recommendation:

We are long on EUR from 0.8760, we should raise our stop to 0.8985

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 7, 2020

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EUR/JPY is currently testing support near 121.31, which ideally will be able to protect the downside for the next impulsive rally higher towards 122.12 and beyond for a move closer to the peak at 124.43. If, however, support at 121.31 gives away, a drop to 121.10 should be expected before the next push higher is seen.

Only an unexpected break below 120.57 will force us to review our bullish count.

R3: 122.12

R2: 121.71

R1: 121.56

Pivot: 121.30

S1: 121.10

S2: 120.95

S3: 120.71

Trading recommendation:

We are long on EUR from 119.95 with our stop placed at 120.71

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USD/JPY broke out of trend line, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 107.674

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 106.830

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 108.080

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for July 07, 2020

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Technical outlook:

Yesterday, EUR/USD tested its recent swing highs around the 1.1340/45 levels before pulling back. The single currency was trading around the 1.1320 levels at the moment of writing the article. It may reverse lower again. The Fibonacci extensions are pointing lower towards the 1.1008 and 1.0750 levels respectively. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1350 followed by 1.1420 respectively while interim support stays at the 1.1167 levels. A push below 1.1167 would confirm that a lower high was carved around 1.1340/45 and EUR/USD is moving lower. Only a break above the 1.1420 interim resistance would change the above-mentioned structure.

Trading plan:

Remain short. Stop is at 1.1420. Targets are 1.1008 and 1.1750.

Good luck!

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 7, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro broke the resistance of the target level of 1.1265 on Monday, showing a growth of 61 points. The price peaked on June 23. After overcoming the intermediate level of 1.1353, we expect the growth to continue to 1.1420, the second goal is 1.1465. Reaching any of these levels with the Marlin oscillator will form a technical divergence, which will become a reversal signal. Perhaps a medium-term downward trend.

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The price is firmly held above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart – the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue). The Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. We are waiting for the euro to grow to the designated goal of 1.1420.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on July 7, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar added 30 points on Monday thanks to the overall weakening of the US dollar (-0.37%) and the growth of commodities: iron ore 1.80%, copper 2.12%, oil 0.34%. Values may continue to increase for some time on growing risk appetites, but we do not expect any long-term trend – the second wave of coronavirus infection is developing in the world.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered the growing trend zone on the daily chart, and it is very possible that a triple divergence of the oscillator will be formed with the price. This is a strong reversal pattern. To form such a divergence, the price needs to enter the target range of 0.7190-0.7225, this range is formed by the extremes of February, April and July 2019, August 2018. The aussie's first goal is the July 2019 high at the price of 0.7080. Overcoming this level will allow the price to reach the second target range.

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The price is rising above the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart, but it has already significantly broken away from them, so the price has slightly pulled back with a decreasing Marlin oscillator. After a few black candles, we are waiting for the recovery of the Australian dollar.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 7, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair tested the resistance of 107.77 and retreated on the first day of the week, eventually closing the day by losing 17 points. The price never left the body of the candle above the balance indicator line on the daily chart, staying under it for four sessions. The Marlin is currently in the negative zone. It is difficult for the pair to grow.

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But the main trend remains bullish, the question is whether it will be able to remain so, the price should not go below 107.00 for it to do so, that is, under the MACD line on the daily chart, and the price will have to overcome the resistance of 107.77 in order to confidently continue growth to 108.38 and 108.95.

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The price is located between the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart. Here the price has two supports: the actual MACD line and just below the support of the trend line of the price channel of the daily timeframe (107.08). The nearest task is to go over the balance line (107.50), repeat the attack at 107.77 and gain a foothold over it. This is our main scenario, but it is no longer being implemented today.

It is not advisable to trade in the current situation, you need to wait for the consolidation of a particular trend.

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USDCAD bouncing from 1st support, more upside!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3528

Reason for Entry: 61% fib extension

Take Profit :1.3576

Reason for Take Profit: The horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss:1.3486

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing low support

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AUDUSD reacting above supports! Further rise expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.69947

Reason for Entry: Market entry

Take Profit: 0.70511

Reason for Take Profit: -61.8% Fibonacci retracement, ascending trendline support

Stop Loss: 0.69677

Reason for Stop Loss: Ascending trendline support, 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on July 7. COT report. London-Brussels talks hinder pound growth

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD currency pair, in contrast to EUR/USD, was trading very reluctantly and frankly sluggish on Monday. After the pair left the downward channel and overcame the resistance area of 1.2404–1.2424, buyers got a certain carte blanche, but they can't take full advantage of it yet. Thus, in the current conditions, the upward trend continues as long as the pair's quotes continue to remain above the area of 1.2404–1.2424 and the Senkou span B and Kijun-sen lines. Bears will only be able to return to the market below these three supports. There is also a fairly strong resistance line around the 1.2530 level, from which the quotes have rebounded several times.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels continue to be directed upwards on a 15-minute timeframe, so the overall trend remains upward in the short term. However, the lack of overcoming the 1.2530 level can push the pair down by 250 points.

The COT report

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The latest COT report, which covers the dates of June 24-30, shows that the pound was traded by large traders very actively at this time. Major market participants basically reduced contracts in the euro currency, but then they increased it in the pound. Professional market participants increased the number of contracts for the purchase by 4,000 and by 8,400 for sale. Thus, the net position decreased by 4,400 contracts only in the non-commercial category. It is logical that the pound has become cheaper during this period. The Commercial group, which does not set itself the goal of making a profit from foreign exchange transactions, naturally bought the pound more. If someone sells the currency, then who buys it. In total, the total net position for the pound even increased during the reporting week (18,000-15,000 = +3,000). The pound only grew after the report expired, thus, it can be assumed that professional market participants are already looking in the direction of purchases of the British currency.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair on Monday did not change much compared to the previous week. The next stage of negotiations on the terms of the Brexit agreement has failed, so the UK does not have good news for the pound. The British pound continues to rely on negative news from overseas, which helps this currency grow from time to time. As for the UK itself, Great Britain's economy in 2020 will continue to sink in any case. Yes, there will be a recovery by the end of the year, but it will not be as rapid as, for example, in the EU. In 2021, new shocks are also possible for the British economy, since this year the country can start trading with the European Union under the rules of the World Trade Organization, that is, with quotas, duties and other charms of non-EU membership. From our point of view, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has not achieved anything positive for his country in almost a year of his rule. The only thing that can be credited to him is the completion of Brexit. And even then, not to him, but to the British people, who for the second time expressed their will to leave the EU as soon as possible, when they gave the majority of votes to the Conservatives. Based on this, we believe that the pound can continue to grow, but for this, traders will need to constantly feed on the negative from overseas. In this case, market participants will have reasons to continue to get rid of the dollar. However, new portions of negativity from Britain may return the desire of traders to get rid of the pound.

There are two main scenarios as of July 7:

1) Since the resistance area of 1.2404-1.2424 has been passed, the upward movement has more prospects now . However, at the same time, the pound/dollar pair stopped near the past local high (about 1.2530) and the bulls still can not overcome it. Therefore, we recommend buying the pair after overcoming this level with targets at resistance levels of 1.2589 and 1.2698. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 40 to 150 points.

2) Sellers are advised to wait until the pair has been pinned below the support area of 1.2404-1.2424, and at the same time the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines. In this case, the downward trend will take place, and the first targets for sell orders will be 1.2311 and the support area of 1.2196-1.2216. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 70 to 170 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair for July 7. COT report. Bulls did not cope with the first critical

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair perfectly worked out the resistance area of 1.1326–1.1342 in the hourly timeframe on July 6, which we previously designated as quite strong and is also an approximate upper line of the side channel in which the pair has been trading in for the last month. Thus, buyers showed that they do not have the strength to leave the side channel at the moment. After the price rebounds from the upper line, you can only expect a fall to the lower border, which runs around the level of $.12. Thus, in the current conditions, buyers need to overcome the area of 1.1326–1.1342 in order for the euro to continue to grow in price.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed upwards on a 15-minute timeframe, signaling an upward trend in the most short-term plan. However, the side channel and the pair rebounded off its upper line – a downward movement can already begin.

The COT report

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The new COT report, which was released on Monday, showed that during the reporting week (June 24–30), professional traders were busy closing buy contracts and opening sell contracts. It is interesting that the European currency fell in price during this period of time, but not too much, not by -17,000 contracts in the net position. At the same time, from a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair is now in a flat, which is clearly visible on the 4-hour timeframe and even higher. Thus, we cannot conclude that major market participants have completely abandoned euro purchases. It should also be noted that market participants who hedge their risks have closed contracts for sale in the reporting week with the same zeal, thus slightly offsetting the actions of speculators. In total, 8,500 Buy-contracts and 3,000 Sell-contracts were closed. Therefore, almost in any case, the euro should have fallen in price during the reporting week. But the future prospects of the euro are difficult to track on the COT report. All recent changes have not been trending.

The overall fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair was almost absent on Monday. Several business activity indices published in the US and retail sales in the European Union did not have a particularly strong impact on the pair's movement from our point of view. Moreover, since the side channel is clearly visible on the 4-hour timeframe, this means that such a trend is currently absent, although the European currency still has a certain advantage from a fundamental point of view. Thus, first of all, market participants need to overcome the level of 1.1353 (the Murray level "5/8" according to the linear regression channels system). Only then will it be possible to pay attention to fundamental events and macroeconomic reports again. In general, we believe that the foundation is now on the side of the euro, mainly due to the fact that the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic has begun in the United States, although we believe that this is an incomplete first wave. Thus, America may soon face new problems related to quarantine restrictions, which might affect the economy. In the European Union, in terms of coronavirus, everything is much calmer and there are few openly negative topics for the euro.

Based on all of the above, we have two trading ideas for July 7:

1) Buyers reached the 1.1326-1.1342 area for the third time in the last month and rebounded from it for the third time. Thus, we advise you to buy the euro but not before this area has been overcome with the goals of resistance levels 1.1362 and 1.1422. Potential Take Profit is up to 80 points.

2) Sellers are unable to return to the market today. To begin with, we expect the pair's quotes to fall to the two strong lines of the Ichimoku indicator - Senkou span B (1.1258) and Kijun-sen (1.1266). However, we do not advise you to trade the first stage of a new fall. It is better to wait until the support area of 1.1227–1.1243 has been overcome. And only then should you open short positions with the goals of 1.1186 and 1.1126. The potential Take Profit in this case is from 35 to 95 points.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 7. President of the European Council Charles Michel: "The EU will need years to return

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 177.4751

The currency pair was trading quite uneasily on the first trading day of the new week. It seems that at the end of the past week, American market participants left it in advance. On Thursday, and yesterday, they began to work out all the things that they missed in those days. And they missed quite a lot. For example, macroeconomic statistics from the United States, the publication of which was specifically moved from Friday to Thursday to make Friday a day off in honor of Independence Day, which was officially scheduled for Saturday, July 4. We described the package of macroeconomic statistics from overseas as contradictory, as some reports turned out to be optimistic, however, recalling the fall of the same indicators in April-May, the current growth seems very weak. First of all, this applies to NonFarm Payrolls, which increased by as much as 4.8 million. However, two months earlier, this figure lost 11 million. The unemployment rate has fallen, however, it has fallen to 11.1%, which is a very high figure. Wages decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous month. Thus, in general, this package of statistics can be considered negative for the dollar, although at first glance it does not seem so. There are no other explanations for the growth of the European currency on Monday. However, we would also like to note that at this time, traders may pay increased attention to the "coronavirus" epidemic in the United States. Yes, that's the exact wording. If earlier it was a worldwide epidemic, now only a few countries of the world continue to update their anti-records for disease incidence daily. And the United States is in a confident first place on this sad indicator. Moreover, the situation is aggravated by the fact that the country's quarantine did not bear much fruit. The epidemic was only contained for a while, but after Donald Trump began to "open" the economy, after rallies and protests raged in the country for about a month, after Donald Trump himself began to ride around the country with his election rallies, the situation with the "coronavirus" immediately escalated and every day is now recorded 40-50 thousand new cases of the disease. And this means that the pandemic in the United States persists and it is bad from which side not to look. Even if there is no new "lockdown", it is still bad for the economy. Sick and scared people will not go to work, especially as long as the United States pays increased unemployment benefits. Businesses will continue to suffer, which again threatens to lose jobs and increase unemployment. People will not be socially active, as they realize that the COVID-2019 virus is not dormant. It is in Europe that the population has calmed down, the authorities have lifted the quarantine, since in most countries the incidence rates have fallen almost to zero, and new local outbreaks are immediately tracked and localized. In America, everything is different. In the worst case, the country will face a new quarantine. Some states have already imposed some restrictions since the virus is spreading at a very high rate.

From all this, we can draw a banal conclusion that the European economy is now not hindered by anything to begin to recover. Of course, it would be easier to do this if the European Parliament, the European Commission, and the European Council agreed on an additional package of assistance to the EU economy for 750 billion euros, however, this is not yet the case. But the European Union managed to defeat the "coronavirus" and stop its spread. Thus, it is the European economy that is now in a better position than the American one. And it is the euro currency that for the first time in many years has an advantage (albeit small) over the US dollar. We do not claim that the euro will now start a new long-term upward trend, however, the fundamental and macroeconomic advantage of the dollar has indeed been leveled in the past few months.

However, even in this advantageous position, the top officials of the European Union see high risks for the economy. Christine Lagarde and others have repeatedly said that a new wave of the epidemic can "finish off" the economy. European Council President Charles Michel said at the weekend at an economic forum that the EU will need years to reach pre-crisis levels. The head of the European Council said that from the first days of the pandemic, all political decisions were made through the prism of the health and life of Europeans. The main goal was to stop the spread of the virus. The EU has loosened some levers and principles for all EU member states to make it easier for them to deal with the epidemic at the national level. However, over time, it turned out that not all EU countries were ready for a pandemic crisis and showed equal opportunities to overcome the consequences. "Economic growth does not have an automatic magic power. Inequality and injustice not only sow frustration but also create obstacles to prosperity. Reducing inequality increases the stability of the economy, " said the President of the European Council. Thus, said Charles Michel, the European Union has chosen the right path: by 2050, the EU plans to reorient itself to a "green" economy, switch to digital technologies, and reduce inequality between members of the alliance.

On Monday, July 6, the European Union published a report on retail sales for May. It turned out that this indicator increased by 17.8% in monthly terms, and lost 5.1% in annual terms. These figures were significantly better than the forecast values and could also support buyers of the European currency a little. However, we believe that traders generally continue to ignore macroeconomic statistics, at least not as important as was published in the United States at the end of last week. Today, on July 7, in the European Union, Germany is scheduled to publish also not the most significant indicator of industrial production. It is expected that in the country - the locomotive of the European economy by the end of May, production will decrease by 11.1% in annual terms and add 10% monthly. On the other hand, according to Christine Lagarde, the speed of recovery of the European economy will depend on the recovery of production. Thus, this indicator is important, although it is unlikely to cause a momentary reaction. In general, the euro/dollar currency pair again reached the Murray level of "5/8"-1.1353 and continues to remain, thus, inside the side channel, in which it has been trading for almost a month. The level of 1.1353 is just its upper limit. If traders manage to overcome it, the upward movement may resume. Otherwise, the pair will try to return to around $ 1.12.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of July 7 is 76 points and is characterized as "average". We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1235 and 1.1387 today. A new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will signal a new round of downward movement within the side channel.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues to trade near the moving average line, inside the side channel. Thus, at this time, it is recommended to trade down if traders manage to overcome the level of 1.1175, which is the approximate lower limit of the channel, with the goals of 1.1108 and 1.0986. It is recommended to open buy orders no earlier than the Murray level of "5/8"-1.1353 with a target of 1.1475.

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GBP/USD. Attempt number: London tries to negotiate with Brussels

The pound-dollar pair tested the 25th figure today, reacting to the general weakening of the US dollar. The PMI index for the construction sector provided additional support for the British currency, which came out much better than forecast values. But in general, the fundamental background for GBP/USD has not changed: the pound is still under the background pressure of Brexit, so it is still advisable to use rare northern "arches" to open short positions. But longs look quite risky, given the results of the previous round of negotiations between representatives of London and Brussels.

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Let me remind you that at the end of last week, the parties parted early in the corners of the ring, refusing to hold the final meeting on Friday. The main (but not the only) differences between the negotiators arose in the field of fishing. Britain considers the EU's demand of providing European fisherman access to British fishing areas as unacceptable. According to London, such requirements are incompatible with the future status of the UK as an independent coastal state. The British want an annual review of the "admission" issue of European fishermen, but France strongly opposed such a proposal. In addition to this issue, the parties also failed to agree even on the outlines of common competition rules for business. As it turned out, negotiators interpret this term differently. According to the European Union, London's proposals put British businesses in a privileged position relative to the companies of the other members of the bloc; in turn, the British insist on their proposals, considering them fair.

On the other positions, the same differences remained – according to the negotiators themselves, the parties were not able to come one iota closer to a common denominator on key issues. Actually, for this reason, the negotiations were interrupted.

The dialogue between London and Brussels resumed today: the chief negotiator from the European Union, Michel Barnier, arrived in the British capital to take part in the next round of negotiations. They should last until the end of this week, but given the experience of the previous round, the negotiation process may be interrupted ahead of schedule. Although most experts and traders have no illusions about the current negotiations, the fact of another failure will put quite a lot of pressure on the British currency.

According to the British press, in mid-or late July (that is, before or after the EU summit), British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will visit Brussels for face-to-face and personal talks with EU leaders and the EU leadership. This step can hypothetically move the situation from a dead point. Last year, it was the personal meetings of the head of the British Parliament that decided the fate of Brexit. In this context, we can say only one thing with confidence - before the face-to-face meeting of the leaders takes place, the parties will zealously defend their positions, expressing principles and demonstrating intransigence. It is obvious that if the negotiators are too flexible until then, they will weaken the negotiating positions of their patrons. Therefore, it is highly likely that the current negotiations will share the fate of the previous ones – that is, they will end in failure.

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The situation is being escalated partly artificially, as it was done last year. For the same reason, Johnson stated his categorical disagreement with the extension of the transition period. According to the laws of the genre, the overall situation around Brexit will heat up to its limit – Johnson is preparing a comfortable (for himself) ground for key negotiations. This can also include talk about the implementation of the Australian scenario (Canberra did not enter into a single trade agreement with Brussels, so the exchange of goods takes place mainly under the rules of the World Trade Organization). All these messages with which London fills the information space serve as preparation for the main battle on the negotiating front. At least, this scenario was implemented last year, and Johnson is undertaking similar political maneuvers this year.

Thus, the current negotiations will probably end without result. Such news always puts downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair – regardless of the dollar's health. Therefore, in my opinion, sales are still relevant for the pair, despite the impulsive corrective growth at the beginning of the trading week.

From the technical point of view, the price on the daily chart is located on the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and the trend indicators have not formed any clear and unambiguous signals. If the pair does not break the 1.2500 mark (and most importantly – does not gain a foothold over it), this will also indicate the priority of the downward direction. In this case, you can consider short positions with the first goal of 1.2360 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on D1) and the main goal of 1.2260 (a five-week price low that coincides with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe).

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