Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The AUD/USD pair has picked up from its Fibonacci 50% support of the rally between 0.7070 and 0.7280, at the 0.7170 levels as seen here. It is quite possible that the retracement is complete and that prices could rally towards fresh highs. But recommendations are to initiate long positions around the 0.7150 levels, considering the risk/reward ratio. Besides, note that 0.7150 is the Fibonacci 0.618 support and the past resistance turned into support come in there. Immediate support is seen at the 0.7160 levels, followed by 0.7070, while resistance is seen at the 0.7280 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now, look to go long around the 0.7150 levels.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The NZD/USD pair picked up from the expected price levels around 0.6530 on Friday. Today the pair has made an intraday high at the 0.6580 levels and is pulling back again before the rally could resume. Please note that the bullish bounce has come at a trend-line support and also the Fibonacci 0.786 support of the rally between 0.6500 and 0.6600 levels earlier. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk around the 0.6500 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at the 0.6510 levels (interim), while resistance is at 0.6600. Please note that a push above the 0.6600 levels would accelerate towards the 0.6715 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at 0.6500, target is 0.6700

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of US dollar Index for November 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The US dollar index was pushed higher to the level of100.30 before pulling back lower. The index is trading at 100.16 now, we expect it to drop lower and break the immediate trend-line support and the level of 99.65 subsequently. We need to see a breakout below 99.65 to confirm a short on rally trade setup going ahead. It is therefore recommended to remain flat now. Immediate support is seen at 99.65 followed by 99.30 and lower, while resistance is seen at 100.30 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat looking for an opportunity to go short.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/USD pair dropped lower to the level of 1.0560 during the day before pulling back towards 1.0585. There is no doubt that pair remains vulnerable to bears, but it is too late to initiate fresh short positions here. Moreover, a bullish divergence seen in the higher time frames (not shown), indicates that a turn is near. We need to see a breakout above at least 1.0640 before turning bullish, and trade with confidence. It is hence recommended to remain flat now. Immediate support is seen at 1.0550, while resistance is seen at 1.0640.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat looking for an opportunity to initiate long positions.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be trading around the 1.5470 levels for now, might be looking to drop lower to the 1.5370/80 levels before resuming its rally. Bulls are expected to remain in control until the 1.5280 levels remain intact. The rally from 1.5280 to 1.5525 levels is expected to retrace lower to its Fibonacci 0.618 levels at 1.5380, before it resumes towards new highs. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and look to buy at lower levels. Immediate support is seen at the 1.5380 levels followed by 1.5280, while resistance is seen at the 1.5570 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 30, 2015

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Trading recommendations:

  • The market has been moving between 1.0615 and 1.0543. Consequently, we expect the following scenarios:
  • First outlook: buy (buy limit) above 1.0543 with the first target at 1.0666, it might resume towards the first resistance at 1.0615 in order to test the weekly pivot point;
  • Second outlook: look for further downside with the targets at 1.0563 and 1.0540 targets below the level of 1.0615. Also, it should be noted that the new double bottom will set at the level of 1.0543.

Notes:

  • Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
  • We expect a new weekly range about 249 pips.
  • Risk of 166 pips must make profit of 249 (a risk to reward ratio of 1:1.5 is recommended)
  • As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the previous day had huge volatility.
  • Volatility: 85.50, therefore the market indicates the higher volatility.
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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 30 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair dropped lower to the 129.60/70 levels before pulling back sharply again above the 130.00 levels on Friday. The pair produced a doji/pin bar candlestick pattern on Friday and might follow it up with a bullish morning star today. The pair is trading at the 130.15/16 levels for now, just near a trend line resistance. A break above and subsequent rally at the 131.00 levels are now required to induce confidence on the long side. It is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for further evidence to go long. Immediate support is seen at the 129.66 levels, while resistance is seen at the 131.00 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now, watching to go long after a break of 131.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for November 30 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold had broken below the cone consolidation last week and dropped to print fresh lows at the $1,052.00 levels, beyond our expectations. The metal is trading close to its multi-year resistance turned into support area around $1,030.00 now. As depicted here, resistance is seen at the $1,080.00 levels and immediate support could be close to the $1,030.00 levels. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now as it is too late to go short and might be still early to enter buying. Bears are still in control for now until the $1,080.00 level remains intact.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for November 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be trading at the $14.11 levels for now, holding above its recent lows at $13.93. The metal has just went towards $14.40 levels last week before dropping, and the level of $13.93 holds well. A bullish reversal could be possible soon. It is recommended to remain flat for now until enough proof is seen. Immediate support is seen at the $13.93 levels, while resistance is seen at the $14.80/90 levels. Bullish divergence is seen in larger time frames, indicating that a potential turn around could be near.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 30/11/2015

Global macro overview for 30/11/2015:

Crude prices have been decreasing for much of the year as a supply glut, geopolitical developments around the world and strong dollar continue to keep the black gold under the pressure. Energy companies have been steadily cutting costs, projects, and jobs to cope with falling revenues as a result of lower oil prices. The OPEC meeting press release is scheduled for Friday and commodity traders will be looking forward for this meeting as there might be a slight change in the overall OPEC policy towards crude prices. Remember that if we take into the account the last week's remarks of the Saudi Arabian minister for petroleum and mineral resources about Saudi Arabian readiness to cooperate with other oil producers to stabilize the market, the OPEC meeting news might be even more important.

From a technical point of view, the crude oil is trading just below the important technical resistance at the level of 43.44. Any breakout higher would directly expose the level of 45.11 for a test. The support is seen at the level of 41.67 and 40.39.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 30, 2015

Weekly technical analysis of GBP/USD:

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Overview:

  • The market of the GBP/USD pair was steady because the trend has been moving only downwards for a while. The major resistances have been placed at the levels of 1.5085 and 1.5053. As a result, the GBP/USD pair might start showing signs of a bearish market at the level of 1.5085, which represents the weekly pivot point. In other words, it will be a good sign to sell below the price of 1.5085 with the first target of 1.4975 in order to test the weekly resistance 1. Moreover, if the pair breaks the first support 1.5085, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.4975. Then, it will call for the downtrend to continue with its bearish movements towards 1.4943 to form a new double bottom on the H1 chart. Thus, the level of 1.4943 will act as support this week. So, it is providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at 1.4975 for correction. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed above the weekly pivot point (1.5085).
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Gold analysis for November 30 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of $1,052.56. In the daily time frame, I found a supply bar and rejection from the SMA10. Our strong support around the levels of $1,075.00-$1,080.00 has become strong resistance (changing polarity) now. In the M30 time frame, we can observe low activity (low volume) and I found intraday trading range between the price of $1,061.20 and the price of $1,052.65. Next strong daily support is seen around the level of $1,046.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,057.35

R2: 1,057.75

R3: 1,058.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,056.05

S2: 1,055.65

S3: 1,055.00

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold since I saw a breakout of the diagonal trend line. Watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/NZD analysis for November 30, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6112. The short-term trend is downward. The major 22-day trading range (re-distribution) support at the level of 1.6150 was broken last week. In the H4 time frame, our strong resistance at the level of 1.6240 successfully held. Watch for potential selling opportunities. The first support level is found at 1.6085. If the price breaks the level of 1.6085 in a high volume, it will confirm the further downward continuation and potential testing of the level at 1.5730. According to the Wyckoff research I wrote major points: SC - Selling climax AR - Automatic rally ST - Secondary test UT - Up thrust UTAD - Up thrust after distribution LPSY - Last point of supply SOW - Sign of weakness

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6230

R2: 1.6260

R3: 1.6310

Support levels:

S1: 1.6140

S2: 1.6110

S3: 1.6065

Trading recommendations : Intraday selling opportunities are preferable. The first support level is found at 1.6085. According to the daily time frame, the profit level is seen at 1.5720.

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Global macro overview for 30/11/2015

Global macro overview for 30/11/2015:

An important set of news scheduled for release in the coming week might cause more volatility in the forex market as the beginning of December will bring plenty of economic data and monetary policy statements. Australia, Canada, and Europe will issue rate statements, and the US is expected to release the NFP report on Friday together with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) press conference. The most important data from the eurozone will come on Thursday, December 3, when the ECB announces the rate statement at 1:45 pm GMT. The NFP report will be released on Friday, December 4, at 2:30 pm GMT.

The EUR/USD pair had been under pressure all last week as the market still expects that ECB will deliver rate cut/QE extension on its meeting in Thursday. Any failure to convince the market on the commitment of the central bank could result in a reversal and appreciation of the single currency. The support is seen at the level of 1.0565 and next resistance is seen at the level of 1.0604.

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USDX technical analysis for November 30, 2015

The US dollar index is grinding higher and higher but the momentum is declining. The US dollar index should make a downward corrective move soon before the next FOMC meeting. This is not the time to be long on the dollar. First we need to see a pullback.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Red lines - bearish divergence

The US dollar index remains in a bullish trend as the price is still above the Ichimoku cloud and inside the bullish channel. Support is found at 99.60-99.40. Red lines show how the stochastic is not following the index to new highs. This is a bearish divergence sign.

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Blue lines - bearish wedge

In the daily chart, we observe a bearish wedge formation as the daily stochastic is still at overbought levels. This is not the time to be bullish the US dollar index. This is the time to take profits and raise protective stops for long positions.

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Gold technical analysis for November 30, 2015

On Friday, gold price broke the triangle formation we mentioned last week and moved closer to our target area of $1,050-40. Gold is oversold sending bullish divergence signals and a bounce towards at least $1,105 is expected.

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Red lines - triangle broken downwards

Blue line - bullish divergence

Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. Triangles usually precede the last move of a trend. Stochastics have not reached a new low as the price did and this provides a bullish divergence. Gold price is expected to bounce towards at least $1,105 where the 38% Fibonacci retracement is observed.

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Yellow line - long-term resistance

Red lines - bullish wedge

The weekly chart shows us how the price has approached the lower wedge boundaries. Stochastic is also at oversold levels. Each time stochastic reaches these levels in the weekly chart, a strong bounce follows. That is why I'm saying that this is not the time to be short or sell gold.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 30, 2015

General overview for 30/11/2015 07:40 CET

An Ending Diagonal pattern is almost completed and an uptrend should resume as soon as the wave (c) blue is terminated. Any breakout above the intraday resistance at the level of 130.78 is first indication of a medium-term bullish reversal in progress.

Support/Resistance:

129.33 - WS1

129.64 - Intraday Support

130.18 - Weekly Pivot

130.47 - Intraday Resistance

130.71 - WR1

130.78 - Intraday Resistance

131.57 - WR2

132.06 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing buy orders from current market levels with SL below the level of 129.64 and TP at the level of 130.18 and then at 130.78.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 30, 2015

General overview for 30/11/2015 07:20 CET

Upward wave development does not look completed yet as there are some internal sub-waves missed. A target is still seen at the level of 1.3433, but the wave progression might extend beyond that level. The first hurdle for bulls will be the golden trend-line dynamic resistance and any breakout above will be first indication that bulls are taking control over market.

Support/Resistance:

1.3447 - WR1

1.3433 - Intraday Resistance

1.3362 - Weekly Pivot

1.3338 - Intraday Support

1.3290 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider playcing buy orders from current market levels with SL below the level of 1.3338 and TP at the level of 1.3433.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 30, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The US stock indices were mixed at Friday's shortened session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down by 0.1% to 17798, the S&P 500 added 0.1% to 2090, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.2% to 5127. Nymex crude oil lost 3.1% to $41.71 a barrel, gold dropped by 1.3% to $1,057 a troy ounce, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield declined to 2.213% from 2.232% during the previous session.

The U.S. dollar kept advancing as investors continued to bet the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates next month. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index gained 0.3% to 90.81. EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.0587, GBP/USD dropped 0.4% to 1.5033, while USD/CHF ran up to 1.0330 before settling 0.6% higher at 1.0298, and USD/CAD also gained 0.6% to 1.3371. The pair posted a rebound after touching as low as 122.27 Friday. It is trading around the 20-period intraday (30-minute chart) moving average, which stands above the 50-period one. Meanwhile the relative strength index stays above the neutrality level at 50, lacking downward momentum. The intraday outlook continues to be bullish, and the first upside target is set at 122.95 (around the high of Nov. 25) and the second one at 123.05. decline toward 122.25 (around Friday's low).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 122.95 and the second target at 123.05. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.25 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.00. The pivot point is at 122.50.

Resistance levels: 122.95 123.05 123.50

Support levels: 122.25 122 121.80

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 30, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. The pair posted a strong rebound on its last trading day and now seems to be forming an intraday bullish flag pattern. The relative strength index is above its neutrality area of 50 favoring a new rebound. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading upward. Hence, as long as 1.026 (a strong support base) holds on the downside, a further rise is more likely to occur towards 1.0330 and 1.0370.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0330 and the second target at 1.0370. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0220 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 1.0195. The pivot point is at 1.0260.

Resistance levels: 1.0330 1.0370 1.0410

Support levels: 1..0220 1.0195 1.0170

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 30, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade on a bullish bias. The pair is reversing up after breaking above its previous key resistance at 0.6575, which should now play the key support role. A triple bottom pattern has been validated calling for an intraday trend reversal. Both ascending 20- and 50-period intraday moving averages maintain a bullish bias. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is positively oriented. Further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 0.6575 at first. A breakout above this level would call for a further advance toward 0.6605.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6575 and the second target at 0.6605. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6490 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6460. The pivot point is at 0.6535.

Resistance levels: 0.6575 0.6605 0.6640

Support levels: 0.6490 0.6460 0.6430

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 30, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the pair is under pressure now. The pair stays below its key resistance at 184.95 and remains under pressure. Meanwhile, the intraday relative strength index lacks upward momentum. The first target to the downside is therefore set at the horizontal support and overlap at 184.15. A breakout below this level would open the way to further weakness toward 183.85.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 184.15. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 183.85. The pivot point stands at 184.90. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 185.50 and the second target at 186.

Resistance levels: 185.50 186 186.55

Support levels: 184.15 183.85 183

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 30, 2015

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Wave summary:

We can say a lot about this cross. A downtrend from 1.9114 persists with an ideal target seen at 1.5898 before recovery through minor resistance at 1.6377 indicating the bottom is in place and a new impulsive rally towards 1.8020 and above has begun.

A breakout above 1.6460 will confirm the bottom and the rally to 1.8020, but for now the downtrend still dominates the picture and still calls for a test of 1.5898.

Trading recommendation:

We are still looking for a EUR buying opportunity at 1.5925 or upon a breakout above 1.6377 (one order done cancels the other).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 30, 2015

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Wave summary:

We continue to expect a bottom being found anytime now for a rally back to 132.50 before the next turn lower. In the short term, we need a breakout above minor resistance at 130.32 to confirm that wave [iii] has ended and [iv] is unfolding towards 132.50.

However, as long as minor resistance at 130.32 holds firm, we must accept the downside pressure to continue, but the downside potential does look limited from here.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 130.08 with stop placed at 129.08. If you are not long EUR already, then buy on the breakout above 130.32 and place your stop just below the lowest point seen.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 30, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic newsom the Italian Prelim CPI m/m, German Prelim CPI m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m is due to be released .The US will publish economic data on the Pending Home Sales m/m and Chicago PMI. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0629.

Strong Resistance:1.0622.

Original Resistance: 1.0612.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0602.

Target Inner Area: 1.0577.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0552.

Original Support: 1.0542.

Strong Support: 1.0532.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0525.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 30, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on the Housing Starts y/y, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, and Retail Sales y/y. The US will unveil some economic data on as the Pending Home Sales m/m and Chicago PMI. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 123.44.

Resistance. 2: 123.20.

Resistance. 1: 122.96.

Support. 1: 122.66.

Support. 2: 122.42.

Support. 3: 122.18.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 30, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD merely consolidated to the downside – in the context of a downtrend. The support line at 1.0550 would be tested soon and it could even be breached to the downside. The support line at 1.0500 is thus the potential target for the week.

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USD/CHF: Since this pair is going above the big support level at 1.0000, it has moved upwards by 300 pips testing the resistance level at 1.0300. A Bullish Confirmation Pattern is very strong in the market, and further bullish movement is anticipated, especially in the face of the latest outlook for the US dollar (as well as the CAD).

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GBP/USD: The cable moved downwards by 140 pips last week closing below the distribution territory of 1.5050. Yes, it is highly possible that the current bearish bias would be sustained, because an outlook for the GBP/USD pair (including GB pairs) is gloomy for December 2015. The price is likely to drop further by at least 150 pips.

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USD/JPY: A bias in this currency trading instrument has become neutral in the near term owing to the fact that the price merely traded sideways last week. A breakout to the upside or to the downside is definitely expected this week, which would either take the price below the demand level of 122.00 or above the supply level of 123.50. A breakout above the supply level of 123.50 is more likely because the outlook for the USD is bright.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY paur has shown its determination to keep on moving downwards. The bias is bearish and this would continue as long as the EUR is weak. The price looks ready to break the demand zone of 130.00 to the downside. Only a very strong weakness in the JPY could reverse the trend.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 30, 2015

On the H1 chart, the USDX has been moving into a bullish bias above the 200 SMA, with a focus placed around the resistance level of 100.24, which is the nearest supply zone in the short term. That moving average is still favoring to bulls and we are still waiting for a breakout higher towards the resistance zone of 101.01. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 100.24 / 101.01

H1 chart's support levels: 99.80 / 99.25

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 100.24, take profit is at 101.01, and stop loss is at 99.48.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 30, 2015

GBP/USD continues to perform declines on a short-term basis, as the H1 chart is showing weakness below the 200 SMA. Now, the support level of 1.5031 is challenged by the bearish force and when a breakout happens there, then we could expect another fall towards the price zone of 1.4982. However, we recommend to wait for a lower low pattern formation.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5062 / 1.5100

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5031 / 1.4982

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is found at 1.5031, take profit is at 1.4982, and stop loss is at 1.5080.

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